I think I have covered the USA now and the next theoretical moves RU can make, as well as that there is a separate thread for Trump becoming the next US president, and the hope for the USA was low anyway given how Biden has handled UA support.
Jario wrote a very good post under my short and fact-packed post yesterday and I absolutely believe that the EU’s position can partly be traced back to weak leaders in some places. It’s simply easier for a career to do nothing, and in times of long peace this is new mined ground to navigate, and Russian subversive activity is pressing hard. One misstep and the career is over, so the longer you can refrain from sticking your neck out the better.
Just look at how Sweden tried to navigate the Soviet threat during the Cold War, it is not easy.
However, I think that after 2.5 years there should have been some sobering up, which there has been, but the leaders of the free world are still very hesitant to go against the USA here, which is surprising to me.
I usually get thrown at me that the West has the best experts and security services so they have it under control and that the thread is nonsense. Now we are a bit lucky because there is Twitter and OSINT so we know exactly what the Russians are doing, and what they say they will do.
We also know the EU’s level of ambition – that Ukraine gets to use all weapons without restrictions in Russia. That is what the EU leaders want. Exactly the line we have pushed in the thread – we who know nothing.
But damn it, the EU keeps folding to the USA all the time and now we are in the area of pure self-preservation. Someone is standing and pouring gasoline on your house – what do you do? The leaders in the West back off with the water hose because a guy in a town two miles away calls and says so.
Time to think about the EU first maybe and stop following the USA, the USA is just like the bank – they are not your friend.
If one could explain the actions of the USA and the EU by saying it led to more world peace or something similar, it would be hard to argue against, but it is exactly the opposite – more war in the world because of this.
I cannot decipher the USA’s position, their motives are hidden and my best guess is that they want to break China or are thinking long-term and business. Gripen was obviously business. They have survived two world wars and a dependent EU is perhaps not entirely stupid.
Germany is easy – they have been infiltrated since reunification as they never filtered who would be employed in the administration and Scholz has strong support in his party for the line he is driving.
But the rest of Europe, all the leaders who first say they will send something that can be used against targets all over Russia and then after two days change their mind to that it cannot be used in Russia.
The leaders in the EU should reasonably understand that this war can develop further so that we ourselves get drawn into it, so it is pure self-preservation at this moment.
NO ONE can predict the future here, Ukraine could collapse tomorrow and the longer time goes the higher the risk that this becomes a bigger war.
The country that perhaps best understands how to balance Russia is Finland and “if you want peace prepare for war” has been their motto for all these years.
The EU should already have several brigades in the Baltics but they do not.
They should also have taken care of air defense in western Ukraine.
Regarding poisoning the water, it was tested in Boden in the 90s I think by the defense forces and it went better than expected. It took a while before it came out that the stomach flu outbreak was spelled I19 and was deliberate but so it was as far as I remember.
I am worried about increasing conflicts in the world. I was sitting watching movies about the Bush War in Angola the other night in a cloud of cheap whisky and a bag of bolognese chips and that country has had peace for a shorter time than they had war after Portugal left. Now not everything can be blamed on other nations, it was a power struggle internally in the country and then it became a proxy war that lasted until 2001 with short breaks.
Africa’s countries are the world’s most fragile and the signs are that more and more are heading towards civil wars or interstate wars which is deeply unfortunate.
MENA is also heading towards increased conflict and Lebanon is now being drawn in.
In Asia, everyone is forming against China as best they can.
This war has changed some of my “truths” that I believed were correct. The USA’s actions for example are very interesting and have led to a recalibration. We have long talked about how the USA and Germany “slowwalked” support but now it is quite clear to me that the USA is not your friend just like the bank is not your friend.
Some other things I have had confirmed.
A good measure of who you should have as pals is that you are not president for life. The constant rapprochement to Russia, Iran, China and other rogue states is hard to explain. Iran’s new president was described as reasonable in some media for example.
Then I tried to point out that people in Sweden who are constantly against our na@ist government and want eternal peace are doing Russia’s bidding and should think twice.
11:53
The Mechleons
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1812206896121528729?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I think I have covered the USA now and the next theoretical moves RU can make, as well as that there is a separate thread for Trump becoming the next US president, and the hope for the USA was low anyway given how Biden has handled UA support.
Jario wrote a very good post under my short and fact-packed post yesterday and I absolutely believe that the EU’s position can partly be traced back to weak leaders in some places. It’s simply easier for a career to do nothing, and in times of long peace this is new mined ground to navigate, and Russian subversive activity is pressing hard. One misstep and the career is over, so the longer you can refrain from sticking your neck out the better.
Just look at how Sweden tried to navigate the Soviet threat during the Cold War, it is not easy.
However, I think that after 2.5 years there should have been some sobering up, which there has been, but the leaders of the free world are still very hesitant to go against the USA here, which is surprising to me.
I usually get thrown at me that the West has the best experts and security services so they have it under control and that the thread is nonsense. Now we are a bit lucky because there is Twitter and OSINT so we know exactly what the Russians are doing, and what they say they will do.
We also know the EU’s level of ambition – that Ukraine gets to use all weapons without restrictions in Russia. That is what the EU leaders want. Exactly the line we have pushed in the thread – we who know nothing.
But damn it, the EU keeps folding to the USA all the time and now we are in the area of pure self-preservation. Someone is standing and pouring gasoline on your house – what do you do? The leaders in the West back off with the water hose because a guy in a town two miles away calls and says so.
Time to think about the EU first maybe and stop following the USA, the USA is just like the bank – they are not your friend.
If one could explain the actions of the USA and the EU by saying it led to more world peace or something similar, it would be hard to argue against, but it is exactly the opposite – more war in the world because of this.
I cannot decipher the USA’s position, their motives are hidden and my best guess is that they want to break China or are thinking long-term and business. Gripen was obviously business. They have survived two world wars and a dependent EU is perhaps not entirely stupid.
Germany is easy – they have been infiltrated since reunification as they never filtered who would be employed in the administration and Scholz has strong support in his party for the line he is driving.
But the rest of Europe, all the leaders who first say they will send something that can be used against targets all over Russia and then after two days change their mind to that it cannot be used in Russia.
The leaders in the EU should reasonably understand that this war can develop further so that we ourselves get drawn into it, so it is pure self-preservation at this moment.
NO ONE can predict the future here, Ukraine could collapse tomorrow and the longer time goes the higher the risk that this becomes a bigger war.
The country that perhaps best understands how to balance Russia is Finland and “if you want peace prepare for war” has been their motto for all these years.
The EU should already have several brigades in the Baltics but they do not.
They should also have taken care of air defense in western Ukraine.
Regarding poisoning the water, it was tested in Boden in the 90s I think by the defense forces and it went better than expected. It took a while before it came out that the stomach flu outbreak was spelled I19 and was deliberate but so it was as far as I remember.
I am worried about increasing conflicts in the world. I was sitting watching movies about the Bush War in Angola the other night in a cloud of cheap whisky and a bag of bolognese chips and that country has had peace for a shorter time than they had war after Portugal left. Now not everything can be blamed on other nations, it was a power struggle internally in the country and then it became a proxy war that lasted until 2001 with short breaks.
Africa’s countries are the world’s most fragile and the signs are that more and more are heading towards civil wars or interstate wars which is deeply unfortunate.
MENA is also heading towards increased conflict and Lebanon is now being drawn in.
In Asia, everyone is forming against China as best they can.
There have also been assassination attempts on Putin according to Budanov so the strategy to avoid escalation is already being counteracted internally by Russia.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kx65y3m4wo27
Here is Zelensky’s visit to the UK to meet all the EU leaders, on the agenda security and Ukraine.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/12/zelenskiy-due-in-uk-for-meeting-of-european-leaders-at-blenheim-palace
We always hear that we understand nothing in the thread but Romania’s president agrees with the thread.
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1812387554387247523?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
This war has changed some of my “truths” that I believed were correct. The USA’s actions for example are very interesting and have led to a recalibration. We have long talked about how the USA and Germany “slowwalked” support but now it is quite clear to me that the USA is not your friend just like the bank is not your friend.
Some other things I have had confirmed.
A good measure of who you should have as pals is that you are not president for life. The constant rapprochement to Russia, Iran, China and other rogue states is hard to explain. Iran’s new president was described as reasonable in some media for example.
Then I tried to point out that people in Sweden who are constantly against our na@ist government and want eternal peace are doing Russia’s bidding and should think twice.
Jan Eliasson should definitely think twice.
https://x.com/jankeliasson/status/1812189040940028219?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Or that Amnesty criticizes Finland for closing border crossings, they should think twice.
https://x.com/suomiperkele7/status/1811775947319677352?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
What has been considered a bit rebellious and human is starting to become destabilizing and probably needs to be addressed going forward.
Good news, RU is very short on artillery – 300 M46s which are 130mm caliber.
https://x.com/clashreport/status/1812192799342612752?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1812054129000202243?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And here are UA interceptor drones.
https://x.com/clashreport/status/1812225922247852168
But the FAB bomb droppers must go, FAB3000 has a 46m blast radius 😐
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1812390557622108275?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w