13:44
Scholz is going to call Putin.
The promise that only Ukraine would have contact is broken
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1841066712415838345?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
15:46
No, Ukraine will never surrender to Ruski Mir but at some point giving up part of currently occupied land will seem attractive.
The ranger units were very far forward and inside the city of Kursk it was said, but then that army that had come close to Kursk withdrew and consolidated. According to something we read, they were worried about overstretching and being cut off.
The first two weeks were all about fire overall and fire control on a large scale, and in the first week, around 50% of the reinforcements were knocked out on the highway. The second week quite a bit.
If I were to guess, they have withdrawn as RU units have increased significantly, because then the risk of being overrun becomes greater.
Further into the depths or out snooping along the rest of the border – who knows 😀
Your last sentence – either RU withdraws from UA on their own accord, but otherwise it is presumably negotiations?
If the West does not use Kursk as leverage, it has no value was my point, sort of.
16:08
It’s important to interpret strictly – yes, they probably had materiel for three brigades out of 14 👍
BUT – everything will be decided in negotiations and if Putin can talk down the West on Kursk, it has no value, which we do not know yet.
Senhor, now Pearson’s book has gone through these steps and we discussed it before October 7 while Sullivan said peace in our time, right?
He was simply completely wrong.
They are waiting to attack over the northern front but something is holding them back 😐
16:13
So – escalation in MENA was highly expected and Sullivan should have understood that.
To shout peace in our time two weeks before October 7 was terrible timing
19:00
We’re testing giving our soldiers LSD to see what happens 😳
Pretty funny actually
https://x.com/i_w_m/status/1840788559235604832?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
19:04
Port blockade possibly in the entire USA
Who do you think is behind it?
https://x.com/joshuasteinman/status/1840937618575671661?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
19:05
Is it worth avoiding escalation?
20:33
Military service was simply different in the 60s.
20:41
Otherwise calm until the election in the USA, it wasn’t then 😀
In…fire there has been a timeline to adhere to since the pagers were blown up, and they were probably blown up because someone caught on to them, but that doesn’t make it easier for D that the whole MENA lit up and that there is a general strike for dockworkers in the USA.
07:02
Iran’s crown prince calls for revolution
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1841258526078824656?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
07:31
Chinese mercenaries killed in Ukraine
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1841222840801992895?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
07:34
Iran is probably threatening nuclear weapons not very subtly?
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1841208814625845391?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
08:20
Artillery ratio has gone from 8:1 to 3:1 ✊💥
https://x.com/euromaidanpress/status/1841115946116694366?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
10:28
According to Deepstate, Vuhledar is now lost and they are probably dragging it out by 3 days, we say?
Thanks to “someone” that the FAB bombers were not taken out 😡
A defensive battle to be reckoned with from the 72nd, that hole became the last battle for many Russian brigades.
10:31
Or as Scholz says with a poorly hidden smile – “Vuhledar ist verloren” when he calls Putin.
13:38
There was a bit of an upset atmosphere yesterday when Kursk came up in connection with my account being hacked.
Maybe I should clarify that Kursk only has value if the West assigns it value in negotiations since it is a politically motivated offensive – yes, the whole narrative of Putin and China should fall apart but if the West doesn’t want to upset Putin so that he starts a nuclear war, maybe they choose to overlook it?
Perhaps you have noticed, just like I have, that the wave of jubilation did not occur in the West?
These negotiations, if they are happening at all, which we do not yet know, are the West putting pressure on Ukraine and Russia and then trying to dangle some carrots.
Since it will be harder to put pressure on Russia, there is a risk that they do what is easier – ask Ukraine to be the adult in the room and then try to compensate for that.
Rammstein on October 12 feels somewhat decisive because then we will have the entire coalition for UA support in place. Until now, it was only the USA, but now there are about 40 countries with opinions?
Either we will see Storm Shadow on Russian targets the week after or we will hear more about peace negotiations – one of those is probably what will happen?
Scholz’s position is already clear, for example – no Taurus missiles and he wants to see negotiations, so we don’t need to guess there.
Kier Starmer seems to be struggling right now actually – I don’t know if it can be attributed to RU or himself/Labour. The thing about a billionaire paying for his wardrobe seemed to be true as far as I understand, but someone leaked that?
I believe this is legit, the Labour whip has resigned and written a letter as they always do, and the criticism is scathing. To have taken office as Labour whip after Labour’s desert march and then resign a few months later is interesting.
https://x.com/JamesMelville/status/1840072397459755136
Macron has been silent since Putin hit him with demonstrations and political chaos as punishment for throwing in a rehearsed script. The difference between January 2024 and today could not be greater. His latest statements at the UN are sweeping, and back in January it was free use of French weapons and possible troops in Ukraine.
We have figured out that Harris/Biden must adapt to Trump at least until the election, so Putin de facto controls the USA here and the meeting at Rammstein is in less than two weeks.
Then I was sitting and thinking about I..el’s war in MENA – very few in the West criticize Russia, Iran, or the terrorist organizations for being responsible for this but everyone wants I..el to be restrained. We have a lot of information that RU and China were 7 October enablers and Hezbollah is Iran’s creation, which has hijacked an entire country and no one cares about the citizens in Lebanon😲
https://x.com/kvistp/status/1840124073612828935?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I..el has done one thing here – they are going against everyone right now and they have just promised the Iranian people that they will be freed from political I..slam – stirring the pot is an understatement.
The West had basically financed H..as and Iran Hez..bollah and Lebanon wants to get rid of Hez…bollah, and the citizens of Iran want to get rid of political Isl..am.
It seems Putin had a night meeting in Moscow regarding I..el’s defensive fight into Lebanon?
https://x.com/yasminalombaert/status/1840862666799067417?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Do you know what I..el has just created – they have created a “window of opportunity” where Putin’s global expansion is collapsing and he is on the way to losing one of three allies – Iran.
Now is probably an opportunistic time to let Storm Shadow rain down on targets in Russia and resource those 14 brigades or what. 10 brigades and 300,000 155mm shells enabled the offensive in 2023 and this year Ukraine has learned to break through fortification lines with mines and refined mobile combat that completely confuses the Russians.
We continue our reasoning about NATO and Article 5 – it is indisputable that Russia carries out active sabotage in the EU at regular intervals but it has no consequences at all.
Someone mentioned yesterday that Article 5 was tested on 9/11 but you probably understand what I mean when I say it has not been tested?
You remember how all the hak….crosses on J…a properties in France were two Moldovans who had been paid by the FSB.
RU flies aggressively inside the USA’s air defense zone
https://x.com/maxvillman/status/1840792083877011717?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And how the Quran burnings disappeared from the media the second we joined NATO 😲
The Russian subversive activity is a poison but it also has no real consequences.
RU has also been caught interfering in elections and the entire US administration presumably knows what Trump is, one would assume?
And here they are caught financing several elections in the EU
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l5h2wtccx72j
If we put on Putin’s very small hat (smaller than XS) for a second – challenging NATO is high on his list, are the signals he gets that it will be met with overwhelming force from NATO if he steals a few hectares in Estonia?
Russia has Turkey and Hungary on its side, they hold the chairmanship gavel in the UN (whatever that was) and Hungary holds the chairmanship gavel in the EU and they have managed to get the USA almost completely passive.
RU probably doesn’t want to stir the pot right before the US election and be seen as a major aggressor but if I were the Baltics and Finland I would be awake with a cup of coffee from the night of November 7.
And if I were the rest of Europe I would already have a division in the Baltics on November 6 from these countries’ national defense but I am not.
I hope no one missed that Sullivan did not pick up that RU was preparing for an escalation in MENA a year ago. As we said, we discussed that a lot in the thread before October 7 regarding Putin’s global escalation ladder but Sullivan believed in peace in our time. Then he was totally wrong and doesn’t want to admit it – does it feel like he had full control?
And Finland has now made several statements where they are clear that attempts to steal land will be met with overwhelming force – do as Finland does is my best guess since the start of the war.
Apparently, the Houthis have attacked a total of 103 ships in the Red Sea without real consequences except for an attack from the US coalition. Has the media blown this up as a big problem?
After all, it makes everything more expensive in the West and disrupts the global maritime transport system.
You almost start to suspect that it is embarrassing for the West so the media avoids highlighting it.
Iranian ships send targeting data to the Houthis who fire Iranian and Russian anti-ship missiles at all Western ships they can as well as the Western coalition’s warships.
Isn’t this already a WAR from Iran and Russia against the WEST?
By the way, this is what it looked like at the beginning of the war for those of you who say the West has supported enough – they threw Molotov cocktails at tanks Finland style 😐
https://x.com/lukedcoffey/status/1840881795338027396?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Have you, like me, noticed that RU has gone from golf carts and motorcycles paired with some high knees across the fields to a mechanized battalion of 50 vehicles strong?
It is a new operational pattern and occurs on all front sections.
50 units of armored vehicles including some tanks make up a mech battalion, so they now seem to be fighting at battalion strength (again). They are losing about one mech battalion per day right now, and if I may guess, I think that is what a Russian regiment manages to field in terms of mechanized forces nowadays – so one regiment per day is lost.
When we had the infamous BTG at the start of the war, they were completely hopeless – I cannot say whether they fight more effectively now or not?
This warfare is draining the Russian bastards and has an end date, which is good.
These are qualified units and not Wagner prisoners or Storm Z prisoners.
The attack the day before yesterday on two airfields and an ammunition depot was welcome because they only paused for the meeting in the USA.
Reports of 60 Kinzal missiles at one of the airfields and there is reason to guess that UA is trying to mitigate the effect of the Russian missile rain this autumn by knocking out as many missiles as possible before RU starts up.
RU’s countermeasure should be to start the missile rain earlier.
Anyway, very nicely done by Ukraine, they have targeted NK, Iranian, and RU missile depots in rounds and seem to have had some success.
Missiles from Iran and NK have been delivered in the hundreds and they can probably build +100 (Erik14 is tracking) of their own missiles per month, so knocking out 60 in one attack makes a difference and there have been 4-5 attacks in total.
https://x.com/tendar/status/1840364913161609578?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/vyshnyaostap/status/1840172531958858092?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/the_lookout_n/status/1839729892768002135?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1840329782351061381?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1840346352913391624?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Kursk worries me – not the periphery of the bulge to the East and South because Ukraine has gone on the defense there but the area behind Sejm.
This is a prioritized area for Ukraine to capture in order to be able to go on effective defense and now RU has also opened an offensive in the rear aiming to cut the supply line to Sudza.
Yes, we guessed right that Ukraine has now learned to break through formidable defensive lines and minefields. They worked for weeks and broke through a formidable defense line which now makes them world-leading even in that aspect. We have discussed this before.
https://x.com/waffentraeger/status/1840515158344437963?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
August 6th seems to have been quite thin on units anyway, I can’t quite decipher below how many were present. We know that SOF Zenesh and the Kadyrovites were pulled out but apparently there was a VDV regiment left in the area?
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1840056547574976589.html
https://x.com/sirdo_/status/1840726615795314993?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Ukraine thus carried out a VERY competent offensive that is talked about far too little despite all information being out – the praise choirs are completely silent.
They also launched a counteroffensive against the counteroffensive within 24 hours which was extremely skillful.
Now 4-6 RU brigades plus some small units have been fighting for over two weeks behind Sejm and they are fallen on the flank.
Yes, they have increased with another VDV regiment inside Sejm – 56th AAD
Ukraine should have cleared the area behind Sejm by now because they are wide open for RU to push in heavily with reinforcements and collapse the entire Kursk bulge.
Simply put, you don’t want Russian bastards in your rear 😐
The same at Vuhledar – you don’t want to lose the entire anchor that has been held since the start of the war and they are well on their way to losing it now.
Or up at Northern Luhansk where the area is being cut in two and then RU can sneak in along the river Oskil and fall the defense in the rear – that bulge is what they want to hit.
Meanwhile, UA still has a large offensive reserve up at Kharkiv that could be released.
They are now reclaiming the area and it is probably a fairly obvious part of the offensive this autumn to retake that area.
And UA has strategic reserves that I sincerely hope are equipped now, otherwise the West has made a cardinal mistake in this war.
So what is going on right now?
I don’t really know because they certainly don’t lack units and the counter-battery fire on the artillery you can see how it goes together with the logistics.
It is also very lively on FIRMS along the northern front up to the Russian border where RU fortifications lie.
One theory could be that they don’t have enough ammunition and vehicles for all and have to pool resources to prioritized areas where they shall attack and that maintenance is the limiting factor?
And if that’s true, the West has let another opportunity slip from Ukraine’s hands AGAIN 😭
Yes, now we should have had Storm Shadow on those 100 targets already and ATACMS over the airbases so FAB disappeared, and that was a critical part of the plan which we don’t seem to see soon as further discussions are to be held in Ramstein – that’s two weeks lost for active units in Kursk which is a very long time when FAB is raining down on them day and night.
Think like this – over two weeks ALL RU larger ammunition depots and fuel depots are knocked out. They tungsten-rain the airfields and decimate the air force heavily.
FAB disappears immediately and after a month there is an acute shortage of fuel and ammunition.
But now it didn’t happen and Ukraine has to wait to win the war a little longer.
But that can’t be the whole explanation because UA has more gas and could move units from Kharkiv to Kursk for example.
Or open a new attack vector straight into Bryansk with 3-5 brigades that are available.
At least Russian milbloggers expect a violent UA offensive in October and now we are there but since I am a worried soul I wonder if the USA is making counter-demands again now that they got the chance?
It is not unreasonable that the USA is very pissed off about Kursk and that they were not told anything, just as I..el is keeping quiet.
Because right now I can’t put the pieces together at all here about what is going on and as with everything else, you should strike while the iron is hot?
What do you see?
I have previously discussed that Ukraine’s drone takeover may be temporary and that China will supply Russia with the drones they need going forward during 2025.
China has a production capacity that is probably light years ahead of the West and I think stuff like this is important, a drone show with 8000 drones controlled from one computer.
https://x.com/Felix_Nuno/status/1840133284799427013
If Russia manages to take over the drones, it will become difficult for Ukraine to handle and time is not on Ukraine’s side.
UA has probably maxed out its drone production, but RU has not yet received the Chinese drones, and the West will not send millions of drones to Ukraine because we do not build millions of drones.
Everything can therefore only get better for Russia over time.
The M1117 has at least arrived at a mechanized brigade that is now being equipped – they are roughly a glorified version of the M113.
The USA seems to have 1800 of them and most recently promised 150 and earlier 250, but they were in poor condition and needed servicing before transport.
https://x.com/militarylandnet/status/1840447442073870365?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Now it should be decommissioned and just like with the M113, there are 6-8 times more than what has been sent and the rest are in storage gathering dust or are to be scrapped.
Ukraine has circulated a list of what they wanted and most recently Zelensky stated that 14 brigades could not be equipped because promised materiel had not arrived.
I don’t understand why materiel that is going to be phased out anyway cannot be sent in large numbers – why can’t they send 10,000 armored vehicles so Ukraine has fully equipped brigades?
Everything is in storage, much is surplus materiel and other things are on their way to being scrapped.
The Houthis have sunk civilian oil ships in the Red Sea without consequences, and without the media really reporting on it, but when they launched a missile towards I..el the response came quite promptly.
They will probably go back to sinking ships in the Red Sea since it is risk-free.
https://x.com/lucasfoxnews/status/1840415548217176161?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
If you look at Oskil, RU has managed to widen the wedge down towards the watercourse and stands 3 km from it.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GYwOTr-XoAAMOHr.jpg
This means that defense in the communities at Oskil can probably begin to be identified and FAB is being dropped on the two towns RU is trying to capture.
If they reach the river, they have succeeded in splitting northern Luhansk in two and can probably clear the terrain northwards relatively easily as well as advance southwards along Oskil and start rolling up all of northern Luhansk with the river on the flank.
I have previously called the area “messy” to defend for Ukraine in my world-leading analysis and I stand by that.
Taking the terrain up to Oskil is high on RU’s priority list because then they have another easily defended area AND have captured the entire Luhansk Oblast – which is politically high-value for Putin.
It is very clear to me that UA has priority areas, and then areas that have ammunition shortages.
Northern Luhansk seems to be deprioritized right now.
It is my opinion that the West has once again managed to disrupt Ukraine’s momentum they created when they again did the impossible and went on the offensive that all of us in the thread suspected would come.
Exactly why we will probably have to wait a while until Zelensky tells us, but it is not unreasonable that Kursk was received rather coolly by the West – risk of escalation?
Kursk was supposed to be followed by a MASSIVE strategic bombing campaign which has not happened for almost two months because the West is holding back their weapons, but Ukraine has done the best they could here with strikes against ammunition depots and air bases.
Kursk would probably have been accompanied by an attack vector into Bryansk Oblast and whether that was stopped or not by the West we do not know – but looking at how things look on the ground, that attack has not started, right?
And Ukraine has the units up in the area for that – that is indisputable.
But RU is continuously receiving reinforcements so it is all a matter of time.
Ukraine has had to deprioritize other areas in order to carry out this offensive which is what we are seeing now – they do not have enough ammunition and materiel at Vuhledar, northern Luhansk, and Pokrovsk, but at Pokrovsk it is probably starting to clear up now?
If the West does not let Ukraine capitalize on the opportunities they have created, the initiative will slowly slip back to the Russian bastards again whether that is the West’s intention or not and those are the consequences that matter here. The road to hell is paved with good intentions, as they say?
What you are currently seeing from the most expensive ticket in the stands is not entirely unreasonable to think this is the third time the West has pulled the rug out from under Ukraine in this war if it does not very soon become permitted to rain missiles and Ukraine is showered with materiel so their strategic reserve can move forward.
And IF that is paired with negotiations this autumn, it is an outrage that will be hard for me to accept – but we are not there yet.
They have held back F-16s, we know that from, for example, Denmark, and Zelensky has several times stated that 14 brigades lack materiel because the West has not delivered what was promised. If we look at Sweden, it took until now to put PBV-302 on transport – 2.5 years 😲
We will see, yes I tend to be early out so we will see, but how many times can the country Ukraine accelerate, hope they get wholehearted support from the West only to immediately see themselves opposed so it doesn’t go too well?
Now there is another restructuring in the government so things have been moving quite a bit since last autumn.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1841003569614361057?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Sometimes it’s just funny – Iran had an anti-I..el unit in Iran that was supposed to root out subversive elements but the entire unit worked for Mossad 🤣
https://x.com/drelidavid/status/1840788257522540850?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And here you have a knocked-out Russian T55 in Kursk
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1840325132851536353?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And possibly we have reached the next level in the tank depot 😁
https://x.com/andrewperpetua/status/1840929111809601548?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And RU is starting to run out of LV as well in addition to all other materiel we have followed
https://x.com/ath3nen0ctu4/status/1840421359559561725?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
New UA drone besides Dracarys – a lot of dead Russians from one of these
https://x.com/stakmaskin/status/1840878365428818277?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w