Show the Fangs, 21 August 2026

Our show of strength around Kaliningrad and in the Baltic Sea area seems to be holding through the week.

Of course, it is not an exercise but a demonstration, and a good one at that.

Today might get a bit messy but builds on yesterday’s post which apparently is nominated for the Guldbagge award, I saw, thanks to everyone who voted.

(Is it real gold that can be sold?).

Why we are flying around Kaliningrad and in the Baltic Sea with up to 50 aircraft is a good question and I think we all know the answer to that.

We have gotten used to open information from Ukraine but will probably get significantly less from Europe going forward and will have to piece things together ourselves. It’s only good that we keep quiet but one can always note that Russia knows exactly what is going on so the only ones who don’t have the full picture are actually the citizens of Europe. That was also the case during the Cold War and how we operate.

The Cold War – those of you who were in wetsuits chasing Russian divers over the islets probably recognize yourselves?

Back then it was active war preparations for a war Russia was engaged in and the psyops were so extreme that today there are those who believe there were never any Russian submarines in our inner archipelago.

I spent several years sorting that out – for example that U137 did not navigate incorrectly but made an 8-second too late course change and ran aground.

The contradiction that the Soviet Union never violated us when we have photographic evidence of U137 I still find interesting.

In 1981 the Soviet Union started Operation Ryan which was intelligence gathering because they judged others by themselves and thought we would attack them, since they planned to roll over us.

The paranoia spread lightning fast, everything was overinterpreted and the USA made a big mistake in 1983 with its Able Archer exercise because they never understood how far gone the Soviet Union was. The Soviets believed there would be war and those of you who know your history somewhat know that submarine violations and sabotage against us in Sweden ran rampant during those years.

There was never a war, Sweden eventually had the world’s best anti-submarine warfare capability and after a bad decision by a German border officer in 1989 the Soviet Union made a complete belly flop in 1991, eternal peace spread out.

Now it seems we are there again, a Russian hybrid war has swept over Europe and it recently came out that Putin as early as 2025 declared that NATO and the EU shall be toppled from within.

Furthermore, Ukraine has confirmed that Russia is ready for conventional war against us in 2027.

Few doubt that the hybrid war is in full swing, we have listed most of it during July and August.

That war preparations have also been made is established – intelligence gathering against high-value targets for over two years (all drone overflights), all infrastructure in Russia towards the Baltics completed, most recently someone understood that there are 50–60 drone launchers built that can lob Gerans into the Baltics, for example.

The shadow fleet is deployed, all sea cables around Europe fully reconnoitered, live exercises for a couple of years now against water reservoirs, power production and high-value targets.

Here one must distinguish between war preparations and operations aimed at influencing us in our will to support Ukraine – both run in parallel.

A Russian offensive strategic reserve is also tangible today even though no one seems willing to believe it despite irrefutable evidence.

It is also claimed that Putin’s war line won in internal discussions and that is what we have previously written – he has been given a mandate to continue but must show a victory and has a timeline to adhere to.

The better it goes for Ukraine, the more dangerous Russia becomes for us – it is a paradox but that is how it is.

Ukraine is also doing serious damage now that we no longer stop them.

Europe has for 4.5 years been irresponsible, submissive and internally divided which is what Putin needs to have any chance to move forward.

Our reactive doctrine for the Baltics is also not functional – the shortcomings are so many that it will not work.

Starmer – Macron – Merz are still working on their plans for peace negotiations and the UK is supposed to send in as many as 600 peacekeeping soldiers to Ukraine when peace comes.

What is a victory for Putin – if he can in a week manage to cut off half of the Baltics and then clean up north of the Daugava he has achieved what he could not in Ukraine and will get continued trust.

He can only do this if we are reactive, divided, worried and have lots of other problems so we do not rally under the flag and strike back.

Something we all now know is that Russia can take almost any amount of violence, indirect capabilities do not win a war quickly and entrenched shooting is always entrenched shooting.

Our proposals were four points to help Ukraine which today are politically and diplomatically completely locked, we can do this at any time.

Number two is to build us a threshold in the Baltics so the equation does not add up for Putin – it is even easier than bringing capabilities into Ukraine. It is actually called border protection and is not particularly controversial at all even if this seems to be a hot potato no one wants to touch.

The worry is of course that Russia gets there first – I don’t think one should take chances but we have gambled throughout an entire Ukraine war even though we shouldn’t so there is some risk that we gamble.

Zelensky has, as usual, political problems but Fedorov who surely has the USA behind him really messed up with his demands for new elections. So much so that the demonstrations for him and against Zelensky ended that day.

A study in how to go from national icon to pariah in one day.

The parliament also voted through Khamara as defense minister with only 12 against after Fedorov’s outburst, he really managed to unite the country just not as he intended.

This was most likely an attempt by the Trump administration to finally politically topple Ukraine – Elon Musk weighed in and praised Fedorov on his social media.

Trump has been nagging about new elections in Ukraine since he took office and tried during his first year to discredit Zelensky with all available means so that citizens would feel Zelensky was a bad poster boy. You might remember the scolding in the Oval Office because Zelensky didn’t have a suit.

In parallel, NABU, Ukraine’s anti-corruption agency, has launched several investigations and there are good reasons to believe that the independent anti-corruption agency is not so independent and has been infiltrated by Russia.

Drapatyi as new Chief of Defense has dismissed some and we also saw resignations, I skimmed past an article that some operations have been delayed – that was expected but not so good.

https://ukranews.com/en/news/1168103-drapatyi-proposes-personnel-changes-in-army-some-decisions-prepared-zelenskyy

Zelensky has a tightrope to balance but so far it seems to be going, the second it becomes political chaos they also risk turning inward and losing momentum – Europe is certainly not risk-averse here at all.

According to earlier posts, Europe can probably handle a gradual escalation that does not go too fast and theoretically now is the start of an active hybrid war without full war such a gradual escalation?

This is the bigger picture in which this show of force in the air around Kaliningrad should be seen – we have shown our fangs.

Kaliningrad is not straightforward because there are tactical nuclear weapons in the enclave and Russia has just brought Admiral Kasatanov into the Baltic Sea, which can be equipped with tactical nuclear weapons – I don’t remember if it left again or not.

In the enclave, there are air defenses, EW systems, coastal missiles, missiles, tactical nuclear weapons but not the ground forces they would need to defend the enclave – the 11th Army Corps is in Ukraine.

Yes, there are special forces still stationed there but they number thousands, not tens of thousands.

Flying our own EW around Kaliningrad so that all technical systems started flickering and then circling around with 40 F35s probably felt in the spine.

Poland can also, without much trouble, roll over the enclave, their artillery reaches everywhere and they have ground troops easily reachable to attack from three sides.

If Europe shows that we intend to roll over Kaliningrad in the event of Russian escalation against the Baltics, it is a threshold that can act as a deterrent – if we change our behavior, it affects Russia’s decision.

Putin will try to threaten us with nuclear weapons but if we don’t fall for it, it’s a done deal.

If one has to choose between defending the Baltics or rolling over Kaliningrad if Putin attacks a weak Baltics, I can, for my part, think that the easiest would be to build that threshold in the Baltics first but apparently I am very much alone in that.

So we have probably decided to show strength, maybe?

Why we decided to do it right now, I think we also know.

– Does it work as a deterrent?

It works until it doesn’t anymore but probably Putin doesn’t want to lose Kaliningrad.

– First strike.

The fact is that in a war, someone always starts, right?

All the aircraft now circling around Kaliningrad, when they are not entertaining themselves with that, are neatly lined up at bases around Europe and are very easy targets.

If Poland hasn’t mobilized and deployed, they probably, like everyone else, have all ammunition centralized and vehicles lined up at the bases.

Now the same applies to us, if we choose a first strike, the Russian Baltic Fleet is at the quay, the targets are dormant in Kaliningrad and the shadow fleet’s Geran ships are undefended.

It is really important not to misinterpret the signals here and I’m not so risk-averse either, but in the other direction, and I can probably think that to be on the safe side, we might as well be first.

Trump tried to destroy – he removed the entire layer of coordination from Europe and fired the general responsible, besides all the offensive ground forces in Eastern Europe.

Therefore, I am very curious about what will come from the USA after this demonstration around Kaliningrad since much of the advanced capabilities were USA-piloted aircraft – will some new general be fired, will there be tariffs from Trump, or will there be orders to pull more out of Europe?

Anyway, our armed forces now seem alert and take the situation seriously – this is something we have not seen in 4.5 years – a change in behavior pattern that has an impact.

Ukraine also naturally sees this and it is an unequivocal positive for them.

It’s quite simple, I went through our capability already in 2022 – 2023 and have long established that we have several times Russia’s capability in many respects, it was at a time when everyone said we might as well lie down flat, and then when the USA withdrew that we are defenseless – not true.

But that capability must be used and be in the right place – that is what Russia is trying to prevent from happening.

Even without the USA, we are strong enough but you have also seen that all units disappeared from the Baltics which then means that we are not strong enough there, right?

Such a demonstration is then a projection of strength meant to make Putin understand that we are strong, united and have the will – very good.

Strong, united and have the will for what?

Russia does not have the capacity, capability, or the will to bring the war to us, right, according to the collective analyst community?

It is an unequivocal positive that we have shown our fangs and with a bit of luck maybe this affects Putin if we continue on the current path.

I can calmly say that the last thing I want is an expanded war and we have long understood that for this wish to be fulfilled, Russia must implode, turn inward and eat itself instead.

An expansive imperialist Russia simply does not bring eternal peace.

Ukraine will keep pushing, that is clear, and if we now in Europe get a gradual escalation where we raise the heat in the Russian samovar, there are all possibilities for a Bolshevik 2.0.

We simply cannot have both, we have to choose.