11:57 – Johan No.1
It should say the Autumn offensive 2022
12:41 – MatsExtrude
👍
One wonders if Putin has called Biden directly and issued threats about using nuclear weapons or some other escalation. It usually starts slow and then lets go, but this time when it comes to striking deep, it seems they don’t dare to give in.
Since they also manage to persuade the UK and others not to do anything seen as aggressive, one starts to wonder if there is something more beyond the usual sluggishness and cowardice. Something more than just Medvedev’s usual nagging.
Regarding the offensive, I of course hope for it, but right now I would be satisfied if they manage to stop Russia’s slow advance. Sooner or later they must reach their culmination point.
17:42 – Johan No.1
I’m becoming more and more pessimistic 😀
Now Zelensky has declared that a new peace proposal will be prepared by November…
17:46 – Johan No.1
It is my conviction that the developments have gone roughly as LW describes.
In the first days, enough pieces of information came in for it to look like that.
So yes, the government gives a tailored picture.
Now almost half of the EU has quickly had to retract statements that their weapons may be used on Russian soil or that they will send F-16s soon, so that the USA calls and stops free riders is not conspiratorial at all.
Then Kirby has been overly clear with the USA’s motives – it was impossible to misunderstand.
18:00 – Johan No.1
Zelensky intends to reshuffle the government and will prepare a new peace proposal by November.
That then presumably means we are past Ukraine’s 10-point list including the 1991 borders that Zelensky refused to give up despite the West cutting off all ammunition for almost a year.
Already at the beginning of this war, we concluded that territorial concession means a win for Putin no matter how small.
18:03 – Johan No.1
Have some dark thoughts about this but I think I’ll wait until Zelensky’s meeting with the EU leaders in the UK is over so I don’t sulk unnecessarily.
19:52 – Johan No.1
Russia has lost 50% of the territory conquered in Ukraine.
– In 2022, Ukraine was not allowed to encircle VDV at Kherson.
– In 2023, they were not allowed to invade Russia when the border was held by a dozen FSB officers.
– In 2023, they were not allowed to carry out the offensive they wanted.
– Spring 2023 – spring 2024, the West stopped delivering materiel.
– In 2023, they were not allowed to destroy refineries or oil depots, or export terminals.
– In 2024, they were not allowed to invade Russia.
– In 2024, they were not allowed to destroy Russian aircraft.
Meanwhile, Russia –
– gets to strike all targets in Ukraine.
– gets guarantees from the West for a bit of everything so they can optimize, for example no troops at the northern border and no fear of being attacked along their land border at all.
– gets rockets and drones from North Korea, Iran and China which they shoot everywhere.
– sells all their oil to the EU via India.
– gets to continue selling LNG to Europe.
– gets 70% of the parts for their rockets from the West.
That’s what reality actually looks like 😀
20:47 – Johan No.1
Was a reply to ODP but he disappeared 😲
Black magic.
11:44 – Johan No.1
The Mech lions
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1812116167617560749?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Everyone who has children can relate to this, the USA does not have children.
https://x.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1812238013893951596
Then we start with something French
https://x.com/SimonBorderline/status/1812419159164121096
If we now understand the motives behind the West’s actions a little better, Zelensky understands this too.
The USA will not change course completely in the near future and the risk is that Trump will do even less than Biden, who has consistently deliberately delayed support throughout the war. The USA is, just like the bank, not your friend.
Zelensky sees how all countries in the EU say “you may absolutely use all our weapons against targets in Russia no problemo” and then the USA calls and stops the party and everyone changes their mind.
Most recently, UA has entered the debate about Gripen again and contradicts the official Swedish version, again.
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1812474546710082008?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
It is reasonably priority 1 to unlock this but how?
War crimes, humanitarian disasters, ecocide and what else do not work – Ukraine has tested that and most recently the idea was that the war crime against the children’s hospital would unlock positions at the NATO meeting but it did not work at all. Not even fully logical arguments about international law and that the West has all the parts in Russian missiles worked on the USA.
Then they have tried to project strength – the spring offensive 2022 freed support for winter 2023, and the spring offensive 2023 was probably to avoid forced negotiated peace during the autumn (I think).
It has been 2.5 years and Red Storm has fallen, all Russian tactical missiles can be shot down with Patriot and not even without ammunition did Ukraine give up ground.
The meeting in the UK soon is reasonably a serious attempt by Zelensky to get the EU on board.
Because one thing is clear, if only someone who can project sufficient strength comes along, everyone will follow immediately.
Denmark has sent all the unit-equipped material they have and emptied their readiness stocks, the Baltics, Czech Republic and Poland have sent everything they can.
Macron has verbally sided with Ukraine and also sends a lot of material but he has become quiet lately when there was civil war between Islamists, left and right on the streets of Paris, somewhat coincidentally.
If Ukraine can get the EU to jointly drop geographical restrictions and send the material needed (only half of what was promised has been sent) then the war is won.
Another successful offensive is otherwise a given morale booster for the leaders in the EU but to get anywhere the diversionaries at Belarus and the northern front are quite important and that is exactly what the West is slowing down…
That Russia intends to continue straight into Europe as soon as they can is also already on the table – Putin et al. have told us this since 2022. So the consequences of doing nothing are known by the leaders in the EU.
Zelensky maybe should release information about the condition of Russia’s nuclear weapons to calm the EU that the USA is lying?
He maybe should highlight the Chinese threat and that China will increase its presence the longer the war goes on?
Trump is doing a good job alienating the USA and that he will now win is also a tailwind to play on for Zelensky.
One thing they absolutely should do is to highlight Russian subversive activities much more so that citizens in the West understand the extent – UA has good control and should push this much harder.
It actually seems that to a large extent it will be Zelensky’s job to try to untie this Gordian knot and get the leaders in the West to leave the USA’s line and take the consequences afterwards.
One thing is very clear to me – the longer time goes by the higher the risk that it escalates globally so the Ukraine war just becomes a pawn in a bigger game. Western leaders have also been highly variable in their support – all support can cease in 2025 or how, the probability of that is unfortunately high.
(no, someone exclaims but that was exactly what happened for a whole year after spring 2023).
Zelensky managed to persuade Poland to something they jointly thought could be pushed through and then the USA stopped it immediately – Zelensky is now actively working to get more help from individual states but the USA projects more strength and he comes out as a loser which has negative consequences for listening to him.
The USA actively opposes Zelensky’s attempts to liberate his country – this is not a small betrayal.
It is very clear to me that Ukraine is not allowed to take the war into Russian territory at the northern front. All USA statements about escalation have painted the picture of how they see the matter and invasion of Russia is with very high probability a no today.
So Ukraine’s offensive brigades have to stand where they stand and watch the opportunity slip through their hands…
We also do not know why refinery attacks have stopped but Ukraine continues its strategic bombing campaign and is now going after oil depots so it should be considered ongoing still. However, it would have been nice with a refinery in between so one knows the USA is not sabotaging that too.
A very exciting wildcard that is currently emerging is the heat in Ukraine, up to 50 degrees in the sun
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxb2ntvl4v2z
That paired with failing Russian logistics and that they drink poisoned water and get cholera is very promising.
85 soft vehicles that could not deliver water yesterday.
It seems worst down at the southern front and especially at the Dnieper since Ukraine has drone superiority down there and can put a wet blanket over all movements.
Then they reasonably have snipers along the entire Dnieper who take out all water carriers and the river is already polluted with an enormous amount of corpses.
It will remain warm for ten more days and reasonably it will be high summer in July and August – God help the strong.
I do not think lying low and hoping it gets better later is a good strategy at all, high risk. Everyone should know by now that Western support can cease overnight despite all promises.
This leads me to continued belief that Ukraine will try to carry out offensive operations during 2024 in the form they can, and get…
Acts of liberation in Russia should be given but then you probably have to sneak with it and convince the West that it is Russian liberation fronts that have carried these out themselves and nothing to do with UA.
Already today Ukraine has drone interceptors and stands at the top in the drone war. If China enters this then maybe RU has leveled the playing field in 2025 with China’s help, who knows…
The Russians’ supplies ARE running out, now Himarsed and Covert cabal have gone through the weapons and it is starting to sound empty for tanks and then we saw these 300 M46 artillery. Again – if they had the latest tracked howitzers it would have been those we saw on trains to the fronts.
MTLB are also short
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxco4zorf22x
There ARE also a number of milbloggers who have now started criticizing the war again despite mandatory underwear poisoning, so it is definitely something simmering here.
We can be quite sure that China has advanced its positions against Russia in Belarus, Serbia, Hungary, and Slovakia – which is also negative for Russia.
And above all – there is a positive bias from Russia after Putin removed all negativity from the milbloggers.
Ukraine has struck 17 high-value targets in two (2) weeks.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxcnq6kikd2p
And here are drones straight into a substation if you didn’t believe that Ukraine had anything to do with all the power outages last winter 😀
https://x.com/ukikaski/status/1812676849203630260?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
This in Voronezh must be an act of liberation, right?
https://x.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1812489873003041074
And here Ukraine drops JDAMS on front-line targets, big explosions and very violent Russian deaths.
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1812522457976173006
And Russia is finding it increasingly difficult to recruit for the war.
https://x.com/DefMon3/status/1812559498822971851
Meanwhile, retired F-16 pilots are ready to go as volunteers to Ukraine.
https://x.com/SairanenJan/status/1812245209759314128
Scotland has a fun tradition, anyone who can beat England they keep doing so in all cups and this time they went quite far. Sorry about the sender.
https://x.com/nocontextbrits/status/1812475998845169701?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/danielswedin/status/1812069833191641228?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Sorry for going further off topic but I’m curious, don’t all newsrooms that published the now quite famous picture of Trump have to pay the photographer?
Trump’s team will use it in the campaign and also pay?
Talk about a jackpot (right?).
https://x.com/AdrianDittmann/status/1812461907615564014
The warmth is very positive, the number of knocked-out rear functions likewise. The only thing really missing is offensive operations. The F-16 rumors are getting more frequent and correlate with everyone saying they are coming, so it’s not entirely unlikely that the first ones are on site maybe.
The quick observer also notes that Ukraine can drop JDAMS on the northern front and southern front which means their air force can operate, which means that RU LV and fighter cover are weak presumably.