The war in Ukraine 2025-08-21

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Russian losses in Ukraine:

  • 830 KIA
  • 1 Tank
  • 5 AFVs
  • 41 Artillery systems
  • 1 MLRS
  • 1 Anti-Aircraft system
  • 315 UAVs
  • 114 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
  • 1 Special equipment
Russian losses in Ukraine

SLAVA UKRAINI

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62 thoughts on “The war in Ukraine 2025-08-21”

  2. 205

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 4
    S Slobozhansky 9💥↗️
    Kupyansk 2
    Lyman 33💥💥
    Siverskyi 5
    Kramatorsk 1
    Toretsk 11💥
    Pokrovsk 53💥💥💥
    Novopavlivka 28💥💥
    Huliaypillia 0
    Orikhivsk 1
    Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 3

    Over the past day, the Air Force, missile forces, and artillery of the Defense Forces struck seven areas where personnel, weapons, and military equipment were concentrated, four artillery systems, one air defense system, and a command post of the Russian invaders.

    Four combat clashes took place in the North Slobozhansky and Kursk directions over the past day. In addition, the enemy carried out 16 air strikes, dropping 40 guided bombs, and carried out 207 shelling attacks on the positions of our troops and populated areas, including 16 with multiple launch rocket systems.

    In the South Slobozhanskyi direction, the Defense Forces repelled nine enemy attacks in the areas of the settlements of Vovchansk, Ambarne, Fyholivka, and in the directions of Khatne and Katerynivka.

    In the Kupiansk direction, there were two attacks by the occupiers. The Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults in the areas of Golubivka and in the direction of Kupiansk.

    In the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 33 times, trying to advance in the areas of the settlements of Karpivka, Ridkodub, Kolodyazi, Myrne, Torske, and towards the settlements of Olgivka, Shandryholove, Yampil, Dronivka, and Hryhorivka.

    In the Siverskyi direction, our defenders repelled five assaults by the occupying forces near Hryhorivka, Pereizne, and towards Vyimka and Fedorivka.

    In the Kramatorsk direction, one combat engagement was recorded in the area of the settlement of Stupochky.

    In the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out 11 attacks in the areas of Toretsk, Yablunivka, Shcherbinivka, and in the direction of Stepanivka, Poltavka, and Popove Yar.

    In the Pokrovsk direction, there were 53 clashes in the areas of the settlements of Volodymyrivka, Nikanorivka, Fedorivka, Kucheri Yar, Novoekonomichne, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Horikove, Novoukrainka, Dachne, and in the direction of Pokrovsk, Bilytske, Rodynske, Myrnohrad, and Novopavlivka.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gy2jDM5WgAA45hp.jpg

    In the Novopavlivka direction, the Defense Forces stopped 28 enemy attempts to break through the defensive lines in the areas of the settlements of Tolstoy, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole, Voskresenka, Zelenoye Pole, and in the direction of Filiya, Iskra, Komyshuvakha, Sichnevoe, and Novogrigorovka.

    The enemy did not conduct any assault operations in the Huliaipole direction.

    In the Orikhiv direction, our defenders repelled one enemy attack in the direction of Primorsky.

    In the Prydniprovsk direction, enemy units attempted to advance three times but were repelled.

    In the Volyn and Polissya directions, no signs of the formation of enemy offensive groups were detected.

    1. Peter Den Större

      We have always been told how important the railway is for Russian war logistics, and sometimes one has wondered why we hear so little about its strains and breakdowns. Feels like SJ is doing it faster. In short: good news.

  6. Lasse W

    Good analysis by Anne Applebaum about Putin’s ambitions. It’s not about Donetsk or not Donetsk. For Putin, it’s about the final battle against the West that must end with a total victory. We’ve heard it before, “Wir wollen den totalen Sieg.” It’s spiritual/existential for Putin. He constantly sees victory just around the corner. No compromises with the West are possible. Until it’s over, and then he himself is gone. It’s all or nothing.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUuB8y5DEdU

    1. MXT

      👍 Much indicates that this is the case and if so, it will also not be possible to negotiate any peace with him, other than temporarily until next time.

      Europe and the USA need to understand this.

  7. Peter Den Större

    There is no doubt that Europe is hopelessly slow in arming itself. Perhaps partly to see what the USA decides (and apparently without understanding that the more we do, the more support we give Trump, he doesn’t deal with losers.) The question is – exactly what have Europe’s leaders accomplished so far? Are there concrete plans on how Ukraine’s and the Baltic states’ borders with Russia will be fortified? If Trump leaves the stage, can we then ignore the ban on sending JAS? How much has Sweden’s war industry increased by? Is there any clear leader for Europe’s war efforts or is it Huey, Dewey, and Louie who should “talk it over”?

    1. MXT

      Yes, that was interesting reading, thank you!

      A bit surprised about:

      “Others say Trump was “very impressed” by Putin’s nuclear weapon threats and “frightened” by his cunning.

      “It gave Trump a clear sense that if you push me too hard, I will use nuclear weapons and Trump has never been ever to get over that,” says Clarke.”

      “Trump is frightened of him, he’s frightened of him intellectually and he’s frightened of him because he thinks he might use nuclear weapons.”

      Would explain a lot if it’s true.
      In that case, no compromising material is needed, or any old debt for Russia to have helped Trump before or to try to get Russia on board against China. Fear goes a long way.

      That was the feeling one got with Biden. That he (and his administration) didn’t dare to push harder because they didn’t know if Putin would actually follow through on the threats.

      If Trump is even more scared, it’s of course not strange that he tries to do everything he can to keep Putin satisfied.

      When he talked about the risk of a third world war, maybe he was actually seriously worried and not just using it as an argument for the need for peace and for Zelenskyy to be ready to make concessions.

      It’s easy for us to dismiss the threats of nuclear weapons, but it might be a whole different story to talk to Putin directly and he coldly explains that he wouldn’t hesitate for a second if he deems it necessary.

  9. CB500four

    Lavrov is speaking the opposite language again. I read in the Finnish Kauppalehti that Lavrov is demanding veto power for Russia and China regarding security guarantees for Ukraine.

      1. Lasse W

        That’s how it will sound from Putin and Lavrov until the bitter end. We are in the driver’s seat and take no dictation from anyone. They play high and keep their face until they no longer do. A peace agreement based on the current front lines will never be accepted by Russia. The war must continue.

  22. MXT

    Italian police have arrested a Ukrainian man suspected of the explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, reports Der Spiegel. He is suspected of coordinating the explosion and also being on the boat when the sabotage was carried out off the coast of Bornholm.

  23. MXT

    Enköping will become a logistics base for NATO’s troop movements in the Nordic region and from North America. The government decided this on Thursday, reports SVT News.

    Around 70 people will be employed.

    – Sweden has an important position within NATO geographically, and our ability to transport resources and personnel will be very important, says Minister of Defense Pål Jonson (M).

  24. MXT

    Many observers agree: Ukraine is back to square one

    Russia is making more and more statements indicating that peace in Ukraine is far away. Many observers agree that not much has happened despite the summits in Alaska and the White House.

    On Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia demands a veto right in a future arrangement where Europe guarantees Ukraine’s security.

    “This indicates that Russia has not changed its attitude at all,” writes Financial Times Moscow correspondent Max Seddon on X.

    Hope for a soon meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky has also faded after Russian statements. Sources close to the Kremlin tell The Guardian that Putin is not in a hurry to meet Ukraine’s president.

    The regime loyal Russian commentator Aleksey Muchin writes that Putin only wants to meet Zelensky if it leads to Ukrainian surrender.

    3. CB500four

      Yes, it’s straight into the tile that applies.

      Also saw a note on the Finnish Iltalehti that Lavrov had said that the legitimacy of Ukraine’s leaders must be in order before Russia signs any agreement with Ukraine.

      So, nothing has changed, Putin just got a moment in the spotlight at the meeting with Trump.

      So it’s still unconditional surrender or disintegration of Russia that is the goal.

  26. MXT

    Nuclear power

    No one had any guesses yesterday when I asked, but they apparently read the blog and it seems like I’m getting what I asked for.

    Press conference here: https://www.regeringen.se/pressmeddelanden/2025/08/presstraff/

    “Vattenfall is investing in building small nuclear reactors. Vattenfall is planning to invest in small-scale reactors in its future nuclear power expansion,” the company states.

    “This is another step towards Sweden’s first nuclear power plant in over 40 years,” says the company’s CEO Anna Borg in a press release.

    The location for the project is Värö Peninsula, where the Ringhals nuclear power plant is located.

    The next step in the process is to choose a final supplier of new nuclear reactors. Vattenfall is now proceeding with the American GE Vernova and the British Rolls-Royce SMR in the process.

    <p"The goal is to have new nuclear power in place by the mid-2030s." https://omni.se/vattenfall-ska-bygga-sma-reaktorer/a/bmAM1k

    Kristersson on the announcement: “Now it’s happening” The government and the Sweden Democrats welcome Vattenfall’s announcement that they are investing in small-scale reactors in their future nuclear power expansion. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (M) describes it as a major step.

    <p"Now it's happening – with new nuclear power, Sweden will have a more stable, competitive, and climate-friendly electricity supply," he writes on X.

    SD leader Jimmie Åkesson also describes the announcement as pleasing:

    <p"After neglect, dismantling, and political negligence, important steps are now being taken towards new nuclear power in Sweden."

    The leaders of the Alliance parties and Vattenfall’s CEO Anna Borg will hold a press conference about the news at 2:00 p.m.” https://omni.se/kristersson-om-beskedet-nu-hander-det/a/OovbMk

    1. MXT

      Of course, I had hoped that we had made more progress, it’s not exactly news that a decision has been made to go with one of two suppliers.. But the fact that it will be SMR is still interesting.

      In 2035, it is planned to be put into operation for the first time. It will be interesting to see if that schedule will be met.

    2. Westley Richard

      Very unfortunate that they are already choosing to exclude the Canadian OPG at this stage.

      https://www.opg.com/about-us/

      A trade exchange with Canada where they buy Gripen if we buy SMR from them could probably have been a good deal for both parties.

      Possibly Vattenfall does not agree with me, but then it is up to the politicians to refer to national interests.

    3. johan No.1

      Now DAMN IT MXT ✊✊

      The thread seems to be quite unanimous about SMR and then that the government’s major investment in new normal reactors is just a scam that has not been topped before except by the Green Party’s environmental scams.

      The mid-30s is a bit too long but I guess they now have to fight their way through a forest of permits and appeals?

      I thought Mitsubishi was far ahead?

      This is –

      – responsible.

      – reasonable cost structure.

      – very smart.

      Then we’ll see if Vattenfall is cunning and keeps high prices anyway, had hoped that municipalities would start with SMR in their power companies themselves.

      It’s not very often that Johan No.1 is positive about electricity production issues but this WAS VERY GOOD.

      1. CB500four

        Well, SMRs are probably the way to go right now, they can be placed closer to the consumer, and distributed electricity production won’t be as sensitive. However, the regulations need to be simplified, as modular reactors that don’t require on-site fuel changes don’t need as strict requirements. I believe thorium reactors will then become the new people’s reactor, the Chinese (of course) are leading the way there, from what I understand.

  27. johan No.1

    Trying to survive at work since we are now going to choose a contractor and there are two factions that have each made a deal with a contractor, and the enhancement of these gentlemen’s pensions is now at stake. They are absolutely hysterically nervous.

    Since there are three parties bidding, I manage so far by rejecting the third one and praising the other two.

    Therefore, I am sitting here weighing every word on a scale of gold in my analysis of the bids and trying to figure out what other consultants will say.

    One faction has been a bit more energetic and has managed to bring on board a large international consultant who is clearly corrupt, so I have made it a bit of my mission to torpedo them when the opportunity arises.

    It’s easier than you think because everyone bidding has torn apart their technical investigations.

    Then there was another consultant who is British but works and lives in the USA who was supposed to come in a big way, but he didn’t understand that the job he claimed he could/want to do and was best at was the same position one of the gentlemen here had in mind, so he was quickly out of the picture.

    What I intend to finish is Operation B, which is the invasion of Russia from Europe – how much we need to conquer and so on.

    I call it active defense so it will be easier to sell.

    The bonus is that the Finns and the Poles will get back at them for old cheese.

    3. DJ

      Looking forward to it. The only functioning security guarantees I can think of are to first zero out Russian military capability and then follow up with regular flyovers of Russia where all military equipment and industry they have built up since the last flyover is bombed out. A small price for eternal peace in Europe. But it probably requires an invasion first, so good that you are planning it.

      1. CB500four

        Typically American to go after the little guys, especially if they are interested in something.

        Venezuela is one of several “Failed states” that have natural resources so they could have been as rich as Norway or Dubai, but poor leadership, corruption, internal power struggles, and failed policies.

        Venezuela has the world’s largest known oil reserves.

        A little anecdote about Venezuela’s relationship with the USA

        Once involved in a project, a diesel power plant in Honduras, which was supposed to run on so-called orimulsion, i.e. water and sand mixed oil from Venezuela. The fuel they could pump up from the lakes was almost free, but required a lot of ancillary equipment, filters, separators, and heaters to be usable. Then they got a new president in Venezuela, I think it was Chavez, whom the USA didn’t like, and so Venezuela ended up in a blockade, and that was the end of using cheap orimulsion in the power plant.

    1. CB500four

      Almost ashamed to admit it, but for once Trump is right, until he writes that he would have prevented the war.

      Well done, Mangomussolini

    2. MXT

      Not often I agree with Trump. Then I hope he will eventually realize that he should do the exact opposite of what Biden did.

      Or, he has already done that in a way, but I mean in the other direction! 😂

  31. 205

    More on meeting Zelensky and Putin, thread 🧵.

     

    1/
    Thread✍️

    The whole story about Budapest is fiction and fantasy.

    Putin will not dare to meet with @ZelenskyyUa for several reasons. Interview with @r_bezsmertnyi

    We are dealing with a theater of the absurd. When I read about the-

    “warmth”

    – that Trump felt from Putin after getting off the plane, I realized:
    – we are facing an openly inadequate person. It feels like reading a psychopathic novel.

    Because how can you meet a killer and feel “warmth”? This is rock bottom, a complete fall.

    Why will Putin never sit at the same table with Zelensky?

    The “Budapest negotiations” are just a cover for other Moscow games. Details in an exclusive interview with Ukrainian diplomat and politician Roman Bezsmertnyi.

    https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/politics-news/vsya-istoriya-zustrichchyu-u-budapeshti-vigadka-fantaziya-prikrittya-chogos-inshogo-putin-ne-navazhitsya-zustritisya-z-zelenskim-z-kilkoh-prichin-intervyu-z-bezsmertnim.htm

     

    2/
    After the meeting in Washington,
    obozrevatel.com/ukr/politics-n…
    US President Donald Trump took up the idea of ​​a summit with the participation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and russian dictator Vladimir Putin with increased enthusiasm, considering it “the best way to end the war.”

    “As noted, Trump even refused to take a vacation.”

    This is explained by the fact that he seeks to organize a meeting between russian dictator Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky.

    He said that this is the main reason why he will not rest.

    https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/politics-news/peregovori-zelenskogo-z-trampom-podrobitsi-zustrichi-v-bilomu-domi-onlajn.htm

    3/
    The Ukrainian leader has repeatedly stated that he is ready for such a meeting and is ready to discuss the main issues.

    – What can you not say about the russian dictator, who avoids it in every possible way.

    However, Trump thinks otherwise.
    The day before, the White House stated that “Putin promised to meet with Zelensky.

    Trump does not want to wait a month for the next contacts, preparations for the meeting have already begun.”

    The US assumes that Putin’s meeting with Zelensky could take place in the next two weeks, as US Chief of Protocol Ambassador Monica @MonicaCrowley has already stated.

    As @politico reports, Donald Trump’s administration is considering the Hungarian capital as “a summit venue first and foremost,” and the US Secret Service has allegedly already begun preparations for the meeting.

     

    4/
    But russia has made it clear that it is in no hurry with this.
    – Yes, statements about the need for negotiations are constantly heard from the Kremlin,
    “but the seriousness of these intentions is small.”

    So after Trump’s call to Putin, after which the US president declared that he was ready for a meeting, the dictator’s assistant Yuri Ushakov stated something different:

    “Putin and Trump discussed the idea of ​​raising the level of direct russian-Ukrainian negotiations.”

    It is not very likely that the “raising the level” refers to the personal presence of the russian dictator.

    russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also clearly indicated that “a big meeting is not the time.” He said that Moscow is not refusing negotiations with Ukraine, but any summit should be prepared

    “step by step, gradually, starting from the expert level, and then going through all the necessary stages.”

    For his part, Vladimir Putin also continues to mock the topic of negotiations with the President of Ukraine, offering to meet with Volodymyr Zelensky in Moscow.

    In fact, russia follows a familiar pattern:
    – agree in principle, delay in practice, buy time without consequences.

    Ukrainian diplomat and politician Roman Bezsmertny shared his thoughts on these and other issues in an exclusive interview

    https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/person/288.htm

    5/
    – Trump is actively promoting a meeting between Zelensky and Putin.

    Although there is a separate question here – how realistic it is. The plan in the form in which it exists now – to put Zelensky in the same room with Putin, and they will agree on everything, makes no sense.

    To achieve the results of the meeting, a certain level of basic agreement between the main participants is required. Both sides must have at least some common goals, otherwise such meetings will not be negotiations, but only a reading of their demands.

    – Let’s start with the justification: russia, Ukraine and Budapest – how realistic is this option and how will the parties react?

    6/
    – At the beginning, the key question is:
    – what does it mean to raise or lower the level of diplomatic representation?

    If the advisers conducted the negotiations, then the ministers can continue.
    If the ministers, then the next level is the prime ministers.

    Now, on the Ukrainian side, the political level is conducting the negotiations, because three ministers are politicians. But on the russian side, there are people with “undetermined status.”

    It is difficult to even call them technical level. And here is an interesting detail.

    – After Putin’s conversation with Trump, Ushakov stated that it was Trump who informed the Europeans about the agreement on the meeting between Zelensky and Putin.
    And now a simple question arises: who lied?

    – Because this is exactly the situation where there are only two versions. I do not exclude that in the style of russian diplomacy, they talked about one thing, and Ushakov “explained” something completely different.

    Or, between Putin’s conversation with Trump and Ushakov’s statement, something happened, and the Moscow dictator changed his mind. This is also possible.

    But, from my point of view, this time it was Donald @realDonaldTrump who lied.

    And all these calls to Orban, stories about the secret service in Budapest, statements from the White House are just a screen.

    A cover-up of the processes that are currently taking place outside the public space.

    – I can say in advance: this whole story with Budapest is a fiction, a fantasy.

    Either a cover-up for something else, or just an informational throw-in to relieve tension.

    7/
    The real question is different:
    – what did the Washington meeting actually achieve?

    In fact, there were two points: security and the topic of the meeting. Everything is clear with security. But as for the meeting, it is clear that it is not two weeks, as some are trying to present.

    This is a long process. Because there is not even a subject for conversation. Putin understands perfectly well:
    – hanging noodles on Zelenskyy the way he did to Trump will no longer work.

    – So the key question is: can Putin, in the current circumstances, dare to have such a meeting – an obvious one?

    – That’s right. The answer is no. There are many reasons. And that’s why we need to look for another explanation, not the naive version of “they’ll meet and talk.” The President of Ukraine is currently silent, and he’s doing the right thing. He’s pausing and tactfully insisting on a meeting, leaving Putin searching for an answer.

    – Putin allegedly even suggested Moscow during a conversation with Trump. Is this trolling? Why does he need such a game?

    – This is from the same series. Until we hear directly what Trump or Putin are talking about, we cannot trust the reports from the “drainages”.

    “We are dealing with the theater of the absurd.”

    When I read about the “warmth” that Trump felt from Putin after getting off the plane, I realized:
    – we are dealing with a frankly inadequate person.

    It feels like you are reading a psychopathic novel. Because how can you meet a murderer and feel the “warmth”?

    This is the bottom, this is a complete fall.

    8/
    – Why, in your opinion, is Trump so obsessively torpedoing this topic? Doesn’t he understand that it’s unrealistic?

    Or is he simply pursuing his dream of a Nobel Prize – to show that he stopped the war, signed his “seventh or eighth peace agreement”?

    – There are several motives.

    First, it’s his idea of ​​a fix – the Nobel Peace Prize. Second, he really wants to understand where America’s interests are here.
    And third, it’s a tool for blackmailing Europe.

    Some believe that the rapid arrival of the Europeans is a reaction to Trump’s pressure.

    No, on the contrary. The Europeans came to save him from himself. Because he had already “floated” so much that he became a threat even to his own line…….

    And thanks to their arrival, it was possible to pull him out of the shit and at the same time keep him in the frame.
    He tried to cross out the same five principles that were adopted in Berlin after the online meeting with Trump.

    The Europeans came, publicly thanked him, and behind closed doors intelligently “cleaned their noses”.
    Because they agreed on something completely different:
    – that the topic of territories would not be discussed, that negotiations would start from the contact line.

    9/
    – And this was confirmed by the Americans, the same Secretary of State @SecRubio, even before the meeting.

    – Absolutely correct. That is, this has all been discussed more than once. In this sense, the arrival of the Europeans really “reanimated” Donald Trump himself a little.

    But at the same time, it sharply strengthened the role of the Europeans in this whole story. And it was clear:
    – both Maloney and Merz were actually laughing at Trump.

    Yes, they thanked him, nodded their heads, but non-verbally showed: “Grandpa, I’ll get over it.”

    Short phrases, dry remarks are always a sign: we have formally paid our respects, and then it’s not interesting.

    10/
    – Regarding Putin’s position: can he still agree to a meeting with Zelensky?
    At least in the coming weeks or months?

    Considering that for him the president of Ukraine is “illegitimate ” and so on. He even avoids mentioning Zelensky’s last name.

    – Putin went to Alaska with only one thought:

    ” to use Trump.”

    What the Kremlin could not do by force, to try to twist Donald’s hands. It didn’t work. And it won’t work. We need to understand once and for all:
    – no one in Washington is in charge of either Ukraine or Europe.

    This is a myth.

    And now Moscow will simply imitate this diplomatic direction. Because they understood: there are no real results here.

    A telling moment: Trump kept repeating “we discussed territories.”

    He was even brought to the map: look, they have been storming the same area for 11 years. Have they made progress?

    No. It stands like concrete. And all military specialists – Ukrainian and European – are unanimous: this area cannot be touched, because it has both strategic and tactical importance.

    Europe has clearly stated: there will be no trade in territories. Period.

    This is not a subject of discussion. Moreover, we are only talking about the contact line. In many places there is not even a continuous “trench line”.

    Therefore, the most that can be discussed is the technical aspects on this border. And “bash on bash” or changing the status of the occupied territories?
    No. This is not discussed at all, because their legal status is clearly defined: these are occupied territories. Period.

    – That is why Putin is silent.

    He will play the role of a clown together with Ushakov, throwing games at Donald Trump. But he will not go to a real meeting with @ZelenskyyUa.

    11/
    And this whole story with false statements? In fact, it was beneficial to both. Both Putin and Trump.

    One is stalling, the other is heating up the topic for the sake of the Nobel Prize.

    And until Trump is given a clear answer about this prize, he will continue to spread the topic of the “peacemaker”.

    And then we will see what he will come up with next.

    12/
    – In this situation, the Europeans pretend to believe that Trump can organize some peace talks, but they believe that either there will be no talks or they will fail.

    And this is good, because it will be possible to raise the topic of pressure on russia in the form of new sanctions again. During the meeting at the White House, French President @EmmanuelMacron tried to find out whether the US would impose additional sanctions against russia.

    Macron was told that the White House prefers to see what a possible further meeting with Putin would lead to. At the same time, the Senate majority leader, Republican John @LeaderJohnThune, emphasized that the Senate is ready to impose sanctions against russia in order to actually bring it to the negotiating table, even despite the fact that Trump has made it clear that he is no longer considering the possibility of sanctions.

    In your opinion, how likely is the United States’ reaction if the idea of ​​a Zelensky-Putin meeting does not work?
    The Europeans have already said: there will be no meeting – new sanctions.

    But Washington… is it worth waiting for real pressure on russia during Trump’s presidency?

    13/
    – A complex question that does not have a clear answer. Why?

    Yes, on the one hand, we have Donald Trump, and everything seems to be clear with him. But I advise those who follow to look not only at Trump, but also at what the US Minister of Energy says.

    – Inside the ministry, a decision has already been substantiated and made to destroy the russian hydrocarbon industry.

    “Definitely.”

    Therefore, how active Trump will be on this topic will depend on how much the Minister of Energy will be able to find pressure mechanisms and promote them.

    In parallel, regardless of Trump, more and more Asian oil will enter the market.

    This in itself will put downward pressure on prices. And this is a very serious factor that is hitting russia.
    The Europeans are looking for ways to block the “gray” tanker fleet of the russian Federation.

    This will further reduce their budget revenues. Already this year, profits have fallen by 10.8 billion – a minus of 28% compared to last year.

    So even if Trump continues to sign off on the courtesies of his Moscow friend, the system will work by itself.

    14/
    But the question is different: what does Europe need from the US now?

    Weapons worth 100 billion.

    This is necessary to bridge the time gap while Europe itself ramps up production. As I said, by the end of the year Europe will reach full production volumes of Patriot missiles and other modernized systems that operate in the same range.

    And this is not only missile defense or air defense – we are also talking about communication systems to get rid of dependence on Starlink and other external players.

    That is, the topic of “the US as the main player” is now at a turning point….

    “Europe is gradually becoming a leader, and this will change relations with Washington.”

    But here is an important point:
    – Europe will not demonstrate superiority over Trump. It will act quietly but confidently.

    Look at the economy: the US has 13 million jobs in the military-industrial complex, Europe has 38 million.

    The European economy is more flexible and faster. While the US is turning around, Europe will overtake it several times.
    – Therefore, Europe is really progressing. Although, let me repeat once again: this year it and Ukraine still need at least 100 billion dollars, 90 of which are American weapons

    15/
    – Concluding the topic of negotiations – Budapest. This is not a coincidence, is this some kind of trolling of Ukraine? Like, so that President Zelenskyy would refuse? Because there is a memorandum of the same name, which no one has implemented, the official authorities of Hungary today, to put it mildly, are only slightly better than the Kremlin in their attitude towards Ukraine. How realistic is this platform?

    – As for Budapest itself, most likely, it was an attempt to push Zelensky to refuse. At the same time, Budapest came up in the conversation by chance.

    This happened in American discussions, when the issue of Ukraine’s accession to the EU was being discussed. And accession to the EU is considered one of the components of security guarantees.

    And then, in particular, Merz directly told Trump: “Your friend is against it.” He said it correctly, but the meaning was clear – he was talking about Orban. How did Trump react? As always: he grabbed the phone and started calling.

    For people of this type, it is normal to act impulsively. And so it went into overdrive, even reaching the idea of ​​a possible meeting.

    But you and I understood perfectly well then and now: this meeting will not happen in the near future. This was clear even during our live broadcast: an unrealistic story. But you can always talk.

    16/
    – We have new statements from Trump. Buffer zone. It seems to be from that phone conversation with Orban again. He said that Ukraine used to be a buffer zone between russia and Europe – and everything was great. And regarding russia – these sentimental “tears”, which, they say, I understand the situation with #NATO near their borders – is bad.

    – This is a signal for the Kremlin.

    Because at that time, the process of returning 30% of the shares of the Sakhalin-1 project to @exxonmobil-Mobil was underway.

    Putin’s decree was formally issued, but it has not yet been implemented.

    And, as far as I understand, there is a certain share of Trump’s interests there. So he is forced to confirm that he remains on the same positions, repeating all this on the air.

    As for the statements about “neutral status”, “buffer zone” or “status between” – they are unsuitable for this region.

    Neither #Finland, nor #Belarus, nor #Ukraine can be “between”. To be a real buffer state, one must have an appropriate geopolitical role. russia is a black hole.
    – It must be approached with caution and kept at a distance. Imagine a Europe where Ukraine is a “passage yard”.

    It would simply shake all the time. Therefore, all these fantasies about “bufferness” are the inventions of the black hole, that is, Moscow.

    And from the point of view of real geopolitics, no matter how you say it, Ukraine cannot be “between”.

    17/
    – Putin and the russians have been pushing this idea for years and through people like @PM_ViktorOrban, are trying to impose it on Europe.
    Now they want to force it on the United States.

    – Exactly. And here it is worth making a historical excursion.

    The Declaration on the State Sovereignty of Ukraine really had this “spirit of neutrality”. Therefore, when Lavrov speaks about the neutrality and non-nuclear state of Ukraine, he appeals to that very point. There were really two positions there:
    – neutrality and the rejection of nuclear weapons.

    But when it was written, Europe was completely different. The geopolitical situation has changed radically. Therefore, the Constitution has changed – it could not be otherwise.

    Because the role of states has changed, continental circumstances have changed. But the attempts of the russian system to “turn history back” are a desire to put up the Berlin Wall again.

    A rollback into the past, which is unacceptable for Europe.

     

    18/
    – By the way, Austria also started talking about joining NATO a few months ago. This is a serious signal: the situation in Europe has clearly changed

    – HOW did #Finland and #Sweden join #NATO? There is a simple principle: the movement of people goes from east to west, and the civilizational wave always moves from west to east.

    The Curzon Line, which is so often mentioned, shifts once in a certain period – by 300, 400 or even 1000 kilometers.

    Now it runs along the eastern border of Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltics and Scandinavia.
    It is this line that has now become the subject of conflict. Geopoliticians have been drawing this for a long time.

    19/
    – Regarding security guarantees. As noted, the US and Europe will immediately begin work on this issue. But it is already clear that, despite the statements of the Europeans and Americans, it will not be easy.

    – I will say it briefly: let them look for a fool who will believe in the Budapest Memorandum for the second time.

    There will be no more of that. Until it is clearly defined – which units, where their deployment, what support, and all this is not enshrined in law, all this talk is worthless. These conversations can be held, but they will become real only when the plans that are already ready in the headquarters, for example in the British General Staff, are implemented.

    Everything is written there – deployments, components, financing. If this is not done and paid for, then who in Ukraine will dare to sign empty words?

    “This is unacceptable. There will be no second Budapest.”

    Or let them implement the first one – and then there will be trust.

     

    20/
    – And what is Europe up to now? Because Starmer and Macron have repeatedly said: “We are ready to send troops, but we need American cover.” Supposedly, Trump has now promised to give something – air cover and so on. But there are still no real solutions to this issue?

    – There is a German plan called “Sparta”.

    This is a plan to provide a hundred Ukrainian brigades with everything necessary for the defense of Ukraine and the security of the European continent.

    We are not talking only about Ukrainian units – these are a hundred conditional combat units. This is the only document that I trust from the point of view of security guarantees.

    It is detailed, with estimates, actions outlined. Until this plan is implemented, everything else is empty talk. And none of the participants in the negotiations in Washington believe Donald Trump’s words.

    No one. Because he came to power under the slogan “America is moving away from everyone.” …..

    He even wanted to leave Europe. And what now – will he introduce troops for the sake of the Nobel Prize?

    – It’s ridiculous. Therefore, we must rely exclusively on the EU as a single defense force together with Ukraine.
    And here the situation is interesting:
    – today Europe needs Ukraine even more than Ukraine needs Europe.
    The question is: how to integrate Ukraine into this European space, into a common system of armies. And let anyone listen to Trump’s stories, but not us

     

    21/21
    – russia is also reacting in parallel, threatening “terrible consequences.” Can Europeans ignore such statements or will they still be afraid?

    – The answer is simple: Moscow understands only force. And the stronger Europe and Ukraine are, the sooner Moscow will start to count.

    The main thing is that the EU does not stop developing its own defense-industrial complex and autonomous security system. NATO will have its importance, but Europe must finally create its own defense circuit.

    And Ukraine must be integrated into it. No “Führer” in the Kremlin will ever sign anything.

    Ukraine will not give up territory either. Only force and time will give the answer.

    And another nuance:

    – on the eve of Washington, China declared that a “tipping point” was approaching. And what happened?

    They rarely say, but if they do, it means something serious. So, there are factors that have not yet manifested themselves publicly, but will appear later.
    And more will become clear. But it is already obvious:
    – all of Trump’s “plans”, if you can call them that at all, are chaos.

    And they are doomed for now. I agree with my European colleagues:
    – an agreement with russia on Ukraine is unrealistic for Donald Trump
    —-
    End:

    – Hope you all understand the fake of putin and Trump now…/Lewi @Anno1540

    Europe stands strong along with Ukraine against the terrormachine ryzniak/putin

    Fck them

    https://x.com/anno1540/status/1958416717467558231?s=46

  32. MXT

    “❗️The 🇷🇺Unecha oil pumping station (Bryansk region) was attacked again, reports the commander of the 🇺🇦Unmanned Systems Forces Magyar”

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