High losses even though it is somewhat lower than the past few days. A new category “Ground robotics complex” has been introduced, which should be about ground robots. At first, I thought they had changed the designation for cruise missiles, but that item is still listed further down.
- 1080 KWIA
- 2 Tanks
- 3 AFVs
- 76 Artillery systems
- 2 MLRS
- 2 224 UAVs
- 12 Ground robotics complex
- 282 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
SLAVA UKRAINI
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
“Russia slams Kyiv with mass drone attack”
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-slams-kyiv-with-mass-drone-attack/
* US to delay arms shipments to Europe, potentially affecting Ukraine, FT reports
Washington has warned its European allies to prepare for delays in U.S. weapons arrivals, including missiles used by Ukraine to defend against Russia, the Financial Times reported on May 2, citing its sources.
During the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran that began in February, the United States churned through its weapons and now needs time to replenish stocks. The U.S., Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire deal on April 8 but no progress has been made in peace talks so far. *
https://kyivindependent.com/reliable-partner-replaced-by-transactional-player-u-s-delays-arms-supplies-to-europe-amid-iran-war/
*
Five years into the full-scale conflict, it has become clear that the model of strategic deterrence – the “steel porcupine” that Ursula von der Leyen often invokes when speaking about Ukraine – offers no guarantee of resilience and long-term peace.
The “steel porcupine” model assumes that, given Russia’s significant resource advantage, Ukraine’s only realistic strategy is to build a defense so strong that continued aggression becomes prohibitively costly for Russia.
However, as of 2026, this model is insufficient on its own. *
https://kyivindependent.com/why-ukraine-needs-russias-terminal-defeat-not-just-deterrence/
* Zelensky Warns of “Specific Activity” on Belarus Border
President Zelensky announced that Ukraine is monitoring unusual movements on the Belarusian border and preparing new sanctions packages as Kyiv anticipates significant diplomatic breakthroughs in May. *
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/75279
* Russia Exports 60,000 Tons of Stolen Grain From Occupied Mariupol
The Mariupol City Council reported that eight vessels have transported looted grain from the occupied port since January, as Russia moves to transform the site into a primary regional logistics hub. *
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/75272
* NATO and Berlin Downplay Risks of US Troop Withdrawal From Germany
The Alliance expressed confidence in its deterrence capabilities despite the departure of 5,000 US troops, while Germany emphasized its ongoing military expansion and increased defense spending. *
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/75267
“Donald Trump is not finished moving soldiers from Europe, reports AFP.
On Friday, the unexpected announcement came that 5,000 American soldiers stationed in Germany are being called home, and more withdrawals now seem to be expected.
– We will cut significantly, and we are cutting many more than 5,000, said Donald Trump during the night towards Sunday.
According to a Pentagon spokesperson, the reductions will be completed within the next six to 12 months.”
https://omni.se/trump-lovar-att-kalla-hem-fler-soldater-fran-tyskland/a/vrkJ6w
“The US decision to withdraw 5,000 soldiers from Germany will have no major impact on the security situation and it is not particularly surprising that it is happening, says Michal Matlak, security researcher at the European University Institute, to NBC.
It does not make much difference considering the large presence the US has in allied European countries today, but according to Matlak it is “yet another warning sign” that the relationship is getting worse.
– It is not a turning point, but another step towards a transatlantic divorce, he says.”
https://omni.se/expert-det-ar-ytterligare-ett-steg-mot-skilsmassa/a/gk3lXL
“The USA’s decision to recall 5,000 soldiers from Germany follows Donald Trump’s ambition to place less focus on Europe and more on the Western Hemisphere, says a Pentagon source to the Washington Post.
The USA has urged Europe to build a NATO led by Europe in a “businesslike” manner, says the source.
– They did not listen to that, and this is the result.
The source further says that statements from Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz about the USA’s war in Iran were inappropriate, but it is not clear if that influenced the decision.”
https://omni.se/usa-kalla-europa-lyssnar-inte-det-har-ar-resultatet/a/aJG9g2
Well, Europe is slow, of course.
NATO countries have long been asked to raise their defense budgets to 2%, Trump raised it to 5%, didn’t he?
Now many countries have finally gotten their act together and actually increased their budgets and started strengthening their defense.
Trump has long been looking for a way out of Europe, and he doesn’t intend to defend us if he can’t exploit us for his needs when he needs it.
He is probably searching high and low for something he can blame to pull troops out as quickly as possible. A bit suspicious that it happened just now, a week after he talked to Putin?
It is probably also true, as 205 writes, that the US needs troops for a ground invasion, or possibly for an invasion of Cuba.
Is it reasonable to assume that the soldiers are intended to be used in Iran in a ground offensive?
It is very possible that these troops could be used in the War against Iran with professionals. There is nothing to prevent them from operating from their bases in Germany.
My guess is that they will mostly be based in the USA, and the remainder will be distributed to bases in other European countries.
The question is how much more the USA will reduce its forces in Europe, as this will negatively affect the deterrence capability for Europe in the short to medium term. However, in the long term, it will negatively impact the USA’s power and influence not only on the European stage but especially in Africa and the Middle East, where the USA’s ability to project power and influence will become very difficult to maintain.
“WITH PROS” Damn, I hate autocorrect….
It should say “Iran with proxies”.
The US decision to withdraw 5,000 soldiers from Germany will have little impact on the security situation and it is not particularly surprising that it is happening, says Michal Matlak, security researcher at the European University Institute, to NBC.
It makes little difference considering the large presence the US has in allied European countries today, but according to Matlak it is “yet another warning sign” that the relationship is getting worse.
– It is not a turning point, but another step towards a transatlantic divorce, he says.
https://omni.se/expert-det-ar-ytterligare-ett-steg-mot-skilsmassa/a/gk3lXL
The unlocalized attacks do not decrease but increase when the localized Russian ones decrease, which raises the ratio. But that it would be harder to locate attacks when the number of localized ones decreases sounds strange. So it is more likely that they have chosen not to specify the location for these attacks. Which suggests that they are not Russian, since Russian war data reporting is thorough. But Ukrainian.
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 0↘️
S Slobozhansky 6
Kupyansk 1
Lyman 6↘️
Slovyansk 2
Kramatorsk 2
Kostjantynivka 17💥↗️
Pokrovsk 26💥💥
Oleksandrivskij 6↘️
Huliaipole 20💥
Orikhivsk 2
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 3
Localized 91
Unlocalized 50↗️
Total 141↗️
Ratio unloc/loc 0.55↗️
Agree, it would be strange if it were not possible to locate them (how on earth would you otherwise even know that battles have taken place) and that it is likely about Ukrainian attacks.
It may possibly be that there are perhaps very many, very small attacks so one simply does not bother to list where they have occurred, but that does not seem very likely considering the ratio.
No, exactly, it should have decreased in ratio as the offensive has tapered off. One doesn’t really increase the reconnaissance/infiltration groups’ activities immediately after a completed offensive, right? Even if that were the case, these groups probably wouldn’t expose themselves by going on the “attack” unless they have the support of an offensive that is pressing forward?
No, I think your conclusion sounds most likely, presented the only alternative explanation I could come up with but as I said, I don’t think it holds.
👍👍I thought I read yesterday that the Russians would change tactics. No more meat grinder attacks but attacks with smaller groups. You probably know more about this than I do. It may be because they have difficulties recruiting people. Kind of like in Sweden during the Great Northern War. I wonder how things have gone with the North Koreans? You don’t hear anything.
No, a bit about NK since the turn of the year. Small groups of 2-4, I believe, appeared on the radar last year and were relevant in Pokrovsk around Christmas when there were reports of small pockets of Russian presence “behind the front.” That small groups were guided behind the front line with the help of drones.
The thing with smaller groups has probably been going on for a while already. There are no longer any larger mechanized attacks either.
When Wagner finally managed to take Bakhmut, it was more a tactic of throwing in everything possible, and also in Andiivka and thereafter (October 2023 and several months after). But they suffered enormous losses. They have probably started to realize that this is a war of attrition that they cannot win by sacrificing endless soldiers and equipment, so they have probably started to become more cautious.
Here you can really see the benefit of multi-day rolling averages, especially after October -25 when the daily curve fluctuates so much. 👍
👍
AI: Operationally, it suggests that the capacity to maintain a high tempo of operations is gradually eroding, although localized concentrations of force are still possible. If one is to speak of a “capitulation phase” in the financial analogy sense, it is phase 2 that is approaching it — but a decisive climactic peak or volume climax is not yet visible in the data up to May 2026. It rather looks like prolonged exhaustion than acute capitulation.
Unlocalized, localized, ratio
Thank you for the interesting graphs! 👍
205, who is always well-informed about most things regarding the war, says that Max Willman on YouTube has an interesting film about Saab’s signal intelligence aircraft in Ukraine. I can’t link it, but you can probably find it. He ends somewhat cryptically: “I know more about this but it is confidential.” Feel free to check it out.
https://youtu.be/AGB7DQBhLaU?is=IxP6wurkfiz7_OU0
Ukraine has now received Sweden’s ASC 890 – a Saab 340 equipped with Erieye radar. This is not an ordinary donation. A flying radar and battle management aircraft can change the entire air situation
along the front, warn against Shahed drones, lead fighter jets, and act as a “gap filler” where ground-based radar stations have been knocked out.
✈️ What ASC 890 actually is and how the AESA radar works
🇺🇦 Why this could mean more than tanks for Ukraine
🌙 How Ukraine will likely use it (hint: at night)
🎯 Why EMCON and airborne command are a game changer
🛰️ How the system interacts with Link 16 and air defense
00:00 Sweden sends ASC 890 to Ukraine
01:21 How the Erieye radar on the Saab 340 works
04:58 EMCON – transmit only when you must
05:17 Sponsor: NordVPN
06:19 Game changer: early warning & battle management
09:54 Night missions against Shahed – why it is invaluable
13:45 Conclusion: A bigger gift than tanks?
A summary that truly deserves the name!👍👍👍
👍🙏👏
The only question mark is probably where all the automotive and fuel tanks (when did they change the name to automotive instead of vehicles? Or is it only MXT that writes Vehicles?) come from? Is it the RU attacks that have changed character or is it the counterattacks that cause these high RU losses?
Check out Pokrovsk in the 22 reports. They usually report different types of losses, and together with the attacks, you can get an idea of the ratio of vehicles to located attacks (assuming Pokrovsk is not significantly different from other sectors).
For example, yesterday:
“
In the direction of Pokrovsk, the enemy carried out 24 attacks. The occupiers attempted to advance towards the settlements of Bilytske, Nove Shakhove, Rodynske, Novooleksandrivka, Udachne, Pokrovsk, Kotlyne, Muravka, and Molodetske.
According to preliminary estimates, 54 occupiers have been eliminated and 24 wounded in this area today, as well as 11 vehicles and one artillery system belonging to the enemy destroyed. Additionally, five vehicles, 90 enemy fortifications, and three artillery systems have been damaged. 239 drones of various types have been destroyed or stopped.”
Say roughly 16 vehicles/24 attacks gives 2/3 vehicles per located attack. Which gives 2/3*91=61 vehicles for the located ones, and thus 280-61=219 vehicles for the unlocated ones, a ratio of 219/50=4 vehicles per counterattack.
👍
Machine translated:
“Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico, after a conversation with V. Zelenskyy, makes a 180-degree turn: Slovakia supports Ukraine’s EU membership.
Bratislava and Kyiv, it is the story of two countries that have not always agreed. Fico, known for his pro-Russian positions, changes tone after a phone call with V. Zelenskyy.
100% support: Slovakia now approves Ukraine’s European ambitions.
1 meeting in sight: Meeting on Monday in Yerevan for a summit of the European Political Community.
0 agreements possible without Ukraine: Fico hammers it in, no peace agreement with Russia will happen without Kyiv.
“Slovakia wants a stable and democratic Ukraine.” Fico, on Facebook.
“We have disagreements, but a common interest: friendly relations.” …. Still Fico.
“Their support for our EU membership is historic.” …. V. Zelenskyy, relieved.
The delegations will exchange visits between Bratislava and Kyiv. Fico in Ukraine? V. Zelenskyy has officially invited him.
Slovakia, between Moscow and Kyiv, balances on a tightrope… it may start to sway”
https://x.com/TKouilou/status/2050616275206898096
“😳🇸🇰🇺🇦 No peace agreement with the Russian Federation is possible without the consent of the Ukrainian side, — Fico He also stated that the country supports Ukraine’s desire to join the EU. ‼️ It is currently unknown what caused the change in Fico’s rhetoric towards Ukraine.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mkv27wmdqk26
Maybe Fico senses which way the wind is blowing…?
Well, he probably wants to avoid ending up like Orbán!
Maybe he has also noticed that Russia is starting to become weaker (perhaps the bribes have decreased) and realizes that he has backed a loser.
Still going to Moscow to see the parade.
Yes, there is a dog buried here. Zelenskyy might have promised to leave the parade alone? ☮️
The second blog claims that he will visit the Unknown Soldier’s grave in Moscow instead of attending the parade. However, no source.
Precis min omedelbara tanke. Valet i Ungern visade att folket inte föredrar att leva under rysk överhöghet.
My immediate thought exactly. The election in Hungary showed that the people do not prefer to live under Russian domination.
It seems so. He doesn’t want to attach himself to a loser.
It could, of course, be that Fico is cozying up to Zelensky so that he will speed up the opening of the oil pipeline through Ukraine.
Off-Topic, USA Politics
Before Trump took power, the majority of Republicans also supported Ukraine, although support was of course even greater among the Democrats. Now most Republicans have fallen in line.
Not so surprising, of course, since there is a hard effort to silence those who dare to oppose Trump.
These are members of Congress who have actually been elected by the people to represent their interests.
Trump does as he pleases despite not representing the will of the people.
“Allies of Donald Trump are spending millions of dollars to defeat incumbent Republican members of Congress who have in one way or another upset the president,” writes the New York Times.
The Republican primaries in Indiana, Louisiana, and Kentucky later in May, held ahead of the fall midterm elections, are all characterized by such candidates. In Kentucky, the spotlight is on Thomas Massie, who, despite voting for Trump’s policies 90 percent of the time, is not particularly appreciated by the president.
Massie has cooperated with the Democrats to force the release of the Jeffrey Epstein documents and has since been called a loser and a madman by Trump.
– It is in times like these that I am glad I don’t have a TV, says Massie.
Historically, Trump has been successful in attempts to punish his critics in the primaries. Only two out of ten Republicans who voted to impeach him emerged victorious in the primaries four years ago.”
https://omni.se/trumplojala-vill-falla-massie-glad-att-jag-inte-har-en-tv/a/d4JeA1
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/02/us/politics/trump-republican-primaries-candidates.html
Why Ukraine needs Russia’s terminal defeat – not just deterrence
Five years into the full-scale conflict, it has become clear that the model of strategic deterrence – the “steel porcupine” that Ursula von der Leyen often invokes when speaking about Ukraine – offers no guarantee of resilience and long-term peace.
https://kyivindependent.com/why-ukraine-needs-russias-terminal-defeat-not-just-deterrence/
Somewhat in line with a post yesterday: https://johanno1.se/sv/ryska-forluster-20/#comment-84065
Definitely a worthwhile article.👍
(I made a reverse post higher up with the same article so the introduction was translated into Swedish).
2nd, MXT⬆️
Aha, that mysterious/mythical steel hedgehog was a steel porcupine.
Good that they are clear that Ukraine is defending both itself and Europe.
Then I didn’t get to read much more.
Practice Danish so that you come alive. Omni linked to Berlinske.
Latest news about the war in Ukraine and the situation in Russia – follow the developments here.
Among other things about the Russian bastards losing ground, based on analysis from ISW, with a nice MoM graph.
https://www.berlingske.dk/internationalt/seneste-nyt-om-krigen-i-ukraine-og-situationen-i-rusland–foelg-udviklingen-her-1697
Have practiced. My great-grandmother was Dragør’s best seal hunter.🇩🇰
😁 Well then. Unfortunately, the language of my ancestors has not led to increased multilingualism.
Written Danish, however, is relatively simple.
Yes, it is a little easier to read but what is a sæbelsluger.
Sword swallower (or saber swallower)
Denmark is nice. High-tech and modern yet still with a touch of HC Andersen that permeates the country.
“Covered in lime and water. Danish bastards!”
“There in the east… With two guards with plutonium…. Sweden.. Carved out of granite… Denmark.. Carved out of chalk and water…
Danish devils… DANISH DEVILS!!!!!”
Ernst-Hugo Järegård and Lars Von Trier.. what geniuses!!! 😀
Off topic
An engine (according to an acquaintance from a tank S) has broken down and almost “exploded” at an engine event.
https://tt.omni.se/rolls-roycemotor-exploderade-tre-till-sjukhus/a/j032PL
Off topic China-EU
Eleven years after Made in China 2025 was launched, something similar is now coming in Europe. In the European Parliament, negotiations are underway on “Made in Europe,” a legislative package that in many ways resembles the Chinese original: support and benefits for companies operating in Europe as well as requirements for foreign companies establishing themselves or investing in the EU.
https://www.gp.se/ledare/kinas-kommunistparti-tar-europa-for-naiva-de-har-delvis-ratt.3f660948-d4ba-4dd5-a450-4da21e342742
FINALLY
Agree. 💪
Nothing Breaks — But Nothing Stops
When the line holds, the pressure moves elsewhere
https://hansboserup.substack.com/p/nothing-breaks-but-nothing-stops
Off-Topic, table tennis
China got beaten! 😂👍
“For the first time in 26 years, China has lost a match in the men’s team World Table Tennis Championships. On Saturday evening, South Korea defeated China 3–1 in matches.
– This is a huge upset that will obviously put pressure on all of China, says the Swedish table tennis star Truls Möregårdh to SVT Sport.
The last time China lost in the World Championships was in 2000 – when Sweden with J-O Waldner and Jörgen Persson won in the final.”
https://omni.se/forsta-vm-forlusten-for-kina-pa-26-ar-superskrall/a/K8Lgm4
First came South Korea then came Sweden.
“The Swedish men’s table tennis team has defeated China in the team World Championship for the first time in 26 years. The sensational victory on Sunday came after debutant Elias Ranefur surprisingly defeated world number six Lin Shidong, previously ranked as the best in the world.
– This is an incredible upset, says SVT’s expert Mikael Appelgren.
Before the last match, the situation was completely even. Then Anton Källberg stepped up and also defeated Shidong. 3-1 in sets meant 3-2 to Sweden in the match.
Sweden has thereby secured the group victory.”
https://omni.se/svensk-vinst-mot-kina-en-oerhord-skrall/a/j03yab
Swedish military has for the first time launched a reconnaissance satellite into space, reports Sveriges Radio. It is the first of ten that will be launched in an initiative expected to cost two billion kronor.
The Swedish Armed Forces’ space chief Anders Sundeman tells the channel that the purpose of the satellites is to monitor large areas and help the military to adjust the aim for weapons with long range. It will, among other things, map military targets in Russia.
– Satellites are very good at reconnaissance over long distances and to conduct continuous surveillance over time, rotating around the Earth, hour after hour, day after day.
The launch took place from a base in the USA on Sunday morning, Swedish time.
Off-Topic, US Forces and Europe
Some Republicans who (despite my comment above) still dare to speak out against Trump.
“Republicans in Congress are concerned about Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw 5,000 American soldiers who have been stationed in Germany, writes The Hill.
In an open letter published by Senator Roger Wicker and Representative Mike Rogers, the two Republicans write that the move risks ‘undermining our deterrence capability and sending the wrong signals to Vladimir Putin.’
The members of Congress are chairmen of the House and Senate Armed Services Committees, respectively, and also write that they expect the Pentagon to explain the decision to them.”
https://omni.se/tunga-republikaner-oroas-fel-signaler-till-putin/a/16v4dX
❗️The oil pumping station west of 🇷🇺Perm has been burning for the fourth day already. According to preliminary data, the entire territory in the red zone has been destroyed or extremely severely damaged. The yellow zone indicates probable damage.
Nice 👍
🚗 Prices for new cars in Russia have tripled over the past 12 years. And it remains the most sanctioned country on earth.
The average cost of a new car is currently 3.79 million rubles, while that of a used one is 1.35 million rubles. Experts believe that prices have reached their peak and will soon start to decline.
https://bsky.app/profile/beefeaterfella.bsky.social/post/3mkwutrpftk26
Feels somehow familiar. Isn’t it the same here? At least a doubling should be a reasonable increase, new cars are ridiculously expensive.
One must exclude hybrids and electric cars from the equation, I guess. I imagine that the Russians have not started buying these, more expensive, vehicles to the same extent.
Exactly
❗️The 🇺🇦Ukrainian-🇬🇷Greek negotiations on the joint production of maritime drones have currently become complicated. According to sources, Kyiv wants to have influence over how Greece will be able to use these systems. Athens considers such conditions unacceptable for arming its own forces.
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mkwujivzbc2k
https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1302389/greece-ukraine-drone-talks-hit-obstacles/
Turkey joined the conversation.
💥 What battle for Mala Tokmachka looks like through the eyes of UAV operators from the 118th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Russian infantry is trying to break through open spaces and lines of engineering obstacles to reach cover.
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mkwujod2es2e
⚡️Russian attacks kill 10, injure over 70 in Ukraine over past day. Ukrainian forces downed 249 out of the 268 drones, including Shahed-type attack drones, launched by Russia overnight, the Air Force reported.
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-kill-8-injure-71-in-ukraine-over-past-day/
“The Ukrainian Defense Forces struck two Russian shadow fleet vessels, which typically transported oil, in the waters at the entrance to the port of Novorossiysk.”
https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3mkwtk37ock2e
“❗️Additional air defense systems are already being brought to 🇷🇺Moscow to cover the parade on Red Square on May 9, – Russian media.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mkwrvyayic2d
“Surface-to-air missile complexes”: missile launch platforms, type Iskander. Reports of destroyed missile platforms / surface-to-air missile complexes have been frequent in recent months.
Also thought along those lines at first, but I think the thing with complex is what misleads you, I think it is about other types of ground robots (although it may of course also refer to robot platforms as well).
“The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has decided to start releasing statistics on destroyed Russian ground robotic systems. As of early May, Ukraine’s defence forces have taken out almost 1,300 Russian ground robotic systems.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/05/02/8032805/
Unfortunately, it seems that Russia has come quite far:
“Russia has quietly built one of the most active ground robot industries in the world, and most of the companies producing the unmanned vehicles now fighting in Ukraine face no Western sanctions at all.”
https://defence-blog.com/new-report-tracks-russias-growing-combat-ground-robot-fleet/
Oh, ok..
Well, 205 UA has taken out quite a few icebreaker platforms.
There used to be 45 up at the northern front.
Don’t have the energy to check how many they have now, but certainly large expensive launch ramps have always taken a hit.
For a long time, it was strictly forbidden for Ukraine to do this – it’s heartbreaking, but all’s well that ends well, I suppose.
One can easily be misled into thinking that “Ground Robot Complex” is a psychological condition that affects, for example, Russians when they realize that they are hopelessly behind Ukraine in the field of technological development. 😉
“Russia launched 268 drones and an Iskander-M ballistic missile against Ukraine overnight, with more than 160 of the UAVs identified as Shaheds. Ukrainian forces said 249 drones were downed or suppressed by 08:00, while 19 UAVs and the missile hit 15 locations.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mkwnpgqtl22c
The exercise in Sweden – UA drones crushed us 😳
https://x.com/dahbjo/status/2050844674282144106?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
RU has this ability.
How can we not have learned?
RU can also read
Johan!
It is good at such an early stage in training that Ukraine “pulls down our pants” and shows our shortcomings and failures.
It is also good that this is communicated outwardly so that no one at a responsible level is tempted to lean back and “pick their belly button” without it shaking things up and leading to infinitely greater insight, changed tactics, faster and more extensive training efforts, and ultimately better units that can match and defeat the Russian counterparts.
Completely agree except for “early”.
It is extremely late in the game not to have acquired this capability that Russia has.
+80% of the losses are from the drone weapon, and if you don’t have your own, that’s one thing, but not being able to defend yourself against the drones at all is a bit risky.
There is a bit of a blitzkrieg warning on this.
Simple “fire and forget” interceptor drones will blunt this, but not before they are out with the units, and they are not.
Johan. I agree with you that it is a “peace damage deluxe” not to have progressed further after almost more than 4 years of war, but I was referring to “early” in the sense that we are early in the process of finally having started training on this.
Yes, I understand 👍😀
For those of you who possibly cannot read SVD.
“THE DRONE WAR REGION On paper, they face enormous odds against them. Ten Ukrainian drone pilots are part of a defense group of only one hundred soldiers participating in a war exercise in the forests of Estonia. The mission: Survive a NATO force of thousands of soldiers storming towards them, reinforced by world-class armored vehicles.
After half a day, NATO soldiers give up. The drone team disables 17 combat vehicles and neutralizes two NATO battalions – that is about 1,200 soldiers rendered combat ineffective. The Ukrainians are not found and all ten survive the exercise.
This was part of NATO’s large spring exercise Hedgehog 25, which took place in May 2025. Only in February this year could the Wall Street Journal reveal the results after the exercise phase. It was a cold shower for the entire defense alliance – and voices were raised claiming they are unprepared and do not take modern drone warfare seriously.
What do Sweden’s preparations look like for a war dominated by drones? The Armed Forces have several times stated that they are taking strong lessons from Ukraine, where warfare has changed drastically.
A major topic of conversation in Ukraine
At a military base in eastern Ukraine, we meet the drone pilot “Sirko,” who wants to use his soldier name in SvD.
He is today one of Ukraine’s most experienced drone pilots. At the start of the full-scale invasion, he enlisted in an infantry unit but transferred to a drone unit in 2023. The year after, the war has largely been dominated by drones.
Since the turn of the year, he has been responsible for the first assault regiment’s drone training. There is high demand – unlike before, the bottleneck today is the number of pilots, not the drones themselves as it was previously.
When the lesson ends, he says that last year’s NATO exercise became a major topic of conversation among everyone in his unit. A frustration began to grow that the West does not take the new war seriously. He also does not hide that he assesses Russia to have drone capabilities equivalent to Ukraine’s.
There is limited material available to get an overall picture of the Armed Forces’ own exercises. One exception is the web series “The Armed Forces from Within.” In half-hour episodes, various units are highlighted, where you follow Swedish soldiers and officers in their daily lives. The Armed Forces’ goal with the series is to provide “a unique insight into what it means to be employed in the Armed Forces.”
We place Sirko in front of a computer screen where he is asked to comment on what he sees based on his own experiences. The episode, from May 2025, focuses on how the Armed Forces have adapted to fighting with drones. It is an exercise where a platoon, between 20 to 40 soldiers, uses a reconnaissance drone to defend themselves against an attack.
“Are you joking?”
We turn on Ukrainian subtitles and press play. It doesn’t take long before Sirko shifts uncomfortably. It is a dug-out bunker that he reacts to. It lacks overhead protection and therefore becomes an easy target for drones to destroy, he explains.
How long would the soldiers survive in a real situation?
– After they are discovered? I give them 15 to 20 minutes.
The next comment comes shortly after.
– Seriously, are you joking?
On the screen, there is a trench dug to connect the defensive positions. It is barely half a meter deep and also lacks overhead protection.
He explains that a proper trench in this war must be at least 170 centimeters deep and covered with netting or a roof to withstand the constant Russian drone attacks.
– Otherwise, an enemy drone will see you immediately.
Can give false security
In a real situation, Russia would first jam all communications, then bomb the Swedish trenches to pieces and attack only afterward.
In the video, enemy tracked vehicles are seen on the roads, but in reality, they are always mined, which the Russians know. And the soldiers would never leave the vehicles in open fields, nor walk in a large group.
The exercise on the screen ends with the “enemy” storming straight toward the Swedish positions, and all are mowed down by a machine gun.
Russia does not fight like this?
– No, no one fights like this. You have simulated events that never actually happen.
One risk, according to him, is that Swedish soldiers may be lulled into a false sense of security that they can face the Russians in the same way as in the video – and then be shocked if Russia actually attacked.
From time to time, Sirko apologizes for his harsh comments. He says he has “enormous respect for Sweden” and the support that has been sent – but that the Western world has an uphill battle ahead if they are forced to measure themselves militarily against Russia.
Recently, this type of criticism has rained down from several directions. In February, SvD reported on the Swedish drone operator Oscar, a volunteer soldier in Ukraine, who spoke about colleagues in the Armed Forces who still in exercises set up tents near front lines.
– Everyone would die if it were real, was Oscar’s statement after his own time at the front.
In November 2025, Ukrainian BBC reported on another military exercise where Czech paratroopers met Ukrainian drone pilots. After a while, the Ukrainians were urged to stop using their drones – they took out the Czech soldiers “far too quickly.” The Ukrainian participants responded that such a change would be unrealistic for a modern war.
“The drone battle is decisive”
Oscar Jonsson, a researcher in war science at the Swedish Defence University, has seen Sirko’s comments and largely agrees with the criticism. He sees the exercise as “representative of how it looks broadly” within the Armed Forces, and that it takes time to adapt to the new reality where drones dominate.
He explains that the Armed Forces have begun experimenting with drones and that they are starting to reach the units. However, adaptation is slow.
– In Ukraine, the drone battle is decisive. The opponent’s drone groups are the prioritized target to enable other forces to advance. And there, Sweden, and the West in general, have a long way to go to the ‘drones first’ reality that we see, he says.
According to Jonsson, there are several reasons for this. Among other things, he sees a mindset within NATO that a war with Russia would look very different, with more maneuver warfare than the trench warfare that characterizes the Ukraine war. Then drones would not have as prioritized a role.
– I think that is a misconception. Drones offer enormous possibilities in all domains, and wars tend to become wars of attrition.
Armed Forces: “A lot is going on”
Henrik Bjelkow is responsible for the Armed Forces’ procurement of drones. He tells SvD that Sirko is “completely right in his criticism” – but adds that the exercise in question is a “staged filming” made for PR purposes and that the Armed Forces in such a context cannot show how they train advanced tactics or think tactically.
At the same time, he confirms that what is seen in the video is largely a representative exercise for conscripts, but for standing units with continuously serving personnel, the training has a different content.
The goal of the exercise, according to him, is to train conscript soldiers in the basics including command giving. The bunkers are open so that the officers can more easily see inside them and teach better.
And he says that they have close cooperation with Ukraine:
– We have a large contingent in Ukraine with military personnel. And we get instructors from Ukraine here, he says.
They have had several smaller exercises earlier together with Ukrainians, he continues, where they act as opponents. The lessons learned there have been many, according to Bjelkow.
Another point from Sirko was that most of the Armed Forces’ drones a year ago were primarily GPS-guided. During SvD’s trips along the front line, it has been clear that GPS is often knocked out and other navigation systems have to be used. Bjelkow states that the Armed Forces have now improved their capabilities in this area. The number of drones they have is also constantly increasing.
– A lot is going on right now. It will be communicated during the summer, when some contracts are finalized, he says.
If the Armed Forces end up in a real conflict with Russia – are Swedish soldiers sufficiently trained to build protection correctly?
– Yes, I would absolutely say that.”
** The oil spill in Tuapse and the lessons Russia didn’t learn
While the human toll of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine remains its most devastating consequence, another aspect of Russia’s onslaught is often overlooked: Moscow’s war on ecology.
Responding to Russia’s growing air attacks against Ukraine, over the past 10 days, Ukrainian forces carried out a multitude of drone strikes targeting an oil refinery in Russia’s port city of Tuapse.
Tuapse, on the Black Sea, has served as a primary point for Russia’s oil exports, the proceeds of which are then used to finance the Kremlin’s attacks on Ukraine.
As a result of the destruction, hundreds of tons of oil leaked from the facility, turning the city and the shore into a contaminated disaster area. **
https://kyivindependent.com/the-oil-spill-in-tuapse-and-the-lessons-russia-didnt-learn/
Have you heard anything from the environmental movements about the great ecological disaster of our time?
Our great champion whose name starts with G was recently named the world’s worst antisemite, but if she were to find her way back to her roots, I suppose she could take on Russia.
You might want to read up on the environmental movements and what they think instead of coming up with your own unproven conspiracy theories where you constantly try to insinuate that they are on Russia’s side.
I have already previously presented with sources plenty of statements from various environmental movements, but it seems you obviously don’t care about that because you really want to push your thesis. I guess I’ll have to take a different angle this time.
Already in March 2022:
“Now the Green Party proposes that all imports of Russian energy should cease immediately.
– We need to introduce a total import ban as a way to hurt Putin maximally and force him to withdraw his army, says Lorentz Tovatt (MP).
But the government supports the EU’s more cautious line.”
https://www.etc.se/klimat-miljo/regeringen-nobbar-mp-s-foerslag-om-importstopp-av-rysk-olja-och-gas
A year later they try again:
“A year after Russia’s brutal war of aggression against Ukraine began, Sweden continues to import fossil fuels from Russia. Since the first week of the war, the Green Party has advocated that Sweden should stop all imports of fossil fuels from Russia. We must stop financing Putin’s war chest. Today Tuesday, at the request of the Green Party’s parliamentary group, a special debate was held in the parliament about Sweden’s import of Russian fossil energy.”
https://www.mp.se/just-nu/nar-ska-regeringen-sluta-stotta-kriget/
“Green Party: Put Russia on trial for ‘environmental murder'”
Russia is not only waging war against the people of Ukraine, but has also targeted the destruction of the country’s nature. This is written by the Green Party in an opinion piece in Aftonbladet.
As an example, they highlight the blowing up of the Nova Kachovka dam last summer, which flooded communities and farmland with enormous amounts of water and chemicals.”
How do you think that fits with being bought by Russia?
They were therefore the first to want to stop the imports. You yourself have several times frustratedly complained that we continue to buy Russian.
If you want to put an end to that, you simply have to make sure to vote for the Green Party!
(The Sweden Democrats otherwise wanted us to start buying more gas from Russia now during the war.)
Greenpeace:
Already in 2014 activists were imprisoned in Russia:
“Imprisoned Greenpeace activists in Russia”
https://www.riksdagen.se/sv/dokument-och-lagar/dokument/skriftlig-fraga/fangslade-greenpeaceaktivister-i-ryssland_h11193/
They have launched campaigns to stop the oil fleet:
https://www.greenpeace.org/sweden/agera/oil-is-war/
In 2023 they were classified as undesirable by Russia:
“Amsterdam, Netherlands – The Office of the Russian Federation Prosecutor General has declared Greenpeace International an ‘undesirable organisation’ on the grounds that the work of Greenpeace “poses a threat to the foundations of the constitutional order and the security of the Russian Federation.”
https://www.greenpeace.org/international/press-release/59745/environmental-protection-undesirable-russia-greenpeace/
Feel free to also read this:
https://mathsnilsson.se/2022/03/06/hur-klimatrorelsen-gav-ryssland-makten/
Do you have sources for all of this 🧐
Moving image and clear sound.
There is so much fake news now with AI that you have to be careful
The sources are not Twitter. 😉
I continue to have a persistent skeptical attitude towards parts of the environmental movement and the Green Party in particular as long as they do not have a realistic approach to the crucial importance of nuclear power in successfully making us independent of fossil energy sources.
The common thread when it comes to the Green Party is that they are against everything that stabilizes society. Mining, forestry, agriculture, transportation, cement, energy, etc. Stopping gas from Russia can be positive from that perspective.
Ball! Exactly my thought with… exactly like that.
🎥How many Ukrainians does it take to change a light bulb?
https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/2050689973024698779/video/1
😂👍
❗️Right now, 🇷🇺Belgorod is under missile attack. Russian air defense is operating.
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mkwyypn6as2g
“Russia Has Now Reached the End of an Entire Tank Family: The T-80”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZY3A2Lb6EM
Saw a good summary recently, probably the one you have a picture from, about everything.
They have a few thousand left at the fronts, build a few hundred per year, and what remains in storage is basically like building new anyway.
When they get started with mechanical failures this summer, it will go down quickly.
A Russian ‘Kalibr’ carrier is down. Major General Yevhenii Khmara reported on the successful strike against targets in the port of Primorsk. It was a joint operation by our security service in Ukraine, the unmanned systems forces, the special operations forces, the defense intelligence service, and the border patrol. Thank you all, warriors, for your coordinated work!
The Karakurt-class missile ship was hit, along with a patrol boat and another tanker from the shadow oil fleet. Significant damage was also inflicted on the oil terminal port’s infrastructure. Each such result further limits Russia’s war potential. I have also approved additional, fully justified responses from Ukraine’s security service to Russian attacks on our cities and villages. Russia can end its war at any time. Extending the war will only expand the scope of our defense operations. Thanks to everyone fighting for Ukraine!
https://x.com/zelenskyyua/status/2050893365957316790?s=46
What do you think about May 9th?
A smart idea would be to lure all the Russian air defense into Moscow and then strike other targets that no longer have any protection?
I don’t have much confidence in Russian air defense anyway, so if Ukraine decides to send five thousand drones against Moscow over a few days, the number of hits will be enough anyway.
Maybe they will take out all the air defense systems that are now gathered in one place?
Putin on the big screen must be guaranteed, right?
3-4 countries will come this year 🤣🤣🤣
Thought the same, they should send a few drones towards Moscow every day from now on so Russia is forced to move everything they have there, and then you go after completely different places on the 9th.
😡
“A Russian drone struck a bus that had been carrying 40 children at a petrol station near Dnipro on the morning of 3 May. Six wounded, including a 10yo boy and a pregnant 21yo woman. Across Ukraine, Russians killed eight civilians and injured around 90.”
https://bsky.app/profile/euromaidanpress.bsky.social/post/3mkx4padl6b2q
❗️As a result of the attack by the Security Service of 🇺🇦Ukraine on the LPDS “🇷🇺Perm”, all tanks with a capacity of 50,000 m³ each (approximately 314,000 barrels of oil/oil products per tank) have been completely destroyed. A significant portion of the technological pipelines burned due to the spill.
The technological process at the station has been halted for an indefinite period. One tank (likely 20,000 m³) was partially damaged, while three others remained undamaged. In total, across two raids, approximately 70% of the entire LPDS “Perm” facility has been burned.
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mkx3kiqics2g
Seems to be increasingly common to dare to criticize Putin (several who do so are of course no longer in Russia).
“Chaos As Russians Call For The End Of Putin’s Regime”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCDMDixcMxQ
Isn’t the rule that you always have to have someone backing you up to dare to do something like that in Russia 🧐
“Only after the Ukrainian soldier Vadym Lietunov had thrown himself into an improvised shelter at the front against Russia did he realize that something was wrong with the other man’s dialect, reports The Guardian. He was Russian.
– I said: You’re not one of us, are you? Please don’t kill me, Lietunov recounts.
During the two weeks that followed, Lietunov lived together with the Russian soldier Nikita, whom he describes as a petty thief and addict who had been forced back to the front by his commanders after attempting to desert.
Lietunov lived under constant threat of death and says he played dumb to lull Nikita into a false sense of security. His Russian guard gave him very little food but also told nothing to his commanders.
In the end, Lietunov managed to persuade Nikita to surrender to the Ukrainian side instead, with promises that their prisoners received “three meals a day, cigarettes, and the Geneva Convention.”
– It’s a miracle. A one-in-a-million chance. I was captured, and it ended with me coming home with a prisoner, says Lietunov.”
❗️Zelenskyy has arrived in Yerevan, Armenia: scheduled to participate in the European Political Community summit
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mkx5b2l5pk25
Russian forces in April 2026 suffered a net loss of territory controlled in the Ukrainian theater for the first time since Ukraine’s August 2024 incursion into Kursk Oblast.
ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces lost control of 116 square kilometers in April 2026, not counting areas into which Russian troops may have infiltrated. The Russian rate of advance across the battlefield has been steadily declining since November 2025 as continued Ukrainian ground counterattacks, Ukrainian mid-range strikes, the February 2026 block on Russia’s use of Starlink terminals in Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s throttling of Telegram have exacerbated existing problems within the Russian military.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-2-2026/
❗️The Special Operations Forces of 🇺🇦Ukraine have confirmed a successful strike on a Project 🇷🇺Karakurt missile ship, which had eight Kalibr cruise missiles on board, as well as on the 🇷🇺Primorsk oil terminal in the Leningrad Region of the Russian Federation.
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mkx3wshzuc25
“Defense forces hit the Karakurt missile ship, from which Russian Caliber missiles are launched, — Zelenskyy. In addition, strikes were carried out on a patrol boat and another tanker of the Russian shadow fleet. Significant damage was also caused to the infrastructure of the Primorsky oil port.”
https://x.com/blyskavka_ua/status/2050908644896542945
At Kramatorsk in the Donetsk region, the Ukrainian army has built a huge underground complex from which drones at the front are controlled and staff and command posts are located. There are also kitchens, dining rooms, functioning sewage systems, sleeping quarters, garages for vehicles, and even a gym.
https://x.com/FriaUkraina/status/2050847107087491374
We have probably sold all our bunkers and underground constructions so that they would never be needed again?
Yes, most of it is probably gone.
Some have been sold. – Can be reclaimed through purchase/expropriation.
Some have been decommissioned and sealed. – Can be restored and renovated.
New underground facilities and installations can be built.
What is needed? – Resources, will, and ingenuity. – the last two ingredients are not expensive but unfortunately all too often somewhat rare.
Expropriation, love it 🤩🤩🤩
“The Coast Guard has made a new raid against a sanctioned vessel off Trelleborg. This is written by the Minister for Civil Defense, Carl-Oskar Bohlin (M).
On Sunday, the Coast Guard boarded another vessel southwest of Trelleborg.
According to the Minister for Civil Defense Carl-Oskar Bohlin (M), the vessel is suspected to be part of the Russian shadow fleet. On the platform X, the minister writes: “The boarding took place in Swedish territorial waters just outside Trelleborg around 2 p.m. and was carried out in close cooperation between the Coast Guard and the relevant authorities.””
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/skane/kustbevakningen-bordat-fartyg-utanfor-trelleborg
“⚡ Russia has modified the design of its Iranian-origin Shahed-136 drones, known as “Geran-2,” to enable the launch of short-range air-to-air missiles.”
https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/russia-upgrades-shahed-drone-with-new-fuselage-to-mount-r-60-air-to-air-missiles-18434
Off-Topic
Came across this which I hadn’t seen before. A bit funny, but also clear that they are just trying to flirt with the believers by pretending to be one themselves, to gain votes.
“USA’s Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth confused the Bible with Tarantino’s film ‘Pulp Fiction’ during a service at the Pentagon, writes Variety.
During his speech earlier this week, the Secretary of Defense said that the soldiers who participated in the Combat Search and Rescue operation after the downed American pilot in Iran had themselves read a prayer.
– They call it CSAR 25:17, which I believe is meant to reflect Ezekiel 25:17, said Hegseth and urged the congregation to pray along with him.
But instead of reading the verse about vengeance from the Book of Ezekiel in the Old Testament, Hegseth actually read the fictional version recited by Samuel L. Jackson’s character in ‘Pulp Fiction’ before he shoots a man.”
Meanwhile in Russian Media.. “Economist Maslennikov on Russia’s budget deficit: “The situation is extraordinary.”” Note: I often share articles like this not necessarily because I agree with them, but so you can see what is being published in Russia.
https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social/post/3mkxfbsrcl22o
https://www.mk.ru/economics/2026/05/03/ekonomist-maslennikov-o-deficite-byudzheta-rossii-situaciya-neordinarnaya.html
“Russia has struck a dormitory in a residential block in Dnipro on 3 May, killing one person and injuring 11, the Dnipropetrovsk ODA reported. Six are hospitalized. A dormitory was damaged. People were sheltering in the basement during the attack. Among those treated on the spot: a 9-year-old girl.”
https://bsky.app/profile/euromaidanpress.bsky.social/post/3mkxfafdmod2h
A heavy drone equipped with a machine gun strikes Russian positions and, after firing, drops the empty magazines.
https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3mkxeezajx22e
Reloading itself 😳
Here you have something to forward to the kids when they complain – gosh 😳
https://x.com/pnerval/status/2050850818362888583?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Sorry, pretty sure that is pure fiction.
The image reeks of AI and the name seems to have been taken from a real person: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilda_Anderson_Erickson
You don’t like happy endings 😳
Yeah, love movies like Seven, No Country for Old Men, Dear Zachary, among others. 👍
Seven 🧐
Are those the kind of children called “dandelion children”? Wonder how the children turned out as adults. Nice story👍❣️
Believe it.
Never change a good story. I was going to tell about my goldfish that drowned. But one dubious story is enough for today.😐
This guy is all over social media nonstop.
Some Swedish artist you’ve never heard of who has gone global.
Not so bad when record labels are no longer the gatekeepers.
Good song and video too
Working on a big hit song now 👍
https://x.com/historyboutique/status/2050642414411403283?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Could be fake news and AI according to MXT, so be careful when you check, if you like it you might possibly be a bad person
Not everything on Twitter is AI, this time you were lucky! 😄
Right son actually let, full-length version of the video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6_mbnsh6VU
SVT about the video:
https://www.svt.se/kultur/darfor-sticker-yung-leans-nya-musikvideo-storm-ut
Wait until you hear Yung Johan No.1, it will blow your socks off 👍
Have a preschool class that dances
CRAZY FOOTAGE – just 1 Ukrainian FPV drone deletes 10 Russian idiots at once. They are cooked, quite literally. They know it’s gonna happen to them, so why do they keep coming here like that? Fucking idiots
https://bsky.app/profile/dim0kq.bsky.social/post/3mkxmb4fmb22n
❗️A strike has occurred on the territory of the Azovstal plant in the temporarily occupied Mariupol.
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mkxlix5ykk2o
“❗️A 🇺🇦Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet, using 🇺🇸American GBU-62 guided aerial bombs, destroys a concentration point of 🇷🇺Russian assault troops”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mkxnlrhcvs2n
Completely incredible with a beer in hand too 😳
MXT probably calls it AI but that record is starting to get scratched
https://x.com/ladymarketok/status/2050944900972028246?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Hold my ale 🍺
Ireland is supplying the Russian military with aluminum.
https://www.occrp.org/en/investigation/inside-the-aluminum-supply-chain-linking-irish-industry-to-russian-rockets
☢️
🇫🇮 Finland has removed legal barriers to nuclear cooperation, while 🇸🇪 Sweden is openly discussing its own nuclear umbrella.
This is a historic shift: the Nordic region is moving from non-nuclear restraint to active nuclear deterrence thinking.
https://defence24.com/geopolitics/nordic-nuclear-shift-finland-opens-sweden-seeks-its-own-umbrella#
Good morning!
1120 KWIA
6 Tanks
4 AFVs
113 Artillery systems
2 MLRS
2249 UAVs
11 UGVs
268 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
17 Special equipment
5 Cruise missiles
Slava Ukraini
https://bsky.app/profile/matsextrude.bsky.social/post/3mkyurhijys2d