12:54 – MatsExtrude
Thanks for the yellow wall! 👍
FAB is probably right now the wunderwaffe that has given Russia a sufficient advantage. They drop around 100 per day, and even though that is significantly fewer than the number of artillery shells they fire, they are almost impossible to protect against. They have to go away.
I think Ukraine should have received enough air defense by now, or they have only been delivered on paper, or alternatively, they will not be used at the front at all but are intended to protect the F-16s when they show up.
15:10 – Johan No.1
Does Sweden have the same high level for all units, like the Home Guard?
I am going to join there, so I can happily report that they do not when I started; if I manage to pass the first obstacle on the obstacle course, I reward myself with a Mariestads beer.
The Ukrainian Home Guard has its own reconnaissance, drone units, mechanized units, and SOF units.
When I did my military service, there was one night vision device per platoon.
What they have that almost no one else in the West has is 14 years of experience fighting Russia.
Then you have quite a few of these volunteers who have left, many former US Marines or special forces who felt the war was too intense and had already done several tours in Afghanistan and Iraq.
But the Ukrainian teacher and librarian are still in the Guard.
15:12 – Johan No.1
If you remember the hit-and-run that we figured out in the thread was Patriot quite quickly, they shot down over 10 aircraft, right?
Then one or two fire units were knocked out.
And now they haven’t done that again.
So I guess either they are not allowed or they don’t dare to sacrifice more, and then the FAB bombs keep coming.
Yep, RU has enormous production of them and drops around 3,000 per month – almost unlimited supply.
Those are the droppers you have to get at.
12:14 – Johan No.1
China has humiliated Russia before
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3ky6ip5hkum27
Absolutely huge if true – not that tank barrels explode from NK ammunition but that NK tank ammunition has been delivered – they are short on that too 👍
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3ky6isgztb22o
Some good news from Maks.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3ky6gwneapu2u
This one from GeneralSVR was interesting, we know it is an influence operation but why is he discussing a transfer of power?
https://x.com/generalsvr_en/status/1816753770069467627?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Now the US has proof that Iran supports the P..a demonstrations just as we wrote in the thread, useful id1ots (at least) for Russia and Iran.
We also know that Iran uses criminal gangs in Sweden for sabotage or attacks.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3ky6ggarexm23
We absolutely have problems in Sweden and I would probably take a look at Islamists as well besides the right and left extremists going forward because it is becoming quite clear that Russia and Iran are fueling everything they can here and these are grateful groups to radicalize.
Sweden is one of the world’s most equal and well-off countries to live in and has a huge commitment to its less affluent citizens but when you read anything from these three groups it seems we are worse than Zimbabwe – can’t they just be deported to the countries they praise, none of them seem to want to live here anyway 😀
Harris lands completely right on the P…a question by the way. There will be full mudslinging so for my part I am mostly interested in where the candidates stand on big issues that affect us and here she landed completely right.
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1816614233640968227?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Russia has a couple of ways out of this mess they have gotten themselves into,
-declare a smashing victory and withdraw all units from Ukraine. They will consider that when UA puts too much pressure and if Putin has FSB with him it might work.
-talk the West into a ceasefire and frozen fronts with promises of peace in our time which is ongoing.
-try a transfer of power where the new administration immediately ends the war in exchange for sanctions relief but then there must be a willingness for this from the new administration.
-the pressure cooker explodes and Russia turns inward and for us in the West this is an attractive option because then all subversive activity disappears at once when they have to fight to survive in Russia instead.
Fitch has downgraded UA from C to CC, I don’t know much about this but it seemed quite unnecessary.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/fitch-downgrades-ukraine-further-into-default-zone-over-20-billion-debt-2024-07-24/
What we need now is for the F-16s to arrive, they are standing at airbases in Romania and actually waiting.
Then the US needs to go out and say that all geographic restrictions are lifted – Biden has just promised that Ukraine is prioritized so up to proof that he stands up for everyone and is not just blowing hot air.
https://x.com/potus/status/1816537651962392997?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And then Ukraine needs to carry out its mech offensive into the northern oblasts and towards the land bridge to Crimea – this capability exists TODAY.
This is how the war is won and above all, how Putin is forced to the negotiating table as quickly as possible – he will have to ask to get Belgorod and his trapped army corps down in Crimea back.
UA has offensive capacity for this, that is indisputable but offensive capacity alone is not enough, F-16s must be in place, the weather must allow offensive operations, ammunition must be available and they must be allowed to fight wherever they want so 2/4 is with Biden, ¼ with Ukraine and ¼ with the weather.
One more year like 2023 and it’s over so the fact is that the US talk about geographic restrictions after 2023 is at least very strange.
Sweden had about 300 PBV302 almost?
They are in place so there we have another equipped brigade.
China has no one’s best interests in mind, for them the world is a chessboard that they move pieces around on so that Ukraine is there and probes, nothing good will come of it. Provided Ukraine hasn’t already analyzed that NATO membership and EU membership will take so long that they might as well become a strategic trade partner with China. Now we have seen more cards than the first two and it is clear that they are advancing their positions.
China sells weapons in Africa so directly guilty of the wars down there.
https://x.com/adfmagazine/status/1815868310606725218?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Now the extent at Prohres is complete and according to what is written two battalions from 31st Mechanized got out. It is a very experienced unit. Looking at the maps there is another extent building up just west of Horlivka if RU manages to break through New York.
There are two more at the Donetsk front and then Vuhledar is threatened from the east.
At Pischane RU is also moving towards Oskil along some kind of ridge.
From what I can see it is all experienced UA brigades along the entire eastern front and they have previously defended quite comfortably in numerical inferiority and RU takes high losses in offense – 1:5 or more.
According to Gregg RU has started bypassing hedgehog defenses in small towns but it went terribly badly in 2022 when they did that.
So what has changed?
I think they bypass and then there is a FAB bomb rain over the small isolated town – it is the FAB bombs that complement the artillery effectively right now.
They also knock out prepared fortifications in a completely different way than the artillery does. Saw some film where a group was laughing at some artillery exploding on a trench crest and then one of the guys said something like “if it had been a FAB bomb we would have been buried”.
We have laughed ourselves blue at the moped shooting but the other day they showed ambition with a larger mech fall.
https://x.com/friaukraina/status/1816188837791436887?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
During 2023 and during the autumn except for Avdiivka not much happened and then the Russians thought well outside the box and dug a tunnel and attacked in fog.
Then UA according to their own statements received ammunition and UA dominates in drone weapons.
So why are experienced units retreating now?
I think RU has now got the chain from observation to action in order and maybe also become more accurate with FAB.
That they now try to bypass villages is also new, earlier they aimed at the town and went straight at it and died.
The nightmare will be when the Russians realize they should drop thermobaric weapons by air guided in like FAB but luckily we are not there yet.
This has been somewhat overshadowed with the US having a large stockpile of thermobaric ammunition that is to be scrapped which they have not sent to Ukraine actually, in all that they have not done in this war.
We probably have a pretty good idea about UA offensive operations once they get going, but I am worried about one more thing – with the FAB bombs, I think defense could be costly.
We have received information that RU has moved units to the southern front, so I am curious to see what will happen there because UA has weakened along the southern front and pulled units to the northern front.
I have written that the strategic reserve is gone, which is likely, but RU has some army corps that they intend to keep for national defense or the Baltics, so they still have a strategic offensive reserve. Since the West has been overly clear that they do not threaten Russia in any way 😐
We will have to keep waiting for the F-16s, lifted restrictions, and Ukraine’s violent mech offensive that will only come once materiel on the critical line is delivered 👍