12:21 – Johan No.1
At the fronts, RU’s other attack vector against Oskil near Andriivka has advanced somewhat and it is there the 77th Airmobile previously made a counterattack and then RU is near Petropavlivka up northeast of Kupiansk east of Oskil – the now encircled area east of the town of Kupiansk will be difficult for Ukraine to hold.
Then UA has lost marginal land in Kursk but that is probably more of a map adjustment than a movement.
In Toretsk, UA is slowly retreating and my analysis was also proven wrong for that area – I thought they had set a barrier there. The fact is that in my analysis two weeks ago, UA is now retreating in all the areas I considered they had control over.
Concern is also increasing among UA for a Russian offensive on the southern front and near Kherson RU continues to attack in the delta.
Do you remember when the USA announced that ATACMS or Storm Shadow were no longer effective so their decision to stop was no longer valuable because RU had moved all its aircraft beyond their range?
Always fun to catch someone lying – airfields in Bryansk with TU22M3 bombers showed that the USA was just looking for excuses (which they also lied about!) not to lift the ban for EU countries to allow UA to strike targets in Russia with Storm Shadow. The same USA we are not allowed to criticize in the thread.
https://x.com/treaschest/status/1848236974068424791?s=46
Trying to find something positive in this mess but it’s not the easiest. The mistake I think many make is that they decide the West has it under control and when the West is not worried, they are not either. If Scholz, Biden and Starmer are smiling into the cameras, you just go back to bed.
Finland, the Baltics, the Nordics, Poland, Sweden and the Czech Republic are EXTREMELY worried I can report – arms race to catch up, harsh statements and readiness exercises.
The mistake I possibly make in my world-leading analyses and technically challenging experiments is to believe that the West has NOT decided to let Ukraine give up land but we are not quite there yet to start claiming that – you can’t start accusing our leaders of anything, right? Because if the quartet has decided that, then I understand their total disregard right now and giving each other medals.
But if so, the West has not yet understood that Putin will not want to negotiate now that he is advancing, so then it’s game over.
Darth Putin delivers as usual
https://x.com/darthputinkgb/status/1847949087322124383?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
But his point should not be ignored – there is already an agreement where Ukraine’s sovereignty is guaranteed and those around the table giving each other medals have promised to help Ukraine with weapons if needed and this IS a very big watershed that they choose not to do so – many assumptions about our common defense fall.
In this mess, Putin’s subversive activities are also simmering because for him it is the HIGHEST priority that the West DOES NOT escalate in Ukraine – but who is doing his bidding besides Orban, Fico and maybe Scholz in the EU is hard to say. I will return to that below but it seems like the Moldovans may just have made it 😀
Then you can try to relativize the problem one more round and argue that if Ukraine gives up some oblasts we are not in 1938 but I personally think the escalation we see in the world right now is deadly and at some point there is no currently living head of state who can control this anymore – we all become reactive and the war has taken on a life of its own – a global life of its own.
WW1, WW2 and the world wars before them were exactly the same – countries were swept up one after another as time went on.
“When the first shot is fired, all battle plans go out the window” said some German general already during WW1 and at least Russia has learned this the hard way 2.5 years into its three-day operation.
Right now people are doing a bit like Qanon, hoping for the next date and the rock-hard belief that the West has agreed on everything and will strike – just wait until November 5 😀
You have to enjoy the little things in the meantime. CV90 that fought inside Russian territory in Kursk 👍
https://x.com/friaukraina/status/1847890897674899630?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Or that Lloyd Austin makes a spontaneous visit to Ukraine
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1848247148917162412?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Or that I have found world-leading funny videos for this week’s Friday drinking, and that I will not start after lunch so I pass out two hours after dinner – a lifestyle change that is something else and reform and improvement promised (meaning I drink more but later) ✊
Back to the subject – now that northern Luhansk is cut in two and RU can start advancing behind UA both south and north in the sky along the Oskil river, it’s time to discuss the 1991 borders.
Will Ukraine practically be able to retake this terrain if RU conquers everything down to Oskil?
I don’t think so because they have to cross a formidable watercourse and as soon as RU has conquered the area it will be fieldworks.
Then it was also the case that even during WW2 life was mostly normal everywhere except at the fronts – yes occupied countries were not super fun and rationing but life went on as long as you gave some bastard to the police now and then so you were popular.
In apocalyptic Angola, life went on after the worst possible civil war for 35 long years.
In North Korea, the privileged class lives like an upper middle class in Sweden.
The northern flank (the Baltic Sea) I think is among the hardest places to wage war for Russia – that they would reach Sweden is unlikely so we can continue to live in freedom and let Finland take the hit.
But Moldova, the Balkans, and the Baltic states are in the danger zone and Finland will have a new cold war to deal with.
Serbia, Hungary and Slovakia are already with Russia – and have placed many orders for our best weapon platforms (the naivety is so enormous that I can’t handle it) 😭
The first thing to be tested is Article 5 in the Baltics, and there is probably an optimal window for it. If I were the Baltics and Finland, I would have round-the-clock monitoring starting from November 6.
Has it occurred to you yet that IF Trump wins the election, then Putin has managed to hijack the US presidential election – a dizzying thought, right, that Vladimir Putin managed to circumvent the US democratic process and even win?
Do you think he and Xi will hold back after that, you who do not believe in further escalation in the thread and that we are in 1938?
And no one has yet reflected on the fact that COVID, which the Chinese developed and accidentally released, would have been a perfect weapon to drop over Taiwan and then cut all flights to the island?
For me, in hindsight and with China’s threats against Taiwan, it fits all too well, except that the bunglers released it prematurely and in their own country by mistake.
Back to influence, I understand that my wild speculations that RU is responsible for most of the subversive activity in the West are met with some skepticism and sympathy.
Now we unfortunately know that RU accounts for 80% of the subversive activity in the world (together with Iran).
We also know that they manipulate the US election and have a candidate, which alone should make everything else I write credible.
This one is interesting, it is Hez…bollah that has financed the P..ar movement in the West 😀
I have also written about this often as it is a page from the Cold War playbook, but now they say it themselves, so it is PROVEN.
(with our taxpayer money too 😭😭😭)
https://x.com/petersellei/status/1848096555288744367?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And in Moldova, RU bought 20% of the votes and almost succeeded in what they set out to do – that Moldova does not want to join the EU, which seems to be hanging in the balance at the time of writing.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1848197941392990559?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/baglivo_s/status/1848125232566931719?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I know I come across as negative, but I personally think I am far too positive here considering what we are being herded into and that we are supposed to remain passive.
The problem the country USA has to deal with if Trump wins is that they cannot behave undemocratically – you simply have to accept the outcome and grit your teeth for 4 years.
Now Russian subversive activity is not like a demigod – it finds weaknesses that it exploits fully. I..el – the P..a conflict, for example, they have blown up tensions both in MENA and in our countries in the West (yes, they are the architects behind the entire conflict in the area). Tensions between Mus…er and everyone else as well – the Quran burnings in Sweden are a good example.
Now it seemed like Harris did not attend a Christian dinner and then snapped at someone with a “God is with us” comment at one of her meetings that was caught on film, so guess if after two days there was a huge campaign that Kamala Harris despises Christians and burns Bibles.
Throughout an entire war, I have pointed this out and that our countries must “rally under the banners” but it has not been done in 2.5 years, which is long enough for me to start wondering if it is even possible.
Just look at how our own politicians keep calling the government naz…ters and then the Tidö Alliance is supposed to retaliate with just about anything – the level is so low that the country suffers. Or the shutdown of nuclear power, or the shutdown of the defense, or that no one cares who gets paid into their limited company and drives pro-Russian narratives. Or the failure to act against gang criminal clans, culture of silence, welfare fraud, and corruption – this should be prioritized activity one would think, but M’s only proposal is to privatize the prisons.
There is so much for Putin to exploit in Sweden so that he can influence our democratic processes as well, WHICH HE ALSO DOES.
And Putin’s state-prioritized activity to destabilize the West will continue, and intensify, until we put a stop to it. It’s not more complicated than that.
It’s quite simple – Russia is already classified as a state sponsor of terrorism and we have anti-terror laws. Use them. Then use gang laws on top of that because the criminal clans and gangs are their extended arm in the West now, and we as a country would very much like to uproot them.
Impossible you say, but Bukele disagrees.
If you complain about the West or want to describe reality and that the West is doing too little, it is perceived as undesirable.
The classics: “If you criticize Biden, you support Putin” or “I want to be happy reading the thread, not this kind of stuff.”
-If we take Biden’s decision about Storm Shadow, it only benefits one person – Putin.
-If the West does too little, who benefits then – Putin.
-If people stay silent, keep a good face, and don’t complain about the West so they continue to be passive, who benefits then – also Putin.
-So why does no one want to read how the situation is and that the West is doing far too little when it only benefits Putin?
The other narrative being pushed is that Russia will soon fall as long as Ukraine holds out – a pure lie contradicted by Zelensky and now the US’s top general in Europe.
Previously, Germany has also gone against this false image.
The picture painted is deadly because it leads us to believe that Russia will soon fall anytime when the truth is that the country is strengthening every month that passes. We are led to continue to remain PASSIVE.
It is a fine line between holding out and having hope until you are rescued (August 6, 2024) or being forced to accept that help will not come – we are dangerously close to the latter due to continuous passivity from the West.
Until August 6, I chose to project hope because I think it has been needed in this war. Now we are in a situation where it is no longer enough because the West does not have that plan we do not know about – we know exactly how the West thinks here, because we SEE IT in action. We see NOTHING.
The problem is that Russian subversive activity is 15 years ahead and has almost 100 years of work experience. It has its politicians, experts, officials, and well-known debaters who at the right moment delay decisions and ensure that the West continues to remain passive. Russian subversive activity is also here in the thread every day.
Germany is really struggling against the wind because after reunification, Russia got “their people” into the entire administration at all levels. Scholz is either a victim or one of them – hard to know, right 😲
A group of politicians exposed to the full range of Russian influence and where Putin could pay tens of millions in bribes is, for example, the defense committee (not that anyone has switched sides!). It is enough to get a lot of complaints in there and then it becomes too little and wrong.
-Previously, RU tried to ensure that we did not invest in national defense at all.
-And now Putin tries to ensure that all countries in the West strengthen national defense as much as possible so that nothing is sent to Ukraine.
-The best thing would of course be if the funds were spent on things that could not be used – like newly built high-end regiment buildings instead of some weapon to kill Russians with?
Nothing is incompetence or naivety – there is a subversive operation that has been run as a state-prioritized activity since shortly after 1945, and we constantly see how they reuse pages from the Cold War playbook that has infiltrated the entire West. They are Olympic champions in this.
Then if you consider that as soon as someone tries to seriously address the issue, there are criminal gangs and criminal clans that Iran and Russia have access to, and that the person’s family takes the bus to school and work, we have here a huge threat to national security that NO ONE talks about.
Attempts at mapping have also been made in the thread, by the way.
I usually claim that when criminals gain access to the housing market, it’s game over. When black money can be used in that way, they have already infiltrated the entire system, and now we are there.
Whenever I have gotten help with something related to housing loans, the bank has required that the person helping me disclose where the funds come from, so you can just think about how the below is even possible.
(the clan has contacts at the bank is the answer).
https://x.com/polisen_sverige/status/1847589646303449447?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
You don’t have to sleepwalk straight into our time’s global conflict, but first you discover that you can’t influence anything at all, then you discover that if you are in a position to influence something, there are others above you who hold you back, and finally you discover that if you don’t stop, it will have consequences for your career, life, and family.
If Russia can do this with Ukraine, China can do it with Taiwan, and Russia can continue in Africa.
Russia can also do as in Moldova and start toppling NATO countries from within, and over time they can work their way back into the Baltics, or openly challenge Article 5.
If you can influence the election in the USA without consequences, you can do it everywhere and will do it. Russia murders politicians in the West, they bribe, they threaten, and they lock decisions at all levels.
They own entire parties, and throughout the West the majority is often slim, so with small means they can topple major decisions.
They have infiltrated all important functions in society, and you have no idea who you can trust, and people who want to do the right thing are ostracized, bullied, or fired without realizing that it is Russia that controls in the background.
The big question now on the table is how the West will react if little green men steal a piece of land in Latvia, which is the only country Poland or Finland have not explicitly stated they will support for some strange reason.
By the way, I saw that Dengamle wrote a great post last night and one this morning in yesterday’s thread besides his last post which almost felt like a final post – worth reading from someone who has experience far exceeding our combined life experience.
13:11 – MatsExtrude
I agree (and I think I have since I started hanging here) that the West and politicians apparently do not understand the seriousness and that they must do much more.
How deep and serious the Russian subversive operation is, is of course hard to know, but that they do everything they can is obviously clear. Maybe it is actually real threats against relatives and friends, and not at all fear of escalation, that prevents both Scholz and Biden among others from lifting all restrictions and increasing support significantly?
Letting Ukraine defeat Russia would of course make things much harder for them, but doubtful if it will stop them when it comes to their influence attempts. In that case, you would need to crush all of Russia (or at least break it up into smaller parts), and I suspect that would not happen even if Ukraine got everything needed to kick them out.
Though maybe it would fall apart on its own, but I am doubtful.
13:15 – Johan No.1
Yes, something like that will happen, and then there is a landscape in eastern Latvia or Estonia that declares freedom and where the “rebels” set up roadblocks while VDV a few kilometers behind dig in and lay minefields.
Then on the Russian side of the border, artillery, staffs, air defense, and the drone weapon group up.
And now NATO has a decision to make – to retake a piece of land in eastern Estonia at high losses.
Will it be done?
13:17 – Johan No.1
Yes – it is never too late to act, and we as a country will at some point act.
My hope is that Ukraine was the last porous red line and that the Baltics and Finland are real red lines.
But the Baltics cannot defend themselves today and the West has almost no troops in the country.
We need to become a country moving toward war just like all other countries in the EU need to become.
And Ukraine is the last chance that our sons do not die – then it is us who shall die.
13:28 – Johan No.1
You are mixing it up a bit –
Biden has Trump to deal with, and now Trump is probably winning, and Biden does not have the EU and Ukraine as his first problem but China.
Biden is thus DIRECTLY exposed to a Russian influence operation or anyway made passive, right?
That is indisputable and quite strong evidence on the matter.
Scholz probably has a completely infiltrated party and maybe is himself on the wrong side, he has a background as a politician in something like the peace movement and was probably a communist?
Then Biden has advisors and no one has even discussed the risk that they are bought by China or Russia – who knows?
However, we know that a whole bunch of Trump’s advisors and family have Russian money – indisputable.
Threats against the prime minister or the defense minister are not exactly simple.
A politician in the defense committee who played too much online casino and borrowed money, happened to socialize with an escort who turned out to be 14, was eager for lots of money into his wife’s limited company or was first threatened by criminals and then took the money – widespread. They are in the background but can block decisions or lead money to the wrong kinds of investments.
Or shut things down.
Remember that ro-ro port on Gotland 😀
It is absolutely not hard to know because we know exactly how it was during the Cold War and we can safely assume that we are back.
There were 2800 identified by the USA as working for Russia, about 600 in the USA, right?
Everyone in the thread knows Tim Pool, so no unknowns directly.
Trump, Nigel Farage, Le Pen, Zarkozy, Schröder – we know they are on Putin’s list.
Then we have more we suspect but have no proof for.
Moldova almost fell, Slovakia became pro-Russian, Hungary has fallen. In France, Le Pen is probably tipped to become president and Macron had to give the left power so it wouldn’t go to Le Pen’s party.
Half-crisis in the UK and Farage will be relentless.
13:32 – Johan No.1
No is the short answer.
What is done, however, is to use existing terror laws because Russia is a state sponsor of terrorism and then the gang laws to flush everything out.
But that will or understanding does not yet exist in the EU.
They actively criminalize contact with RU.
Then people vote for protest parties for a reason.
Russia was behind the migration crisis in 2015.
And BREXIT was a direct consequence of that.
13:56 – MatsExtrude
I was just speculating about additional possible pressure methods beyond what you already mentioned. Direct threats are probably an effective way to get one’s way when nothing else works (or as complementary pressure measures) and if they are not directed directly at the person you want to influence (as in this case when the people are well protected) there are often other relatives who are not as well guarded.
So I would not completely rule out that risk (even though I don’t really believe in it regarding Biden and Scholz). Not everyone has gambling debts or is attracted to 14-year-olds.
Then, of course, good old massive propaganda probably works well enough to influence elections if they are close.
14:14 – Johan No.1
Don’t you have that, I thought everyone had it 😲
Yes, good point a family is large.
In Sweden, we have had the most “bombings” in a country that apparently is not at war and the question that is rarely asked is – who was the target?
15:12 – Johan No.1
PeterH, in the comment above you write that only Russia has violated the Budapest Memorandum, not the others.
And you refer to that they agreed that Ukraine’s sovereignty shall be upheld, not territorial sovereignty.
Since wordplay is always fun I ran and read the agreement –
Page 169.
To respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.
However, point 4 is interesting because Russia has not used nuclear weapons…
So you are right but maybe focused on the wrong point because the West has only promised to seek support in the UN for intervention if nuclear weapons are used against the country.
What a dishonest damn agreement 😐
https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/Part/volume-3007-I-52241.pdf
That’s the Budapest Memorandum, right?
20:26 – Johan No.1
Check out this thread
https://x.com/hallonsa/status/1848395993034985731?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
20:27 – Johan No.1
Someone wrote about that today 😁
09:24 – Johan No.1
For attack 🤩🤩
Of course South Korea is worried – North Korea is gaining combat experience and they have been looking at Russian nuclear weapons and nuclear carriers and pointed to what they want.
Then South Korea is one of the countries first in line to go there in round two if the West continues to remain passive.
It would be at least interesting if South Korea becomes the ones to solve this, they have Taurus and all kinds of other missiles and high technology not to mention mass weapons, armored vehicles, ammunition.
16:32 – Johan No.1
Ping @NATO
also North Korean pilots
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1848731851084472379?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
11:45 – Johan No.1
A good post Dengamle and your two in yesterday’s thread should be mandatory reading for everyone who reads the blog.
There is a fine line between conveying hope and holding on until help comes or realizing the fact that Ukraine is being thrown to the wolves and we are in extremely dangerous times when Ukraine can no longer handle this.
Then we can sit and argue about the motives but that doesn’t change the substance. Which is exactly what Putin wants and what his subversive activities aim for – that we should remain PASSIVE when the West does not support Ukraine and that the West should remain PASSIVE when he conquers Ukraine.
Have you also started studying Chinese now – Nihao 🙏