Our show of strength around Kaliningrad and in the Baltic Sea area seems to be holding through the week.
Of course, it is not an exercise but a demonstration, and a good one at that.
Today might get a bit messy but builds on yesterday’s post which apparently is nominated for the Guldbagge award, I saw, thanks to everyone who voted.
(Is it real gold that can be sold?).
Why we are flying around Kaliningrad and in the Baltic Sea with up to 50 aircraft is a good question and I think we all know the answer to that.
We have gotten used to open information from Ukraine but will probably get significantly less from Europe going forward and will have to piece things together ourselves. It’s only good that we keep quiet but one can always note that Russia knows exactly what is going on so the only ones who don’t have the full picture are actually the citizens of Europe. That was also the case during the Cold War and how we operate.
The Cold War – those of you who were in wetsuits chasing Russian divers over the islets probably recognize yourselves?
Back then it was active war preparations for a war Russia was engaged in and the psyops were so extreme that today there are those who believe there were never any Russian submarines in our inner archipelago.
I spent several years sorting that out – for example that U137 did not navigate incorrectly but made an 8-second too late course change and ran aground.
The contradiction that the Soviet Union never violated us when we have photographic evidence of U137 I still find interesting.
In 1981 the Soviet Union started Operation Ryan which was intelligence gathering because they judged others by themselves and thought we would attack them, since they planned to roll over us.
The paranoia spread lightning fast, everything was overinterpreted and the USA made a big mistake in 1983 with its Able Archer exercise because they never understood how far gone the Soviet Union was. The Soviets believed there would be war and those of you who know your history somewhat know that submarine violations and sabotage against us in Sweden ran rampant during those years.
There was never a war, Sweden eventually had the world’s best anti-submarine warfare capability and after a bad decision by a German border officer in 1989 the Soviet Union made a complete belly flop in 1991, eternal peace spread out.
Now it seems we are there again, a Russian hybrid war has swept over Europe and it recently came out that Putin as early as 2025 declared that NATO and the EU shall be toppled from within.
Furthermore, Ukraine has confirmed that Russia is ready for conventional war against us in 2027.
Few doubt that the hybrid war is in full swing, we have listed most of it during July and August.
That war preparations have also been made is established – intelligence gathering against high-value targets for over two years (all drone overflights), all infrastructure in Russia towards the Baltics completed, most recently someone understood that there are 50–60 drone launchers built that can lob Gerans into the Baltics, for example.
The shadow fleet is deployed, all sea cables around Europe fully reconnoitered, live exercises for a couple of years now against water reservoirs, power production and high-value targets.
Here one must distinguish between war preparations and operations aimed at influencing us in our will to support Ukraine – both run in parallel.
A Russian offensive strategic reserve is also tangible today even though no one seems willing to believe it despite irrefutable evidence.
It is also claimed that Putin’s war line won in internal discussions and that is what we have previously written – he has been given a mandate to continue but must show a victory and has a timeline to adhere to.
The better it goes for Ukraine, the more dangerous Russia becomes for us – it is a paradox but that is how it is.
Ukraine is also doing serious damage now that we no longer stop them.
Europe has for 4.5 years been irresponsible, submissive and internally divided which is what Putin needs to have any chance to move forward.
Our reactive doctrine for the Baltics is also not functional – the shortcomings are so many that it will not work.
Starmer – Macron – Merz are still working on their plans for peace negotiations and the UK is supposed to send in as many as 600 peacekeeping soldiers to Ukraine when peace comes.
What is a victory for Putin – if he can in a week manage to cut off half of the Baltics and then clean up north of the Daugava he has achieved what he could not in Ukraine and will get continued trust.
He can only do this if we are reactive, divided, worried and have lots of other problems so we do not rally under the flag and strike back.
Something we all now know is that Russia can take almost any amount of violence, indirect capabilities do not win a war quickly and entrenched shooting is always entrenched shooting.
Our proposals were four points to help Ukraine which today are politically and diplomatically completely locked, we can do this at any time.
Number two is to build us a threshold in the Baltics so the equation does not add up for Putin – it is even easier than bringing capabilities into Ukraine. It is actually called border protection and is not particularly controversial at all even if this seems to be a hot potato no one wants to touch.
The worry is of course that Russia gets there first – I don’t think one should take chances but we have gambled throughout an entire Ukraine war even though we shouldn’t so there is some risk that we gamble.
Zelensky has, as usual, political problems but Fedorov who surely has the USA behind him really messed up with his demands for new elections. So much so that the demonstrations for him and against Zelensky ended that day.
A study in how to go from national icon to pariah in one day.
The parliament also voted through Khamara as defense minister with only 12 against after Fedorov’s outburst, he really managed to unite the country just not as he intended.
This was most likely an attempt by the Trump administration to finally politically topple Ukraine – Elon Musk weighed in and praised Fedorov on his social media.
Trump has been nagging about new elections in Ukraine since he took office and tried during his first year to discredit Zelensky with all available means so that citizens would feel Zelensky was a bad poster boy. You might remember the scolding in the Oval Office because Zelensky didn’t have a suit.
In parallel, NABU, Ukraine’s anti-corruption agency, has launched several investigations and there are good reasons to believe that the independent anti-corruption agency is not so independent and has been infiltrated by Russia.
Drapatyi as new Chief of Defense has dismissed some and we also saw resignations, I skimmed past an article that some operations have been delayed – that was expected but not so good.
Zelensky has a tightrope to balance but so far it seems to be going, the second it becomes political chaos they also risk turning inward and losing momentum – Europe is certainly not risk-averse here at all.
According to earlier posts, Europe can probably handle a gradual escalation that does not go too fast and theoretically now is the start of an active hybrid war without full war such a gradual escalation?
This is the bigger picture in which this show of force in the air around Kaliningrad should be seen – we have shown our fangs.
Kaliningrad is not straightforward because there are tactical nuclear weapons in the enclave and Russia has just brought Admiral Kasatanov into the Baltic Sea, which can be equipped with tactical nuclear weapons – I don’t remember if it left again or not.
In the enclave, there are air defenses, EW systems, coastal missiles, missiles, tactical nuclear weapons but not the ground forces they would need to defend the enclave – the 11th Army Corps is in Ukraine.
Yes, there are special forces still stationed there but they number thousands, not tens of thousands.
Flying our own EW around Kaliningrad so that all technical systems started flickering and then circling around with 40 F35s probably felt in the spine.
Poland can also, without much trouble, roll over the enclave, their artillery reaches everywhere and they have ground troops easily reachable to attack from three sides.
If Europe shows that we intend to roll over Kaliningrad in the event of Russian escalation against the Baltics, it is a threshold that can act as a deterrent – if we change our behavior, it affects Russia’s decision.
Putin will try to threaten us with nuclear weapons but if we don’t fall for it, it’s a done deal.
If one has to choose between defending the Baltics or rolling over Kaliningrad if Putin attacks a weak Baltics, I can, for my part, think that the easiest would be to build that threshold in the Baltics first but apparently I am very much alone in that.
So we have probably decided to show strength, maybe?
Why we decided to do it right now, I think we also know.
– Does it work as a deterrent?
It works until it doesn’t anymore but probably Putin doesn’t want to lose Kaliningrad.
– First strike.
The fact is that in a war, someone always starts, right?
All the aircraft now circling around Kaliningrad, when they are not entertaining themselves with that, are neatly lined up at bases around Europe and are very easy targets.
If Poland hasn’t mobilized and deployed, they probably, like everyone else, have all ammunition centralized and vehicles lined up at the bases.
Now the same applies to us, if we choose a first strike, the Russian Baltic Fleet is at the quay, the targets are dormant in Kaliningrad and the shadow fleet’s Geran ships are undefended.
It is really important not to misinterpret the signals here and I’m not so risk-averse either, but in the other direction, and I can probably think that to be on the safe side, we might as well be first.
Trump tried to destroy – he removed the entire layer of coordination from Europe and fired the general responsible, besides all the offensive ground forces in Eastern Europe.
Therefore, I am very curious about what will come from the USA after this demonstration around Kaliningrad since much of the advanced capabilities were USA-piloted aircraft – will some new general be fired, will there be tariffs from Trump, or will there be orders to pull more out of Europe?
Anyway, our armed forces now seem alert and take the situation seriously – this is something we have not seen in 4.5 years – a change in behavior pattern that has an impact.
Ukraine also naturally sees this and it is an unequivocal positive for them.
It’s quite simple, I went through our capability already in 2022 – 2023 and have long established that we have several times Russia’s capability in many respects, it was at a time when everyone said we might as well lie down flat, and then when the USA withdrew that we are defenseless – not true.
But that capability must be used and be in the right place – that is what Russia is trying to prevent from happening.
Even without the USA, we are strong enough but you have also seen that all units disappeared from the Baltics which then means that we are not strong enough there, right?
Such a demonstration is then a projection of strength meant to make Putin understand that we are strong, united and have the will – very good.
Strong, united and have the will for what?
Russia does not have the capacity, capability, or the will to bring the war to us, right, according to the collective analyst community?
It is an unequivocal positive that we have shown our fangs and with a bit of luck maybe this affects Putin if we continue on the current path.
I can calmly say that the last thing I want is an expanded war and we have long understood that for this wish to be fulfilled, Russia must implode, turn inward and eat itself instead.
An expansive imperialist Russia simply does not bring eternal peace.
Ukraine will keep pushing, that is clear, and if we now in Europe get a gradual escalation where we raise the heat in the Russian samovar, there are all possibilities for a Bolshevik 2.0.
We simply cannot have both, we have to choose.
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Russian losses in Ukraine 2028-08-21
SLAVA UKRAINI
Ukrainian General Staff Morning Report
Operational information as of 08:00 on August 21, 2026, regarding the Russian invasion
Glory to Ukraine!
The 1640th day of the Russian Federation’s full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine has begun.
In the past 24 hours, a total of 238 combat contacts were recorded.
Yesterday, the attacker carried out a missile strike using ballistic missiles, and fired 44 cruise and air-launched missiles from air, land, and sea-based platforms. The enemy also conducted 87 airstrikes with 278 guided aerial bombs, used 10,821 kamikaze drones for attacks, and carried out 3,077 shellings against our troops’ positions and communities.
Hostile artillery shelling affected the communities of Neskuchne, Sopych, Korenok, Potapivka, Volfyne, Bezsalivka, Ulanove, and Tovstodubove in the Sumy region as well as Zoria, Buda-Vorobivska, and Yanzhulivka. The enemy also conducted an airstrike on the area around Velyka Chernechchyna.
In the past 24 hours, the defense forces’ aviation, missile units, and artillery struck six command posts for unmanned aerial vehicles as well as three areas with concentrations of enemy personnel.
In the northern Slobozhansky and Kursk sectors, our defenders repelled three enemy assault attempts during the past day. Meanwhile, the attacker conducted three airstrikes and dropped six aerial bombs. The enemy also carried out 53 shellings against our troops’ positions and communities, including two with rocket artillery.
In the southern Slobozhansky sector, Ukrainian units repelled eight enemy attacks. The attackers attempted to advance towards the communities of Lyman, Izbytske, and Okhrimivka, as well as in the area around Starytsia.
In the Kupiansk sector, the enemy conducted 15 offensive operations towards Radkivka and Hlushkivka.
Attempts to break through our defense were repelled in the Lyman sector, where the occupiers carried out six attacks towards the communities of Lyman, Novoserhiivka, and Drobysheve, as well as in the area around Novoselivka.
In the Sloviansk sector, the enemy conducted 15 assault attempts towards the communities of Ozerne, Orikhuvatka, and Rai-Oleksandrivka, as well as in the areas around Kryva Luka and Riznykivka.
In the Kramatorsk sector, the Russian attackers conducted two offensive operations in the areas around Nykyforivka and Minkivka.
In the Kostiantynivka sector, 26 attacks were recorded. The attackers conducted assault operations in the areas around Kostiantynivka, Ivanopillia, Illinivka, and Novoselivka, as well as towards Stepanivka, Dovha Balka, and Vilne.
In the Pokrovsk sector, the enemy conducted 32 attacks. The occupiers attempted to advance in the areas around Dorozhnie, Novooleksandrivka, Udachne, and Kotlyne, as well as towards the communities of Novyi Donbas, Biliakivka, Bilytske, Hannivka, Svitlé, Shevchenko, Myrne, Vasylivka, Serhiivka, and Novopavlivka.
In the Oleksandrivka sector, the attackers conducted three attacks towards Nove Zaporizhzhia as well as in the areas around Zaporizke and Rybne.
In the Huliaipole sector, the occupiers attacked our defenders’ positions 16 times. The enemy attempted to advance towards the communities of Verkhnia Tersa, Charivne, Vozdvyzhivka, Rivne, and Dolynka, as well as in the area around Bilohiria.
In the Orikhiv sector, our defenders repelled three enemy attempts to advance in the area around Plavni as well as towards Mala Tokmachka and Novoandriivka.
In the Prydniprovska sector, the enemy conducted no offensive operations.
In the Volyn and Polissya sectors, no signs have been detected that the occupiers are forming offensive force groupings.
In total, the Russian attackers’ losses in the past 24 hours amounted to 1,390 personnel. Additionally, three tanks, five armored combat vehicles, 57 artillery systems, two rocket artillery systems, four air defense systems, 12 ground-based missile systems, 39 missiles, 1,980 unmanned aerial vehicles, 551 vehicles, and eight units of special equipment were neutralized.
Join the defense forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!
** Russian aircraft suspected of violating Finnish airspace, officials say.
The report follows an uptick in Russian military flights near NATO’s eastern border, which NATO countries describe as “provocations” and acts of aggression meant to test the country’s air defenses.**
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-aircraft-suspected-of-violating-finnish-airspace-officials-say/
** ‼️ Russia: “Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, reported that, according to his information, the country’s authorities are not planning to conduct a mass mobilization.”
👀 Run **
https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social/post/3mtkjwx64u22t
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/8894156
Reverse language, then it is almost confirmed.
100%
Interesting that the AI thought it was a good idea to print the translation twice, but not the whole thing.
** The last successful deliver of diesel fuel to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was in March 2026. Since then, it has experienced multiple off-site power outages. In June, ZNPP had a 10-day supply remaining. There is not enough coverage of this situation. **
https://bsky.app/profile/malcontentnews.bsky.social/post/3mtkopxe55c2m
** Burn baby burn In Yalta [Crimea] , a forest fire has been burning for the second day. Aircraft have been deployed to help extinguish the flames. **
https://bsky.app/profile/beefeaterfella.bsky.social/post/3mtkkwmebnc23
A bit of entertainment with the Swedish translation. AI still can’t replace humans, so we’ll have to keep working for a while longer.
No criticism towards you MXT, just a finger pointed at the AI bot 🙂
Feels like it has gotten worse, many misses lately and I still changed it to a sharper model some time ago.
** In the Russian agricultural market, there’s a sense of panic… prices are plummeting… a trader is advising everyone to sit tight and wait… but no one knows what they’re waiting for… things are likely to get worse. **
https://bsky.app/profile/beefeaterfella.bsky.social/post/3mtkknbhldc23
** Meanwhile, the fuel crisis continues in Moscow. **
https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3mtkazlk6ms2i
Fedorov trying to get support from Trump to replace Zelenskyy. or is it maybe Putin and Trump using Fedorov for the same reason? 🤔
** Ex-Defense Minister Fedorov Plans US Trip for Defense Tech, Team Denies Political Meetings
In brief: Former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov is planning a US trip focused on defense technology projects, his team says, pushing back on reports linking the visit to political outreach.
“The main purpose of the trip, which is potentially being planned, is to attract resources for new projects in the field of defense tech,” Fedorov’s press service told Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne.**
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/82789
There, the credibility of J#1’s statement that Fedorov is under the wings of the USA increased.
Agree. Ominous.
Since this blog does not judge you for just one question, I am asking it because I want to hear what you think.
If we disregard that it is impossible to hold an election and probably illegal according to UA’s constitution: If Fedorov were to win the election, would that be a disaster? He is not pro-RU, right? Does he want peace regardless of whether land is ceded? What makes this a worse choice?
It is not impossible that Zelenskyy, after all these years, has become blind to what needs to be done. Not power-hungry but “blind at home” and comfortable, in the sense of not making the right decisions at the right time.
Regardless, there is a division in the country, war fatigue is beginning to spread, recruitment is probably quite difficult nowadays. Could a new leader be an injection?
No, it probably wouldn’t have been BEFORE he took this idiotic step in the middle of an ongoing war.
Now he has probably burned his chances.
** Russian Concert Promoter Bringing Kanye West to Russia Awarded Medal for Supporting Invasion
Anna Subcheva, head of the Say Agency organizing Ye’s upcoming show in Russia, holds a medal from the Russian Ministry of Defense for her active assistance to military forces during Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to Agents Media.
Subcheva serves as general director and owns a 50% stake in Say Agency, while managing partner Tatyana Kondratenko holds the remaining half. **
https://united24media.com/world/russian-concert-promoter-bringing-kanye-west-to-russia-awarded-medal-for-supporting-invasion-21876
Thank you Johan no 1 and MXT for the interesting info. But Johan had very interesting posts last night about flight movements in the Baltic Sea. Don’t miss them!
Putin has apparently canceled his annual speech to the members of the Duma and senators. Was he afraid of the questions he would get? This according to today’s episode from the YouTuber Anna from Ukraine.
Finally, one might say, when it comes to the airshow over the Baltic Sea. It’s really about time we show some muscle.
Good post from Johan as usual, of course.
Interesting info about Putin canceling the speech to the Duma. I don’t think he’s afraid of the questions; the members probably follow his lead. But maybe he doesn’t dare leave his bunker far away out of fear of being drone-attacked… Either way works for me, the more worried he gets, the better.
** ❗️Ukrainian attack drones struck the Perm Oil Refinery this morning, setting the facility ablaze. Locals reported multiple explosions and columns of smoke. The refinery has processing capacity of about 226,000-260,000 barrels per day, equivalent to roughly 13-13.1 million tons annually. **
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mtl7czt4422d
** Zelensky confirms drone attack on oil refinery in Russia’s Perm
Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed its air defenses shot down 325 Ukrainian drones overnight. **
https://kyivindependent.com/drone-attack-reported-on-oil-refinery-in-russias-perm/
Have decided that this is connected.
First, stingy with patriot interceptors.
RU gets ballistic missiles.
RU goes crazy bombing Ukraine.
Fedorov promises that everything will be fine if only elections happen.
Musk weighs in.
NABU is underway.
Now waiting for Trump’s gang to start again.
—
This is probably one of the more ambitious attempts to break Ukraine.
—
The same against us and much more is coming during the autumn.
We are doing exactly right when we have extended our claws.
We have, to say the least, an exciting period ahead of us; if we manage to avoid full-scale war and UA comes out on top, we give A++ to everyone 👍👍
Twitter has become a good information channel also for what is happening with us.
Then you have to search on Google when you know what to look for
As mentioned, now it is important to interpret all the information correctly and be prepared to make difficult decisions.
Damn.
Shithole countries!
🤬
Fuck, unfortunately rape is something that has been used in wars for a long time. It has to do with women being considered the man’s property, and punishing the enemy by raping their women.
Nowadays it is most common in primitive cultures such as Islamist and Russian cultures.
A suitable punishment for its perpetrators would be castration, without anesthesia, and cutting off the right hand, followed by a running the gauntlet.
Great that the Americans are in the game. I immediately grasp all the straws to hold on to that suggest Krasnov is wrong.
It’s about keeping the flame of hope alive.
Johan assured that Trump would be good for Ukraine, that he would want to show who’s boss. Was doubtful but went against better judgment anyway and hoped for it in the spring of 2025 but has given up on it now.
Then whether he is Krasnov or not is hard to know but if he isn’t, could he have done it so much worse?
Of course he could have, but he still has a population where the majority after all stands on Ukraine’s side, and Europe would not stand idly by if he became even worse.
You were not alone in hoping, Ukraine hoped, the EU hoped, everyone hoped.
Was it well into spring 2025 that we began to see where it was heading?
In your otherwise completely factually correct text, did you just forget my posts about Trump in the winter of 2025?
Were they pro-Trump 🧐
No, a year later you would have given up too!
Full speed in Africa as they say 😳
Am I perceived as not credible until someone else has confirmed 🧐
🧐
Everything goes wrong 😐
Don’t want to hear anything about where you came from.
A conspiratorial thought. We have previously discussed alternative targets for the Russian devils besides the Baltics. If one now feels that we are serious and actually intimidated by the threats against Königsberg in the event of an attack on Estonia or Latvia, maybe they dust off the backup plan and aim for Svalbard.
Will we be just as resolute in a confrontation up there in the north?
Our countries might sigh with relief and respond with harsh words and low-key reactions.
Then the USA could claim that Europe is unable to completely clear the house and therefore, as a pure precautionary measure, must intervene militarily in Greenland.
https://www.sverigesradio.se/avsnitt/ryssland-testar-natos-svaga-punkt-grans
Perhaps Svalbard will not quite be the same test of NATO, but the scenario as such does not feel unrealistic at all. Putin and Trump can both get what they want and increase their geopolitical sphere of interest.
I used to believe in Svalbard earlier when Russia might possibly keep the land they conquer. I don’t think so anymore; they want a war where afterwards they can say that NATO did not take Russian land, meaning they pushed NATO back at the border, VICTORY!
Yes – Svalbard, the Kurils, Africa, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, all of them are possible as well.
Putin needs something to show off.
Iceland should probably join the EU immediately.
If we manage to protect the Baltics now, Putin will just move on somewhere else until his sh*t country falls apart.
hope the election in ru will be a big protest
😀 Hopefully, one can understand.
”The election” doesn’t matter, it’s the vote counters that do.
Of course, it annoys the average Joe if everyone he knows voted for non-Putin, but he still gets 99%.
This year he might be especially eager to show strength, maybe it will be 107%? 😄
No opponent is allowed to participate, then it is quite simple.
Unfortunately, there is a high risk that China could become a serious competitor in this area. It will probably be a while before they can surpass the USA, Taiwan, and South Korea when it comes to the most advanced chips, but when China as a dictatorship decides on something, they can push it hard without needing to worry about generating profit until many years later. Projects that ordinary companies do not dare to take a chance on because they are too expensive.
👍💪
Bildt says what it was 😀👍
Good that more people speak out. Even if it is obvious.
Unfortunately, Bildt is always wrong. So there probably haven’t been any planes up there. ☹️
😂
That wwwwasss veerrrry meannn.
😆 You could really hear him. 👍
I think it’s obvious with everything everyone says and has said – not very difficult to piece together if you’ve followed this somewhat.
Russia has some mischief in the making and the Baltics are well positioned, in the near term. Whether it’s sabotage, drones, green men, or a full attempt to invade, we don’t know.
We chose to bare our claws and make it clear that if Kaliningrad goes down – this is the first time we’ve scraped with our claws so we have changed our behavior pattern.
I have tried to look for information about Russian transports to Kaliningrad, Belarus, or Pskov – find nothing.
Have also scanned if the Baltics or Finland have raised readiness, find nothing either.
So it’s not entirely clear to me exactly what prompted our show of force. Kastanov escorted an LNG ship into Kaliningrad but it doesn’t feel like an impending war?
It’s unannounced and it’s not a pre-announced exercise in northern Finland, Gotland, or western Baltics – it’s licking the border to Kaliningrad with a very powerful first strike package and turning on full effect on the EW weapons so their air defense just flickered.
The pressure on Europe internally is enormous now – politically, sabotage, terrorist attacks, protests, psyops, and in autumn there will probably be some financial crisis if it can be triggered.
So far we have shown strength – even Gripen was flying around Kaliningrad. Flew down from Källinge.
The other thing you may have noticed – the media writes nothing, the politicians are silent, the generals are silent.
This is VERY GOOD.
—
Hot take – Russia doesn’t jab at Sweden because they don’t want to make us even angrier than we are today. However, they want a change of government. Not because the new government will be pro-Russian but because they think it can’t get any worse than this one.
—
The second thing running parallel is an ambitious attempt by the USA to politically topple Ukraine – Fedorov, NABU, no interceptors.
So it’s not possible to get NK ballistic missiles in within a week, so everything has been planned over a long time.
When UA knocked out Russian artillery, the USA stopped the precision air force for a long time so FAB became kings.
Same again.
—
We could be at the point where this becomes the EU’s baptism by fire – so far it looks good.
Will there be more – absolutely.
As Pehr writes above, RU will just jump on something else instead if the Baltics are closed.
—
On the other hand, I think we are making it difficult for ourselves – instead of protecting the border in the Baltics, we fly everything we have around Kaliningrad. Both work but we assume that RU prioritizes not losing Kaliningrad which is a qualified gamble. If we defend the Baltics, we don’t need to make any assumptions at all.
—
From now on, it’s about the military and civil administration being alert, because for this to work we need to anticipate Russian actions and not get it wrong.
Will we succeed in doing that – probably.
—
I think we have seen an attempt by Europe to rise up?
—
Keep an eye on the Trump administration now – at least half the effort this week was USA-led with a lot of American capability.
If generals get fired, will Trump demand everything pulled back next week, will there be tariffs, has the EU insulted him again?
You can be COMPLETELY SURE that Putin has called Trump 40 times and loudly complained about this, completely sure.
—
Trump has a thin line to balance and can’t do just anything.
Putin doesn’t need an EU that rises up in this way, then he will quickly weaken internally.
—
On Monday I will of course dive into how it could go for the EU if we play our hand the right way.
—
Don’t know if you’ve followed but the Russian Northern Fleet is out and about so Norway has now said that they will respond to everything with overwhelming force – for Norway to leave the oil billions and start talking about war, Svalbard probably needs to be threatened because otherwise they don’t seem to care 😀
Interesting post today, really.
Europe and NATO are finally showing Russia that we know what they are up to, and we will not tolerate just anything.
Regarding Trump, what you write is up to the test. If he starts conditioning Patriot on the presidential election in Ukraine, or if he begins pulling more troops out of Europe, it is time for us to say “Mr. Krasnov, go fuck yourself.” I believe there are still some sensible people within the administration or the army who can put a stop to the “hostile takeover” the Trump regime is attempting.
MXT I just need to understand one thing – we have often discussed whether RU intends to escalate and you have been clear that “there is a 95% chance that it will not happen”.
Is your thought then that it does not happen because Europe ensures that it does not happen or because Russia does not dare, does not have the capability, or does not plan it?
Analysts and the Media have been very clear that –
-Russia never dares to test NATO/Europe.
-Russia does not have the capacity to do anything because they are tied up in Ukraine.
Over time, even the analysts’ views have shifted – “not before 2030” to “2029” to them starting to launch drones into the Baltics and Poland in the near future.
Everyone just recalibrates on the day when planning for something like that spans several years and is not a spur-of-the-moment decision at all.
—
I have gotten the impression that it has been your line – if something happens, it will be against Ukraine that the escalation occurs.
Sometimes you talk about -stans and that RU might enter (which they are definitely planning, including Svalbard).
But our Kaliningrad flight is not to deter Russia from entering Georgia.
—
After all the statements in the past month where various leaders have been clear that if RU increases against the Baltics or Poland we will respond with force closely followed by this, I am of the opinion that RU absolutely has a far advanced plan.
—
Now that Europe has responded with this, in their view it is equivalent to sending in units in the Baltics – they hope to achieve the deterrent effect.
—
I am actually still a bit torn, the whole argument actually hinges on Putin being in sufficiently good condition to understand that we will strike back or that he does not do as in Ukraine and is prepared for any sacrifices.
It is important that we read Putin correctly and that we have a backup plan if we have misread him.
I would very much like to see us strengthen the Baltics’ eastern border as well but probably it is politically easier to do what we have now done – I do not know.
—
After all, Bild leaked our plan closely followed by a week of saber-rattling which in plain language is our plan if the BALTICS are attacked – why now?
Note that it is not at all limited to missiles/drones but that RU follows up with a ground invasion.
The quotes are from the military so nothing pulled out of a hat by Bild.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/82637
—
The flights I have posted are not only around Kaliningrad, we have shown ourselves in –
-Romania.
-Moldova.
-Kaliningrad.
-The Baltic Sea.
-The Atlantic outside Norway
-The Baltics
-Finland.
So we have shown strength over the entire area for a week.
—
Poland also now seems to be increasing readiness for air defense and air force when RU makes an operation against Ukraine.
https://mezha.net/eng/bukvy/edaa4052_poland_scrambles_fighter/
That probably requires a slightly longer answer, so I will get back to you. But briefly, I would give it a 5% chance that there will be a larger attack against the Baltics where they actually intend to hold their ground. A smaller number of green men as a provocation, however, seems much more likely to me.
The fact that we have been circling around Kaliningrad does not necessarily mean that there have actually been indications that Russia is about to do something, but speculations that it might happen (you are not the only one worried about it) may be enough for them to want to show off.
Then again, we are so sensitive that the plans may have already been made in the spring of 2023..😀
I have, as I have said all along, fully supported strengthening the border against Russia and am as frustrated as you are when it comes to that.
Even though the risk of something happening is small, we need to show strength.
Of course, there is also the risk that Putin would exploit this internally to show that NATO now openly threatens Russia (or some similar nonsense). A difficult balancing act.
On the other hand, I have long insisted that we should send troops to Ukraine, so I don’t buy the argument that we shouldn’t provoke Russia, and I would gladly like to see troops in the Baltics.
yes of course exactly like that 👍
Imagine if Ukraine managed to break through at the Dnieper and push down onto Crimea 🧐
Then Putin’s days are probably over.
NATO high-ranking officials to Ukraine in October.
https://united24media.com/world/natos-top-military-body-is-coming-to-ukraine-for-first-time-in-8-years-21883
The security situation in Europe has probably not been this tense since the Cold War in the 1980s?
The family wanted me to buy bread on the way home yesterday, so I took the opportunity to buy a one-liter Presidente – felt like I needed to calm my nerves after all the bookings of 32 flights now over the vacation we are only halfway through. Since I am suffering from the aftermath of having remodeled a bit in a kitchen, every krona is worth its weight in nickel.
“No, I don’t want any beer” turned into me standing with some dregs left in the bottle, so I’m taking new steps today and reinforcing with more volume so it’s enough for me too 👍
The problem is that if I account for unexpected tapping of the beer keg that doesn’t come, I just end up drinking it all instead, so it’s a balancing act.
If the spirit is not strong, the flesh is weak.
Everything is weak 😐
Instead of the constant holiday binge, it’s probably time for the more modest Friday buzz. I’m doing my part — Would you like to know more? 🍹
👍🍻
Owl concert in about an hour, so it will probably be a bit invigorating.
Wasn’t it the case that he was going to stop touring soon?
Hope it will be a great concert!
“It is my first last tour”
Magnus Uggla?
Claes Uggla
Hoa Hoa bandola band.
Summarizes the Russian devils’ illegal terror war against Ukraine in a very good way.
https://youtu.be/LAgPRfsHn7I?is=3gbTN7XFJjfbFNJ0
To whatever effect it may have had, the UN has now begun to react to Russia’s attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine. The UN’s special spokesperson on these issues, Stephane Dujarric, states that they are a clear violation of human rights and dignity. The UN has also had a person on the ground in Kiev, Tom Fletcher, who has seen with his own eyes how the Russian targeting has looked and reported back to the UN.
Look there, the UN has woken up!👍
(They have of course given criticism and condemned the war earlier but they are still unusually quiet and should be much more aggressive).
That was a bit unexpected and very good 😀👍
Good if Russia gets pushback on several fronts. Many small streams make a big river, as the saying goes. Have a nice weekend!
👍
Wish you the same!
UN, do they still exist?
The UN exists but is nowadays mostly a kind of organ for the third world, that is, the small countries of the world. A counterbalance to the world’s great powers (you decide which ones). But the many small countries can be vulnerable to abuses from larger countries, as in the Ukraine conflict. And countries like Russia can certainly be sensitive to what smaller countries in South America, Africa, and Asia think. So what happens in the UN can probably have its significance.
Were we right about the NK soldiers?
The last sentence…
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4156346-north-korea-sends-additional-troops-to-russia-including-drone-operators-ukrainian-intel.html
Certainly, Charles Myers is a former advisor to the USA’s former president Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, so one might possibly see it as a partisan submission.
However, I do not trust Krasnov for a second. Right now, though, I do not believe the Tsar is particularly interested in a ceasefire.
“A forced ceasefire could become Ukraine’s – and Europe’s – nightmare.
It would also drive wedges into the relationship between Europe and the USA.
But much indicates that it could become reality, predicts one of the USA’s most experienced advisors.
It is a pitch-black picture for Ukraine and Europe.
A ceasefire that strengthens Russia while the threats remain and the European ties to the USA deteriorate further. From the already low level they are at.
The grim analysis is made by Charles Myers. He is a former advisor to the USA’s former president Joe Biden and has worked closely with Hillary Clinton. He now runs his own international political consulting firm.
Unlike several other Western analysts, he believes that the USA has done everything in its power to defend Ukraine. The USA wants Ukraine to be an independent and sovereign country. But President Trump wants to force a ceasefire. However, the conditions are unlikely to be met with cheers in the European capitals.
– It will end with a forced peace. Ukraine will be forced to give up land, Russia will overnight gain access to its frozen assets in the USA, American companies will get free access to the Russian market again, and the USA will control the reconstruction, says Charles Myers.
A fund to finance the reconstruction has already been established. According to Charles Myers, the USA will demand control over it and at the same time reimburse itself for costs the USA has incurred during the war.
If his analysis comes true, it is in many respects bad news for both Ukraine and Europe. It will surely sting badly.
Russia would continue to be a major threat to the European borders.
– Such a ceasefire would mean that Russia is rewarded. That they are strengthened, says Myers.
The USA has previously considered letting Russia keep all the violently occupied territories. Plus a little more.
It would be like letting a bank robber keep the loot and also get an extra sack of money from the bank he planned to rob next, if only he promises to stop robbing. At least for the moment.
Letting Russia keep the occupied territories would also send the signal that aggressive war pays off. A Pyrrhic victory someone might say, since hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers have been killed at the front, but Russia does not see it that way. A victory is a victory.
And if you have won a victory, dearly bought admittedly, why not try to win more? What speaks against Russia wanting to test how much truth there really is in NATO’s “all for one” slogan? They have already tested readiness with drones in the Baltics, cyber sabotage, and destroyed underwater cables. The temptation would surely be great for an empire dreamer to poke a little at Europe’s borders.
A forced ceasefire of this kind would still be hardest for Ukraine. The country that has paid a high price to defend Europe’s borders. How hard must it not be if all years of sacrifices were in vain?
The USA could in the long run force a ceasefire. A stranglehold on Ukraine would be the easy (for the USA), a stranglehold on Russia would be the right one.
What could prevent this dark scenario is a solid and joint European cooperation. That supports Ukraine and punishes Russia and the many countries that still trade with them and thereby contribute to the war chest. But Europe unfortunately has difficulty cooperating when it comes to concrete actions. We are also deeply dependent on big brother on the other side of the Atlantic. Who would surely take some extra schadenfreude in European suffering, as the Trump administration considers us Europeans nothing but freeloaders hitching a ride on the USA both militarily and in business.
Therefore, it would not be particularly surprising if it still ends up being Ukraine that pays the highest price for the war they never asked for.”
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/kolumnister/a/5pyJAW/joma-pavingad-vapenvila-i-ukraina-kan-bli-mardrom-for-europa
That is what one is afraid will happen.
Johan suspects that Europe is on the same track, to stop the war, and if that is true, that could become a reality.
Ukraine cannot stand against it alone for very long either.
I know. We just must not be so stupid. Give EVERYTHING that Ukraine needs. They are doing the job for us and we are ungrateful.
Make sure to transfer the frozen money to the EU from Belgium and then to Ukraine.
Yes, that frozen money should have been received a long time ago!
OB club
👍💪
👍👊 Sweden buys Taurus from Germany then we donate them to Ukraine along with Meteor just in time for when Gripen has arrived!
VERY good idea 👍
👍👍
”At least six people were killed and over 90 injured in a Russian attack on a shopping mall in the Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih on Friday.
“A completely cynical and abhorrent attack was carried out by the Russians against an ordinary shopping mall,” writes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a post on X.
Joakim Magnå/TT
Published 17:35
Updated 17:53
The latest information on the injured and dead comes from Oleksandr Hanzha, governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Shops inside the shopping complex caught fire during the attack.
“The attack drones struck in two waves – half an hour after the first hit and the fire, a second attack targeted the rescue personnel,” writes Zelensky.
Videos, which have not been verified, on social media appear to show what Zelensky describes. There, a second drone is seen crashing into the already burning and smoking building, reports the news agency AFP.
The industrial city of Kryvyi Rih, which is Volodymyr Zelensky’s hometown, has repeatedly been in the crosshairs of Russia. It is located about sixty kilometers from the front line.
Among the many injured are six children, according to the president.
“Attacks like these are nothing less than acts of terrorism. And the world must respond to them accordingly – with real pressure on the attacker,” writes Zelensky.”
https://www.svd.se/a/8pjzXE/fem-doda-i-rysk-attack-mot-kopcentrum
😥🤬
**Ukraine takes Soviet BRDM-2s from its stockpiles and rebuilds them into remote-controlled robots – a Mercedes diesel engine under consideration
Ukraine is converting Soviet armored reconnaissance vehicles of the BRDM-2 model into remote-controlled robot platforms with a heavy weapon module.
Ukraine is giving its stored Soviet armored vehicles new life as robots that fight without crews. Ukrainian manufacturers are converting Soviet-made BRDM-2 vehicles into remote-controlled platforms for frontline use after testing. This is stated by Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn from the Defense Forces’ Central Directorate for Innovation to Ukrinform.
The project transforms outdated Soviet stockpiles into unmanned platforms that keep soldiers away from danger. Ukraine has a large number of BRDM-2s in its reserves. Converting them into remote-controlled robots is part of a larger effort to delegate the most dangerous tasks on the battlefield to machines.
The rebuilt vehicle fights without a crew onboard
The platform will have enhanced capability to integrate a remote-controlled combat module with automatic weapons of at least 12.7 mm caliber. This is intended to increase unit effectiveness and help save soldiers’ lives, says Voloshyn. “The most important thing is to preserve personnel lives,” he emphasized. The vehicle is equipped for remote control. The modernized vehicle will have cameras for day and night use for situational awareness, remote control systems for its main functions, as well as positioning, navigation, and orientation systems. The combat module is integrated via protected data channels.
Upgrades go deep
The rebuild involves more than just adding a remote control. Ukraine is developing the capability to operate the vehicle from up to 1,000 kilometers away. There are also plans to replace the Soviet gasoline engine from GAZ with a powerful foreign diesel engine. Engines from General Motors or Mercedes are being considered, along with an automatic transmission, according to Voloshyn.
The vehicle will also receive modern protection. It will be equipped with additional mine protection under the hull, tubeless high-mobility tires, an extra remote control system inside the chassis, and fragmentation protection, says Voloshyn.
Work is accelerating
Preparations are underway to test the vehicle and deploy it at the frontline, according to the Ukrainian colonel. He did not specify an end date and explained that some information about such projects is not intended for public disclosure. A specific event on the battlefield has accelerated the timeline. After a particular combat incident, work is to be sped up, says Voloshyn. He adds that the modernized BRDM-2 “very well could become a breakthrough on the frontline.”**
https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/08/21/ukraine-takes-soviet-brdm-2s-from-its-stockpile-and-rebuilds-them-into-remote-robots-with-a-mercedes-diesel-under-consideration/
👍
Smart
The four-day-long Swedish festival in the Hanseatic city of Wismar is in full swing. It is apparently the biggest Swedish party abroad.
Oh, to be there!
Caroleans and Swedish flags everywhere!
https://x.com/DennaTyska/status/2090843276781744482
They are extremely nostalgic for Sweden.
Pictures of Gustav II Adolf everywhere.
proud of Sweden, in Germany
You were quick 😀
Sometimes the lightning stands still when the MXT moves!
A little less clear what you are doing.
Mxt, when you press reply it becomes a new post.
all day.
do we really have to lose the war 🧐
Obviously, if it depends on you and your lack of ability to respond to posts instead of starting new ones. 😆
You were also driving an iPhone, right?
Speaking of Friday. I don’t know what the genre is called (if it has a name), but there is a short film where someone has manipulated the movie about Hitler in the bunker with Bruno Ganz in the lead role. The subtitles have been changed so that the scene is about Hitler’s problems understanding a famous textbook in electrodynamics (Jackson). I haven’t read this one, but it’s definitely funny if you’ve struggled with something similar. Anyone interested?
All those variants are wonderful.
I myself play guitar and there is a wonderful version where Hitler is completely desperate because he can’t find the perfect “sound”.
Post yours and I will look for mine!
https://youtu.be/dwEsjN6BEaE?si=7dRH93EB40WhZpgC
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mm-4PltMB2A&feature=youtu.be
Must admit that for once I feel some sympathy for old Adolf… 😂
Yes, you get a touch of compassion.
Fucking Bessel functions.
Go work for a financial company or bank.
😂
I had to look up the favorite Kvarken and the Jaguar. It has a couple of chapters that get you ready to apply for a job at Nordea! 😂
I think I recognize myself there, but it’s terribly vague. Starting to get forgetful.
We like that 👍👍
The daughter shook hands with Crown Princess Victoria 👑 today, so she didn’t plan to wash her right hand for a long time.
Finland’s cause is ours! 💪
+1
Dares he not mobilize?
A big shitty nation seeks help from a small, even shittier nation…
Russia’s hope is thus once again North Korea.
“Russia’s president Vladimir Putin may ask North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un to send an additional 50,000 soldiers to Russia, according to the deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service HUR, Vadym Skibitskyj, to CNN. Putin may, according to the assessment, make the request when the two leaders meet in September. This would represent a significant expansion of the countries’ military cooperation and be another sign that Russia’s resources are heavily strained, writes the TV channel. According to the intelligence service’s assessment, the North Korean soldiers would not fight on Ukrainian territory, but instead reinforce Russian positions behind the front. The information is denied by Kim’s sister Kim Yo Jong, who calls it a ‘baseless and fabricated scenario.’ So far, about 25,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to Russia.”
https://omni.se/a/n1BjjB
✊✊
Now
So, if you press reply to a thread comment, it becomes a new comment at the bottom – that’s what I meant and yes iPhone
Responding with iPhone 13 iOS 26.6.1 Safari.
Works great for me?
Running a Bell Mk 1:1876 Special edition.
Is Israel fighting with Turkey now?
Seems like the only somewhat lasting agreement of significance that Trump has managed to secure so far is falling apart. Like all other agreements and promises that man makes.
😳
🤩🤩
Is Turkey on the move now?
Israel probably needs to quickly get a handle on Netanyahu.
impossible to quarrel with everyone and the USA at the same time
✅
He passed the best before date many years ago. A more polished and hawkish Trump personality who used his political situation to enrich himself and then ended up in the position that corrupted heads of state find themselves in. If he does not continue to lead the country, justice will catch up with him.
The Kurdish sheep are at the forefront of this
Good morning
According to reports, Ukrainian forces are said to have given the Russian devils a good lesson in FAFO and carried out a drone attack on a major oil refinery in Novokuybyshevsk and an Ozon logistics center in Chapayevsk in Russia’s Samara oblast during the night of August 22, 2026. The refinery, one of Russia’s ten largest, and the logistics center caught fire, marking one of the first direct attacks on an Ozon facility 900 kilometers from the front line.
**Major oil refinery and Ozon logistics center ablaze after reported Ukrainian attack
August 22, 2026 05:07
• 2 min read
By Dmytro Basmat
Major oil refinery and Ozon logistics center ablaze after reported Ukrainian attack
An alleged photo of a fire raging at an OZON logistics center in Russia’s Samara oblast during the night of August 22, 2026, following a reported Ukrainian attack. (Exilenova_plus/Telegram)
Listen to this article or download for later
2 min
This audio was created with AI assistance
Editor’s note: This is an ongoing event and is being updated continuously.
Ukraine’s military has reportedly launched an attack on Russia’s Samara oblast during the night of August 22. The attack is said to have hit a key oil refinery as well as an Ozon logistics center, Russian Telegram channels report.
Photos and videos posted on social media by local residents appear to show thick, black smoke rising from the oil refinery in Novokuybyshevsk after a reported attack.
The refinery’s capacity amounts to 8.8 million tons of oil per year. This makes it one of the ten largest refineries in Russia, which Ukraine has previously described in detail following a separate attack on the facility. The plant produces gasoline, diesel fuel, and heating oil.
[Play video]
The response later in the night was that a large fire was also seen breaking out at a warehouse in the neighboring city of Chapayevsk. The facility reportedly belongs to the Russian e-commerce giant Ozon, which is the main competitor to Russia’s Wildberries. The attack appears to be the first case where Ukrainian forces have directly targeted an Ozon facility.
The communities are located about 900 kilometers (560 miles) from the front line in Ukraine. Although it was not immediately clear what type of weapons were used in the reported attack, Kyiv’s forces regularly launch long-range drone attacks on targets deep inside Russia.
The Kyiv Independent could not immediately verify the reports. Ukraine’s military has not yet commented on the attack.
The extent of the damage caused was not immediately known.
The latest Ukrainian attack comes just one day after President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed an attack on Russia’s oil refinery in Perm during the night of August 21, a city about 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) from Ukraine.**
https://kyivindependent.com/major-oil-refinery-logistics-center-set-ablaze-in-reported-ukrainian-attack/
👍
”In January, the US Army established a new drone battalion in Europe to meet the future of warfare.
But now the unit is being phased out as the Pentagon wants to go ‘back to basics.’
The move is now facing criticism from several military experts, reports the Wall Street Journal – ‘It does not inspire confidence in the US Army’s technological development regarding drone capability,’ says military expert Joakim Paasikivi.”
https://efn.se/usa-skrotar-ny-dronarbataljon-expert-inger-inte-fortroende
Back to basics can be expanded upon, back to bow and arrow, or maybe stone throwing?