11:46 – Johan No.1
The thread has since the start of the war identified that the smallest piece of land ceded to RU can be turned into a win for Putin.
Then it is no secret that Russia always breaks all agreements.
So the likelihood is very high that they will enter an agreement, rearm, and then attack again – Ukraine or another country in the EU.
My thought is that the better outcome is if Russia instead turns inward in power struggles for a couple of years and then splits into a few smaller components. If we don’t want war in the EU.
11:48 – Johan No.1
So everyone who disagrees with me wants war in the EU 😀
12:34 – Johan No.1
If you want peace, you should prepare for war is a phrase I coined.
It can also be rewritten to say that you should prepare for the worst, which also originally comes from me.
Without further mocking Biden’s inactivity, common sense is to prepare for Trump winning and take measures already now, and if Biden wins, and if he suddenly becomes Ukraine-friendly and not a vampire bloodsucker – then everyone is happy and we go back to liking the USA.
I would have done that.
12:46 – Johan No.1
Sounds promising from Blenheim.
“There is going to be a bit of pressure on Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Poland — the big security actors in Europe — to make some kind of demonstration that Ukraine’s future is in hand.”
” In its statement Downing Street noted that Blenheim Palace is “the birthplace of Churchill who stood up to a previous generation of aggression on European soil.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/18/world/europe/europe-leaders-meet-blenheim-palace-uk-starmer.html
The wings of history ✊
12:52 – MatsExtrude
Yes, one starts to wonder a little if the support is starting to wane, hope the meeting results in something positive.
The economy in Russia is slowly collapsing deeper and deeper and the hardware is probably soon running out. If the West increases support a bit and stops messing around with restrictions, Ukraine can probably hold out until Russia hits rock bottom and then run them over.
Regarding the US election, the fat lady hasn’t sung yet but the bell is tolling and it would probably be best if we in Europe prepare ourselves (to stand on our own feet and not by currying favor with Trump).
12:58 – MatsExtrude
No, now you are wrong! 😉
13:03 – MatsExtrude
Sounds good so far.
14:57 – Johan No.1
The question is what is defined as critical?
Unmodified T54s are critical to me, if Ukraine had battalions with T54s the consensus in the West would be that the country was finished.
Or that motorcycles and golf carts have replaced IFVs, and that MTLBs are becoming more common instead of BMPs and BTRs.
BMDs haven’t been seen for a long time by the way but BTR40 and BDM2 have started to appear.
There are thousands of armored vehicles left at the fronts, that we should be clear about, but in the depots not so much.
700 tanks that can be brought into okay condition and a few thousand with fragmentation protection.
15:10 – Johan No.1
Blenheim,
Denmark comes out wildly shadowboxing, Mette has gotten far too little attention but Denmark has sent a lot of unit-level equipment and from reserve stocks.
Zelensky is really trying to appear as a great man,
The Ukrainian president urges Europe’s leaders to show the collective will to take these steps to help stop Russia’s aggression.
We are now hearing from President Volodymyr Zelensky who insists Russian missiles, drones and planes must be ”destroyed”.
He says: ”There must be a collective will to shoot them down just like the Iranian missiles and drones.”
”Your bravery can be decisive,” he tells leaders in the room.
”People should feel Europe is becoming closer,” Zelensky adds.
Zelensky has done his part 👍
15:21 – MatsExtrude
👍 Hopefully people realize it’s time to listen to him and do as he says!
11:33 – Johan No.1
Here we have Russian LV in Belgorod 🤣
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxk7rj4j5726
And the rest of Russia’s LV apparently stands by Putin’s dacha.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxk7v6rjlk2o
Today we will get a statement from the Blenheim meeting and we will see which way it goes and if the EU manages to unite under the flag ✊
There are two things that are potentially decisive for the war right now – how Western materiel can be used and all the rumors about peace negotiations.
For example, here a Russian officer comes out and says the war will end this year and we know from Zelensky that there will be peace negotiations this autumn, he will present a NEW proposal.
If you ask me, it is the USA driving this over Ukraine’s head but we have not yet received confirmation so this remains speculation on my part.
(excuse the source but the message is what’s interesting)
https://x.com/aussiecossack/status/1813496850219237865?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And Ben Hodges speaks frankly and says outright that the West does not support Ukraine to win, clearly and plainly.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxk3epzdi72c
Regarding Western materiel, I want to show below the completely unreasonable positions of the USA and Germany here, it ultimately concerns the entire Western group and that we are betrayed by our pals. Things like this can have major consequences, not least for the US arms industry. And no, nothing lasts forever – just look at how the USA has pulled back compared to 2001 to understand that the world is in constant change. Or how China has evolved from 1980 until today.
There has been a huge discussion in the thread about how weapons with components from, for example, the USA can be used and Defluencer wrote:
“There are thus no export rules preventing us from sending Swedish Gripen to Ukraine, as long as they continue to be handled by Swedish soldiers and remain under Swedish command, meaning that Sweden actively enters the war.”
Apparently, it is the re-export to a third country that is tricky, sending weapons to Ukraine from countries that have bought parts for weapons they themselves manufactured from the USA, or entire weapons platforms from the USA.
I can understand the purpose of this – the USA sells weapons to Pakistan who then sell them on to the Taliban who kill American soldiers with them. Reasonable.
In the broader discussion from several thread members (not Defluencer!) it is argued that this is how business works and it is something the West has to abide by. Like some kind of natural law.
If I remember this correctly, the USA, France, and Germany have been major exporters of components (USA), weapons and weapons platforms (Germany, France) to Russia. The biggest was probably the Mistral ships which were canceled in time and France is still upset about that, almost more upset than that the magic line never worked.
This continued openly after 2014 and these countries have thus assisted Russia in its rearmament ahead of the war start in 2022 even after Russia, poorly disguised (green men), entered Ukraine. In 8 years you can build up quite a bit.
Then components from the USA and the West continue to flow into Russia still in 2024 because sanctions are not properly enforced – they are a paper product without practical effect.
Suddenly pulling the card that weapons in the EU have parts from the USA or Germany and therefore cannot be sent to Ukraine because the end-user agreements say so is deeply unethical (and worrying) even if it would be correct according to contracts. And we haven’t even touched on betraying our closest allies or not looking after our own backyard as in the case of Germany.
The outcome is that the USA and Germany have NO objections to all the weapons and materiel they sold to Russia being used to kill civilians in Ukraine – because that follows the agreements made.
And they have no control function to prevent Russia from getting components for their weapons systems manufactured in their countries – there are no practical consequences and imports are not stopped after 2.5 years.
BUT they have objections to, and actively block, the weapons they sold to the entire West from being used to defend Ukraine and demand that this is followed.
And they actively control through requirements to third parties and directly with Ukraine that the weapons they send absolutely must not be used against targets in Russia that are potentially war-winning.
You surely haven’t missed that production of Storm Shadow is in full swing again but that no orders have been placed for Taurus even though the manufacturer themselves have announced they can produce large quantities of Taurus in a short time. Without knowing, I think Germany is holding back.
And then Germany halves support to Ukraine in 2025, and goes at half speed in its military budget according to Saltarens post yesterday.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-halve-military-aid-ukraine-despite-possible-trump-white-house-2024-07-17/
The USA and Germany have completely lost their way here – they have also completely lost their way legally.
There is no equal treatment at all and the expression “laws are only for those who follow them” has probably never fit better.
An absolute wild guess – I think the US arms industry at some point will rebel whether it is Trump or Biden and then the floodgates will open. As soon as the EU starts moving towards its own weapons production with 100% own components, Tomahawk will also come to Ukraine and Biden will be standing shouting that Moscow shall be leveled with the ground in sunglasses and uniform, and Trump will be behind waving a huge American flag looking murderous. But this won’t help Ukraine in the near term 😐
Then to point two which really surprised me and I will keep it short and just factual, I have for several days read in the thread that things looked very positive for Biden, that the shooting had no effect, that he has a chance to win, etc. Several knowledgeable people spoke out and others in the thread were told not to paint the devil on the wall.
Then I came across this from CNN yesterday.
https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1813557975761773006
And now I felt it was time to check polls for the first time so I went to the institutes namedropped in the thread, FiveThirtyEight for example.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-biden-polls
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls
https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/
If you want to be realistic for a second and stop dreaming, it looks to me like the EU fairly quickly needs to unite under the flag and we can hope the Blenheim meeting has been fruitful ✊
I want to take the opportunity to kill another myth – in the EU there is enough existing materiel to win the war and Ukraine has gone from 0 USD to 20 billion USD arms industry in a few years, and their weapons platforms are magnitudes cheaper to manufacture than those in the rest of the EU, and better than anything RU can deploy.
The EU has production of all the materiel needed, we do not need the USA and if there is only the will we can do like Ukraine and increase production of materiel that outclasses everything RU has and can manufacture – RU is outpaced both in quality and quantity.
Germany may need to be handled because they have deliberately dawdled with the Lithuania brigade for some reason and then it starts to become a security policy risk but the EU is not Germany, Germany is just one country in the EU.
Then the EU can do like Poland and buy from South Korea and there are surely dozens of companies outside the USA that put new weapon stations (towers) on older vehicles in REMO. This has been going on throughout the war and we are now starting to see those vehicles in Ukraine but there are tens of thousands of old fragmentation shields left in barns in the EU that can be refurbished – there is no shortage of anything.
Back to the fronts.
I know I can’t kill this truth because Zelensky has come out and confirmed that the daily lottery numbers were somewhat correct, and KWIA, so I have had to settle for the fact that non-war-related injuries were not counted in the +30% and that they don’t include everything that dies in the rear.
But…
This is, I believe, now the fifth time we get information about a single regiment we didn’t know about that has been wiped out 4-5 times. In this case, a RU army brigade has 12,000 total losses 😲
We know that DPR, LPR, Wagner, and Storm Z have been pushed harder than ethnically Russian army units and have suffered even worse losses.
The biggest jokes, the 155th and 810th marine infantry, have been wiped out so many times I’ve lost count. Then we had the 72nd MRB that went and died at Vuhledar and then took more hits in Bakhmut.
12,000 from just a single regiment…
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxk6y434i22p
I can’t find it on the unit maps but the 6th CAA is up in northern Luhansk.
As I said, this can’t be pushed too far but David D (and I) have a slightly different view on Russian losses than the mainstream.
What is interesting in this case is that the soldier says the official number is 6,000 but the reality is 12,000.
The other thing is – who is pushing all this negative reporting about the war right now 🧐
Those who really should be praised for their support are Denmark, they have sent as much military aid as the UK and half of what Germany has sent.
France is behind and also Macron went completely silent so no extra points for smart politics.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxkaf4n2bc2y
The only factory in Russia for SPG is burning like a Christmas tree
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxkchc3wig23
And Russia can only produce 100 artillery barrels per year for all weapon types with barrels. A somewhat limiting factor, right, and now we understand why all new tanks are modifications of older tanks and new production is close to zero 😀
https://x.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1813552965766332515
And here you have grenades distributed to Russian soldiers.
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1813513431343038593?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The Brits now want to try to ensure that sanctions are followed and squeeze the Russian shadow fleet – interesting. There will probably be a statement in two days when the US calls and says they don’t want to do it at all and that it was all a misunderstanding.
https://x.com/marionawfal/status/1813542410175041847?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Freedom and Russian have carried out explosive sabotage in Perm
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxk7yuldes2o
North Korean training commanders are now in Russia. So the rumor might have been true that NK would send soldiers to Ukraine as we guessed. Of course, they haven’t landed in Ukraine yet 😀
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1813347415803474430?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Continued warning on China and Belarus, now Lukashenko has unilaterally removed the visa requirement for the EU to travel to Belarus. It’s a rather strange move and I gladly welcome suggestions on what is going on.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1813648188836073887?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
This probably couldn’t go worse 😲
https://x.com/FAFO_TV/status/1813599564487893406
Waiting eagerly for the statement from the meeting in Blenheim and Zelensky’s follow-up.