We are getting closer and closer to a global conflict; when or if it breaks out, of course, no one knows, but when it erupts, everyone gets drawn in and the war takes on a life of its own.
At some point, no current head of state can handle the situation anymore, and the plume of smoke expands exponentially.
Sometimes I watch films from different countries about WW1 and WW2 showing ordinary working civilians handling some then-popular handheld weapon in the country where the film takes place, and then they sit right in the middle of the chaos. Alternatively, the film is about the enormous mosaic of all civilian life stories that exist in a war.
You stand on a dusty gravel field, five years pass in total chaos where you become good at what you do, one day you hand in your weapon, come home to nothing, and have to try to find yourself again.
Ukraine is closest to him, and there the war has also been absolutely ruthless, but we often forget that until February 2022, almost everyone now employed by the Armed Forces were ordinary work ants just like us who had a job to go to, bills at the end of the month, and children who were the worst in the toddler team.
Those of you who have followed the posts since 2022 know that I advocated for us to help Ukraine defeat Russia so that the war would not come to us. For 4.5 years, that has been the logical thing to do, but we have not done it.
The other line has been that for quite some time we could have extinguished the grass fire that was a global conflict if Russia had been flattened properly – then China would have crawled back into its hole and waited its time.
Before a war, everyone is partly worried about taking the decisive step into the fog but also believes in their own ability and the opponent’s inability – that seems to be a natural law.
When both have stood for a while swinging their swords, it often becomes a starting shot for a long-drawn-out war instead of the smashing victory they imagined, and then production lines, adaptation, and numbers matter.
The US has the luxury of being able to withdraw and demand a time-out; we in Europe do not have that since we share a land border with Russia, which does not care about our time-outs.
Now, summer 2026, we have an acute shortage of interceptors against ballistic missiles, Ukraine gets some help but we can do much more, we handle hybrid warfare quite poorly, and we have not caught up with drone weapons yet.
2022 – 2024 was a disaster on our part; no need to repeat it, but there we probably lost the chance to stamp out the grass fire.
For over a year, I have discussed Europe’s defense of the Baltics, which is an obvious escalation vector where our reactive defense plan is full of flaws, and that we should then counter it with shooting into the Baltics that digs in. The Supreme Commander seems to have blocked me on Twitter now, but that visitation ban was a bit much; I thought I was polite to his wife.
What would naturally work just as well is if Europe delivers the first strike – instead of waiting for the shadow fleet to open its drone cassettes and Gerans flood our air/naval bases together with the ballistic missiles we cannot shoot down, we strike first.
The shadow fleet, the Baltic Sea fleet, Kaliningrad, and all unit concentrations in the vicinity of the Baltics’ eastern border become targets for fire along with the missile launchers we can reach.
We know where all the targets are because we keep track, and if we deliver the first strike, we take away half of Russia’s spear; Putin is left with a blunt shaft and looks surprised.
That does not give us peace in our time at all, but it buys us time, and we have then left the twilight zone so every politician in Europe must start doing their jobs; the gray zone to hide in is gone.
Russia will also need to build up capabilities for the Baltics, which with our reactive doctrine would work perfectly, but if we fight them on the roads, it will be like in Ukraine – a bloodbath.
At least we have reached the point where Europe should consider its options because now Russia has reached the level where they bring surface combatants and submarines into the Baltic Sea; those with the longest endurance come first.
The second sign is that the Baltic Sea fleet leaves the quay, and the last warning we get is when units at the northern front start preparing for movement – then it’s on.
Trump’s withdrawal of the heavy battalion in Võru was for me a strong indicator; now, he also feverishly raved yesterday about the US completely leaving NATO?
I also believe that if the EU shows strength, it weakens Putin but also Trump – especially Trump will be forced into a bitter betrayal debate before the midterm elections, which wouldn’t be so bad.
I think many of the American readers on my Substack would cartwheel around the garden in pure joy if we could assist with that.
If Ukraine can match that with renewed motivation and push full asymmetric warfare, there are good reasons to believe that Russia will turn inward.
Ukraine is trying as best they can, but we are almost sabotaging them so far.
Good if we wait until mid-October so I can finish flying in Europe and be back in the Dominican Republic, but otherwise, just get started; I have emailed the Supreme Commander good dates for war along with my flight tickets just so it doesn’t go wrong.
This article from the Guardian echoes our concerns broadly.
The mistake everyone makes is comparing us with Russia and Putin when they have already clearly shown to be completely without limits.
They went from a golden era where we bought all their oil, LNG, and what came out of the ground for euros they could build the country with but chose war and misery – just there the juice mixers should be flashing red.
In Ukraine, they have shown willingness to make any sacrifice, zero care for their own units just like during the Soviet era and WW2.
Mine clearance during WW2 was to attack broadly with infantry straight over the minefields, then the engineers came and dug up the anti-tank mines after the anti-personnel mines had detonated closely followed by the armor.
The infantry lost was not proportionally more than if they had tried to clear first or attacked mechanized directly – they chose the easiest way forward without hesitation, and the infantry cleared the anti-personnel mines with their feet.
From 2022 onward, it was ethnic cleansing – every little hole had a torture center where they raped, tortured, and murdered everyone they could get to, children as young as five years old.
Sexual sadistic murderers right out to the fingertips who think torture and murder of children is good. Yes, they absolutely will not go to heaven, but that does not make the murdered children any happier.
Prisoners of war come back as empty shells, castrated, raped daily during captivity, amputated, starving, and mentally completely unable to continue living – standard for both civilians and military, men and women.
All children who can be kidnapped and then sent out into the trafficking chain in Russia, ending up in the sex industry or alternatively in training camps where the army of the future is formed to fight against Ukraine – hundreds of thousands of children.
If you think this is geographically limited to Ukraine, you are not smart.
Exactly the same is happening in Africa now, but you read nothing about it. Russia’s Africa corps is establishing itself either with an evil government or an evil opposition – they choose the worst, that is the common thread. Right now they are massively strengthening something in Africa, an airlift is going there.
Then the soldiers get free rein to live out their sexual sadism, so some countries in Africa have it significantly worse than Ukraine now, but the world keeps sleeping.
Sure, we are a bit early in the game and no one is worried, I have started to think about what a global conflict means for me – jobs, travel, interest rates, currencies and all that. That’s probably the first thing you worry about because money in your wallet to buy food for four children will be needed in both peace and war.
Before Russia has reached the Dominican Republic, I will have caught up with a new escape plan, I feel secure in that. What do you think about Peru?
But what happens if you yourself are mobilized?
You, as a man/woman or other gender identity, receive a conscription order in the mailbox. A dividing line is naturally whether you are called up for a support function or a combat unit that will be sent eastward.
Sitting at an air surveillance post on Gotland for three years would make anyone a pacifist, but making a difference on a drone-saturated battlefield is, if you are unlucky, a guaranteed death sentence – probably lucky that you don’t get to choose and that the choice is made for you.
We are at the last obstacle now and Putin is considering whether it is time to try to jump over it; Europe then has to choose between lying on its back or taking the fight.
If you have followed my posts, you know that Russia has brought two destroyers into the Baltic Sea together with a submarine from the Northern Fleet.
There is possibly a frigate as well, or they have confused destroyers with frigates, not clear yet. Also possible that one has already left.
Russia’s largest nuclear-armed surface combat ship has also left the quay in Murmansk and is circling north of Norway together with a brand-new submarine that was not allowed to be named Kursk.
Why Russia is doing this when Ukraine has bombed away Novorossiysk is a good question if you ask it; they should be moving the Baltic Fleet via Denmark up to Murmansk instead of protecting it – not the other way around.
In recent weeks, our naval reconnaissance aircraft have hovered over the Baltic Sea daily and the Danish battalion’s transport ferry was escorted by one of our corvettes, and probably a submarine.
The day before yesterday there was a really impressive show-of-force over Kaliningrad with a lot of aircraft in the air around the enclave, and those were only the ones with transponders on that we saw. Some claim that as many as 50 aircraft were in the air.
Various ships from the Russian shadow fleet have positioned themselves in places outside their naval routes and have dropped anchor, but our fleets are monitoring them.
To say that the Baltic Sea suddenly became lively is no understatement at all; probably our pilots and naval personnel feel it is twilight – I think the strong escort of the Danish battalion’s equipment revealed that they see a high threat level and are not taking chances.
Now today it is very difficult to see what Europe will choose when the choice needs to be made, probably then with a burning euro, fallen governments, constant demonstrations and a wave of layoffs at the same time – but if we choose war, what happens then?
It will not be 25,000 from our Armed Forces who reconquer the Baltics and then go to war with Russia anyway – we will, just like Ukraine, have to fight with mass mobilization and then you go along.
What Sweden should do already now is to sharply plan for this.
We need uniforms, AK5s, anti-tank weapons, radios and equipment for a few hundred thousand that must be procured, manufactured and delivered. In addition, we need the drone weapon down at the group level in the organizations. We have traditional capabilities, albeit barely.
We need a popular campaign to tell us why we should go to our children and wife/husband and explain that it is time to go to something we may not come back from – what is the reason.
It is very easy to say that you stand up for Ukraine and the Baltics, but when you stand with the paper in your hand and the destination is to land in the Baltics and take Moscow – then it suddenly becomes reality for you, your better half will explain to you that your family is your loyalty, the children will cry uncontrollably and everyone else will look long-faced.
If you are also one of the few at the beginning and all you see on Twitter is how the elected officials and their children slip out of the net, maybe you feel that it is also unfair – it does not apply to everyone, so why should you take a bullet for the team?
If I give up a job, I have ongoing costs and a family that needs to eat. There is no farm that children and wife can continue to work on, and when the war comes, unemployment will skyrocket.
Then interest rates will probably rise sharply and there will be price inflation.
The elected officials need already today to think through a salary that is higher for combat units, veteran pensions, disability pensions and death benefits if you go and die – all such things must be clear and explicit in binding contracts and the money must come every month, otherwise your family won’t eat and the bank will take the house.
Our elected officials should lead by example – called leadership. If they start sending their family members of mobilizable age abroad or invent some kind of immune services that everyone is employed in, it will be noticed immediately.
If mobilization begins on a broad scale, they must be forerunners, men, women and other gender identities. If mobilized people see a pattern that they either have reasons not to go or are placed out of drone range, they will immediately ask themselves why they should crouch in a pit with a swarm of wasps above their heads.
That has been a very big issue in Ukraine where those higher up in the tree have sent their children to Europe and in waves they have had big problems getting people at the front to risk their lives. They have still had an existential crisis that made it easier – everyone has had something clear to fight for.
Which age groups do you mobilize?
Are you going to do like Ukraine and let those who already have families take the hit or the younger ones who have life ahead of them?
Personally, I think you should go for 40-60 year olds but make sure they get the financial and other support required so that they dare to let go of their breadwinning responsibility.
Younger people are the ones who should start families and build the country post-war – future generations.
If you fail to mobilize enough people who you then do not equip, you have no one to go to war with no matter how much you want to.
If you are employed by the Armed Forces, the choice is probably easier. The Armed Forces employees can be counted on one hand’s fingers.
Europe will not unanimously go to war; there will be countries that have to decide – some like Finland and the Baltics have a country to defend and simply have no alternatives.
The Swede needs to find a good reason to go to war even if Sweden is not threatened, which it is not before Finland and the Baltics have fallen, if there is a war and if they fall.
It is probably appropriate if this whole process gets started so that we are not left trying to do everything at once on short notice.
If you want peace, you must prepare for war – everything has a long lead time.
One day, if the threshold is not high enough, Putin will press the offensive button, lean back and quietly say “it goes as it goes” before he puts the caviar spoon in his mouth.
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Thank you for the morning reading, Johan no 1. Good as usual👍👍👍
Everything indicates that NATO plans to attack Kaliningrad if the Russians cause trouble in the Baltics. The transponders were on – maybe to scare the Russians into keeping in check. The Black Sea Fleet is more or less destroyed. If a large part of the Baltic Fleet goes as well, it looks bad for Russia.
Kaliningrad is not a bad countermeasure if RU tries something in the Baltics or Poland. Every evening we hear how Solovyov and his friends think Russia should strike against the collective West. Like hitting the Polish equivalent of Wildberries. Respond in kind. It is not Ukraine that RU is fighting against but the Western world. How else can one explain to the Russian people that the country is stuck in Ukraine and that the Ukrainian hohols bomb Russian strategic targets every night.
Then I also think one can say that Europe and the EU have been weakened by feminism and green politics. Add to that an excessive immigration from the third world. The result is a polarization between left and right that does not favor cohesion in the face of an external enemy like Russia.
Agree with MXT that today’s text is good as usual. It’s just unfortunate that the bottom line is that the situation is bleak because everything that should have been done earlier still hasn’t been done. Personal preparation is what one can start with after all, knowing that the bank is not your friend even in a significantly worse external situation, i.e. war. What still makes me wonder when reading all the wise words on this blog, and to be fair also the other blog, is why EU politicians do not dare to do what is necessary and firmly put their foot down in Putin’s face above all. After all, we have Ukraine to learn from and historical lessons from previous world wars and other events. I suppose part of the answer is that we live in a stranger time than ever before when the great dominant “good” superpower USA is ruled by unpredictable lunatics whom we cannot trust as before. Maybe that is the result the world’s politicians are waiting for in the midterm elections. If there is any result at all, Trump has many times shown that he does not accept either the result or the country’s electoral system.
Excellent that they are taking action!
One can always hope when it comes to Swedish politicians.
Fedorov ran out of protests for him 🤣🤣
But NABU is up and running again, also a bit dangerous anti-corruption.
Hard to be Zelensky.
USA is definitely behind Fedorov and RU has infiltrated NABU.
Completely crazy good that the citizens are resisting.
The paradox is that the better it goes for Ukraine, the more dangerous Russia becomes.
Until they collapse.
It’s tough that our strategy over 4.5 years has been that it must not go too badly for Russia.
We have options until we no longer have them.
Now, the only option is not a first strike, we have a whole list we usually go through with things that are already diplomatically and politically permissible.