10:49 – MatsExtrude
We have said now and then before that this will work out for Ukraine as long as China does not give full support.
The West’s ability to meet most of what Russia undertakes with verbal condemnations instead of forceful actions actually risks leading to China realizing that they have nothing to lose by starting to send weapons and equipment.
Then maybe they would rather run their own race and try to take Taiwan if the US continues to act cowardly.
Sanctions against China risk hitting the West harder than China. Just like in Russia, China can steamroll the population if it turns out that the population gets sour due to a worse economy.
Here in the West, there will be an outcry when people can no longer buy cheap junk from China, or when we can no longer import the raw materials and products that our industry needs.
21:10 – Johan No.1
Artillery 1:2
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1848983074450571515?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
21:57 – Johan No.1
USA not ready for UA in NATO
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1849048310004302321?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
22:33 – Johan No.1
Exciting
https://x.com/p_kallioniemi/status/1849143641459044722?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
08:22 – Johan No.1
Seven countries do not want UA in NATO,
USA and Germany among others.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1849330446393348294?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
08:35 – MatsExtrude
Yes, one could suspect that that point in the victory plan might be hard to get through since during the whole war it has been said that they would gladly see Ukraine in NATO… in the future.
Let’s see how quickly Ukraine can produce nuclear weapons…
(Nice to see that it’s not just me who sometimes misses reading the night shift! 😉 )
10:21 – Johan No.1
米粉万岁 🙏
Lots of meetings and half the team is on vacation so I’m posting a quick note and my world-leading post I flagged yesterday will come tomorrow.
The fronts:
Kursk is surprisingly quiet with fewer UA counterattacks to, as I guess, regain dominant terrain. RU is said to have 50,000 – 70,000 troops in the area and the ratio is 1:5 against Ukraine so a presumed RU offensive ahead. February 1 is the new date for a buffer zone along the entire northern front – not just pushing UA out of Kursk – This means, as we have discussed before, new attack vectors down into Ukraine.
Unless Ukraine preempts Russia with attack vectors into Russia, which I have been expecting since August 6 as it was part of the battle plan. There has been some reconnaissance fighting the past week which is good.
RU reports that they have reached the settlements in Kurakhove and a bit north of Chasiv Yar – Russian sources as mentioned.
RU advances further into Kruhliakivka which means they turned south after reaching Oskil in northern Luhansk. They are now “behind” prepared defenses.
RU is also 1km from Bohoiavlenka which is the next defense line after Vuhledar and we will soon see if UA has the capacity to man it.
Kurakhivka and Selydove are at various stages of being encircled but they only release those when it becomes untenable – delaying fights and nothing to worry about.
RU also seems to be pressing into the settlements in Toretsk and to me it is strange how larger towns can hold out so poorly compared to 2023.
The 72nd mech’s own explanation regarding Vuhledar was that in 2023 they had artillery, drones, mines, and CAS and that this year they were low staffed and no one answered the phone when they requested indirect fire.
Also, the FAB bombs were not available in 2023 so RU had to try to lay a carpet of dumb artillery over UA positions. This year they identify a firing position and X minutes later there is a FAB on it, rinse and repeat.
Everything is always a difference – in 2023 UA drained the Russian units ahead of their spring offensive which then admittedly did not go as planned and in 2022 they conducted a delaying fight that resulted in RU losses becoming completely unsustainable and they withdrew from 50% of conquered territory.
In 2024 UA is retreating from tactically important areas, admittedly bit by bit, but they are retreating. Letting go of the area east of the Oskil river would probably make the combat goal of regaining the 1991 borders impossible so they hold that area if possible.
RU also has heavy vehicles, ammunition, and barbarians to maintain this pressure over time. We constantly see videos with contract soldiers from Asia and Africa, now the North Koreans and then RU’s own recruitment.
We laugh at 12,000 North Koreans but in numbers it is equal to the 4 brigades RU has in reserve that we praise. Capability-wise we assume that UA brigades are significantly sharper which they probably are but there are also NK special forces in that mix, how many we do not know, whose specialty is to infiltrate as a consumable and open a hole for maneuver brigades using knife and bomb belt.
Rumors about RU offensive capacity at the southern front and Pokrovsk paired with North Korean battering ram suggest it could be more of the same.
I see this as a runaway risk which you probably understand by now but the West does not even if Lloyd Austin made a spontaneous visit to Ukraine.
Giving money for war materiel production or promising new weapons packages with long delivery times does not solve the situation at the fronts today in 2024 and it’s almost Christmas break.
How the US election goes is pointless to predict but the EU must prepare for Trump winning and that it is fully possible he will hit the brakes on materiel from the US – you always prepare for the worst like Finland, right?
As if on cue, the GOP campaign for “We Love Christians” (incredible 😂) has now come and I have seen a new tactic from Trump – he infiltrates some Trump fans at Harris rallies and bait her to say something. First she snapped at “Jesus is God” and now she lost her mask when some started shouting “Trump”. Then it immediately becomes a viral video of the whole thing and then Trump’s counter-campaign comes directly which is already prepared.
Whether it works or not I don’t know but Harris gives Trump ammunition completely unnecessarily two weeks before the election and we are again back to it’s war and you have to be street smart period.
Always do like Finland is the rule.
Unfortunately the same applies to the West in general – now the defector Guterrez has given the war criminal Putin legitimacy and still sits comfortably in his office chair.
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1848650377106715111?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The same Guterrez who declined to come to the Ukraine initiative peace summit. The UN has chosen a side.
https://x.com/banderafella/status/1848756986751684832?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And don’t think otherwise – this BRICS meeting is BIG for Putin, how often do you see him this childishly happy?
https://x.com/marionawfal/status/1848688016979530211?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Now we are past the difficult climb where BRIICS did not dare to believe he could succeed and kept away, from having been pals who betrayed him now everyone wants to be seen with Putin.
Why?
Because from their position it looks like it’s going well – Putin is advancing in Ukraine, he has them on the defensive.
The West does not dare lift a finger so it also looks like Putin has a good grip on the West.
And the next step in the escalation ladder also went well – the North Koreans.
Only China’s greater involvement left but so far everything points to it going well, right?
A step that is guaranteed to come (because it has already started) is that all countries in Africa with China or Russia in will stop delivering raw materials to the West.
The area around Mali – CAR – Niger which Russia now controls has already stopped that – those countries announced some time ago that they only deliver to China or BRIICS, I don’t remember which.
This will continue and the key components and raw materials China controls in Asia will also stop coming at some point.
Already in 2022 this was raised and soon 2025 not enough has been done. We will see within a year if the West has prepared for this or not.
If I were the West I would choose my friends in Africa VERY carefully right now and make sure they are stable. I can recommend Angola as they have all the needed raw materials and keep the Russians away.
UA has FPV with 40km range
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1848791813836177767?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Now Turkey is not allowed to re-export weapons to RU, the USA stopped it – now 😲
https://x.com/glasnostgone/status/1848781665352523842?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And PING @NATO because now NK pilots are also coming. Tells me that RU has aircraft but a shortage of pilots.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1848731851084472379?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Interesting theory from DrDrovels yesterday about the UN having a level above the Security Council whose task is to keep the balance with the big elephants, my world is not the same today, was worth reading 😲