13:17 – Johan No.1
I’m a bit dark right now, it came from the fact that the US is handling its strategic communication so extraordinarily badly 😐
If we are to speculate as I usually do about this, Ukraine is at the starting blocks for the 2024 offensive. Diversion at the northern front and the amphibious operations’ mother at the Dnieper and Crimea. They have been held back by deliberately delayed F-16s.
I have tried to point out that more and more Russian bloggers are now coming out and criticizing the war. It is not allowed and earlier bloggers were murdered for that audacity. These bloggers obviously know this so they must have some form of protection.
Then the acts of sabotage in Russia are on the rise, I think everyone has noticed.
13:38 – Johan No.1
Permission to use weapons against airbases beyond 100km is what is meant in the first link and there it is Biden who is actively holding back right now so the presidential election doesn’t have much bearing there?
Biden is already doing nothing today.
The connection “hot phase” and “completed” I don’t see how it can be linked to the US election?
RU can’t keep this up much longer so then he must be referring to UA offensive if it is to continue until the turn of the year ✊😀
However, it can certainly be Trump as president that the Russian officer meant when he aired that the war is over this year.
14:15 – MatsExtrude
Thanks for the yellow wall!
There are mixed messages from Ukraine. Budda went out a while ago and said basically that the situation is difficult but they have control and also that nothing major will happen until 2025. But with him you never know, he might mean that it’s only then they take Moscow.
Veni, vidi, vici, was that the time you managed to sneak past the bouncer and got into the pub?
The same evening your dog was a frequent writer here on the blog?
14:32 – Johan No.1
fggdhj
14:47 – MatsExtrude
Thanks, now I got that confirmed!
15:08 – Johan No.1
There are enormous mixed messages right now.
15:27 – MatsExtrude
Who should I believe, believe, believe when, believe when everything is like this.
But maybe it’s stupid to quote Dileva, he has probably become a vatnik.
Jokes aside, I hope they have a plan behind the statements and I suspect they are mostly part of propaganda both against the West and Russia.
I interpret Budda’s statement as that it could blow up anytime…😄
Appear weak when you are strong.
12:40 – Johan No.1
We are supposed to see what happens and draw our own conclusions, not accept ready-made analyses (except mine, which must be accepted without question) or statements. There are plenty of statements, but it is in action that one shows where one stands.
I want to give a shout-out to Mette in Denmark, she is a passionate UA supporter and Denmark has sent lots of unit-equipped materiel and emptied their emergency stocks, you know, the kind of thing Sweden cannot do, and when they had no more, they found ways to buy materiel for Ukraine. Denmark is a small giant.
Zelensky did what he could in Blenheim, the speech was a bullseye and he projected strength. Now it is up to the leaders in the EU to unite under the flag.
It was at least better than last year’s NATO meeting when Zelensky was called ungrateful, or this year’s NATO meeting when Putin could take notes on where Ukraine was not allowed to attack and where he could have his airspace protected.
I really want to get that flash on Twitter that drops among a hundred accounts that Ukraine has knocked out dozens of aircraft. Then we know it’s unlocked,
This is the single most important thing for Ukraine right now and if it doesn’t happen soon then the Blenheim meeting gave nothing other than everyone standing behind Zelensky 100% in words but not in action. Then there is a discrepancy between what is said and what is done.
Without beating the drum too much, I have also coined “veni vidi vici” but it is a bit forgotten today that I am the originator. The old man coined the phrase “more beer sausage with mustard” but I don’t think it’s used anymore except maybe in Kopparberg?
Now Zelensky is also out saying that the major fighting could end this year. We had that from a Russian officer as well, which we posted yesterday.
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1814059769482658100?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I am curious about what is going on, because to be able to say this Zelensky should do what he has previously said when he stated that the war could end this year – carry out offensives and retake ground to get the best possible negotiating position. Putin will have to try to negotiate tearfully for Belgorod and try to get his captured army corps out of Crimea.
And the West should give Ukraine permission to strike targets in Russia to get the best possible negotiating position against Russia – just as Zelensky says below.
-But does Zelensky believe that a bit of knocked-out aircraft will be enough for RU to be forced to retreat to the 1991 borders?
-Or has Zelensky dropped that idea now and is prepared to give up land?
-Or will the UA offensive sweep away the trench Russians as soon as the FAB bombs are gone by the turn of the year as someone believes 😀
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1813901290797429022?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Now Ukraine is on the defensive, they have not succeeded in retaking 50% of lost areas, collectively the West stops Ukraine from damaging Russia but Zelensky believes that the major fighting could be over within five (5) months provided the West remains determined. The devil is in the details here, what is the meaning of “over”.
What worries me a bit is that Putin might be on his way to talk the West into some kind of negotiation. I sincerely hope I am wrong. His trap will be to convince the West that he wants peace and then the West should be as West-smart as only they can and say “we’ll try and if it doesn’t work we’ll give Ukraine everything they need,” that would be giving Putin exactly what he desperately wants – a water break.
The West puts pressure on Ukraine and promises EU membership and then security guarantees. In a few years when EU membership is still dragged out and Ukraine is not in NATO because Hungary is blocking it, they might feel a bit cheated.
There is a lot of discussion from RU side about peace negotiations and at the same time they press everywhere FAR beyond their long-term sustainable capacity. Feels a bit like negotiation tactics with an end date because soon Putin’s army in Ukraine will be worn out and can be overrun.
Ukraine’s and the West’s negotiation tactics are a bit different – give up land and leave RU alone.
We have some indisputable evidence to consider – Russia has broken all agreements they have entered into with Ukraine over hundreds of years and their modus operandi is to ask for a water break to then start a new war as soon as they can, Lex Chechnya and Lex many other countries. It is indisputable.
We also know that if you put enough pressure on the country it tends to lead to internal unrest instead and then they forget their imperial ambitions. The country can also be divided into less threatening parts, Lex 1989.
NATO and many commanders in the West are open that Russia will attack another country in the EU or NATO within a maximum of five years and that Europe must rearm – these are statements all the time and it is not IF but WHEN. These are our experts and specialists conveying this to our politicians.
Right now it feels like the West will give Putin an out but at the same time prepare for him to attack again – for me this is the worst possible option both for Ukraine and also for the EU.
Poland, Finland, Ukraine and the Baltic states then effectively go back into a cold war.
Yes, it is good for the arms industry and it gives Western politicians a chance not to have to act now today in 2024 but that is all, and it will be ten times worse in a few years.
JD Vance has gone hard against China actually, a bit unexpected.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxmu7a4d6k2o
It is a strange situation where Ukraine has 3:1 in numbers on the northern front but still cannot do what they want and on other fronts it is going backwards because the FAB bomb droppers cannot be knocked out.
It is enough to do a map reconnaissance to understand that the best would be to encircle into Russia instead of attacking straight into the bulges on the northern front.
Exactly like this it was in 2022 when Zalizhny wanted to drive a wedge on the left bank of the Dnieper but the USA forced Ukraine to attack straight into prepared defenses in Kherson instead.
If UA had no intentions on the northern front they would have spread their units in defense instead and avoided losing ground.
UA has informed us that they have mobilized what they needed, they have a strategic reserve and they have received a lot of materiel even though Zelensky let it be known that 13 brigades lacked materiel which is a scandal and it makes one almost cry.
Then Zelensky has been clear that they get too few F-16s and too little air defense which is very unfortunate.
Our PBV302 are soon well into units, so we will get to see them and it will be quite a bit of nostalgia 😀
At focus areas like Bakhmut, Kharkiv, or northern Luhansk, the Russians are not advancing at all, but then in unexpected places there is movement.
RU is trying pretty much everywhere but they are far from having the numbers to do this.
Then their strategic reserve is now gone as they move units between different fronts for offensive operations.
I still think Kharkiv was to create a buffer zone and that has totally failed – Lupin’s third total failure in the war, he was behind the suicide-by-drowning near Siversky Donets early in the war.
We’ll see, if we are back to our time’s Chamberlain moment, at least he got a signed paper to wave around 😐
I also wonder how Zelensky et.al will be able to survive politically in Ukraine if they negotiate away land, there is a big risk that Ukraine then becomes unstable if I may guess.
Also note that my line is dangerously close to being interpreted as warmongering, it’s quick to move the goalposts 😀
Read the whole thread below and you will understand how Russia is hanging by a thread right now – this is when you hit Putin with a violent slap so he doubles over and then a hard uppercut so he collapses whining.
https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1813820386695434467?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The losses for a single brigade were interesting, 12,000 total for a single brigade that has not been a Bakhmut stormer or participated in the miracle at Vuhledar is highly interesting. It will be exciting when history is written how much RU has actually lost.
It’s dizzying that they lose 70,000 in two months and that it has been going on like this since the turn of the year. Or actually since last fall, in November 2023 losses increased and have remained high since then.
245,000 KWIA since November 2023, July not included.
And then we have not counted +30% non-combat related injuries and the losses that cannot be confirmed, like those mines they hear exploding all night at the northern front.
Zelensky has stated that at the northern front RU lost 8 times more barbarians than Ukraine lost knights.
I also want to highlight that Navy Day in the Baltic Sea area is canceled while two Ropucha ships have been moved from the northern fleet to the Baltic Sea – outside the norm. We have reason to believe that RU has offensive capability at least at AC size at the border with the Baltics.
https://x.com/1stfinfreecorps/status/1813978492889096433?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Russia has reinvented bicycle shooting.
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1813914167960842650