- 1470 KWIA
- 10 Tanks
- 6 AFVs
- 42 Artillery systems
- 5 MLRS
- 1 Air defense system
- 2003 UAVs
- 2 UGVs
- 445 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
- 4 Special equipment
- 7 Cruise missiles #SlavaUkraini
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Russian losses
“20 Russian ships, of which 17 are oil tankers, were hit in a Ukrainian drone attack in the Black Sea on the night leading into Wednesday. This was reported by the head of Ukraine’s drone forces on Telegram, writes Reuters. It is unclear how severe the damage to the ships is. At the same time, Russia has continued its attacks on Ukrainian ports. During the night, four ships were hit, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.”
https://omni.se/a/gk4GRq
Off-Topic
“The American president Donald Trump threatens Iran that it will be ‘really bad for them’ next week if no peace agreement is signed. He says this in an interview with Fox News. – We will take out all their power plants. We will destroy all their bridges if they do not come to the negotiating table, he said. The statement comes after the countries have attacked each other for several days in a row. The US has attacked targets in Iran, while Iran has responded by attacking American targets in several countries in the Middle East. During the night, the US carried out a wave of attacks against Iran that lasted for seven hours before ending around 4 a.m., CNN reports.”
https://omni.se/a/aJKxlM
Good morning
In Chita, a couple queued for 39 hours to refuel. A state of emergency prevails in Crimea. In Novosibirsk, 20-liter cans of gasoline are being sold on Telegram. Ukraine’s drone war has triggered a Russian fuel crisis – but the question is how hard it hits the war chest.
Henning Eklund
Published 05:44
“This has been going on with us for three weeks now. It should get better – but it’s getting worse!”
“That’s because everyone is panic-filling their tanks. I refueled a week ago and am not stressed – I’ve used half a tank. It’s just silly to stand in those queues, there’s the subway and commuter trains.”
The Telegram channel “Where can I refuel? Novosibirsk” has 11,300 members. One afternoon in July, reports and questions follow each other, several per minute. Everyone is hunting for the same thing: gasoline.
Most posts are about where it is possible to refuel and how long the queues at gas stations are. But there are also questions about whether cars with handicap signs are allowed to go ahead in the queue, and speculation about whether gasoline has been sent away from the region by train. People report that gasoline in some places has been reserved for “security services,” while another claims to have three twenty-liter cans for sale in the suburb of Berdsk. Video clips of fights between customers at a gas station are also shared.
The phenomenon is not limited to the Siberian million-city but similar channels exist for virtually every Russian city.
39 hours in line
The most extreme queue example that SvD has seen is from Siberian Chita. There, Vlad Vasjeruk states that he queued for 39 hours to refuel.
– We got in line on June 28 at eleven in the evening. At first, it moved slowly, then it stood completely still. We managed to sleep a bit. I don’t know how many cars were ahead of us, maybe around a thousand. On average, we moved about 50 meters every forty minutes. We finally got to refuel on June 30 around one or two in the afternoon, he tells the independent Russian news site Meduza.
Queues at a gas station in Chita.
Queues at a gas station in Chita. Photo: Evgeny Yepanchintsev/AP
Vasjeruk also says that a friendly atmosphere developed in the queue, where people offered each other food, water, and cigarettes. He also says that the police were present and maintained order.
– We managed to rent a hotel room near the gas station. My wife and I took turns: one of us went there to wash, rest, charge phones, and get something to eat. The one who stayed in the car crawled forward slowly.
The Instagram post where he talks about the queue has been viewed almost 700,000 times at the time of writing. It is just one of many similar videos that have spread widely on social media. Instagram has been blocked in Russia since 2022 but is used extensively via VPN.
The Russian independent TV channel Dozhd’s footage of kilometer-long queues in Chita:
Телеканал Дождь on Instagram: “Гигантскую очередь на заправку «Роснефти» засняли в Чите Подписывайтесь на @tvrain”
To handle the crisis, the Kremlin has decided on a regulation allowing certain refineries to lower production quality from Euro 5 to Euro 3 until the end of the year. Euro 3 is the standard used in the EU between 2000 and 2005. In Crimea, the authorities have declared a state of emergency and banned all fuel sales, and a majority of the regions in the country have introduced some form of fuel rationing.
The reason for the Russian fuel crisis is Ukrainian drones.
Since the beginning of June alone, six large Russian refineries have been completely or partially shut down by air attacks. Virtually all major refineries in the country have been hit by Ukrainian long-range drones during 2026; the only major refinery that has survived is in Angarsk, 445 miles from the front. On July 6, Gazprom’s refinery in Omsk in western Siberia, almost 250 miles from Ukrainian territory, was hit. Volodymyr Zelensky declared then that Siberia is now “within reach.”
Ukraine’s General Staff claims that 42.7 percent of Russian refining capacity was out of action at the beginning of July. The staff estimates the Russian oil industry’s total losses since August last year at 13.5 billion dollars.
Air defense is not enough
The large Kapotnya refinery in Moscow was modernized in 2020. Several different units were replaced with two facilities built close to each other – making them an ideal drone target. This is written by Sergei Vakulenko, former strategy chief at the oil company Gazprom Neft but now affiliated with the think tank Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, in an article from June 22.
“Not even the heavy air defense around Moscow can prevent drones from getting through,” he writes.
Vakulenko describes the situation as a race between Ukraine’s drones and Russia’s repair crews.
“If the frequency of Ukrainian attacks can be maintained, and the damage from each attack increases, the advantage tips towards Kiev. That is what we are seeing right now.”
The Russian leader Vladimir Putin spoke about the situation during a meeting with the Russian oil industry on June 28.
– Regarding attacks on critical infrastructure in general, and energy infrastructure in particular: these attacks on our facilities obviously create problems. We currently see some shortages, but they are not critical, I can tell you that right away. There are several challenges we need to handle, Putin said, calling the attacks “terrorist attacks.”
– No attacks, regardless of where they hit our infrastructure, have any impact on the situation at the front, he continued.
The change is visible in the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). It shows that Russian crude oil exports increased to 5.8 million barrels per day in June, compared to 5.2 in May, as Russia sells the oil it cannot refine itself. At the same time, the IEA lowers its forecast for Russia’s oil production in 2026 and 2027 due to continued attacks on refineries, storage, and transport infrastructure.
Could become political drama
The shutdown of refineries has a major impact on the availability of gasoline and diesel at Russian gas stations. But it does not have to be a disaster for the Russian economy, says Chloé Le Coq, professor of economics at Université Paris-Panthéon-Assas, to SvD.
– Shutting down refineries is impressive, it is really something the civilian population notices. There is undoubtedly a psychological effect. But Russia will still sell its crude oil.
– As news, it is big that refineries are being shut down, everyone talks about it. But for the state treasury, this is not a drama. Whether it becomes a political drama is another question, continues Chloé Le Coq, who is also a researcher at the Stockholm School of Economics’ SITE institute.
She draws a parallel to the Yellow Vests in France, the protest movement triggered in 2018 by rising fuel prices and which grew into a nationwide revolt against the government.
– If there is a sudden shortage or price increase in fuel, it creates political tension. In France, it really became chaotic; I do not expect chaos in Russia. But there is a parliamentary election in September.
The oil price has fluctuated dramatically this year. The Middle East war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed the Brent price from just over 60 dollars a barrel at the turn of the year to a peak of over 126 dollars at the end of April. On Tuesday, the market price was 86 dollars a barrel.
– The Iran war has been somewhat of a blessing for Russia. They still earn a lot of money on their crude oil.
“Pest or cholera”
Where the money comes from is well documented.
Since December 2022, half of Russian oil exports have gone to China, and 36 percent to India, according to the research institute CREA. Revenues from oil and gas accounted for only 23 percent of budget revenues in 2025, the lowest share in 20 years. In the mid-2010s, the figure was almost 50 percent.
The Russian authority Rosstat claims that Russia’s economy grew by about 3 percent per year in 2023-2025. But the Swedish Military Intelligence and Security Service (Must) assesses that it has actually shrunk by the same amount. Must also estimates that inflation is at least twice as high as the official figures (5.3 percent). The agency bases this partly on night light activity from satellites – and sees low activity everywhere except in the military-industrial complexes operating at full speed.
– It’s just a choice between pest or cholera. You can start the printing presses and print more money but that comes with negative consequences like inflation. You can tax the population harder and confiscate savings. But that is not good for morale, Must chief Thomas Nilsson tells Di.
Regardless of how badly the Russian economy is doing, the fuel war is a lesson for Europe as well, says professor Chloé Le Coq.
– It’s not only energy supplies that can be used as weapons, but also the energy infrastructure itself. We see Ukraine attacking refineries, we see Russia attacking power grids. From a security perspective, this is really where Europe should invest going forward: in energy infrastructure and its protection.
Why the oil country can be without gasoline
Crude oil is the untreated oil pumped from the ground — a viscous mixture of hundreds of substances that cannot be used as fuel.
A refinery converts crude oil into usable products. The oil is heated and separated into fractions: the light ones become gasoline, the medium-heavy diesel, the heaviest heating oil and asphalt. Without functioning refineries, Russia can pump up as much crude oil as it wants, but cannot fill the tanks of its own cars.
https://www.svd.se/a/zOxeLK/rysk-branslekris-koade-till-macken-i-39-timmar
👍
I believe that the effects of the Ukrainian kinetic sanctions are significantly greater than what is assessed here. Without fuel, practically everything stops. I would not be surprised if we see famine going forward.
Yes, it is important to keep track of Russia not importing refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and lubricants. Or exchanging for the crude oil they themselves fail to refine. Here, logistics routes are probably something to keep an eye on, road, rail towards western Russia, as well as ships.
🔥 Power Plant destruction of the Balaklava TPP in occupied Sevastopol.
Hence the blackouts
https://bsky.app/profile/beefeaterfella.bsky.social/post/3mqo4lm5g2k2n
“🇺🇦 101/122 drones and 0/2 Kh 59/69 missiles shot down by Ukrainian Air Defence!”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mqo4l6ychs2b
It will be like yesterday, a few fewer posts from my side. Playing carpenter and building a deck.
“💥👀 Video of attack on Russian shadow fleet tankers!”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mqo4hfcltk2b
An increased Russian pressure, especially in Pokrovsk, drove up the total Russian attacks. At the same time, the Ukrainian pressure decreased somewhat.
N Slobozhansky 2
S Slobozhansky 10💥↘️
Kupyansk 3
Lyman 16💥↗️
Slovyansk 26💥💥
Kramatorsk 5
Kostjantynivka 20💥
Pokrovsk 48💥💥💥↗️
Oleksandrivskij 6
Huliaipole 20💥↗️
Orikhivsk 3
Prydniprovskij 0
Localized 159↗️
Unlocalized 94↘️
Total 253↗️
Ratio unloc/loc 0.6↘️
WWI tech-style:
❗️🇷🇺 In a rare admission of battlefield paralysis broadcasted on Russian state media, Russian serviceman and veteran of the war in Ukraine, Alexander Barmatov, revealed that the pervasive use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has effectively frozen front-line movements by creating an expansive “grey zone.”
Speaking live on the Kremlin-aligned propaganda channel Tsargrad TV, Barmatov explained that intense FPV and reconnaissance drone activity has established a lethal buffer zone extending up to 40 kilometers deep behind the zero-line. Under such total aerial surveillance and immediate strike capabilities, he noted, any concentrated movement of armor or infantry is instantly detected and destroyed.
The veteran concluded that within this current tactical reality, the battlefield has become so transparent and hazardous that any meaningful, large-scale offensive advancements by either side have become virtually impossible.
—Nstrike
The terror romantic, the torture enthusiast, the rape supporter, and former Frölunda player Linus Weissbach has apparently been interviewed by Russian propaganda.
https://www.expressen.se/sport/hockey/linus-weissbach-bryter-tystnaden-efter-flytten-till-ryssland/
Exactly the same analysis that we have stated several times before.
There is not a single little sign that Russia and Vladimir Putin are ready for peace. This is what the Russian chess legend and Putin critic Garry Kasparov tells Politico.
He instead sees it as more likely that Russia will escalate the war in Ukraine. Especially after Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian targets.
– Putin has always escalated when he has felt pressured, says Kasparov.
According to the exiled Russian, a likely Russian escalation would be to attack a NATO country to test how the alliance – and especially the USA – would respond. He points out Latvia and Estonia as likely targets.
https://omni.se/a/q6QMBO