12:20 – Johan No.1
Not much to report on the fronts – RU is advancing north from Vuhledar, RU has gotten into a much better position in Chasiv Yar and managed to claw its way into the buildings in Zhovetnvyl. RU is now blowing up the bridges over Oskil but UA has carried out a counterattack against the wedge down towards Oskil so that wedge has been marginally reduced.
The FAB cloud is still dense, long list of places that have been airbombed.
If it should happen that the tough decisions are not made by the West before Christmas and they do like everyone else (except Ukraine who continues to die for the West) and take Christmas break and feel that everything will be resolved in January –
Then Putin has +2 months of undisturbed offensive ahead and probably another month in January before decision-makers have gone through their inboxes and had their first Teams meetings with colleagues in the West.
I often feel that the West should listen to Dudayev
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1847166584227340414?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Or Finland, Finland is probably the country that knows Russia almost best after Ukraine?
Finland warns as clearly as possible.
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1847166584227340414?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The North Koreans are just a symptom of an underlying plan to carry out an offensive from the Russians. 12,000 North Koreans is not very much, maybe 4 brigades. The rumor about 1,500 SOF was perhaps a bit more disappointing.
But we also have the two army corps that were supposed to be ready around the turn of the year that are being assembled – there is no threat along the entire Russian land border so they are to be counted as strategic reserve. NATO and the USA have made this very clear to Putin several times.
And the 40 brigades we cannot place on the unit maps, are they disbanded or are they in reserve behind the fronts – who knows?
What we do know, however, is that Budanov has told us that Russian army combat forces in Ukraine will increase until the turn of the year.
Then we have the southern front where the brigades have not really fought since the Ukrainian spring offensive ended – how much can they be re-equipped and rested in a year?
At Pokrovsk Gregg says that RU has gathered many offensive reserves so we have to believe him.
And at Kursk the 50,000 – 70,000 Russians are not tired yet.
And then Putin can, if he wants, tap into his 450,000 letter-agency forces, FSB, Rosgvardia, others, others, PMC and so on. Because the USA and the West have also been very clear that a destabilized Russia is not desirable.
Putin can simply gather everything he has to wage war in Ukraine since no other threats exist anywhere, except within the country.
What I want to say here is that the Russians have a considerable offensive capacity left and it is a sign that they intend to use it in the near future. If it starts to look like they can reach a decisive outcome, they will not hold back at all – then it will be full throttle and the FSB will have to start running around in the fields.
How would our leaders in the West around Christmas handle a breakthrough or front collapse in Ukraine?
Not at all is my guess actually, Lex Tsunami 😀
Ukraine’s offensive reserve was 14 brigades but maybe 4-5 are equipped and at least two of them train in the West.
We know that maneuver brigades everywhere are short on both equipment and personnel and that they will not get enough F-16s in the near future.
Some brigades at the fronts are just infantry today and then there is some mechanized battalion behind as a rapid reaction force. What they have in terms of close combat vehicles, anti-tank missiles and manpads I don’t know but some brigades have flagged shortages of a bit of everything – even drones which is a bit strange.
Before the war started, Ukraine had prepared as best they could and was fully equipped with the whole battery of infantry reinforcement weapons and managed to stop RU which was only 190,000 strong.
Now RU is probably at least 3 times that number and they have learned how to handle the battlefield somewhat and if UA is short on infantry reinforcement weapons it can get lively.
I usually scan the lists of support and there is less of that – is it omitted or not sent, or has UA’s own production capacity caught up?
So we should not be led by 2022 at all here and assume that Ukraine can easily absorb a larger Russian offensive on all fronts.
We will see, I have probably given up my hope that the West has actively worked with risk analysis in this war actually. The problem is that if that were the case then suddenly the risk is unacceptably high – the West simply does not have control.
An offensive wedge down into Bryansk is in any case a low probability.
Through Belarus I think Lukashenko will manage to prevent it again but the problem is that if there are signs that Ukraine is losing then Lukashenko will become the biggest warmonger of the millennium and at least allow Russian forces to attack down through Belarus.
One did not become very calm directly by the strategic communication from this meeting with all the leaders was that the election in the USA is more important – first out was the Polish president and then CNN et.al write the same thing. Putin knows just like us now that he has at least three months to be left alone.
I am pretty sure that Ukraine does not have time on its side here but we should not underestimate the feeling of “now that’s enough for this year, now I’m taking Christmas break and then we’ll take care of this again in January” – that force is strong in most people whether they want it or not and it is probably strongest among our elected officials.
Rocket rain over Russia will only happen when UA, France, Italy, Germany and the USA say it will happen regardless of whether all other Western countries support the decision because they are the ones who have the rockets.
“they enthusiastically praised each other for the far too weak support they have given Ukraine” is NOT a good grade 😐
https://www.dn.se/varlden/anna-lena-lauren-biden-och-scholz-hyllar-varandra-for-ukrainastod-som-inte-ar-tillrackligt/
But Scholz decided to top it with the worst comment of the month anyway.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1847227147515019642?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Germany is also against Ukraine joining NATO – why do you think that is, I would think Ukraine would become NATO’s most valuable member if they joined.
Scholz is, to me, dangerously close to ending up in the same category as Orban actually through his statements.
He does not have full control over the equipment that is sent so he cannot take credit for all of it but he fully owns his own statements.
The F-16s are probably still too few to risk against the FAB traps, and they might still be needed for the Russian missile barrage for now?
Actual deliveries of everything now promised – no clue but pretty sure that the depots and transport fleets also have something called Christmas break.
There are absolutely also reasons to suspect that the Russian bastards will start offensives on Christmas Day, New Year’s Day, and all that stuff that was probably the plan against Sweden.
They will do their best to knock out the power supply, and surely a lot of communications officers from NATO will go home for Christmas, and in December a whole bunch from the International Legion will decide they have fought long enough, and all the volunteers delivering to the front will take Christmas leave.
It’s basically the completely wrong time to leave Ukraine alone but it’s heading that way.
The USA will send its soldiers to Ukraine to learn from the subpar Ukrainian shooting
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1847334799016382538
UNIFIL has a rather interesting goal drift in resolution 1701 – what have we really been paying for all this time?
https://x.com/drelidavid/status/1847333218871136303?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
UNRWA also has a black mourning band in its profile picture, whether it was for Sinwar or his bodyguard who worked for UNRWA is unclear.
https://x.com/unrwa/status/1846949851373723713?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Here are the North Koreans just so NATO doesn’t misunderstand.
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1847320427435106680?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Also want to highlight Russian strategic communication –
1. Lavrov has dropped the oblasts in his statement.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1847271466301088194?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
2. RU refers to the Istanbul agreement and it included some autonomy for Luhansk and Donetsk at least, so not Russian but Ukrainian under freedom.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1847297463075426783?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
3. Putin is confident again, no flickering gaze and droopy – he feels things are going better.
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1847312499860754557
4. Putin met Zelensky’s nuclear threat hard and directly (something he therefore took seriously…)
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1847280621501985145?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
A journalist who stands with Ukraine
https://x.com/jplindsley/status/1847268511413915731?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
12:26 – Johan No.1
I think the answers speak for themselves – democracy only works as long as laws are not made just for those who follow them.
The phenomenon in the world is the same as in Sweden – when some simply don’t give a damn and do as they please and the consequences don’t come, it becomes quite one-sided.
And then there are always victims who suffer because one fails to follow up on laws/practices – the crimes then affect them.
An interesting question to say the least about how to move forward from here, I myself think letting Russia taste the full battery of international law and consequences would be a good start and then you take it from there.
12:38 – Johan No.1
Interesting that the North Koreans have visited the Russian strategic missile troops – you understand that South Korea is not very happy with the development.
Now this is not an escalation, let me explain – when 12,000 North Korean soldiers go to Ukraine to fight, there are fewer in North Korea, so de-escalation.
The same with the missile carriers for the nuclear weapons – there are fewer in Russia when they give them to North Korea, so de-escalation.
And then the most important point – when North Korea fights targets in South Korea with nuclear weapons, there are FEWER left in North Korea – yep de-escalation that too 👍
Yes, you understood this correctly – it is technically impossible for there ever to be escalation 😀
12:43 – Johan No.1
Wait here, it’s not that pitch black, is it?
I have almost completely refrained from criticizing the non-decisions from the West at the meeting and absolutely not mentioned Biden which is a sensitive point for many. Scholz had to be mentioned because he says too many idiotic things.
The summary of RU forces and that they will go on the offensive is generally known information that I just summed up.
And then a bit of joking about Christmas leave and there I’m probably not guessing, that’s how it goes 😀
12:51 – Johan No.1
France is breaking away as Etik14 writes 👍
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1847589678452490508?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
12:55 – Johan No.1
It would be wonderfully liberating if Ukraine started fighting all targets in Russia with Scalp but maybe that’s hoping for a bit too much.
12:56 – Johan No.1
And the materiel – France has ENORMOUS stocks of EVERYTHING.
13:14 – Johan No.1
By the way, this is what Biden had to say about the VICTORY PLAN
https://x.com/potus/status/1847359734627610709?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
A good statement, I think 👍
16:52 – Johan No.1
The Chinese drones have arrived
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1847606233311715382?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
17:15 – MatsExtrude
Bleak, but we never give up!
17:31 – Johan No.1
Keir Starmer tries to downplay the North Koreans 😳
Pretty serious
https://x.com/yasminalombaert/status/1847394473518780508?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
18:06 – Johan No.1
Is this going to get cursed like Biden?
The USA and the West obviously have to downplay this because if they don’t, a decision will be required from them to increase support in Ukraine.
As long as one can claim that North Korea has not joined the war, nothing needs to be done.
North Korean officers have already died in Luhansk, which is Ukraine, so aren’t they an active party in the conflict then?
According to Putin, the whole NATO is already in the war 😀
18:32 – Johan No.1
It has probably gone something like this –
1. a bunch of officers at a base in Luhansk died in a drone attack.
2. 3,000 are training at a base NE of Mariupol
3. 18 have deserted 7 km (or something) from the border in Kursk
4. 12,000 total are training at various bases in Russia.
5. 1,500 SOF who are now in Vladivostok.
6. North Korean officers have been with the Russian missile troops and “inspected”.
7. South Korea and Ukraine say NK is ready for deployment November 1.
Ukraine says there is another belligerent party in the war that the West has to take a stand on
South Korea has held crisis meetings.
The West is downplaying it.
Wouldn’t the right strategy from the West now be – if a single NK soldier is caught participating in combat, the West enters the war and
-establishes a no-fly zone in western Ukraine
-takes over border control against Belarus.
-manages logistics in western Ukraine.
This is the kind of thing you should use for escalation steps, not downplay it.
The thread believes they are 12,000 girlfriends which probably means the thread would gladly stand in the trench and fight the North Koreans?
But…
What is the important question for me is – how will the West react when these start fighting?
No consequences – there will be many more.
21:25 – Johan No.1
Telegraph reports that it is North Korea’s SOF that have been sent
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1847695535295418713?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
21:34 – Johan No.1
Sounds good 👍
21:38 – Johan No.1
North Korean Special Forces units on the other hand simply do not have access to the resources their adversaries can muster up; so to answer your question North Korean Special Forces units on an individual basis do not match up to their modern counterparts such as the UK’s SAS. The North Koreans make up for this inequality however with sheer numbers, if war were ever to break out on the Korean peninsula North Korean Special Forces units would infiltrate the South en masse by land, sea & air, then they would cause as much havoc as possible. This is the primary function of North Korea’s special forces, to sow confusion & tie down enemy units while the main bulk of the military advances across the DMZ. So, while these units will excel at guerrilla warfare & infiltration,
21:38 – Johan No.1
Sounds a bit like the Siberians during WW2
21:42 – Johan No.1
Now that it’s dark, these are probably intended as a battering ram on some front section.
22:06 – Johan No.1
It might have been fun if Ukraine and South Korea hadn’t flagged this as a big deal.
22:06 – Johan No.1
No one is laughing about this in Ukraine.
22:21 – Johan No.1
Anders Åslund thought the meeting went well 👍
https://x.com/anders_aslund/status/1847648557014130977?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
22:29 – Johan No.1
😲
now it’s beer time ✊
12:10 – Johan No.1
That question should almost be asked to all the rogue states we give aid to?
Serbia received 200 million SEK to promote women’s status in the police or similar just after the transport scandal when all our spies were exposed. I have not read the report that women’s status has been strengthened in the Serbian police either.
UNRWA and UNIFIL are two other cost items that have been caught red-handed in the entire jam jar.
After my time in Angola, I concluded that the aid was largely embezzled and ended up with the elite.
In the case of Angola, it was an excellent way to steal money from the poor in rich countries and give it to the rich in poor countries.