The war in Ukraine 2028-08-28

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Ukraine’s attacks on the Russian oil refineries continued last night. According to the reports that have come out, two of them have been targeted. The Kuybyshevsk Refinery (initial reports indicated they would have attacked Novokuybyshevsk again, but it doesn’t seem to be the case), and the Afipsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar. Fuel prices have already risen, and there have also been reports of shortages and queues. It is mainly in the more remote regions that they are careful to ensure Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other major cities receive their fuel. Of course, they do not want them to notice the problems and start protests, so it is mainly the poorer part of the population that is affected.

The Kuybyshevsk Refinery has an annual maximum capacity of about 7 million tons per year (at the same time, there is information that they have only processed 3.7 some years).
The Afipsky Oil Refinery has an annual maximum capacity of about 6.25 million tons per year (at the same time, there is information that it processed 7 million tons in 2023).

Russian losses in Ukraine:

  • 880 KWIA
  • 4 Tanks
  • 7 AFVs
  • 40 Artillery systems
  • 2 MLRS
  • 325 UAVs
  • 120 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
  • 2 Special equipment

SLAVA UKRAINI

Russia’s military budget continues to increase

For quite some time, the attitude was that Russia had no chance against Ukraine because they have such a small economy compared to Europe. Their GDP is only about the same size as the Nordic countries.

I wrote (on another site) that while this is true, Russia invested significantly more than the 2-3% that we spent on defense. Additionally, even though we spend more on defense overall in Europe, it also matters how much of that actually goes to Ukraine. I then calculated that perhaps around 10% reaches Ukraine and concluded that Russia has a significantly larger military budget than that. So, it doesn’t matter so much that Europe has a much larger economy; it ultimately comes down to what one can, and is willing to, provide to Ukraine. I warned then that things didn’t look so bright for Ukraine. I didn’t get much support. Russia didn’t stand a chance.

This was early, before I found any statistics on how much support Ukraine receives each year. Now there are figures on what we actually give.
According to the Ukraine Support Tracker, Ukraine has received and been promised support totaling 596 billion USD so far, but looking at what has actually been delivered, they value it at 360 billion USD. This includes both military and humanitarian aid. So, it’s about 102 billion USD per year.

There are now reports that Russia is spending around 1 trillion per year.
https://omni.se/ryska-krigsbudgeten-fem-miljarder-kronor-per-dag/a/GykeXJ

This should probably be taken with a grain of salt, and of course, not all of it goes directly to the war in Ukraine, but if we estimate low, 500 billion USD, that is 5 times more than what we support Ukraine with despite Europe’s GDP being more than 5 times higher than Russia’s!

An argument often put forward is that the West maintains a much higher technical quality with better precision, etc. This is certainly true for traditional equipment, but today drones have become dominant, and that development has exploded during the war, where Russia (with the help of China and Iran with Shahed) has been far ahead and is now producing larger volumes.

The West had the chance to provide Ukraine with what was needed to win as early as the fall of 2022 but chose not to do so.

Now they have allowed Russia to develop its industry and acquire allies to help them. Their economy is suffering greatly, but it is still far from affecting their military efforts.

Europe must do much more!

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51 thoughts on “The war in Ukraine 2028-08-28”

  2. MXT

    NOTE! It is the Kuybyshevsk Refinery and not Novokuybyshevsk. See the last post for a map:

    “🔥🛢️/1. Tonight there is a very large attack on the Russian Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery with a capacity of 7.9 million tons per year, Samara region of Russia. According to eyewitnesses, at least dozens of drones hit the refinery. The entire territory is shrouded in smoke and fire after the attack.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3lxgm5vwhtk22

    “/2. Russian witnesses report at least 17 drone strikes at Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3lxgmdwxgwc22

    “/3. Moment of drone strikes on refinery”
    https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3lxgmstcl7222

    “/4. More videos of the intense fire on the territory of the refinery.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3lxgn373r2s22

    “/5. Some Russian air defense can be seen trying to repel a drone attack on an oil refinery that is already completely engulfed in flames.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3lxgn7yjifc22

    “/6. ‼️Important update. Kuybyshevsk Refinery, not Novokuybyshevsk Refinery, was subjected to a massive drone attack tonight. Both refineries are located literally across the street from each other, which is where the inaccuracy came from. Kuybyshevsk Refinery has a capacity of 7 million tons per year”
    https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3lxgoi4rzb223

    1. 205

      Right now in Kyiv, first responders are clearing the rubble of an ordinary residential building after a Russian strike. Another massive attack against our cities and communities. Killings again. Tragically, at least 8 people have already been confirmed dead. One of them is a child. My condolences to all their families and loved ones.

      People may still be trapped under the rubble. Dozens are wounded. These Russian missiles and attack drones today are a clear response to everyone in the world who, for weeks and months, has been calling for a ceasefire and for real diplomacy. Russia chooses ballistics instead of the negotiating table. It chooses to continue killing instead of ending the war. And this means that Russia still does not fear the consequences. Russia still takes advantage of the fact that at least part of the world turns a blind eye to murdered children and seeks excuses for Putin.

      We expect a reaction from China to what is going on. China has repeatedly called for not expanding the war and for a ceasefire. Yet this is not happening because of Russia. We expect a reaction from Hungary. The death of children should definitely stir far greater emotions than anything else. We expect a response from everyone in the world who has called for peace but now more often stays silent rather than taking principled positions.

      And it is definitely time for new, tough sanctions against Russia for everything it is doing. All deadlines have already been broken, dozens of opportunities for diplomacy ruined. Russia must feel accountable for every strike, for every day of this war. Eternal memory to all victims of Russia!

  5. MXT

    Reported on it already yesterday evening, but in case anyone missed it, things were lively on Crimea yesterday. Unfortunately, I haven’t seen any more reports, we’ll see if more information comes up later.

    “Explosions over Simferopol, occupied Crimea. Meanwhile, UAV danger has expanded to the Voronezh, Saratov and Volgograd regions.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lxfwm7ed3s2h

    “Russian air defense is actively searching for targets over occupied Sevastopol tonight. Eyewitnesses also report a missile or aircraft flying over Krasnoperekopsk. Multiple areas across Crimea are seeing heavy activity—this is not a routine night.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lxfvm4ime22h

  9. 205

    Downwards, downwards, downwards. But not on the fronts that “count”.

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 9💥↘️
    S Slobozhansky 5
    Kupyansk 6
    Lyman 20💥↘️
    Siverskyi 3↘️
    Kramatorsk 0↘️
    Toretsk 9💥
    Pokrovsk 41💥💥
    Novopavlivka 21💥
    Huliaypillia 0
    Orikhivsk 0
    Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 0

    • N Slobozhansky-Kursk 9💥↘️
    • Lyman 20💥↘️
    • Toretsk 9💥
    • Pokrovsk 41💥💥
    • Novopavlivka 21💥
    2. 205

      The frontlines that “count”: Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka. From July 1.

      One can almost sense an allocated budget of resources per segment that has not changed much in the last two months. As well as an ordering process that is in line with this prioritization.

       

  10. MXT

    “Many of the world’s authoritarian leaders will appear when China hosts a large military parade next week. Of the 26 heads of state or government, Kim Jong-Un (North Korea), Vladimir Putin (Russia), Aleksandr Lukashenko (Belarus), and Masoud Pezeshkian (Iran) are seen.

    The only EU leader expected to show up is Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has spoken highly of Putin and been a vocal critic of EU’s support for Ukraine. From a European perspective, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic will also participate.”
    https://omni.se/kinas-militarovning-lockar-kim-putin-och-lukasjenko/a/nydO9B

    1. Peter Den Större

      That Serbia has shown itself to belong to another darker world we already knew, but that even Slovakia’s Fico openly shows himself on the wrong side like this surprised me at least.

  11. 205

    Across occupied Ukraine, Russia has caused a devastating water crisis it cannot fix

    All across the Russian-occupied Ukrainian land, Moscow is struggling to provide one of the most basic needs of the very people it claims to have “liberated” — water.

    — Kyiv Independent

  12. 205

    ⚡ 589 ENEMY TARGETS DESTROYED/SUPPRESSED

    On the night of August 28 (starting at 7:30 p.m. on August 27), the enemy launched a massive strike on the territory of Ukraine using strike UAVs, air- and ground-based missiles, for a total of 629 air attack weapons:

    – 598 Shahed-type strike UAVs and various types of dummy drones from the directions of Kursk, Bryansk, Millerovo, Orel, Shatalovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk – Russian Federation, Gvardeyskoye – TOT Crimea;
    – 2 Kh-47M2 “Kinzhal” aeroballistic missiles from the airspace of the Lipetsk and Voronezh regions – Russian Federation;
    – 9 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from the Bryansk and Voronezh regions – Russian Federation;
    – 20 Kh-101 cruise missiles from the airspace of the Saratov region – Russian Federation.

    The air attack was repelled by aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces, electronic warfare and unmanned systems units, and mobile fire groups of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

    💥 According to preliminary data, as of 09:00, air defense forces shot down/suppressed 589 air targets:

    – 563 enemy Shahed-type UAVs and various types of drone simulators;
    – 1 Kh-47M2 “Kinzhal” aeroballistic missile;
    – 7 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles;
    – 18 Kh-101 cruise missiles.

    Missile and strike UAV hits were recorded at 13 locations, with debris falling at 26 locations.

  13. 205

    ⚡️Important targets of Russian occupiers hit

    On the night of August 28, 2025, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces struck a number of important targets belonging to the Russian aggressor.

    ⚡️In particular, units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Unmanned Systems Forces and the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense attacked the Afipsky Oil Refinery in the Krasnodar Krai of the Russian Federation. This oil refinery, whose main products are gasoline and diesel fuel, is involved in supplying the invading army. Its annual processing capacity is 6.25 million tons of oil per year.

    A large-scale fire was recorded on the territory of the facility.

    ⚡️In addition, units of the Unmanned Systems Forces and Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out a fire strike on the Kuibyshev Oil Refinery in the Samara region of the Russian Federation. The enterprise produces gasoline, diesel fuel, fuel oil, solvents, and a total of more than 30 types of petroleum products. Its processing capacity is 7 million tons of oil per year. Explosions and a fire were recorded on the territory of the plant.

    ⚡️In addition, the Unmanned Systems Forces, Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the Security Service of Ukraine, in cooperation with other components of the Defense Forces, struck ammunition depots and a number of logistics facilities of the Russian aggressor involved in supplying the armed forces of the Russian invaders. The facilities are located both directly in the Russian Federation and in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.

    Detailed information on the consequences of the strikes is being clarified.

    The Defense Forces continue to take all measures to undermine the military and economic potential of the Russian occupiers, to ensure the supply of fuel, lubricants, and ammunition to the invading army, and to force the Russian Federation to stop its armed aggression against Ukraine.

    To be continued… Glory to Ukraine!🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

    https://www.facebook.com/share/p/16rLpyempC/

  15. MXT

    Regarding my addition in today’s post about Russia’s military budget.
    All but one of Europe’s countries now reach 2%.

    After 3.5 years of war.

    Obviously, they are not taking it seriously and not doing everything they can for Ukraine.

    “This year, all NATO countries meet the alliance’s two percent goal, NATO said on Thursday, according to AFP. The only exception is Iceland, which does not have its own military defense.

    That 31 out of 32 countries meet the stated goal is a major step forward compared to 2024, when only 18 countries allocated 2 percent of GDP to defense. The American news magazine Newsweek describes it as a major victory for Donald Trump, who has long been a driving force on the issue.
    At the same time, NATO approved a new five percent goal during the summer, and many countries still have a long way to go.”
    https://omni.se/alla-medlemslander-klarar-natos-tvaprocentsmal-i-ar/a/Gykndm

    1. T23

      -“What? Is the roof on fire?! But I just sat down so comfortably on the couch, I don’t want to get up and go out. The flammable material will probably run out soon (crew and equipment). Or maybe the fire will soon run out of oxygen (the economy). Besides, I trust that the fire department (USA) will come and rescue me soon. I don’t want to have gotten up from the couch for no reason, I better stay put a little longer”

  16. MXT

    “Moscow has a ”negative attitude” towards European soldiers acting as peacekeeping forces in Ukraine and as a security guarantee after the war, says Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. The Kremlin particularly dislikes that several of the countries are part of NATO, writes Politico.

    The statement contradicts Donald Trump’s claim that Russia would accept such an arrangement. Trump claimed that he had specifically asked Vladimir Putin about this with the addition that the Russian president had no objections.

    But the new statement from the Kremlin casts doubt on whether European security guarantees are possible at all, writes the political site.”
    https://omni.se/kreml-gar-emot-trump-inte-okej-med-europeiska-styrkor/a/RzLlBW

  17. MXT

    USA

    Covid was serious, but still had relatively low mortality. Sooner or later, some other variant will emerge. Without vaccines, the USA is likely to struggle.

    Really hope that we don’t fall behind here in Europe, but considering how persistently vaccine opponents continue to spread nonsense, of course, there is a risk. 

    “The head of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Susan Monarez, has been fired, according to the White House. This comes after a conflict with Health Minister Robert F Kennedy, just one month after she was sworn in.

    There was a falling out between Monarez, who is an infectious disease researcher, and Kennedy regarding his stance on vaccines, sources told the New York Times. Kennedy is a well-known vaccine opponent and reportedly tried to remove Monarez before the White House’s announcement, but she refused to leave.

    Four other high-profile CDC officials also left the agency on Wednesday – apparently in protest against Kennedy’s vaccine policy. For example, one of the directors cited “the ongoing politicization of public health” as a reason for resigning in emails seen by The Hill.”
    https://omni.se/usa-s-smittskyddschef-far-sparken-efter-vaccinkonflikt/a/Vzmeb1

    1. Wiiking

      Wasn’t it Trump who mentioned that you can take some chlorine and inject it into the body… not really sure about that but it’s not entirely unbelievable

  19. MXT

    Strange investigation, if it’s true, there are more Republicans than Democrats who want sanctions against Russia. I wonder if they haven’t mixed them up. Regardless, there is a majority in favor.

    • 62% of Americans support sanctioning Russia’s trading partners
    • Trump considers tariffs on China, Turkey, UAE for trading with Russia
    • 76% of Republicans, 58% of Democrats back sanctions on Russian trade partners

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/62-americans-support-sanctions-russias-trading-allies-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2025-08-27/

    1. CB500four

      He does what all dictators do when paranoia strikes. Concentrates power.

      It can be positive for Taiwan, when he replaces competence with loyalty. But on the other hand, he finds it easier to make the decision to invade.

      For example, Stalin’s purges in 1936, although on a different scale, but after the purges, there was a general left who had received officer training in the tsar’s time. So when the Winter War and World War II began, there was an acute shortage of officers. So, if Stalin had not been a paranoid dictator, the outcome of World War II would probably have been different.

  21. johan No.1

    In the Baltic Sea, it’s full speed ahead,

    and all functional hunter-killer submarines in the northern fleet are up and about.

    a CAG off the coast of Denmark

    anything but calm at sea

  23. 205

    As of now, already 14 people are known to have been killed as a result of the Russian attack, including 3 children. A horrific and deliberate killing of civilians.

    The Russians are not choosing to end the war, only new strikes. Overnight in Kyiv, dozens of buildings were damaged: residential houses, office centers, civilian enterprises. Among them also the building where the European Union Delegation to Ukraine is located.

    It is crucial now that the world responds firmly. Russia must stop this war it started and continues. For the spurning of ceasefire and for the constant Russian attempts to weasel out of negotiations, new strong sanctions are needed. Only this can work. The Russians understand only strength and pressure. For every strike, Moscow must feel the consequences.

  24. MXT

    “Russia or a close ally is flying surveillance drones over top-secret routes used by the USA and other Western countries to transport military equipment through eastern Germany towards Ukraine. Several sources have reported this to the New York Times and the German Wirtschaftswoche, who have investigated the matter together.

    ‘It’s espionage, plain and simple,’ says Seth Jones, who has researched Russian sabotage attempts for the think tank CSIS…”
    https://omni.se/ryska-dronare-spionerar-pa-topphemlig-tysk-vapenrutt/a/nydb0B

  25. MXT

    Big thanks to those of you who donate, and also a big thanks to those who contribute with comments!

    You are (besides the colonel yesterday) also worth a medal!

  26. MXT

    “Russia’s massive and deadly air strikes against Kyiv tonight are not well received by Donald Trump, reports news agencies. – He was not happy about the news, but neither surprised. These are two countries that have been at war for a very long time, says his press secretary Karoline Leavitt at a press conference. She adds that Trump will make a statement about the situation later on Thursday.”

  27. 205

    WP: Trump, Gabbard fired top CIA Russia expert days after Alaska summit. 

    The CIA officer — whom The Washington Post is not naming for her protection — was at work at the spy agency’s Langley headquarters when she was abruptly ordered to report to the security office. She was informed that her clearance to look at classified material was being stripped. In a span of minutes, her 29-year career in public service was essentially over. The officer had been expecting an imminent move to Europe to take up a prestigious assignment approved by CIA Director John Ratcliffe. Instead, she became the latest casualty of a widening cull by Trump and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, fueled at times by far-right activist Laura Loomer, targeting national security professionals whom they deem to have engaged in “politicization or weaponization of intelligence to advance personal, partisan, or non-objective agendas,” according to Gabbard’s Aug. 19 memo announcing the revocation at Trump’s direction of security clearances.

    The forced ousters have cut across priority issues on the U.S. national security agenda, removing one of the government’s foremost experts on artificial intelligence; leaders at the National Security Agency, whose vastelectronic eavesdropping haul makes up some of the most vital intelligence sent to the White House; the head of U.S. Cyber Command; as well as the director of the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency. Early in Trump’s administration, experienced officers who had taken temporary stints involving diversity programs were fired. Probationary employees, including nuclear engineers and Chinese-speaking analysts were let go. The ax has fallen on spy agency personnel with decades of experience dealing with Russia and Ukraine, potentially depriving the Trump administration of expertise as it conducts high-stakes diplomacy with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to try to end the conflict that began with Russia’s February 2022 invasion, former U.S. officials said.

    Decades of experience on Russia and Ukraine have been lost for other reasons. A recent downsizing of the State Department’s intelligence bureau led to the departure of three Russia analysts, each of whom had at least 15 years of experience. Tom Sylvester, who as the CIA’s deputy director of operations organized covert support for Ukraine following Russia’s invasion, was promised, then denied, the prestigious post of London station chief. Ratcliffe decided he wanted a younger officer for the post, a person familiar with the matter said. But Sylvester’s assignment was pulled after he was quoted in a new book about the CIA, “The Mission,” which was excerpted in Foreign Policy magazine. The CIA’s Russia team was largely responsible for assessments, disbelieved at the time by many European governments, that accurately predicted Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and enabled Kyiv to take critical preparations that prevented the country from being overrun by Russian forces.

     

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/08/27/cia-officer-russia-trump-gabbard/

    1. DJ

      One wonders if there was anything from the Alaska meeting they didn’t want him to read? Perhaps a suitable skill to recruit to Europe? Our security services may get help to understand the USA — they surely don’t have time to read blogs.

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