Last week was fully booked with all-day meetings until 8:00 PM Tuesday – Friday, hence the radio silence, but the Italian finger-food lunches and the Spanish steakhouse were worth it.
Unfortunately, this will probably be a somewhat sour post because now the armed forces have to cut back on exercises and equipment while we have allocated budget for the French frigates – Putin has nothing to do with these decisions, but it’s hard to see that he wouldn’t be the happiest in Europe about it. Sweden is highly ranked as a threat by Russia, and if we put all the money into frigates with a ten-year construction time instead of building a drone weapon worth its name and train every day except Christmas Eve, that is very welcome for Putin.
Another frontline update will come on Friday.
I have stopped discussing with defense Twitter users, but when it comes to the Baltics, they apparently haven’t understood the Daugava line at all and think that 1,000 American soldiers in Lithuania are a sufficiently large buffer.
Then Finland and Norway decided to call Putin and discuss various things, contrary to Europe’s agreement to stonewall him. The call was, as expected, a failure with nothing of value. Unfortunately, Putin probably feels that cracks have appeared in the EU and that his hybrid war and playing for time in Ukraine are paying off. A fairly big diplomatic mistake in my opinion, perhaps only surpassed by the fact that the armed forces have to save so we get nice frigates sometime in the future.
If you have reached the acceptance that it is RU behind the unrest in Europe, possibly in cooperation with other countries, it will play out as follows –
When it comes to revolutions or demonstrations, the number of participants is always what matters. Thirty old pensioners with homemade signs and walkers will never achieve the impact they seek, even if they believe so because their sight and hearing are so impaired that they only see silent shadows and the demonstration is nationwide for them.
The organizations behind will move the protests to the countries where they get the best results – I believe it pays off for governments to hit hard, early, and show leadership.
The welfare and high-tax countries in Europe have, after all, agreed with their citizens to take over the monopoly on violence, and then the citizens should be protected from looting, assault, riots, and rapes – it is part of the whole package and the social contract that has been accepted even if that connection is not entirely clear to everyone today.
Apparently, over 3,000 stores have been looted in France, so quite extensive with many hard-working low-income earners now going bankrupt personally.
France is a socialist country where over 60% of tax revenue goes into welfare, so there isn’t much injustice there beyond some succeeding better in working life than others, which is a natural law you cannot legislate away, just as some get sicker than others or get better/worse grades in school – there is therefore no reason for revolution, and those who take a mild view of what is now unfolding have got it wrong. We have the usual gang in Sweden with Göran at the forefront who still see a bit of revolutionary romanticism in this. Our national icon has kept quiet after the first video where she happily supported full revolution, so I don’t know what she has been up to the past week, maybe she understood the damage to optics and the brand?
If a country is perceived as weak or paralyzed, the organizations quickly move their operations there because they are part of a network throughout Europe. Then they bus in demonstrators who get to run wild beyond the country’s own bright future that is available.
As said – it’s about getting the volumes on board, and right now they are testing everywhere, but baton blows and mass arrests dampen the will for revolution, especially if promised looting does not occur for the high school students and they are either expelled from the country for life or receive significant prison sentences.
Spain and the UK are probably in a bad position, both have governments that feel it is their side that has taken to the streets for a fundamentally good cause, so they drag their feet without perhaps fully understanding what is rolling in. Their concern is about right-wing extremists and fascists, so they are a bit colorblind right now. It was the same gang that championed Sanchez when he abandoned the residents of Ceuta in something that is inexplicable to me, as he shortly after fully used the monopoly on violence to crack down on demonstrations for safety and security in Ceuta.
Since the UK sends all the Storm Shadow missiles they produce to combat high-value targets deep inside Russia, revolutionary riots are almost guaranteed as revenge – they will be very hard hit.
Russia wants chaos in Europe, so all countries are legitimate targets except their direct allies Bulgaria, Serbia, and Slovakia.
They will try France for a good while, but I think the country has acted responsibly regarding the protests – the first weekend low-impact and the second weekend hitting hard with everything they have. If they continue at this pace, they might stamp out the grass fire before it takes hold.
Germany has a very tough riot police, very nasty, and if they really get going, it won’t be fun to stand with a ski mask and a TV in your arms on some backstreet in Berlin when they show up around the corner with a generous mandate behind them.
Portugal will just deploy the military and Meloni as well – both countries show decisiveness, and from the Italian X accounts, only paratroopers are marching in step right now.
We have nothing in Sweden yet, which surprises me a bit, but they wanted to get rid of the Tidö coalition, so maybe they have decided that nationwide protests will give the Tidö coalition another four years?
I think Spain, France, and the UK will be hardest hit by the “revolution 2026”. Have you noticed that they are trying to drum in dates as historic, “October 17” made the rounds. Then there is a bit of a color revolution where the color is black clothing and the flag to gather under is never the country’s flag that supports them.
Then they are also making a revolution against socialist parties in these countries, which is a bit ironic, and also in a high-tax welfare society in the world’s richest countries, so everyone who feels the cause is good, even if it goes a bit wrong, should quickly recalibrate as we said above.
Now in the coming months, we will see if governments’ responses are sufficient or not; if the will is not there in politics or the judiciary to prosecute, it can quickly get out of control when the masses feel that impunity prevails.
Apparently only students in Belarus, Slovakia, Russia, and Bulgaria do not want to make a revolution and have it good – can some sensible journalist make that connection soon just like with the forest fires where there was hardly any burning in these countries last summer.
You haven’t seen steps 2, 3, 4… yet, by the way, we have criminal gangs’ wave of robberies and damn religious ones left besides that the majority society has finally had enough of all the looting and no protection for all the taxes they pay, so they take to the streets. How far it goes is directly linked to how quickly countries crack down on this.
Moody’s refrained from downgrading France, which was a fair play – it would have had immediate effects on the EU area, I guess?
My mantra – this was how it was in the 1920s-30s where constant threats of communist revolution drove liberals, centrists, and the right to vote further and further right until we got authoritarian fascist governments instead, and I sincerely hope we don’t get there. As soon as the goalposts move, individual freedom no longer applies and you can shout all you want about your rights, but when the monopoly on violence doesn’t care, you fall silent after a while and hope to survive. And then they can, if they want, move the positions even further – Europe is absolutely not immune to this even if we think so after many years of peace. Now everyone also owns their homes, and when the Enforcement Authority and the Tax Agency start meddling with them over some fabricated issue, even the loudest will fall silent.
As recently as the 1970s, several countries in Europe had military juntas, for example, and communist terror groups murdered politicians or bombed in general.
Putin has now taken the negotiations a step further – Europe must also be pacified. He doesn’t say it outright but that is what he aims for together with Trump. You can be sure that NATO as it was in 1997 is what he wants.
We have discussed this countless times, but if there is a ceasefire now, this is our 1938 and Russia is still quite on the defensive and needs a fake victory from Trump not to collapse – this is an absolute truth that will not change with good intentions or fine words from Europe.
Of all the cheating we’ve seen since 2022 where the US and Europe have helped Russia out of one predicament after another, this would be by far the worst thing that could happen because now Ukraine has the wind in its sails and is causing serious damage.
Already in the autumn of 2022, this could have been over because Putin stood with the entire VDV on the western side of the Dnieper in Kherson and Zalizhny planned an attack vector down the eastern bank of the Dnieper into undefended terrain and simply encircle the 28,000-strong VDV who would have had to surrender en masse. Putin called the entire West and threatened with nuclear weapons so Zalizhny was not allowed to save his country from another four years of war. Then Kursk 2023 and finally Kursk 2024, not to mention that UA was forced to attack fortress Tokmak in the summer of 2023. It was then said that “if they get to fight it out maybe they are ready to negotiate afterwards” – cynical.
Europe will not get such a chance again by the way – we can get Belarus over to us quite easily through democratic elections in the country because the citizens want to join the EU, we can also without much effort give Kaliningrad some kind of deal against full demilitarization and then a new Russia divided into about a dozen new countries so the threat becomes significantly smaller in the future. This is within reach.
Russia is, after all, together with China, the last major brutal colonial powers in the world that have so far managed to avoid being singled out by the various movements otherwise eager about inherited guilt. Why today’s colonized ethnic groups are not the most important to fight for is beyond my understanding.
Ukraine will tie the six surrounding oblasts to itself and then through its link to the EU have trade with them so that the area of success and happiness becomes quite large. As soon as a new strong leader rises in Russia, GUR will be there to liberate him.
The alternative is a Russia that feels that a round two might go better because they tricked their way to a 1938. Who will be Chamberlain remains to be seen, I long considered Macron as that candidate.
It is my conviction that very soon the next 70-80 years for Europe will be decided – will we be the light or hope that everything will just solve itself as long as we don’t move.
Ukraine has almost had to drag us wildly fencing and screaming to where we are today, we are not the least bit grateful and have taken every chance to slip away.
To all happy optimists, I throw in WW1, WW2, the Cold War together with 2014-2022 closely followed by 2022 – 2026.
So far, Europe has done most things wrong, we have also done everything wrong since the Cold War where we have overregulated ourselves totally in the EU with madness before we have even made our green transition. Because how do you think you reduce CO2 emissions without first building what we need for the transition that during construction time causes enormous CO2 emissions?
Instead of becoming a powerhouse that pumps out cheap electricity and builds everything for the union’s 450 million inhabitants, we buy everything from China with higher emissions than if we produced ourselves. This is because we have imposed price-increasing mandates on our own producers but do not have the same requirements on Chinese products so China gets a competitive advantage.
Not manufacturing but instead buying everything on credit is rarely a success story and to be able to manufacture products at a reasonable price you need volume, raw materials, and cheap electricity – only the US and China have that.
Then we buy security from the US because we have disarmed thinking there is eternal peace but apparently still experience a great threat that no one saw coming. Everyone who saw it coming since 2007 has been accused of warmongering and had their careers destroyed. Researcher Martin Kragh is probably the latest example of character assassination in Sweden?
Or The Great Regiment Death which was a colorful still life in how to permanently eradicate hard-to-learn knowledge and then have to start over from scratch.
Then we stand there in our completely self-inflicted mess and feel that the best we can do is try to buy peace from Russia by sacrificing Ukraine.
The only reason this transaction has not gone through is that Ukraine flatly refused even though they have had everyone against them and the only times we start to look a bit happier is when things go badly for Ukraine and we think they will give up.
That we now in 2025-2026 have started discussing how to get out of this deep hole we have dug for ourselves entirely on our own is at best belated.
Ukraine stands there trying to get us to choose the light blue and yellow door but we glare angrily at them and do not dare trust that behind it is soothing elevator music and constant early summer – Johan No.1 can report that it is exactly as bright and beautiful behind that door as Ukraine says it is, a field of sunflowers and dead Russian bastards.
There have been some increased controls at airports in Europe without announcement as far as I have read and now there are warnings of a sharp upswing in the Russian hybrid war against us with the focus on the Baltics.
Unfortunately, there is also a peace proposal on the table where Europe is not directly resisting as it should, but hopefully something is happening beneath the surface. The Brits seem to have at least gotten tired and are giving UA all the Storm Shadow missiles they have, and the French are sending their hammers. Not to forget the Gripen that is on its way.
Now or never
All-in
The decisive match
Call it what you want, but now we are at the point no living politician wants to be – you have to make tough decisions when all curves point downwards and everything is unknown.
Have you ever tried to climb the stairs to the funhouse and if you take two wrong steps, you end up hanging screaming from the handrail and see one of your shoes fly to the top – that’s what it feels like to be a politician right now in Europe.
Everything is collapsing around in riots, the opposition is shouting for new elections, fellow politicians are showing an article on their phones about that Tinder account you thought was super secret, and Aftonbladet runs a full double-page spread about your affair with the neighbor two houses down that you really sneaked around with.
Did you know that Russia and China have bought some of the most common adult dating sites everyone uses in the West, often the more refined ones?
My constant – weak politicians/strong politicians has some relevance. Now incumbent governments must make decisions that are best for the country and the group of comrades we have chosen to be part of – Europe.
They absolutely must not work for others’ interests whether it is the arms industry, foreign powers, rosy revolutionary groups, ideologies, the USA, Israel, Russia, Iran, or China.
You have to feel that the rest of the government wants the same thing – that your country and Europe shall get through this difficult time and come out on top. Stick together.
Never miss a good crisis – there is a whole formidable undergrowth already planning how to exploit this crisis in the best way for their own gain and the offers are surely pouring in. Here it is about having integrity – weak vs strong politicians.
If I have managed that in a whole working life in an environment where everyone tries to buy everyone, there should at least be some politician left who does not have an agenda. It is rare to keep your job in the work conflicts you have chosen to take, but I also discovered that memory is short so there are always more chances. The only ones who never forgive are those whose careers crashed because I did not keep quiet and unfortunately they sometimes exist with a new employer and give the reference from hell when asked. The world is not fair at all and whistleblowers’ lives are rarely good after doing the right thing.
Russia, the USA, and maybe China are several steps ahead of Europe and have infiltrated us for a long time.
We already saw this in 2022 and that is why I have basically written almost every day about the Ukraine war – it was so obvious we would come here and that the easiest was to fully support Ukraine to avoid coming here.
Now we did not do that and we came here, to the beginning of the great war of our time which for our part can still be stamped out in our geographical neighborhood thanks to Ukraine refusing to give up despite having everyone against them.
But the global conflict is probably underway now and then the best outcome for us in Europe is that we clean up our own backyard and then let the conflict play out in Asia and some proxy arenas.
A bit boring when that is the best outcome but that’s how it is unless China enters a full financial crisis and becomes occupied internally. Trump has two more years to start a war and he has already managed to light up the entire MENA region before halftime.
For those of you who think this is exaggerated, I have noticed one thing over the years that have passed, they keep moving the goalposts and just keep saying the same thing – that seems a bit exaggerated, it can’t be like that.
The above description is a few years old and the only difference is that we have now reached fully active hybrid warfare in Europe and the exit queue at Dubai airport is miles long.
Ukraine just tells truth after truth every day without anyone bothering to listen, completely incomprehensible. At the NATO meeting 2023, Zelensky was collectively scolded and called ungrateful. Three years later we are on the brink of war because we slowed him down. Pure self-harm behavior.
They are legends anyway and probably the only country Putin would not have attacked but now Trump and Putin together with all kinds of subversive elements in Europe are fighting to bring down Ukraine so Putin can then attack Europe.
Anyway, we are back to full writing, saw that some paying subscribers have disappeared and if it was the Dengamle chapter that made the cup overflow, I hope you find your way back because you will like the next chapter. Then he has enlisted in the Carolean army mostly to see Russia which he has heard so much good about. Was he disappointed or not – I won’t reveal that, full source protection applies but if the completely unrelated DenGamle wants to say something on johanno1.se he can of course do so.
The Europe we are used to is under a coordinated attack and history has not been exactly honorable for us during the 20th century. Since the whole playbook has been reused, there is reason to worry that this will continue to escalate until we put a stop to it, preferably before all Putin-controlled right and left parties have gained their own majority around Europe and formed an alliance with Russia through parliamentary votes.
Reminds me of this one which is good.
https://ukrainakriget.github.io
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
Russian losses 2026-10-29
Again lower than we have been used to recently. But we also see in the morning report a slightly lower number of battles and the ratio has decreased somewhat. Perhaps Ukraine’s recent offensives have slowed down a bit. Or maybe the ceasefire at Oleshky is having an effect? I don’t know how intense the fighting has been near that city.
SLAVA UKRAINI
Ukrainian General Staff Morning Report:
Operational information as of 08:00 on October 29, 2026, on the Russian invasion
Glory to Ukraine!
The 1709th day of the Russian Federation’s full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine has begun.
The Ukrainian defenders continue the systematic fight against the enemy, effectively resisting on all front sections and inflicting significant losses on the occupiers.
In total, the Russian attackers’ losses over the past day amounted to 1,560 personnel. Additionally, one tank, five armored combat vehicles, 25 artillery systems, four rocket artillery systems, four ground-based missile systems, one aircraft (confirmed from a previous period), 1,614 unmanned aerial vehicles, 272 vehicles, and one unit of special equipment were neutralized.
A total of 189 combat engagements were recorded over the past day.
Yesterday, the enemy’s air force carried out 79 airstrikes, including with 257 guided aerial bombs. Additionally, the attackers used 9,135 kamikaze drones and conducted 2,439 shellings against communities and our troops’ positions.
In the Sumy region, the communities of Mala Korchakivka, Luzhky, Pysarivka, Nova Sich, Ulanove, Yastrubyne, Bachivsk, Kucherivka, Buniachyne, and Myropillia were subjected to artillery shelling. Furthermore, the areas around Vilna Sloboda, Khrapivshchyna, Mykilske, and Yastrubyne in the Sumy region were hit by airstrikes.
Over the past day, the defense forces’ aviation, missile units, and artillery struck two areas with concentrations of enemy personnel and a command post for unmanned aerial vehicles.
In the northern Slobozhansky section, the attackers launched four attacks in the areas around Tovstodubove, Ulanove, and Ryzhivka.
In the southern Slobozhansky section, Ukrainian units repelled seven enemy attacks. The occupiers tried to advance in the areas around Ternova, Starytsia, Ozerne, and Khrypuny.
In the Kupyansk section, the enemy attacked once in the area around Novoosynove.
Attempts to advance were stopped in the Lyman section, where our defenders repelled five attacks in the areas around Nadiia, Kolodiazi, Lyman, and Dibrova.
In the Sloviansk section, the attackers carried out two attacks in the areas around Zakitne and Kryva Luka.
In the Kramatorsk section, the enemy conducted no assault operations over the past day.
In the Kostyantynivka section, 18 attacks were recorded. The occupiers conducted assault operations in the areas around Kostyantynivka, Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Novoselivka, Rozkishne, Dovha Balka, Novohrуhorivka, Mykolaipillia, Novopavlivka, and Petrivka.
In the Pokrovsk section, our defenders stopped 42 attacks. The enemy attacked in the areas around Serhiivka, Molodetske, and Novopavlivka and conducted assaults towards Toretske, Kucheriv Yar, Sofiivka, Vilne, Zolotyi Kolodiaz, Nove Shakhove, Stepy, Novyi Donbas, Chernihivka, Sviatohorivka, Dobropillia, Novohrishyne, and Udachne.
In the Oleksandrivka section, our soldiers repelled an enemy attack in the area around Kalynivske.
In the Huljajpole section, nine enemy attacks were repelled in the areas around Kosivtseve, Nove Zaporizhzhia, Verkhnia Tersa, Huliaipilske, Bilohiria, and Charivne.
In the Orikhiv section, our defenders repelled an enemy attack in the area around Novoiakovlivka.
No active enemy operations were recorded in the Prydniprovsk section.
In the Volyn and Polissya sections, the situation remains largely unchanged. No signs have been detected that the enemy is forming offensive force groupings.
Every day we stand faithfully in defense of our country and fight for the safety of our families and a peaceful future for all Ukraine.
Join the defense forces! Together we will prevail! Glory to Ukraine!
Comment:
90 localized attacks out of a total of 189 give 99 unlocalized, and thus the ratio is 99 / 90 ≈ 1.10.
** 12:34 am (Updated: October 29, 2026 8:03 am)
Moscow faces over 600 Ukrainian drones overnights, flights grounded at major airports.
According to the mayor, over 100 drones have been shot down en route to Moscow during the night thus far. **
https://kyivindependent.com/moscow-comes-under-drone-fire-overnight-grounding-flights-at-major-airports/
** oscow Hit by Massive Drone Attack as Airports Restrict Flights
In brief: Moscow and its surrounding region came under a large-scale drone attack overnight on Oct. 28-29, with Russian officials claiming to have intercepted at least 74 drones approaching the capital. The attack disrupted operations at three Moscow-area airports, forced two flights from Turkey to turn back and prompted reports of explosions near Naro-Fominsk. **
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/88487
Good post today, Johan! 👍
When it comes to the “student uprising” in France, however, I think it will calm down. We will probably have one or maybe two more rowdy weekends, but then I think they will get tired of it. It’s probably exciting and easy to get caught up in, but when you actually have it pretty good and what you are demonstrating for is not life-or-death, most people get tired of it quite quickly. Moreover, the rest of the population has shown their disgust at the looting and vandalism, and I guess that most of those who demonstrate actually distance themselves from that.
Sure, some have probably become radicalized, but if you don’t (as you suggest) get the masses on board, it will be difficult.
It’s different from, for example, Georgia, where people are demonstrating for a free democratic society without Russian influence. When it comes to something really important, there is also the energy to demonstrate for a long time.
But of course, that doesn’t mean the danger is over.
They will probably try to incite new groups to get them out on the streets and cause trouble. Then those professionals in black hoodies and balaclavas can once again step in and take the opportunity to destroy and bring along the fringe who are only out to loot and grab. Those who don’t care at all what the demonstrations are really about.
I think some union in France has called a general strike at the beginning of November, which might also escalate into chaos.
Agree with MXT. The post is interesting. Speaking of France. Le Havre had to be rebuilt from scratch after the war. In this very well-functioning and in every way pleasant city, the French communists then ruled after the war and at least until the mid-70s (Now I have no idea). I think it was the same in Brest, which also had to be rebuilt. I myself am not a communist but was impressed by these cities with clean, nice streets and squares and how well-organized the cities were. The French communists were not loyal to Moscow but were an independent party that was not controlled by Stalin.
** ❗️At night in occupied Luhansk, Lugacom was attacked. There are internet disruptions in the city. ** Video:
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3myyohshwjs2z
** ❗️Also, the Defense Forces of 🇺🇦Ukraine attacked 🇷🇺Bashkortostan. The Bashkir Soda Company in Sterlitamak may have come under attack. This is one of the largest chemical complexes in the Russian Federation and the only producer in the country of terephthaloyl chloride, which is used, in particular, for the manufacture of armor materials. Aviation fuel is also stored there. ** Videos.
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3myyox5aejk2b
** ❗️After an attack by Ukrainian drones, a fire is being recorded in the area of the military airfield “Marinovka” in the 🇷🇺Volgograd region. **
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3myyokz6ndk2z
Better late than never..
** Estonia to build 150 bunkers along Russian border.
In response to an increase in Russian aggression in the region, the Baltic states have placed a strong emphasis on strategic readiness in recent years, encouraging civilian preparedness and ramping up defense spending. **
https://kyivindependent.com/estonia-to-build-150-bunkers-along-russian-border/
** No Energy Ceasefire With Russia, but Oleshky Truce Brings Hope, Zelensky Says
In brief: President Volodymyr Zelensky said the proposed energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia never took effect because Moscow continued striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
However, he welcomed initial progress under a separate US-brokered humanitarian truce in Russian-occupied Oleshky, saying even a few days without major attacks could help civilians and evacuation efforts. He also discussed upcoming trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi and the possibility of negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. **
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/88489
** A Russian disinformation campaign cloned Euromaidan Press to blame Ukraine for Russia’s own strike on Kramatorsk (we took the fake down)
Researchers tie the fake to Storm-1516, a Russian influence operation that has overtaken RT and Sputnik by cloning trusted news brands to publish fabricated stories under their names. **
https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/10/29/a-russian-disinformation-campaign-cloned-euromaidan-press-to-blame-ukraine-for-russias-own-strike-on-kramatorsk-we-took-the-fake-down/
** A Russian cruise missile that doesn’t match its name fell almost intact in Odesa Oblast
A box-shaped body, a V-tail, composite skin: Ukrainian specialists can now study Russia’s new design up close. **
https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/10/28/a-russian-cruise-missile-that-doesnt-match-its-name-fell-almost-intact-in-odesa-oblast/
Good.
** South Korea increased imports of Russian coal by 34% from January to August, up 34% from the same period in 2025. It attributed the 18 million metric ton rise to increased coal-fired power generation to offset nuclear power losses following the expiration of reactor licenses. **
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/88470
🫡
** Canadian volunteer Jesse Adams was killed by a Russian FPV drone while rescuing animals in Kramatorsk. Animal Rescue Kharkiv says hundreds of animals are alive because of him. Thank you, Jesse. Ukraine will remember you. 💔💙💛 **
https://bsky.app/profile/meanwhileua.bsky.social/post/3myyoa4utl42q
** ❗️During the night, Ukrainian forces shot down 97 (30 of them jet-powered) out of 112 (40 of them jet-powered) Russian UAVs. **
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3myynx2lpek2z
30/40 — full speed on MiG, Mirage, and F-16
Thank you Johan nr1 for today’s wise reflection once again. I really wish that Europe’s leaders, to a greater extent than I believe is the case, read the blog and take to heart what they should do to preserve peace and crush the Russian bastards. Unfortunately, I also agree that we probably have the worst ahead of us. Next week’s midterm elections in the USA will probably not result in the outcome we hope for. The orangutan in the White House will take big steps to develop the dictatorship he strives to impose. Sad and extremely ominous for planet Earth.
I am also a bit worried about what Trump might come up with regarding the midterm election..
If you are to believe the newspapers, it seems that the Democrats may have messed up in Alaska.
The Democrats appear to have encouraged an independent candidate with a similar name to the Republican (Daniel instead of Dan?) to run in the Senate election. Just the rumor can give the Republicans momentum.
Yes, it seems so.
“During his campaign meetings ahead of the midterm elections, Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that the Democrats are cheating and singled out individual election workers. But with the demand for prosecution against Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola, he is taking it a step further, writes AP.
“This indicates that he is preparing to use his presidential power to try to overturn a possible election defeat,” the news agency writes.
According to the New York Times, Peltola’s staff was tasked with recruiting a person named Dan Sullivan to confuse voters and split the votes in the primary.
The revelation has given Trump a unique opportunity to shift focus away from the poor poll numbers and high fuel prices, writes CNN’s Stephen Collinson in an analysis.
“The Democrats in Alaska gave Donald Trump exactly what he wanted.”
https://omni.se/analyser-demokraterna-gav-trump-precis-det-han-ville-ha/a/zlq0J1
“Donald Trump demands that the Democrats’ Senate candidate in Alaska, Mary Peltola, be prosecuted following the revelation that her campaign was involved in recruiting a candidate with the same name as the sitting Republican senator Dan Sullivan, report American media.
Last week, the president also instructed the Department of Justice to contest a potential Republican loss in the Alaska election as a preventive measure.
“Peltola should feel the legal and political consequences of what she has done,” the president then wrote on Truth Social.
According to the revelation in the New York Times, Peltola’s staff was tasked with recruiting a person named Dan Sullivan to confuse voters and split the votes in the primary.”
https://omni.se/trump-kraver-atal-efter-sullivan-avslojandet/a/X9VoLx
If Peltola had a bit of integrity, she would have said no and stopped the spin doctors from the party headquarters.
This is likely to cost her the Senate seat.
🤮
Yes, a high risk of that.
** Russians film the moment a Ukrainian mid-range strike drone attacks a group of Russian infantry and military vehicles. **
https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3myynylhr6c26
USA did a good thing!
** The United States has delivered a new batch of specialized demining gear valued at $7.9 million to the State Special Transport Service of Ukraine.
According to the US Embassy in Ukraine, humanitarian landmine clearance directly aligns with American security and economic interests by creating safe conditions for US businesses to operate on Ukrainian territory, Hromadske reported on October 28. **
https://united24media.com/world/us-delivers-79-million-in-demining-equipment-to-ukrainian-sappers-23899
Good.. even if it is now to create secure conditions for American companies… They certainly have plans for Ukraine’s natural resources, both with Ukraine and with Russia.
And this is also good.
**US Will Not Demand Territorial Concessions From Ukraine at Abu Dhabi Talks, FT Reports
The United States is expecting to make progress during upcoming three-way talks with Ukraine and Russia scheduled for November in Abu Dhabi.
These details were reported on October 27 by the Financial Times, citing two sources familiar with the matter. While American officials previously connected future security guarantees for Ukraine to land concessions, they are no longer pressing Kyiv to give up territory. **
https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/us-will-not-demand-territorial-concessions-from-ukraine-at-abu-dhabi-talks-ft-reports-23897
That is also good. Indicates that someone in the administration is beginning to realize that Ukraine is not the weaker party after all, despite the rambling from Putin’s man in the White House.
We’ll see then how it sounds after Putin has repeated his instructions to him.
** ❗️According to the Associated Press, the Pentagon refused to investigate restrictions on the Starlink and military Starshield systems in Ukraine that, according to Ukrainian officials, complicated the interception of Russian drones. A bipartisan group of nine U.S. senators (four Republicans and five Democrats) demanded that the Pentagon’s Inspector General investigate the disruptions. He stated that the matter should be handled by the U.S. Air Force, which did not respond to either journalists’ or the senators’ inquiries. **
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3myyo4l62vc2z
Regarding the developments in Europe, it is probably obvious that the Russians are fueling the situation.
A development that would not have had nearly as much available fuel to ignite if naive liberal politicians and media had not wanted to play the humanitarian continent.
A good article from 2016 about this and insight into what is needed can be found here https://ledarsidorna.se/ett-rad/#google_vignette
“The talks from Lebanon are now returning after my latest trip there. Above all, the advice I would pass on to our political leaders but which I, and many others, shy away from. I now remember how the little man, the minister who survived a twenty-year-long civil war, fixed his eyes on me and said:
‘Take one piece of advice. Forget about the rule of law for a few years. Forget about human rights. You must enter every house and start from the top down and clear out what you call no-go zones.
If you want to be kind, intern them indefinitely until they understand how to behave, but if you have the opportunity, throw them out, regardless of the fate that awaits them. It will save you eons of time and other suffering.
If you don’t believe us, that is your problem rather than you can imagine.'”
I must say that I am grateful that they have not chosen to undermine legal certainty and ignore human rights. Hardly the right way to solve the problems, and once you start, it can end up anywhere.
That’s how it is, but how long is it in the worst case until it would be needed?
Regardless, it’s worth considering the risks of naive politics, the belief that “everyone wants to be like us,” and how do you stop it in time given how things are developing?
Of course, we can eventually end up where there is total chaos and that is the only thing left, but here in Sweden it is probably still a long way off.
Yes, one could say we are naive in many ways, applies to both this and that (Russia, for example) but I do think we are starting to get it pretty right after all.
I would wish for significantly more resources for the police and perhaps occasionally increased powers without compromising safety. Then it is also about working more preventively in various ways but even there, schools and social services among others also lack time and resources.
Off-Topic, government formation
“The prolonged government formation seems to be playing straight into the hands of the Tidö parties. 45 days after the parliamentary election, the right-wing parties receive 51.1 percent of voter support in Omnipoll, Omni’s aggregation of four opinion polls. Support for the red-green parties simultaneously drops to 47.6 percent.
Above all, it is the Moderates who are pulling ahead in the polls. In Omnipoll, support for the party is now at 24.1 percent, compared to the election result of 19.9. At the same time, the Liberals fall just below the parliamentary threshold with 3.9 percent in the aggregation.”
https://omni.se/nio-dagar-till-val-sa-ar-laget-i-opinionen-just-nu/a/zOzVrb
** Unbelievably cool: Ukrainian air defense has destroyed two Russian Kalibr missiles with one Hawk air defense missile! After the first missile was hit, the explosion led to the second one detonating. **
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3myytflmbxk2g
Regarding Russian hybrid warfare, I can recommend the always wise Minna Ålander’s latest text:
https://sceeus.se/en/publications/russias-warfare-in-europe-is-becoming-less-hybrid/
“Several European countries are also either producing drones and other equipment directly for Ukraine, or hosting Ukrainian companies’ production lines, which has made Europe a “rear area” in the war. Given that Ukraine can now reach Russia’s rear with its long-range drones and missiles, the Kremlin therefore seems to view disrupting the European rear as a risk worth taking.”
Thanks for the tip, worth reading! 👍
😡
** Breaking: Russia strikes train at Dnipro station with jet-powered drone, at least 13 dead.
Despite the air raid alert and announcements of a heightened threat, people remained on the platform, Ukrainian railways added. **
https://kyivindependent.com/breaking-russia-strikes-train-at-dnipro-station-with-jet-powered-drone-at-least-13-dead/
Fake news. Don’t believe what you see.
We are swimming in cheap wind power electricity.
Nuclear power was shut down due to unprofitability. And there is absolutely no capacity problem.
At least that is the gist of what I hear and read among comments on social media…
Average price of just over 170 öre in SE3 tomorrow. Excluding VAT, tax, and transmission. Not exactly a clear sign of surplus.
Averaged 76 öre so far in October, also not a sign of abundance.
However, personal quarter price of 14 öre so far in October, excluding the price for batteries, so probably around 114 öre ☹️
We are many who remember when nuclear power let us bathe in cheap electricity.
https://www.sverigesradio.se/avsnitt/nar-karnkraften-lat-oss-bada-i-billig-el
For example, all of Sweden’s companies that could then export their electricity-intensive products at a competitive price and prosperity was high in Sweden 😐
Those were glorious times!
[shows myself]
this is supposed to be the best compilation of ua losses, as far as I understand.
2025 was a bad year and 2026 looks like it will be just as bad.. I am not at all satisfied with the ratio… 😄
2026: 4K/month. With Russian losses averaging 40K/month (in October up to 50K), the ratio is 1/10. Russia’s population is 143M, Ukraine’s population is 37M, which is a ratio of 1/4. So currently, attrition is in Ukraine’s favor. And the rest of Europe’s 400M+ inhabitants have not even begun mobilization. NATO is not engaged.
Jo Borjesson, as far as Russia is concerned, we are probably already at war with them.
Moscow burns every week now.
Lebanon is a good example HW because they lost their country completely.
The balance between not going too hard is only good until you lose.
Where that limit lies is a bit difficult to say of course, but RU is putting in everything they can anyway.
Yes, the Russians have nothing to lose from chaos in (Western) Europe.
Moreover, the country went from rich and prosperous to a gangster regime.
Lebanon had its golden age in the 60s, Beirut was the Paris of the Middle East, with a large banking sector and a lot of tourism. Then after the Six-Day War, a number of refugees arrived, and in the early 70s Arafat came with his group who had been expelled from Jordan, the rest is history.
History of Lebanon – Wikipedia
Is it Ulf’s turn now?
What happens if C votes blank/abstains?
What happens if C does this throughout the entire term except for the important yes-no questions?
It will probably be Ulf’s turn soon. In theory, the red-greens’ fear of a loss in a new election could make them gather under the gallows and vote for Thand Ringqvist. And V and MP abstain from sitting in the government.
I have felt for a while that if the Speaker puts Magdalena first again and Ulf last, it could be interpreted as trying to favor M, especially if S ended up twice in a row.
Now I can’t keep track of this anymore since a probe is apparently not the same as a vote, but we are probably coming to the point that it’s Ulf’s turn?
Is it then the second vote and that one will be Ulf’s?
You can’t really accuse anyone of positioning in that case since C could have gone to a vote.
After that, it will probably be S again and then someone will get the last attempt – not S?
This one was a bit interesting C Lagarde farewell speech 😳
https://x.com/lagarde/status/2115746242491723810?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Tactically smart. She takes one for the team and will probably land on her feet.
By announcing it already now, the European Council, led by António Costa, has time to start the process of appointing a successor while the pro-European Macron is still securely in power in France.
Moreover, there is speculation that Macron and the centrist parties want to try to convince Lagarde to play a role in rallying voters, or alternatively that she wants to help in election campaigns to counter the far right in the election, even though she herself has ruled out running as a presidential candidate.
Oh, I was mostly thinking of a bandaged face so it looked like she had been assaulted to the point of resignation 😶
You had a very deep analysis 👍
😅
Maybe she had a duel with LePen?
Or le Bic as she should probably be called in France.
…And sorry, I’ll find my own way out.
Well, for me, it can gladly be the Tidö Alliance for another four years, they have pursued good policies and now Simona is out tweeting about research and schools, for example.
Most of what has been communicated from the other side is that the Nazis did not win, nuclear power will be discontinued, and then they obviously defend incompetent members of parliament to the very end.
But yes, there is also some internal debate in SD about what is Swedish, so they have dived straight into navel-gazing – it could always happen that they also dig in their heels and demand 22 ministers or something?
I can live with rampant Nazi accusations in the media for another four years if it becomes the Tidö Alliance with C and SD as supporting parties.
I think the definition of Nazi became a bit diluted when the female Palestinian descendant in L became Sweden’s hated Nazi, I lost some respect for the selection of Nazis then when it drifted away from the definition I was used to.
The Nazis may have also finally made some form of contemporary adjustment and decided to be more inclusive?
That is how the movement eventually explodes from within (a bit like FI), when one faction thinks it’s totally fine that someone who wasn’t born a Nazi and is also Black and trans still sees themselves as a full-blooded Nazi. The other faction thinks the opposite, and the other 73 in other, of course completely unique ways.
** 😎🇺🇦❗️ They flew into the enemy position and captured two enemy scouts – operators of the 6th Rangers Regiment went behind the conventional front line and conducted a successful operation **
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3myzqnyhayc2f
** ❗️Units of the Ukrainian Naval Forces carried out a missile strike with the Neptune coastal missile system against the Marinovka airfield in Volgograd Oblast, destroying 2 Su-34 aircraft of the 11th Mixed Aviation Regiment. The Su-34 is a key platform of Russian tactical aviation for employing guided aerial bombs (KABs) against Ukrainian cities, positions of the Defense Forces, and frontline areas. The Ukrainian Navy continues**
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3myzqcog4es2o
Apparently totally messed up, now there will be a vote on Elisabeth TR on Monday and then it will probably be Ulf?
The Speaker does not seem to accept that one tries to sneak away and leave the exploratory mission, so he is pushing for a vote and it will probably be the same for Ulf.
Then the last vote will presumably be Magdalena again?
It would be fun if all parties to the right of the center voted for C but we probably won’t get that much fun.
Then C actually has to decide what they will do, if they are tough in round 3, it remains to lie flat in round 4 or call a new election.
Agree. Fun if Tidö votes for ETR.
However, that is hardly likely to happen.
I think that C will give in in the fourth round and let Magda with V(pk) in the government.
That various party leaders have the nerve to criticize the Speaker, when they themselves are the cause of it all! Go Speaker! Stop coddling and show that if you negotiate, you vote.
It would undeniably be quite the trolling if SD were to let ETR through. C, who promised that they absolutely never ever would do anything with SD’s mandate behind their back, or goodwill…
I wonder how they would handle that 😅
** ❗️Operators of the 🇺🇦6th Special Operations Forces Regiment “Rangers” crossed behind the conventional front line, attacked an enemy position, and captured two enemy reconnaissance personnel. ** Video:
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3myzpy6gudk2o
One thing you have to give our parliamentary parties – quite a few have shown integrity here.
The media mocks about red lines but V is reasonable in what they want.
S and C are also reasonable, not to let V in.
”Voting on Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist (C) is ridiculous, but the complaints are worse. No speaker in the world can save the red-greens from themselves – or from each other.”
https://www.expressen.se/kronikorer/viktor-barth-kron/norlen-borde-valt–kalle-anka-i-stallet/
**❗️Russia is deliberately targeting students: strike on dormitory of a vocational school in Dnipro **
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3myzopb2by22f
Do the Russians want to try to provoke some kind of student uprising in Ukraine as well? 🤬
**❗️Footage of yesterday’s attack by Russian naval drones on the container ship CONTSHIP JET off the coast of Bulgaria, filmed at close range. The vessel subsequently sank. ** Video:
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3myzoflo5c22o
If you have to choose between a C or S minority government, I’m not sure C wouldn’t be better 😀
** Russia killed two 15-year-old girls when its forces struck central Chernihiv in northern Ukraine. Another 25 people were injured, including four children. The youngest injured child is just 10 months old. 📷Ukraine’s State Emergency Service **
https://bsky.app/profile/euromaidanpress.bsky.social/post/3myznlyvd222z
Russian bastards, plain and simple 😈🤬
** Russian propagandist Solovyev calls for a massive escalation against Ukraine, Europe and the United Kingdom “that produce weapons used to strike our peaceful cities.” “We need to escalate – and do so forcefully. We need to take out the enemy. We need to destroy factories in Europe and the United Kingdom that produce weapons used to strike our peaceful cities. We need to destroy the transport carrying these weapons, shoot down aircraft, sink ships.” ** Video:
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3myzmwxevrk2n
Russia’s 143 million against Europe’s 500+ million. And they can hardly even match Ukraine’s 39 million inhabitants in the war of attrition, which is the only war Russia understands.
🎯
** Trump’s Russian Diesel Deal Fails to Lower US Prices as Fuel Costs Rise
The diesel agreement announced by US President Donald Trump and the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, has so far failed to lower diesel prices in the United States, with average prices instead rising slightly, The Wall Street Journal reported on October 28.
According to data cited by the Journal from the American Automobile Association, the average US diesel price reached $6.35 per gallon on October 28, up from $6.28 when Trump announced the agreement on October 9. …**
https://united24media.com/world/trumps-russian-diesel-deal-fails-to-lower-us-prices-as-fuel-costs-rise-23924
It was probably in return for Putin not providing intelligence to Iran. And to get diesel that way. But Venezuela? Isn’t that oil available? You can make diesel from it.
Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but the oil is of the extra-heavy crude type, which is both technically and politically (high sulfur content) complicated to refine into diesel.
American refineries are actually especially suited to handle heavy, sulfur-rich crude oil from Latin America. But aren’t they already operating at maximum capacity and exporting large quantities and making good profits from it?
Venezuela is probably the new 51st state I heard… the plan is probably to phase in Venezuela’s oil instead of Canada’s… for a bit better leverage in the negotiations?
So… Canada is going to be the 52nd state now…
It is not uncommon for it to take 10 years to expand the infrastructure for oil fields. This is not about fracking. Refiners are also set up for a specific oil quality, and that is not something that can be changed overnight. Oil and related services have also long been hated in the capital markets. Everyone is supposed to have an electric car anyway. For that reason, the entire existing oil industry is operating at maximum capacity and has no margins.
It was hardly anyone who seriously believed that it would affect the price even on the margin.
Krasnov is played by Putin and this was solely aimed at lifting the sanctions and normalizing relations.
** ❗️One of the results of the work of the 🇺🇦Ukrainian Defense Forces: a permanent deployment point of 🇷🇺Russian troops, communications equipment, and a warehouse with provisions, generators, and other property used to support Russian Federation assault units have been destroyed. ** Video:
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3myzlkxzwn22x
Good post Johan. Did the sports cap have GIF on it? Or maybe Brynäs?
It must have been a GIF
Could have been Gävle Godtemplares IK. An old fine Gävle club. 4-5 men signed up for a hockey club near me to teach how to play hockey. They did that, but they were not any Godtemplare🥴🍻🍷🥃
Significantly off-topic:
The old one shortly (according to the old one’s timekeeping) after they invented football!
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DeSLhtfurYF/?exln=a2JxazFuMjh4N2Ez
”Opinion makers who, contrary to reality, paint the picture that Swedish democracy is in a twilight state risk serving truly totalitarian forces.”
https://www.gp.se/asikt-och-debatt/ledare/strandhall-borde-veta-battre-an-att-utmala-sverige-som-fascistiskt.52de0351-91fd-5d90-98cc-f4678b75026c
Yep, using the Nazi card against Simona was so far over the line that it became obvious that it’s all about power ambitions with a big PR machine behind it.
Then when it was directed at V for a while, it was a bit spicy to see, the whole fire hose swung over to Dadgostar and Ida for a while to try to get them to back down.
It’s shameless and not statesmanlike in the least.
I’m still quite satisfied with the Tidö Agreement after 4×4 years first with the Alliance and then the S-led government.
The Alliance was behind Vattenfall’s disastrous purchase and then over 8 years we shut down all the nuclear power we could with S.
I agree. I think that TIDÖ overall succeeded quite well.
Even though I lost it when M, out of fear of the Social Democrats, did not stop the index increase of the threshold for state income tax and then Kristersson pushed through the gender legislation. It made me abandon M, which I had been a member of since my teenage years (despite a family strongly marked by the Social Democrats), to join MED (which resulted in ending up on blocklists in SM) and finally vote for Mona and L after she admirably got her party in order so that they stopped the childishness and instead focused on policy issues.
Center Party’s Maud was central in the Vattenfall fiasco. Sweden’s most expensive minister of all time. The C party must be kept away from any influence over our tax money.
We will soon see if MXT calms down or not as you thought it would.
France doesn’t seem to be taking any chances and has mobilized 70,000 police officers for the weekend 😶
Hope they aim correctly with the automatic rifles. I believe French society would welcome it if the looters get a taste of lead, but if it happens to be a few more or less innocent teenagers who were just a bit excited, then it won’t be good.
I wrote one or a couple more weekends.
This weekend will surely be full speed, but then I think they can manage at most one more before they get tired. Unless some other groups step up and take over, of course.
Apparently the train accident in Spain was a data error?
They probably have PHP on one of their servers that controls the trains …
Good post Johan! I’m quite depressed about Europe’s future from an economic perspective. Both Europe and the USA each have about 1.6 TW of planned capacity in their power grids by 2030. China has 5.4 TW. In large-scale production, the cost per produced unit is roughly raw materials + energy. That’s right, China also has cheaper raw materials. And labor. If AI isn’t a fad – who will be able to run the most AI inference? We will have a few decades where China simply dominates because they have planned their societal infrastructure better. If we don’t want to be dominated forever, we just have to roll up our sleeves and aim for 2045 or so. And it requires a hell of a push under the boots that can only start with awareness of the problem.
On the positive side, one of the things we need to do for Agenda 2045 is to have so many kids that we get a new generation in Europe turning 18 in 2045. On that front, we might be able to outcompete the Chinese, who have very poor demographics. Otherwise, we’ll probably have to live frugally to avoid consuming Chinese products. Also positive is that European culture is by far the nicest, to be honest. All cultures and peoples have nice and fun elements, but Europe is the best overall.
Now it is also seriously underway in Germany.
Spain has already had chaos, I saw.
UK is probably next in line.
Halloween is going to be a “night of darkness”.
Dima Watermelon
https://youtube.com/shorts/kJNiHe-LyfA?is=L9YRZfgAlQdIyDrr
🧵Three blacklisted supertankers holding 140,000 tons of Russian fuel are drifting in circles in the Atlantic because the White House begged US traders to buy Putin’s diesel, and literally zero buyers answered the phone. 1/🧵
https://x.com/actfast/status/2115904003133587691?a=vku71yhnQLRcBuiFcms&s=46
In a letter in October to commercial banks, fuel distributors, and port authorities in New York, New Jersey, and along the Texas coast toward the Gulf of Mexico, legislators also warned that companies involved in diesel deliveries could become subject to investigations.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/russian-diesel-tankers-close-us-ports-trump-putin-deal-triggers-legal-showdown
Good morning!
1590 KWIA
1 Tank
3 AFVs
21 Artillery systems
1 MLRS
1 Air defense system
2 Aircrafts
1589 UAVs
3 UGVs
264 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
Slava Ukraini
Good morning
The loss figures seem to have stabilized at a lower level?
After pressure from the USA, Ukraine is reported to have agreed to temporarily stop attacking Russian oil refineries. This is reported by several sources to the American Wall Street Journal. The pause is said to have lasted since the beginning of the week.
Donald Trump has pointed to Ukraine’s attacks on Russian gas and oil as the cause of soaring fuel prices globally. At the same time, most experts believe that it is rather the USA’s war in Iran that has caused higher fuel prices.
The pause is expected to last until the American midterm elections, on Tuesday.
https://www.svd.se/a/wA9Gmd/senaste-nytt
“It then says, they are not superpowers any longer, they are middle powers.“
Former Swedish prime minister and foreign minister Carl Bildt claims that Ukraine and Iran resisting the military campaigns of Russia and the US shows that they are no longer superpowers, and criticises Trump for going “full Putin”.
https://youtu.be/U6HZuHdTUwc?is=CNygZ4H0ap1XwhWt
What happened mxt, had posted a message?
New post published 👍