12:32 – Johan No.1
Highly self-experienced, I have now learned that one never brokers peace, the olive branches are a pile of smoking black ash.
Below I discuss the current state and everything can of course change. Now Erik14 speculated that RU can manage offensive operations for a month or two more and we have already established that RU attacks far beyond its long-term sustainable capacity, and I stand by that Ukraine can carry out offensive operations in 2024 and apparently I have ISW with me in this assumption.
I wonder if this is confusing or not? – We know that the USA is in direct contact with the RU defense minister regarding peace talks that they have conducted over Ukraine’s head and now UA is going to China to talk peace and apparently they are best buddies according to statements made, even that China respects Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
It is always fun to speculate but we must discuss the situation as it is today and how it develops. The fact is that Ukraine has not received the advanced aircraft at the end of July as we guessed is the critical line for offensive operations, they are not allowed to strike targets in Russia to an extent that would be effective and they are probably not allowed to cross the border up north. Yes, Kier Starmer promised (again) that their Storm Shadow they can do as they please with but have we seen anything like that – in words and actions this differs.
Everything can naturally change if the USA decides to release all F-16s (UA says they have more trained pilots than they will get planes so a not so subtle hint that they can take in more planes) and removes all geographical restrictions – but that is something we hope for, not something we see in action, yet.
Why Gripen could not come when it was now early June is a bit unclear to me since F-16 still has not appeared – that argument falls.
Zelensky now says in several statements that UA wants to negotiate and that they want to improve their negotiating position with offensives but he also says that not all areas need to be taken back if you go back to some recent speeches. Then he says that the active phase of the war should come to an end before the turn of the year and that is five months away – all stated by Zelensky recently in a series of speeches, and we are at the end of July and F-16s stand fully fueled at bases in Romania an hour’s flight away and are waiting for clearance from the USA.
And now articles are starting to appear that citizens in Ukraine can consider exchanging land for peace sk1t in Omni, the point is that it is the discussion that is ongoing now.
https://omni.se/t/ukraina/38981387be6826cc0e1f521e5c40565aa16065ee
And regarding the election in the USA, bookmakers’ odds are quite interesting and there Trump is still the big favorite – this is a reality Zelensky has to relate to right now.
https://news.sky.com/story/betting-data-shows-harriss-chances-are-on-the-up-but-trump-is-still-leading-13183383
On the ground it is RU that is going on the offensive over 1/3 of the front lines and they are advancing. The reason they are advancing is spelled FAB bombs and Ukraine is not getting the tools to take them out, the West simply does not want to give UA the ability to take out the FAB bombers, and the West also sees how RU is advancing right now.
Then RU has now brought quite a lot of better used missile-carrying aircraft to air bases that they usually use for their war crimes – high risk of missiles ahead so it is important that Ukraine does not get the ability to take out the missile carriers either. The fact is that Russia has had decent new production of missiles so they should have capacity for quite extensive missile attacks ahead and if they have brought forward new TU95s it reasonably suggests that they are thinking along those lines. If one may guess, go hard at Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure during the autumn.
If I may guess further, Sirsky and Zelensky now stand with their beards in the mailbox. They have neatly managed to draw RU into large offensives down in Ukraine and then decimated the defense at Kharkiv hard. Their 3:1 superiority up there presumably meant to thunder north in the northern oblasts and completely disrupt RU offensives down in the occupied areas when this new threat must be handled and Putin panicked – the advantageous position before negotiations that Zelensky has now repeatedly mentioned that they want to achieve.
Budanov has already explained the plan with Belgorod Peoples Republic and other peoples republics so I am really not speculating at all.
Now they stand where they stand and in the occupied areas they are losing ground, if you look at Deepstatemap there are 3-4 beginning offensives underway so things are definitely moving to Ukraine’s disadvantage.
I am also beginning to get the impression that the USA and EU quietly are quite pleased that there will be peace in our time because it is VERY quiet from both the USA and EU right now, how else should one interpret this?
The big thing that has been nagging all the time was the rumor in autumn 2023 that the West would force UA to negotiations and then all support from the West would stop but Zelensky and Ukraine showed in words and actions something completely different. This is starting to feel like a second attempt by the West and that Ukraine may be starting to get weary.
Where are the calls to send more materiel now, the promises of support to Ukraine and above all – do we see it being put into action, where are the Storm Shadows against the airports beyond the 100km line in Russia?
And for all of you who believe in the big offensive in 2025 – does it seem likely right now?
Then I just want to remind everyone that all this is happening on Biden’s and Harris’s watch, Trump is not even close to the WH yet.
We are slowly approaching the point where it MAY become clear to Ukraine that further sacrifices will not lead to any strategic advantages, I elaborate below,
If Ukraine cannot manage to expel Russia to the 1991 borders because the USA considers that it would lead to escalation and pulls the reins so it does not happen, that is a truth we have to relate to.
(we also do not know if EU membership is being used as pressure here but Zelensky has mentioned NATO and EU membership in connection with peace recently).
Is there then any value in reclaiming any more land at all, really?
Maybe they take back Crimea and lose 20,000 more, but does that really make much difference in the total?
And above all – at the first sign that things might be going too well, the USA hits the brakes out of fear of escalation.
So we could reach the point where Ukraine starts to understand that they cannot (are not allowed to!!) reclaim all the territory, Zelensky has indeed already stated this so I’m just opening open doors here, and that they are then prepared to give up territory for an end to the war.
Does Ukraine today have any strong negotiating position at all – they are on the defensive, RU holds the bargaining chips in the form of conquered territory and they are not getting the equipment they need to wage the war as they want, and they are also not allowed to wage the war the way they want because the West wants to avoid escalation.
This is how things look today in 2024 and we can only sincerely hope that everything is a huge maskirovka and that the USA and EU are quietly preparing Ukraine’s violent decisive offensive to avoid global escalation, but if we look at how it has been throughout the war, the probability of this is unfortunately not very high.
Scholz is once again crystal clear so that no one misunderstands – I Germany Have The Right To Override International Law and The Law of Nations for Gas Prices.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1816091561832161579?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We have thus MAYBE reached the point where Ukraine as a country is starting to get fed up and that was always the risk with the West’s strategy to try to run this war on some kind of low flame so as not to make Putin too angry – I think I have raised this about high risk and risk list a thousand times in the thread.
Ukraine has thus liberated 50% of the conquered territory but when things started going well the West completely stopped supplying ammunition and since then the reins have been quite tight, I feel, after all the statements we have received mainly from Germany and the USA.
This war will never go better than how the soldier in the trenches fights and he must feel that his sacrifice leads to something and if it doesn’t, what is he then supposed to die for?
Right now the Ukrainian soldiers are retreating on several front sections.
At the first hint of a ceasefire, the entire West will stop sending equipment except for what has already been paid for because then national defenses will be built up since Russia will attack within a maximum of 5 years.
Read the German version (stolen from Erik14 yesterday) that RU will be able to replenish with 1000 – 1500 tanks annually and that the EU is helplessly behind. These are direct factual errors and the question is whether this whole thing is a very clever Russian influence operation to get EU countries to look after their own interests first instead of supporting Ukraine. Or maybe the Germans are complete bloody idiots who can’t manage the simple analysis we can, but I don’t think so.
Now in 2024 the flow of information is so transparent that it is no longer only the intelligence services who can get the numbers. What the Germans seem to have done is take the numbers for 2023 that Shoigu announced and we know that only 400 of the 1500 were modified tanks above T62 level, a vanishingly small part new production and the rest modified T62s or completed from stock.
And above all we know that this has an end date because there are 700 tanks left in stock that can be completed and new production of T90M is vanishingly small, and a newly produced one had a gun barrel from 1991, and gun barrel production in Russia is 100 per year.
“Bundeswehr general says Russian Federation could attack NATO in 5-8 years
Bundeswehr General Carsten Breuer told the Sächsische Zeitung newspaper that in 5-8 years, the Russian army will be so manned and equipped that a Russian attack on NATO territory will be quite possible.
The Inspector General of the German Armed Forces stated that the Russian army is annually replenished with 1000-1500 tanks, while the five strongest European NATO members have half as many.”
Unfortunately, this is the information that reaches our politicians from the experts and specialists and then it suddenly becomes easier not to send equipment to Ukraine – we must of course look after the best interests of our citizens first. And that is exactly what has happened over 2.5 years and now there is a big Russian threat dangling in front of us (completely fabricated) and sure hope for peace in our time against a small insignificant territorial concession.
If we don’t see any change in the coming months, then Ukraine has reasonably become secondary when it should have been primary, I think, the West has some overarching plan to avoid global escalation and that does not include a smashing win for Ukraine. F-16s could have been delivered in May and more countries could have done like Denmark and emptied reserve stocks and sent fully equipped units. Zelensky recently said that the West has only sent half of what they promised and I know that Germany has used that trick among others.
But as I said, Ukraine has the ability to carry out offensives in 2024 and we can only hope that they get the USA and EU on board that standing and jumping on the Russian burning corpse gives the greatest chance of global de-escalation, not the opposite.
12:56 – Johan No.1
Back to China, I know I’m nagging.
Now China has brokered peace with 14 P..a organizations and is probably owner of P…a for the foreseeable future. Then Kuleba is in China for probes about peace negotiations, we don’t have much yet but it is Ukraine trying to get China on board and not the other way around.
https://apnews.com/article/china-ukraine-russia-war-kuleba-wang-4347271aea8c2493285c9aa761acb518
What would happen if China agrees with P…a that they get to establish themselves in P..a in exchange for no more attacks on I..el? If nothing else, they get a big port in the Mediterranean.
What would happen if China managed to get RU to withdraw to the 1991 borders (with a naval base in Crimea and some other bone to Putin) in exchange for influence in UA as someone in the thread has raised before?
I don’t think this signals strength for the USA and EU at all, actually it signals that China is advancing its positions.
The arch-enemies China-Japan have also opened a dialogue.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/japan-pm-kishida-hold-talks-with-chinas-xi-nov-16-nikkei-2023-11-16/
I have tried to discuss two things – one is that the more Putin manages to challenge the West’s world order, the more people turn to Putin and Xi, and the other is that China is now advancing its positions.
Who among you in the thread would have believed six months ago that China would be one of those behind October 7 and then held a meeting with all the P..a organizations in China?
Or that China sees Belarus as a strategic partner?
If P…a has autonomy, they can choose to involve China as much as they want, and there are lucrative contracts for reconstruction now and then LNG and oil to exploit.
If I..el tries to oppose this from an already weak position today, they will have everyone against them. Harris and Biden have been more than lukewarm towards Netanyahu.
It’s almost as if one starts to suspect that everything follows in order here – be behind October 7, ensure the West explodes in demonstrations, go in and steal G..a and the W…bank from the West, be hailed as a great peacemaker, get contracts to rebuild G..a and steal all LNG and oil, get a port in the Mediterranean and a base in MENA.
My guess is that China will propose a solution where someone else takes over the monitoring of G..a and the W…bank and that I..el has to stay away. They will get all the P..a organizations on board and then it will finally become untenable for I..el. UaE is supposed to send troops there and they are part of BRIICS.
And now I actually have to ask something very seriously –
USA and EU see that Ukraine has gone to China to broker peace.
USA and EU have consistently denied Ukraine the ability to strike targets in Russia, to shoot down advanced aircraft, and to carry out offensive operations (as a consequence of not delivering ammunition and having geographical restrictions).
What do USA and EU think will/would happen here?
USA and EU have verbally stated that they support Ukraine in regaining their country to the 1991 borders.
To me, it seems possible that we either get a ceasefire with frozen fronts and then RU can rearm, or that Ukraine cedes land for peace, and then RU can rearm.
It is completely silent from the leaders of the EU and USA right now and it is China positioning itself as the great peacemaker 😲
Is the West’s plan to verbally promise Ukraine everything and then quietly force them to cede land for peace?
If not, then at least that is what we are heading towards and then Ukraine –
-has since spring 2023 received zero ammunition or weapons from the West and that lasted almost a year, everything was in reserve stocks or units and sent later. Meanwhile, Iran, China, and NK flooded weapons to Russia.
-has had geographical restrictions that have continuously prevented them from striking where it hurts.
-has not received the F-16s promised by May.
I see a China that is now taking several steps upward on the global stage and the USA is completely entangled in its domestic politics and the EU does not know how to handle this.
Fine if the EU and USA accept that China does what it does but my concern is that the USA and EU will keep calm only to then have the overreaction of the millennium in a few years and then the global war will be upon us, right.
The USA does NOT have a strategy to let China take over and in the end it will lead to war 😐
I say this again – now during 2024 the big strokes must be painted and we are moving very quickly towards something that will lead to global escalation even if it is sold as peace in our time. Chamberlain moment again, is no one reading history?
China and Russia have already taken over Africa today, one can suspect that the decolonization movement which is now completely silent aimed to make Western politicians afraid of African issues, because the West is currently backing out of Africa.
It is this bad, why isn’t BLM completely crazy about this, or the UN, or Amnesty, or the Red Cross, or the peace movements.
https://x.com/glasnostgone/status/1816080136673874161?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
South America has a long history of the USA supporting military right-wing governments and communist guerrillas so it will be very easy to create unrest there.
China sees Belarus as a strategic partner, they are directly involved in the P..a issue and they are increasing contacts with Hungary, Serbia, and Slovakia.
Will the USA sit silently and watch or will they want to rewind?
If they want to rewind, they must declare war – then who is on the right side of history?
Yes, China, which first peacefully entered and established itself mostly everywhere right under the nose of the USA in consultation with sitting governments (rogue governments admittedly).
40 countries want to join BRIICS and if the USA appears as the aggressor there will probably be more and maybe China manages to get some countries in the EU on board, Xi visited France for example.
The longer the West chooses to do nothing, the bigger the overreaction will be, assuming there will be an overreaction but I don’t even want to discuss how the world would develop if our new world order becomes half the world controlled by Russia and China and everything ends in a global cold war.
And everything can still be stamped out in Ukraine with a stinging defeat for Russia – but the hourglass is on its last grains now is my strong opinion.
13:08 – Johan No.1
We still couldn’t find the phone number for the Swedish warrior so it fell on that – after an internal discussion in the leadership group this morning we can confirm that you still keep your place on the victory boat, a formal decision will come by mail within three working days and if you have BankID you can log in at örfila-upp-putin.se and see the decision. If a letter comes with lots of painted skulls containing a letter with various unspeakable things before this formal and binding decision you can cancel it.
I also found a very small green olive branch leaf that was undamaged in one corner in the pitch-black smoldering ash pile behind the office 👍
13:16 – MatsExtrude
👍 Thanks for enduring an essay!
It feels really tough when Ukraine continues to retreat, it’s been 10 months since Russia started its offensive.
But maybe we should remember the reasoning we had around Bachmut and later Avdiivka. That retreating while the Russians take enormous losses was the right thing then.
It still applies.
Ukraine is probably just waiting for the Russians’ low point while continuing to recruit and awaiting promised weapons. They are already fighting back in some places.
They still hit hard deep behind enemy lines, depots and refineries burn now and then.
It’s not only the Russian army that takes losses, it’s also the Russian economy.
If it is as you suspect that the West really tries to force Ukraine into premature peace it will of course end with that, but we can’t be sure.
Wasn’t it Zelenskyy himself who wanted to hold a peace meeting?
The plan may very well be partly to not seem impossible, that they are happy to discuss peace, and partly to get all countries on board on what terms apply (the 1991 borders). If that is agreed upon, any later peace meetings will have that as a starting point. If Putin refuses, I assume that support for Ukraine continues (as long as Ukraine does not want otherwise).
I do not believe that Ukraine will be forced or blackmailed into peace by the West.
The soldiers are the ones who most stubbornly refuse to give up against Russia. The surveys that have been done show that support is waning somewhat but it is still a majority that supports the war. Zelenskyy hardly dares to agree to peace on lousy terms if he does not want to risk a military coup as well.
Soldiers who have seen their comrades die for something that ends in nothing are not to be crossed.
You just have to have the stomach for it and wait for the low point.
By the way, I hope you didn’t burn the peace dove along with the olive branches, I thought I heard DenGamle going around calling for it?
13:28 – Johan No.1
But Russia is not invaded as a country, they don’t have the same intensity of rocket rain over them, they have China, Iran, and NK as backstops, and they don’t have the Russian subversive activities to try to handle.
The reason I am worried is if Ukraine can’t manage it by 2025 – 2026.
Otherwise, it would be excellent if Ukraine uses a ceasefire to regroup and then crush Russia and reclaim their country.
Don’t you think that a ceasefire or peace solution includes Russia getting sanction relief?
Pretty sure that the defector Scholz will wave such a paper before the ink is dry.
13:31 – MatsExtrude
It feels like the EU is paralyzed while the USA is engaged in navel-gazing (the election).
Risk that it won’t loosen up until January/February.
Regarding Ukraine, money and deliveries have still been promised that should last until next year (we in Sweden set up a three-year plan, Germany was supposed to reduce the allocation but has budgeted for next year and I hope most countries have that foresight).
But when it comes to tackling China, there doesn’t seem to be any plan and no one has probably even thought that a total victory for Ukraine as soon as possible would delay their activities.
Maybe some journalist who isn’t on summer vacation and reads this can get inspired.
13:39 – Johan No.1
I see only one problem – the package for peace discussions surely includes that no offensives or fighting start when the discussions begin and are ongoing. Normally, a temporary ceasefire is considered a fair start and then you begin the discussions.
It would be smart to introduce this ceasefire as soon as RU enters this expected low point.
So the bait is peace talks but the hidden purpose is to get a water break for Putin.
I have now become infinitely disappointed in the West over 2.5 years so I think they will jump on the slightest sign of peace talks and stop sending material except where deliveries have started or payment has been made. But maybe this time will be the time when the West surprises us positively?
13:53 – MatsExtrude
The last peace meeting didn’t mean a pause, admittedly Putin didn’t participate that time but I don’t think there will be any at the next meeting either.
I don’t think we are close enough to real peace negotiations. UNLESS Putin actually starts feeling it’s unsustainable.
13:57 – Johan No.1
Zelensky can also threaten not to help at all if Russia starts a new war when there is peace in Ukraine but I think he really wants EU membership.
Yep, Russia will have a drone weapon and know how to defend against a drone weapon.
The EU will not have a drone weapon for quite a while and above all not have the practical knowledge of how to defend itself. The EU does not manufacture millions of drones today and not all units get to learn drone warfare – they have just started thinking about how to set requirements and training around it.
The USA recently tested a composite drone-counterforce consisting of six different systems – EV, railgun, missiles, and radar. It seems to have worked well but the problem is that you have to have this everywhere at the group level because drones are literally everywhere.
Having a couple of very expensive systems and then gaps won’t get you anywhere.
14:01 – Johan No.1
China and Russia were not involved then and China’s first point is a ceasefire to even start discussions.
You see what comes first below.
“China has released its much-anticipated position paper on the Russia-Ukraine war, in which it calls for a ceasefire and talks between the two parties.”
14:06 – Johan No.1
The next point after ceasefire and starting talks seems to be lifting sanctions for China. That’s not to say China will get support for its peace plan but it is their plan for peace in our time.
“Released by the foreign ministry, the plan urges an end to Western sanctions against Russia, the establishment of humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians and steps to ensure the export of grain after disruptions caused global food prices to spike last year.”
14:12 – Johan No.1
Pretty sure Trump has two tasks – try to win the election and lock the USA, and if you don’t win the election, try to lock the USA through legal protests, demonstrations, and accusing everyone of everything.
14:18 – MatsExtrude
Or start a civil war…
14:21 – Johan No.1
Yeah, that too for sure.
14:55 – Johan No.1
The problem is unfortunately not that I am negative-negative but that I describe the situation as it looks right now 😀
Of course, the situation in Russia is worse than we know and everything we have learned through history is that that is when they strike with everything they have.
Now we don’t see that at all in action, on the contrary, proposals for negotiations are starting to be aired.
I am probably also the only one in the whole thread now who believes that Ukraine can carry out offensive operations in 2024.
Mechanized offensive.
15:14 – MatsExtrude
Hasn’t China already called for that from the start? Without trying to put pressure to actually make it happen?
I think there’s a good chance they won’t attend the next meeting if that really is their demand.
We don’t even know if Putin will really show up? Or have I missed something? Is it clear when and where it will be held?
16:31 – Johan No.1
That Ukraine can and should launch a violent mechanized offensive this year is indisputable and we have reason to assume that RU is fighting far beyond its capacity right now – so far, agreement from the thread’s most moderate realist 👍
That the West is playing 5D chess right now is maybe what’s a bit harder to swallow. I know we form an opinion based on what we read in open sources but we also have a summer season to deal with.
But yes, fooling that bastard Scholz might be part of the plan because he has been out several times in recent weeks insisting that there will be no incursion into Russia – maybe that is one of G’s plans to fool Scholz’s boxers just because we can.
We have discussed that Ukraine is now “drawing out” Russian defense to new positions that are disadvantageous but they are only disadvantageous until RU builds new defenses so it absolutely has a best-before date.
Then the possibilities at the northern front close down the more units RU sends there, for example, from a few dozen FSB to army corps.
I am quite sure that with the Azov push completed and Belgorod invaded, this war is over.
16:41 – MatsExtrude
Scholz might be in on the maskirovka..
Ukraine has already received Taurus and everything else and is just waiting for the right moment so that when they strike, they strike so hard that it’s not only Putin who needs diapers but every Russian!
#TheLowPointIsComing!
11:41 – Johan No.1
They may not want to become monkeys specifically, but it is often people who have not succeeded well in how the country functions today who feel that they would benefit from a major change, preferably a revolution so they can just take what others have built up. They feel that there is a great injustice and want to take revenge – with no thought that they themselves could work themselves to death and achieve success.
A good example is all the high-ranking N…a during WW2 who came from all kinds of uninteresting backgrounds but seized the opportunity in flight. Or the failed artist and also Bohemian corporal.
I have long thought that Putin is the same, his upbringing as a severely bullied pale rat with a prostitute mother and no father, who then went through the entire military upbringing which we now know is not so fun, has such a great hatred for all who have succeeded better that he takes it out on the whole world if he gets the chance. He projects his own failure onto others just like our own far left, far right, and Islamists do – all are revolutionary and want to tear down social structures.