The war in Ukraine 2025-09-04

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Russian losses:

  • 840 KWIA
  • 4 AFVs
  • 43 Artillery systems
  • 2 MLRS
  • 2 Anti-Aircraft systems
  • 261 UAVs
  • 22 Cruise missiles
  • 92 Vehicles and Fuel tanks

SLAVA UKRAINI

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75 thoughts on “The war in Ukraine 2025-09-04”

  1. 205

    A record high number of combat engagements in Lyman.

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 5
    S Slobozhansky 11💥
    Kupyansk 6↘️
    Lyman 41💥💥↗️
    Siverskyi 8↘️
    Kramatorsk 7
    Toretsk 10💥
    Pokrovsk 55💥💥💥↗️
    Novopavlivka 18💥↘️
    Huliaypillia 0
    Orikhivsk 2
    Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 1

    In the North Slobozhansky and Kursk directions, Ukrainian defenders repelled five Russian attacks. Over the past day, the enemy carried out eight air strikes, dropping a total of 24 guided bombs and firing 252 artillery shells, including three from multiple launch rocket systems.

    In the South Slobozhanskyi direction, our troops stopped 11 enemy attacks in the area of the village of Vovchansk and in the direction of Kutkivka.

    Yesterday, there were six attacks by the invaders in the Kupiansk direction. Our defenders repelled enemy assaults in the area of the settlement of Zagryzove and in the direction of Kupiansk and Petropavlivka.

    In the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 41 times, trying to break through our defenses near the settlements of Novomykhailivka, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Torske, Serebryanka, and in the direction of Novyi Mir, Shandryholove, Drobysheve, Yampil, Dronivka, and Siversk.

    In the Siverskyi direction, the Defense Forces repelled eight enemy attacks near Hryhorivka and in the direction of Serebryanka and Vyimka.

    Seven combat clashes took place yesterday in the Kramatorsk direction. The invader attempted to advance towards the settlements of Pazeno and Stupochka.

    In the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out 10 attacks in the areas of the settlements of Diliivka, Shcherbinivka, Katerynivka, and towards Pleshchiivka and Poltavka.

    In the Pokrovsk direction, our defenders stopped 55 assaults by the aggressor in the areas of the settlements of Shakhov, Zapovidne, Zatyshok, Fedorivka, Novoekonomichne, Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, and Gorikove, and in the direction of the settlements of Novy Donbas, Rodynske, Myrnohrad, Promin, Sukhyi Yar, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Molodetsk, and Filiya.

    In the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy carried out 18 attacks yesterday in the areas of the settlements of Yalta, Zelenyi Hai, Tolstoy, Voskresenka, Komyshuvakha, and in the direction of Ivanivka, Novomykhailivka.

    In the Huliaipole direction, the enemy did not conduct any offensive actions over the past day.

    In the Orikhiv direction, the enemy made two attempts to break through the defenses of our defenders in the direction of the settlements of Novodanilivka and Plavni.

    In the Prydniprovsk direction, our defenders successfully stopped an enemy attack in the direction of the settlement of Antonivka.

    In the Volyn and Polissya directions, no signs of the formation of enemy offensive groups were detected.

  4. MXT

    “Russia is not open to foreign peacekeeping troops securing a ceasefire or peace deal in Ukraine, Russian state media reported on Sept. 4, citing Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova.

    “Russia does not intend to discuss foreign intervention in Ukraine, which is fundamentally unacceptable and undermines all security, in any form or format,” she said in response to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announcing that a postwar plan to send troops to Ukraine is being discussed.”
    https://kyivindependent.com/foreign-peacekeepers-unacceptable-in-ukraine-russia-says-as-europe-plans-security-guarantees/

    1. MXT

      “Russia is now warning Europe against implementing the proposed security guarantees, reports TT. Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, says that they would become ‘a springboard for terror, for provocations against our country’.

      ‘They do not guarantee Ukraine’s security, they guarantee danger for the European continent,’ she says.

      The warning comes during an economic forum in Russia and is directed at European leaders ahead of their talks with Zelensky on Thursday, which include discussions on such security guarantees.”
      https://omni.se/kreml-sakerhetsgarantier-en-fara-for-europa/a/5Ex9vz

  6. MXT

    “‘You’ll see things happen’ — Trump says he’s ready to respond as he waits on Putin’s next move

    He’ll make a decision one way or the other. Whatever his decision is, we’ll either be happy about it or unhappy. And if we’re unhappy about it, you’ll see things happen,” Trump said in the Oval Office alongside Polish President Karol Nawrocki as the two leaders met.”

    https://kyivindependent.com/youll-see-things-happen-trump-says-hes-ready-to-respond-as-he-waits-on-putins-next-move/

  8. 205

    Ukrainian drones allegedly hit railway in Russia’s Rostov Oblast, 26 trains delayed. “As a result of the drone attack… the contact network was temporarily disrupted,” Rostov Oblast Governor Yuri Slyusar said.

    – Kyiv Independent

  10. MXT

    Now a majority of Poles are against Ukraine joining NATO.
    Can’t it be anything other than Russian influence?
    Poland should definitely support it in the future, for its own security reasons?

    “A new IBRiS poll for Rzeczpospolita shows 52.7% of Poles now oppose Warsaw supporting Ukraine’s NATO accession, up from 47.7% in 2023. Only 33.5% back it, with opposition strongest among older, rural, less-educated voters and supporters of PiS, Confederation, and Razem.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lxylrjtohc2p

      1. MXT

        Many have probably believed it because KWIA has decreased and Ukraine has made some isolated counterattacks and regained some ground. 

        I myself believe they are using more and more drones and do not need to use as many soldiers.

        Nearly 6,000 suicide drones per day is a large amount, even if only 10% actually hit the target, it is a lot.

  15. MXT

    Time to publicly declare war against Russia, we are already there.

    “733 times GPS disruptions have occurred in Swedish airspace during 2025, according to the Swedish Transport Agency. This is a significant increase as it only happened 55 times in 2023 and 495 times in 2024.

    The disruptions have been traced to Russian territory. Over Sweden, the disruptions initially occurred in the eastern parts of Swedish airspace over international waters.
    ”This is serious and poses a security risk to civil aviation, not least considering the extent, duration, and nature of the disruptions,” says Andreas Holmgren, unit manager at the Swedish Transport Agency, in a press release.”
    https://omni.se/okning-av-gps-storningar-sparas-till-ryssland/a/Ey7O6o

    1. CB500four

      Well, it’s probably time to start hunting those GPS transmitters. Tell them that if they are active after a certain date, they will be destroyed. Of course, this would result in a swarm of fighter jets over the Baltic Sea as the deadline approaches, but then we can shoot them down too if they cause any problems.

  16. MXT

    Sounds good, of course, if it weren’t for having heard about the same thing several times already without anything happening at all. Set for another TACO,

    “Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky will talk after Thursday’s summit in Paris about the future of Ukraine, and the message to Putin is clear, according to the American president to CNN.

    – He knows where I stand. Regardless of the decision he makes, we will either be satisfied or dissatisfied. And if we are dissatisfied, things will happen, he says.

    On Wednesday, Trump hinted at further pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine, which was one of his campaign promises.”
    https://omni.se/hintar-om-ny-press-pa-putin-saker-kommer-handa/a/LMwJwJ

  17. MXT

    One wonders, Trump must eventually realize that it is incredibly pathetic to make threats and set deadline after deadline without doing anything about it?

    Harmless operations like bombing Iran or sinking boats outside Venezuela go well, but he doesn’t seem to dare touch Russia at all. Besides appearing cowardly, he should also understand that suspicions of being controlled by Putin increase with each passing day.

    Biden was also cowardly, but he increased the stakes as time went on, Trump instead has backed down since taking office.

    Of course, we don’t know what Kamala would have done, but I am convinced that the support would have continued at least, and it is not impossible that it would have been expanded as Russia took more ground.

    If they had a majority in both the House and the Senate, they wouldn’t have needed to compromise and tie it together with support for Israel, or border controls, and they wouldn’t have risked being unlocked by someone like Mike.

    So far, Trump has only managed to mess things up for everyone, not just for Ukraine.
    Instead of cooperation to counteract Russia and China, he has made enemies with everyone, deteriorated the global economy, and now he has even led India to choose the wrong side.
    Just because he loves his tariffs.

    He has now paved the way for the power shift to the east. 
    Together, those three will probably be impossible to stop.

    Trump is simply a total disaster.

    1. 205

      To take on Venezuela, Iran, economically against India, on the other hand, does not support Russia. Regarding Venezuela and drug smuggling, it cannot be ruled out that the gangs there, like in Europe, are supported by Russian authorities (SVR?). 

      1. MXT

        It’s true, but when it comes to India, he should have realized that he can’t just go after one of the countries buying oil and think they won’t get upset.

        If he really wants to harm Russia (and not just see the opportunity to increase his tariffs), he should have also gone after China and other countries.

        That thing with Venezuela was mostly like an example of him daring to take a tough stance when it’s basically harmless. The USA is not dependent on them, they pose no military threat.

        I have no direct objections to him going after Venezuela (just hoping that the attacked boat was really loaded with drugs).

        It’s a rogue state.

        Then I wonder if it couldn’t have been handled differently (even long before Trump) a combination of carrot and stick. Not both.

        Now they will of course turn even more against Russia and China. Both countries are already there, Russia is helping them militarily, China with the economy.

        I’m afraid that in the long run, it will end up with China (and to some extent Russia where force works) eventually taking control of both South America and Africa.

    2. CB500four

      He is unable to think far enough ahead to see the consequences of his decisions. And he has surrounded himself with equally incompetent individuals, because he knows they will remain loyal since it is because of their loyalty they got the job, not their competence.

      Putin is his mentor, and he has such great respect for him, that he is terrified of doing him any harm.

      1. MXT

        They seem to have focused on Krym.

        It will be interesting to see if there were any higher-ranking officers present who were eliminated. Otherwise, it may not feel like a target worth wasting Flamingo on (unless they are experimenting).
        IF it was Flamingo, it feels like they should do more damage.

  23. MXT

    Risk of Georgia moving even further away from the EU and Europe as it soon becomes more difficult to travel.

    “Georgians Brace for Loss as EU Visa-Free Deadline Passes
    The EU’s deadline for GD authorities to report to Brussels on progress with key reform and human rights–related demands passed on August 31. The bloc has warned that failure to deliver progress could trigger suspension of visa-free travel for Georgians – a step that, unlike many EU sanctions, requires only a qualified majority of member states.

    On September 1, Georgian officials confirmed that they had sent their responses to the European Commission, which had, among other conditions, demanded that the government uphold human rights and repeal the controversial foreign agents and anti-LGBT laws.”
    https://civil.ge/archives/694719

  24. MXT

    “China’s President Xi Jinping and North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong-Un are set to meet for talks. This is reported by Beijing, according to AFP.

    According to a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China is ready to cooperate with North Korea to ‘strengthen strategic communication […] and deepen the exchange of governance experiences’.

    Kim traveled to China earlier this week to participate in Wednesday’s major military parade. It was the first time that Kim, Xi, and Putin appeared together publicly.”
    https://omni.se/xi-ska-ha-mote-med-kim-for-att-fordjupa-utbytet/a/OovG9w

  27. johan No.1

    China blew in significantly showed a lot of hardware – I have regularly googled Chinese rearmament over the past two years and nothing comes up.

    Since they have rearmed RU, it is reasonable to assume that they have rearmed themselves as well.

    They are probably ready for war much earlier than we think.

    1. 205

      Something about what preparations Taiwan is making? How well equipped is its own defense? Has it adopted drone warfare and has its own capacity for attacks on the opponent’s infrastructure (would be a disaster for China’s manufacturing industry – surely Covid-19 hit this hard?)

    2. MXT

      Maybe it’s like they are a wolf in sheep’s clothing. 

      Pretending to be peaceful and mostly engaging in investments in other countries to infiltrate, etc. which has led us to believe that they want stability and mostly think about money and trade.

  29. MXT

    Maybe I’m stupid, but I suspect they would be much more useful now, and not after the war is over? 🤔

    “❗️🇸🇪Sweden has announced its readiness to consider supplying modern JAS 39 Gripen E fighters to 🇺🇦Ukraine after the end of the war with 🇷🇺Russia.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lxz5gogudk2g
    https://breakingdefense.com/2025/09/swedish-defense-minister-talks-post-war-long-term-endeavor-to-get-ukraine-advanced-gripens/

     

  30. Rocky

    No MXT, you are not stupid. Gripen E NG to UA is not an issue at the moment. We don’t have any to send. Brazil has not received theirs, and the same applies to Sweden and other countries that have bought them.

    1. MXT

      In the 17th military support package announced on September 9, 2024, 2.3 billion was allocated for equipment sets for the JAS 39 C/D.

      From the presentation:

      “Equipment sets for JAS 39 C/D – create conditions to potentially support Ukraine with JAS 39 Gripen at a later stage”

      Admittedly, they write “at a later stage” and “potentially,” but I really hope they didn’t mean to send anything, sometime in the future when peace has already been achieved. That would be pure deception.

      Ukraine would probably have preferred to receive 2.3 billion directly to build drones. They can’t fight the Russians with promises to be fulfilled after the war.

      Or maybe you’re right, and the government had no clue, so we actually have no Gripens to spare, but if that’s the case, it’s just as bad when those making decisions don’t know what they’re doing.

      Or is it possible that they thought new ones would be delivered so we could send the old ones, but it hasn’t happened? So, is it SAAB who doesn’t know what they’re doing? Or one of their subcontractors?

      Well, well, regardless, one must continue to dream about the Gripen for Ukraine…

  31. Proxima

    No, far from stupid. First and foremost, it’s Gripen C that has been in the works to Ukraine. E will probably be built in Ukraine when the war is over, I would think.
    Why Gripen C is not sent to Ukraine seems secret. Some claim that the USA is holding back to not put F16 in a worse light. But could that be possible? Every air force would understand such a peculiar sales tactic. Even the Air Force in the Marshall Islands (if they have one) would have understood this.
    Some say that NATO is behind it. Among others, Norway has been mentioned. This is due to the F35. There were software issues. The F35 was not allowed to fly “live ammunition”.
    Two Norwegian F35s were on the ground at the air show in Ronneby last year but not active in the air. It could be that they don’t want to release Gripen because there always seems to be problems with the F35.

    1. MXT

      Ah, so maybe we need all the Gripen because the F35 risks being grounded if there is a crisis?

      That would be a logical explanation. It’s not certain if it was something the Swedish government or defense forces knew about just over a year ago when considering the support package.

  34. 205

    🧵1/10

    2 million workers gone: russia’s war economy slides toward collapse

    With 73% of businesses understaffed, defense plants are breaking under labor shortages and falling output.

    🧵2/10
    On paper, russia’s economy looks like a fortress: GDP rising, defense spending at record highs, oil billions still rolling in.

    No wonder many ask if sanctions have failed — or if Putin’s war economy is strong enough to sustain his war in Ukraine indefinitely.

    But a June 2025 report from CSIS — one of Washington’s most respected think tanks — warns that this fortress is hollow, and the cracks are already spreading.

    https://www.csis.org/analysis/russian-wartime-economy-sugar-high-hangover

    🧵3/10

    russia’s economy only shrank in 2022 but grew in 2023 and 2024. Why do experts say it’s collapsing?

    Russia’s “growth” is fake — a wartime sugar high before the crash.
    Yes, GDP fell 2.1% in 2022, then rebounded with 3.6% growth in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024. But that wasn’t real recovery — it was deficit spending on weapons that get blown up in Ukraine.

    Moscow poured a record 13.5 trillion rubles ($145B) — 6.3% of GDP — into its war machine in 2025. That kind of “military Keynesianism” doesn’t build prosperity; it just keeps factories busy cranking out tanks.

    Now the bill is coming due:

    • GDP growth slowed to just 1.4% in Q1 2025, with a 1.2% contraction after adjustment.

    • Inflation hit 10.2% in April.

    • The central bank is stuck at 21% interest rates to avoid collapse.

    • The budget deficit is swelling to 1.7% of GDP

    This is classic stagflation: fake war-driven growth hiding a shrinking economy and soaring prices.
    Putin can brag today — but russia is already sliding into crisis.

    🧵4/10

    How can russia have a labor shortage with 140 million people?

    russia is in a self-inflicted “labor famine.” Since February 2022, 1–2 million workers have vanished from its economy:

    • 600k–1M fled abroad to escape the war
    • 300k–500k conscripted in mobilization
    • 800k volunteered to fight in Ukraine
    • ~1M killed, wounded, or missing

    The result: 73% of businesses are understaffed, while defense plants poach workers with salaries 40,000 rubles ($500) above civilian jobs.

    The cracks are already visible:

    • March 2025: manufacturing suffered its worst slump in 3 years

    • April 2025: russia’s top business lobby warned of “zero growth”

    • Even Putin admitted in March 2025 that the fight against inflation was “strangling growth.”

    And it’s not just russia. Western companies that rely on russian suppliers are watching production shrink in real time — proof that the war is choking not only russia’s economy, but global supply chains too.

    🔍 Förstora bilden

    (Russian defense spending and unemployment. Source: CSIS)

    🧵5/10

    Why should I care about russian inflation when I don’t live in russia?

    Because russian inflation is already in your wallet — you just don’t see it yet.

    russia’s inflation hit 10.2% in April 2025, forcing interest rates up to 21%. That pain doesn’t stay inside russia.

    To dodge sanctions, russian firms burn $10–30 billion a year on shady commissions, and those costs get passed into the global price of
    • oil,
    • metals,
    • fertilizer, and
    • grain
    – the building blocks of everything from your phone to your food.

    Here’s the hidden link: disrupted supply chains and higher transport/insurance costs drive up commodity prices everywhere.

    russia makes critical inputs for semiconductors, aircraft parts, and agriculture.

    As russia’s costs spiral, global alternatives rise too.

    Their inflation becomes your higher grocery bill and gas price.

    🧵6/10

    Isn’t russia still making billions from oil sales? Doesn’t that make its economy invincible?

    russia’s oil revenues are collapsing in slow motion — and Putin’s war budget hangs on them more than he admits.

    Oil made up 42% of the budget in 2022, but by 2024 it was down to 30%
    — even with high global prices.

    Sanctions forced Moscow to sell crude at a 15% discount, with shipping to India adding $10–15 per barrel.

    Here’s the danger:

    russia’s 2025 budget assumed $69.7 oil, but forecasts are already down to $56.

    In April 2025, Trump’s tariff threats sent Urals crude below $50. Every $10 drop = $10–15B lost revenue.

    If oil hit $30 again — as during COVID — russia would lose as much money as it spends on the entire war…………

    Bottom line:

    Putin can brag about oil billions, but his lifeline is a knife-edge.

    One global shock, and the war chest collapses….

    🔍 Förstora bilden

    (Hydrocarbon share of Russia’s budget. Source: CSIS)

    🧵7/10

    If russia has China, why would Western pressure matter?

    China is keeping russia afloat — but that makes Moscow weaker, not stronger.

    In 2024, russia imported $115B in goods from China — 72% above pre-war levels.

    By 2023, 76% of battlefield-related deliveries came from China and Hong Kong.

    And now, 53% of all russian imports are Chinese — meaning Beijing could cripple russia’s war effort overnight by simply enforcing existing sanctions.

    Despite talk of “yuanization,” russia still can’t escape its need for dollars and euros.

    Meanwhile, China enjoys steep discounts on russian oil, gas, and raw materials.

    – This isn’t partnership — it’s economic colonization.

    Beijing gains leverage, Moscow loses sovereignty. And for the West, the pressure point is clear: make China choose between Putin and global markets, and russia’s lifeline snaps.

     

    🧵8/10

    I keep hearing russia’s banking system is stable. What’s the real risk?

    russia’s banking system looks stable — but it’s built on quicksand.

    Businesses owe $446B in loans, half to defense firms on subsidized rates of 5–6%, while everyone else pays 18–19%.

    At the same time, with interest rates at 21% and inflation near 9%, russian savers get 11% real returns just by parking money in banks — deposits jumped 70% in 2024.

    The entire system now depends on depositors’ trust. But here’s the trap:
    – nearly half of government debt is floating-rate.

    If the central bank raises rates, debt costs explode; if it cuts, inflation spirals.

    That’s the classic setup for a banking crisis — politically connected loans propped up by nervous savers.

    A shock — sanctions, a battlefield loss, or a ruble collapse — could spark a bank run and bring the system down in weeks.

    (Russia’s current account and inflation. Source: CSIS)

    🧵9/10

    How long before russia’s war economy cracks?

    Based on 2025 data, russia can probably grind along for another 2–3 years under current sanctions — but only if nothing goes wrong.

    What could speed up collapse:

    • Oil < $50/barrel: Already happened in April 2025, hitting budget revenues immediately

    • Stricter sanctions enforcement: Especially on China’s dual-use exports to russia

    • Global recession: Trump’s tariff threats already rattled commodity markets this spring

    • Banking crisis: 21% interest rates keep savers in banks — until confidence cracks

    russia’s National Welfare Fund — the rainy-day reserve — dropped 24% in early 2025 to just ₽3.39T ($39B).

    At current burn rates, that cushion won’t last long;
    – even the central bank has warned it could be emptied if oil collapses.

    And remember: russia is running its economy on war spending — defense outlays at 6%+ of GDP — the highest since the Cold War.

    That means Moscow’s “growth” depends on pouring money into weapons that get destroyed in Ukraine, not building lasting prosperity.

    Bottom line:- The system works — until it doesn’t. History says russia might stagger on for 2–5 years, but unlike the USSR, today’s russia can’t wall itself off.

    Global markets, sanctions, and war costs make it vulnerable to shocks that could accelerate the crash overnight.

    For Ukraine and the West: – the pressure is working.

    But it’s a test of stamina — keep it up, and Putin’s war economy will eventually break…..

    🧵10/10

    What this means for you

    russia’s collapse isn’t guaranteed — but the odds are rising.
    • Labor shortages,
    • runaway inflation,
    • oil dependency,
    and
    • record war spending are the same pressures that have broken other wartime economies.

    • Investors: steer clear of russian commodities and watch for ripple effects in global supply chains.

    • Policymakers: sanctions are working, but only if pressure is steady and sustained — collapse takes years, not months.

    • Everyone else: russia is more dangerous now, but less sustainable long term. The next 2–3 years will decide whether Putin’s war economy holds — or breaks.

    https://x.com/anno1540/status/1963483111590662653?s=46

    1. MXT

      Really good overview of the situation for Russia. 👍

      I believe it will eventually come down to how much China can afford to support. They are probably not willing to give away a lot of money, and there is surely a limit to when they feel they don’t want to lend more, as the risk is high that they won’t get paid within a reasonable time.

      What remains then is for Putin to hand over the right to exploit natural resources, sell mines and industries, etc.

      We have already heard a little in that direction where China is involved in the occupied areas.

      China has also invested some in the extraction of minerals such as Lithium and other materials needed for battery production.

    2. DJ

      However, Russia’s goal is not to build prosperity but to fight for more territory, even if it means grinding it down with artillery. So that must be taken into consideration. Just like, for example, Mugabe could retain power for a long time in Zimbabwe regardless of the country’s economy – his goal was to hold on to power and he succeeded without prosperity in the country. Russia’s need is to be able to produce soldiers and build weapons. I’m afraid they can do it for longer than 2-3 years if the West hesitates with the destruction of Russian industry, infrastructure, and oil production.

      1. MXT

        Good point, then it’s enough that Putin and the most important siloviks can live well.

        It’s a bit the same in Venezuela, the country could be rich for everyone, but it’s enough that a few at the top with violent capital can feast.

  35. ANDERS RYDEN

    A few thoughts that you are welcome to help me with.

    First of all, I believe that Trump, MAGA, and large parts of the US population will be preoccupied with the Epstein scandal. From there, there won’t be much more support than Europe buying weapons for Ukraine. So, we can probably continue to count Trump out in the future.

    But now I come to what I think is important. Looking at what the UAF has focused on is disrupting the logistics for the Russians. Winter is approaching soon. How fun can it be for “Russians in holes” to first walk 2.5 miles in the winter to reach the front line? Once in the hole, they cannot leave any heat signature if they want to survive drone attacks from drones with IR cameras.

    Ukraine has also focused on disrupting transports to the front line. Partly by targeting railway junctions and the refinery. Trains transporting fuel are high-priority targets for the UAF as well. So, there probably won’t be much further supply of food and ammunition to the Russians in the holes.

    Ukraine has now also started to target oil pipelines. Every time it happens, the Russians have to shut off the oil and try to repair the pipelines. When the pipelines are shut off for too long in the cold, the oil solidifies. Then it’s game over, especially for the slightly heavier Urals oil. How fun can it be for a Russian in a hole to hear that their family back home is freezing because the oil pipelines have frozen?

    Then we have another thing to think about. It’s namely the case that when it comes to most advanced infrastructure, the Russians have simply bought Western technologies and expertise. So, the help and expertise they would need to repair the now recurring bombings, mainly on the refineries, they simply don’t have. How fun can it be for a Russian in a hole when they hear that their wife can’t drive the car they bought with the recruitment bonus because the gasoline has run out? And that the kids now have to walk to school because the buses have also stopped running. I don’t know what other targets the UAF has on their wishlist for the Flamingo cruise missile. But one thing is certain, if there are lots of flamingos flying over Russia during the winter, it can’t be good for Putin and Russia.

    1. DJ

      Hasn’t there been very little raff that has been bombed in the last few days? Did Ukraine get a red card again?

      You have a good point, but it also applied to 2023 and 2024, yet the Russians managed to increase during 2025. And much of what you write applies conversely to Ukraine as well, unfortunately, with freezing soldiers, drones everywhere, and broken infrastructure.

    2. MXT

      You are right in much of what you write and Ukraine has a great advantage with shorter logistics routes. If they can continue as they did earlier in August, it will be tough for the Russians, the question is how big of an impact it will have. But they are surely starting to get tired at this point.

      Unfortunately, they are using a huge number of drones, and that is the major cause for concern.

      If they can continue to increase the pace and also extend the range (they struck 40km from the front today in Zaporizhzhia), it will not only be a major threat to the Ukrainian soldiers but also to Ukrainian logistics.

      However, the window for larger offensives is starting to close, and they probably want to advance as far as possible before winter just as you write.

      There is talk of large troop build-ups, so they are probably aiming to make a breakthrough and reach places like Pokrovsk. Even if only ruins remain, it is probably more comfortable to winter there than in the trenches. Perhaps they are also hoping for an even bigger breakthrough. Kupiansk is also a city that is starting to be in a precarious position.

      Johan wrote almost a year ago that the autumn until New Year would be crucial for Ukraine if Europe did not step forward. We did not, but Ukraine made it through that winter and is still fighting on. Despite that, I now feel a bit like Johan did. I believe the autumn could be decisive, maybe not decisive in terms of the war, but whether Ukraine can halt the Russians or if they lose significantly larger parts of the country than they have in the past year.

  36. MXT

    Can one guess that it’s hackers employed by Russia and all payments are made with cryptocurrencies?

    “A new spyware can take pictures of computer users while they watch porn, reports Wired. The program registers when porn sites are visited and then takes a screenshot of the web browser and an image via the computer’s webcam. The images are sent to the hacker, who can use them for extortion.”

    https://omni.se/a/JbzKk7

  37. MXT

    Good, and as I have written before, this also mentally brings us one step closer to even sending soldiers before peace has been achieved.

    “26 countries in Europe are ready to send soldiers to Ukraine to provide the country with security guarantees after a potential ceasefire agreement has been reached with Russia. This is according to French President Emmanuel Macron after the so-called coalition of the willing gathered in Paris on Thursday, as reported by several media outlets. The countries also agreed that the economic pressure on Russia should increase. – If Russia continues to reject peace talks, new sanctions will be imposed together with the USA, he says.”

    https://omni.se/a/zAnWa9

    1. johan No.1

      If you see the catch – “after an agreement has been reached with Russia on a ceasefire”, they have a veto.

      Russia really doesn’t want this, they prefer to keep fighting.

  38. MXT

    Good that he faces some resistance, even though it probably won’t go through if it ends up in the Supreme Court.

    “Washington DC sues President Donald Trump for the decision to deploy the National Guard in the city, as reported by American media. ‘The forced military occupation of the District of Columbia violates our local self-government and our fundamental freedoms. It must cease,’ writes the city’s prosecutor Brian Schwalb in a thread on X.”

    https://omni.se/a/qP0KWO

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