11:41 – MatsExtrude
👍 Thanks!
Looking forward to Boxing Day when I get the chance to shine!
Normally, Russia exports around 20-25% of its gasoline and 50% of its diesel. At the same time, I guess domestic consumption has increased significantly due to the war. Tanks and fighter jets are not exactly known for being fuel-efficient, and then we have everything else rolling around in Ukraine.
Sanctions have probably already forced them to cut back on production somewhat, and it can certainly be tricky to get it going again. (Unfortunately, they have been able to continue selling crude oil).
17% is probably enough at this point for such a shortage to arise that they cannot manage to export and must import.
Besides knocked-out refineries, depots and their infrastructure have also been affected. Even if there is fuel, it must also reach its destination.
It can certainly be much more than 17% that has been knocked out, but I don’t think it’s a question of 50% as someone (I don’t remember who 🤔) usually claims.
But we will probably get there eventually!
Agree that the time from now until the end of the year can be decisive (in many different ways).
11:48 – Johan No.1
Every country needs X% high performers who drive research and the country forward. Many countries have special schools that catch gifted individuals and coach them into a future role that suits them.
We have a daughter who is gifted, introverted, and a bit lower on the social scale. She got tired of school quite quickly and dropped out of high school, and then she has difficulty with “normal” jobs. Now she is supposed to finish the last year so she can continue studying, but the Swedish school system does not reward her type at all, and above all, these children need quite a lot of support socially, which is completely lacking in Swedish schools where someone a bit different gets eaten up.
If you are at the intellectual maturity level of a 25-year-old and your classmates are 12-14, it is probably quite painful.
Sometimes I watch videos from Chinese preschools and they are light years ahead of us in Sweden. Yes – there is value in letting children be children for a while but it is also today’s children who build tomorrow’s prosperity and we have a whole “incel generation” problem that just sits at home playing computer games. Our technical universities warn every year that prior knowledge is plummeting and basic research has long warned that it is neglected.
11:50 – Johan No.1
A good point – internal demand has increased sharply due to the war, that factor I have completely overlooked 😲
Yep, Boxing Day is your day, no one can take that away from you ✊
12:13 – MatsExtrude
Besides what is consumed regarding the war, the overheated arms industry surely requires more and heavier transports both by trucks and rail (a large part of their locomotives run on diesel even if electricity dominates).
A small (and probably negligible) part of their electricity production depends on diesel and oil. It may be that this share has increased if they have had problems with components for e.g. nuclear power and others. Additionally, they have had problems with dams, the hydropower may possibly have been affected. It may be that more is used there as well.
12:23 – Johan No.1
Another good point, heavy arms industry 👍
I’m now considering extending the right to No.1 by a few more days, will get back after checking with Dengamle if that’s okay. He still has veto power over some decisions.
If he gives his permission, I will write up a howl and send it to the next board meeting and since we have good contacts it might get priority.
12:36 – MatsExtrude
A topic that would need its own blog. You are absolutely right that society (can be different for parents, school, and working life) has difficulty supporting everyone in a good way. Applies to the whole spectrum, not just the gifted who need to develop at their own (faster) pace but also those who are simply shy (a guy I know is not exactly incel but very shy and quiet and therefore mostly sits in front of the computer playing). Now at 27 years old, he has finally gotten a driver’s license and a job and moved out. He is of average intelligence but socially inhibited.
Social skills sometimes seem to be the highest priority.
Those who lack them do not seem to get help to develop them.
But now we are very off-topic even if it is an important subject.
12:37 – MatsExtrude
😆
13:29 – Johan No.1
The critical voices are increasing again.
Previously it was Girkin and Prigozin who made the worst attacks on Putin until he was forced into a major purge which ended with Girkin in gulag and many bloggers getting help to take their own lives.
But now they are back – are they no longer afraid of getting help to take their own lives?
Do you know what else is back – soldiers at units complaining and whining. That also completely disappeared for a while.
The last time this happened was in preparation for Prigozin’s fiasco so it is not impossible that the groundwork is being laid for the next attempt.
13:39 – MatsExtrude
Well, those two never got to be on Russian TV but ran their own digital channels, but I agree. It feels like there is quite a bit of whining now from the military side.
What if it ends with one of your bubbles actually coming true?
Vodkarun 2.0 with disgruntled soldiers marching towards Moscow and fixing a piñata at some closed gas station.
13:44 – Johan No.1
Yes, if Putin ends his miserable existence dangling from a gas station, I demand to be called Mr. Oracle for the rest of my life.
No, not TV but the bloggers I meant.
13:58 – Johan No.1
👍👍
14:00 – MatsExtrude
I promise to start calling you Oracle No.1 if that happens.
What I thought gave a bit extra weight this time was precisely that it was a military person in Russian media who was critical. Not often that has happened.
11:03 – Johan No.1
Meklejonen
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1814570198290018810?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The Russian version of Guldburk, Russian soldier is really the worst job in the world 🤣
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxu5semm7p2d
Ukraine has thus had 2.5 years of this, it is too long for these former engineers, carpenters, and administrators to be able to return to a normal life which in itself is terrible. It is easy to forget that they have sacrificed their future lives for our freedom if they survive.
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1815054039878349268
As we have said for a while now, the Russians are fighting far beyond their sustainable capacity, winter 2023 it was Vuhledar and Bakhmut that drained them – now it is Bakhmut along all fronts and we are definitely heading towards a Russian low point very quickly – they have already drained their strategic reserve and now they are moving units between different front sections for offensive attempts at land grabs and losses are skyrocketing.
The fact that they are taking ground is due to the FAB bombs, as soon as a position is identified they put a FAB on it and it requires a small and mobile defense which then becomes a weakness for UA that Russian commanders have learned to work with.
With their conventional artillery they do not achieve the same accuracy at all and a well-dug trench provides protection, TOS-1 is equally deadly but they are vulnerable and used very restrictively. They drop 3000 FAB bombs per month.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxu5tshnic2p
Went through the backlog of Accentmannen and everywhere it is FAB bombs that wear down the defense and force them to retreat. A single weapon 😐
They have managed to replace their artillery doctrine with FAB.
Cut out a piece about the USA and the presidential election and posted it in the other thread.
A little mental exercise – in practice, as the USA applies non-escalation, is Ukraine’s goal to regain all lost territory to the 1991 borders compatible with the US view and requirement that the war must not escalate. Today, July 22, 2024, this US line still applies and is what we have to relate to.
To be able to reclaim their country, Ukraine probably needs diversions into Russia and Belarus, they need to decimate the Russian Air Force, they need to get the RU army into Russian retreat (wild flight, leaving everything) or alternatively turn the weapons against their own commanders and preferably get a palace coup. Ukraine also needs to knock out ammunition and weapons production as well as fuel production.
Then comes the next question – will any of the above cause the war to escalate?
I believe the answer to the first question is no.
I believe the answer to the second question is no.
To get to point two, the USA must allow Ukraine to pass all the milestones that they today believe are escalating, and that is a large number of milestones.
Well played by Putin one must admit because this is among the most confusing strategies I have ever seen, the USA cannot both avoid escalation and ensure that Ukraine wins but that is exactly what they say they actively support and do together with Germany.
Since they themselves understand this, the question is what their endgame really is?
When you have thought about the above for a while, you may also come to the conclusion that the only way for the USA to avoid (an imagined) escalation is to broker peace, and the only way to get Putin on board with peace is for Ukraine to be forced to cede land.
If you have come to the point where you have started thinking in terms of giving Putin some land, it seems attractive to give him as little as possible so that it appears as a big negotiation victory for the good side.
But then you have not understood, or do not care, that our world order post-1945 then falls.
Putin is not after a certain size of territory he gets in a peace negotiation, he is satisfied with anything.
Just as in the Baltic case he does not care about invading all three countries – he would be satisfied with a small corner in Estonia that NATO did not think was worth retaking.
He challenges our world order and checks our cards.
This is a bit like with a criminal clan in a vulnerable area – “there has only been one murder in two years, nothing to worry about,” but the whole area stands by the roadside and bows when the clan’s children go home from school and give them loose candy (exaggerated but not taken out of thin air otherwise). They show violence capital and then can exert control.
The more countries that experience the current world order as insecure will submit to China’s and Russia’s new world order that they are trying to roll out.
What is happening right now in Ukraine is a geopolitical atomic bomb that until a few months ago looked like it would explode right in Putin’s face but the longer time goes the more uncertain it becomes.
So we sincerely hope that the USA rolls back this strategy of non-escalation because they risk causing very great damage here. They have consistently run it for 2.5 years but now it risks affecting the outcome of the war.
Snatching from LW from his post the other day, how to summarize the situation in two short paragraphs instead of over hundreds of pages for several months 😀
Now there hasn’t really been any direct questioning mostly that I have been negative but here it is directly from the horse’s mouth that I have in no way exaggerated.
One mistake, they did not get all decisions through at all and several potentially war-deciding moves had to be tabled.
“Over the last two and a half years, nothing has harmed Ukraine’s war effort more than the concept of “controlled escalation.” In other words, the so-called “fear of escalation” among partners. We stumbled upon this fear each time a critical decision had to be made. In the end, they were all made. And no further escalation occurred. But irrational fear persisted.
Everyone needs to finally let go of this fear. Putin does not require any reasons to escalate. He acts under the assumption that the West is weak and scared. He is in charge of escalation Instead, we must take the initiative and make Putin fear our next move, not the other way around. Believe me, the moment everyone stops playing Putin’s games, this will be the point of major DE-ESCALATION.”
Same as with Finland, it is probably Ukraine that understands Russia best today and this should shape the West’s policy and strategy rather than us making decisions over the head of the country that is fighting for its own but also the whole West’s future – our world order.
Quite a big caveat on this (pro-Russian account), can’t find the interview anywhere else. However, it is no secret that Klitschko has power ambitions.
However, this is something like what I can imagine is going on right now, it is not easy to be Zelensky. I think you can see it on him in the interviews as well.
The West is playing a high-stakes game with enormous risk that no one should really be able to accept. They probably have, like everyone else, risk lists to relate to and something like this hits the ceiling and should not pass.
The day Zelensky is murdered or deposed it will be lively. There are candidates whose platform is to broker peace for example.
https://x.com/simpatico771/status/1814941375130959903?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
To get back on track, we need to achieve a well-functioning internet of dozens of knocked-out RU aircraft.
Then the F-16s arrive, and finally, we need to hear about UA offensives; it might take a while, but as soon as the opportunity arises, they will come – violent mech offensives.
M46 artillery – do you know what I see? Unprotected artillery that does not apply fire and movement at all. No wonder RU losses are skyrocketing.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxu7ge2the23
Back to production in the EU, the Panther tank is actually the next generation but a transitional step before generation 5 since it is a new turret on a Leopard chassis?
Just the factory in Ukraine, which would cost 2 billion SEK to build, could produce 400 units per year, in one factory. In 2023, it was suggested that production start was 15 months away.
Wild guess is that it never got started, but it gives an indication of the number that can be produced.
“Rheinmetall believes a plant in Ukraine can be built for around €200 million which could produce up to 400 Panther tanks annually”
The production capacity is there, but the political will is not here yet.
There is something called the International Mathematical Olympiad, and the questions look like modern art roughly. It’s always between the USA and China, and the standing joke is that half of the US team is Chinese.
Sweden is apparently ranked 37th on average, behind a whole battery of countries we consider ourselves superior to in everything.
Mathematics is the foundation of prosperity, so maybe we have reason to reflect on how good we really are?
The Russians usually cover their eyes and make the sign of the cross against drone-dropped wing grenades. Look at this and see that Ukraine has trained against drone-dropped wing grenades and that the group follows when the grenade is dropped and then jumps away just in time. And above all, it’s no big deal for them; as soon as the grenade is dropped, they return to formation and continue. I guess the Russians have one grenade per drone, and with the cassettes that UA uses, this becomes a bit harder. But again, Ukraine shows adaptability and the ability to control a situation that the Russians completely lack.
For me, this is an absurdly high level of awareness; they hear a small buzzing FPV drone and jump away just before the grenade detonates.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxu76u5rgt2b
We have seen the 3rd Assault Brigade fight, and they are trench-clearing demigods, but here you have the 15th NG which gets stuck immediately, and there is not much fire and movement, so in the end, the defending Russians roughly know where they are.
https://x.com/Bodbe6/status/1814822645528948992
Lack of 95 octane in Russia.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxu7ht6oee26
Calculation exercise for MXT – if Ukraine has managed to knock out 17% (which is probably the latest) of Russia’s refinery production and Russia countered by stopping all exports of refined products.
How can there be a shortage in Russia?
Didn’t exports exceed the 17% production loss by far?
Here you have another knocked-out oil depot in Tuapse, or if it was a refinery from the man who should be called MXT no.1 next time on Boxing Day between 08:00 – 13:00 👍👍👍
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1815260147259789344?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
My guess MXT – the oil depots are for refined products to some extent, right?
Then UA has knocked out refineries in western Russia, but 17% is the total for all of Russia. However, it is difficult to get refined products from eastern Russia to the western part of the country.
And with the proportion of oil depots that are knocked out – it’s hard to store the products.
So the whole chain is disrupted, which causes shortages that far exceed the 17% production loss.
Then I think 17% is a lie and that the loss is much higher, but I cannot prove it.
Then you could maybe argue that the war is prioritized so there won’t be a fuel shortage for the special operation 😀
And above all, it seems India is now selling refined products to Russia.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kxuabiuhpc2p
France is going so-so, first came “nationalize everything” from the left, and here you see how they disregard good parliamentary practice immediately upon taking office. I think France is on its way to becoming seriously chaotic. Putin was probably equally pleased about this as he controls both extremes.
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1814995645477896597?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Russia pays 2000 USD for pyromaniac acts in the EU, let’s hope the LNG stocks are fire-protected.
https://x.com/chriso_wiki/status/1812747900327203086?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Don’t feel any pressure to succeed in life.
https://x.com/interneth0f/status/1813529156828758065?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And this hipster really messed things up.
https://x.com/historyinmemes/status/1813046144697836038?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
It is still my belief that we are now entering the most important months of the war, and above all, I think Putin might become a bit risk-taking because Orban blocks the EU, he himself blocks the UN, and the ongoing election campaign blocks the USA.
It is probably in that light one should see the RU offensive right now – all in.
It is quite possible that he tries something similar to the October 7 move because right now Putin’s stars are aligned, and they won’t be again for a long time – this is his chance.