The war in Ukraine 2025-08-22

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Russian losses in Ukraine:

  • 790 KIA
  • 4 Tanks
  • 3 AFVs
  • 46 Artillery systems
  • 1 MLRS
  • 1 Anti-Aircraft system
  • 318 UAVs
  • 33 Cruise missiles
  • 110 Vehicles and Fuel tanks

SLAVA UKRAINI

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73 thoughts on “The war in Ukraine 2025-08-22”

  1. MXT
    AFU reports:
    • 157 combat clashes
    • 75 aviation strikes
    • 125 KAB
    • 5,709 artillery shelling (98 from MLRS)
    • 5,875 kamikaze drones

    Not long ago, they passed 4,000 drones per day and now they are soon reaching 6,000.

  2. MXT

    Machine translated:
    “Since January 2025, the Russians have advanced faster and suffered fewer casualties. We have been following the dynamics of the enemy’s advance and losses for two and a half years, and now the situation is at its worst. Also read in the article about the situation in specific sections of the front.

    The graph shows two curves. The upper one shows the rate of the Russian advance, the lower one shows their losses. The ideal graph under conditions of enemy numerical superiority would look like this: the upper line goes straight ahead and the lower one goes steeply upwards. The situation could be considered “difficult but controlled” if faster advancement led to greater enemy losses, that is, if the two lines moved synchronously. This was the case in 2024.But since January 2025, the situation began to deteriorate, the Russians are advancing faster and fewer are dying.”

     

     

    The decreasing Russian casualty figures can be interpreted in different ways. They attack without the support of armor and in much smaller groups, therefore suffering fewer losses. But how come they have also increased the pace of their advance at the same time?

    Personally, I believe that this is largely due to the massive increase in drones. They do not need as much armor or as many soldiers. Drones provide an accurate picture of the situation and can guide small groups to move exactly where they can cause the most damage without being detected, and of course, drones can also attack themselves. The Russians probably still have artillery superiority, even if they are not firing as much as during the first half of the war.

    The article from which the excerpt comes also lists what is believed to be the cause.
    There, the blame is primarily placed on poor leadership.

    There may be some truth to that, but it should also be taken with a grain of salt.
    It is almost more of a rule than an exception that when things go wrong, it is the leader’s, or leaders’, fault.
    Compare it to team sports, and when a team performs poorly, they change the coach. It can of course work simply because a change occurs that can provide a mental boost regardless of whether the coach was good or bad.

    In any case, an interesting article, but not exactly positive reading:

    https://texty.org.ua/articles/115712/sytuaciya-na-fronti-krytychna-rosiyany-prosuvayutsya-vse-shvydshe-zmenshuyuchy-vtraty/

    1. jahojariaho

      Good gut feeling and I indulged in your speculations! OK here goes nothing?

      The graph in the image you shared (from texty.org.ua) also gives me an impression that doesn’t quite reflect the gut feeling I have and the dynamics that I believe in and that actually happen on the ground. Let me explain why:

      Map vs reality
      The graph shows the total square kilometers that Russia controls over time. It becomes a cumulative line, almost like a “balance”. But it does not take into account how these advances occur, such as small raids, rapid breakthroughs in open fields (with, for example, motorcycles) or temporary villages taken but then retaken. Such “bull rushes” can gain many new km² in a short time, but without strategic depth, they are quickly reversible.

      Ukraine’s counterattacks are not clearly visible
      Even though Ukraine often retakes territory or eliminates Russian troop concentrations, this may not be immediately apparent in the statistics, depending on the data source (in this case deepstatemap.live). This can cause the graph to exaggerate the image of Russian success.

      Kilometers do not equal quality
      Measuring the war in “number of km²” is deceptive, especially if kilometers are used to eliminate ryZzar!.
      – A small breakthrough in the countryside can quickly add many square kilometers.
      – But the important parts are villages, logistic routes, higher terrain, and fortified lines, not just raw area.
      – Ukraine has repeatedly shown that they strike back where it matters most (e.g. logistic hubs and troop concentrations).

      Losses also present a skewed image according to me
      The lower graph shows Russian losses per week. The curve drops from the beginning of 2025, which the graph links to a “more successful offensive”. But it could just as well mean that Russia has switched to a more mechanized tactic (where they burn through area quickly) or simply that they are not reporting as large losses in open sources. At the same time, we know from the front lines (which you usually follow) that they often incur huge human costs even as they advance.

      I suspect that at the same time, they do not want to show Putte that they have significant losses, because then he will probably just increase recruitment! I keep thinking all the time “Ukraine is damn smart and can Maskirovka back, and we saw that clearly before Kursk”.

      1. MXT

        You may be absolutely right, can’t argue with that. The problem is that we know too little and the information we have can be interpreted in different ways.

        Perhaps it’s the case that Ukraine is simply underreporting and withdrawing in the hope that Europe will eventually wake up, or to lull Putin into a false sense of security before striking back (and advancing towards Moscow).

         

    2. johan No.1

      RU has sorted out –

      -strategic drone weapons

      -close-range drone weapons

      -the digital battlefield

      and they now have a functioning tactic.

      whack-a-mole is in their favor.

      everything is constantly changing and an advantage lasts for six months.

      UA has offensive capacity

      what Europe does will determine this war

  3. MXT

    Kallas, as usual, has a good grasp of the situation. 👍

    It is those closest to Russia, with them as neighbors, who also have the greatest insight, then it seems to diminish with distance…

    “An exchange of territory between Ukraine and Russia is a ‘trap Putin wants us to fall into’. That’s according to EU’s foreign minister Kaja Kallas in an interview with the BBC.

    The Donbas region has long been a strategically important place for Russia. In negotiations with US President Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin proposed declaring Donbas as Russian in exchange for freezing the frontlines. This is now being warned against by Kallas. She argues that Putin has not made a single concession in the negotiations.

    – Putin just laughs. He doesn’t stop the killing, but escalates it, she says.”
    https://omni.se/kallas-putin-vill-att-vi-ska-ga-in-i-hans-falla/a/5Ex60z

    1. MXT

      Not that I know of.
      Around what time was it?

      It could have been some kind of DDOS attack, so it got overloaded and couldn’t respond.
      But it must have been a minor attack in that case, otherwise I would have received a warning.

  6. 205

     

     

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 4
    S Slobozhansky 10💥
    Kupyansk 5
    Lyman 24💥💥↘️
    Siverskyi 5
    Kramatorsk 6↗️
    Toretsk 6↘️
    Pokrovsk 43💥💥↘️
    Novopavlivka 35💥💥↗️
    Huliaypillia 0
    Orikhivsk 0
    Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 2

    Over the past day, the missile forces and artillery of the Defense Forces struck nine areas where personnel, weapons, and military equipment were concentrated, two missile forces and artillery units, six command posts, and two fuel and lubricant depots of the Russian invaders.

    In the North-Slobozhansky and Kursk directions, Ukrainian soldiers repelled four attacks by the invaders over the past day. The enemy also carried out nine air strikes, using 17 guided aerial bombs, and carried out 252 shelling attacks, six of which were from multiple launch rocket systems.

    In the South Slobozhanskyi direction, the enemy made ten unsuccessful attempts to advance near the settlements of Synelnykove, Vovchansk, Khatne, Ambarne, Zapadne, and in the direction of Kolodyazne.

    Yesterday, there were five attacks by the occupiers in the Kupiansk direction. The defense forces repelled the enemy’s assault in the areas of Golubivka and Kupiansk.

    There were 24 combat clashes in the Lyman direction. The enemy attempted to advance near the settlements of Karpivka, Zelenaya Dolina, Kolodyazi, Dibrova, Zarichne, Torske, and in the direction of Yampil.

    In the Siverskyi direction, our troops repelled five enemy attacks in the areas of Serebryanka, Vyimka, Hryhorivka, Siversk, and Fedorivka.

    In the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy carried out six attacks in the area of Bila Hora and towards Predtechino.

    Over the past day, in the Toretsk direction, the enemy attacked Ukrainian defense units six times in the areas of Oleksandro-Kalynove, Pleshchiivka, Sofiivka, Poltavka, and Toretsk.

    In the Pokrovsk direction, over the past day, our defenders stopped 43 assaults by the aggressor near the settlements of Nikanorivka, Novoekonomichne, Mykolaivka, Rodynske, Sukhetske, Horikove, Myrolyubivka, Chervonyi Lyman, Promin, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Novopavlivka, Muravka, Novoukrainka, Zatyshok, Kotlyne, Udachne, Lysivka, and Dachne.

    In the Novopavlivka direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 35 attacks by invaders in the areas of the settlements of Voskresenka, Zaporizke, Temyrivka, Zelenе Pole, Tolstoy, Lisne, Olgivske, and in the direction of the settlements of Komyshuvakha and Filiya.

    The enemy did not conduct any offensive operations in the Huliaipole and Orikhiv directions.

    In the Prydniprovsk direction, enemy units twice attempted to advance but were unsuccessful.

    In the Volyn and Polissya directions, no signs of the formation of enemy offensive groups were detected.

    1. 205

      Novopavlivka, south of Pokrovsk, highest in over a month and top 5 since the beginning of May. In contrast, somewhat lower than usual in Pokrovsk. A shift in the focus of attacks southward? At least for now.

  7. Kaitsetahe

    It is also possible to interpret the reduced losses as saving people and material for something else.

    Russia’s war in Ukraine is starting to feel a little like a diversion…. We know that they had plans to continue into the Baltics in the beginning, maybe those plans have been resumed, albeit modified?

    Or maybe I am wrong.

    1. MXT

      It would be alarming for two reasons. Firstly, that they might target the Baltic states, but secondly, that it would mean they have a significant advantage over Ukraine, being able to take territory at an increased pace while conserving resources and building up their reserves.

    2. Lasse W

      I wonder. The Russians are stretched thin on a prolonged front line in Ukraine. They have lost much of their combat power in virtually all weapon types. If they attempt anything in the Baltics, it will likely be a provocation that NATO aircraft can handle.

    1. MXT

      😂  Everyone is so mean to the Russians. Now Estonia is planning to invade them! 

      Sounds like Johan might be right, the likelihood of Russia invading Estonia suddenly increased by 100%!

    2. CB500four

      The Russians have a peculiar compulsive behavior in that they always accuse others of what they themselves are thinking of doing. However, it should come from a more official source before the Estonians need to watch out for drones. The scabies foxes usually throw crap around all the time.

    2. CB500four

      Regarding the statement from Orban, the truthfulness of it may be somewhat questionable.

      They have soon had 4 years to redirect oil and gas purchases to Western suppliers, but haven’t done a thing, so they have only themselves to blame.

      It’s never too late to mend one’s ways.

  12. Lasse W

    Yes, or that Russia has noticed that there are talks in the West about Russia planning to enter the Baltics. Then poor little Estonia must be designated as the aggressor by Skabeeva.

  17. MXT

    USA

    “The FBI has searched through former security adviser John Bolton’s home in Maryland. This is reported by a source to AP. The source says it is an investigation into the ‘handling of classified documents’.

    Bolton has neither been arrested nor suspected of any crime, and neither the White House nor Bolton’s legal representative want to comment on the raid.

    Bolton worked for Trump during his first term but has recently become a vocal critic of the president. On Donald Trump’s first day as president in January, he removed security clearances for four former officials, Bolton being one of them.

    FBI chief Kash Patel writes in a cryptic post on X that ‘no one is above the law’.”
    https://omni.se/fbi-soker-igenom-tidigare-trump-radgivarens-hem/a/B0O3rQ

    1. CB500four

      Could it possibly be that the decision was politically motivated 🤔 

      I think there will be more of that, Trump has been in contact with both Putin, Orban, and Lukashenko, so he probably knows how to handle opponents discreetly enough.

      1. MXT

        Well, this is not the only example. Actually starting to wonder if those who warned before the election about Project 2025 etc. were actually right.

  18. MXT

    Epstein
    “Before the end of the day, the US Department of Justice will hand over the first parts of the Epstein investigation to the American Congress. However, the release may take time, writes Politico’s Hailey Fuchs in an analytical text:

    “It may take a while before lawmakers get the information they want – if they ever get it”.

    The reason is that the Department of Justice, controlled by the Trump administration, demands “careful scrutiny” of how the documents are redacted before being released, says a source to the newspaper.

    The handling is a “delicate balancing act” for the Republicans between transparency and potentially embarrassing revelations about Donald Trump and the government’s handling of the investigation, writes NPR’s Claudia Grisales.”

    https://omni.se/analys-idag-overlamnas-epsteinfiler-andrar-inget/a/GykQM9

      1. MXT

        🤣 Of course!

        It will be wonderful later when they release the documents and Trmup and Turmp etc. are included because they forgot to search for and replace misspelled variants. 😆

  23. johan No.1

    Stylish posters by MXT and 205 👍👍

    That’s why you should hang out here and not in other threads.

    Have you also felt how the wind has turned?

    – Hungary and Slovakia ran out of soup and Europe SUPPORTS IT and laughs at them.

    – Macron calls the Russians ORCHER AND BARBARIANS.

    Europe has finally had enough – yes, this could turn into a 1939 and we declare war and do nothing but Europe HAS NOW FINALLY WOKEN UP.

    As I said – a lot going on now but the Sicilian mafia boss was summoned back to Italy at short notice, wondering if they are waiting with baseball bats and horse heads?

    Seems to have survived after a report you had given the Nobel Prize to – how to say what you want to say without stepping on anyone’s toes.

    School is fixed now, only took six months…

    And the company got tired of all the car accidents so they took the car and gave me a bag of money instead – now I buy the whole package as a service and don’t have to have a driver and gas card. Suddenly all my transportation problems disappeared overnight, and there was money left over for beer.

    Don’t know if it can get much better, it’s also Friday which helps.

     

  26. MXT

    Off-Topic

    Isn’t it incredibly stupid to burn them? Auction them off and take it as a customs fee or donate the money to something meaningful. It must be some ill-considered regulations causing this, I assume.

    “About 1,000 Labubu dolls, the Chinese collector’s item that has become popular worldwide recently, have been seized by customs at the border between Sweden and Norway. Norwegian media reports this. Customs seized the dolls in two batches, on August 1st and August 14th. The value of the dolls, which often cost thousands of kronor, far exceeded the limit for import without customs duties. The dolls, currently at the customs office in Svinesund, are at risk of being burned.”

    https://omni.se/a/Vzm1wl

  27. MXT

    “Hungary and Slovakia react with anger after Ukraine attacked an oil pipeline in the Russian Druzhba, thereby halting deliveries to the countries. According to AFP, they have turned to the EU and in a letter urged the union to ”act against Ukraine’s repeated attacks” on the pipeline. ”Such attacks are a direct and unacceptable assault on our energy security”, writes Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto in a post on X. “

    https://omni.se/a/QM1x14

    They do not want to help and support other countries that are really struggling, but suddenly they are the ones in need and they want help from both the USA and the EU.

    A bit like the response in the link Johan posted earlier. We have exactly the same empathy for Hungary as Hungary has shown for Ukraine. Nothing at all.

  29. Kaitsetahe

    I continue FredagsFyllan(TM) in a slightly different spirit…
    Whether you understand the background or not, it’s pretty fun…

    Doom Slayer vs Hazbin Hotel [ Daisy ] 1-3 Parts

    Part 1:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDgVvnQ5-VI&list=PLSHya92fdKVV4QKCP8-fPaFQv37GqVbeZ&index=16

    Part 2:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgfH_Pao3Ls&list=PLSHya92fdKVV4QKCP8-fPaFQv37GqVbeZ&index=17

    Part 3:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOHsN_zA_vs&list=PLSHya92fdKVV4QKCP8-fPaFQv37GqVbeZ&index=18

     

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