2024-09-15 -

11:15 – Johan No.1

The old man reports that he is pushing forward with his red bike right behind the Sejm Russians 👍
Before he was sent to Kursk, there was a side mission where he carried a baba-yaga drone on his back for several tens of miles – you can probably figure out where that was 😀

11:51 – Johan No.1

It seems like our thought the other day that the SU30 was shot down when it tried to sabotage violent amphibious combat was correct. It also seems that our assumption that the amphibious combat is underway but large-scale landings have not yet occurred is correct, so the Dnepr front is probably burning and bleeding.
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1834929941911077056?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

This is possibly what it looks like behind the Sejm and according to “Fram i Natten” this morning, a battalion of the 200th Arctic brigade got beaten and UA advanced 4km and reached mortar positions, which indicates a breakthrough.
UA is trying to reach the two towns with bridges to encircle those remaining in the western pocket and is trying to strike the 155th in the back as best as they can.
They have rushed in new units in the pocket over the last two days – at least a couple of battalions are rumored.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1835225302684897466?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

It’s great that the thread has started up with the Sejm counteroffensive now because big things are happening – Ukraine has almost doubled the conquered area up in Kursk and there will be some prisoners even though I suspect most will slip out. In this war, the Russians have been very good at avoiding being encircled, so the likelihood is low even though things look terrible for the Russians.

Right now, they are attacking the Sejm Russians from three directions and RU has the river at their back. They probably have pontoon bridges on standby and then hope to keep a corridor open at Korenovo. My guess is that there were +2500 inside the encirclement, VDV crossed on pontoon bridges and then they have been fighting for a week so probably +1000 remain with a chance of being captured and they will try to slip away.
The 155th will die in its entirety.

Yesterday Erik14 posted a puzzle piece and it is clear that the game is not for UA to win as quickly as possible – tin foil hat off on that reasoning then

Zelensky is supposed to meet Biden now in September as I understand it to present his peace plan and we sincerely hope Biden goes for everything without senior nonsense.
You have, just like me, noticed that Ukraine no longer does as the USA says and they are dictating the terms for the USA right now. Then they also embarrassed the USA when Zelensky said they kept the offensive secret from the USA so it wouldn’t leak to Putin.

And guess how it looks at headquarters when UA no longer talks to all senior NATO commanders but makes their own plans in secret which they follow – trust crisis maybe?

This coincides with rumors that the USA has stopped delivering ATACMS and we know that the USA does not approve of operations with their, or EU, missiles deep inside Russia.
The USA came up with a lying reason for not delivering ATACMS which we exposed the other day – pure lie that all aircraft are beyond 300km and there are hundreds of high-value targets within range of these weapons.
And this link also says so.
https://x.com/arturrehi/status/1832862311318466719?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1834963755790106848?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

A couple of statements from Zelensky show great irritation and he almost calls the USA “cowards”.
This is a bit make or break for the USA, do they support Ukraine in action as they say they do in words or do they see Ukraine as ungrateful Russian descendants who should be happy with what they get?

In this thread we shall support Ukraine and when Zelensky himself as a cautious statesman speaks out and calls Biden a coward afraid of a fight, the criticism of Biden critics in the thread should not be too harsh I think. Otherwise, one might mistakenly be suspected of supporting Biden and the Democrats more than Ukraine.

The cowardly street dog Biden as someone in the thread called him some months ago or whenever it was.

The strategic communication right now is CATASTROPHIC from the USA and Kier Starmer has shown no integrity at all. Macron is unfortunately busy with his domestic political chaos unleashed by Putin as revenge because he is completely silent.
We will see next week where this ends but for the West to start internal quarrels during a Ukrainian MECHANIZED offensive is very bad – it takes half the edge off the Ukrainian offensive’s purpose to put pressure on Putin.

Consider that the USA is telling the whole world that they decide what the UK and France can do and Finland and Sweden feel compelled to say – we will not be silenced by the USA.

The USA is really fighting to restore predictability to Putin here and Scholz is doing the same with all his statements.
An offensive which, by the way, leaders in the West have chosen not to comment on with a single positive or supportive word.
The West risks strengthening Putin here, don’t they see that?

Scholz even goes out and first says that Ukraine kept the offensive secret from him (I knew nothing, am absolutely not involved), then that he thinks it’s time for peace completely uncalled for and finally now that there will be no Taurus.
The only thing missing is that he starts whispering about a ceasefire here.

This instead of praising Ukraine’s offensive and stating that Germany stands with Ukraine all the way to the goal.
Do you see the problem?

I think Zelensky’s earlier statement that he kept the offensive secret from the USA because otherwise they would have leaked to Putin says it all really – Ukraine does not trust the USA and Germany.
https://x.com/revishvilig/status/1825637435708957068?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

On the subject of strategic offensive reserve,
It seems UA’s new Ranger Corps is ready for violent Russian delousing. They are probably battalion-sized Kraken-style units and a very capable force consisting of 4 regiments so a brigade total or more?

6 brigades are probably still being formed and we can guess their condition. David D mentions Bandvagn 206 and one can rightly ask who has received them.
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1835182242856898561?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

In addition, there are 6 brigades in strategic reserve and 4 battalion groups. Then there are a couple of brigades that it is unclear whether they still exist or not.
This is in addition to the redundancy that exists at the fronts and at Kursk only units that were at the fronts were used, several of which had been resting since autumn 2023 and newly equipped.

The same at Pokrovsk, new units arrived that had been in the rear and newly equipped.

I have a little world-leading theory that when the RU offensive starts to go to zero at various fronts, UA can release several brigades from these which then become offensive reserve.
A more static defense requires far fewer units on site.

The reason I am positive—positive right now—is because Ukraine is performing miracles, and because they are not tearfully panicking and saying that the ammunition is finished.
The 2023 offensive was made possible with 300,000 shells from South Korea, and this year they have received deliveries of even more, much more.
And then they have the drone weapon on top of that, which is a well-equipped tiger.
And they manufacture BTR-4, Bohdana wheeled howitzers, and now 155mm ammunition in large quantities.

But the West’s actions so far are downright shameful, especially the USA, and if things start to go badly for Ukraine, that will become the focus again, which is not good for my blood pressure.

The strategic communication this week regarding long-range weapons against Russia is an ABSOLUTE disaster. The USA just made it clear to Putin that they will continue to prevent all Western countries and themselves from striking targets in Russia with their weapons.

Then Putin can relax again, and it became predictable once more.

It’s starting to look good on the fronts –
-At the Dnieper, UA has the initiative due to the amphibious battle, RU really cannot counter this highly mobile fight between Enerhodar – Crimea and is a sitting target.
-At the other fronts up towards northern Luhansk, it looks like RU has thinned out quite a bit and UA has control of the situation and can at least go on the defensive.
-Up in northern Luhansk, RU is starting to look dangerously weak, and at Belgorod it looks like Ukraine has at least a 3:1 numerical advantage.
–

Now that Ukraine has redundancy at the fronts, they can either move units for offensive operations elsewhere or start carrying out local offensives in their operational areas.
We can assume it will get livelier going forward – this looks very good, as I said.

Then you see just like I do that the RU counteroffensive in Kursk has failed.
We saw that they brought forward +10 brigades we knew about sometime in August from occupied areas, and those were the offensive reserves with remaining capability.
They have just under 30 brigades in Kursk, many of which have also been moved from the Kharkiv front and northern Luhansk.
So it is time for a larger Russian counteroffensive, and right now 25% of these units are being wiped out and the UA offensive continues.

I’ll bet a West African meat stew that when this dies down, UA will still be advancing and have opened another attack vector, and RU will have to bring up 30-40 new brigades from occupied areas just to slow it down.

As for strategic reserves, RU

has none – otherwise they would already have thrown themselves over the Kursk bulge in a show of force, so they do not exist.
By the way, at the new border crossing at Medvezhe, it was customs officers and FSB trying to hold back.
Right now Ukraine has full control over the Kursk offensive and will take the opportunity with something new once they have the Russian counteroffensive under control.

We might have to give it another month, but I think we can start talking in terms of a severely deteriorated security situation for Putin – Russia is invaded and he cannot manage to sort out the situation.

If this is combined with citizens in Belarus rising up and some republics declaring their statutory freedom according to international law as colonized indigenous peoples, it suddenly becomes pitch black.

This autumn we should keep an eye on who from the West proposes ceasefires – those who do are not with us but against us.

If I may guess, Ukraine has a plan to fight during the mud season as well; I don’t think David D is completely off.
Ukraine has now regained the initiative and will not give it up voluntarily. Their domestic weapons production is at such a level that they can continue.

That is why Zelensky has dared to break away from the USA, and if even the EU cannot be persuaded by a strong leader to follow international law and do what is right, there is no hope, but it is nice that Scandinavia is leading here.
Finland and Sweden have taken a strong stand against the USA, and Denmark has done so as well.

Ukraine, through its invasion of Russia, has crashed the whole planned party for Putin, China, and the USA who had agreed on everything. That is what is so fun.

Now predictability is gone and everything is suddenly high risk.

We have to wait until after the war to know how the turns went, but it is quite clear that Zelensky and Sirsky have full integrity and want what is best for Ukraine.

Now, in times of low-affect response and Chamberlain moments – what has proven to work best in Ukraine?
You all know the answer because when Ukraine’s men, women, and all other identities (there are many women in fighting units and at least Ashton Carillo) from different religions (there are Christians, Hindus, J…s, Mus…s) have thundered into the Russians like a ton of bricks, the Russians fold immediately.
This kind of mentality that does not yield flat to low-affect response seems to exist mostly everywhere except in Western Europe, so for our future defense forces it feels quite sensible to go back to a defense that trains its soldiers to be able to face such an enemy; they existed yesterday, they exist today, and they will exist tomorrow.
This is a mindset where one is completely indifferent to human lives and considers sexual sadistic torture fully justified, and that is also why I..el has such a hard line as they do. The day they try to meet resistance with low-affect response is the day I..el ceases to exist.

The Russian bastards also had a lot of other sneaky plans in a potential war if you are to believe fiction – they had used fake police at checkpoints on roads leading to airbases and military bases and tried to take out as many as they could.
Before the war started, they had gone around to all pilots and officers, probably also politicians, and tried to shoot as many as they could.
The sabotage had been at an astronomical level and the peace demonstrations likewise, where Sweden was urged to stay calm and not mobilize so as not to provoke the Soviet Union.
Then traitors among (some) politicians and key personnel had delayed decisions and preparations as much as possible, hoping that all combined would mean we were not prepared for the fight.
Then Christmas Day or Midsummer Day would be good days for the attack.
They have done all this in Ukraine, so it’s not entirely unlikely that the fiction was accurate.

Here you have all of Putin’s red lines Zelensky is jumping on
https://x.com/LevHavryliv/status/1834973668184617257

By the way, UA has another “motti” underway, which is probably where the total of 8,000 comes from – if they can pass Korenovo east of the town and go north towards E38, it will be RU units that will have a hard time. Especially if that is paired with a new breakthrough of the border at E38, which MXT is impatiently waiting for. That would involve 4-5 more brigades.
As I said, it looks positive—positive—and it’s fun that the thread is now in the game because it’s always a bit dull to be the only one thinking it looks exciting. Erik14 has long posted about this, so a good idea is to read what he posts.

12:34 – MatsExtrude

👍 A bit worrying that the Russians managed to push forward and retake quite a large area south of Korenevo / Snagost. Hopefully they baked in better prepared lines. If they can then fall on them from the west side (Veseloye/Medveze), it should probably work out.

It’s a pity that there are few roads in the right direction (I wish the railway track that runs there had been a road instead). But if you can reach little Gluskovo and/or Glushkovo, it will probably be easier to bring forward mechanized forces.

Yes, Biden and everyone else who caves in to Putin’s threats certainly deserve criticism (but I am still glad that Biden is in charge in the USA and not Trump). I still hope there can be a change when the election is over (unless Trump wins, of course).

We might have to wait a bit for the E38 until they have cleared south of Sejm, but if they push down and back the Russians and then can gain control over Korenevo, it will probably be time. Unless they dare to try it as a diversionary maneuver, of course.

Erik14’s, FIN’s and others’ posts are invaluable for getting a picture of the situation!

17:22 – Johan No.1

Yes, it has been rumored and I grab onto everything now and so far everything has turned out to be true.
However, we should have heard more if it was not just reconnaissance or SOF groups, so presumably smaller numbers.
But it is also done for a purpose.

RU has air-bombed the terrain behind Khomutovka inside Ukraine, so probably troop concentrations.

It is along road 101. We have not heard anything about E038 yet.
However, the defense at Medvehze was customs officers and FSB, so there is a good chance it is poorly defended.