The war in Ukraine 2025-08-24

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Russian losses in Ukraine:

  • 910 KIA
  • 3 AFVs
  • 40 Artillery systems
  • 1 Anti-aircraft system
  • 121 UAVs
  • 81 Vehicles & Fuel tanks

SLAVA UKRAINI

USA and Europe’s plan for Ukraine

When it comes to the US handling of the war in Ukraine, it has been discussed endlessly. During Biden’s presidency, the majority seems to agree that the plan was to provide Ukraine with just enough support to defend itself and not lose, but not enough to decisively win the war on the battlefield. One of the pieces of evidence for this is, for example, not allowing Ukraine to advance deep into Russian territory, but also asking them to halt their overly successful offensives, etc.
There are several motives behind this behavior. They do not want to be seen as the provocative party to avoid an escalation that could lead to a new world war, they are afraid that Putin might actually follow through on his threats to use nuclear weapons, etc. If Ukraine were to win decisively, it could lead to chaos in Russia, which in turn could lead to Putin being ousted, and parts of the country breaking up, etc. They know how to deal with Putin, but how will potential successors act and what happens if local leaders gain control of nuclear weapons, etc.
Another motive could possibly be that a too strong Ukraine might provoke them to seek revenge by entering Russia and trying to take Moscow.
Fear and cowardice would thus be the underlying cause.

Personally, I lean towards the idea that it is mainly about letting Russia slowly drain itself. War costs enormous amounts of money, and sooner or later Russia will not be able to continue fighting, primarily because they will no longer have the economy to support it, but also because the population will eventually grow tired as conditions worsen. Ukraine would win the war, but not due to superior military capability.
An economically devastated Russia forced to surrender could also be easier to negotiate peace with, as the prospect of lifted sanctions, etc., would be a significant incentive. The USA could also increase its influence by offering assistance with reconstruction, etc. Paradoxically, a weakened Russia could be a way to approach them and diminish the influence of their main adversary, China.

Other motives that may have led to not taking more action could be purely economic, combined with public opinion. War costs enormous amounts of money, and at some point, it naturally reaches a limit where people feel it is becoming too expensive, especially in the USA. If, for example, support to Ukraine had been significantly increased, it might not have been just the MAGA supporters who started to grumble.

The plan itself is not inherently flawed from a purely American perspective. At the same time, it is extremely cynical towards Ukraine and its population. Ukraine is losing soldiers and civilians every day, not to mention cities and infrastructure being leveled to the ground.

Ukraine has not been provided with enough resources in terms of air defense, etc., to stop the nightly terror attacks, they have not been assisted with air support to control Ukrainian airspace, etc.

Regarding Europe, it seems that they have completely let the USA take the lead, and they seem to have roughly the same end goal since they have not done more for Ukraine. However, this could also be due to being war-weary and simply having downsized their defense capabilities, so they have not had an excess of military equipment to send, and production has been running at a low capacity. Nevertheless, it is clear that more could have been done faster since support was gradually increasing. Unfortunately, this increase seems to have stalled more recently.

The plan to let Russia drain itself and prevent Ukraine from losing not only requires limiting support and preventing them from winning, but also entails preventing them from losing. When North Korea sends materials and soldiers, and China increases its support to Russia, the West must increase its support at the same rate for the plan to hold. This has not happened, and it is because the USA has completely changed its direction after the election.

Before Trump took over the White House, some believed that he would dare to do what Biden was too timid to do, take a tough stance against Putin. This despite the fact that he had already completely contradicted support for Ukraine from the beginning and even had Congress postpone voting on support for six months. Perhaps some thought it was just something he said to rally MAGA supporters. Surveys show, after all, that the majority are in favor of supporting Ukraine and are against Putin.
Trump did not stop the deliveries that had already been approved by Biden, but he has completely halted all new support. He does allow Europe to purchase weapons and ammunition. There is, of course, a risk that this will also happen if peace negotiations stall.

Trump’s plan seems to be about ending the war as quickly as possible, and he does not seem to have any issues with letting Russia win. He imposes tariffs on the rest of the world, pressures Ukraine to give up land, etc.

Most in the West find it difficult to understand Trump’s behavior. Speculations range from compromising material to being indebted to Putin, to truly wanting to win the Nobel Peace Prize, etc. Those who believe that Trump has a well-thought-out plan argue that he completely disregards Ukraine because what happens there is of no interest, it is the archenemy China that he wants to combat. By giving Russia what they want, he would thus draw them closer and get them to align with the West and abandon China.

Personally, I see it as wishful thinking. China’s grip on Russia is enormous, and they are entirely dependent on assistance from there. China has, among other things, invested enormous sums in various projects in Russia even before the war; they are (together with India) Russia’s largest customers. Russia will not leave China; they are far too dependent on them.

However, it is clear that the war has significantly increased China’s influence. An end to the war where the USA (and the West) to some extent resume trade and even invest in Russia could reduce China’s increased influence, but believing that Russia will leave China is naive.
When the war ends, it will rather further strengthen China’s position. When it is time for Russia’s economy to transition to civilian activities, China is the most likely candidate to help. IF Russia does transition after a potential peace in Ukraine. They have gained momentum, and if it turns out that the USA and Europe allow them to win, the likelihood is high that they will continue on the current path. New attacks on Ukraine, the Baltics, or any other country will be the next target.
Of course, they will not want to be dependent on the USA at that point, an USA that may no longer be under Trump’s control. A USA that can quickly halt all trade, etc. No, it is China that will continue to be their closest ally. A China that has officially stated that they are against the war but supports Russia as much as they can.

Russia also seemed to be approaching the West since the 90s. We have the results on how it went. If the war in Ukraine ends with a Russian victory, they will start a new war sooner or later. Then we are back to square one again without having gained anything, not even a weakened relationship with China.

The USA and Europe have roughly equal economies. (The US economy is slightly larger and they have significantly more influence in the world. Partly because they have such high consumption that almost everyone depends on exporting to them, and partly because they have a much stronger military capability.)

If the goal is to weaken China, Trump would have instead strengthened ties with Europe, Russia’s economy is nothing compared to the USA and Europe. Improving trade between us and collectively looking for solutions where both parties can reduce China’s influence would have been the most logical way to go.
Here, even a flourishing Ukraine that has defeated Russia could become a strong partner.

Instead, Trump has involved us in endless peace negotiations where he pretends to threaten Russia while Putin continues to gain more time. This seems to have partially paralyzed Europe. Instead of significantly increasing support, it seems they are waiting. There might be peace, so it might be unnecessary to send too much, seems to be the reasoning.

What Trump is doing is purely destructive, not only for Ukraine but for all parties except for Russia and China, regardless of how one views the matter.

China’s stance on the war in Ukraine

Now we come to what I actually wanted to write about. China. As mentioned, we have analyzed and debated the actions of the USA, but discussions around China are rare. How do they reason about the war and what outcome do they want?

As mentioned, Russia is completely dependent on China. China could throw Russia under the bus at any time (as another writer claimed a couple of years ago) and put an end to the war. Since this has not happened, it is obvious that they do not want that.

At the same time, China has a much larger military power than Russia. They could just as easily join forces with Russia and help them take over Ukraine.

Instead, they assist Russia as much as they can, but mostly with materials classified for civilian use. Drones and technology, golf carts, etc. They do everything to avoid unnecessary sanctions. At the same time, it would not surprise me if they also assist North Korea in terms of their weapon production. In this way, they can indirectly support Russia even with military equipment.

So, China does not want peace, nor do they want to go all the way and send soldiers and weapons.

I am convinced that China has a similar plan to what Biden is suspected of having. They do not want Russia to win the war but neither do they want them to lose. The longer the war lasts, the more influence they gain over Russia, and they can also buy natural resources, mainly oil, at greatly discounted prices. They probably also look forward to Russia’s economy deteriorating as it only increases their chances to gain market share. It is harder to know if they want Russia to crash economically to then make a final push and maybe gain political influence, or if they instead want the war to last a very long time, until they have almost complete economic control and only then can end the war.

One result of this could be that even Russia’s economic collapse is delayed. When Russia no longer has the economy to support the mines and other industries that Putin needs to continue producing war materials (many have already started reducing workweeks, etc.) and they are eventually on the brink of closure, it is not entirely unlikely that China, as a benefactor, offers to buy them cheaply and continue running them until they feel they have enough control.

Reaching a quick but unfair peace with Russia as the winner, as I have already written, could potentially reduce China’s increased influence, but there is a high risk of a new war soon. Russia’s only chance to show strength is at the expense of other countries.
If we get a new war, we will once again be in the same situation. China would once again continue to tighten its grip on Russia.

The best solution, regardless of how one views it, is to support Ukraine so that they can defeat Russia and win the war.

SLAVA UKRAINI

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101 thoughts on “The war in Ukraine 2025-08-24”

  1. MXT

    Apologies for the late post!

    Started writing the post, got busy with something else for a while. Continued writing and when I was done, I couldn’t save and publish.

    Turns out I got logged out while away from the computer and didn’t see the message.

    There’s an autosave function, but it only works while you’re logged in.
    At least I didn’t have to rewrite the first paragraph. 😄

    Didn’t feel like rewriting everything, so it’s a bit shortened, but maybe that’s for the best.

  2. MXT
    AFU reports:
    • 179 combat clashes
    • 61 airstrikes
    • 142 KAB
    • 4,363 shells (91 from MLRS)
    • 3,930 kamikaze drones

    Slightly lower than normal, both in terms of drones and artillery.

    1. MXT

      “The Gazprom Ust-Luga gas processing complex, part of the Baltic Gas Chemical Cluster, was hit in the attack, OSINT analysts from CyberBoroshno report. The facility’s cryogenic gas fractionation unit—key to the plant’s operations—sustained critical damage.”

  5. MXT

    It seems that Trump is not any better than Biden when it comes to allowing Ukraine to strike deep into Russia. They may have different reasons for the ban, but regardless, it’s equally foolish.

    Trump wrote on social media the other day that they must defend themselves even in depth, but maybe it was just fake?

    “The Pentagon has secretly prevented Ukraine from carrying out attacks deep into Russia with American missiles, according to two sources to the Wall Street Journal.

    The decision to block was made at a high level within the US Department of Defense in the spring. Since then, Ukraine has asked for permission to use the American missiles at least once, but has been denied.

    While the blockade has been in place, Donald Trump has on several occasions urged Ukraine to attack Russia. Among other things, he wrote on Truth Social as recently as this week that it is “very difficult, if not impossible, to win a war without attacking the invading country”.

    Despite the blockade, Ukraine has carried out several long-distance attacks on Russia but has used other weapons, such as their own developed drones.”
    https://omni.se/kallor-usa-blockerar-kyivs-attacker-mot-ryssland/a/lwGwrM

    “❗️The 🇺🇸Pentagon has been blocking 🇺🇦Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles to strike 🇷🇺Russia since late spring, — WSJ. Deputy Defense Secretary Colby has developed a consent mechanism that gives Defense Secretary Hegseth the final authority to decide whether Ukraine can use ATACMS to strike Russia.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lx4u3yn5a223

     

    3. CB500four

      One should not attach too much importance to Trump’s statements, but sometimes one wonders if Trump actually has control over his subordinates. Hegseth can probably make decisions about weapons for Ukraine on his own, but if Trump says they must have offensive capabilities, then Hegseth should give in, or else he is loosely sitting next to the council.

      It could also just be one in a series of statements from Trump that lack substance.

  8. MXT

    ” Ukraine and Sweden agreed on joint defense production in both countries. Together with Swedish Defense Minister @PlJonson , we signed a Letter of Intent during his visit to Ukraine. It enhances cooperation in defense industry projects, ensures sustainability and reciprocity, and expands technology exchange to strengthen resilience of both our nations. Grateful to Sweden for unwavering support, including joining #PURL and allocating $486M with Norway & Denmark, and for ASC 890 aircraft. We also discussed military aviation training, joint defence innovation, and cooperation in space technologies. Thank you, Sweden!”
    https://x.com/Denys_Shmyhal/status/1959512108392976661

  9. Umlaut

    The analysis about China, I believe, hits the nail on the head. China takes the opportunity to drain the Moscow treasury, while continuing to trade with the rest of the world. Once the war is over, China will have Moscow in its pocket and unrestricted access to Moscow’s raw materials. Will surely also ensure very open concessions in the Russian Far East where the Chinese obey Chinese law and not Russian (US anyone?). In practice, a takeover/reconquest of China’s sphere of interest. Congratulations Putin, you have succeeded in making your country into Belarus in relation to China.

    1. MXT

      Yes, Putin has painted himself into a corner. This was supposed to only take between three days to three weeks. Now he can’t stop waging war until he can show a big win for Russia, at the same time, the longer it goes on, the more help he is forced to get from China.

      The economy is starting to crack and in several places, the number of working days has been reduced and they are showing decreased sales figures and operating at a loss. When the Russian state no longer has enough money to support them, it becomes an easy target for China to make low bids with promises to continue production.

      So the war may last a very long time. Neither Biden’s (low-intensity support until collapse) nor Trump’s plan (peace at any cost) is working.

  10. 205

    A strong wave of attacks on Siversk and Kramatorsk. Kramatorsk mentioned by the President of Finland Alexander Stubb as a stronghold, well fortified, from where Ukraine can hold the Russians at bay in the northeast. Clearly the Russians are trying to get to it. Also increasing in the east (Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka).

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 4
    S Slobozhansky 10💥
    Kupyansk 6
    Lyman 20💥💥↘️
    Siverskyi 12💥↗️
    Kramatorsk 16💥↗️
    Toretsk 10💥
    Pokrovsk 52💥💥💥↗️
    Novopavlivka 33💥💥↗️
    Huliaypillia 0
    Orikhivsk 1
    Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 2

     

     

    1. MXT

      👍

      Siversk was something we feared a long time ago, in connection with the fall of Bakhmut, but now it seems that the pressure is increasing. Not so strange perhaps considering that they are also starting to be surrounded.

  11. MXT

    “The Norwegian government has decided to contribute seven billion Swedish kronor to Ukraine’s air defense, reports NTB.

    Together with Germany, they will pay for two Patriot systems and missiles, in addition, Norway is also buying air defense radar.

    – This is a major investment in an effective air defense. The support will provide Ukraine with important tools to protect Ukrainian lives and contribute to a stronger defense,” says Norwegian Minister of Defense Tore O. Sandvik.”
    https://omni.se/norge-bidrar-med-miljarder-till-ukrainskt-luftforsvar/a/73e3a8

  12. MXT

    “Finland’s geographical location makes the country a player in the negotiations between Ukraine, the USA, and Russia. That’s what their president Alexander Stubb said after the meeting in the White House with Donald Trump on Monday. But above all, it’s his character that has made him Europe’s ‘Trump whisperer,’ writes TT.

    Trump praised Stubb during the meeting and said that he ‘looks better than ever.’ The two have met several times, including to play golf. Politico has previously referred to him as ‘Europe’s special envoy to Trump.’ And he is appreciated in the president’s circles.

    In an interview with the Wall Street Journal at the end of July, American Senator Lindsey Graham said that Stubb has been a bridge between Europe and Trump, and that the two are in almost daily contact.

    Stubb himself says that it’s because he understands how both Europe and Trump think.

    ‘People know that we Finns have no hidden agenda, and that we speak frankly,’ Stubb told WSJ.”
    https://omni.se/trumpviskaren-tog-plats-vid-bordet-talar-rakt-pa-sak/a/o35300

    1. MXT

      “A comment from the President of Finland, Alexander Stubb, is gaining widespread attention in Russia, reports NRK.

      Yesterday, the president stated that the relationship between Finland and Russia “can begin when the war is over.” This has made headlines and is now being interpreted as Stubb wanting to warm up relations with Russia, with some Russian media even writing that Stubb “wants to resolve the dispute between the countries.”

      – We have a history with Russia, and we will have a future with Russia, said Stubb on Yle’s program Ykkösaamu.

      For example, the Russian channel RT, known as the Kremlin’s propaganda channel, writes that historically it is “extremely rare” for Finland and Russia to have no diplomatic relations.”
      https://omni.se/stubb-viral-i-ryssland-tror-finland-vill-losa-tvisten-mellan-landerna/a/lwGwPe

      1. Lasse W

        Not a bad idea with a thawed relationship between Russia and Finland. The Russians may be getting tired of war and geopolitical isolation and want to improve relations to the west. War comes with a price. It may also have implications for the Baltics.

  13. MXT

    “Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has arrived in Kyiv to celebrate Ukraine’s Independence Day from the Soviet Union, several news agencies report.

    At this critical moment in the country’s history, Canada is increasing its support and efforts for a just and lasting peace for Ukraine,” Carney writes in X.

    Across Europe, in cities like Stockholm and London, government buildings and authorities are raising Ukraine’s flag to show support in the country’s struggle for freedom from Russia.”
    https://omni.se/varldsledare-i-kyiv-infor-sjalvstandighetsdagen/a/wg1gqd

  18. 205

    🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Pentagon has quietly barred Ukrainian long-range strikes in Russia with US missiles, WSJ reports. The U.S. has quietly implemented a review process giving Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth authority to approve Ukrainian long-range strikes inside Russia with American missiles, effectively blocking strikes for months, the Wall Street Journal reported on Aug. 23.

    https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-has-quietly-barred-ukrainian-long-range-strikes-in-russia-with-us-missiles-wsj-reports/

    ”The review mechanism [..] oversees Ukraine’s use of American-made weapons and European weapons, which rely on U.S. intelligence and components”

    ”The new review process applies to the British long-range Storm Shadow missiles due to its reliance on U.S. targetting data”

    ”On at least one occasion, Ukraine has planned to use ATACMS against a target within Russian territory but was denied approval”

  20. 205

    🇨🇳 🇺🇦 China ready to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, German media reports. German media outlet Welt reported, citing anonymous EU sources, that China has signalled it is prepared to send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. However, China is prepared to do so only “if the peacekeeping forces were deployed on the basis of a mandate from the United Nations (UN),” the sources told Welt.

    https://kyivindependent.com/china-ready-to-send-peacekeeping-troops-to-ukraine-german-media-reports/

  22. jahojariaho

    First comes the “revelation”: the USA is said to not have given Ukraine permission to attack. Shortly thereafter follows the Russian lie that Ukrainian drones were supposed to have caused a fire at a nuclear power plant, which has already been extinguished!

    This is how the narrative is constructed: plant a seed about the USA’s “control”, follow up with an accusation against Ukraine, and then lean back while useful idiots of journalists quote both allegations as if they were two sides of the same coin.

    But the truth is crystal clear:

    Those who are hiding Ukraine! Ukraine is not at risk of a nuclear disaster. It is Russia that has occupied and militarized nuclear power plants.
    This is an attempt to undermine trust between the USA, Ukraine, and Europe.

    Propaganda only works if we accept to become megaphones for it. Maskirovka should be exposed, not reproduced as “balanced reporting”.

    #fckptn

    1. 205

      Perestroika and FSB are two different cups of tea. The latter was never dismantled despite Perestroika and Glasnost. It is from the FSB that the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, originates.

  26. MXT

    USA

    As I wrote about Washington, we will see him do the same thing in more cities and now it seems to be Chicago’s turn.

    “Illinois Democratic Governor JB Pritzker accuses Donald Trump of ”abuse of power”, reports BBC. The reason is the president’s plans to send the American National Guard to Chicago to combat crime.

    ”Donald Trump is trying to create a crisis, politicize Americans serving in uniform, and continues to abuse his power to divert attention from the pain he causes families”, writes Pritzker on X.

    The move comes after Trump deployed the National Guard in the capital Washington D.C, something that has been criticized as symbolic politics.”
    https://omni.se/trump-ska-skicka-militar-till-chicago-maktmissbruk/a/Avorz5

    1. CB500four

      They must put a stop to his abuse of power, he is taking more and more control of the National Guard, soon it will be like Omon, a military organization to protect the power from the people.

      1. MXT

        Yes, if it goes too far and Trump manages to replace everyone in key positions with those loyal to him and not to the USA, it will be too late.

        Then it won’t matter how people choose to vote, it will be taken to court where the election result will be invalidated and with the National Guard, the police, and the military on his side, no protests and demonstrations will be able to stop it.

    2. MXT

      “The White House has been sketching plans for a military operation in Chicago for several weeks, according to sources for the Washington Post. Among several alternatives being considered are plans to deploy thousands of National Guard soldiers in the city as early as next month.

      Donald Trump has recently stated that Chicago is next in line in the president’s efforts to curb crime in several cities through federal interventions. All the cities singled out by Trump have Democratic leadership.”
      https://omni.se/kallor-militara-planer-har-diskuterats-i-veckor/a/LMw4qx

  28. Kaitsetahe

    I maintain my analysis that China uses Russia and North Korea as proxies.

    The goal is to access Russia’s resources and divide the Western world – a part of “Made in China 2030/2050”.

    Due to Russia’s weakness, China will be able to move its border to Finland. Russia remains a nation on paper, but in practice, it is a puppet republic under Beijing.

    Furthermore, China uses the Ukraine war as training and development for its own troops. Do you really think that ALL North Koreans are just North Koreans?? There are probably quite a few “others” mixed in as well.

    1. MXT

      Russia has long tried to spread the image that it is Ukraine being used for proxy wars by the USA and that even Europe is completely controlled from there, in fact it may be just as you write, it is China using Russia. I do not think so, at least not from the beginning, but it is entirely possible.

      That there are Chinese on site has probably been proven, but China denied it and argued that in that case it is Chinese who have gone there on their own, but probably no one believes that.

      If nothing else, it would be a dereliction of duty for them not to have people on site as observers to monitor the situation and perhaps mainly when it comes to the use of drones.

      So they sure as hell benefit from the war also to sharpen their own military.

      Then, if it is a proxy war, one can wonder how far they intend to take it. In some of Johan’s yellow walls about the Baltics, he has argued that Russia and China will join forces, and China had (has) troops in Belarus. Even there, I do not think it will happen, but at the same time it is not entirely unreasonable either.

  29. johan No.1

    Great post MXT 👍👍👍

    It is probably confirmed in statements that the USA has also stopped Ukraine now during Trump.

    Now remains to see if Europe has broken free from the paralysis.

    1. MXT

      Thank you!

      A lot of news has come in today about support for Ukraine from various sources, but not to the extent one would hope for. Now perhaps they are increasingly trying to keep it secret considering the risk of sabotage, at the same time it is important to communicate it as well.

      Of course, we still don’t know exactly what Trump will come up with (just as you have pointed out on several occasions, he can decide) but at some point Europe must realize that they must forget about him.

      If he then chooses the right path, it can be seen as a bonus, but it is absolutely not something one can rely on.

      Trump is sending some participants to Russia’s equivalent of Eurovision, and then he invited Russia to the World Cup in football.. Feels like he is doing everything he can to invite Russia in.

    1. MXT

      Europe would never give such approval if asked, and I also do not believe that Ukraine would choose to deliberately attack a nuclear power plant (although one can never be completely sure, maybe they deliberately fly drones nearby just to cause trouble for the Russians).

      It has even been a red line from Russia’s side (except for Chernobyl of course, but that was not active, and it is unclear whether it was deliberate or not).

      Here it is suggested that it was a downed drone:

      “Downed Ukrainian Drone Causes Fire At Kursk Nuclear Power Plant”
      https://www.rferl.org/a/kursk-nuclear-power-plant-fire-ukraine-drone/33511527.html

      2. johan No.1

        You wanted to nuance why Ukraine didn’t fight raff. A few weeks ago.

        Even after sirsky said they weren’t allowed to fight targets in Russia for Europe and the USA

        So when Ukraine didn’t want to fight drizba, you were also on that track, right?

        1. MXT

          I believe that Ukraine, out of pure politeness, waited with Druzhba, now that it is essentially only those within the EU who stand on Russia’s side that are still dependent on oil, they may have concluded that they have nothing to lose on it.

          Then, sure, it may have been that the EU said “Do whatever you want with Druzhba” but I don’t think so, and even if they did, I never think they would give the OK to attack a nuclear power plant.

          Although my guess is as good as yours.

           

      1. MXT

        Tom. The USA warned Russia not to attack nuclear power plants. Most people are terrified of what could happen, and if the worst were to happen, it could affect civilians in a radius of several miles. Very unlikely that it will happen even if they were hit, but it doesn’t matter.

        Ukraine would risk the world turning against them. Trump would probably be the first to exploit the situation if something were to happen, and already now, although it seems to be a downed drone, they seem to be trying to use it against Ukraine.

    1. MXT

      Interesting, a bit unexpected place to carry it out as well.👍

      It’s easy to see the indentations in the front as roads for Russia to surround Ukraine and then cut off, but it’s actually the same in the other direction. The Russians could just as easily be surrounded and cut off. If we see an attack also from the eastern side, it may be that Ukraine is aiming to cut off the Russians.

  34. MXT

    I hope that Zelenskyy has a ghostwriter managing his Twitter account. There have been several “Thank you for your support!” today.

    “US President Donald Trump is one of many leaders who have sent congratulations to Ukraine on the occasion of the country’s Independence Day on Sunday, reports CNN.

    “The USA supports a negotiated agreement that leads to lasting peace, puts an end to bloodshed, and ensures Ukraine’s independence,” the letter says.

    The message comes just days after the American president extended the deadline for Russia to approach an agreement for peace. Emmanuel Macron, Ulf Kristersson, Keir Starmer, and Xi Jinping are among those who have expressed their support for Ukraine today.”

  35. MXT

    Trump and corruption

    Pam Bondi (US Attorney General) is asked if she does not find it concerning that the company MGX from the United Arab Emirates is buying Trump coins for 2 billion USD and then suddenly gets approval to import AI chips from the USA, chips that are otherwise prohibited from export for security reasons.

    Pam Bondi completely avoids the question and starts rambling about how one should instead worry about Mexico, drugs, and illegal immigration.

    Do you think Trump is doing what is best for the USA or what is best for himself?

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/6anUCSfqCug

     

      1. MXT

        Don’t know much but it’s a state investment company that mainly focuses on companies within AI and chip with the goal of becoming a global leader in AI.

        They have connections to the security sector, led by their security chief, and have been criticized for close collaboration with China, including in security solutions, and they have cooperation with the group G42. They have been investigated by the USA due to suspicions of, among other things, illegal surveillance.

         

         

    2. CB500four

      Pam Bondi is one of the few of Trump’s appointments who has the competence for the position she has been given. Unfortunately, she also seems to be totally loyal.

      1. DJ

        Being competent doesn’t help when you’re forced to defend something so obviously corrupt. Even if the current MAGA crowd can dismiss it, a new generation will see this and be disgusted. One might even wonder if a few less brainwashed Trump voters wish for the days of Clinton and her Foundation back, at least they handled it a bit more elegantly.

  38. MXT

    “Ukraine confirms the POW exchange. Among those released are civilians taken hostage by Russia. Journalist Dmytro Khilyuk is finally free after being abducted in Kyiv region in March 2022. Former Kherson mayor Volodymyr Mykolayenko was also released as part of the exchange.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/twmcltd.bsky.social/post/3lx5mynmets2n

    “❗️⚡️Ukrainian Defenders return from Russian captivity!”
    https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3lx5ngtf2xc2s

    1. MXT

      More nonsense from that guy.

      “Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accuses the West’s attempt to arrange a meeting between Putin and Zelensky of being a way to stop the peace negotiations, reports AFP.

      – They are just looking for an excuse to block the negotiations, Lavrov said on state TV.

      Russia has previously criticized Western leaders for wanting to set unreasonable conditions for the meeting, conditions that they know Russia will not accept. Zelensky, on the other hand, has expressed willingness to meet if the Kremlin opens up about security guarantees.”
      https://omni.se/lavrov-vast-vill-blockera-fredssamtal/a/JbzO67

  42. MXT

    “Sweden and Ukraine have signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly produce defense material for Ukraine in Sweden, the government reports. Minister of Defense Pål Jonson (M) signed the agreement during a visit to Kyiv on Saturday.

    – With the memorandum of understanding, we aim to strengthen the Swedish and Ukrainian defense capabilities, he said in a statement.

    Romania, Poland, and Denmark are already assisting Ukraine in a similar manner.”
    https://omni.se/sverige-skriver-nytt-avtal-med-ukraina-om-materiel/a/QM1JqW

  50. jahojariaho

    Putin will not back down, for his plan is known in the Duma! He cannot deviate from this, for then he will lose all his faces (including the copies). The concept of Novorossiya (Новоро́ссия) means “New Russia”. Novorossiya is not a neutral geographical term, it is an imperial vision. Putin’s propaganda narrative justifies that Ukraine is not a real state, but an area that “actually” belongs to Russia. The war is described as a struggle to restore Russia’s sphere of interest. Moscow sees the world as divided into spheres of influence of great powers, where small states are not allowed full sovereignty. When the West denies this logic, Russia perceives it as a cause for war. Russia has a “natural right” to spheres of interest in the former Soviet area. NATO’s expansion is seen as a violation of this (“the West is encroaching on our sphere”). Ukraine, the Baltic states, Georgia, and others are considered in Russian doctrine as “near abroad” (blizhnee zarubezhye) where the West should not interfere. Finland is a part they do not officially mention, but it is included! #fckptn

    1. MXT

      The only way to stop him is therefore by force, or total economic collapse to the extent that they can no longer continue, or that he is simply deposed in one way or another.

      2. CB500four

        Yes, that’s how it is, but as long as they make progress in Ukraine, they probably tolerate a poor economy longer. We in the West should ensure that Ukraine has the opportunity to push the Russians back, then the collapse will come.

    2. johan No.1

      We have entered the most dangerous phase of the war – a cornered Putin.

      his life is at stake.

      game on says Ukraine so do we

      Russia must turn inwards, we have said since 2022

      1. MXT

        The economy is starting to look really bad in the end, but it may take another year before it becomes decisive. When their fund is depleted, and Ukraine has knocked out enough raff together with the rest of the economic downturn, ordinary people will eventually feel it seriously.

        Maybe, just maybe, that’s when the collapse happens from within.

    3. Umlaut

      Another sign of institutional imperialism in Muscovy is that it is the FSB, the national security service, and not the SVR, the foreign intelligence service, that handles espionage activities in former Soviet states.

  51. MXT

    “Despite all the commotion and all the top meetings, Donald Trump has not come much closer to his goal of ‘stopping the killing and ending the war in Ukraine,’ writes Karen Tumulty in an analysis in the Washington Post.

    Tumulty finds it hard to imagine that a meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin will be able to take place as long as Russian rockets rain down over Ukraine, and adds:

    ‘And Moscow shows neither enthusiasm nor urgency for a face-to-face meeting.’

    Kim Barker and Constant Meheut write in the New York Times that all negotiations boil down to what will happen with Donbas, which consists of the regions Donetsk and Luhansk.

    One scenario discussed in the media is that the frontlines could be frozen in exchange for Ukraine gaining full control over Donbas. This proposal is criticized by Jyllands-Posten’s Poul Funder Larsen.

    ‘Russia is not content with a few provincial towns in Donetsk. They want the opportunity to influence Ukraine’s future development,’ he tells DR.”
    https://omni.se/analys-putin-nojer-sig-knappast-med-donbas/a/wg1rko

    2. Umlaut

      Can anyone point out anything positive that Trump has done for Ukraine? I mean, just one thing? And not that he has restored something that his regime itself has worsened (such as access to intelligence). I’m serious, I would like to know for real. Because all I see is empty words and a constant backing off and withdrawing of support. Or at best one step back and then one step forward, with a total of zero steps.

  52. 205

    🦩Fire Point CEO Iryna Terekh revealed to POLITICO that the Flamingo cruise missile went from concept to combat deployment in under nine months. Already in serial production, the company aims to produce around 200 units per month. According to an AP report (Aug. 21, 2025), output currently stands at one missile per day and is set to rise, with exclusive launch footage shared with POLITICO.

    https://www.facebook.com/share/1BSLVVb6om/?mibextid=wwXIfr

  53. DJ

    Those who believe that Trump has a well-thought-out plan argue that he completely ignores Ukraine because what happens there is of no interest at all, the archenemy China is the one they want to combat. By giving Russia what they want, one would thus bring them closer and get them to join the West and leave China.

    I belong to that group, only I don’t think it has anything to do with Trump. It is the “Pentagon” that wants to align with Russia, and it doesn’t matter if the mascot in the White House is named Trump or Biden.

    I think like you that it is a pipe dream, but I believe many Americans have a rather skewed view of the world out there. For example, many otherwise knowledgeable individuals thought that peace would soon come when Trump met Putin – for instance, defense stocks plummeted sharply on the stock exchange. Then one has not understood that Russia wants to control Ukraine in the same way as Belarus, and Ukraine wants to be independent – there is no guarantee that there will be peace while the balance on the battlefield prevails.

    The USA probably has a better chance of success by ensuring that Ukraine prevails and then quickly installing a pro-Western government. Perhaps it doesn’t matter so much that Russia is so intertwined with China as it is today – maybe the important thing is to take control of their nuclear warheads? Consider the list of the number of warheads per country (Wikipedia):

    • Russia: 4309
    • USA: 3700
    • China: 600
    • France: 290
    • United Kingdom: 225
    • India 180, Pakistan 170, Israel 90, North Korea 50.

    I believe this trumps other motives, especially in the Pentagon and in China’s leadership. China, of course, has more reasons to control Russia:

    • Resource colony – this is a given as China’s (attempted) growth consumes enormous amounts of resources.
    • Food production – also a given as it is one of China’s Achilles’ heels in the event of a naval blockade.
    • Territory – at least Manchuria.
    • Buffer zone? If Russia were to become pro-Western, they would be surrounded by enemies almost everywhere.
    • Last but not least, the tactical aspect: As long as the Ukraine war continues, the USA cannot fully focus on crushing China.

    The USA absolutely cannot allow 4309 nuclear warheads to be on China’s side, and for all the above reasons, China cannot let Russia collapse – unless they come up with a way to controlled collapse it into China’s arms. But the safest and easiest way is to kick the can a little further ahead – for both the USA and China.

    This is a nightmare for Ukraine, and perhaps their best strategy is just to reduce the intensity of the war until the focus shifts elsewhere for a reason that is still unknown today.

     

    1. CB500four

      Good analysis there.

      The USA has several reasons to be cautious towards Russia.

      – A Russian collapse means the risk of nuclear proliferation. It went well last time, but now it could be different.

      – The USA wants Russia on its side against China.

      – The USA wants to bind Russia to itself for their natural resources.

      – A cornered rat becomes unpredictable, and if Putin feels he has nothing more to lose, he might push the button.

      The mistake that both the USA and China make is that they believe they can control Russia through trade and agreements. Russia respects no agreements or arrangements where any other party has gained something. They believe that anything someone else has gained is at Russia’s expense, so such an agreement cannot be respected. Violence and military strength are what they respect, so in order to reach an agreement, one must first punch them in the face, and then discuss. However, the agreement obtained only applies until Russia has built up its strength, then they will try their luck again. The best scenario is a fragmented Russia, with small states that can develop separately, without metastases from the mother tumor in the Kremlin.

      1. MXT

        I agree with you there, I think one misjudges Putin and Russia (now that the propaganda has been rampant for 3.5 years, many are probably becoming heavily influenced). Possibly one might be interested in agreements the day the economy has hit rock bottom, but that’s a long way off.

    2. MXT

      Good thoughts regarding my post.

      It may be that one is not easily fooled and believes that it will be possible to get over Russia on one’s side, but simply does not have a better solution and feels that one must try. It could be true if it is the Pentagon behind it.

      Although I have no idea if it is the Pentagon that is in control, completely independent of who is president.

      If so, they have had a strategy during Biden (to only give Ukraine enough to keep the Russians at bay) to suddenly turn just as Trump became president and instead aim to achieve peace as quickly as possible.

      This could be explained by the realization that the “Biden strategy” is not working as they have seen that China is gaining more and more control over Russia, and therefore they choose to try to achieve peace.
      Perhaps not so much to really become friends with Russia but to stop China’s increasing influence.

      But it doesn’t quite feel right either.
      Trump’s insistence that the war must end long before he was elected president.
      Of course, it could be a combination, the Pentagon may have felt that China’s grip has become stronger and thought that it might not be a bad idea to follow Trump’s line.

      Regardless, you are absolutely right that many are probably afraid that nuclear weapons will go astray if Russia were to be defeated and the whole country collapse. There is a risk that extremists get hold of them and that China gets their hands on them (China is almost a better option there).

      Yes, unfortunately, Ukraine has really ended up in a dilemma.

  55. 205

    Operational information as of 08:00 on 25 August 2025 regarding the Russian invasion

    Glory to Ukraine!

    The 1,279th day of large-scale armed aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine has begun.

    Ukrainian defenders are steadfastly holding back the occupiers’ advance, inflicting significant losses on the enemy.

    In total, 159 combat clashes were recorded over the past day.

    According to updated information, yesterday the enemy launched one missile and 79 air strikes, used one missile, and dropped 130 guided aerial bombs. In addition, it carried out 4,735 shellings, including 26 from multiple launch rocket systems, and used 4,711 kamikaze drones to strike targets.

    The aggressor carried out air strikes on the areas of the settlements of Sumy, Nova Huta, Stara Huta in the Sumy region; Bilohirya in the Zaporizhzhia region; Naddniprianske and Lviv in the Kherson region.

    Over the past day, the aviation, missile forces, and artillery of the Defense Forces struck five areas of concentration of personnel, weapons, and military equipment, four artillery systems, one command and observation post, and one enemy electronic warfare station.

    In the North Slobozhansky and Kursk directions, Ukrainian soldiers repelled ten attacks by the invaders over the past day. The enemy also carried out 14 air strikes, using 23 guided aerial bombs, and carried out 206 shelling attacks, including one from a multiple launch rocket system.

    In the South Slobozhanskyi direction, the enemy stormed the positions of our units near the village of Vovchansk and in the direction of Dvorichanskyi five times.

    Yesterday, there were ten attacks by the invaders in the Kupiansk direction. Our defenders repelled enemy assaults near Kupiansk, Zakhidne, Holubivka, and Zelenyi Hai.

    In the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked twenty times. They tried to break through the defenses near the settlements of Novyi Mir, Hrekivka, Torske, Ivanivka, Ridkodub, Karpivka, and in the direction of the settlements of Serednie, Dronivka, Shandryholove, and Serebryanka.

    In the Siverskyi direction, the enemy made twelve attempts to break through in the areas of Serebryanka, Fedorivka, Vyimka, Pereizne, and in the direction of Siversk.

    In the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked six times in the areas of Maiske and Chasove Yaro.

    In the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out five attacks near Shcherbinivka and Rusyn Yar.

    In the Pokrovsk direction, our defenders stopped 46 assaults by the aggressor in the areas of the settlements of Zatyshok, Nikanorivka, Nove Shakhov, Novoekonomichne, Udachne, Shakhov, Myrolyubivka, Mykolaivka, Sukhetske, Lysivka, Zvirove, and in the direction of the settlements of Rodynske, Novoukrainka, Chervonyi Lyman, and Pokrovsk.

    In the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy carried out 31 attacks near the settlements of Zelenе Pole, Iskra, Vilne Pole, Maliivka, Voskresenka, Shevchenko, and Temyrivka, in the direction of the settlements of Filiya, Novomykolaivka, Novogeorgiivka, and Komyshuvakha.

    Defense forces repelled one attack by the occupying forces in the Orikhiv direction near the settlement of Primorske.

    In the Huliaipole and Dnipro directions, the enemy did not conduct offensive operations in the past 24 hours.

    In the Volyn and Polissya directions, no signs of the formation of enemy offensive groups were detected.

    Our soldiers are inflicting significant losses on the occupying forces in terms of manpower and equipment and are actively undermining the enemy’s offensive potential in the rear.

    In total, the losses of the Russian invaders over the past day amounted to 870 people. Ukrainian soldiers also destroyed one tank, eight armored combat vehicles, 48 artillery systems, 291 tactical-level unmanned aerial vehicles, 79 vehicles, and four units of special equipment belonging to the occupiers.

    Join the Defense Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

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