10:39 – Johan No.1
I really like that, Jario, RU does everything in its psyops to dehumanize Ukraine but there are endless stories that touch the heart.
People probably have a hard time accepting five-year-old children who have been tortured, raped, and finally murdered in front of their mothers who are then released, or that soldiers in captivity have been raped for two years and castrated. They see it as something negative instead of being moved and engaging when they see pictures of raped and then torture-murdered girls in early teens lying naked in a big pile, not to mention the film where a prisoner of war was castrated in front of laughing Russian soldiers.
What probably hits deep and works are all those human fates with remaining families where small children lay flowers on the fallen father’s (or mother’s) grave. We usually call them allergenic.
There is plenty for the media to draw from and re-humanize Ukraine.
I think “bordellukrainarna” was an excellent example of dehumanization.
12:26 – Johan No.1
Yesterday the living genius and padel player ErikG took the thread by storm and posted a RUMINT that RU is starting to evacuate LV from Crimea.
It has long looked like RU is neglecting the Dnipro front and if UA has now opened up a threat on the northern front then something must give and possibly if you believe the RUMINT it will be Crimea first.
The two alternatives we discussed when the Black Sea Fleet moved were
-evacuate something from Crimea
-supplies to Crimea.
Then when a Ropucha entered Sevastopol without being sunk, the radar started spinning wildly.
Because if you evacuate the air defense, you probably don’t expect many more years on Crimea when the carpet bombing spreads.
Three knocked-out S300 and S400 batteries in one night and 4 radars with 10 ATACMS I think paint the picture I am trying to convey – RU has hopelessly lost the strategic bombing war already.
A total of five (5) air defense systems knocked out yesterday.
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1800102001747034212?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Last week Pantsir and TOR were knocked out and BUK probably goes down from time to time so their entire tech platform for air defense is completely inadequate and incapable even of self-defense.
Air defense is not infinite but ammunition for HIMARS and missiles is if they continue with 1 missile – 1 hit.
Just imagine if it was a stalemate with the arch-enemy Norway where they stand in ancient hats and peer over the edge of a trench with their bloodshot goat eyes, but every week five high-value targets are blown up all over the country – that would quickly become unsustainable, right?
Crimea is already a walking dead.
Then we all understand that Ukraine, if they want, can pull a Grom 2 in the Kremlin.
The best-defended airports have already been targeted and there is no further air defense capability to pull out of the hat.
Russia has already fired missiles at the GUR headquarters and known gathering points for NATO personnel so they have escalated the conventional missile war to 100%
I know what I believe is holding Ukraine back here but that is my personal opinion.
Lenin’s mausoleum would be another fun target to pull a Grom 2 on.
Now that the media has either completely dropped the UA war and only sporadically posts Russian propaganda texts, this should not be underestimated – Ukraine can bomb the country Russia back to the Stone Age without them being able to do anything about it.
And Russia cannot do the same with Ukraine because they get 95% shot down.
Even tactical nuclear weapons would likely be shot down to a large extent.
That is how it looks de facto even though the pessimists are worried.
According to Google,
RU had 56 S400 “full systems” (16 to 18 battalions) and 125 (battalions) X 8 “launch systems” (individual firing units) of S300.
171 TOR, 290 BUK and 200 Pantsir units have been built in total including export.
They have lost 836 which are probably individual firing units?
Consider here that this is all the country Russia has and it must cover from northern Finland to Vladivostok as well as Kaliningrad and probably they have systems in Belarus.
We know from before that they were low when they emptied Kaliningrad of air defense and we know that they have prioritized protecting air bases and high-value targets.
Probably many systems are non-operational, it is after all a fairly advanced system. If one has the energy, one could probably check if Covert Cabal has done any analysis on air defense in depot.
Then I think the personnel often get killed if they are mounted in the vehicles and air defense operators should have a long lead time to train up.
We discussed early on that in the Russian army there was reverse Darwinism and that the shortage was greatest among key personnel. Back in 2022-2023 when we guessed this it was easy to dismiss but now we see it all the time. Artillery that does not move, tanks that barely manage to move in terrain and the units have just become a group of soldiers ordered to go in one direction.
Brain-drain is enormous and our guess was right, again.
Wagner as instructors can probably train shooting adequately but vehicle drivers, pilots, artillerymen and air defense and radar operators take time.
Then the Russians have not succeeded in using their “uber for artillery” which they actually have but it is too technically complicated for them to handle.
In exceptional cases we have seen shorter lead time to deployment which is worrying but overall they have been incapable of it.
We also see T54 in combat now which must reasonably be the bottom of the stockpiles or do we have some lovely explanation model for that like when T62 arrived at the fronts?
RU is starting to run out of T72B which are their staple vehicle.
New production in all systems is actually negligible.
Ukraine’s capability is constantly rising sharply and they are getting better at requesting the right weapon systems that complement what they have and using the whole palette.
Their “uber for artillery” is said to have 2 minutes to deployment.
Russia is thus about to get a thorough beating in a decent war here. I understand that all troll accounts have now been ordered to push that they are at war with the West.
Then that the West is still completely inept and runs their Chamberlain doctrines that have never worked is slowly becoming secondary.
But RU will try to escalate globally now, the better it goes for Ukraine the more they will escalate until the war is won.
We have now seen the squadron that arrived in Cuba with a zircon missile carrier and a nuclear submarine.
Do you know why they can escalate?
Because we have not yet reached the point where no one likes a loser.
When Russia has been beaten, the entire BRIICS will become the pals who betray and pretend that Russia does not exist.
I CANNOT understand this, Ukraine is screaming blue to win the war and the West has held them back for 2.5 years.
Now in June 2024, the USA has decided that the “Azov Battalion” may have weapons manufactured in the USA…
From SVT
“USA lifts arms ban for the Azov Battalion
The USA will lift its ban on the controversial Ukrainian military unit Azov Battalion using American weapons, according to the US State Department.”
Isn’t it enough that Putin is slowly starting to get a majority in the EU parliament?
All the evidence is there on Russian election interference, murder, subversive activities and so on – everything is known.
We know that Wagner is in half of Africa trying to start civil wars and this will become a huge problem for the West going forward.
Theutenberg is an old cannonball from the Cold War and we discussed his revelations a lot in the Skalman thread so for me he has high credibility. The Foreign Ministry was infiltrated.
https://x.com/theutenberg/status/1799819189651427585?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/theutenberg/status/1799733563522445516?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then I think the EU election clearly shows that politicians say what they think you want to hear before an election. When it comes to support for Ukraine, you have to look at what is not said and not done regarding those who claim to support Ukraine.
Now the funny accent Scholz and the man with the hairstyle that would make any 60-year-old fall, Macron, are up for discussion again and luckily I am consistent.
The angle is that Macron talks but Germany does more, the more Macron goes against the current line the more criticism there is, some correlation.
There was a list that said 30 Cersar but Ukraine also gets 70 newly manufactured ones in addition to those delivered second hand – should probably be counted.
Then the French have sent Scalp and JDAMS in large quantities and they manufacture new ones and send 50 JDAMS per month.
And SAMPT and certainly radar, at least the one UA buys from Rafale.
And now there will also be Mirage, 12 in total
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1799812229103272172?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Many other countries, including Germany, are placing orders for equipment for their own defense now but France has dedicated 100% to UA in its arms production. Yes, they get paid for it but other countries do not let Ukraine order at all.
This one is interesting, the USA scraps more per month than they have sent to UA. 600 Bradleys are to be scrapped, for example.
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1800163831844339835?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And I..el wants to sell a lot of used helicopters to Argentina – Ukraine anyone?
https://x.com/sa_defensa/status/1800153536959033681?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then Macron understood when it was time to step into the spotlight but if he had not done so, UA probably still would not have fired into the northern oblasts and if he applies the right pressure maybe the F-16s will come earlier. He is simply pushing forward.
Scholz has been negative and braking in order – support, offensive weapons, tanks, fighter jets and missiles.
Until very recently, according to Scholz it was violent escalation if Ukraine was allowed to shoot back at the northern oblasts while Macron said “vive la france – go for iiiit”.
The USA got Scholz on the de-escalation line and Macron has thrown away the script. It would have been easier for Macron to stay in the background, right? France as a country is not exactly threatened.
Now that Macron is pushing, the USA is forced to lift the bans earlier than they had planned.
I also think the RU air force is on the decline, SU25 losses have been high recently and that coincided with ammunition deliveries so not even Manpads did UA have 😐
3000 FAB bombs are dropped per month over Ukraine and they are dropped by the newer models which exist in the hundreds. Probably it is a heavily worn aircraft fleet now and the one that crashed in RU is probably a sign of that?
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kumuaf2eup23
But… it seems to be only a dozen F-16s unfortunately so the total dominance does not materialize, 1.5 years since the decision was made and 10 are delivered this summer. It does not feel like the West has prioritized this madly, right?
And above all, I find it hard to understand why Gripen could not coexist with 10 F-16s which will also be at some base west of the border. Gripen could probably have operated the road bases in Ukraine?
But we no longer discuss that.
Major riots in France, the left has gone bananas over the right’s election victory. If you ask me, RU has France as a prioritized target right now and is trying everything to get rid of the not-so-little cheeky Macron who threw away the script.
There is full armageddon in the northern oblasts which is welcome, it did not even take a week after the USA lifted the ban.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1799821146147139782?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The USA can if they want, here is their plan for Taiwan – Hellscape
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1800316606246948972?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then all credit to Scholz for this very clear message, the suit suits you again 👍
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1800448676592263244?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I believe the Germans’ new Panther tank has much of this incorporated but this is how the Chinese feel about the tank’s role in the future.
https://x.com/clashreport/status/1800057377925845468?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
SU-25 drops French JDAMS, a good combo
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1799925287381037130?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Apparently AWACS was taken out by both S200 and Patriot, first this one came and then the USA immediately announced that Patriot had indeed shot one down.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1799868540138242240?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Like calm elevator music in a light blue elevator with yellow accents simply put, let’s summarize the day, praised be the flowers.
12:46 – Johan No.1
The USA and Germany made the mistake of believing that a negotiated solution was a way forward – that it would lead to de-escalation.
I think Russia has very clearly shown its intention here and that the only thing that can be on the table is the 1991 borders and a magic line to the east.
Yes, we have very little say, the computer in the parents’ basement is mine and what pizza I want to eat 😀
There is another aspect to this – if there are too many guest workers in the army, they will eventually discover that they can take over the country. It would not be the first time in world history in that case. Putin is really in trouble.
13:17 – MatsExtrude
👍 Just send more, simply, now Russia is soon down and out!
13:34 – Johan No.1
It has probably mainly been a serious attempt at an offensive in several places from RU side for a few months now as losses have skyrocketed and Kharkiv was included. In the beginning, UA was weak up there and they probably expected more success.
We know they went all out with an offensive in northern Luhansk but it didn’t happen, they have attacked near Avdiivka and Bakhmut and near Vuhledar again. And then on the southern front – near the Dnipro and the bulges.
Sumy should get going provided RU does not go into defense again, I think so too 👍
Yep, I interpret it as the pressure is high on results and that everyone has moved forward.
13:35 – Johan No.1
Putin is lying and whining down and out.
14:40 – Johan No.1
The Quran burnings had a Russian sender, MSB has confirmed.
The problem is that the West has now (recently) been thrown out of Africa in a cloud of colonial guilt so no politician with a bit of survival instinct will dare to go there again.
Russia has paved the way to quietly take over country after country in Africa where they support the worst dictator or most violent rebel leader and plunge the country into war. Afterwards, they can quietly get rich on natural resources and then sell weapons and protection to the country.
Wagner thrives like a fish in water with unlimited rapes down to children and as many murders as they want. There are no legal systems there and they do as they please. We know from Ukraine that the pattern is – torture, rape and finally murder in the most deliberate way to make the victims suffer as much as possible.
If nothing is done, Africa will go through its worst period ever is my guess and I just hope Angola manages to stay out but they have historically been street-smart.
The first Western country that tries to intervene will get demonstrations on their neck that they are trying to recolonize Africa.
And absolutely NO ONE including the UN will point at Russia in all this.
It is completely incomprehensible how Russia can be the white spot for all these organizations but you get far with bribes. However, the West, which funds all these organizations, should take hold of this.
10:19 – Johan No.1
I saw a tweet from the person in question who used “bordellukrainarna” (brothel Ukrainians), a hen who probably identifies as a woman.
Back in March 2022, she was one of those who believed that the Ukrainians were not real refugees and that it was unfair that they got free SL cards when refugees from Syria did not get them in 2015.
Then it became the whole thing that they were treated better because they were white.
(It is interesting in this context that Ukrainians as a refugee group have received extremely little support from our support functions and have largely had to manage on their own, maybe that has something to do with it?)
If anyone thought that “bordellukrainarna” was her first opinion on the matter.