2024-11-11 -

11:59 – Johan No.1

The thread is struggling to shake off the shock after the US election. I have decided to post things about Trump that relate to Ukraine, and since I cannot determine what is true, I post with a disclaimer. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that for Putin this was probably a better outcome than Harris, I have guessed, but I don’t really see those signs right now.

Couldn’t resist posting this one with Tyson doing a good deed.
https://x.com/interneth0f/status/1855520863136760190?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The fronts – on November 6th RU prepared positions near the border in the bulge behind the Sejm, which means UA has left a walkover in the area behind the Sejm. ISW and I have already floated this, but now we have hard evidence.

UA has so far managed to hold the area in Kursk and the offensive start with the North Koreans apparently went anything but well. Considering that Trump’s peace plan possibly includes frozen fronts, I still believe the area has value.

However, that offensive is only in startup and RU has 50,000 troops in the area, including all the conscripts. More is coming thus, but UA has its better units up there if you look at the unit maps.

Up by Kursk, UA should open new attack vectors into RU instead of just defending captured territory, but it could be anything from politics or other reasons that have slowed it down, or simply not part of the battle plan.

In Kharkiv, UA is trying to retake the area up to the border and is reclaiming bit by bit. East of Vovchansk it is just fields and probably no Russians, and as soon as Vovchansk is retaken, the area automatically becomes UA and the city itself is now being retaken one block at a time.

Down by Vuhledar, the offensive UA is trying/attempted to carry out counterattacks from west to east between Zolota Nyva – Shaktarske but the offensive continues to expand.
UA has also rushed in new units in the form of three “storm battalions” which are probably independent rifle battalions that have been included in the “assault” organization and maybe given that status?

72nd Mech has been pulled out.

At Toretsk, RU is advancing again according to Deepstatemap after 3rd Assault’s earlier counteroffensives.

In Northern Luhansk, RU’s attack vector is widening towards Senkove, especially southwards, and they have opened another attack vector that has gained ground towards Borova.
Then it’s not visible on Deepstatemap yet but lots of rumors about RU attacks in the “Lyman direction” which I interpret as the southern part of Northern Luhansk, probably north of the Kreminna forests.

I think one measure that must come quite soon is that Western units go in and take up positions against Belarus and Transnistria to free up UA units that can be moved eastward.
Combine that with rocket barrages against targets in Russia and it might slow down the Russian offensive.
Step two would then be to resource reserves France-style across all of Europe, one country taking full responsibility for 1-2 brigades and training them.

The offensive reserve is probably not even ready for deployment by summer 2025 because there are only a couple of brigades in training now.

Then PBV302 was deployed quite immediately according to Gregg, so there is a feeling that the vehicles came off the trains and then directly to the fronts – signaling material shortage and in line with what Zelensky has said.

It is urgent to do this but the thread knows because I point it out as often as I can.

Biden’s legacy can hardly be clearer when Ukraine looks towards Trump and seems a bit hopeful instead of the opposite.
https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1855364642501169212?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Mandatory reading from Tatarigami about what the targets were in Russia and that the US thought completely wrong, deliberately or unintentionally.
https://x.com/tatarigami_ua/status/1855333854858375661?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Have you also noticed that the unhealthy overconfidence in the US has now been calibrated, our government knows exactly how things have gone since they took office and has probably adjusted its foreign policy slightly.
Besides hoping that Biden lets go of the reins completely, there isn’t much more to comment on about him anymore and Harris is completely out of the picture, the last I read was that the war chest for the election campaign was in the red and that she barely talked to Tim Walz.
Could probably be a tired mallard until January 20th maybe?

The positive thing is that Biden is pushing to get the materiel out which is under “something” act but now the administration has said it will be difficult to get everything out before January 20th and if Trump then wants it, stopped support is an executive order away which is already drafted and signed.

Trump is still somewhat of a blank slate and that peace plan that has started making the rounds in the media – do you think Putin is interested in lots of EU units along his land border? He must have sprayed his morning coffee all over the kitchen table when he read it and hammered his little clenched fists on the tabletop for quite a while 🤣🤣

Then Bryan Lanza was fired (before he took office) a second after he said this which was interesting.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1855259101548171669?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Then there is a rumor that Trump is ready to give Putin Crimea – that is absolutely not what Putin is interested in if you guess, he wants much more.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3lanzd2p4yk2a

Intended chief of staff who is supposed to be pro-Russian, Susie Wiles
https://x.com/alexandruc4/status/1855011230718570791?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5g7w

Then Russian state TV has aired all of Melania’s more scantily clad pictures (very scantily clad, almost without clothes 😲 – but NOT in the link below because here we have respect) at prime time with some usual Russian comments to it, which is like an elephant in a glass house. In terms of diplomacy, this is quite a big escalation from Russia’s side to go after Trump’s wife.
https://x.com/acnewsitics/status/1855445841701433395

Then Wikileaks posted a photo of the Vesuvius volcano eruption and they haven’t posted in a very long time – completely unrelated before we know what they post 😀
https://x.com/cowboyw2b2/status/1855608390157742304?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The rocket barrage before the election was completely absent from Russia but today, November 11th, 13 TU95s are in the air and strikes were feared but it seems there were none?
Send a message?
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1855840962552930493?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Then Trump is said to have called Putin already (Logan act or something…).
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1855699590646739201

Then I see one more thing, “the usual suspects” (one might suspect) who now push that Trump must have cheated since swing states got blue governors or houses, or something like that. I haven’t saved any links but it is increasing.

What one should infer from this we can probably argue about for a while longer – the only thing I don’t see with this mosaic of information is that Trump has directly come out with a proposal that is a mirror image of what Putin usually says – so much is probably clear.

Then it is probably open to interpretation, I might feel that Putin is shooting a few shots at Trump to get what he wants, and the question is how a person like Trump reacts to that. One can only hope that he doesn’t like having his wife exposed in Russian state media, for example 🤣🤣

A thought I have had is that Putin wants chaos in the USA, and if Trump gets things in order without major resistance from the Democrats and starts pursuing somewhat sensible policies, that might actually be worse than the opposite scenario where a vengeful Trump blocks everything for half a year with the help of both houses and Harris becomes completely paralyzed.

Then we have PerraG55’s hobbyhorse that the Russian bastards’ economy is in free fall, and now at least I have found a sign that indicates this – the rats are leaving the sinking ship just as PerraG55 usually says.
https://x.com/yasminalombaert/status/1854802416257921487?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

It is hard to deny that the situation is still critical at the front lines and that the West must get organized very quickly here.
Now the offensive at Kursk has started under a cloud of FAB, and we will probably know in about a month how it went.
Northern Luhansk is under heavy pressure.
And the offensive at the southern front has not yet started.

It is also hard to overestimate the enormous effect that downed FAB bombers and targeted strikes in Russia would have; it would immediately ease the pressure on Ukraine and is only a political decision away.

I now hope that Macron’s Scalp missiles that are sent will be allowed to be fired into Russia, but that is a hope 😀

13:57 – MatsExtrude

Yes, even though the Russians are taking a terrible beating, it doesn’t look too bright, and we can be quite sure that Ukraine’s losses probably also increase and decrease at roughly the same rate as the Russians’.

I really hope that Europe’s leaders do not intend to stand aside and wait for Trump, but I am a bit afraid that that will be the case. Let’s hope that Macron or someone else dares to go first.

I have myself for a long time said that we should deploy Western/NATO troops at the border with Belarus to relieve pressure. That would not be an escalation and will sooner or later become necessary if the war continues. Now it might be more natural if Poland steps in and takes that role, but best would be if it could be a larger joint effort from several countries. Then it would also be much harder for Putin to try to retaliate with hybrid warfare than if it is a single country. I honestly don’t understand why there has been such cowardice about this.

Belarus does not actively participate in the war themselves but allows the Russians to use the country. They have thus already escalated by involving them. Neutralizing them by securing the border will of course make Putin and the rest of the Russian propaganda go through the roof, but they will probably understand that no one will care. No one can be so stupid as to believe that Russia would escalate with nuclear weapons because of this. Then they might start babbling about us now having a third world war, but if so, we are already there.

(I didn’t have time, but almost thought about jokingly writing that now there has been so much nagging about Trump that one almost longed to hear you diss Biden. So I managed to include a bit of both! 😄 )

15:51 – Johan No.1

Yes, they do have it, probably battalion strength.
It is also everywhere where counterattacks are to be made.

https://x.com/ukikaski/status/1846850885239914725?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

https://x.com/d_y_m_y_z/status/1851658402742587697?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

15:58 – Johan No.1

Yes, now it has to be Trump instead when it relates to the UA war 👍

Yes, it is nice that the pro-Biden gang has completely thrown in the towel now that the election is over.

16:00 – Johan No.1

Zelensky spoke out a while ago in pure disappointment, and yes, it did not look very good for the USA’s reputation.

I suspect a calmer period now and then we have to relate to whatever Trump might come up with.

I personally hope that Putin will annoy him to the point that he gives Ukraine everything when scantily clad pictures of Ivanka are shown on Russian state TV, but I always hope for something fun.