Part two of this week’s post reflects on the global conflict and what we can expect. We have two parallel boosters firing off simultaneously – Ukraine is on its way to beating Russia in a fair war, and the other is a global escalation that the US is also demonstrably involved in.
Russia is firmly stuck in the quagmire in Ukraine with no obvious way out; the best they can hope for is that the fronts don’t collapse too quickly, really.
In Russia, several public figures and military bloggers have now begun openly criticizing the war – you do NOTHING in Russia without backing, so some group is starting to catch a whiff of fresh air. That’s what we’ve learned after four years of Russian school.
Putin intends to counter this by escalating into Europe, and he has Trump with him on that move.
Before that, he will be humiliated on May 9, where now a total of 3-4 countries have registered participation compared to 30 last year, and they are pulling together all the LV they can find from all over Russia into Moscow. It would be fun if Ukraine targeted all undefended targets out in the country on May 9 instead.
Which booster will be first is the one that gets there first, but Ukraine cannot be expected to take any kind of global responsibility and adjust this year’s military operations according to what Putin intends to do in the Baltics, so they are pushing at the pace they can manage – who gets there first is probably still an open race.
Since you have followed this site daily for four years, you know that Putin will end his days dangling by the feet from a gas station, deep-marinated in gasoline, and really hoping the mob has Russian cigarette lighters that don’t work.
What Putin probably thinks is to survive politically by opening a conflict front in the Baltics – above all, Russia can only do one thing: when the level of violence is not enough, they increase the level of violence.
In Ukraine, they get the same dose of violence back as a backlash, so then it’s no longer fun – new victims are needed who are not as feisty.
The day the fronts collapse in Ukraine, Putin’s days are probably numbered unless there is something else to cling to, like some kind of half-invented conflict with us.
It is statistically certain that the US and Russia have agreed on a whole chain of escalations without Europe being involved at all in the discussions – Venezuela, Syria, Cuba, Ukraine, and probably also against us in Europe but also Svalbard and maybe Cyprus?
Trump on the phone, Vance and Trump’s sons visited Bosnia and Hungary, they have openly supported Fico in Slovakia, and I recall Bulgaria being mentioned – the problem for them is that when they show up, their pals immediately lose the election. The worst was with the pope who died just days after JD Vance visited him.
Even though the US seems (we don’t know for sure yet) to have the edge aimed at China, they absolutely do not want a roaring strong Europe that gets a petro-euro; we are probably a bigger threat to the US in that regard than China actually is.
The signs are everywhere – already in autumn 2025 in the posts about Operation Baltics, we described how RU had set up a strategic offensive reserve they began hiding at the border with the Baltic states.
Newly produced materiel is not reaching Ukraine, a new military district is being formed, conscription and recruitment to newly established divisions and some army corps are taking place where training is provided by veterans from the Ukraine war.
New depots are being built in the Pskov area where, however, Ukraine has droned those depots at least three times in 2026; they are probably helping the Baltics as best they can.
Camouflage nets over the train station in Pskov, and in 2025 it was mainly artillery units transported through the city but did not show up in Ukraine.
A trick they used during the Cold War was to hide all offensive materiel in barns and camouflaged depots near the border with free Europe so we wouldn’t get the warning we expected on a clear buildup – maybe something like that is being tried?
The level of sabotage against Europe is enormous, but there are also direct war preparations where RU has scouted road bridges, railway tracks, junctions, and other targets that would prevent our movements toward the conflict area.
That Russia is preparing for a conflict with the Baltics is beyond all doubt, and they have been actively doing so for over two years now.
Recently, Musk cut Starlink in RU and we cheered, but it was at RU’s request as they quickly cut their Telegram as well – units in Ukraine were left high and dry where UA carried out a lightning offensive in several places, so something was more important for Putin than the Ukraine war where he deliberately threw his own under the bus.
Mobilization is something many have settled on – not unreasonable at all.
Recently, Belarus has mobilized reservists, increased training, and Lukashenko has announced that they are preparing for war.
Since 2023, Belarus has had the privilege of having its defense forces trained by Wagner veterans but has also built up a drone weapon modeled after the Russian one. Europe needs a few more decades to be able to form requests to start thinking about that, so we are a bit behind.
Ukraine does not like Belarus building firing positions against their land border – my guess is that Belarus is building a defense against Ukraine so that Ukraine cannot strike the flank to help the Baltics.
Zelensky has recently ONCE AGAIN warned that a battle plan for conflict in the Baltics is on Putin’s desk for approval.
Trump has on several occasions done the following –
-Confirmed that the US will not help if Russia attacks the Baltics.
-Delayed already paid weapons deliveries mainly to the Baltics, Poland, and Germany but also other countries in Europe.
-Given orders to start pulling troops out of Eastern Europe.
Finland has recently begun increasing readiness at the eastern border, and in the coming months we will hear more and more from leaders in Europe.
Now Russia is not complete idiots because they have royally burned themselves in Ukraine –
The threat Russia has now built up is the following –
The shadow fleet with drone cassettes that can carry out a first strike against targets in Europe, and Europe knows this very well. They lie like a string of pearls along our coasts from Greece to Estonia. Europe has all high-value materiel at a few bases, about a dozen air bases for example, and large central depots for missiles, fuel, and ammunition.
Presumably, RU has now also planted explosives on all sea internet and power transmission cables around Europe; most recently, GUGI was stationed for a month outside the UK, so the transatlantic cables as well.
GUGI are specialists in destruction; that is the only thing they do, never build anything, only destroy.
When the Iran war started, I was surprised and asked why terrorist attacks and demonstrations hadn’t started properly – then they did, I think, after reading my posts.
Russia also has a large number of groups available to create chaos on the streets – left, right, Islamists, gangs, criminal clans, and also groups passionate about various issues that have been infiltrated over time, even if some have a very hard time understanding it.
That RU did not attack our energy infrastructure in the winter of 2026 surprised me, but what they actually did was to practice attacks on all kinds of targets – this has now started to emerge even in Sweden.
Why do you think they rehearse, for example, opening all the dam gates to the hydropower wide open one day in late autumn?
Then you have the public figures, influencers and others who promote Russia’s cause. Quite a few of those who lead the debate have been burned, but there is a cadre of politicians in Europe who are bought and will be activated at the right moment to overturn votes.
The wife receives a few million per year in her newly started limited company to sit on WhatsApp in an empty meeting room in a legitimate (Russian-controlled) company that buys the wife’s consulting services in exchange for you doing a favor at the right time – that’s how it works and the Tax Agency doesn’t care since they get tax on earned money, no one else seems to care either so my question is if anyone has the right contacts so one can get this deal too?
When the conflict finally comes, all countries in Europe must vote to sacrifice our sons’ and daughters’ lives, which is already a sky-high level of fear for our politicians who preferably just want press conferences about new benefits for their own voter groups.
If the vote is close, those bought politicians can overturn the decisions – everyone can breathe a sigh of relief that democracy won so no difficult decisions had to be made this time either. Then we wish the Baltics good luck and remind them of the Baltic extradition, so don’t even try again, you democracy destroyers.
What is a realistic level of conflict against Europe and why?
There are probably three arms to that hydra –
The USA wants a weak, divided and worried Europe that buys security from them at five times the market price just like during the Cold War when the USA had its best years ever.
Soon it will be too late as Europe slowly starts to get organized, four years too late. On one level, one understands why World War II just became a run-over Europe with wars elsewhere.
China, Russia, the USA, Asia, Africa and South America know very well what a roaringly strong Europe is capable of, it’s in the background – no one wants a strong Europe again except Europe, and when the Germans start roaring about Festung-Europe with lots of new divisions, even we get reasonably scared.
In 2008, the USA managed to lay the sourdough with us so we got the PIIGS.
Now in 2026, the EU is infinitely stronger to resist an acute financial crisis – which probably will come this autumn.
The USA has pressed every key on the keyboard since the turn of the year, it is clear that they are rushing towards something where a qualified guess is that a financial crisis will wash over us.
Money is scared and volatile – bad political decisions or external threats can speed up those flows lightning fast.
USA’s endgame is probably to get Russia to open a conflict front against Europe just as the financial crisis hits so capital flees to the USA, we get PIIGS 2.0 but their petrodollar and national debt are saved. The bonus, as usual, is that finance in the USA can earn their blood money.
Russia wants Europe to stop supporting Ukraine because the whole self-inflicted mess is becoming unpleasant for them, and then Putin wants to survive a few more years.
The proposal on Putin’s desk is probably to open a conflict front in the Baltics but while Europe (NATO can be forgotten) manages to agree on a response. Those of you who have already dismissed this because you thought I imagined a major attack into Europe can calmly read on.
What is the risk for Russia –
The Baltic Fleet and Kaliningrad are obviously vulnerable and then of course the Russian troops that enter the Baltics. I don’t think they expect Europe to unite in retaliation against targets in Russia – Russia is also risk-takers who basically only back down from obvious violence so it is highly likely they will try to stretch the boundaries as far as possible.
Something that could precede a conflict is if RU brings troops into Kaliningrad again and then the Baltic Fleet leaves the quay.
Zapad 2025 was the obvious cover for the preparations but it did not come – I could imagine that this escalation needs to happen in time so that it causes maximum damage before a financial crisis.
How do you do this now in the best way (asking for a worried friend in a bunker in Altai)?
The usual disinformation is already underway about Russian minorities in the Baltics. The Baltics are trying to counteract but quite a lot of sabotage has been carried out.
Going to war with Poland is out of the question, but you also need to get Poland to stay out of the conflict.
The key to this is probably the following – Poland has promised to defend Lithuania together with Germany. Estonia and Latvia have their old agreements to hope for but Europe has ALREADY TODAY not followed them – we have known for a long time that a nice agreement on shrimp shell paper with hard promises has about the same value as the shrimp shells.
Yes, Finland has promised to defend Estonia but how they will get troops over after a conflict start is unclear to me.
Then Russia must project a big threat against Europe without going to war against Europe, the geranium threat today is a big threat to us and then it will probably be the usual nuclear threat.
If they think they can get away with that, they place the Baltic Fleet by Europe’s coasts and open the missile tubes without saying a word.
Otherwise, they probably move the Baltic Fleet to Murmansk because if Russia has learned anything the hard way, it is that their big ships are just big targets.
Unfortunately, one more thing can actually be done – a tactical nuclear detonation in Ukraine to show that they dare to scare Europe. The USA will not hesitate, Trump probably wanted to blow up Iran with nuclear weapons already?
Now Putin probably has two choices to make –
– a limited attack into the forests in eastern Baltics in the area west of Pskov, NE Latvia and/or SE Estonia. I believe in Estonia.
This area is basically undefended and can relatively easily be occupied with a smaller force that then goes on the defense – these units are already in the area on the Russian side.
Everyone is calm because there are not 200,000 mechanized units but what is needed is maybe 20,000 light units that are already ready to be deployed.
Here RU then stops and the disinformation campaign goes bananas all to prevent a coordinated European response.
Then come demonstrations, gang wars and a wave of unexplained technical failures in our arms industry/power supply which Russia flatly denies. The USA with Trump at the forefront calls us warmongers because we have the audacity to point out Russia.
When our governments try to agree on a military response, several parties will become the greatest champions of peace and the politicians no one guessed will vote no “because they want to save the children”.
A military response is completely absent, the Baltics have to deal with this – probably some deployable capability that doesn’t require parliamentary approval, like our Baltic boat, will be sent to the Baltics but no one manages to make the decisions to retake the occupied area by force, so they stay a few miles away to protect the capitals “against continued Russian attacks” that never come.
Then in October all the countries’ Chiefs of Defense breathe a sigh of relief because it’s the rainy season, everyone knows that no military operations can be conducted then – ask the Germans. “We’ll solve this next year, in 2027 we’ll really give the Russians a beating.”
A financial crisis – PIIGS 2.0 – a few government crises later, Europe’s Chiefs of Defense start thinking about budget discipline because the politicians are just trying to survive.
– an attempt at a full invasion of the Baltics is his second option.
No, I don’t think they dare start with that but on both sides of the Suwalki Gap, remote mining and drone units will be on high alert, the Russian version of Defcon 1 where they’re not completely drunk on Sundays. IF Poland or Germany start moving troops through, a decision will be made whether to mine again and drone away the long columns of unprotected mechanized units or if they assess that they’re just driving into Lithuania.
If Russia feels that Europe is completely paralyzed, they might very well try to run over the Baltics but for that they probably need to feel that we are cowardly, scared, and have the same decision paralysis as during the first four years of the Ukraine war – and they don’t know that for sure yet.
What they don’t want is to go in big and get beaten immediately like in 2022, so the most suitable approach is probably to test the waters a bit first and then advance positions if they assess it’s possible.
The materiel is already stored in depots in the Pskov area and the command structure for the new military district with units for a limited operation in the Baltics is already in place.
If Ukraine signals that a few divisions are leaving Ukraine, we know they are going for the higher option.
The window for Russia is probably closed during autumn 2026, I guessed autumn 2025 for the simple reason that Europe has finally begun to understand that interceptor drones work well against Geran, so we are now manufacturing those – training + getting them out to units remains but once that is done, the Geran threat is eliminated which is a big part of keeping us grounded.
If Russia chooses the higher level, they need to ensure that no reinforcements arrive in the Baltics in time – apparently Europe will not deploy troops to the Baltics at elevated threat levels according to agreements with the Baltics, the Russian bastards got confirmation of this already during Zapad 25 which was very unfortunate.
The Suwalki Gap is probably quite easy to close but then the Baltic Sea Fleet must be sacrificed to stop movements by sea – guess if our government will dare to run the Finland ferries to the Baltics when all Russian submarines are on standby.
What the Russians will also immediately do is fortify islands in the Baltic archipelago, the islands in the Gulf of Finland and maybe Åland with anti-ship missiles and air defense equipped Spetsnaz.
What does the political landscape in Europe look like today and how does Russia think?
Denmark already has a political crisis so can probably be expected to remain passive.
Sweden has elections in September so we’re probably locked in then?
Finland stands strong but they have an eastern border to Russia to defend.
For the Baltics, it probably doesn’t matter – they choose war.
Poland got a difficult president but they hate the Russians so there it’s probably necessary not to poke them too hard with a stick.
Germany will NEVER be able to vote for a timely operation, they still have too many old STASI officers in their politics so that critical week will yield nothing.
France with Macron is a wildcard, if Putin is unlucky the Foreign Legion will be deployed on the day and choose war.
Other countries in Europe will not participate – anyone who thinks Spain will send troops to the Baltics and in the UK Starmer is just trying to survive, forget it beyond some symbolic gesture.
Ukraine is fully occupied with its war but can always spare some capability so it’s important that Russia doesn’t collapse in Ukraine before they escalate in the Baltics.
How do you further lock Europe – Svalbard, Cyprus?
In 2022 it was actually urgent but Ukraine stopped the party, Hungary had mobilized and if Kiev fell they would enter Ukraine – this is now accepted.
Belarus would attack towards Lviv and close the border to Europe but Ukraine held out so the Russian bastards fled.
There was nothing wrong with the Russian planes – they had 1500 operators nested in Kiev, they dropped paratroopers over the presidential palace and almost took Hostomel.
The Ukrainian armed forces were in the eastern part of the country so old veterans looted weapon depots to be able to defend Kiev.
Platoons were at junctions west of Kiev, they were wiped out but prevented the Russian spearheads from entering Kiev.
Hostomel was defended by all available units that just fought fiercely until reinforcements arrived.
Then the big fuel shortage – the units coming down from Belarus had sold the fuel for alcohol. Since the war was paused until the Olympics were over to curry favor with China, no one could drive off-road and were limited to the main roads.
Small Ukrainian needle sticks that stopped the entire huge vehicle column made the soldiers idle their vehicles for heat until they ran out of fuel and the tankers couldn’t get through.
A logistical nightmare for the Russian command which led to Ukraine surviving.
When Ukraine then tried to win the war in 2022 and 2023, the USA stopped it when Europe was too cowardly to dare oppose the USA.
All that is behind us, but it’s not behind Russia – they have learned lessons and will try the same rope trick again but without all the mistakes.
At some point this autumn the danger will be over but until then it’s absolutely high risk.
What Europe should do pronto is huge military exercises in Finland all summer, deploy the damned brigades to the Baltics we promised them according to agreements and then openly prepare a strike against the Baltic Sea Fleet and Kaliningrad that we advertise like McDonald’s new burger.
Our heavy attack should do something for all the tax billions?
Remove the damned shadow fleet, we know which ships have the cassettes with Geran drones.
We must project a sufficiently large threat already today but we don’t – until we do, Russia will continue on the current path because they never stop until they are stopped.
Yes, Ukraine might manage to end the war before the Russian escalation starts but if you want peace, you prepare for war.
The downside for Russia has been minimal so far – we need to significantly increase that downside for them to refrain.
Poland should, for example, deploy a couple of divisions against Kaliningrad and be very clear that any Russian invasion of the Baltics, any of the countries, will lead to them taking back Kaliningrad for the Germans but keeping it as repayment for the last war the Germans fought.
This is the threat to Europe and everything is now in motion – if you don’t see the signs, you don’t want to see the signs or you have been paid not to see the signs.
This is not the escalation of the whole year but only the part directed at us.
The Iran war is becoming exciting for a very simple reason, Israel absolutely wanted regime change – now their situation is quite critical really even if it is early.
Yes, it is early because the US probably plans at least one more strike here in the coming months.
But the two things that stood out were immediately a red flag – first, the US and Israel actually baited Iran to retaliate against surrounding countries by starting to attack oil infrastructure inside Iran.
We said immediately that these were not military targets, starving out Iran through this takes years – Lex Russia.
The result you know – an acute fuel crisis that will probably hit Western countries hardest, Japan and Australia are starting to be in a bad position and Europe has to choose between doing as the US says so we get their oil or turning off the lights.
The second was that before a month had passed in time when Israel started fighting IRGC and Basij groups on the streets with drones, AR10s and Apaches were in place – they are almost perfect against soft and hard ground targets.
IRGC had begun to desert in small numbers, the border with Pakistan and Afghanistan was full of waving, terrified former genocidaires.
We then see how militias form in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan – flags are waved and slogans chanted.
Then come videos of them rolling towards Tehran and finally when they are in place.
Even commercial flights landed in Tehran and out poured militiamen ready to murder Iranian civilians.
Now they are in place in Tehran and other cities – how the citizens of Iran will be able to carry out their revolution now is questionable but the much bigger question is why Israel and the US did not fight these long snakes of Toyota pickups as they slowly advanced towards Tehran.
They could see individual rocket launchers and attack them just as they fired, they chased Basij patrols on the streets of Tehran – they did not lack eyes on the ground then.
It is hard to come to any other conclusion than that causing a fuel crisis is part of the plan.
Russia and China would probably have preferred that the US did not attack Iran I guess even if everyone tries to find advantages – they would have been greater if Iran had not been leveled and absolutely no one can reasonably weigh the risk that a popular revolution might have succeeded, then it would be game over for the world’s largest terror exporter.
Russia is being cajoled by the US so it is unlikely they will face troubles.
Turkey is in the game and at least Macron spoke off-script and threatened French problems if Cyprus was attacked – there are two to choose from for that war crime, Turkey or Greece.
The next obvious escalation is in Asia which is the area where The Great War between China and the US will be fought.
If the US agrees with China to divide the world between them just as they have done with Russia, we have a problem but I refuse to believe that before I see it – mostly because it is a bit like nuclear weapons, too bad to even discuss.
Australia has big problems – China is not a big admirer of Australia so maybe they will continue to have big problems?
Taiwan has at least been to China and been offered a Hong Kong solution now that the US will not support them.
Japan is rearming.
The positive thing is that China understood that their technological leap was about as successful as the Great Leap – shoddy construction that was substandard. We did not know that before but now we know it after the Iran war.
However, China has quantity and someone must have said that quantity is a quality in itself – manufacturing and soldiers.
China has big problems – now the EU did not want a trade agreement with them because we run Europe First, their housing bubble is leaking and Chinese can be quick to demand accountability. They have previously lynched managers of banks and housing companies who froze assets or speculated away money.
In the next post we will return to Europe – we can either continue to squander every chance we get or we can move towards a booming golden age, the coming years will decide. Exactly everyone else will do their utmost to ensure we continue to squander every chance, what we have not yet seen but which exists as an alternative is to start assassinating heads of state who could not be bribed and try to start low-intensity civil wars among us, the building blocks have been laid for that since before 2015 but especially 2015 and onwards gave a lot.
That is how it looks in the year of grace 2026, we can all hope that Europe’s mosaic of more or less worthless heads of state with their sluggish staffs collectively find their inner angry little Viking sometime before this autumn. All decisions going forward will be staggeringly difficult for our governments to make and everything will involve blown-up infrastructure and fallen soldiers.
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-05-05
SLAVA UKRAINI
Interesting as usual Johan no 1.👍👍👍
But I don’t think the Russians will enter the Baltics. No war with NATO either, for that matter.
I believe they are building to show strength despite weakness, but one should not forget that Russia only understands violence. They might try in order to then show their (stupid) population that NATO is the bad guy. They don’t realize when the race is lost. One can probably expect some attempt in 2027 that could be very short.
The dangerous thing is if we relax when/if the war enters a temporary freeze or peace. Then the Russian scum will build up their capability over a longer period, as best they can, even if there might be some internal coup. Then they might try against the Baltics, but that is several years ahead.
What should be done in that situation is to lure Belarus out of Russia’s claws, get rid of Lukaporrmustasch, and give the population hope.
Many do not believe it.
If it is not a threat at all – why has Finland increased its preparedness and is conducting exercises?
If you want peace, you prepare for war.
They absolutely do not want war with NATO, nor a united Europe.
When our brigades are in the Baltics, I remain silent.
As I write, one arms themselves to show strength, and Finland arms itself as well. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that anything will happen in 2026.
AFU reports:
https://www.dn.se/direkt/ukraina/2026-05-04/ukrainas-kontring-utlyser-egen-vapenvila/
After the announcement that Vladimir Putin declared a ceasefire during the celebration of the so-called Victory Day this weekend, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyj responds with his own ceasefire.
The Ukrainian ceasefire will apply from midnight between May 5 and 6, according to Zelenskyj.
After that, Ukraine will follow Russia’s actions, the president states.
A neat counter-move to Moscow. Do they want peace on their parade day or not!
Both good and bad, I would like to see them continue to attack Moscow all the way until the ninth.😄
Here Kyiv Independent writes about the same thing:
“Zelensky announces earlier ceasefire starting May 6, ahead of Russia’s ‘Victory Day truce'”
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-announces-earlier-ceasefire-starting-may-6-ahead-of-russias-victory-day-truce/
The Russians probably find it difficult to refrain from bombing hospitals, daycare centers, and apartment buildings for such a long time. So the likelihood that they will maintain the ceasefire for that long is, as Carl Bildt often says, asymptotically approaching zero.
I agree. Ukraine’s leadership is making the Russian devils disappear.
The latter seem unusually nervous, by the way, and have shut down mobile internet in Moscow ahead of the Victory Day celebrations on May 9, AFP reports.
The Tsar is probably terribly afraid of a coup or something similar.
https://omni.se/a/8pPnjr
The localized attacks remain at a relatively low level, with a slight increase. Slightly decreasing unlocalized attacks, but still relatively high, around 50.
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 5↗️
S Slobozhansky 4
Kupyansk 1↘️
Lyman 6↗️
Slovyansk 3
Kramatorsk 3
Kostjantynivka 16💥↘️
Pokrovsk 24💥💥
Oleksandrivskij 7
Huliaipole 29💥💥↗️
Orikhivsk 1
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 3
Localized 102↗️
Unlocalized 47↘️
Total 149
Ratio unloc/loc 0.46↘️
About May 9th. The 70th anniversary celebration should be enough, right? That was probably why there were so many people there? Now it’s time to stop.
With the celebration?
They have always celebrated it quite big but that could be a good explanation for why they are decreasing – what do you say to the masses?
Here are some excerpts from the attacks in Ukraine last night. A refinery appears to have been one of the targets:
“Ukraine reportedly strikes Russian Shahed, Iskander component facility, major oil refinery amid large-scale attack
Leningrad Oblast Governor Alexander Drozdenko first reported a strike to have occurred in an unspecified industrial zone in Kirishi, later confirming that the oil refinery served as the main target.”
https://kyivindependent.com/flamingo-missiles-reportedly-hit-russian-shahed-iskander-component-facility-amid-large-scale-attack/
“Cheboksary is under attack by Ukrainian UAVs “February”. Local reports indicate that “VNIIR Progress” is again under attack.”
https://bsky.app/profile/babayagafella.bsky.social/post/3ml3g2ziynk2e
“Moment of impact. Despite seeing numerous videos coming from the currently Russian city of Cheboksary, Chuvashia, one thing sticks out and this is the lack of any Russian air defense activity. No fire team can be seen or heard, let alone missiles fired. The door is wide open.”
https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3ml3fbsnlx22f
“The Kirishi refinery, Leningrad region, in Russia has been hit.”
https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3ml3d7zizwk2g
“Nafirms confirms the successful attack on the Kinef oil refinery, about which Governor Drodenko wrote.”
https://bsky.app/profile/babayagafella.bsky.social/post/3ml37unsujc2x
“An Ukrainian FP-5 “Flamingo” missile struck the JSC “VNIIIR-PROGRESS” plant in Cheboksary, Chuvasia, currently Russia. The factory produces various products for the Russian military, such as the anti-jamming module “Komet” for Russian UAVs, cruise and ballistic missiles.”
https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3ml36a2ic2c2r
I enter it 👍
Interesting interview with Edward Lucas in SVD.
https://www.svd.se/a/43E4Jo/edward-lucas-varnar-vast-for-aningsloshet-infor-ryssland
It is April, and the trees in London are in full bloom. Along Whitehall lies RUSI – Royal United Services Institute – the world’s oldest think tank in defense and security, founded in 1831.
Edward Lucas, British author and journalist and a regular guest columnist on the editorial page, is moderating there a side event to the ongoing London Defence Conference about the Baltic experiences of Russian neighborhood. It provides an interesting insight into both the big perspectives and how everyday life is affected. One example of the latter is that Russia’s extensive GPS jamming in the Baltic Sea causes some robotic lawnmowers to run amok across Baltic property boundaries.
The Baltic countries’ entry into NATO in 2004 was driven by a pursuit of support and security guarantees, and initially there were some challenges in integration. Just over 20 years later, the picture is completely different. The Baltic states’ invaluable contribution to the defense alliance is detailed understanding of the opponent and the ability to act quickly.
After the seminar, I accompany Edward Lucas to the nearby National Liberal Club, one of many private members’ clubs in London. The Liberal Party’s “bigwigs” founded the club in 1882 for supporters of the liberal cause. We sink into armchairs. In the foyer hangs a youthful portrait of Winston Churchill.
I ask Edward Lucas what lessons are most important from the Baltic countries.
– They have been right from the very beginning. They were right when they fought for their independence. Despite French and German leaders writing a joint letter to Landsbergis (Lithuania’s first head of state after independence from the Soviet Union) urging him to withdraw the declaration of independence, as it was perceived to harm the Western powers’ relationship with Gorbachev. They were right when they persisted on issues of language and citizenship during the 1990s, wanting to restore their pre-war republics.
He continues: The West realized too late the importance of getting the Russian troops out of the Baltics. The West discouraged the Baltic countries from joining NATO and the EU.
– Fortunately, they did it anyway. So we should approach them with humility and respect. Especially right now, when they see things we do not see, smell odors we do not smell, understand things we do not understand, do things we do not do. We should try to emulate their vigilance, readiness, and ability to mobilize quickly.
It has been a year since we last met. “Play for time and plan like crazy” was then his advice to Europe. I ask if he thinks the advice has been followed.
– That everything is moving in the right direction – but far too slowly. Time has been bought for us by Ukraine, at an enormous price. After four years, with many hundreds of thousands dead, mutilated, grieving, or traumatized, we still only do what we feel comfortable with, and expect Ukraine to bear the rest.
He believes the West has bet on Ukraine’s endurance. He calls it right tactically, but wrong morally.
– It is disgusting that Ukrainians fight and die while we slowly get ourselves in order. Why would Putin wait until we are ready? In 10–15 years, one might imagine a more European NATO, with much greater capacity for both defense and deterrence. So why would Russia wait until then? Why not try to stop it in advance?
In ten years, I want to be practically divorced – separate houses, separate economies, no more sex, and clear rules regarding the children.
Edward Lucas has more or less declared the credibility of the defense alliance dead due to the changed American position. What does he think today?
– Trust has decreased on both sides. In three years, we might get a more traditional Republican president or a centrist Democrat in the White House, which would give us a few years of more normality. But we cannot rely on that.
He says we need to negotiate a new relationship with the USA, a more transactional one than the old – while trying to preserve as much as possible of the current relationship. He makes an analogy as if it were a marriage.
– One party says: “In ten years, I want to be practically divorced – separate houses, separate economies, no more sex, and clear rules regarding the children. But until then – are we still okay?” It is very difficult, and the Americans do not like it. They complain that Europe does not do enough, but when Europe starts becoming more independent, they do not like that either. They want us to buy American weapons and follow American decisions. And now we want to manufacture our own weapons, because we do not fully trust them, and we want to reduce our dependence on the USA, because they have given us reasons to do so. We want our own decision-making ability. The Americans will hate that, but it is what we have to do.
The need for continued support to Ukraine is often articulated by many European leaders. How does Edward Lucas view the delivery?
– It is obvious that Ukraine is not getting enough support, otherwise the war would be over and Ukraine would have won, Edward says calmly. That Russia still attacks shows that we are not applying enough pressure. We can, without much effort, give Ukraine the money they need. Their defense industry is not running at full capacity. So we can order weapons – for ourselves and for them – and thereby build up their capacity even more.
He believes Europe is skirting around the hot porridge when it comes to sanctions.
– We have not taken the frozen Russian assets because Belgium says they are afraid. In the UK, we still have not done anything with the money from Chelsea FC that was taken from oligarch Roman Abramovich – it is just sitting in a fund. We have also not dealt with the network of enablers – bankers, lawyers, accountants, insurance people – who keep the Russian economy running. If I were Putin, I would think that Europe is not serious. That we are afraid of the consequences of what happens if we step out of our comfort zone and strike hard. That is a pretty bad position after four years.
The Belgian position concerns Russia’s frozen state assets of $300 billion, originally government bonds and other financial assets that have become cash in accounts in the West. A large sum is held by the Belgian clearinghouse Euroclear.
The arguments for the West to confiscate the money are that Russia has violated international law and therefore should pay damages which can be used in the reconstruction of Ukraine. The objections are that countries’ central bank assets should be legally protected, and that confiscation would undermine trust in the Western financial system and trigger other countries to move their reserves from the dollar/euro. There is also concern about Russian retaliation against the countries currently holding the assets.
A mix of carrot and stick is needed.
I say that Belgium’s hesitation is understandable, and ask what could be done to share or ease the burden. Edward nods. He tells that the Belgian prime minister and his family have been personally threatened.
– It is basically a matter for police and counterintelligence. No European decision-maker should have to be afraid of reprisals when making these kinds of decisions. That is the first. The second is that we should tell Belgium that they are a very privileged member of what can be called the old West. That entails enormous advantages, but also obligations. “How can you expect to host the European Commission, NATO, and a number of other institutions, and have a basically comfortable and good political life, if you do not play with the team when the team needs you?” A mix of carrot and stick is needed.
I recount a reasoning that was brought up during the seminar: if you are to fight Putin’s Russia, you must not “Putinize” your own methods. Does he see that confiscation of Russian money could put Europe in a difficult position later on?
He emphasizes that he is not a lawyer. He mentions his friend Hugo Dixon, who is a British campaign leader, entrepreneur, and commentator for the news agency Reuters. Dixon is one of the main architects behind a plan to channel the frozen state assets to Ukraine via a so-called compensation loan. This means lending money to Ukraine now, but instead of Ukraine repaying the loan itself, future revenues from the frozen Russian assets are used as repayment. Today the assets generate about three billion euros per year in interest.
– Where there is a will, there is a way, says Lucas.
I ask how he thinks the EU as an institution handles the stress test that cooperation is now undergoing.
– The EU is always a bit slow in its reactions. I do not want to diminish the significance of now having joint borrowing for defense, but it is very inefficient.
What he is talking about is Security Action for Europe (SAFE), an EU financing instrument of 150 billion euros, adopted in May 2025 to strengthen the European defense industry through joint procurement. It offers long-term low-cost loans to EU member states.
– SAFE is a euro in, a euro out. That was not how we built up Eastern Europe after the collapse of communism. Then we had the international development bank EBRD, where a euro in became 15 euros out, by borrowing with governments’ combined creditworthiness as collateral.
He has previously talked about plans for a defense bank, The European Rearmament Bank (ERB), which could function like the EBRD. A version of this plan has been given the green light by the British government. Support also comes from the Netherlands and Finland, and it is possible that Poland and Denmark will join as well.
– ERB would also be a way to circumvent SAFE’s other weakness, that money is pumped into a basically broken system for defense procurement where there are no real incentives for Rheinmetall or others to change. These are inefficient, protected structures.
He argues that there needs to be a party that is not a government with national self-interests and that is responsible for maintaining good procurement rules.
– The point of defense spending is not to make defense companies richer. The point is to make us safer. We do not see that yet.
He also sees the EU as a good structure when it comes to military logistics, transport, energy resilience, and also believes it is possible to build closer criminal law cooperation, as well as cooperation in counterintelligence. “But when it comes to hard security and big secrets, the EU is not the right organization.” Moreover, SAFE excludes Britons, Norwegians, Canadians, and others outside the EU due to its design.
– When something is driven by the European Commission, it is seen through the Commission’s lens, which is its task. But if we leave it to the EU to handle our defense, it will not work. Nothing they have done so far makes me believe they can manage it.
Light filters into the room at the National Liberal Club. In a few hours, the closing conference dinner for the London Defence Conference will be held. The overall theme of the conference has been readiness. I ask if he believes the conference has managed to reflect real readiness.
– It is good that they talk about readiness, but we are not ready. A year ago, General Sir Roly Walker, our highest military officer, said that if there was war tomorrow, we would lose. He later retracted it because it was so controversial. But what he said is true. We are not ready.
He believes Europe is not ready to face the warfare that Ukraine experiences, such as drones, cruise missiles, or ballistic missiles.
– But the further east you go, the better it gets.
He highlights Finland as a role model.
– They have good deterrence, among other things through the American cruise missile JASSM. And Russian attacks on Finland have decreased. I do not know if SVD’s readers are aware, but throughout 2025 Finland was subjected to a persistent Russian campaign: vandalism of memorials, attacks on diplomats, and constant propaganda campaigns. Former President Medvedev posed at the Finnish-Russian border with a “black book” of Finnish crimes against humanity. Finland did not react at all. It just rolled off. Nobody cared.
I leave it to the Swedes to assess where Sweden stands, but I am sure every Swede sees that there is room for improvement.
He says he asked Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen if she would recommend the same strategy to Finland’s allies. Valtonen replied: “Russia does many things, but we are quite busy being Europe’s happiest country.”
– Finland has found a perfect answer on certain levels. They are tough when needed, but mostly they just ignore Russia. The Baltic states also do very well, despite being smaller and poorer. Poland is catching up quickly. I leave it to the Swedes to assess where Sweden stands, but I am sure every Swede sees that there is room for improvement.
I note that the turnover rate of geopolitical news is fast, and wonder if he thinks the world is a better or worse place today than a year ago.
He answers that the development is not so one-dimensional that it can be measured on a scale.
– A lot is happening and things are moving in different directions. We may not know for another five or ten years what was really most important. We are in a psychological war with Russia. Such a war has two dimensions. One is how much we are willing to endure to do what is required. The other is attention span. There we are losing right now.
He still sees Ukrainian flags in British windows, but also notes that they have faded.
– Ukraine was so much 2022. Then came Gaza and the war in the Gulf. We have Trump occupying our thoughts all the time.
He feels that the wave of support for Ukraine in 2022 has ebbed, and that many do not feel that Russia’s war affects us, or constitutes a big threat.
– Real, decisive change happens only when people are really scared, really angry, or have a lot to gain economically from it. None of that is present. That is why it is not moving forward fast enough.
Thank you, worth reading! 👍
Now senior commanders have had black on white for over a year that the drone weapon is crushing us.
caused +80% of the losses so definitely something that cannot be ignored.
Off-Topic, Nuclear Power in Sweden
50% want nuclear power but 66% prefer it to be somewhere else.
“Every other Swede is positive towards new nuclear power in Sweden, according to a new survey from P4/Indikator.
The radio has spoken with Gunilla who lives in Stenungsund, one of 15 Swedish municipalities that have received funding to investigate the conditions for expanding nuclear power.
– I am actually opposed, she says but emphasizes that the issue is difficult.
At the same time, the survey shows that only one in three Swedes want a nuclear power plant in their own municipality, according to the radio.”
https://omni.se/halften-av-svenskarna-ar-for-att-bygga-ut-karnkraften/a/d4JX4z
It’s the same as usual, someone else is supposed to solve the problem. People like wind power but not in my backyard! Nuclear power, sure, but some other country can have it.
Damn hypocrisy!
Omni is understood to be jointly owned by Bonniers and Schibsted. A woman who is an opponent of nuclear power is interviewed. The intention from the mainstream media can be noticed.
Saw the documentary about Chernobyl the other day. Very good.
You can look at the whole thing from two perspectives.
Either as a reminder of what happened 40 years ago and how Sweden was affected. How little impact it actually had in the years after, despite initially having major local problems.
Or to scare the younger generation who were too young at the time, to get the anti-nuclear movement going and prepare for a new government that stops everything and shuts down more power plants in Sweden.
We know that what doesn’t go their way is always a threat to democracy.
I remember that our lecturer in Modern Physics gave us an exercise to calculate how much parsley (which, according to an article at the time, one should avoid eating as it was grown in areas in Sweden that had elevated levels) one would have to consume to reach the limit set by the National Board of Health and Welfare(?). I don’t remember exactly, but the correct answer was on the order of kg/week.
The question is wrongly posed. It should only be asked in areas where there is a need. Yes, I want nuclear power for the green transition. No, I do not want it in my municipality because it would be downright idiotic to build a nuclear power plant next to one of Sweden’s largest hydroelectric plants, when the energy demand is not here and the transmission capacity is the problem.
Build everything in Gävle, will send an address suggestion 👍👍
Public service has started the election campaigning… it is an election year…. “right” issues must therefore be highlighted… cf. also the electric car report from last week…
❗️During the night, 🇺🇦Ukrainian forces shot down 1 out of 11 Iskander-M missiles and 149 out of 164 🇷🇺Russian attack drones.
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3ml3l3quv5k2m
Russian mass attack on Ukrainian oil, gas infrastructure kills 5.
Russia’s overnight attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure killed five and injured another 37, Ukraine’s gas utility reported.
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-mass-attack-on-ukrainian-oil-and-gas-infrastructure-kills-five/
“Yesterday, Russia launched an attack on port infrastructure in Chornomorsk, Odesa region, damaging Kernel’s vegetable oil transshipment terminal”
https://bsky.app/profile/saintjavelin.bsky.social/post/3ml3udifoks23
“The green tag where the arrow points is the location where a drone hit a building in Moscow last night. The yellow tags are reported locations of Pantsir air defense systems in Moscow. Russia’s air defense has been tightened around Moscow recently. Well…”
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mkz3xuggrc2i
🎯😎🤔🥳
Pants down completely 😳
Caught with their pantsirs down, as someone on Blåskyn remarked.
👍😁
❗️🇺🇦Ukrainian soldiers from the SIGNUM battalion attack 🇷🇺Russian infantry in the forest in the direction of Lymansk
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3ml3tcw2wys2g
Off-Topic, EU + AI
This is what is needed if we want to eventually avoid being dependent on China and the USA, but we would not only need data centers but also invest in the development of AI as well as alternatives to, for example, Microsoft and others.
The fact that the EU is late to start does not have to be a disadvantage at all; on the contrary. The knowledge, technology, and software have improved, and one probably avoids making the worst mistakes and incurring the enormous costs that the giants in the USA who were first have.
“EU’s plans to invest 20 billion euros in four or five gigantic data centers are receiving strong criticism, reports Politico. The facilities are intended to enable the development of advanced artificial intelligence and increase competitiveness in relation to the USA and China.
Critics question whether there are enough European players who actually need that much computing power. Others warn that the investment is insufficient and that Europe still risks remaining dependent on American technology.
– We can never compete with the investments that have already been made in the USA, said Bulgarian MEP Eva Maydell during a panel discussion in February.”
https://omni.se/eu-satsning-pa-jattelika-datacenter-far-hard-kritik/a/V6xA6p
Now I involuntarily thought of an old film clip from the 60s that was shown at the Infra exhibition in Gothenburg around the turn of the millennium. A very upset woman who did not like that they had decided back then (i.e. in the 60s) to build the Tingstad Tunnel with three lanes in each tunnel tube thought it was insane because “There will NEVER be that many vehicles to make it necessary.”
”India has just shocked Russia by entering into a new security agreement with Ukraine. It seems that India is now prioritizing Ukrainian drone technology and learning lessons from the war in Ukraine. This is a bigger event than it might initially appear and changes the entire dynamic, including why India continues to buy oil and natural gas from Russia while turning to Ukraine on security issues.”
https://youtu.be/Yz81vvno0AU?is=ZdV7DIaOyMawsQEm
Very interesting. What a feather in the cap for Ukraine!
Choosing India would be very good for us.
They are geographically quite poor but have had quite a few wars during the 20th century, so not everything is fun street vendors.
India will try to play both sides as long as they don’t get any crap (or disadvantages) for it. India is, just like China, only looking out for itself.
“We declare a ceasefire from the 5th to the 6th just as RU did on the 9th, then we will follow RU’s lead.”
smart 🤣🤣
RU will definitely continue bombing.
We asked how long Fujairah would survive and the answer was until yesterday 😐
Yes, I am very curious whether there will be any response to the attack from the US/Israel or not. Both options say something regardless.
Next is probably Saudi’s pipeline to the Red Sea?
Read that the Middle Eastern countries now want the regime change that the USA and Israel never carried out, hope it will happen.
“Russia has shut down mobile internet in Moscow ahead of the Victory Day celebrations on May 9, reports AFP. Authorities state that the measure is necessary to protect against Ukrainian drones, which connect via local networks.
The outages affect daily life in the capital. Stores are experiencing problems with card payments and taxi services are not functioning as usual, according to the news agency.
At the same time, the Kremlin has decided to scale down the annual military parade on Red Square, as Ukraine has intensified its drone attacks on Russian targets in recent weeks. In response to Russia’s “unilateral” ceasefire during the celebrations, Ukraine has also declared a ceasefire.”
https://omni.se/ryssland-stanger-av-mobilt-internet-i-moskva/a/8pPnjr
The PR staff is crying
Going well ahead of May 9 🤣🤣🤣
https://x.com/przemekshura/status/2051288177210544340?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
😂
❗️Right now, a fire has broken out in the area of the 🇷🇺Sakmarskaya TPP in Orenburg. Firefighting teams are urgently heading to the scene. Consequences are being established
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3ml43lk7unk2o
“🦅🦅🦅 DroneBomber”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3ml44ssg6e22b