13:41 – MatsExtrude
👍
Hope they have soon thrown the Russians out up there by Belgorod, it would be nice to see them march into Russia and cause real chaos.
15:03 – Johan No.1
Considering what they have gathered, it reveals quite a lot about their intention.
07:30 – Johan No.1
SU-34 has crashed in Russia 💥
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1800382357288960404?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
07:32 – Johan No.1
Only number two 😎
11:43 – Johan No.1
The Ropucha in Sevastopol that has not been sunk is highly interesting, Sevastopol is basically a shooting range for Ukraine and RU is sending a prioritized target there that survives for three days?
Then there was the rumor about a sinking that disappeared immediately but that was probably gone in eastern Crimea?
I phrased myself a bit poorly regarding death (prepared to die) yesterday and got clarification from Papperspåse who is good at this death stuff, they are and have been ready to sacrifice themselves for a free Ukraine, that’s what I meant to write 😀
They are thus highly motivated soldiers who are prepared to complete the task in the best way they can even if it means falling. Yes, it works wonders to know that medevac is available.
Now to the northern front because it’s starting to look really exciting there.
Lineup red, front sector Kharkiv.
18th MRD which is an established division, has seen combat before and has been one of the spearheads down from the northern front has presumably taken heavy losses. Reinforced with 217th airborne.
47th Tank division which is also an established division has fought at Vovchansk.
Then 44th CAA with 72nd and 69th MRD – this seems to be a newly formed unit that has presumably been sacrificed.
Various territorials, a Kadyrovite, 155th marine infantry, and 2nd Spetznaz
These were well over 30,000 strong and they have lost just over half and about 15,000 remain – I’m just guessing.
44th AC is newly formed, belongs to the strategic reserve, soldiers without combat experience who do not master combined arms warfare at all. They have a strap for their personal weapon so they don’t forget it.
They have support from a total of four (4) artillery brigades.
So just over half the force are substandard units and half the force are more competent.
The question is who have gone and died in the past weeks?
And the question is which army is handling border security between Troitske – Vovchansk, 11th AC or 6th CAA
These units have attacked for weeks with 8:1 losses against UA defense.
Lineup red, front sector Sumy.
Here RU is said to have gathered around 20,000 according to highly unconfirmed rumors, I have no information here but it’s probably another CAA plus a couple of assigned brigades and artillery maybe?
I’m keeping an eye on Sumy, loose rumor about an offensive turned into reconnaissance fighting but it’s done for some purpose. Probably fewer than 20,000 in that area if you guess but too little information.
Lineup blue – Kharkiv.
Behind Vovchansk UA has 8 brigades of which most are elite units with 1-2 years of combat experience and can presumably fight in larger units, effective maneuver brigades like 82nd Airborne, NG Spartan, 71st Jaeger, 52nd motorized, 36th marines and 42nd Mech.
Then they have a forest of battalion-sized units totaling 13. Everything from volunteer battalions to SOF and the marine corps.
It’s all elite units in the Vovchansk area.
RU has a total of 10 brigades of which most have probably already been beaten so a 1:3 advantage UA doesn’t sound unreasonable at all.
Behind Hlyboke there are 3 capable maneuver brigades and five battalion-sized units, SOF, reconnaissance etc.
And against them are seven RU units so it feels more like defense in that area is the plan.
Don’t make the mistake of thinking it’s 2023 – UA chose to attack with newly formed mech brigades but here are units that have seen everything and survived, all Darwinists and RU has every reason to be terrified.
Lineup blue – Sumy
Here we don’t know the size of the red team but UA has 6 brigades of which two are territorial and a full three mech and then four battalion-sized units. If RU has 20,000 in the area UA probably matches them numerically.
A total of two artillery brigades for the entire northern front.
Right now a deadly pre-attack bombardment is ongoing across the border. We have autumn 2022 all over again where RU did not expect to be targeted beyond a certain distance and staffs, ammunition depots, fuel supplies, staging areas and billets are now being shelled.
Nothing is field-worthy on the Russian side of the border because they haven’t needed to care since Putin had a deal with Scholz and Biden in all their evil.
You don’t change that in a snap and Ukraine has naturally bided its time and entered countless target coordinates into the Excel sheet.
It’s a carpet of death in the northern oblasts right now.
To me it feels like Ukraine could launch a violent offensive straight into the northern oblasts (Moominvalley) if they wanted, numbers and type of units suggest it’s possible.
If they intended to defend they would have done so at a numerical disadvantage and with an overweight of territorials and some special forces behind.
Considering how different the messages are about how Ukraine is allowed to fire across the northern border I don’t think a violent offensive straight towards Moscow is politically unlocked yet unfortunately.
Maybe another war-winning opportunity wasted because Putin would have a hard time politically handling Voronezh falling – very hard.
Since the Russians have invested in an offensive in the area the defense is probably neglected and remaining units have been driven hard Russian style.
I get completely tearful over the West’s constant finger-wagging but I’ve learned one thing over time – if it looks like a Western finger-wag it’s probably that, we find out after about half a year.
Is RU running low on IFVs and using the last tanks for mechanized combat?
Saw something about an attack with only 4 tanks which is interesting and losses suggest a small shift.
Previously it was 5 tanks and 25 IFVs in losses roughly.
Ukraine has actually carried out local counterattacks near Bakhmut recently if you noticed, both Chasiv Yar and Klischiivka. Good job by a country that supposedly couldn’t conduct offensives before 2025.
According to David D UA is attacking into Russia now but I don’t dare bet on that.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kujbpgtha322
Considering some comments maybe I need to clarify that the undersigned will keep pushing Putin’s and Xi Jinping’s quarrel a bit longer if that’s clear enough 😀
Xi Jinping has now really fired up and launched a violent broadside on his Twitter. Maybe some is lost in translation but this probably stung Putin.
这个小高跟微型地狱应该不会以为他能吓到我吧。我们是一个以饺子和幸运饼干为荣的国家，请坚持住。现在将不再为偶像崇拜者提供无人机部件。
Putin’s response didn’t take longer than 30 minutes, he got that upset and now he seems furious to the point of crying. Almost little fists drumming on the floor in anger.
Это вонючее дерьмо, с кем он думает, что тоже разговаривает. Никто не проявит неуважения к великому Путину и не выживет, спросите тысячи людей, которых я отравил в России. Мне не нужны ваши дурацкие дроны, мы поставили клетки для дронов на мотоциклы и побеждаем, прямо на вас, приколоть член.
This could end in just about any way, I don’t rule out nuclear weapons or Russia poisoning the Yellow River, everything is on the table now in this lightning-fast escalation.
Have you noticed that the US has started slow-walking F-16s again?
This is getting pretty tiresome actually 🤬
There is another explanation if one WILDLY speculates further – the US knows that UA will take off like a handful of ants dropped on the ground as soon as F-16s arrive and they can control F-16 deliveries but lost grip on Gripen. Could possibly have to do with the US wanting Ukraine to retake Crimea in 2024 and not attack straight up towards Voronezh?
Looking at the battle maps and fieldwork, the only logical thing is to attack at the northern front and conduct extensive amphibious operations between Kinburn Spit – Crimea, but the West has rarely been logical in this war and unfortunately Zelensky still has to ask Biden for permission, that is absolutely crystal clear.
The critical line is slipping even more.
Ukraine can always do like in 2023 and push forward anyway, but then there will be blood on Biden’s hands, children’s blood.
When the flanks start to wobble, RU is forced to move troops from other front sections along its enormous U-shaped front line, and UA’s strategic reserve of 13 brigades then stands waiting for their turn when an opening comes.
I can understand that the West really does not want to see a Ukrainian offensive that takes Voronezh in a week, but somehow this war must end, and unfortunately the West has steered Ukraine into bad choices throughout the war.
– In 2022, Zalizhny was forced to abandon his VDV killers.
– In 2023, Zalizhny was forced to attack with NATO doctrine where RU was strongest.
– In 2024, we have already heard that Ukraine will focus on Crimea, nothing else.
The trend is that it can go well, just not too well.
Russia has just significantly advanced its positions in the EU and can surely start blocking decisions going forward or push through insane decisions that are bad for the EU. The longer this war goes on, the worse it gets for us in the West – do our elected officials really not understand that?
Do you see how the debate is going in Sweden over one mandate switching from KD to MP?
That only 50% go and vote might have to do with the bad tone and mudslinging from virtually all parties?
My aversion to MP is, by the way, based on the closed nuclear power plants and this gentleman has calculated the total cost, 1000 billion SEK will be the bill. Thanks MP for doing what is best for Sweden 🙏
https://x.com/y_yadid/status/1799749805423665335?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
A quick end to this war is good for the West, our forges are already glowing hot and the West will rearm enormously over the next 10 years.
China cannot wage a blitzkrieg because they have India and Russia around them by land and the sea route they can forget, if they try with Taiwan they will learn the lesson lightning fast.
Then Putin’s latest red line about shooting Western weapons into Russia has had zero consequences as usual, his red lines can always be jumped on. Everyone who can do a bit of honest analysis knew that, but the West has hesitated about this far too long.
If Ukraine is allowed to attack straight into the northern oblasts, all focus will shift to solving that problem and RU will panic and pull troops from Ukraine.
Then if violent piracy and raids start from Kinburn Spit and eastwards, where many headquarters and other targets lie close to the coast, RU will be forced to focus on that too.
Both areas are poorly defended.
And then you strike at one of the fronts where RU is weakened and then RU’s command for the war will start sleeping really badly.
This one was a bit funny, Swedish urban combat so on topic
https://x.com/corporalolle/status/1799669947133489454?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
This one is completely off-topic but I laughed until I cried and want to give the thread a positive start to the day 🤣
https://x.com/weirddalle/status/1799011159347261850?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w