10:12 – Johan No.1
Forgot one thing – if Ukraine wins the war, they will have a military of 1.5 million men who will tie down 1.5 million Russians at the land border with Ukraine.
As soon as RU starts moving towards the EU, Ukraine can always enter Russia?
10:56 – Johan No.1
One more thing – every nation’s Chief of Defence has a job description to ensure their country’s defense is adequate.
When the Russian threat increases, national defense must increase, and then support to third parties (UA) decreases, and countries throughout the EU are sweeping the arms industry for new weapons so there is nothing left for Ukraine to buy.
So each country acts rationally on its own, but the overall effect is hoarding in the rear instead of ensuring the perimeter defense is strong enough. And it even becomes counterproductive because they buy weapons that UA should have gotten instead.
10:57 – Johan No.1
So it is in Russia’s interest to inflate the threat as much as they can.
11:08 – Johan No.1
I have to admit that I think it was a sad end for Biden – an unworthy end. Also posted a question about Harris in the thread where we are to discuss the US election.
Here is someone claiming that people trying to follow K Harris on Twitter are unsuccessful.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxwn6pnxkr23
Before Twitter was sold, it was indeed the previous management that was trying in various ways to limit the reach of groups they identified as undesirable in different ways, and we can probably assume that Elon is doing exactly the same and a bit more, resulting in all GOP-related content being boosted and helped with distribution, while D-related content is severely restricted.
I think that today, July 2024, it is at least possible to entertain the thought that Musk’s purchase of Twitter was aimed at gaining control over the flow of information ahead of the presidential election. Musk apparently paid 27 billion USD out of his own pocket and then all the usual US investment banks contributed cash. The value of Twitter has dropped by 71.5% since the purchase but that doesn’t seem to bother Musk in the slightest.
The number of users also seems to have dropped slightly but it gets the message across attractively – 106 million accounts in the US. Right now “laughing hyena” is trending and it will definitely stick.
I believe history will teach us that some in the Russian leadership leaked quite a lot to Ukraine at the start of the war and during the war. We like to believe it’s the West’s or Ukraine’s spies, but more likely it’s opposition to Putin trying to undermine him.
Now even the Wagner coup was not enough, so attempts at palace coups are probably harder now, and in all our discussions we concluded that the FSB has been loyal to Putin?
But Putin is probably not secure, and the situation in Russia is worse than we are led to believe.
– there are sabotage acts all over Russia and various “liberation fronts” claim responsibility. Right now there are many sabotages against substations that cut power to an area.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1815443249265602910?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
– partisan attacks in occupied areas in Ukraine are sharply increasing.
– Russian internal troops are spread between Russia and Ukraine and are insufficient, and they are increasingly needed as blocking units. Up at the northern front there are 3-5 blocking units depending on which have gotten that function. RU themselves have considered they need 400,000 just in Ukraine and that is about the total they have including all the letter agencies and Rosgvardia for both Russia and Ukraine.
– there is more and more negative reporting about the war from milbloggers and others and such people are helped to take their own lives. MXT posted a negative discussion on state TV yesterday – are they being helped to take their lives now?
– PerraG55 posted yesterday that negotiations are being discussed in certain circles in Moscow.
– we posted a video of a Russian commander who said the war would be over this year.
(I think these two are because Trump promised Putin to get a ceasefire).
– the Russians are now running screaming and dying on the fields with great frenzy – far beyond what is sustainable. This has an end date.
– the materiel reserve is becoming dangerously low, 700 tanks left in depots that can be completed.
– Russian artillery is steadily declining and in some places down to 1:3 against UA. before UA scaled up properly and they have now deployed older 1950s artillery that they don’t have ammunition for.
– 1.5 million families in Russia either have KIA or fathers at the front who are not very enthusiastic about the war.
Russia is like a gang selling drugs in a suburb, the slightest sign of weakness and another gang will try to take over your area.
Putin is currently showing infinite weakness in the war but internally he has managed to extinguish a first attempt at activated opposition, we have already had a palace coup which was probably the anticlimax of the war.
But the opposition waits in the shadows for its opportunity.
I believe that opportunity is when Ukraine retakes ground in a mechanized offensive and this time it is not a ragtag battle group of T64s and M113s trying their best.
Ukraine has an absolutely enormous armored fist waiting for its turn here, it is tens of experienced brigades with equipment from the West or upgraded Soviet materiel.
Stopped ammunition deliveries, delayed F-16s, and a ban on taking out FAB bombers currently govern Ukraine but they have prepared for a blow at the northern front, at Siversky Donets, and at the Dnieper.
Then RU seems to be moving units from different fronts right now so I wouldn’t be surprised if suddenly there is an opening on the eastern front that UA can exploit. They seem to be pulling units from there to the northern and southern fronts.
If the West can just realize that a loss for Russia in the war automatically means a palace coup and that it is inevitable, then we can rip off the band-aid and Ukraine will be allowed to win this.
There is some kind of whitewashing going on right now that Ukraine is weak, and it’s exactly the same discussion we had in 2022 and 2023 before it died down.
Russia doesn’t even attack anymore with golf carts because they’re all gone, now it’s moped-shooting 😲 A perfect target that doesn’t move too fast, doesn’t take cover at all, and is soft.
Nowadays we only see trains with T62 and T54, and the latest addition was the M46 which has a caliber RU doesn’t even have ammunition for.
And hunters in Siberia are being asked to hand in their hunting weapons for the war 😲
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1815241668234473596?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And here is the first M46 knocked out
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1815382965322396021?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
There are endless anecdotes about soldiers signing contracts and dying at the front a week later, and wounded being sent back to the attacks before they have fully healed.
We have seen videos of a number of invalids at an armored regiment on crutches and another where they hopped around on crutches in some village moving equipment – this is not a rumor but documented with video evidence – convalescents are sent back far too early.
The drone war has been lost by RU, the strategic bombing war is lost, the artillery’s backbone is broken, and their supply of armor is terrible.
According to previous statements, Ukraine must win this war without going down to zero because then Russia wins round two; they must have a somewhat maintained defense force.
But since they barely could defend themselves all winter and now in summer don’t get critical capabilities, it delays their next move and now the offensive season here is almost over 😐
If they had been able to pour violence over the Russians all winter, gotten air cover, and gone on the offensive now during the summer half-year, the war could once again have been won.
But this is actively opposed by the West, which does not want escalation.
You see just like me how Kier Starmer promises that his Storm Shadow will be allowed to be fired into Russia but nothing happens. Once permission is granted, Ukraine will fire a huge salvo the same night.
Then China helps RU with the arms industry and the critical components they lack, and this will increase the longer they get away with it – over time Russia’s arms industry will get going.
My guess is also that by summer 2025 China will have succeeded with the drone weapon and the battlefields will be flooded with Chinese drones matching the West’s capabilities. China has, after all, the ability for large-scale production and they also have two eyes to watch with and see what works.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxwpfha47s23
Autonomous AI drones big and small, motherships, anti-drone drones, EW and EW-secure drones, the same as Ukraine but the quantity is infinitely much higher because China has a large industrial capacity.
Those who believe that the EU will manage to start large-scale drone production by summer 2025 need to rethink, and the USA will now be fully occupied with internal politics whether Trump wins or not – forget the USA.
The advantage UA has right now is because they themselves, in the middle of a burning war, have managed to acquire it against the bungling Russia.
China has significantly advanced its positions during the spring and the drone weapon is effective and less politically charged than starting to send missiles – consider here that China will also benefit from the upcoming political deadlock in the USA and can start doing a bit as they please because who will stop them?
The big brushstrokes should be painted this year and the longer it takes before delivery of F-16s on the critical line, the harder it will be to paint these brushstrokes.
Zelensky must take into account that Trump can stop all support at the turn of the year. If Trump doesn’t win and there is even the slightest hint of election fraud (there are always some who cheat on both sides in all elections worldwide), then Trump’s second-best game will be to lock down the USA. So Zelensky simply has to count on US support ending at the turn of the year.
Then you know just like me that Biden could send everything through existing programs or executive orders but he doesn’t – the will today is not there and after the election it will be even lower.
Netanyahu went to the USA to get permission to wage war against seven countries/organizations.
There were big protests in I..el before he boarded the plane.
Rumor – Biden canceled the meeting with him and he wanted to meet Trump instead, why he didn’t ask for a meeting with the VP is unclear.
If the USA is so chaotic domestically that they don’t have time for I..el when it’s a serious crisis for them, do you think they will prioritize UA?
My take on this is that Trump has two jobs – try to become President and if that doesn’t work, lock down the USA.
To put it bluntly – the USA avoids escalation and doesn’t want Russia to turn inward but now Russia has instead succeeded in getting the USA to turn inward. A bit suicidal.
And if it turns out that China’s drone weapons overwhelm Ukraine – do you think Putin will stop at Ukraine or go after the Baltics when he has managed to get a technical advantage that the West cannot match in a year or two?
There is a lot unknown ahead of 2025 so surfing through 2024 is almost criminal but that is what is happening now.
Zelensky has in several speeches been clear that 2024 is an important year and that Ukraine needs to regain the initiative so they get a decent position for negotiations – this is not happening right now due to all delays and bans and we are at the end of July.
Since China produces ships in numbers like the Royal Navy every year, what do you think they do with missiles and drone weapons?
By the way, here is a video from a Chinese kindergarten,
https://x.com/longshortgamma/status/1780994124298231819?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Here you have Xiaomi’s factory in China, fully automated so how do you think the drone and missile industry looks that is state-prioritized?
https://x.com/kanthan2030/status/1780755870667743720?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I say it again – the West cannot afford to wait until 2025/2026, or until those Chinese kindergarten kids have grown up.
The USA is about to get locked down and will absolutely not support Ukraine more than they do today. Just as Russia is smelling morning air, so is China, and as soon as Chinese weapons reach the fronts making movement really difficult, this war is heading towards Ukraine giving up territory for peace and then the escalation continues according to Putin’s plan.
Ukraine is carrying everything on its shoulders right now and the signs are there that they are starting to get tired. Time is always a factor and if the citizens see no end, the country will eventually accept that they will always be opposed so they are not allowed to win and then it is easier to accept giving up some land in the east.
Ukrainian TV –
https://x.com/panchenko_x/status/1815318355122766189?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I..el according to their own statement is about to escalate significantly in MENA.
Even the shining demigods at ISW believe that UA has offensive capability just like all of us in the thread collectively think 👍
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1815454264208048440?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
12:04 – MatsExtrude
Well written as usual! 👍
I am convinced that China is a much bigger threat to Ukraine than the US stopping its contributions.
China doesn’t even need to increase arms deliveries to Russia.
Drones have become indispensable and most of those used are COTS drones or drones built from individual components and everything comes from China.
Sure, drones are built elsewhere but the components still come from China.
China could easily stop all exports to all countries except Russia. That would be a huge blow to Ukraine and probably alone decide the war.
Drones become a wunderwaffe if only one side has access to them.
Of course there are military drones but not nearly in the quantities needed and at a completely different cost.
If China chooses to do this, there is not much the West can do about it. Hard to criticize or impose sanctions just because they stop selling consumer products and parts to the same…
One reason they might not do it is that they realize in the long term they would lose the market as other countries would start their own production, but that is probably a small price to pay if they really want Russia to win the war.
I’m actually a bit surprised they haven’t done it already and hope it’s because they don’t really care much if Russia loses. That only strengthens China’s influence and crashes all of Russia and it begins to break up, they probably don’t see that as a threat, maybe rather as a chance for themselves to take over certain parts and further strengthen their position.
We in the West will not try to grab anything and they know that.
12:20 – Johan No.1
Reflection on Zelensky.
Zelensky has shown to have it all, he has the social talent that made the West like him, he has gone from a skinny comedian to having a tight shirt which I guess is something needed in Ukraine, just like a boss in China must be able to sing karaoke and play ping pong. But then he has also shown full integrity and the ability to navigate the staircase to the haunted house that Ukraine probably is. He fired the entire combat leadership and many brigade commanders and is now reshuffling the administration. He can handle being disliked because there must be many who don’t like him.
It seems like 65% still support him and he has managed to avoid the worst conspiracy theories.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn007p39zdzo
Remember the Cossack in Bakhmut who spoke condescendingly about the “azkenaziju…arna in the government” which directly comes from Zelensky’s damn origin.
His TV series aired at the same time he announced he would run for president and it is clear that he won because he promoted something that went against the established order and Poroshenko whom Ukrainians were deeply dissatisfied with.
He was backed by Ihor Kolomovsky who was later arrested for corruption so old ties to his creator might have been severed?
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/03/world/ihor-kolomoisky-ukraine-fraud-investigation-intl-hnk/index.html
His single biggest mistake in the war was listening to Germany and France and hoping Russia would not attack and he had more than luck the first weeks but as soon as the first shot was fired he had full integrity.
The legendary – “I don’t need transport out of the country, give me ammunition” and the films from Kiev the first days probably saved Ukraine.
There was no shortage of commanders who sided with Russia and the southern front was a mosaic of all sorts, not least treason.
One of the most important factors for Zelensky developing into the head of state he is today and managing to hold Ukraine together is probably that the US through Budanov and a few others had the intelligence services on the right side of history.
There is no shortage of assassination attempts on Zelensky – he himself has stated 10.
At the invasion there were embedded saboteurs in Kiev with the goal to kill Zelensky but they had been exposed by some contact in RU and the VDV dropped paratroopers over Kiev’s presidential quarters. Veterans broke up barracks and defended Kiev the first days together with the few units that were on site.
But even Zelensky has a best before date – right now he has shelved the presidential election and sits as a war president which is something that can be held against him over time and he is forced to call a new election.
Ukraine can count itself lucky to have had Zelensky and the West should not gamble that the next president will be as loyal to his people and fundamental ethical principles.
He is only 46 years old so age is not a factor but he is likely under enormous pressure daily and has made several wrong decisions that have led to suffering during the war which he has to live with, and is No.1 to be killed by Putin and over time it is always someone from his inner circle who sees a self-interest in him disappearing.
12:52 – MatsExtrude
He probably believed until the last moment that he could come to an agreement with Putin and find a peaceful solution, I don’t think you can blame that entirely on France and Germany.
I think he himself was a bit naive.
Regardless, he has been absolutely crucial for Ukraine. I don’t think anyone else could have done it as well. From refusing to flee to traveling around and convincing world leaders to provide support. He has also realized that he should stay away from military decisions as much as possible.
I think he prefers to stay as long as possible and suspect that part of the rotation of people is actually because of that.
I actually believe that the experience and contacts he has built up mean that he would also be the best choice in the future. Unless he burns out of course. On the other hand, both he and his family deserve that he steps back but if he still has the energy I think he still wants to continue.
13:44 – Johan No.1
If you, like me, have nothing better to do than follow Twitter, then you know that –
-Biden and possibly Harris have avoided meeting Netanyahu who flew to the US solely to meet them.
-China has brokered peace among Palestinian groups who visited Xi in China and now they are all getting along.
😲
Things move fast in hockey.
14:07 – Johan No.1
There is some warning on this but possibly Harris’s proposal for Sullivan’s replacement is a real Russia hater 👍😀
Now don’t do like me and down a beer at work in pure joy.
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1815658170095640940?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
14:15 – Johan No.1
I’m not saying we shouldn’t have tolls on Chinese goods, generally we should be careful that China doesn’t wipe out our industry.
But wouldn’t it be better if the first 90,000 SEK electric cars came to the EU instead of ridiculously expensive Teslas or Polestars?
Clearly, development has taken off in China so they can produce large volumes cheaply, and then the electrification of the vehicle fleet in the EU is settled + you no longer need to buy the car on installment.
14:16 – MatsExtrude
👍 On vacation but waiting to get confirmation that Sull-Ivan will be allowed to leave.
14:23 – Johan No.1
Imagine if Kamala is the one who opens the floodgates to Sierra 😲
19:08 – Johan No.1
Legends, UA drops poisoned water over thirsty Russians in 35 degrees 👍
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1815794027448426898?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
19:13 – Johan No.1
The last train ferry for Kerch immobilized
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1815790652225134871?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
20:55 – Johan No.1
The UK Chief of Defence Staff disagrees.
https://x.com/kanthan2030/status/1815793800956276984?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then there was the film before that drone show – quite technically advanced.
Everyone tries to show their best side, even we in the West, when BMW shows off a factory or Tesla.
China has enormous problems and could very well fall, but the risk we take is that they don’t, and that’s what we should reasonably prepare for – if we want peace, we must prepare for war.
10:10 – Johan No.1
Then I’ll spin a bit further on the idea that it is a reasonable explanation –
RU is currently building up its military from scratch, there are probably a couple of ACs under construction that are not intended for Ukraine, Belarus probably has around 100,000 by now if Lukashenko has been diligent.
Just France has 8 brigades, for example.
The entire EU has rapid reaction forces that amount to several brigades combined.
RU does not have unlimited points of penetration – the Baltics, Poland, Finland, or an amphibious operation.
An amphibious operation in the Baltic Sea will end in mass death for RU. Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, and some help from the UK will sweep away the Baltic fleet immediately.
They won’t get a meter into Finland – Finland wants peace so they have prepared for war.
They can always try to attack Poland and see how that goes.
The Baltics are poorly defended – send the 8 French brigades there today and make the Baltics impregnable.
One last point – if what you write is true, the West itself has given up Article 5.