11:26
Yes, the media should definitely tighten up how they describe the world’s despots.
Angola’s president for 28 years was very popular in the West – he was a scoundrel who plundered the country and his family gained status 500 years ago when they started their career selling slaves to the Portuguese.
He plundered the country and imprisoned political opposition.
But in Western media he was a great statesman and leader and the EU wanted to shake hands with him.
11:37
Does anyone have the Bloomberg article unlocked so you don’t have to rely on Noel’s summary?
It sounds like the West is seriously planning for negotiations with a ceasefire.
Bloomberg has high credibility but it would be good if one could read the article.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1840655347352019374?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
12:50
Super, that was pretty much exactly what we wrote about yesterday so fun that Bloomberg agrees with us in the thread 😀
I’m hung up on the wording – The West needs a better plan, according to Bloomberg.
We will see quite soon whether it has substance or not.
14:42
We discuss I..el far too little because the US is even more on them that their defensive war is unwanted and that they have the whole world against them – big things are happening in Russia’s MENA escalation right now but I have been too upset that the peace plan was not approved to be able to write about it.
The question one should ask is – why didn’t I..el say that they would liberate Nasrallah?
Or, why didn’t Ukraine say that they would invade Kursk?
What worried them so much that they kept it secret?
16:36
The Economist now has another hit-piece that Ukraine should cede land for peace.
If no one is pushing this anywhere in the West, why does The Economist have an article about it?
https://x.com/acoyne/status/1840219856165109915?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
18:22
Absolutely, that’s what one wants, it’s good and is probably part of the overall dance.
Then I am of the opinion that if RU escalates and one does nothing oneself like after NS1-NS2, Khakovka, ethnic cleansing, drones/missiles into NATO, sabotage throughout the EU, shooting down Reaper drones and then when RU threatened with piracy in the Black Sea propose that they get SWIFT back – then the escalation ladder is quite one-sided because it is only Russia that escalates without consequences, roughly.
If we come to the point in the escalation ladder that Ukraine gives up?
I don’t think any living person now including Ukraine themselves can foresee that and the longer time goes by the higher the risk for it, right?
11:23
The Mech lions
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1840247529973112966?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The lions are as bad as me at dancing, the green helmet has stolen my world-leading dance style that was a hit on the dance floors in my youth and made the pickup artists green with envy.
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1840301315425005608?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The Russians have now learned to use FPV drones against people like Ukraine does, so they are chasing civilians on the streets in Kherson with FPV drones and killing them.
https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1840366056264589539
And 80% of Ukrainian children have PTSD symptoms – they suffer from the war not ending as quickly as possible.
https://x.com/lexa_lrnt/status/1840401525195059492
Regarding Sullivan knowing what he’s doing, he said a year ago that the Middle East has never been calmer – aged quite badly but nothing he wants to be reminded of, that he has zero control and we haven’t seen more turmoil in MENA since the Yom Kippur War.
Do you remember that we in the thread already before this statement reasoned about Russia’s global escalation in steps?
How could Sullivan miss what we in the thread knew?
https://x.com/jerrydunleavy/status/1840389069802439101?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
You have heard the whole EU say that RU is ready for an offensive in 2029 (was it) and that the EU now must rearm significantly.
The USA is apparently preparing for a major war.
Isn’t it simpler to let Russia take a major defeat instead of letting “escalation management” lead us straight into a global third world war because no one set limits?
https://x.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1840477019856925139
Here you have ISW arguing that Storm Shadows into Russia can change the outcome of the war, or speed up the decisive victory. We all know and have respected ISW throughout the war, right Erik14?
https://x.com/rshereme/status/1840265057134854330?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Timothy Snyder on how the USA constantly follows all of Putin’s new red lines that he pulls out of the hat.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1840505546711105700?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
According to stolen documents, the Russian influence operation in the USA aims to create “nuclear hysteria”.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l5ebqaf3pj2o
I will never be able to see a logical handling of this war from the West – we are heading towards a global conflict that everyone is preparing for but the will to stamp it out as quickly as possible is close to zero with the reasoning that it could escalate the situation, which we are heading towards because we don’t put a stop to it. Even the evidence that it would not escalate the situation is overwhelming.
Good times breed weak men (and women), weak men bring bad times, bad times breed strong men (and women), as the saying goes?
Zelensky, the dancing comedian, unexpectedly became our time’s Churchill – he has found much strength during this war and is a great man (or whatever he identifies as). I don’t think many others in Ukraine could have managed to shoulder that role and he probably owes a lot to his acting training.
The nation Ukraine has proven carved in granite and the Ukrainian national spirit tougher than Ragnar Lothbrook in Vikings which for a Swede is probably the highest honor one can bestow even if a Ukrainian might think it’s just a TV series.
Over the years we have heard how bad the Ukrainian army is and how much better other countries in Europe would fight. The examples have been many and then there are a few who talk about the world’s best infantry in the midst of all this unfair hate against Ukraine.
Ukraine has fought this war alone with too little materiel and we have countless Taipale where they fall behind piles of spent shell casings.
Desertions, spontaneous retreats and surrenders have been very rare from Ukraine in this war and we are 2.5 years into it.
The best we have to compare with is 1939 – 1941 and how well Europe’s armies performed when they were truly tested.
Since then we haven’t had to fight and it has gone so far that some sit and complain about Ukraine and think they would do better, no names mentioned and absolutely no one forgotten.
There are countless “3 tours in Iraq” who left after half a year because it was hell on earth.
Do you know who remain – all the teachers, engineers and librarians, men and women, who haven’t seen their children for several years and who risk their lives every day with too little materiel.
Even when the ammunition ran out early 2024 they kept fighting.
If someone tells me – “defend yourself against a tank without anti-tank bullets” – then I would tell them to go to hell because you can’t demand that from me. The Ukrainian empties the Trangia stove, makes a Molotov cocktail with the polar’s cola bottle and then runs across an open field and takes out the tank Finland-style.
Ukrainians are the very definition of solving the task with existing materiel even if it’s a stick and two rubber bands that you manage to make a deadly trap out of that kills an entire platoon of beer drinkers.
This film is always good to watch again when you feel you would fight better than the Ukrainians.
https://x.com/iaponomarenko/status/1525556432959070208?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
How does NATO Article 5 work in practice?
We know it hasn’t been tested and there is some concern that Putin wants to see how it works.
Finland’s Stubb for example, and Finland says nothing unnecessarily.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1839974549758026181
This is how Article 6 defines what could trigger Article 5 – we have already had quite a bit of that, haven’t we?
Houthis in the Red Sea, the Russians’ piracy in the Black Sea, all the drones that exploded in Poland and Romania and destroyed Reaper drone by Russia over the Black Sea. In Syria, the USA crushed a Wagner regiment.
You understand just like me that all drones and missiles into Poland and Romania are to test NATO’s willingness to invoke
Article 6.
on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.”
Here comes Article 5
“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”
We have now been hearing for 2.5 years that the EU has nothing to send and the EU has not been able to get units into the Baltics or help them build their bulwark against the East. The Latvian brigade is still being set up.
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have a vanishingly small defense force and today in 2024 no deep minefields or fortifications against RU, I believe they are supposed to start building soon, or maybe it has already begun?
What happens in practice if two Russian ACs in a cloud of drones take ground in the Baltic states and go on the defense behind their own deep mine lines under air defense, artillery, and air umbrella?
They are currently setting up an AC against the Baltic states.
Now I need some help – Article 5 is activated according to the above wording and I guess the respective countries’ parliaments must vote on the type of operation?
In a situation in the USA where Trump holds the grip on the GOP even if he loses, can they send troops if the Senate/Congress is against it and Trump manages to create a smoke screen?
Kamala Harris probably has to continue being cautious around Trump.
Or if Trump wins 😲
Different countries in the EU that have nothing (according to their own statements), what are they supposed to send?
The countries where Putin-loyal parties give the government or parliament under 50%, what do they do?
And now to the most important – will NATO decide to retake a small piece of territory in a peripheral country even if it is some kind of Surovikin line there and they estimate 50,000 fallen British and French?
To me, it feels like there are several question marks and that the best thing would be if Russia DOES NOT test Article 5. Because IF the response is not the annihilation of Russian units within a month THEN NATO has fallen and all countries that are weak but in NATO are legitimate targets again.
What if a dozen countries are suddenly invaded – how will NATO react to that?
We are already at step one where Russia is testing responses against aircraft, ships, and missiles/drones against NATO.
And carrying out a huge amount of sabotage throughout the EU completely without consequences.
What is the signal to Putin and Russia right now, do you feel?
The next step is to take a small area in Finland or the Baltics and make it difficult to retake and see what happens. The whole “green men” concept is run again with maximum smoke screen with AC behind.
And Putin will deny, threaten with nuclear war, and portray NATO as the aggressor.
Finland will be able to run over the Russians so it should be in the Baltics that are still defenseless after 2.5 years of high-intensity war in Europe.
A few weeks ago Finland and Estonia went out and described how they will cut the route into St. Petersburg in the event of conflict.
And now Stubb goes out and confirms that if Estonia or Finland are subjected to hybrid war they will respond.
Where are Sweden’s statements of support for this?
Why is Finland making all these statements now and together with Estonia?
I can probably think that we should do a joint effort with Finland who has done a joint effort with the Baltics here but then I am just an opinion holder and have no responsibility – we should make very sharp statements and show that we are moving troops.
We are at a point where one must choose a side. And there is no law that you have to support but then you also have to accept the consequences – new alliances are forming now.
Non-escalation, restraint, and neutrality are nice words to let someone else have their children murdered without helping because you are cowardly.
The FAB bombs are allowed to continue raining down undisturbed for a while longer and they are the reason RU is advancing. From that we can perhaps conclude that RU will continue forward?
This is a bit like when the tank came in WW1 or the Stuka in 1939 – there was no countermeasure against them. The bombs cannot be shot down with air defense and you cannot get to the traps.
RU drops 4000 per month and they have a large effective portion that takes out bunkers and reinforced positions and the hit pattern is good enough to do maximum damage.
It is hard not to see the FAB bombs as a big problem which has been flagged many times by Ukraine itself.
RU has, as is known, built up a substantial missile stockpile and they have friends who do not betray so North Korea and Iran have contributed missiles, including ballistic ones.
I have no clue how many were lost in UA attacks on depots and trains but that is also a way to reduce the impact that is coming soon – it feels like UA is going after the depots ahead of the winter missile rain.
I have very poor knowledge of how much air defense ammunition has been sent and what has been delivered in platforms. I remember that the USA stopped Poland’s delivery of Patriot but that Romania was allowed to send, right?
And Germany has some new air defense support but when is the actual delivery (1.2.3… Badaboom)
What is on the list to be delivered does no good on site and does not count.
Ukraine probably needed 25 more systems to have decent coverage, they have said?
RU has some experience shooting where Ukraine unfortunately has no air defense 😐
The first question then is – air defense missiles vs Russian missiles, who has the most?
The second question – how good coverage does UA have against secondary and tertiary targets?
You can be completely sure that RU will start the autumn missile campaign. They start their flights from air bases Ukraine cannot effectively attack and release the missiles at a safe distance and this year all targets are legitimate targets.
Because if there are plans to hit the nuclear power plants as Zelensky has told us, the Rada is a smaller target and GUR was already cut last year.
Since Ukraine cannot retaliate proportionally, we have to hope they have enough for painful pinpricks at least.
If they run out of air defense missiles like they did last year and RU still has missiles left, it will be a shooting range again this year. Last year most of their pre-war electricity production was lost.