Russian losses etc. over time + today’s losses

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Russian losses in Ukraine over time

Time to once again review how Russian losses change over time to observe long-term changes and trends and possibly draw some conclusions from it.
I start by going through the corresponding data reported in the daily reports, then we look at some other data.
As a basis, I have as usual used Ragnar’s fantastic compilation of data from the war in Ukraine.
Thank you Ragnar! Follow him on Bluesky @ragnarbjartur.bsky.social or on Twitter @ragnarbjartur if you’re not already doing so!

Russian losses of soldiers, killed and wounded (KWIA)

Russian soldier losses have varied during the war, often in connection with major offensives. The highest number of losses was around the turn of 2024/2025. After that, it decreased to a low point at the end of summer 2025. Since then, it has fluctuated slightly but there have been no major changes and it is difficult to identify any trend. Losses have been around 1000 KWIA/day in the last six months,

From the start of the war until today:

To see more in detail, here is an excerpt from July 1 until today:

Russian losses of tanks and other armored vehicles

The losses for tanks and other armored vehicles do not exactly coincide, but over time, they correspond quite well. From May 2025, the numbers began to decrease for both, and during the summer, the losses were very low. It has continued on the same track with some occasional bumps. One can sense that the losses are slightly higher now than when they were at their lowest. This could be a sign of increased intensity in the war. Ukraine has managed to regain some smaller areas.

The overall decrease in numbers is likely due to simply not having as many left combined with tactical adjustments as they discovered they incurred huge losses every time they attempted to attack with a larger number. If it is due to shortages, it must be assumed that they are using up everything they can produce; if it is mainly a tactical adjustment, it is very possible that they are building up a stockpile, and we may see larger offensives in the future.

Tank losses throughout the war

Losses of other armored vehicles throughout the war

Losses of artillery and MLRS

The artillery losses somewhat follow the KWIA losses (and at the same time the intensity of the war regarding major offensives). The losses have also decreased from record levels but have slightly recovered from the bottom and increased towards the end. Currently, we have an average per day ranging between 40-50.
Artillery was something that many assumed Russia would run out of first. We do not know how much North Korea has delivered, but we had a sharp decline at the end of 2024 followed by an equally sharp increase. An increase that we do not see in KWIA or armor losses.
Regarding the use of grenades, it has decreased significantly, but despite that, we still have quite high losses (more on that below).
Losses of MLRS are so low that it is difficult to see any fluctuations.

Artillery losses since the start of the war

MLRS losses since the start of the war

Downed UAVs

The curve for downed UAVs is growing almost exponentially. A year ago, I did not consider the Russian terror attacks as a major threat to Ukraine, but as it has intensified, it is now likely to have reached a level that makes it very difficult. Not only does it target the power supply affecting the entire society, not only the civilian population but also the manufacturing industry, which includes military equipment. Zelenskyy himself has mentioned that the production of Flamingos has been attacked, preventing mass production from starting according to schedule.

Unfortunately, we do not see any slowdown. Today, we set a new record that far surpassed the previous one. It is of course very good that Ukraine can manage to shoot down the huge numbers, but it also means that Russia’s capacity to produce Shahed drones has also increased significantly. Whether Iran is still delivering or if Russia is producing everything themselves, no one really knows. If they are dependent on Iran, it has not been noticeable so far, but they may have had large stocks to draw from. If this continues to increase at the same rate, I do not think it will be sustainable in the long run. Ukraine needs help to identify and eliminate manufacturing facilities.

Number of combat UAVs engaged since the start of the war.

Overview of monthly and yearly KWIA losses:

Losses of Russian air defense

Regarding air defense, the losses, like for MLRS, are quite low, but here we can see that something has changed recently. From very low losses, they have slowly increased and suddenly spiked. Could Ukraine be preparing to deploy aircraft, or paving the way for Flamingos, etc.? Or is it that Russian air defense is now becoming so weakened that it has become easier for Ukraine to neutralize it?
It’s hard to say, but we hope it’s a form of pre-emptive action before an upcoming offensive.

Losses of Russian air defense since July 1, 2025

Losses of Russian soft vehicles

When it comes to regular unarmored vehicles, we are at record levels. This may be partly because they hardly use armored vehicles anymore, but also that motorcycles, ATVs, and other smaller vehicles seem to be increasingly used, requiring larger quantities. It may also be a sign that Ukraine has become better at targeting deep objectives. Perhaps it is a form of pre-emptive action before an offensive?

Losses of soft vehicles since the start of the war

Special equipment

Here too, we see a sharp decrease at the end of 2024, and since then, there have been minimal losses without any signs of an increase. I find it hard to believe that Ukraine’s capabilities have diminished; it is more likely that Russia has adjusted tactics and no longer dares to place special equipment too close to the front line. We have never been told exactly what is included in this category. It could be that thermobaric artillery like TOS, etc., is included here (they have differentiated between regular artillery and MLRS). If so, it could be part of the explanation. TOS has a short range, and they are likely starting to feel the effects. The same probably applies to larger vehicles with advanced radar, etc. In that case, we can interpret the low losses as a good sign; Russia has simply lost some of its “capabilities”.

Special equipment, seen throughout the war

Artillery attacks and suicide drones

Here we can see that the number of artillery attacks has decreased while the use of suicide drones has increased significantly. A sign that modern warfare has evolved during the war in Ukraine where cheap drones with high precision are replacing older, more expensive, and clumsier solutions. Artillery is far from obsolete, but since June 1, 2025, it has almost halved, while FPV drones have more than doubled.

Number of battles/engagements

Here we can see that the number has been very high so far in 2026, but at the same time, we can also sense a turning point towards the end with a decreased number. It is a bit early to determine if this trend will continue. These are the number of battles, but their extent is not clear.
The high number of battles since the end of the year may be due to Russia attacking with more and smaller groups.

Here we can see both the number of battles and KWIA for the past month. Unfortunately, the chart becomes unreadable if a longer interval is chosen. When examined in detail, it can be noted that they do not quite correlate. Individual skirmishes do not noticeably affect KWIA. This may be due to reporting not always being in sync, but it could also be because the battles involve so few soldiers that it does not make a significant impact overall.

Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses

Here we see the comparison between Russia and Ukraine and the trend we have observed before, that Ukraine is now losing more than Russia continues. The ratio was below 0.5 but has recovered slightly and is currently around 0.7. We hope this trend continues. These data come from Oryx and are visually confirmed based on images and videos obtained from the internet/social media and reviewed.

Conclusion

Russia continues to expand its capacity when it comes to drones, both UAVs for nighttime terror attacks and FPV drones used at the frontlines. Their ability to adapt to modern warfare and seemingly ramp up production is concerning. This is also the most evident trend when looking at the charts. I see it as the biggest threat, although winter is over and Ukraine managed to survive it despite Russia’s attempts to disrupt the energy supply.

Ukraine is of course doing the same and has also significantly increased its production. They may not have quite matched Russia yet in terms of deep strike capabilities, but they have a massive production of FPV drones and have also initiated countermeasures against Shaheds. Otherwise, they would never be able to shoot down the huge numbers of UAVs.

Regarding the situation at the frontlines, Russia continues to make small advances, but Ukraine has now managed to reclaim some areas. Based on the losses of LV, etc., it can be inferred that Russia is starting to struggle to defend itself, and Ukraine may be gearing up for a counteroffensive. There are rumors that Russia is having difficulty recruiting, and even pro-Russian bloggers are becoming increasingly negative. The latter, of course, also makes it challenging to replenish with new soldiers. It may soon be the right time for Ukraine to strike back.

Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-03-08

If Iran is still delivering Shaheds to Russia, it is not yet evident in the loss reports. New records for downed UAVs are still being set with a few days in between. In this latest report, we once again have a new record of 2,558, which is a significant increase from the previous record of 1,950. Russian losses of soft vehicles are also very high, the second-highest so far. The record stands at 312.

  • 930 KWIA
  • 5 Tanks
  • 5 AFVs
  • 55 Artillery systems
  • 3 MLRS
  • 2,558 UAVs
  • 19 Cruise missiles
  • 289 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
  • 3 Special equipment

Russian activities

Here too, we have a new record. 9,837 suicide drones are, like UAVs above, a significant increase from the previous record of 9,054.

  • 121 skirmishes
  • 86 Airstrikes (including 33 drones)
  • 254 KAB
  • 9,837 Suicide drones
  • 3,514 grenades (including 49 from MLRS)

SLAVA UKRAINI

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105 thoughts on “Russian losses etc. over time + today’s losses”

  1. jockesoft

    Good morning,

    Last night I did what I probably shouldn’t do in a situation like this, I turned off my phone, put earplugs in my ears, and slept, because I simply needed to sleep. I want to remember waking up and hearing bangs, but it could just as well have been my mind playing tricks on me. But now it feels really bad here for real.

    The third air raid alarm in just a few hours just sounded, it bangs heavily above my head but it seems like Iran is sending fewer missiles but much more often, this really disrupts life because now we can never feel any kind of security here. It’s really a clear escalation and sitting in my plastic bathtub, I guess that it’s the Iranian army’s response to the president’s statement yesterday. They don’t listen to the president and they don’t follow him, the Iranian army is completely autonomous and that’s the whole purpose of how they’ve built up their dictatorship. There’s a very interesting article about this here

    If this continues to escalate as it has now, it’s only a matter of time before it’s actually time to leave here, this is not sustainable in the long run.

    And then this: “‘No problem with neighbours,’ says Iran President” here

    I think I have a different opinion on this matter. 🤔

    All the best (well, sort of…) from Abu Dhabi.       

    1. MXT

      Thank you for the report!

      I think you did the right thing by making sure to get some sleep. Sleep deprivation is nothing to play around with if it continues for several days, especially not in combination with high levels of stress.

      Yes, it sounds like maybe it’s time to consider getting out of there if it doesn’t ease up soon. It’s not good to risk either your physical or mental health if you don’t have to. Even though the likelihood of actually being hit is low, stress can leave its mark for life, something that is difficult to assess when you’re in the middle of it, only becoming apparent later when it’s over.

      If what you write is true, that the army doesn’t care about what the leadership says, this could turn into a protracted war in the long run. In that case, it won’t matter if Trump manages to strike a deal with the mullahs (or any successor), the fighting will continue anyway.

      In interviews, Trump has already started to dismiss Iran as already defeated, but that’s probably just wishful thinking.

      Take care of yourself, and seriously consider if it’s time to try to get out of there!

       

    2. 205

      So it’s missiles primarily and not Shaheds? And the time from air alarm to hit surely differs? That it wouldn’t differ is Shaheds’ ability to fly low and avoid detection until late. But as I read it, there are no Shaheds, only missiles. I don’t know how it is, but I assume it’s easier to take out missile launchers than Shaheds that can probably be launched from anywhere, for example from a 4×4. With air superiority at least the missile launchers are threatened, should.

      1. jockesoft

        It’s a combination, but what is what is completely impossible for me to know. My understanding is that about 5 times more shaheds are sent than ballistic missiles, but my guess is that when the bangs come at the same time as the alarm, it should reasonably be missiles.

        Stats 20260307

        1. 205

          😟😠yes it seems reasonable that ballistic missiles will quickly reach the target with short notice. Even though one should detect these already at launch, it can still be a short flight..

    3. Umlaut

      The Revolutionary Guard was originally formed to protect the religious state in Iran from its own citizens, but has since grown to become a completely parallel military structure alongside the regular one, with its own navy and air force. While the regular military answers to, albeit expelled and approved by the Islamic Council, the presidency, the loyalty of the Revolutionary Guard is entirely tied to the religious power (the mullahs).

    4. johan No.1

      Well, a proven trick is unfortunately to always send something so the alarms go off at night.

      Make sure the residents get war-weary and start putting pressure on their rulers.

      What a bang escalation it became…

    5. johan No.1

      Fadde Darwich apparently picked up E-type in a Fiat Punto according to his Twitter, maybe I should check with him about ways out of the country if he hasn’t completely fooled me 😲

      Can’t you work quite a lot remotely anyway?

      Don’t need to be fired just because you don’t want to physically sit in the middle of a war?

      1. jockesoft

        Today there have been 4 air raid alarms and I am heartily tired of it and need to get out of here. Tomorrow I will be very open about how I feel, the latest air raid alarm made the cup run over. The only thing I do at the moment, sitting in my plastic bathtub, is to wait for the next air raid alarm. The latest one was insanely close and I got a full show with both launches and hits of missiles/drones, all outside my balcony. My work is not important enough to be ready to take a shahed in the head.

        I’m just sick and tired of everything now. 😔

  6. MXT

    “⚡️Ukraine’s Oschadbank seeks return of vehicles, valuables seized in Hungary. Ukraine’s state-owned Oschadbank said on March 7 that it will pursue legal action to recover bank property still held in Hungary after the recent detention of its employees and armored vehicles.”

    1. johan No.1

      What is missing is what the money was for?

      Hungary has no right at all but Ukraine should show that Hungary didn’t find what they tried to hide.

      1. MXT

        It is not entirely uncommon for money and valuables to be moved between banks in different countries, even if it does not happen daily. The child himself has said that it has happened before.

        Ukraine’s state bank has stated that the transport was carried out through an agreement with Raiffeisen Bank in Austria and that all documents were handled in accordance with European customs regulations, with the intention of replenishing the cash share in Ukraine.

        https://t.me/oschadnews/734
        https://thepage.ua/ua/news/oshadbank-poyasniv-chomu-perevoziv-dollar40-mln-i-zoloto-cherez-ugorshinu

        It would also be somewhat strange if they were trying to launder money by moving it to Ukraine.

        It’s not Ukraine that has to prove its innocence, it’s the child who has to prove that a crime has been committed if they intend to keep the valuables transport. Otherwise, anything within the country could be seized and claimed to be stolen goods without any evidence. 

        I guess many are now starting to wonder if they really want to use Hungary as a transit country.

        This is just an attempt by Orbán to smear Ukraine in an effort to gain support for his anti-Ukraine policy ahead of the election.

  7. MXT

    ⚡️ “If you’re not jumping, you support Tayyip”: Turkish singer Hande Yener arrested for insulting Erdogan. The incident occurred during her concert in Muğla, where she joined the crowd chanting, “If you’re not jumping, you support Tayyip.”

    During a performance in Istanbul, the singer also said, “We will beautifully overthrow this era.” The concerts took place on May 15 and 18, 2025. Yener was called in for questioning.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/slavaukraini033.bsky.social/post/3mgjimehvv227

     

  8. 205

    A while ago a large-scale attack from the Russian side. The unlocalized attacks are at about the same level, the Russian localized attacks that go back and forth but no significant jumps upwards as mentioned. The pressure is rather generally low, and significantly lower than a few months ago.

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 0
    S Slobozhansky 5
    Kupyansk 4
    Lyman 6
    Slovyansk 12💥↗️
    Kramatorsk 1
    Kostjantynivka 15💥↘️
    Pokrovsk 20💥
    Oleksandrivskij 4
    Huliaipole 12💥↘️
    Orikhivsk 0
    Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 0

    Sum sectors 79↘️
    Unlocalized 42
    Total 121↘️

     

    Localized Russian attacks since 2025-05-01:

    :

  9. 205

    About Iran 🇮🇷, Maryan Zablotskyi:

    My prediction for Iran: war with Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and the Kurds is coming. Persians in Iran are actually a statistical minority compared to all other ethnic groups combined.

    There are about 20 million Azerbaijanis in Iran — twice as many as in Azerbaijan itself. That is why Baku is getting from Israel what we could not even dream of from the Americans during Biden’s time.

    Baku has as many as five types of Israeli air defense systems, including the famous Iron Dome. There is also the incredible Arrow-3, which shoots down ballistic missiles while they are still in space (for example, it would also intercept the Oreshnik). In addition, the country has received almost all types of Israeli artillery and missile systems, including ballistic missiles with a range of over 400 kilometers.

    There are an estimated 8-10 million Kurds in Iran. Iraqi Kurds have already announced that they are preparing to cross the border.

    There are also several million Turkmen in Iran, and, of course, Turkmenistan also had military-technical cooperation with Israel.

    If there is no ground operation in Iran by the US and Israel, and it seems that there will not be, then the only chance to overthrow the regime is to stir up ethnic divisions. They have been preparing for this for many years. The bombing seems to be preparation for the second stage: a possible invasion by neighbors.

    There are already large numbers of refugees on the border with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Thousands of Azerbaijanis, Turkmen, and Kurds were killed during the protests. There is already a formal pretext for “protecting their own.” Plus, the arrival of “martyrs” on Azerbaijani territory is a ready-made formal casus belli.

    I am in favor of giving the Iranian regime a good beating. If Iran supplied “martyrs” in response to Russia’s invasion of our country, I will only applaud the armies of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and the Kurds. In general, the Iranian regime is a bunch of tyrannical bastards who mercilessly kill their own people and steal billions.

    On the other hand, my joy will be bittersweet. Unfortunately, this will have a negative effect on us in terms of oil prices and the lack of air defense systems. We may also find ourselves in the middle of deals between big shots, where Ukraine’s role will be assigned on a residual basis. This is similar to what we are already seeing in terms of the priority and availability of equipment for our air defense and for Baku’s air defense (yes, I am very jealous, despite all my pride in our interceptor drones).

    https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1BcZQT7aRR/?mibextid=wwXIfr

     

    1. 205

      🇸🇪

      About Iran 🇮🇷, Maryan Zablotskyi 🇺🇦:

      My forecast for Iran: a war with Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and the Kurds is looming. The Persians in Iran are actually a statistical minority compared to all other ethnic groups combined.

      There are around 20 million Azerbaijanis in Iran – twice as many as in Azerbaijan itself. That’s why Baku receives from Israel what we couldn’t even dream of from the Americans during Biden’s time.

      Baku has a total of five types of Israeli air defense systems, including the well-known Iron Dome. There is also the incredible “Strela-3,” which shoots down ballistic missiles already in space (for example, it could also shoot down “Oreshnik”). Additionally, the country has acquired almost all types of Israeli artillery and missile systems, including ballistic missiles with a range of over 400 kilometers.

      According to various estimates, there are about 8-10 million Kurds in Iran. The Iraqi Kurds have already announced that they are preparing to cross the border.

      There are also several million Turkmen in Iran, and of course, Turkmenistan has also had military-technical cooperation with Israel.

      If there is no ground operation in Iran from the US and Israel’s side, and it doesn’t seem likely, the only chance to overthrow the regime is to undermine the ethnic divisions. This has been prepared for many years. The bombings seem to be a preparation for the second stage: a possible invasion from neighboring countries.

      Right now, there are already a large number of refugees at the border with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Thousands of Azerbaijanis, Turkmens, and Kurds were already killed during the protests. There is already a formal reason to “protect our own.” Additionally, the arrival of “martyrs” on Azerbaijani territory is a ready-made formal casus belli.

      I am in favor of the Iranian regime getting a proper beating. If Iran delivers “shahids” in response to Russia’s invasion of us, I will only applaud the armies in Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and the Kurds. And overall, the Iranian regime is a tyrannical bunch of bastards who mercilessly kill their people and steal billions.

      On the other hand, my joy will be bitter. Unfortunately, this will have a negative impact on us in terms of oil prices and the lack of air defense. We may also end up in a game between major powers, where Ukraine’s role will be assigned according to the residual principle. Similar to what is already evident in the prioritization and availability of equipment for our air defense and for Baku (yes, I am truly envious, despite all the pride in our drone interceptors).

      https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1BcZQT7aRR/?mibextid=wwXIfr  

    2. johan No.1

      IF Pakistan, Azerbaijan, and Kurdistan go to war with Iran, there is no living analyst today who can predict how the Iranian people will vote.

      But if they fail with their revolution now, the USA has two alternatives – that or sacrifice American soldiers’ lives.

  10. MXT

    🧐

    “A powerful explosion occurred at the US embassy in Oslo during the night. No one was physically harmed, but the blast caused minor damage to the building, according to Norwegian media.

    The alarm was raised at 01:00 and a large operation has been ongoing in the area throughout the night.

    – We have an idea of what caused this, says operations leader Mikael Dellemyr to TV2 without going into details.

    No one has been arrested.”
    https://omni.se/kraftig-explosion-vid-usa-s-ambassad-i-oslo/a/bOgyRe

  11. MXT

    “Ali Larijani, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and in practice the country’s current leader, says that Iran holds Donald Trump responsible for the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In a speech on state-controlled TV, he says that Iran “will not let go” of the USA.

    In his speech, Larijani tried to emphasize that the country’s leadership is united and that Iran has not given up, writes the New York Times.

    When CBS News asked Donald Trump about the threat, the president responded:

    – I don’t know what he’s talking about or who he is. I couldn’t care less.

    Trump believes that Iran has already been defeated.”

  12. MXT

    USA and Israel have held discussions about sending special forces to Iran at a later stage of the war to secure Iran’s uranium deposits, according to several sources to Axios. Many details are unclear, including whether the forces are intended to be American, Israeli, or from both countries.

    According to one source, two different plans have been discussed. One involves physically removing the uranium from Iran, and the other involves rendering the uranium unusable on-site in the country.

    Foreign Minister Marco Rubio commented on Iran’s uranium deposits during a congressional hearing earlier this week.

    – Someone will need to go there and get it.
    https://omni.se/kallor-usa-och-israel-kan-skicka-specialforband-for-att-ta-iranskt-uran/a/m0QX7E

  13. 205

    Ukraine mourns for Europe’s security. Poland, and even Hungary, joined NATO when they learned from the experience of being governed from Moscow. And Putin’s ambitions have hardly been confirmed to stop with a full invasion of Ukraine.

    “All our partners – in the USA, Europe, and elsewhere – should clearly understand that the friendship between Putin, the Iranian regime, North Korea, Lukashenko, and others serves only one purpose: to let them do to others what they did to our Donbas wherever they want.”

    — Zelensky, March 6, 2026

    https://x.com/zelenskyyua/status/2029934890821575140?s=46

    The U.S. acts forcefully against this threat. But what about Europe?

    The U.S. has begun using British military bases to support its airstrikes on Iran, the U.K.’s Defense Ministry said Saturday. So far, the U.K. is the first and only European country to openly allow the U.S. to use its bases for the campaign.

    https://x.com/starsandstripes/status/2030372918308245783?s=46

    It would be better if more countries stepped up. Wasn’t Rutte in favor of NATO support? After all, it is a defense of multiple countries in the alliance. Considering (of course) that Ukraine is making an effort for these countries.

     

    Meanwhile, Putin continues to send missiles into residential buildings. Europe is watching.

    “There must be a response from our partners to these brutal attacks on life. I thank everyone who does not remain silent. Russia has not given up its attempts to destroy Ukraine’s homes and critical infrastructure, and therefore the support must continue. [We count on the EU].”

    — Zelensky, March 7, 2026

    https://x.com/zelenskyyua/status/2030172156978401737?s=46

    Zelensky is absolutely right. If NATO does not send troops to the Iran war, and barely even provides bases to the USA, can’t we at least use our prestigious troops to provide some backup to Ukraine, for example at the Belarusian border, a no-fly zone, and combating missiles/drones, etc.

    Come on, we’re not talking about a fully armed Iran here, are we? But about a significantly weakened Russia. And we have nuclear weapons in France and the United Kingdom.

    What are we waiting for?

    Or does Europe have a free pass when it comes to protecting our own freedom?

     

    It’s not time for squabbles about oil profits here or there. It’s about our own security fundamentally. Just as a window has opened for the people in Iran, it is not open forever. Time to act!

    2. MXT

      From day one, I have advocated that we should step in and support Ukraine, and I completely agree with that. Unfortunately, it seems like it won’t happen now either.

      Helping the USA and Israel fight against Iran, other than to protect their own bases and the population in the surrounding countries, would feel very strange if they do not actively support Ukraine at the same time.

      The USA has withdrawn its support for Ukraine, stating that Europe should take care of it. Then they start a war against Iran, and suddenly they get upset with the European countries for not wanting to help, even threatening with increased tariffs.

      Higher oil prices benefit Russia but can hit hard on Europe’s economy. This has nothing to do with quarrels but is a reality that unfortunately could also affect Europe’s economic will and ability to support Ukraine.

      But regardless, Europe should really dare to step into Ukraine, and the sooner, the better for all parties involved!

  14. Fram i Natten

    The trolls 🐐 and their herd should be destroyed.
    Hopefully the new ethnic groups will now take care of the country in a normal way.

    1. maggan

      Nice to see, but it would have been nice if they could target the factories that produce the stuff instead. Are they too far away or secret?

  19. MXT

    “💥 The invaders from the 40th Russian Marine Brigade tried to break through in the Hulyaipole direction again. A tank, APC and two quadricycles with a landing party, moving along the route Malynivka – Zeleny Hay – Hulyaipole, were discovered by “Birds of the Magyar”.”

  21. MXT

    “Ukraine destroyed a Pantsir-S1 air defense system and a BK-16 assault boat near Novoozerne in Russian-occupied Crimea on March 7-8, alongside strikes on drone control posts in occupied Crimea, Belgorod region, Zaporizhzhia, and occupied Donetsk region”

  23. MXT

    “Ukraine has this morning launched another missile attack on Donetsk. One big problem for Russia in occupied territories is there are always people who hate them and will pass info on to Ukraine. Thus, another ‘secret’ store of deadly drones was blown up.

    As with the previous strike on a drone storage area in Donetsk, it’s in the north of the city. Supernova geolocated to Kyivskyi Prospekt (Avenue). The UAVs hidden in a car service station. Missiles were used – possibly domestically produced Firepoint, or imported ATACMS.

    ” https://bsky.app/profile/twmcltd.bsky.social/post/3mgkbaqgcrs2l

  26. MXT

    “❗️Ungerska oppositionsledaren Péter Magyar påstod att Viktor Orbán bjöd in representanter för den ryska GRU till Budapest för att påverka resultaten av parlamentsvalet i Ungern den 12 april. Han uppmanade Orbán att omedelbart utvisa de ryska underrättelseofficerarna, sammanträda med det nationella säkerhetsrådet och se till att Ungern förblir en pålitlig och förutsägbar partner för sina allierade.”

  28. MXT

    “❗️Russia is helping Iran in the war: Zelenskyy reported that intelligence has recorded the transfer of certain components and technologies, in particular regarding drones. At the same time, Iran is not transferring its missiles or other weapons to Russia for strikes against Ukraine.

    Commenting on the criticism from Trump, Zelenskyy said he takes it calmly: “If you see the criticism intensifying, it means we are helping more and more.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mgkgsx73fs22“

  32. johan No.1

    Israel/USA will soon run out of targets.

    If nothing happens with the revolution, the only option left is to start others or sacrifice American lives.

    Israel probably doesn’t want to back down now, as the mullahs seem a bit eager for revenge.

    1. MXT

      It can of course be so simple. First, you take Venezuela to prevent China from accessing their oil, then you move on to Iran and really strangle one of the major suppliers. The problem is that instead, they will probably end up buying more from Russia, just like India. If China faces an oil shortage, they won’t care if the USA complains about them buying Russian oil (especially now that the USA allows India to import).

      There has been a lot written about many Russian tankers being full of oil but having nowhere to deliver. With increased prices and a large buffer, Russia becomes the big winner.

      Then one might wonder why Cuba is also in the crosshairs, they need to buy cheap oil (even though they have some small extraction themselves) and have no money to buy it expensively from the USA. They have some nickel and cobalt and are somewhat advanced in biotechnology and pharmaceuticals (for being such a poor country).

      On the other hand, it is a perfect place to build a Trump resort, so maybe that’s enough and of course the geopolitical value of taking control.

      China and Russia are unlikely to be significantly affected by anything regarding Cuba. China has invested some in solar energy, infrastructure, etc. and may perhaps lose control over it (if the USA really dares to seize it) but it has probably been more of a cost for China to strengthen its position than actually gaining anything in return. Russia also has some deals with Cuba but even there, it’s mostly about selling cheap oil.

    2. MXT

      Found information that China’s strategic oil reserves are up to 900 million barrels. China imported about 1.4 million barrels per day from Iran. With those reserves and the ability to increase purchases from Russia, they can manage for quite a while before a real crisis occurs.

      https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-oil-refiners-cushioned-iran-conflict-with-ample-iranian-russian-supply-2026-03-02/

      Additional:
      It will be Europe that is hit the hardest.
      That would, in a way, argue for us to help the USA in Iran so that the war can end quickly.. 

      1. 205

        Norway?

        Norway is one of the world’s leading oil and gas exporters, with a production of over 2 million barrels of oil per day (2024), ranked as number 12 in the world.
         
        Matches at least Iran’s exports to China. What does Europe consume? 13.5 million barrels per day. Who is buying Norway’s oil today? Apparently mostly Europe but China is growing, which may be unnecessary.
         
         So Norwegian oil is not enough with today’s production rate.
         
        🤷‍♂️
         
         
        1. MXT

          I also don’t know how much Norway can potentially increase production, but regardless, it shouldn’t be more than 10-20%, I would guess. Then the problem is much bigger than Iran’s shortfall because several others in the region are now reducing production since the strait is closed.

          So the shortage could certainly amount to 2-3 times Iran’s production.

          But maybe the USA can increase, Venezuela probably hasn’t come so far.

          We are now at 90 USD/barrel for Crude and almost 93 for Brent, I guess we will pass 100 in a few days if it doesn’t suddenly resolve in Iran.

          We’ll see how it goes.

          Lucky to have a short distance to work anyway!

    3. CB500four

      I have been thinking along the same lines. Trump wants control over the oil to China.

      One would think that China would have been more active in helping Iran. However, they have now ended up in the dilemma that Iran has blocked the Hormuz strait, so now they are surely sitting securely and flipping through Excel trying to figure out if it might be better to help the USA and Israel instead, so that Hormuz opens as soon as possible.

      However, it’s also not good if it’s the USA that controls Hormuz, it would be a nightmare for China, well, it probably wouldn’t be good for anyone.

  35. Lasse W

    A bit interesting but regarding Cuba and American Latin America politics, it seems – after some time spent on YouTube – that Marco Rubio is going to have a special role concerning Cuba. He is Spanish-speaking. There has also been an American air attack on a support point for some drug cartel in Colombia. Trump apparently plans to move forward with eradicating the cartels in Latin America. A meeting for Latin American government leaders apparently took place in Florida for that purpose. However, Mexico’s female government leader Sheinbaum was absent. Say what you want about Trump. But he is not a portfolio bearer.

    Should one have to go to YouTube to find out what is happening in the world? Swedish media has thinned out incredibly.

    Some news also from Germany where local elections have been held in Baden-Wurttemberg in the southwestern part of the country. As big as Sweden? Interesting things are happening there. According to a forecast, the Greens are expected to get 32% and AfD 18%. The Social Democrats barely exist. The three major parties in Germany are now the Greens, CDU, and AfD. If one can extrapolate from this election. It is said that the Greens in Baden-Wurttemberg have smoothed out their more extreme edges.

    1. MXT

      Yes, a bit strange if no one has written about attacks in Colombia.
      Feel free to post links if there is something you think might interest more people!

  36. MXT

    “Aerial surveillance of Kuban by Ukrainian drones has been ongoing all day. As of now, something is burning fiercely in Temryuk, likely in the terminal area. Krasnodar Krai.”

  37. MXT

    Iran’s new supreme leader will not “be long-lasting” without approval from the USA, says President Donald Trump in an interview with ABC News.

    – We want to make sure that we don’t have to go back every ten years, says Trump.

    Trump answers affirmatively to the question of whether he would approve a leader with connections to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime.

    – I would, because to choose a good leader, I would, yes. There are several people who could be qualified.

  38. MXT

    The following text has been translated from Swedish to English:

    “The U.S. Embassy in Stockholm has issued a warning to American citizens in Sweden following the overnight explosion at the embassy in Oslo.

    The text points out that there are groups that are “planning possible attacks” in Sweden. Americans are urged to be cautious around the embassy, avoid crowds, and “keep a low profile.”

    Norwegian police do not rule out that the explosion in Oslo could be an act of terrorism. Some suspects have not yet been identified.”
    https://omni.se/usa-s-ambassad-varnar-amerikaner-i-sverige/a/QJ7pox

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