57 thoughts on “The war in Ukraine 2025-10-16”

  2. 205

    As reported by AFU, 184 battles were distributed with 163 as below. A total that is largely unchanged. But clearly decreasing to a noticeable pressure in the north. Also decreasing in Luhansk, with only a noticeable pressure. The increase was found in the pressure cooker Donetsk and in the south where the pressure reached a noticeable level. 

    • North
      • N Slobozhansky 0↘️
      • S Slobozhansky 17💥
    • Luhansk:

      • Kupyansk 6↘️
      • Lyman 7↘️
      • Slovyansk 10💥↗️
    • Donetsk:

      • Kramatorsk 1
      • Kostjantynivka 21💥↗️
      • Pokrovsk 56💥💥💥↘️
      • Oleksandrivskij 30💥💥↗️
    • South:

      • Huliaypillia 0
      • Orikhivsk 5
      • Prydniprovskij 4↗️
  3. DJ

    Half off-topic. If there were to be a global war, what practical measures should one take? Which supply chains will be disrupted – what should one stock up on?

    1. MXT

      There is a lot written about prepping, I think it’s a good start for any crisis.

      A good start is probably to read some books about prepping to get advice and tips and at the same time form your own comprehensive opinion. It’s quite individual depending on whether you live in a house in the countryside (with your own well, fireplace maybe crops, etc.) or if you are in an apartment in the middle of the city.

      A bit much to go into here but of course, it’s food, water, possibly medication, backup, etc. but the most important thing is probably mainly to prepare mentally for the situation and to be resourceful (knowledge and creativity are very valuable in a crisis situation).

      If we end up in a real war, I believe the electricity supply will be particularly hard hit. *)
      It’s important to secure possibilities for cooking and warmth and of course also fuel for transportation if you have to move longer distances.

      *) Off-topic – Here it is of course extra sensitive that we are so dependent on hydropower from the north. Some strategically placed SMRs would be very valuable.

      1. DJ

        Hm yes, water bottles and canned food of course. But there are also other things I have been thinking about, such as Apple products which are mainly manufactured in China. The prices of a macbook might skyrocket if China is sanctioned or faces a naval blockade? Perhaps it’s best to shop for some items that you know you will need in the coming year? Basically, everything you know you need to buy that – like it or not – is manufactured in China.

  4. 205

    Evacuation zone expanded in Kharkiv Oblast as Russian forces advance near Kupiansk. In total, 601 children from 409 families are to be relocated to safer areas. https://kyivindependent.com/evacuation-zone-expanded-in-kharkiv-oblast-as-russian-forces-advance-near-kupiansk/

    On Oct. 15, the military monitoring group DeepState reported that Russian forces had captured the village of Myrne in Kupiansk district and were advancing toward the nearby village of Ivanivka.

    Kupiansk itself has become a focal point of Russia’s renewed offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. Since Sept. 28, it has been closed to civilians due to ongoing combat operations and the threat of Russian sabotage groups.

    “Over the past few weeks, the situation has worsened. The enemy has begun clearing operations, and our positions have gradually been lost. Some were simply destroyed by artillery and drones,” DeepState wrote on Oct. 14.

     

     

     

  7. 205

    🇸🇪 🇩🇰 Denmark allocates over $170 million for Ukraine’s military support; Sweden weighs new aircraft supply

    Last updated 8:12 p.m. Kyiv time.

    Denmark has pledged $171 million in military aid to Ukraine, while Sweden is considering the delivery of additional aircraft.

    The $171 million aid will be used to support Ukraine’s navy, repair tanks, and provide education and training for Ukrainian military personnel, according to a statement from the Danish Defense Ministry published on Oct. 15.

    The package also includes initiatives targeting the maritime sector and armored vehicle maintenance. Funds are also allocated for fuel donations and support within rehabilitation zones, both implemented under NATO’s auspices.

    Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson, speaking ahead of the NATO defense ministers’ meeting in Brussels on Oct. 15, said Sweden is prepared to expand its support through the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative and the aviation coalition.

    According to Jonson, Stockholm aims to supply radar reconnaissance and early warning aircraft to Ukraine as an initial step, and will later consider the potential delivery of Swedish Gripen fighter jets.

    https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-update-2025-10-15/

      1. Proxima

        It’s probably a “standard response.” You won’t, for example, announce that the Gripen is being sent to Ukraine in a press conference. It will be there when it’s there.

        1. Peter Den Större

          So one will absolutely manage the communication, but I wondered about the decision itself and what kind of unknown natural forces are holding us back.

          1. Proxima

            I believe that the Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense said a little too much in an interview with English media. Among other things, that the Gripen C is to be sent to Ukraine. Kristersson and Johnsson have tried in various ways to brush it off by saying that it concerns the Gripen E after the war. Reading between the lines, one understands that it concerns the C and that is probably close. It might already be there.

      2. N Eklund

        The first Gripen E will be delivered on Monday, October 20, 2025. It may be that they are waiting for payment before they are willing to send off the Gripens?

  8. 205

    India is still an unwritten card. A joker🃏? In that case, a significant one.

    🇮🇳 India assures White House it will stop buying Russian oil, Trump says. “There will be no oil, (Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is) not buying his oil from Russia, it started — you know, you can’t do it immediately, it’s a little bit of a process, but the process is going to be over with soon,” U.S. President Donald Trump said.

    https://kyivindependent.com/india-assures-white-house-it-will-stop-buying-russian-oil-trump-says

    1. Peter Den Större

      India continues to walk a tightrope and invests in both red and black. I wonder what their role in the Brics world would look like if it came to a head. But does Putin have any oil to sell to them? The shadow fleet continues while the Russians are out of gasoline.

  11. jahojariaho

    Response to/from yesterday’s thread!
    205
    2025-10-15 at 20:13:00
    “… harder for democracies to make quick, coordinated decisions, which in itself is a goal for actors who want to weaken Western cohesion.”
    There is a reason to review the EU constitution and the element of supranationality. Perhaps it should not be overestimated, though; we also see in the USA that different states can pull in different directions than what the federal administration has set as a goal. However, one can assume that the USA, as a federation, has a completely different preparedness for attempts by foreign powers to divide and manipulate the nation (the United States).

    My comment!
    Yes, that’s where the core lies. Democracies build their strength on deliberation, on testing and weighing rather than obeying. It makes us slower in peacetime but more resilient in the long run. We also have long-term financial/innovative advantages as described by the Nobel Prize in Economics 2024!
    The problem is that authoritarian regimes have learned to exploit the temporary sluggishness as a weapon.

    I share your thought that the institutional design of the EU should be reviewed, not to blindly centralize power, but to create the ability for a rapid collective response without sacrificing the principles of the rule of law. The US federation has, as you mention, a longer institutional heritage of crisis preparedness and internal security coordination. The EU still lacks that nervous system. Otherwise, one can prepare for quick decisions! Create different scenarios (which I believe are done by the military, but it is the politicians who are slow).

    The question is therefore not how much power the EU should have, but what kind of decision-making capacity democracies need in a time when hybrid warfare and disinformation are directed at our slowness.

    As my father-in-law Aulis Aarnio used to point out: the strength of the rule of law lies not in speed, but in predictability. There, I have added a third dimension that is NOT just resilience but I want to call it adaptability; we want to become better under pressure and to defend that predictability against forces deliberately creating chaos.

    1. 205

      “The USA’s federation has, as you mention, a longer institutional heritage of crisis preparedness and internal security coordination. The EU still lacks that nervous system. Otherwise, one can prepare for quick decisions! Create different scenarios (which I believe is done by the military, but it’s the politicians who are slow)”

      First of all, thank you for a thoughtful response. Yes, perhaps the solution lies in the scenario. Exercises have been conducted at various levels within the Swedish government agencies under the framework of MSB.

      One could compare it to Corona (which I have understood you have been involved in through X). There was a heated discussion about voluntariness and “recommendations”. Not war, but consider another virus: Ebola, which gained a foothold. Would the response have been based on voluntariness? And now war. In that case, it is primarily the military that takes over many decisions, and it’s hardly about “recommendations” that the population has to adhere to.

      But before Ebola/war, there is a gap where the scenario could be a tool. At the same time, a scenario must not only be an exercise but also a basis for decision-making and a sharp response in a critical situation. Perhaps only the military has reached that point.

      And this is in Sweden. At the EU level, it may look different.

  18. MXT

    Good that there is also a shortage of diesel, let’s see if it spreads or if it stays in Crimea.

    “⛽️Many gas stations in Crimea are out of diesel fuel This situation has been ongoing for several days, we reported on it earlier.

    While the Russian authorities were struggling for gasoline, diesel fuel disappeared somewhere. In some places, diesel is sold by coupons, and in others, only Ultra diesel is available. One might wonder, what does the burning oil depot in Feodosia have to do with this?🤔”

    https://bsky.app/profile/beefeaterfella.bsky.social/post/3m3ckcipdns2m

    1. MXT

      Thank you!

      That’s what happens when you’re lazy and think about copying from what you already posted in the morning, but don’t realize that the page you’re copying from is another day old.. 🫠

      By the way, it’s nice to see that there is at least one person reading the defeat report! 👍✊

  22. johan No.1

    Addition to the recent days’ discussion on how we could organize ourselves better – the tips are many and good.

    I like to write and have a full-time job, MXT likes IT and has a full-time job, and we have maximized what we can, kind of.

    Are there any here with the ability to spread the word – jump in.

     

    1. johan No.1

      I abandoned X for the most part because everyone said that’s what you should do, and have Bluesky – don’t know how reach works there but post the entries there.

      On Substack, I’m apparently number 17 in “world politics” and that’s because the algorithms boost me a bit and quite a few people read from the platform – that’s why I use English there and double-post the entries.

      Previously submitted long letters to the editor that were published a little and asked if you can write editorials and other things in different newspapers – usually it fades out or spins around and then fades out.

      Thinking of trying with some other publications now that more have come.

      The original idea with the thread was that it would be lively, which we haven’t really succeeded with even though it’s read by some, the more people who comment, the more fun. On Substack and Bluesky, I always advertise the thread as well.

      Now most people reading here probably understand that we won’t run out of topics to write about – we’re heading towards global conflict and will make stops at turning off the light, little green men, and stock market crash.

      1. alfaomega

        Probably, most people do like me, i.e. read mostly and hardly ever comment on anything, and then you don’t contribute to any increased flow directly. The reason for that in my case is that everyone already has so many smart comments that it’s silly to just write + or agree…
        Looking at the other blog C, it also hasn’t had many comments for some time now, a couple of people make many posts, but the others not at all like it was before you left, for example. And many who no longer write there.
        Here “with us,” it seems that the few who write are more in agreement and not so questioning, and neither is there anyone asking things that “everyone” knows nowadays.
        And then the conclusion must be that the discussions are not so lively.
        Then one can miss DG… a little friendly bickering is always fun.

      2. 205

        If you can’t write in Swedish and publish here, let someone else (including AI) translate to English and publish there, so the English version can be behind a paywall / locked but not the Swedish one. Reasoning: 1) with the narrow focus of the blog, ultimately having English (but not Swedish) content provides an opportunity to eventually build a sufficient subscriber base to cover costs and generate profitability. Posts written in Swedish can have their own business model, based on anything from free content, subscriptions, sponsorships, and/or advertising. Subscribers paying for the English content on Substack will have access to the English version here behind the same paywall, including the comment section, shared with readers of the Swedish version. It should work if the translation is good. And readers on Substack are encouraged to comment on this site. (i.e., discouraged from commenting on Substack). 1) Swedish text -> johanno1.se 2) Translation of Swedish text -> Substack and paywall johanno1.se 3) To comment, Substack subscribers log in to johanno1.se to verify their Substack subscription before being allowed through the paywall to johanno1/English. Then, Johanno1 can serve as an archive. Thus, remove the archive from Substack, which doesn’t drive sales anyway, and for the same reason, remove comments on Substack, which are a nice-to-have but not sales-driven. Result: two different sites with the Swedish version (and most readable) on johanno1 and the English version behind paywalls on both Substack and johanno1. And a shared comment section on johanno1.

    2. CB500four

      Well, it’s always scary when those two are going to talk, usually nothing good comes out of these meetings. 

      Since the meeting will now also take place in Hungary, it could be even worse than usual. Orban will butter up his favorites, and lament how stupid the EU and Ukraine are.

      Even a somewhat mentally stable head of state would not come out of that meeting and still have an equally realistic worldview. Putin and Orban will together trick Trump up the tree again, and Putin will get another two long weeks, Ukraine will not get any Tomahawk missiles, and the EU (Except Hungary) will get scolded and higher tariffs. 

  24. 205

    NATO’s newest member Sweden is launching its first national food stockpile since the Cold War to build grain reserves amid rising tensions with Russia.

    https://www.newsweek.com/european-nation-to-start-stockpiling-food-10888179

    The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) has published a list of recommended foods that are high in fat and protein, and easy to store such as dried meat or fish, jam, chocolate, mashed potatoes, powdered milk and biscuits.

    The policy comes as fears grow that Moscow is testing the West with drone incursions that have been reported in Poland, Germany, Denmark and Norway.Last month Estonia invoked NATO’s Article 4 after it said Russian aircraft entered its airspace.

    Oskar Qvarfort, emergency planning officer at the Swedish Food Agency told the AFP earlier this month: “In a war scenario, people will be more physically active than under normal circumstances.“

    1. Norrsken

      That was probably what one thought about sugar factories once upon a time. Cheap carbohydrates with long shelf life and easy to distribute.

        1. Norrsken

          Yes, we can’t have any fatties running around in times of war. Hegseth would go crazy, as we are now NATO members. However, we need to stock up on makeup for men. Or is camo color enough.

  26. N Eklund

    Poland has detained a person whom Germany suspects was involved in the bombing of Nord Stream, but now they refuse to extradite the person as they do not believe it is in Poland’s interest.

    https://tvpworld.com/89342204/tusk-handing-nord-stream-suspect-to-germany-not-in-polands-interest

     

    Focus:

    “If Germany prosecutes a person based in Poland who destroyed the Russian war machine’s source of income, we see a clear contradiction between Poland’s and Germany’s interests, especially in terms of how we perceive reality after 2022,” said Sławomir Cenckiewicz, who heads Poland’s national security agency and is a close advisor to President Karol Nawrocki, to Financial Times. He also explained that the German investigation does not benefit Poland or NATO but only German justice and “Russian injustice.”

    https://www.fokus.se/sticket/polen-pa-tvaren-lamnar-inte-ut-sabotor/

     

    I can agree with Poland, if it is a Ukrainian, Ukraine should be allowed to strike against Russian financing of the war even on international waters (even though I am not familiar with laws and regulations). The problem, I suppose, according to Germany, is that they also own parts of Nord Stream.

  28. 205

    “The best way to get back at Putin is to praise Zelenskyy — that’s how Trump sees it,”

    “We are working so that the day of peace comes for Ukraine as well. Russian aggression remains the last global source of destabilization, and if a ceasefire and peace have been achieved for the Middle East, the leadership and determination of global actors can work for us, too,”

    “Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against the United States of America,”

    “We have great respect for the fight that Ukraine is putting up, It’s pretty amazing, actually.”

    🧵✍️ Lew Anno Support
    Ukraine likes its latest ally — Trump
    https://x.com/anno1540/status/1978871180573512141?s=46

     

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