We have now reached the strategically important and acutely critical moment for Europe’s security that I shall go on vacation – back to the Caribbean again at the end of September just in time for the hurricane season in this year’s super – El Nino.
There will probably be a few posts, but the broad reporting will be temporarily paused because I can’t handle dipping the chips while trying to write with two Mariestad long cans in the other hand.
Then we’ll be back again at full throttle, I just found out that the project is three years long so I wonder what condition one will be in after a total of five years in the Caribbean – probably unrecognizable.
Most people now agree that we are heading towards a global conflict, whether it will affect us in Europe is still an open question until it is no longer so. That decision does not lie with us but with a person who is beginning to show clear symptoms of the disease mad empire dictator.
He also leads a country where they have learned the hard way that if you don’t do as you’re told, you get a light underwear yank, tea is carefully splashed in your face, and then a mild shove out the window from at least the tenth floor. What is completely unreasonable for us is survival for that gang, you do what the madman tells you to do because it saves lives – not others’ but your own since what you are supposed to do is often to take lives.
That is why we have closely marked the Baltics in the posts, as it would draw us geographically into the war instead of the arena being MENA or Asia. That does not make it any less urgent that Russia has prepared for this and is now completely ready with those preparations to the point that they have built gravel ramps down from the riverbanks on their side of the Narva River. This is done so that amphibious vehicles intended to cross the river into Estonia do not get stuck in the soft riverbank already on their own side, so we can only hope that the Estonians have softened the ground well on their side of the river and reservoirs.
We have, in rounds, suggested that the best outcome for us would be if Russia collapses internally, Belarus gains its freedom, Kaliningrad is demilitarized, and the USA gets its war with China where we contribute with capability but at the level of an expeditionary violent punitive expedition, and the conflict zone disappears in Asia.
Selfish and insensitive – absolutely 100%, but I no longer believe that a global conflict can be completely avoided, the next best for us is that it is not fought geographically in Europe unlike all other global conflicts behind us. We are also not the ones starting any wars here, perhaps you have noticed, we want trade and peace but do not get it because other heads of state have gone too far.
The pressure is building and the wrong people have taken over the helm in too many countries already. Xi Jinping just kicked out several officers from the defense leadership (again) so what is he not getting through is probably a question to start asking quietly. The pseudo-discussion that will probably now be held is whether we are at war, if it is a global conflict and all that. I am of the opinion that we crashed into full hybrid war at rocket speed this summer and possibly we will enter a twilight state going forward if the short-statured madman does not calm down. Ask any Iranian or Ukrainian, it is war, or Wildberries employees are also good to ask where they stand soot-faced looking out over the total write-off of Russia’s Amazon.
Worth noting is that the time period between twilight state and full war can be a few days at worst so it is important not to get stuck in the pseudo-discussion for too long – the best is naturally to prepare for war already today.
A good second option is to unleash Ukraine over the Baltic Sea already now so it becomes the new Black Sea.
Never forget that Putin can end his prolonged torment already tomorrow simply by leaving Ukraine, that sometimes gets lost in the discussion. Apparently, according to the always credible Twitter bots, he has said that if he does not win anything he will lose his head, now it matters less whether the bot was in Indonesia or China because that statement is based in truth anyway – his own little fragile life is at stake here. In Russia, one only bows to strength and Putin does what he can to polish that image of himself. If he has to choose between genocide or his life, he chooses life every day of the week.
There may still be a chance to draw the longest straw, the world’s arms factories are red-hot and people have gotten used to reading war in red on the headlines. If Russia suffers an absolute crushing defeat enough to make China worried, they will crawl back into their den and the world can have peace. But it requires that some country is dragged into the street dust for this and so far it can only be Russia. For a long time, this was relatively easily achievable but I hope that if Russia is thrown into internal conflict it might deter others. A good start is probably to unleash Ukraine over the Baltic Sea as said because that would make it significantly harder for Putin to escalate against us.
Then it would be good if we and Ukraine keep an eye on Russian movements from the northern front up towards the Baltics. Europe cannot/will not/wants not/dares not (just pick) strike the easy target preventively on the road before they spread out in the starting grouping in the terrain but if we ask Ukraine for help and give them everything they point to maybe they can solve it for us. Two army corps knocked out on the road would make Putin weak in the country’s eyes – good good.
We have had a violent campaign for paid subscription to my Substack during spring and summer which has led to a few paying subscribers – big thanks to those of you who managed the emotional storm to press the dark yellow button and win eternal peace.
I hope those of you who subscribe can manage a few weeks of semi-silence with the knowledge that it will be full throttle again this fall in the afterburner – like a Coca-Cola bottle with dropped Mentos roughly, don’t give up.
Those of you who read the posts regularly but have not yet dared to take this life-changing step will during the fall get the chance to enter a paid subscription that changes your lives for the better. If it is a gray autumn day with whipping rain from the side and a grumpy boss nagging about deadlines, all this heavy stuff disappears with just a feather-light button press. Then it becomes like a midsummer beautiful morning mist with light harp music in the background flanked by two blue-yellow little lemurs wrapped in a blue-yellow flag (that is, first painted in blue-yellow and then wrapped like mummies with cut-out holes for arms and legs so they can still run around).
We started writing in 2022 and if you want, you can go to Cornucopia and read the comments from the first week after the war started when the media wrote about “Kiev falling in three days,” that works fine. I was dissatisfied with the Russian airborne landing, felt cheated, and wanted my money back.
We are ahead of the curve and I tend to get stuck on something I push for way too long. Sent a few posts to the media but it’s just like with the Baltics, too far ahead so at best you get a laugh-cry reaction and then when it’s obvious, analysts flood out of the walls in a deluge after a quick recalibration and slide straight onto the editorial page. Now it seems every pundit has known since the birth of Jesus that the Baltics have always been the next target, for example. If you want peace, you prepare for war, and that preparation has a long runway. You don’t start thinking about preparations when the opponent only needs to degrease the gun barrels already pointed straight at your refineries.
Now we have broadened the reporting to global conflict and will continue – after long nagging since autumn 2025 about the Baltics, we reached the point where it became mainstream paired with what seems to be our correct assessment that Europe does not intend to defend the area north of the Daugava River in the way our agreements promised the Baltics. The discrepancy we picked up on about a year ago.
Does this have any news value – absolutely not.
But it’s always fun when suspicions and putting the puzzle together turn out to have substance in a situation where the puzzle pieces are still few. The feeling of the last piece in a big puzzle is always satisfying, bought a big Christmas puzzle a few years ago and was completely hooked, sitting and fiddling with it all Christmas.
I have the highest possible unreserved respect for Ukraine – they are dying for us even if that may not be the original purpose of their effort. It’s young, old, women and men lying in trenches for months on end with daily danger to their lives. What we have; family, job, salary, savings, career, further education (a work course a year), kids playing football, helping with homework, Friday cozy time with the wife – all that they have had to put on hold to lie soaking wet in a trench and risk their lives. The family at home lives in ongoing trauma and doesn’t know how they will make it through the month, and there’s nothing you can do where you lie in your trench.
No matter how many layers you peel away, you can’t escape the fact that they stand between us and a war where we and our children will lie in trenches in the Baltics cursing our misfortune if Ukraine falters. It is incomprehensible how arrogant Europe has been since 2022, incomprehensible on all levels.
A violent global conflict doesn’t come every ten years either, so we are in our generation’s great whirlpool which we can do nothing about. But we can choose what we do and I think actively following this is the least one can do for oneself until the effort necessarily needs to be increased, if we get there.
The amount of useless knowledge I have acquired just by sitting and reading raw data and doing my own analyses is enormous. If you rely on pre-packaged, pre-analyzed, and tailored information, you buy a ready-made package with an angle – always an angle.
“But then we get your angle” you scream now – yes, maybe you do but it is indisputably the best.
Especially the USA has been exciting to follow as one grew up with a clear image that is now torn apart, soaked, and finally scrubbed against a dull rasp to remove the last tribute text to them on the chalkboard. Then of course they will do a complete turnaround, save the world even those who don’t want to be saved, and release movies about it on Netflix for 40 years where everyone else was amateurs.
In 1917, the Germans were not worried at all about the USA, which had a defense force of 130,000 and barely any weapons. After that, 25,000 Americans per week flooded into France up to a total of 2 million well-armed and eager to fight. Then the German emperor abdicated, the war was lost and the empire fell – you should not underestimate the USA was the free lesson of the day.
Doing your own analyses teaches you a lot and we all start with some starting point that must get so many cracks in it that you reluctantly change your position – but it must be based on facts, not propaganda or ideology.
Here we first chase the damn rooster, pick it to then grill it slowly over a welding flame so we get the best chicken burger you can get for money. The bread is a month-long sourdough with crispy seeds sprinkled on top by two little lemurs in white silk gloves, one little seed at a time. Those two are unpainted.
I never cease to be amazed at how indifferent people are to all this suffering, war in our time is one bad decision from Putin away from landing in our own laps – and on a good day he is just incredibly unstable.
Have thought a lot about the Danes sitting where they sit in eastern Baltics and spelling their way through the defense plan in the BILD article with their school German.
I completely got tired of the election because the mudslinging is monumental from all eight. Had a “big election thread” going which is more of a deep dive into history with lots of exciting anecdotes from the last thousand years but lost the drive, will see if I find the motivation.
The parliamentary election was easy, without L over the parliamentary threshold no Tidö law. I think the last four years have been better than the previous 16 years with the Alliance and then S, so why try to change something that works.
My municipality is excellently managed term after term because they focus on delivering service to the citizens they have as neighbors and traditions are carved in stone here. When the local lunch restaurant has potato pancakes with lingonberry jam and bacon on Tuesdays, lunch guests travel up to an hour for their plate. You know where the police force is at lunchtime on Tuesdays at least, and judging by the portion sizes they probably don’t get much done the rest of the shift so a good time window to commit serious crimes for those of you thinking about extra income. The politicians always cooperate in a whole bunch of parties in some coalition, and if you pursue bad politics the neighbors immediately start glaring sourly at you – that’s exactly how it should be with a constantly swinging Damocles sword of spiteful Jante Law neighbors who are just happy it’s Tuesday lunch.
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Bacon instead of cured pork belly? No, then it has to be. 🥓
+1 Potato pancake with fried pork. 😉
Agree with Umlaut. Bacon can never replace cured pork belly! But thanks for the post Johan no 1 and have a nice day
Umlaut is right. Bacon cannot replace cured pork belly.
But thanks for the post Johan no 1 and have a nice vacation. Must be nice to leave it behind.
Umlaut is right. Bacon cannot replace cured pork belly.
But thanks for the post Johan no 1 and have a nice vacation. It must be nice to leave this humid, warm, and windy Caribbean even if it’s only for a few weeks.
I think so
Have a nice vacation Johan no 1 and thanks for the post.
It will be interesting to follow what the Russians plan to do regarding the boarding of the Russian ship in Svalbard. Sister ship to the navy’s depot ship “Trossö”.
Do they dare to attempt a rescue operation or will it, as usual, be just verbal threats?
But Umlaut is right.
Thank you for the post, Johan no 1 and have a nice vacation 👍👍👍
Exciting days ahead of us. How will the Russians act regarding the ship that the Norwegians seized? Will it be threats or action?
Umlaut is right. Potato pancakes should be served with cured pork.
Worth reading post as always Johan.
I agree with Proxima’s holiday greetings.
Chuck Pfarrer does not believe that the Russian devils will attack Estonia but also has the good taste to point out at the same time that he was wrong in 2022 when he also did not believe that there would be an invasion of Ukraine.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/41yXldpVmNKW69aktL2t7B?si=4Gh2WMkqQjqbV4pNd38W1A&utm_source=copy-link
The Russian bastards accuse Norway of “piracy” after the Russian ship “Professor Molchanov” was seized off Svalbard. This is reported by the Russian news agency Tass according to NRK.
The ship has now docked in Barentsburg where it will remain for the time being. On board are about 50 passengers and crew members, including correspondents for Tass.
– We will be of great help in getting the crew and passengers home to Russia, says Governor Lars Fause to NRK.
The request came from a Ukrainian energy company.
Russia’s foreign policy spokesperson Maria Zakharova states that they will not “abandon their citizens” after the seizure, writes Dagbladet.
https://omni.se/a/XMJopb
If you take a boat, you are a pirate; if you take a country, you are?
ryzdj…r
” Estonia’s Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur resigns after a failed ammunition deal was uncovered, reports the country’s public service company ERR.
On Wednesday, it emerged that the state Estonian authority RKIK had paid 70 million euros in advance for artillery shells intended for Ukraine – but they were never delivered.
Despite this, a new agreement was made with the Italian company that had never produced artillery shells before. When the shells were finally delivered, they were unusable.
Pevkur does not consider himself personally responsible for the deal and says he did not read the contract.
– The Defense Minister makes the fundamental decision to support Ukraine. The preparatory work before contract negotiations and the work of finding contract partners is RKIK’s responsibility, he says.”
https://omni.se/a/pBXGxX
Did you see that Sanchez used tear gas and batons in Spain against the demonstrators for Ceuta?
Violent scenes.
The same law enforcement he chose not to use against those who entered Ceuta.
He will be out this autumn, the whole country is against him now.
How one can actively choose this is still incomprehensible to me but the same is happening in Ireland.
Good, however, that the citizens say stop when it goes too far.
That ship in Svalbard is almost giving Russia a casus belli, isn’t it?
So the question is whether this is a deliberate provocation or not?
I’m always up for overwhelming force, but if Norway isn’t ready to take the fight, it will be a bit anticlimactic 😀
Came so suddenly and in another place, so I haven’t kept up.
Borga handles the communication carefully.
The big question, of course, is what the Russian bastards will do in response?
“The seized vessel ‘Professor Molchanov’ near Svalbard is a legal matter between the Ukrainian energy company Naftogaz and Russia. This is what senior advisor Frank Lynum at the Norwegian Ministry of Justice told NRK.
Russia accused Norway of ‘piracy’ after the operation.
– Norway is not a party to the case, says Lynum.
He says that the seizure was made following a request from the energy company where the district court acted as bailiff. However, Russia can request the court in Norway to review the case, something they have done in a similar matter, according to Lynum.”
https://omni.se/a/XMJ4aW
What did I say. But this has decreased in likelihood. Maybe that’s why Norway is sticking its neck out.
Yes, thank you very much 😀
Pretty sure it’s pork belly, larger pieces so a typo, no physical demonstration needed at the restaurant 😀👍
Guess I’ll have to rent a mini excavator from Ramirent and restore the cobblestones.
😂
DAMN, how the UA is roaring now 😳
Then sabotage all over Russia on top of that.
A broader ground offensive and Putin might be on shaky ground, that’s happening if we listen to Drapatyi.
The two paths – the UA war and escalation against us where the UA war is going great.
It will be an interesting autumn anyway.
Large sabotage campaign against Germany. Something every day now.
According to earlier discussion in the thread, the German regime is secure for a while longer, which is good.
Saw that Norway and the USA have moved reconnaissance aircraft and strike packages up to northern Norway so maybe we are grazing ru?
Thank you for another worthwhile post, and I hope you have a wonderful vacation with your family.
We really are living in unnecessarily exciting times. Svalbard with the Russian ship, the Danes who clearly and openly comment on the situation with various types of Russian influence operations and sabotage against everything related to defense.
In Germany, it’s probably not calm anywhere.
In Sweden, we are getting nowhere with the construction of all the new regiments that were decided around 2020 because everything is being appealed left and right by all sorts of people for all kinds of possible and impossible reasons. Also, the process is not being handled smartly (Johan, maybe a side job as a consultant). Only a couple are underway, everything else seems to be delayed until after 2030 or even longer.
I don’t usually comment on what is written on the other blog, but today it has gone completely bananas in domestic politics.
If anyone here has the possibility to ask Perrag55 to write here instead, I would be grateful. I appreciate his insights a lot.
That Perra would be kicked out of that blog is quite a surprise. I hope he comes here, he possesses a lot of knowledge about Russia.
What? Is Perra55 kicked out?!
+1 it totally got out of hand. Yes, exactly. Have read everyone’s national poet JohanNo1 since the own platforms were launched and before that the yellow walls on the other blog. But registered here only today. That said, big thanks Johan No1 for your texts and analyses. A breadth and depth that everyone else misses. Thank you!
Agree.
Total breakdown today. Almost a bit dictatorial on the other blog regarding not being allowed to have opinions other than those that fit.
+1 not beautiful at all.
…A textbook example of the ancient wisdom that no capital burns as quickly as trust capital…
Apparently, he was let in again. I think many asked for him to be allowed back.
Is there anyone who can explain why he was thrown out?
Ah, ok, it was perceived as SD support that it fell on. It was visible in the thread. PerraG came back in again.
Yes, today the blogger on the other blog has had a complete mental breakdown, again. PerraG55 was suspended and there are probably many there now who are wondering about Ben Dover’s conflict-seeking and strange misinterpretations. Take a toy and calm down, someone wrote there, which is something one can definitely agree with. Hope Perra finds their way here.
Hasn’t followed at all since this page appeared and the SD-Tourette really kicked in. Has LW presented any visitor statistics lately? Is there a small dip in the curve?
Same here. Got blocked on Twitter by the author because I expressed support for MED, and since then it hasn’t been interesting.
The blogger on the other blog has become completely blinded by his hatred of SD. Everything he doesn’t like is SD’s fault. From athlete’s foot, dandruff to bad breath. He seems to have serious mental problems.
He is ruining his own blog.
He obviously needs care.
I really hope that PERRAG55 writes here so EVERYONE can benefit from his invaluable knowledge.
Ok then I have to check.
Otherwise, I try to avoid it, which is unfortunate.
As usual among those muppets including the blogger who is an unusually touchy individual.
If you make a claim and present evidence, it’s Whataboutism!
Why does anyone read that blog? It’s a club for mutual jerking off admiration!
According to the universal genius whose omniscience rules autocratically on the other blog, an attempt to explain, nuance, and defend oneself is simply an expression that one is not only cheeky, but also guilty, and one is then labeled with the tags domination technique and whataboutism and banished from the almighty blogger’s realm at lightning speed…..
Bend Over was LW
Well… It’s more like LW suffers from multiple-personality aliases where BenDover was one of several aliases.
Now it is so that more and more people suffer solely from LW’s personality rather than his aliases….
“Professor Molchanov” was originally a research vessel. Built in Turku in 1984. Since it is ice-classed, it is well suited for cruises in the Arctic.
Several sister ships were built, all in Finland. One of them was transferred to Estonia in the early 90s and was named “Livonia”. FMV bought her
and she was rebuilt in Falkenberg into the depot ship “Trossö”. Still in service in the navy.
There will probably be a dip in the visitor curve from now on on the other blog. Never before have I seen so many people saying that they are signing off.
I thought I had travel chaos but on the other blog there was certainly full speed today as you wrote, chaos 😳😳
Thanks for the kind words above 👍👍
No one is blocked here as long as you vote for Mona, MXT has promised that. You can vote for him and his “advancement party” which also exists locally – then you don’t need a password when you log in here, that is the only point in his election program.
I have been kicked out of quite a few forums because I am not in favor of genocide against Jews (nor against anyone else, but you can’t say that openly). It is an incredibly controversial stance. But I suppose you are allowed to have that opinion here.
Sounds like a perfectly reasonable opinion. The pro-Palestinian left probably does not agree with you.
The pallet left is in a firm FSB grip.
Good that you stand up against antisemitism. 👍
Never again was just a slogan, it turned out. 😢
Yes, now even the most knowledgeable and nuanced writers on the other blog have both been banned, forgiven…. but I think more and more people have started to realize what arbitrariness rules in there…
It was actually a writer in there who suggested that PerraG should move in here instead.
Our good reputation is spreading slowly.
Banned and forgiven, is it comparable to being thrown out of a window and then caught by a sailcloth and “forgiven” by the tsar?
Should one be loyal after that?
He is more than welcome
Had to go in and check. Can say that there are now two urging perrag to move.
PerraG is warmly welcome if he wants to.
Finally, I got a little time to check in here, but it seems like things are happening on the other blog. 😄
Good post Johan, have a great vacation. Although I didn’t quite understand if you were going to start it now and come back at the end of September, or if you started then?
I have had a layover in Madrid 😳
Ah. I still have Madrid left to visit, but then I of course want to stay longer than just a layover.
Have a wonderful vacation!
Did you see that I pitched your party MXT, maybe there will be more than two votes this election 👍
After all, it has been established for 33 years now.
So, I have always found it difficult to understand that in order to save democracy, you shut down everyone who disagrees.
Here it works well, no blockade for two years as far as I know?
Always fun when more people come here to the light and joy
I have not blocked a single one. Then WordFence blocks intrusion attempts and bots trying to register, but that is a completely different matter and has nothing to do with what one votes for.
Nice to avoid the witch hunt where people tend to misinterpret honest folks who might not manage to express themselves once in a hundred times. Then it might be worth blocking people who litter a blog. I mean those who manage to reply to their own post five times before anyone else even has time to read it.
It feels a bit like it’s in the direction of the times that Sweden will become as polarized as the USA when people are so sensitive about someone being a Sweden Democrat or a Left Party member (Green Party members are of course totally okay to piss on). It’s like there’s no backbone in people who get so excited about joining the mobs.