Do not go on vacation to Iran, February 19, 2026

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I lost the entire post about Iran but rewrote it when I stopped sulking, hence the echoing silence in your social media. For those of you who haven’t closed your accounts yet, the rewritten post will be below fortunately.

It seems like an all-out robot and air attack on Iran is getting closer?

It doesn’t seem like the assassination attempt on Khomeini was successful – Hegseth was all worked up on Twitter but seems to have lost interest.

It also went quiet after all the explosions last week – the regime still seems to have the situation reasonably under control after further massacres of citizens.

The goal of the operation should be to shake up the regime enough so that the citizens, as well as Israeli and US SOF, can break its back.

USA: they have painted themselves into a corner, if they back down now after the mullahs’ threats, they will look weak and have a petrodollar and national debt to defend.

Iran: they don’t seem like the guys who would sacrifice the country for a grand finale, and their families have already emigrated.

Israel: they seem to want to topple the regime in Iran if we go by how they have acted since 2023. I guess they have been instrumental in this.

Russia: being kept in check by the USA through the Ukraine war, Putin recently got burned with Starlink and he has something diabolical of his own in the works since Telegram has been shut down in Russia – I will come back to that.

China: they probably want to test US resolve, their own diplomatic weight, and the various technology platforms, preferably by having only Iran target American objectives.

In recent days, Iran’s leadership has been mocking and taunting the USA through all the channels they have, which they only do if they are prepared for a fight – “nerd-Trump can try that fatso, but all that will happen is that all his little dorky boats will sink and he’ll get diabetes.”

China has had an active airlift to Iran for months, and we can probably guess what has been delivered: LV, radar, drones, and robots.

The Iranian pilots haven’t had time to train on cutting-edge aircraft, and ground capabilities are not critical at all.

Whether the platforms are manned by Chinese personnel or not, I don’t know, but we can assume there are Chinese liaison officers in the country.

It might even be that China has built a digital battlefield for Iran that they are manning?

Satellite data will definitely be needed in defense, and China is likely to provide that.

China has a fleet in the area with state-of-the-art destroyers and EW platforms, and an upcoming exercise.

The USA has 1/3 of its fleet in the area, and much more than during the Gulf Wars.

There is a slight suspicion that the USA is setting up a Pearl Harbor as the fleet could have been in the Mediterranean instead, targets in eastern Iran could have been hit from submarines located in the Arabian Sea southeast of Iran.

What will happen?

China and the USA will unleash all their EW weapons at full effect, and the defensive platforms that have barely been tested by Skunkworks yet but have been smuggled on board.

Both will discover how their EW weapons work, and how their own weapons function under the opponent’s EW influence in a real scenario.

Everyone will scream that it’s for close protection/threat to their own lives/self-defense.

In Venezuela, for example, the USA used an EMP and then some sound weapon for ground combat that pacified the opponents, but here we are talking about the whole range of secret capabilities at a much higher level since the stakes are sky-high, not just a SEAL team that can be lost.

The Iranian regime will probably try to launch as much as they can towards Israel, and since Iron Dome faltered considerably last time, it is likely to result in spectacular hits and a lot of death – the rules of war and Israel are at war with Iran.

The Iranian regime and the Houthis in Yemen will do their utmost to sink a larger US ship, preferably an aircraft carrier.

I think China is there to test things out – if they lose all their ships in the area in an epic blast, they have the option to back off, start buying US government debt again, and close the BRIICS office. Maybe a few hanged generals and a couple of billion for Trump will also be needed?

If their technology turns out to be as good as they claim and American sailors are floating in the Arabian Sea, the rules of the game are updated in one fell swoop, and Taiwan will need to go into crisis mode pronto.

Russia will fire verbal atomic bombs, but it has already been agreed with the USA that it will stop there. The USA-Russia relationship is fundamentally different from the USA-China one, we can probably confirm that even though my suspicion earlier was that the USA-China might also be playing a double game. I think we have enough information now to establish that.

What will the USA do?

If they get a Pearl Harbor, we know what they will do, Lex Pearl Harbor.

If they get the best outcome, they will be spurred to go even further in the future with the focus on China, why be generous to a country that has made it its mission to dethrone the USA by any means necessary.

What will the outcome be then?

The best-case scenario is that the Iranian regime falls, no ships are sunk, and everyone leaves after some posturing and verbal threats.

The worst-case scenario is that we have reached the point where no sitting head of state can control this situation that takes on a life of its own when a stressed ship commander’s hoarse orders are misunderstood by the fire control team who presses the red button and escalation towards full-scale war begins.

I consider it high risk that the USA, China, and Russia are all in the waters off Iran at the same time while Iran is being tackled on a magnitude much larger than Saddam in an attempt to overthrow the regime. This means the regime has nothing to lose.

Hezbollah has already called and informed (mostly in tears) what the thanks were for not participating on October 7, 2023, so Khomeini already knows how it will go if they try to be low-effective.

So, that was the short version, and I lied when I said I wasn’t sulking anymore, writing in a lot of open Word documents that I save, but sometimes when you have a new one, it hasn’t saved before the computer restarts or behaves like MXT servers in between.

We are probably so close to a war without already being in a war that we will reach by 2026, with the exception of a possible operation in the Baltics as well, and maybe Taiwan.

Will the Hormuz Strait remain open – no.

Will the financial markets react strongly – yes.

At the risk of sounding callous – for Europe, this operation or potential US-China war is not high risk in the same way as Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

It will probably result in us providing air and naval support to the USA and eventually Australia becoming one big military base (why the country isn’t already is incomprehensible to me!) but we will avoid general mobilization and burning cities.

Assuming we keep the damn Russians in check and they have something shady going on right now.

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36 thoughts on “Do not go on vacation to Iran, February 19, 2026”

  1. MXT

    Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-02-19

    • 830 KIA
    • 1 Tank
    • 3 AFVs
    • 21 Artillery systems
    • 1 MLRS
    • 406 UAVs
    • 117 Vehicles and Fuel tanks

    SLAVA UKRAINI

  3. 205

    It’s a shame that Hegseth’s tweet disappeared. Could your computer have been infected by MXT’s servers when you were connected to them?

    Here it is:

    A: “Russia will fire verbal atomic bombs but it is already settled with the USA that it will stop there. The relationship between the USA and Russia is fundamentally different from the USA-China, we can probably establish even though my suspicion earlier was that the USA-China might also be playing a double game. I think we have so much information now that we can establish that.”

    However, if that is not the case, the following does not pose any obstacle:

    B: “At the risk of sounding cold-blooded – for Europe, it is not high risk with this operation or potential war USA-China in the same way as Russia’s ravages in Ukraine.”,

    or further this:
    B. “It would probably result in us providing air and navy to the USA and Australia eventually becoming one large military base (why the country is not that today is incomprehensible to me!) but that we avoid general mobilization and burning cities.
    Provided we keep the Russian bastards in check”

    The first (A) is rather in contrast to the latter (B). So, there is no confrontation between the USA and RU. Could what we see with the USA’s reluctance to not more actively support Ukraine have to do with (B)? The USA almost at any cost does not want to pay a cent, but chooses unequivocally and stubbornly to pass on all costs of support to Ukraine to Europe. If one reads your post about the Iran operation in its entirety and includes (B) – that Europe escapes all responsibility militarily and economically for this military operation, which I wonder if it is not on the scale of the “Russian special operation” (or larger?), I wonder if it is not only about a confrontation between Europe and the USA, but a hint of a confrontation between the USA and Russia, as you suggest (in A).

    I write USA because it cannot be an idiot like Trump who has concocted this setup on his own. The setup is probably in line with what other American presidents would find to be a viable path.

    1. 205

      Additional: it may just stay at the verbal from Russia’s side. But that probably depends more on realities such as Russia’s military capability barely staying above the surface than on having settled with Uasaa. The same can probably be said about Syria 2024, Azerbaijan 2024, Iran 2025, and Venezuela 2025. In any case, Russia has not received anything concrete in return for all these “sacrifices”. Not even a little Starlink.

    2. johan No.1

      Of course it’s the USA and not some whim from Trump.

      We’ll just have to wait and see, things will become much clearer in the coming months.

  4. 205

    Sharp rise in Huliaipole. Also up the unlocalized attacks with a Ukrainian attack for every two Russian ones.

    Sum sectors 158↗️🇷🇺
    Unlocalized 78↗️🇺🇦
    Total 237↗️

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 2
    S Slobozhansky 4
    Kupyansk 2
    Lyman 8
    Slovyansk 8
    Kramatorsk 7↗️
    Kostjantynivka 22💥↗️
    Pokrovsk 42💥💥↗️
    Oleksandrivskij 10💥↗️
    Huliaipole 49💥💥💥↗️
    Orikhivsk 4↗️
    Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 0↘️

  5. MXT

    “❗️The EU, as part of the agreement on Ukraine, wants to demand the withdrawal of Russian troops from Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, and Moldova (Transnistria) – Radio Liberty.

    /In addition, the EU insists on the payment of reparations, demilitarization of the occupied territories of Ukraine, renunciation of their de jure recognition, and the cessation of Moscow’s hybrid attacks against Europe.”

      1. CB500four

        Has any European leader dared to tell Russia what we demand?

        I don’t think Russia cares about what we say as long as they are not convinced that we can back up our demands with violence, or economic sanctions that bite, like stopping the shadow fleet.

        Now would actually be a good time to stop the shadow fleet, if no one dares to say that it’s because Russia behaves like a Russian, we can blame the risk of oil spills due to the ice. All single-hull vessels should at least be banned.

      1. 205

        “On November 15 last year, a powerful explosion occurred at the oil refinery in Ryazan, where fuel for the Russian Air Force is produced. A few weeks later, a fire broke out at the refinery in Kapotnya, near Russia’s capital Moscow.

        These events are examples of Ukrainian attacks carried out hundreds of kilometers into Russian territory using balloons, according to Ukrainian military sources speaking to Wall Street Journal.“

        https://www.dn.se/varlden/ukrainska-ballonger-slar-mot-mal-djupt-inne-i-ryssland-okonventionellt/

  8. Proxima

    MXT can take a weekend walk to Finland, I see on today’s updated ice map. But stay north of Åland! Outside Kaliningrad, the ice is thick. So now Russia only has two naval bases left in good condition. Of course, they have icebreaking tugboats, but it’s still a bit cumbersome.

  9. 205

    Russian transport ship SPARTA IV just spent 2+ days maneuvering above some of the world’s key communications cables off the coast of Portugal.

    Cables include EUAFRICA E1, ACE, SEA-ME-WE 3 + TAGIDE and another.

    – verified

  12. MXT

    Sweden unveiled a new military package worth $1.42 billion as part of a larger 2026 support program totaling roughly $4.4 billion for Ukraine. The package’s centerpiece is the procurement of new short-range air defense systems valued at around $470 million.

    1. Proxima

      Interesting from the Officer Magazine. Apparently good stuff. If you google “Sinbaba.se”. I am terribly bad at computers so I can’t even manage to link. Excuse me but the interest has been lacking. But there you can read about the troubles the US Navy has in getting new warships. Feel free to google “the future destroyer USS Zumwalt” which turned out to be a flop. 32 were supposed to be built. 3 were built.

  15. CB500four

    Now I managed to get logged out again while I was writing.

    Well, the content was briefly that if China doesn’t interfere, or if Chinese weapons don’t prove to be effective in sinking aircraft carriers, I don’t think the likely war in Iran will be prolonged.

    This is because the mullahs do not hold as tight a grip as Saddam. If they bomb the Revolutionary Guard, the turbo elves will flee to Russia as soon as possible, and if Trump refrains from invading, even the Iranian people may thank him.

    Much depends on how dependent China is on Iran’s oil, and how good their weapons prove to be.

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