11:21 – Johan No.1
So damn useless – now our media is pumping out that RU has already moved its aircraft beyond Storm Shadow and ATACMS range so there is no point in allowing it because it makes no difference.
This is TOTAL lie, there are still aircraft left at bases within long-range ATACMS and Storm Shadow range and it would make a difference.
BUT…
There are countless high-value targets within their max range to strike – hundreds – military bases, fuel depots, barracks, command posts, warehouses, ammunition depots, junctions, bridges and so on.
Shame 😡
11:29 – Johan No.1
Going through the swamp sites there are no videos or pictures of captured or destroyed UA materiel now after the TDF unit that took the full hit a few days ago.
If these pictures and videos existed they would have been posted.
11:33 – Johan No.1
Also don’t forget that ALL the reasons Scholz gave for not sending Taurus have been proven lies.
His strategy then became to stop giving reasons and just say that they will not send.
At least I think that in a democracy on a matter as significant as Taurus one should be able to justify their decision?
Then we must keep in mind that Scholz is the only Western leader who has now started talking about negotiations again, the others remain silent.
12:03 – MatsExtrude
👍 Kursk looks good so far and matches 101an, it is better than I dared to hope for (E38). It will really be interesting to see where it ends.
You might be right regarding the city of Kursk. Maybe they thought too much about what happened with the Russian column that approached Kyiv.
The Russians usually emphasize that Ukraine and even Europe are just puppet states to the USA and have no say. Regarding the Eel I’m beginning to suspect they are right.
(By the way, do eels have a backbone?
Maybe the worm or the snail is a better epithet for the chancellor?)
As long as the USA does not release long-range weapons, he will not either.
Then one might almost think that the USA is a puppet state under Putin considering how afraid they are to cross the red lines (and especially to establish their own red lines).
12:06 – Johan No.1
Reptile?
Right now the USA has really messed up with the long-range weapons – it’s downright embarrassing.
I guessed at the start that they went public with it to force Biden to make a decision but that’s a guess as good as any.
But my god how bad it looks right now – first the USA was going to give a positive answer and then they do a complete turnaround – dangerously poor strategic communication.
12:10 – MatsExtrude
Simply shameful. But the most shameful is probably that the USA uses it as an excuse for their cowardice.
12:17 – Johan No.1
Here is another map from the Russian side that Wartranslated posts but the source is Russian.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1834861277362999629
Looks a bit sweaty to the east 😐
12:27 – MatsExtrude
Yeah, didn’t look so good…
12:41 – Johan No.1
CV90 in Kursk 🤩
https://x.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1834900851866939618?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
12:41 – Johan No.1
Only second on that one 😎
10:10 – Johan No.1
I also ate surströmming now that I was home Surtrutn, found a can at ICA.
Didn’t get the family with me but it’s at least an interesting tradition.
Hard white bread, mashed potatoes, salt, chopped onion 😀
Managed not to spill any sauce 👍
11:04 – Johan No.1
Crazy footage of UA Humvee in combat
https://x.com/war_rum/status/1834574833704931565?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
If you remember yesterday, we discussed that since RU attacked eastward, it is probably largely abandoned further west in the area around Tetkino, and now it seems that UA simply went in and took over the area around the town – everything is still rumors for now but right now I’m grabbing onto everything.
(from Erik14 last night)
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l43w7yq2un2i
It is likely that within less than a week UA will have doubled the liberated area in Kursk (not doubled but including the entire Sejm area whatever that totals).
Unfortunately, the number trapped behind Sejm has gone down from +2500 to around a thousand, and it’s not unlikely that they manage to slip out.
https://x.com/friaukraina/status/1834701362707279935?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
RU has also started broader attacks in Kursk as we guessed.
https://x.com/gloooud/status/1834684790211023181?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I consider it statistically proven now that RU is critically short on tanks because when they conduct offensives, IFVs go up to 40-50 units but tanks remain in single digits. Their doctrine is to attack with tanks, and if they had reactive armor, they would also use tanks if they had them. Anyone with a differing opinion is a Russian influence agent.
The decline in artillery was due to redeployments that LW suggested as an alternative. Fire support has dropped in Pokrovsk from 12:1 to 2.5:1 and they have probably moved towards Kursk to deal with the Kursk offensive, and now it seems to be picking up again as batteries come within drone range.
However, this shows that RU does not have enough artillery and must choose focal points, so there is definitely a decline, just not as critically short as with tanks yet.
It’s now becoming more than rumors that UA has opened a new attack vector into Russia along road 101 – If you remember a few days ago I didn’t dare to latch onto that rumor, and Erik14 has also posted it, and most recently yesterday from the military-strategic genius Hasse from a source that seems well-informed if you go by his map which is better than the ones we have at the office (right Erik14?).
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-13-september-2024?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
It is still in Kursk but on the border with Bryansk and if they have this spacing between attack vectors, they will be able to have 4-5 more before reaching the Belarus border.
Above all, the road goes straight up to the city of Bryansk and if it turns out to be poorly defended up there, it’s a bit risky for Putin.
This coincides with three new brigades arriving in the area but not yet marked on maps, and it makes sense to continue opening new attack vectors for the Russians to have to deal with.
What they have sent in is highly unclear – reinforced reconnaissance or entire units.
And then we have the offensive strategic reserve of 13–17 brigades, you know those that weren’t equipped so Ukraine couldn’t go on the offensive this year according to Zelensky 😀
The big bang is saved.
Yesterday someone wrote that I was exaggerating a lot, we still don’t know if the above is true but I’m not really exaggerating much at all – the northern front looks absolutely terrible for Putin 😀
Ukraine will create more and more “Davydiv Bridges” inside Russian territory and so far Putin has not managed to break the first bulge – they are simply incapable of it.
Zelensky first said RU has 60,000 in the area which sounded a lot and was a misinterpretation and now that they have 40,000 and want to bring forward 60,000–70,000. Counting the number of units, I think the link below fits better and 33,000–35,000 seems likely, which Sirsky also says.
https://x.com/FriaUkraina/status/1834498177132626388
About 25% of RU units around the existing Kursk bulge are now involved in the attack and will be decimated in the coming week or two and become unusable.
At the new penetration point at road 101, RU must get brigades back on the highway again who will be exposed and knocked out, and then after a while UA will make a new penetration even further north – and this will continue with a couple more bulges that Putin must try to handle politically and 30,000 Russians at each bulge is only enough to slow down, not retake.
If this becomes a larger attack vector along road 101 that gains momentum, I at least think we can start talking in terms of a negative spiral for the Russians but we are not there yet.
Looking at the unit maps, RU anticipated this and has tried to air bomb the buildup.
Then RU must pull up 20 more brigades to meet it and they will come from conquered areas in Ukraine where gaps are already starting to appear in the defense.
In fact, some Twitter rumors claim that RU has already been heavily weakened around Pokrovsk so that offensive is lost but rumors at best so far.
MRF posted yesterday an article from CNN confirming what we previously discussed – that Ukraine in 2024 has learned to break through well-built defense systems and mine lines and that any front is fair game now.
I know as little as you do what the West is sending to UA right now. There are offensives everywhere and the West must send a lot so Ukraine doesn’t lose momentum.
What indications do you have on equipment actually being sent? I have found these two from Finland and Lithuania,
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1834312086173696362?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1834539856065601583?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And Canada has sent 1400 of their Roshel in total.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1834684570962477446?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
But the USA has stopped delivering ATACMS according to rumors and it has previously been rumored that the USA stopped deliveries as punishment for Kursk but that is also just a rumor at best.
https://x.com/StateOfUkraine/status/1834709451607355810
And while all the smaller countries in Europe are sending everything they can right now, Scholz wants peace and then he comes out saying they absolutely will not send Taurus – hard to find anything positive in his statements at all but it’s somewhat balanced by Germany having a big weapons package underway but that is also business.
I suspect that new production in the EU is starting to ramp up and that UA towards the turn of the year will be able to start re-equipping one brigade at a time with the latest IFVs and heavily modified tanks coming off production lines across the EU.
What then happens is that other equipment in that brigade is freed up for other units and already today the TDF is partly mechanized.
However, UA would probably benefit from more surplus equipment as well – there are a few thousand old M60 tanks for example. Those 600 Bradleys that the USA chooses to scrap, can’t they send those?
Ukraine’s own production is also at a high level now – own artillery and ATGMs for example in large quantities not to mention drone weapons and missiles.
They certainly still have some T64s to upgrade as well.
Not to mention all the workshops that refurbish captured vehicles and all that are not completely destroyed so total write-offs remain low.
Then I hope that Ukraine has soon succeeded in building its own ATACMS cluster munitions. They know exactly how effective they are and must have experimented with such a warhead in some of their own missiles by now.
When they can cluster themselves 1500km deep, it’s game over for the Russian air force, so it is likely a prioritized operation and at an airbase near us in the near future – one of those Easter eggs we haven’t seen yet.
On August 20, Battalion Rusich was crushed in Kursk
https://x.com/splendid_pete/status/1825593468426518628?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Ukraine is also putting great effort into trying to eradicate SOF Zenezh because they have some initiation ritual to bring prisoners home across the border whom they kill with a knife, and then you become a full member.
At Belgorod, it is all heavy UA elite units with a strong bite and significantly more than what is needed for defense, that is quite clear. Previously, they were already 3:1 against RU after RU losses, so they should be at least that or an even more favorable ratio.
I think it is starting to look really bad for the Russians along the northern front actually, and the question is when they will seriously have to prioritize here – probably not many months away.
– The first thing they will abandon is the southern front, we have probably gone through that before.
– They will also try to leave the darkest Donbass to DPR and LPR if it gets tight.
– They cannot abandon northern Luhansk because then the amount of border with UA doubles, which they must defend, and we have figured out that they are completely incapable of that.
– Maybe they will try to defend the land bridge to Crimea and then an NS line through Melitopol to free up units?
What happened recently if UA increases the liberated area in Kursk, then Putin should almost panic and demand redeployments again?
What would happen if UA goes in broadly in Bryansk and crushes Russian units around Belgorod?
Putin is simply running out of units to plug the holes with and to hold all conquered territory – “quantity is a quality in itself” went so-so 😀
The thousand-dollar question is then how the discussion is going in the West right now because they see this too, are they accelerating or braking deliveries?
If you were to post some PANICINT from the Russians, things are going pretty badly in Kursk right now, they went from triumphant to silent to resigned and soon the condemnations and anger will come and finally pleas to keep Moscow 🤣
Then you see just like me how Ukraine reaches all the supply routes to the RU attack vector Pokrovsk and now that RU has moved artillery and the reserves with capability left and the attack has stalled, it is a matter of starting to mass that front with drones and carry out local counterattacks until they are weak enough for a serious hit.
A large-scale “motti” will never happen but you can force 20 brigades onto the highway and get another (we have had many!) Kuwait highway 2.0 which is probably a likely end in this area.
According to earlier, the poor bearing capacity of the ground is a good timing.
At the same time, the USA goes out in the media and talks about that they MAY ALLOW France and UA to allow Ukraine to shoot with their weapons into Russian territory, maybe.
(with what right can the USA decide over France and UK should all ask themselves).
Then Finland and Sweden go out and say that Ukraine can use all their weapons on Russian territory however they want – does it feel like the USA comes out on top in this?
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l43yw6airl2o
All smaller countries in Europe are now trying to send everything they can to Ukraine to replenish after the losses they have taken. Unclear where UK, Germany, and France are sending right now but at least Germany has announced a large package. According to David D, the USA is still holding on to those Bradleys that were promised more than half a year ago and rumors at best that the USA has stopped sending as punishment for Kursk.
What is needed now is actually that the UK and France come out and ask Ukraine to use Storm Shadow against targets in Russia, that Sweden sends Gripen and that all countries that promised F-16 send them now – what is the USA going to do practically about that?
If they get the whole EU against them, they will back down, their own arms industry will make sure of that quite quickly.
Think about this –
We are 2.5 years into the war, Ukraine should get 50 billion EUR/year from interest on frozen Russian funds, they should get 60 billion EUR from the EU and surely lots of cash from the USA?
They are not allowed to buy surplus equipment from different countries, the Taurus manufacturer is begging on their bare knees for contracts but gets none, Storm Shadow I don’t know but I think it is produced, no one places orders for Patriot.
And Ukraine has announced that their domestic arms industry is 20 billion EUR/year short.
Why are contracts not placed if the funds exist, the purpose of these 50 billion EUR from frozen funds and the same amount from the EU, and G7, was to place contracts with arms manufacturers.
The West is no longer sleeping through this but after decisions are made, it is reasonably slowed down at all possible levels and this is something that needs to be highlighted more.
https://x.com/colbybadhwar/status/1834690714657312788?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Regarding Putin’s nuclear weapons, my opinion is the following – first of all, I think they are in a lousy condition but they can surely launch a tactical nuclear weapon, but it must be fired at an area without an air defense umbrella. If Putin gives the order, the missile does not launch immediately – there is a whole chain of physical people who must obey the order. Will all these levels be willing to do that?
I don’t think so and I believe that would be the signal to get rid of Putin.
Then the USA probably has eagle eyes on all places with tactical and strategic nuclear weapons and consider now that Ukrainian drones can reach all these launch sites so it is not entirely unlikely that the USA has a fast line to a UA drone unit with 24-hour shifts whose only task is to take out a launch platform for tactical or strategic nuclear weapons if they are completed. The nuclear troops have zero experience of the war so far and will make all the mistakes of not protecting themselves.
Putin’s nuclear threat is therefore not credible and if they make the decision, they will stand there long-faced with a blown-up launch site.
This is easier than the USA having to retaliate after a hit in Ukraine after all the promises they have made so it is highly likely that this is how it looks.
Do like Erik14 and MXT and keep an eye on Kursk in the coming weeks because big events are in the making. Erik14 posted a lot of useful information in yesterday’s thread which is mandatory reading.
Then we don’t forget the amphibious fighting that is ongoing but has not yet increased to the level we hope.
And that UA can break through any mine lines and fortifications in 2024.
-Positive-Positive thus and exciting weeks are ahead, yes I have been jumping up and down for a few days now but big things are happening 😀
I wasn’t in the thread on these dates but was writing to “someone” that RU had advanced much further than the maps showed in Kursk and that they had SOF in Kursk so it was not impossible that they would go for the city which they then did not.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l422sv5whw2k
Apparently a decision was made not to go towards the city with the risk of exposing their flanks. In hindsight, I think Ukraine overestimated RU’s capability and that Kursk went better than they dared to hope actually.