2024-10-20 -

12:18 – Johan No.1

In my opinion, a fairly important post below.
I think this is starting to spiral out of control in terms of escalation and that the West is doing everything it can to avoid even saying the word escalation. For me, this becomes a lack of strategic communication that Putin interprets to his advantage, I guess.
Yes, it took some self-restraint but below you have a post completely without any layer of paint and links to everything.

The USA, UK, Germany, and France praised each other for their efforts as we wrote yesterday and then produced statements like the one below.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1847686542162063744?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

And Biden received a medal from Scholz.
https://x.com/potus/status/1847341897041248764?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

After NATO downplayed the significance of the North Koreans, Kier Starmer said this..
https://x.com/yasminalombaert/status/1847394473518780508?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Loyd Austin has expressed himself similarly to NATO and Kier Starmer.

Then Anders Åslund could no longer hold back.
https://x.com/anders_aslund/status/1847648557014130977?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

South Korea has had an emergency crisis meeting and Ukraine is asking for help, and is retreating on all fronts (will return to that below, a sad tactical loss yesterday).
https://x.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1847244989543150068

Chinese-made drones in Ukraine. Do you remember a week ago when there were “new drones” among the Shaheds that UA failed to shoot down? Probably these
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1847606233311715382?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
(Chinese ammunition, Chinese scooters, Chinese golf carts, Chinese armored personnel carriers, Chinese drones – we take one step at a time up the escalation ladder for Chinese materiel).

And then after China had a major exercise around Taiwan, Xi threatens with all sorts of things just one step below war – in action, he has had a huge exercise around Taiwan and in words he orders the army to prepare for war.
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1847686299865538646

This was already caught on film in 2023.
https://x.com/AMFChina/status/1847667137466216564

Then UA discovered that even the North Korean rockets have Western components in them – the only country not allowed to use rockets with Western components is somewhat surprisingly Ukraine 😲
Beep – beep – beep – beep -beep-
https://x.com/euan_macdonald/status/1847304919050506749?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Yes, one wants to disrupt the election as much as possible, that is reasonably a factor in this but there are probably bigger movements than that – the North Koreans and Chinese drones are not to disrupt the US election. Our leaders should assume the worst and prepare for it, not relativize escalation.

Have you thought about how we have been slowly boiled like frogs over time here in terms of escalation?
Belarus has had/has soldiers and materiel in the war and has allowed its country for transit, Iranian specialists operate the Shahed drones for RU and China has delivered huge amounts of ammunition on North Korea’s ammunition train.

Now North Korean soldiers are on their way and then we need “irrefutable evidence”.
You can keep going like this for quite a while but then we no longer follow established practice and international law at all but the purpose is presumably to avoid having to deal with the problem as long as possible – can Putin be expected to understand that?

Will people sit and study the nuances with a magnifying glass when the Baltic states are also overrun?

I know it’s getting repetitive but wouldn’t it be easiest to hit Russia as hard as possible and ask everyone else to sit down like I..el is doing right now in MENA?

But did you see what happened yesterday 😲
France went directly to Kiev and announced that they fully support the VICTORY PLAN and that they will RESOURCE Ukraine.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1847589678452490508?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

France has monstrous weapons stockpiles with materiel completely without components from the USA.
This is the first glimmer of hope we have had in a long time and I hope the thread does not miss that it is France that unreservedly stands on Ukraine’s side fully in words, actions remain to be seen.
The USA has NOT officially changed its position regarding not allowing the West to permit Ukraine to strike targets in Russia with these countries’ weapons.
The USA has a presidential election to think about, this has been made clear by most insiders now.
Yes, somewhat prematurely because not until we see ACTION do we know that it is true and it is a Scalp in the Kremlin.
The USA might possibly sabotage the Scalp perhaps because it also uses the map service from the USA?
But all other materiel Ukraine can get.
France has at least understood this about strategic communication and in terms of hope you can apparently always trust the French. It turned out you could trust Iran, North Korea, and China too which is a bit worse but that’s how it is.

This is what the Russian offensive looks like in summarized form and not just in arrows from the maps.
https://x.com/anno1540/status/1847657775540715938?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

And Warmapper has interesting maps that are perhaps a bit ahead of the curve, not so conservative.
https://x.com/war_mapper/status/1847447978476232953?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Then something else happened that worried me in a series of events, according to Deepstatemap Kruhlyakivka is now captured by the Russian bastards and northern Luhansk is cut into two parts – that alone is bad enough because now the whole northern Luhansk can start to be rolled up.

We get videos afterwards and Deepstatemap is also after the fact but when they update it is definitive. Then everything can of course change through future counterattacks but that is the situation today, with some delay and without having changed at the time of the update.

We first heard that UA conducted a counterattack against the settlement Kruhliakivka which is the settlement in front of the attack vector towards the Oskil watercourse in northern Luhansk.
According to reports, there was a Russian company (maybe) in the locality of which at least one platoon was lost but none of the maps have even had that locality as contested before and then RU was already “at Oskil”, and a few kilometers deeper than what the maps showed.

Then a unit from GUR attacked in soft vehicles apparently supported by 77th Air Mobile and the fight was admittedly impressive but what worried me was that in Vovchansk, Oskil and north of Kharkiv it is GUR that conducts the counterattacks and retakes the areas.
77th recently conducted an attack a little southwards and GUR is kind of a mobile task force nowadays apparently.
GUR should be SOF deep behind enemy lines and is probably among the most valuable assets there are. A bit like when RU uses their Spetsnaz as shooters or those 30 RU combat divers who died on a hill in Kharkiv.

And according to unit maps, there are several UA mechanized brigades in the area.
So when RU reaches Oskil with a company, they have to “fly in” GUR who then conducts counterattacks together with a brigade fighting further south.

It has been the same with the 12th Azov or 3rd Assault, they sneak around and carry out counterattacks everywhere.
The point is that the number of UA units that should be in the vicinity should easily have been able to smoke out a company of Russian bastards if they had not been understaffed and low on equipment.

This signals to me that the level of some maneuver brigades is not high, and that would fit into the eternal discussion about the mobilizable age for UA and Zelensky’s constant whining about the West not sending enough equipment.
It would also fit with the 72nd Mechanized and that they were short on everything.

Unclear when in time this was, but the 92nd brigade has also fought – an assault brigade.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1847721694393487837

(Rob Lee reports about fewer and fewer UA mobilized in training over time.)
https://x.com/ralee85/status/1847658231453167977?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Then RU tried to retake the lost area but the 1st NG and 77th had then gone on defense and repelled the attack.
https://x.com/FriaUkraina/status/1847738237755805890

And then the area was apparently lost again in further RU battalion attacks, which for obvious reasons we do not get videos of.

According to the maps, UA has 8 brigades in the area and besides those above that have fought, there are 3 Mech, 2 Home Guard, and two reconnaissance battalions.
That they needed to fly in GUR to smoke out a Russian company and then retreat for Russian battalion attacks means to me that the brigades are in poor condition.

The northern part of Luhansk being split into two parts is a tactical loss for Ukraine and something one wanted to avoid so much that one risked GUR.

Then we have the thread’s joke about the “12,000 girlfriends from North Korea who are to be unmasked” which is more than somewhat relativizing but it aligns with what our leaders in the West want it to be.

Ukraine has asked for help because we now have an additional warring party and South Korea has held crisis meetings because North Korean officers have received VIP tours of the Russian strategic nuclear forces.

Yesterday it seems Ukraine droned many bases where the North Koreans train, at least Oryol but guessing more. You know those bases just outside Ukraine that the USA never gives permission to be effectively targeted.

So what are the North Koreans – it is UP TO 12,000 SOF whose specialty is to infiltrate and cause havoc before the maneuver brigades roll in. It is the border with South Korea, which is the world’s most fortified, and the combat plan North Korea can come up with
It is 4 brigades and exactly what is SOF or other is a bit unclear, that’s why I wrote “up to” above.
North Korea has 200,000 SOF by the way, so there is some to draw from.

But if we assume a worst-case scenario – Putin has asked for 12,000 SOF whose specialty is to, as expendable units, nestle into the enemy’s prepared defense lines and by means of knife and bomb belt try to open a hole for the maneuver brigades to flow through again, then it feels like a good addition.
Considering where the North Koreans have been “sighted” so far, it is reasonable to assume that they will try simultaneously in several places.

On the other side lie UA thin lines of home guard without image intensifiers, low staffing, poor equipment, and dead tired – that is what it looks like along the southern front for example. Behind them stand some battalion forces from the mechanized maneuver brigades.
Continuing to relativize this may prove to be a mistake.

The USA has gone and leaked I..el’s combat plan for Iran – really nice.
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1847761577816338892?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Ukraine learned this the hard way and kept quiet about Kursk with Zelensky’s justification that the USA otherwise leaked it – it is the same USA that one is not allowed to criticize in the thread by the way.

Now that Sinwar has been freed and IDF stands in his bunker and sees all the UNRWA merchandise and all the cash, I have to remind that this is exactly the area that became Ha…as last battle.

It is the area that the entire West unanimously SCREAMED that IDF absolutely must not enter.

USA threatened with withdrawn support and many governments became furious over the coming humanitarian catastrophe.
IDF is now starting to clear the area and since they cut the tunnels to Egypt before, they are basically wiping out all of Ham…as.

Here somewhere you begin to see how complicit the West is in having the problem we have in MENA, I think.
UNRWA, UNIFIL, direct influence so that IDF should not enter the right area and so on. “Someone” whoever that is has pretty good communication channels straight into the West to persuade them to try to stop I..el from succeeding.

To really understand how ridiculously expensive UNIFIL has capsized, China(!) has released a film from inside a UNIFIL base where it films Hez…bollah rocket attacks against I..el a few hundred meters away
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1847577154667643242?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

But this time it seems I..el has thrown out the script and is going for it.

RU domestic flights are finished so they are asking for relief from neighboring countries.
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1847810549913907382?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Africa is asking for help
https://x.com/philipobaji/status/1847386917371007441?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The money from G7 is partly a loan
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1847730140526395890?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Åslund boiled over again
https://x.com/anders_aslund/status/1847716345837654423?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The world has got a new boy band – The Chamberlains.
https://x.com/TallbarFIN/status/1847722334787944902

13:18 – MatsExtrude

👍 Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem to matter what happens, the West is not going to do anything that could lead to escalation regardless of what Russia and its friends come up with.

Hope that maybe it can change sometime after Nov 5.