14:29 – MatsExtrude
Notice that you have abandoned the boat trip to Ukraine that I have long looked forward to and instead are trying to lure us to take employment as plantation workers on your farm in Angola.
Sounds like a downgrade, but I promise to reconsider the day the Russians have taken Sweden and we have to worship Putin (but the probability of being alive then is of course low, because I do not intend to give up in advance).
We’ll see if the Supreme Commander and our politicians heed your ideas!
15:47 – Johan No.1
There are monkeys, wildcats, and wild boars, and there is free mango – what more is really needed?
I am available as Supreme Commander if it requires taking the country back to 1927 ✊
15:56 – MatsExtrude
That would be if I get to be responsible for the farm distillery (because there is one, right?), where tasting for quality control is included. Absolutely cannot give up the Friday drinking sessions!
The job is yours as far as I’m concerned, as long as you first send everything we have to Ukraine where it does the most good, then the rebuilding can happen when the Russians have been beaten and we have some time.
15:56 – Johan No.1
It is SOF and from the 11th Army that is supposed to be the best.
They probably have long training unlike RU for about a month.
They will run straight into death without blinking – I believe anything else when I see it.
Their specialty is breaking up fortification lines.
It depends 100% on where they are deployed – if they charge into the 3rd or 12th Azov they won’t get far but if they go over a home guard line it will probably go worse.
21:00 – Johan No.1
Scholz is unlucky again
https://x.com/blyskavka_ua/status/1849524665581961372?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
21:03 – Johan No.1
This one was actually funny in all its absurdity
https://x.com/elonmuskaoc/status/1849219286142980099?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
22:48 – MatsExtrude
Now, that was actually a parody account and not Elon himself but it was a bit funny even if the alleged block that it’s based on might be fake.
Otherwise, I sense a certain desperation to bring in money. Twitter was nagging about an offer to upgrade to premium with a 40% discount (and at the end reinforced with “take advantage now before it expires”).
Then a couple of weeks passed and now the offer has been extended with a 50% discount.
11:43 – Johan No.1
The red star in the hat is the best 🙏
Also giving a heads-up for Friday drinking tomorrow, lots of exciting films like showering beaver and stabilized chicken.
In this post, we speculate a bit on how we should prepare for the next war if we get that opportunity and are not drawn into the chaos already now – yes, you can hire me through Swish and we will get a world-leading defense going forward that is unbeatable – otherwise, you will have to live with the torture centers or work for food on my plantation in Angola.
It has been predicted that the drone weapon will take a big leap in 2025, which is probably true, and now we saw UA “anti-drone drones”.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1848068637380456462?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
A cheaper alternative than the drone they shoot down, which in this case are the condors with their constant eyes on the ground
Or FPV drones with 40km range
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1848791813836177767?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
AI drones are also on the way but they are not that revolutionary, are they?
We have had guided ammunition for a long time, STRIX already when I did my military service and if you got fire permission for a GRK battery with STRIX, the exercise leaders judged very favorably – it was a bit of the holy grail that one didn’t really believe in but it was true.
In this war, about 80% or something of armored vehicles have been taken out by drones, so there is some reason to consider that the drone weapon is a natural part of tomorrow’s warfare
We are surely moving towards “mothership drones” and a cloud like in Starcraft 2 of drones being released.
Right now, the West has every reason to be really worried because our super expensive LV missiles are being shot down against the relatively cheaper missiles/rockets in the Red Sea, Ukraine, and I..el.
Yes, the “axis of evil” has larger stockpiles but we also have higher production cost per unit and produce fewer, and they produce more. Translate that cheaper “made in China” to the defense industries.
There are videos of fully automated missile factories in China, for example.
Here you have a Chinese laser – very exciting but it is just a big target that you overwhelm with swarms of drones. But it shows that China is also sniffing around what we know is the future of killing Russians.
https://x.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1848403083233006039
If development is moving towards clouds of drones, then expensive weapon platforms with few shots become vulnerable.
Either the laser gets the ability to combat X targets per second or the money is probably better spent on clouds of anti-drone drones to start with, or you can afford both.
Our anti-tank rockets, mines, and GRG were “our” time’s cheap drone weapons.
We couldn’t afford unlimited tanks so every rifle squad had a personal anti-tank rocket and a GRG round in the group. The mines were maybe with the mine platoon but we carried a load in a terrain vehicle so we could lay our own close protection minefields.
I think nuclear weapons are obsolete now (BUT IF YOU DON’T HAVE THEM, THEY ARE NOT OBSOLETE), Ukraine could have been wiped out with conventional weapons and the West has a red line at nuclear weapons. Yes, they are needed for deterrence but if the balance is maintained, they probably won’t be used.
In the next war, a short kill-chain with good intelligence gathering and conventional long-range missiles is a big threat. Most things are visible in IR on the drones and if you get a missile that is hard to shoot down with LV over you within five minutes, our tradition of regrouping is almost broken.
The thermal blankets also become pointless if you try to use them during daytime – I believed in them but have reevaluated after this video 😀
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1847010634627797435?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
This constant Whack-a-mole but something I think is clear is that a few expensive weapon systems are not enough and that mass weapons are needed. It has to be like with anti-tank rockets and GRG – everyone has them and they don’t run out.
You need all capabilities but you also need a lot of all capabilities.
And above all, DORMANT PRODUCTION CAPACITY – always do like Finland.
Then the mobilization stockpiles – the first thing RU will shoot at right at the start of war is probably the mobilization stockpiles and they will naturally try to time it so it happens before mobilization. They know where they are and they would also have Spetsnaz at the stockpiles to try to shoot away as many as possible, I learned in the military service – dressed in M90 they would demand ID and then you got a noose around your neck.
Can you have a system with rotating mobilization stockpiles or alternatively mountain caves?
And a much larger home guard for earlier protection?
We are probably past Kaliningrad being demilitarized but I find the JAS Gripen’s role to shoot down incoming missiles interesting because we have more Gripens than LV platforms.
And finally – 100% conscription for men and women (and all other identities, no identity is protected from dying in war).
How do you best start building tomorrow’s defense force?
That it will cost a fortune is quite clear and “made without USA” seems to be what applies now when they wave contracts to block everything they can 😀
The navy and air force are naturally our front line and should be expanded with missile capability deep against Russian ports, airfields, and missile carriers. And then the Amphibious Battalion with its coastal missile batteries. This is our prioritized activity for the simple reason that they can inflict great damage early in the war.
Our air force was intended to blaze over the Baltic and Kaliningrad embarkation ports and sink as much tonnage as possible before being taken out – a smart tactic simply.
Super expensive missile carriers can be replaced with more cheap missile carriers for the different functions LV and coastal missile maybe?
We in the armored infantry and PV missile were always quite envious of the infantry’s land-based Robot 56 truck with thermal blanket, GRG, and anti-tank rockets because we experienced our tanks, PBV302 and PVRBV501 as big targets all the time. Those damn coastal rangers learned to lie at the bottom of a ditch in mud and “listen in” where the vehicles came from and then directly up and a great chance to hit with the GRG first shot and then down and hide in the mud puddle again. Taking out a crawling coastal ranger in a deep muddy ditch was impossible with ranged weapons.
ATACMS cluster munitions have been insanely effective against air bases, for example, and RU has started with cluster warheads on their missiles now – long-range missiles with cluster ammunition against Russian air bases should have a future. Area-covering ammunition.
Armored brigades are obsolete – for mechanized brigades, fragmentation protection, IFV, and then support from tanks that maybe are battalion resources are needed. Already in 1994, tank companies were vulnerable to infantry with GRG and anti-tank rockets and the infantry was more useful we felt.
IFV or APC is a bit of a toss-up now in times of mass drones, you can have both in a company? Whatever you choose, all armored vehicles should have cheap close protection against drones as standard.
The drones also work well as a complement to tanks and IFVs for direct fire on target, we have discovered, almost better, and if you have drones on a leash they cannot be jammed.
We need our standing intervention brigades: 2 in the Baltics and 1 in Finland, and mechanized brigades are what applies then. Artillery and air defense are brigade resources and not independent units – also our prioritized units with the latest equipment.
(Imagine if the USA stops our brigades from bringing their air defense, missiles, and tanks made in the USA to the Baltics…).
Then our ranger units for various tasks, and nowadays they probably have missiles and drones in their arsenal – I think this type of unit has proven useful in Ukraine and is something to invest in. We do send rangers to Finland in case of war, and I assume we will continue with that?
And Gotland needs to be turned into a hedgehog, which has probably already started?
But for the mainland, what is needed now when the money has been spent on all the above?
Competent base defense that can handle saboteurs with some type of suitable close-range air defense protection. It is absolutely possible to train the base personnel for this. Image intensifiers can be bought commercially for a few thousand SEK, and snipers/sharpshooters can have civilian hunting weapons in the worst case. Not everything needs to be military specification at 10 times the price and 10 years lead time.
Strategic air defense should be independent and focus on protecting military targets, while civilian targets must be abandoned – according to Ukraine’s example, it is impossible to protect the entire area.
A nationwide Home Guard qualified to solve tasks within their areas with anti-tank weapons, grenade launchers, mines, MANPADS, drones, and why not more advanced air defense or coastal missiles where applicable. Everything is man-portable and transported in VW buses/towed by VW buses instead of on extremely expensive weapon carriers.
(VW is important because I have a percentage on them from the car dealers).
Preferably operational defense at workplaces that are high-value targets and will face sabotage groups, and they can have anti-drone drones as reinforcement weapons.
The police get total defense tasks (yes, I know – they should have a police function and be preserved, but they are easily caught early in the game).
All the above are low-cost Gekås solutions that have zero mobilization time and are well-trained over time. The Home Guard can often be on site within hours. However, it requires some popular mobilization.
Then some heavy mechanized brigades are needed so that each MILO has one (1) offensive reserve that DOES NOT need to be transported across half the country. Older air defense and artillery as brigade resources. Here you have to burn pesetas, and they are prioritized units after the front line and have +72 hours mobilization or whatever it is, and they are equipped with equipment just a notch below what our intervention brigades get. Maybe 5 brigades are needed, including Gotland. You get the Bydena and then equip them a bit depending on where in the country they will operate – Bydena means doing a Finland and buying equipment from all over the world.
Besides that, we need a third line; we start building up a conscription organization where 100% of citizens have done military service, there are mobilization depots, dormant industries, some fragmentation protection, and some tanks as battalion resources. This is the third sorting, and NOTHING is ever scrapped/disbanded.
Brigades that have a longer time for mobilization and depend on transport across the country. These brigades lack artillery, advanced air defense, have some tanks but have the cheap mass weapons and cheap fragmentation protection/unprotected vehicles in the proportion deemed best.
These brigades mobilize to their respective base areas from all over the country, have former conscripts who have left the prioritized brigades, and start training immediately when gathered – they can be scaled up with heavy vehicles, artillery, air defense, and all capabilities over time when supplied, and they become the new brigades needed when the front line and second line have been worn down.
If they are not needed for the country’s defense, they are trained and resourced over time to become the next brigade in the front line.
Voila – if we have 10-15 years, we are probably there; otherwise, we do what we can 😀
Hot tip is to start today.
What I think has been done is that Gotland has been taken seriously together with our front line and also the intervention brigades in the east – that is already underway.
The “second line” has probably just started to be explored, at least the Home Guard is being improved and expanded.
But the “third line” we have not even started after 2.5 years of war, and if war comes, it will be needed. If I have learned one thing in this war, it is that conscription is king.
If you put some different cost items in parity that are not included in the direct social contract (school, healthcare, care, electricity supply, security, research). Below are things you spend money on BEYOND the social contract, so that is why I have brought it up.
– Defense 80 billion SEK/year
– I think we can save quite a lot on the social contract since we have gotten used to “extra everything,” and in times of unrest, you can tighten a bit, but there is more.
– Aid 56 billion SEK/year
– What have they planned to spend on the fast tracks, 700 billion?
– What do the frauds of our common accounts cost (when estimated, reduce it accordingly and send to the Supreme Commander).
– Net Zero and the climate transition is a bit tricky – yes, renewable energy should not be negotiated away, but you have to be careful here, and “carbon-free steel” we can scrap together with the CO2 capture, for example. Here state money is involved.
If we want jobs in Sweden – invest in our armed forces. In Örnsköldsvik and Karlskoga, everyone eats out on Fridays nowadays, but with the Green Party, it’s falukorv when the shareholding in Northvolt became worthless.
We have among the world’s best weapon systems, scale up, make it a prioritized activity, and show the world what Swedish industry is.
Make Sweden a Great Power Again (and take back Norway, we should never have let those bastards go free).