13:28 – MatsExtrude
Thanks for today’s essay! 👍
Hopefully, the destroyed electricity infrastructure will not have to lead to people freezing to death, but I think it will hit the whole society very hard.
If the electricity works 50% of the time, even if it is scheduled, it affects everything and everyone. Companies and industries will have difficulty with production, and of course, it becomes tougher just to live.
A heavily strained economy becomes even more stressed.
In winter, when the Russians bomb and destroy, the power can be out for several days with consequential effects like frozen power lines, etc.
It probably won’t be easy to maintain motivation after yet another winter.
At the same time, it is probably risky for Ukraine when they do not know whether support from the USA will disappear or not. If they go on the offensive and then do not get resupplied, it will be tough. Then it is probably smarter to continue defensively until the election is over.
If only the other Western countries had clearly signaled that they will increase support to complement what the USA might no longer contribute, it would of course have made things easier. Unfortunately, nothing is heard about how we plan to act if we end up there.
Zelenskyy must have it damn tough when he is almost entirely dependent on support from other countries and where the conditions can change from one day to another.
This naturally also applies to the military leadership. It is ridiculous with restrictions that can change at any time and depending on who has given what.
How the hell can one plan any long-term strategies at all?
13:56 – Johan No.1
Now I’m exaggerating a bit for effect, but it is generally known that Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure is largely knocked out?
Without electricity, not much heat if you live in apartment buildings; villas might manage a bit better.
Generators are good and we can hope that the West sends enough and that they are not subjected to sabotage.
Then there are still sensitive nodes that Russia will naturally knock out this winter so that electricity distribution is disrupted.
The problem with generators is also that they are not supposed to run 24/7 but only a few hours now and then; if you run them constantly, they wear out quickly.
14:01 – Johan No.1
Yes, I suspect that the shock after the West completely stopped providing equipment and ammunition for a year has led to them practically not being able to afford to take risks again.
It’s the same with the F-16s now; they were supposed to come in the spring but now it’s almost the end of summer.
I was on the verge of including your last sentence today and discussing it – exactly, how can you plan anything at all with such delivery uncertainty?
I have increasingly started to feel that words are meaningless and it is actions that matter.
And the biggest mistake of the war from my side – overconfidence in the West.
14:13 – Johan No.1
I think that everything you write would have been a non-issue if Ukraine had won the war.
This whole “non-escalation strategy” is completely fatal.
There is an election in 2024 but between 2022 – 2024 there has been no election in the USA.
China stayed passive until this spring and now they are actually quite aggressive; they are presumably smelling blood.
At least Putin believed in the gas weapon before the war and also fired it, but it did not give the result he wanted.
14:41 – Johan No.1
The 1991 borders are for Ukraine to win the war.
Ukraine understands that they will, just like Finland, have to prepare for war in order to have peace going forward.
That is also why they never allow their maneuver brigades to go down to zero because then they are done in round two.
My thought is that the world would be a better place if Russia were split into a couple more countries.
It went well in 1989, so the chance that it would work again should be high.
Then the future threat, which is definitely a threat, becomes smaller.
This is how Russia has been since the 1700s, this IS Russia.
18:42 – MatsExtrude
I thought we were late but then it seemed like we finally picked up speed (when tanks and a lot of other stuff were suddenly promised).
Then it feels like the air went out. Deliveries came late and Ukraine’s offensive stalled and since then it has been quite thin.
I guess that they barely even replenish losses except maybe just air defense.
Toothless sanctions were my first bigger disappointment but that is nothing compared to now when they fail to increase deliveries.
When you see that the Russians are the ones advancing, you damn well have to realize that what has been done is not enough and that you instead have to increase.
Otherwise, all talk about supporting Ukraine “as long as needed” is completely pointless. Do they perhaps mean that they will help until Russia has killed every Ukrainian, so there is no Ukraine left to support?
11:43 – Johan No.1
Have you noticed that Kier Starmer has ignored Biden’s sour WhatsApp messages and once again confirms that Storm Shadow can be used against targets in Russia. Pretty sure Macron said the same and Peloni too – though it’s not easy to keep track of all the developments here. This is thus breaking a directive from the USA, so it is significant. Unfortunately, it also signals that it is urgent just as we believe in the thread, otherwise Kier Starmer would not have stuck his head out in his first month on the job.
(Yes, the US ban naturally applies to all weapons, not just their ATACMS).
It is also important to understand that the US position goes against their own military expertise.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxrp32eeid2p
Support in words, now it remains to be seen if it translates into action as well. There are more SS than there are strike aircraft at the northern front and one missile – one aircraft should be the ration. We know Kier is a man who can be trusted when Twitter is flooded with reports of dozens of strike aircraft knocked out at the Russian bases.
A bit sensitive in the thread when MXT was discovered by Dengamle with backstabbing, pure marketplace drama 😲 Luckily, people have been decent and not engaged in such even though I am currently being innocently violently attacked by something ancient.
Rikkitikitavi and MXT made me think a bit here. It is no secret that Ukraine’s power infrastructure is largely knocked out because the West stopped delivering LV missiles that were/were in stock.
That discussion is completely absent as to why the West made this decision but historians will have to argue about that in the future.
It is also no secret that there will be long power outages this winter and then large parts of the population will be exposed and will freeze. Could this newfound willingness to negotiate from Ukraine’s side have to do with this?
Zelensky knows that this winter he will have problems with the soldiers’ motivation when their families freeze to death?
A follow-up question – is there a risk that power shortages in Ukraine will raise electricity prices in the EU, I know that in previous winters Ukraine has exported to the EU so some loss is probably likely?
Then LNG transit through Ukraine ends at the turn of the year – will that affect EU electricity prices and will it affect the willingness to continue helping Ukraine liberate its country?
Another winter like 2023 will probably make citizens really angry and if you can turn it into the problem being that Ukraine does not want to negotiate peace then there will be pressure on our politicians.
Say it again – I don’t think the West and Ukraine can afford several more years of war.
Right now UA is also going hard against Russia’s power infrastructure and Krasnodar is dark.
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1814609232173375780?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
But it should not be ignored that the West is letting Russia gain a negotiating advantage over Ukraine by not stopping Russian missiles and at the same time not allowing Ukraine to carry out proportional retaliation, equal treatment is conspicuously absent.
Why it is becoming urgent now should perhaps be answered.
Not only is the power infrastructure smashed which can cause cascading effects out in the EU so we potentially have higher electricity prices if Ukraine is in deficit and Hungary, Slovakia and Serbia have to buy on the EU market this winter. If you combine that with some “technical faults” in the power infrastructure again it could cause higher prices. And the arms industry is well electricity-intensive so when it increases demand goes up?
Do you think the LNG terminals in the EU are drone-protected now that Russia has begun sabotage in the EU and is planning assassinations of key personnel?
The other thing is the damn FAB bomb dispensers (and missile carriers).
They are a bit like plowing a field in RU’s offensive right now – RU is advancing because of them. Until they are gone RU will advance because Ukraine cannot gather any defense at all but must defend with the minimum possible to avoid losses. RU drops 800 per week.
Before UA lost Lysychansk they gathered a couple of battalions in a staging area west of Lysychansk and RU got wind of them. This was at the time when RU had artillery superiority and they absolutely hurled Grad rockets at the area and managed to foil the attempt to hold or retake Lysychansk, I don’t remember which. The number of dead is unclear but certainly considerable.
The FAB bombs are even worse, if RU gets wind of a troop concentration they can in relatively short time get many FAB bombs into the area which with their effective radii and decent hit pattern have a high probability of causing the greatest possible damage.
This damn ammunition simply must be removed – it makes larger movements impossible until it is gone. It effectively makes defense impossible and it makes offense impossible.
I must also remind all of you aiming for the 2025 offensive – if F-16s do not come to UA, and if the FAB bomb dispensers are not shot down even in 2025, then there will be no offensive then either – the effects of this catastrophic policy from the USA have no end date. I don’t think Biden will change his mind after the election if he wins and Trump will definitely not do much for Ukraine if he wins.
But as you know I believe in an offensive in 2024 and do not let myself be discouraged, even if I am starting to get a bit worried that F-16s and decisions are delayed. We are at the end of July and according to earlier the F-16 is probably the critical line 😐
Then some truth is creeping in that it is pilots and ground service that are holding back – that is a lie because Denmark promised F-16s by May before they had to change their mind and do you think they completely overlooked the ground personnel, and that UA themselves are begging on their bare knees for the planes to come. It is the USA that is actively holding back the deliveries of F-16s.
Then we have this with the EU’s rearmament and that we must do better – I must remind that Ukraine in the middle of an ongoing war has built up a weapons industry worth 20 billion USD/year and they have mobilized 1.25 million to the armed forces and have about 2 million in the personnel reserve.
That the EU would need 10 years to rearm is not true. The EU has a weapons industry that far exceeds Ukraine’s, only they have not received enough orders to be able to scale up properly.
But Germany is not ready for anything before 2029.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxhnsre7qp26
And if the EU were to gather all ready units and station them in the Baltics then Russia would have zero chance to even cross the border. Just France has 8 brigades (not ready units) and they are not needed in France if the Baltics do not fall. Eight well-equipped French brigades with LV and artillery plus air force protection and behind minefields is a Russia-stop.
South Korea increased to mass production of the K2 tank already in 2023.
It is the lack of orders from EU governments that makes the arms industry not increase enough. But we spend endless billions on, for example, the green transition in the EU, where the treasury is almost bottomless.
The reason we are sitting here in 2024 and cannot rejoice that Moscow is burning is called politics, nothing else.
Only one country in Europe has taken full responsibility for the EU’s future, and that is Ukraine.
Just as Finland took responsibility for the northern front for decades so that Sweden, Norway, and Denmark could live in (relative) freedom.
Our defense budget is increasing by 32 billion SEK over “a few years.” I must remind you that aid is +50 billion SEK annually. Our defense is not even a high priority today in 2024.
And the classic that no one places orders for thousands of Taurus – an excellent missile just waiting to rain down on Russia.
Or that we have not started the next Gripen letter, or begun completing all the Gripen fuselages that exist.
Or full REMO on all CV90 vehicle bodies.
Or buying Leo1-2 and doing the 122 modification on them, or the new one.
Parallel to new production in the EU, a REMO program is ongoing. The major material flows are the vehicle bodies for armored vehicles, and new turrets/weapons stations and electronics are installed, making them the latest Russia killers.
Just the country Bulgaria has around 1000 BTR and BMP older models, and we have seen what a few hundred Bradleys have done at the fronts.
The EU continues to sleep through this, which is a bit sad; in 2.5 years, they should have completed REMO on thousands of vehicles in the EU that could have been sent to Ukraine.
Fun though that in France some (extreme) leftists who were elected immediately took the opportunity and wanted 90% tax and to nationalize everything. Marxists and communists are probably also controlled by Putin who can fan the flames on both flanks.
I think it is becoming increasingly important that parties, individuals, and organizations review the issues they promote and whether they benefit Russia or not.
That the Left Party in Sweden, for example, believes that the Ukraine war should be won but that the EU should not rearm so it does not become an arms race again is a very dangerous position that they should reflect on more.
Or Dan Eliasson’s protest against the EU coming together to buy naval mines for the Baltic Sea.
After the statements Russia has made, this is about protecting the EU now, and then you have to let go of old ideologies and truths.
This is probably among the best I have heard – the UAE sending peacekeeping troops to G..a.
I have long thought that this is the way forward, I..el backs out and a UN mission takes care of security, as well as an Egypt-style wall between I..el and P..a areas.
https://x.com/partisangirl/status/1814488701403386044?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Here are more videos of T62s on their way to the fronts – the T90M is conspicuously absent.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxrpk3xgw22d
This one was exciting about how the defense forces in times of peace have become an administrative career enabler instead of focusing on the core mission.
https://x.com/andreasbraw/status/1814623122487660671?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Interesting that China practiced airborne landing in Belarus to retake an airport from terrorists. It would be interesting to know what the Chinese definition of terrorists is.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3271117/chinese-and-belarussian-troops-practice-seizing-airport-drill-near-ukrainian-and-polish-borders
This is how it is spun from the other side.
https://x.com/_jakubjanda/status/1814550248930279503?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
That you do not win wars with artillery and terror bombings is an old truth. You need to pair it with activity on the battlefield as well.
Just like with Russia, the problems in Ukraine are much bigger than we are led to believe – if you fire the entire defense leadership and half of the brigade commanders, and then are about to make a bigger change in the administration, then you also have problems simmering.
Add to that that the West allowed Russia to knock out almost all of Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure and that Ukraine is not allowed to make potentially war-winning moves on the battlefield – winter will be tough for Ukraine.
And what says the West will not do the same thing again and completely stop delivering materiel for a year, no one knows. The only thing we know is that the West has already done it.
If we had known that Ukraine could keep going like this for another 10 years and that there was value in this strategy, we could have argued for it.
All I see is that no one knows how long Ukraine can hold out and that global escalation increases the longer time goes on, and that Western support can go from 100 to 0 overnight.
Here are the points from Zelensky’s speech,
-Another restructuring this time in the government – that does not signal strength at all, he fired countless chiefs in the defense forces last autumn.
-Ukraine will naturally not join NATO as soon as the war is over, why are they lying to Zelensky? Turkey and Hungary will never let Ukraine in unless Russia wants it and you cannot have an open conflict, like a territorial dispute, if you want to join, so then it is the 1991 borders that apply.
-Ukraine has too few air defense systems and they will get too few F-16s (and there are plenty of both weapon types in the warehouses).
-A peace plan ready in November and Russia must be present, so now Zelensky is taking the initiative for peace talks. Note here that this is a new peace plan, so Zelensky’s 10-point plan is no longer on the table.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1812819979873456194?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Here I take the opportunity to remind of all the agreements Russia has broken with Ukraine.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxhnp52qss25
Instead of Putin being forced to negotiate to get Belgorod back, he now has all the territory to negotiate with because he has the initiative and conquered land, and his military and air bases inside Russia are protected.
If I were the West, I would in 2024 have ensured that the Russian Air Force was severely decimated and that Belgorod Oblast was invaded and that Crimea was isolated so that Russia had to negotiate to get Belgorod back instead. That plan had, if nothing else, Budanov before it was voted down by the USA, which apparently has endless votes.
It is perfectly possible to control Ukraine by only giving them half of what was promised, no advanced aircraft all summer, and too little air defense. MXT usually calls it just giving them enough to keep their head above water. And then not allowing everything that could work for Ukraine, just as has been done throughout the war. VDV at Kherson 😭
What stings a bit is that Belarus was just on the verge of having a popular revolution here, but that door seems to be closed. There are 7,000 Wagner troops in the country and now also Chinese SOF – it took 2.5 years for that door to close. Just as the West has a tripwire in the Baltics, China now has a tripwire in Belarus.
Then it remains to be seen if Kier Starmer’s promises prove true in action because that would suddenly change a lot if some thousand Storm Shadow missiles no longer had geographical restrictions and could be used against high-value targets in Russia.