12:29 – Johan No.1
There has been wild speculation in the thread about the purpose of the Kursk offensive, and it is probably quite simple – it is a straightforward attack vector that was relatively undefended with a very high pain index for Putin.
On the one hand, Ukraine suddenly gets MASSIVE bargaining chips, but then they also get openings on other fronts when brigades have to be moved in panic, which has now started to happen.
Now Putin demands that the Kursk problem be restored by October 1, and we all know what that means, right – enormous pressure on the battle command that sacrifices everything and everyone to save their own skins.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l27mrqzcyk2j
You can therefore be very confident that more UA offensives will follow. In the corner of the Kreminna forest – Siversky Donets, UA has prepared for a bit of land grab, and the whole northern Luhansk is starting to look attractive again.
Then amphibious operations are increasing – what do you think is just as poorly defended as up at the northern front?
Yes, you guessed right, all the beaches facing Azov. There are lots of other Davyidiv Brid possibilities where the task forces have to go up and band on the highway and can be knocked out.
Ukraine has understood that this works, and they read it in the big campaign plan, which is fun (megalomania).
Then Belarus, Kaliningrad, and Transnistria are possible targets for liberation raids and to drum up some positive vibes in some republics in the Russian Federation – all this is simmering.
We already know that this has been going on for a long time, and we have thoroughly discussed the liberation raids against the rail network, which has now virtually paralyzed parts of it if Russian sources are to be believed.
Now the doom-mongers will immediately say “it will never happen,” but never forget that the doom-mongers swore that Ukraine would never attack into Russia because then it would be nuclear war, and I was a daydreamer in my parents’ basement, but here we are now 😀
Kursk will be accompanied by BPR, KPR, and Bryansk people’s republic, but that is just for negotiating position – we have discussed this many times.
That said, Ukraine would welcome autonomy for these Oblasts and a significantly weaker Moscow Russia, but somewhere the US probably has its limit too, who knows with their rather messy red lines.
Referring back to the Great Campaign Plan that at least Erik14 read, Bakhmut was the flytrap, and in 2024 it became the Avdiivka bulge instead – same principle.
Then there was an addition after the first Belgorod raids when we discovered that the border was completely undefended to attack into Russia and/or Belarus as a diversion.
The purpose was to throw the battle command into panic and to pull units from occupied areas.
All this Budanov has already told us, so no one should feel it is new information since it has been posted repeatedly in the thread.
Kursk probably went better than they thought, I guess, and that makes them now look at all possible contingencies.
I also checked my last post from August 7, and I think it still holds. Note that we discussed amphibious combat there, and we have now seen it with a larger raid against Kinburn Spit.
https://cornucopia.se/2024/08/uppdateras-rysk-attackhelikopter-nedskjuten-av-fpv-stor-ukrainsk-rad-in-i-kursk-oblast-hur-genomforde-amfibierad-till-tendralandtungan/
In that post on August 6, I intended to post a short piece about the start of this year’s offensive that would paint the broad strokes and decide the war, along with a link to the Rohan attack in The Lord of the Rings, but since I was mobilized at short notice for another mission, it was about a day too early – I took a chance, and it turned out right, but without a spectacular post that would have been recorded in history books, so I missed my chance and now have to wait for the next war 😐
Ukraine did what I hoped but did not dare to believe – ignore Germany and the USA and press on. No one else believed it either, and it was presented as some kind of natural law by the doom-mongers.
Now a precedent has been set, and UA will get all the materiel anyway (but the USA is now slowing all deliveries, returning to that sore point). Right now Zelensky is putting the pressure on everyone, and it has become more than difficult for Germany to try to threaten with withdrawn support – they had to fully back down on that.
Very well maneuvered by UA, and everything has an end date, but right now and into 2025 they hold the baton, and the West must comply.
We have also discussed the slow strangulation of UA by the USA and how motivation plummeted for both soldiers and commanders and everyone in the country – it seemed like the Kursk operation was like a strong cup of coffee, and now everyone wants to manage to kill a Russian before the war is over.
Now Zelensky’s administration has announced that the only way to succeed was to keep it secret and not tell the West.
According to this, there have been no consequences for the US commanders who forced UA to attack into Tokmak in 2023
https://x.com/andrewperpetua/status/1830015598752882850?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Right now the US has completely stopped delivering materiel as presumed revenge and punishment. Germany tried the same but had to immediately back down because Zelensky also seems to be a master of guilt trips. I will address this later but choose to interpret the situation as such that Ukraine now has this under control which means the US does not have it under control, which is what is required to prevent a slow strangulation of the US. 1-0 to Ukraine so far then and positive-positive.
By the way, August 6 was the start date for the window for the violent Ukrainian mech offensive of 2024 which caught all experts and specialists off guard as usual and everything had to be recalibrated.
13:13 – MatsExtrude
13:16 – Johan No.1
How should one interpret that post?
13:19 – MatsExtrude
I just wanted to test and see if you got scared by the silence. Did it work?
Maybe some drums in the background were needed?
13:20 – MatsExtrude
Nice that you’re back (with several yellow walls) and nice that you were right about the Ukrainian counteroffensive! 👍
13:22 – Johan No.1
Actually got very worried 😳
13:22 – Johan No.1
Yeah, it’s fun to be right 😎
13:28 – MatsExtrude
It will be interesting to see what else they can come up with, or if they might be satisfied with Kursk and the nearby surroundings for the time being.
Otherwise, now that Ukraine has the advance in Kursk and at the same time must stop the Russians at Pokrovsk, everyone should make sure to deliver more (and remove all restrictions).
Starting to look forward to the US election being over so they have to show their true colors, no matter who wins.
The Russian red lines are just imaginary and exist only in Putin’s head and in Russian propaganda.
13:30 – MatsExtrude
Ah, sorry, just wanted to scare a little!
13:59 – Johan No.1
Yes, time for the election and then the proof, David D is not positive.
The likelihood that Kursk is part of a larger operation is high but then anything can happen including the US
12:24 – Johan No.1
The Ukrainian shooting is the same as ours in the thread, we usually say.
https://x.com/pepel_klaasa/status/1829581886126997791?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
You want to start a post with something thought-provoking that everyone has been thinking about for weeks, and what is better than Dudayev, “when the Ukrainian sun rises, Russia falls” – that is what we are now seeing. The broad strokes are now being painted in 2024 as someone in the thread suggested would happen.
https://x.com/nijhuisclaretta/status/1825330979558375447?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then I thought I’d try to connect it to something historical and when I googled Sweden to spice up my post with lots of violent stuff, the below came up. Ukraine simply has a “Carolean discipline” that seems to have escaped many. I push it about the world’s best infantry for a reason. We have seen it for 2.5 years but many still doubt, even Jesus would have started to get impatient with this level of Thomas the doubter when he makes Irish coffee from swamp water.
“I’m sorry I have to disappoint you, but the Swedes were known to attack under complete silence.
An attack began with the footmen advancing under total silence until they could see the white in the enemies’ eyes. Then the lines stopped, and the Swedes fired a solid volley into the enemies’ ranks. Directly after causing total mayhem, they bayonet charged (still under silence) and cut them down.
The discipline under fire was legendary, and their reputation scared the wits out of the enemies. Giving the Swedish army an advantage from the start.
The silent charge, or as the Swedes called it: Det Svenska maneret (the Swedish manner) was of course accompanied by drums making it sound even scarier”.
Now that we have spiced the post with things that make everyone wonder why it is more frightening to attack in silence than with deafening roar, we dive into the accounts at the fronts.
I count a UA strategic offensive reserve of 17 brigades and there are existing offensive reserves at the fronts – including Kharkiv, Kreminna, Avdiivka, and the Dnipro front. The strategic reserve was not used for the Kursk offensive which is highly significant.
Then everyone apparently worries about the “newly mobilized” at Pokrovsk but no one seems to ask where the battle-hardened maneuver brigades are, and they should. Ukraine is doing exactly as in 2023 and keeping a huge punch in reserve. They have deployed a small part at Kursk and got full payoff but still have a lot of firepower left in their bags.
What losses has RU taken?
I estimated that over 50% of all reinforcements to Kursk were knocked out on the road before they arrived the first week – UA executed that week excellently.
Several battalion groups in soft vehicles were knocked out
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1821820902075412650?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/euromaidanpr/status/1821821353030205745?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1821811639760392473?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/aleksandrx13/status/1822469891867169071?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Wild guess below with RU losses,
3-4 brigades wiped out initially, in RU’s first counterattack 3-4 more were wiped out. In the second attempt at counterattack 3-4 more were knocked out and inside the Seim watercourse there are 1-2 brigades if not more.
https://x.com/ukraine_map/status/1825410902612484413?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then UA has two more envelopment operations underway in Kursk besides Sejm, very violent thus 💥
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l35ygbrnlz2h
At Kharkiv, certainly a dozen brigades have already been wiped out during RU attacks on Kharkiv over several months.
Consider here that UA attacks at a numerical disadvantage and inflicts greater losses on RU than their own, and when RU attacks their losses are 1:5 – 1:8.
So on the northern front, 20-25 RU brigades are already unusable from what we see on the maps, they may be battalion size and have a lot of infantry left or something. Absolutely low on armor up at Kursk and they have used rocket artillery more than at the fronts down in Ukraine.
This is also the reason UA continues forward despite a strong numerical disadvantage, the forest of red crosses is not as real as we are led to believe but actually quite weak and grumpy in their old buses and rusty Nagans.
Of course, there are a few reasons for this, UA masters combined arms warfare, has night fighting capability and an infiltrated SOF that can make anyone worried.
Here is their deep battle.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l362bs5vi325
UA can of course attack into Bryansk or east of Kharkiv area – in both areas it is poorly defended. There are UA strategic reserves for this as well as redundancy in the units at the Kharkiv area not yet fully utilized.
RU has by no means stabilized up at Kursk and it has been almost a month which is more than enough to bring forward existing tangible reinforcements – you all know those new divisions that were to be newly formed with the latest equipment – Terminators and T90M.
This reasonably means RU has no strategic reserves, and no formidable reserves at existing fronts easily accessible – Kursk is priority 1.
The fact that the war’s most depleted unit, the 155th, was sent to Kursk is quite telling, closely followed by the 810th which is not far behind in having been wiped out and reformed. It is staggering that several units have been wiped out 4-5 times during the war.
And on August 23, the third wave of reinforcements arrived on the road to be deployed in a counterattack and retake Kursk before October 1 – now today, September 2, this counterattack has still not started.
This is an ambitious attempt from RU sending VDV who have been an offensive reserve down at the southern front among others. They intend to strike Ukrainian units on Russian soil.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1825866211273413047?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Now this is not enough otherwise, I think LW summed the number of brigades on the way and RU needs 1:5 or better to have a chance to push back UA.
There seem to be about a dozen brigades on the road so my conclusion when I world-leading studied this on August 25 between drinks on the beach was that RU’s offensive to retake Kursk oblast will fail when it eventually starts.
UA has also stopped at dominant terrain and begun preparing for defense.
These 10 brigades should have a half-life of maybe two weeks if Putin stresses the commanders enough.
What do they do then?
They then have two choices – to let Kursk hang or to pull 50 brigades from occupied areas for a counteroffensive that has a chance to succeed and it will take at least a month to get that organized – just in time for the mud season.
In the low point in between, Ukraine will be able to open a new attack vector into Bryansk and east of Vovchansk if they want and then everything is hopelessly messy for RU again.
Now we sincerely hope and pray to the gods that UA has stopped the FAB bombs despite the US not helping here. We have guessed that this is a criterion for success. RU has started dropping FAB with SU24 now for example and the number has dropped sharply after the decimation of aircraft at the bases.
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1822969800957501547?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
However, UA does not have infinite indirect capabilities and reconnaissance abilities; they have pooled quite a lot at the Dnepr and northern front, but then they are a bit short on that on other fronts. We also discussed this a lot—that locally they can gain complete drone superiority but not along all fronts. This partly governs what UA can do.
Airborne landing, do you remember someone in the thread wrote that we would see it when he added up all the helicopters delivered? It definitely happened, starting in Kursk, and we will see more of it.
https://x.com/osinterer/status/1823760548040990755?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We already knew all this that UA had and could do back in 2023, but it went as it did then for the reasons we described at the time, which turned out to be true. UA has gone so far as to claim that the West directly leaked the entire battle plan to RU, and this year they kept everything secret.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l35ynpxmze2o
This year we got to see how it should have actually gone.
Ukraine also has reconnaissance units deep behind enemy lines for fire raids and scouting, and a considerable number of Russian reinforcements are likely burning by the roadside, is my guess.
Then UA has the ability to fight effectively with composite units – it demands its man, woman, or other gender, I can tell you, because they pull together about a dozen battalions from different brigades to form a battle group that solves qualified tasks.
On August 25, it was suggested that amphibious combat was underway – do you remember the post on August 6 where I referred to someone’s earlier long yellow post that we should watch out for amphibious combat and mechanized forces crossing the border in the north? Now it seems the amphibious combat is underway, which means a high level of ambition in 2024 as stated.
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1827099487304573295?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1827096346802704859?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then look where the 3rd assault, 12th Azov, and tank brigades are located, and you can guess where UA plans to attack.
At Pokrovsk, UA is steering the Russians straight toward the town of Pokrovsk, and UA manages to keep the corridor narrow – guess why. Pokrovsk is classic delaying combat, and UA has full control.
The problem this year will be passable terrain more than anything else; Ukraine will likely be able to maintain the initiative, is my guess, because RU has nothing more to draw on to increase the pressure.