Ukraine is currently conducting an offensive at 4-5 front sections, which started just as Elon Musk shut down Starlink for the Russians, as we discussed in the last UA post.
I suspect it mainly concerns Zaporizhia, stabilizing the front, likely in consultation with the USA, but we’ll see how it unfolds.
Ukraine remains completely silent, while Russian sources are in an absolute frenzy, indicating things are going very well. We know from before that when Ukraine stays silent, things are moving in the undergrowth.
Does anyone feel Elon could have shut down Starlink earlier for the Russians?
Do you now understand what the USA did as soon as things started going too well for Ukraine? Elon probably shut down Starlink for Ukraine at least 2-3 times, probably more when things were going too well. At least once was for the maneuver brigades’ ground battle when they were advancing.
They have also provided Ukraine with incorrect information that they acted on, and they have stopped them when things were going too well, asking them to halt where the threat of discontinued support was the blackmail to force Ukraine not to win the war.
The USA has also stopped providing Ukraine with target data and information, but UA now has its own satellites, and apparently France has increased the information provided to Ukraine to 70%.
If Ukraine had been able to fight on equal terms, this war would have already been won, as we knew from before. I won’t bore you with the VDV at Kherson again, but already in 2022.
This Starlink offensive only further confirms that assumption, but we are actually beyond this now – being angry at the damn betrayal by the USA since 2022 and that Europe’s leaders were infiltrated and personally terrified of Putin.
I connected Starlink with Iran, right or wrong, but it could also have been because RU didn’t stop destroying Ukraine with robots?
But in recent days, Ukraine has targeted two refineries and a huge ammunition depot (GRAU), so they are pushing on, so it probably had to do with Iran.
At the same time Starlink went down, RU also shut down Telegram, another channel the RU army uses for issuing orders.
Could it be that Putin doesn’t want to bring RU troops back from Ukraine – I don’t believe this myself, but the thought is born at least 😀
Anyway, this counteroffensive has not yet broken through in the media, Ukraine is silent, and the maps are not updated, but the bits and pieces received from various sources (Budanov has gone silent now that he’s become a politician, then you’re apparently worthless…) suggest that UA has succeeded in carrying out counteroffensives in several places, all of which have gone extremely well, possibly even local breakthroughs.
When Starlink went down, RU’s digital battlefield, drone weapons, and combat communication vanished in one fell swoop, and when they tried to use Telegram instead for issuing orders, that was also shut down.
Dark times on the Russian bench, with generals and officers googling how to seek asylum in Dubai as we speak.
It’s cold, Russian forces are in poor condition, and with a bit of luck, we will soon see how bad their condition is further back – an opportunity Ukraine will never miss.
As previously mentioned, Ukraine has a strategic offensive reserve of over 60,000 fully equipped and elite forces with digital battlefield capabilities and all indirect capabilities at their disposal. I described this offensive reserve in the winter of 2024 and faced some skepticism, but it turned out to be true, of course.
I also guess that more brigades than that have been resting for a while now, so there should be an additional offensive reserve available beyond those we haven’t seen yet, but those 60,000+ troops have the best training, equipment, and personnel.
RU is also building up a potent drone weapon of 160,000, and their material losses are low, so they are definitely preparing for an extended conflict, as we have discussed before.
But…
Europe has now caught up with drone interceptors and even lasers – there are NOW countermeasures against the drone weapon that will likely be deployed in units and at borders by summer, perhaps?
With the ongoing whack-a-mole, we have previously speculated that RU’s window to do something fun against the Baltics would close around the summer of 2026 – that guess will likely be accurate again, you’ll see.
It’s almost spring, and Budanov (before he became important with a tie) announced that RU is preparing a spring offensive. Since the damn Russians have had offensive operations constantly since the fall of 2023, there is a high probability of that.
I interpret this UA counteroffensive as them seizing an opportunity, BUT they must have received advance notice that Starlink would be shut down – I don’t know the details of how things unfolded or what the US’s motives were for informing Ukraine, but it was a positive development.
All sensible analysts now seem to agree that I was right earlier when I wrote that RU had built up an offensive capability outside Ukraine, and now the Germans are also warning about it – they must have caught up on my posts, but those bastards don’t have a paid subscription.
What the Germans have obviously missed is that the whack-a-mole has now shifted so that RU’s window to somehow enter the Baltics soon is closed. In my opinion, the highest risk was during Zapad 25 in the fall of 2024, and now the curve will trend downward towards zero until summer/after summer.
The reason is very simple – the RU armed forces without the drone weapon are not deadly at all, I will come back to that below.
The easiest way for Europe to succeed – let Ukraine defeat Russia so they turn inwards for 20 years.
Then we can fortify the border again and agree on all measures against Russia when they fight internally because apparently we need many years to make simple decisions.
We have been saying this since 2022, and it still holds true.
You already know the USA’s plan – force a ceasefire and announce that all sanctions are lifted the same day. Still annoyed that Trump fooled me in August 2024, but now it seems to be too late for Ukraine, and Europe doesn’t care.
That Russia will try to politically and later militarily defeat Ukraine is collateral, Trump did his utmost to bring down Zelensky already, but fortunately, the country held together.
Now, onto Johan No.1’s self-congratulatory branch for being an oracle on par with the ancient lady in Delphi.
On two occasions, Ukraine participated with drone groups in exercises with NATO forces and completely crushed them.
A small drone group took out dozens of targets, and RU now has a drone arsenal of 80,000 or so and is building it up to 160,000. Just like Ukraine, Russia has learned what works after making all the mistakes themselves.
WHAT DID I SAY.
There you have the reason why the Baltics are deserted, which was the assumption when I described Operation Baltics and a likely reason why Europe did not honor its agreements with the Balts.
Because in these agreements we promise to deploy heavy mechanized brigades in the Baltics in case of an increased threat, as was the case during Zapad 25.
Europe knew that the Russian drone weapon would tear them apart, and no sitting head of state in Europe today would politically survive thousands of dead young soldiers in a week… so they TOOK A CHANCE.
Europe TOOK A CHANCE that Ukraine would be able to hold out and that Russia would not open a new front in the Baltics in any form, after invading Ukraine and showing themselves to be completely ruthless.
But now we are beyond that IF Ukraine can only disrupt the Russian bastards long enough in Ukraine so that Europe can get all the anti-drone technology to the eastern front in bulk now during 2026.
The sacrifice UA made for us to have four years to get organized is indescribable, but of course it will be Macron, Scholtz, Merz, Starmer, Biden, and Trump who saved the world when history is to be written – and you can perhaps guess who has a lifelong job to write history fairly.
So we add it to the pile of qualified guesses that turned out to be correct and hope that everyone at the time of the counter-comments understands how much they have ruined their own reputation by not agreeing with me on everything.
If nothing else, during year 4 you also had the chance to accept the truth as it is and not as the media and politicians try to spin it.
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
Russian losses in Ukraine
SLAVA UKRAINI
Great post. Thank you. Johan would have been said to write with Sweden’s sharpest pen 25 years ago. Now I don’t know what they say when everything is via email. It’s good anyway. Humor is present, we like that. Nothing is so serious that it can’t be joked about. Ask the English. They always win the final battle.
I agree! I really like Johan’s way of expressing himself, mixing facts with sometimes breathtaking speculations, seriousness, humor, a little insight into the private sphere, etc. A delightful mix that overall is entertaining to read even when the subject is dark.
Great that it’s liked and thanks for the kind words 😀
A clear increase in the localized Russian attacks, especially to the south along the front, once again focusing on Pokrovsk/Huliaipole, while in the north the number of attacks and pressure decreased.
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 6
S Slobozhansky 4↘️
Kupyansk 1↘️
Lyman 6↘️
Slovyansk 8↘️
Kramatorsk 0↘️
Kostjantynivka 38💥↗️
Pokrovsk 63💥💥💥
Oleksandrivskij 21💥↗️
Huliaipole 37💥💥↗️
Orikhivsk 7↗️
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 0
Sum sectors 181↗️
Unlocalized 54
Total 235↗️
With a hypothetical 3 Russian KIA/localized Russian attack (based on KIA/attack in Pokrovsk in the 22-report) and 10 Russian KIA/unlocalized possible Ukrainian attack (based on a few and far from all observations) we get:
181*3 + 54*10 = 1,083 KIA
ABS(1083-1180)/1083 = 0.0896 or 8.9% deviation from the hypothesis.
Guess – since Trump is at the helm, they will try to release films of their political opponents first and see if it’s enough in the Epstein case
If it were to turn out that Trump had been a frequent guest at Epstein’s, Trump would probably have replied that he actually had neither the time nor the desire for such equivocal gatherings, but the girls forced him to come because they wanted a real he-man and not dry balls who were part of Epstein’s circle.
Thank you for a good front review. If the window of the Baltic states is now closing, are there other potential targets for Russia’s reserve: the Arctic, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Kazakhstan? Or maybe bottom up in Ukraine?
💥Pokrovsk direction. BBps VORON of the 100th OMB destroys enemy equipment and personnel! Drones hit 2 motorcyclists, 8 Russians, 6 antennas, 2 quadricyclists, ground drone and Bukhanka!
“❗️”That Ukraine is ready for compromise does not mean that we will give away our territories,” — Zelenskyy “On what compromise are we ready? Not on the one that will give Russia the opportunity to quickly recover and come again and occupy us. This is important.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mexwe4kdws27
⚡️Kalynivka (Zaporizhzhia region), an area of concentration of enemy manpower was hit.
🔥Novopavlivka (Donetsk region), an enemy communication hub was hit.
💥Berezove (Dnipropetrovsk region), concentration of enemy manpower.
💥Zatyshok (Donetsk region), an occupiers’ UAV control point was hit.
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mexw36hwjs2w
OT, Weather
So that’s where the heat has gone. Starting to get tired of the cold now.
“Greenland’s west coast has had its warmest January in 109 years. This is reported by AFP.
The capital Nuuk has recorded an average temperature of 0.1 degrees, which is 7.8 degrees higher than the average of the past three decades. The warmest day reached 11.3 degrees. Even the city of Ilulissat further north was 11 degrees warmer than the average during January.
It is not uncommon for warmer air to move over Greenland for a day or two. But the fact that the record extends over such a large area indicates that something is changing, according to climate researcher Martin Olesen at the Danish Meteorological Institute.”
https://omni.se/januari-varmaste-manaden-pa-gronlands-vastkust-pa-109-ar/a/d4nQqX
“Ymer” is in the Gävle Bay…
I hope he (Ymer from Norse mythology was indeed hesitant) doesn’t freeze solid!
I wouldn’t be surprised if this summer we get to experience a long heatwave that makes us long back to February, even if it was just for a day. I prefer cold over heat. By that, I don’t mean what we call Swedish summer, which is nice, but when the temperature is over 30 degrees. That’s when I feel unwell.
I remember once when we loaded “king prawns” in Khorramshahr at the far end of the Persian Gulf. It was the Japanese who were fishing, and normally we would go to Japan to unload. But these giant prawns were bound for New York, with the final destination being the fine restaurants in the USA. Summer in the “Persian Gulf” is terrible. We actually had to light fires on deck to sit around and cool off. That’s how hot it was. After this experience, I have always longed for this weather that we are experiencing now. 🥶😉
“🇭🇺 Hungary Wants to Supply Russian Oil via an Alternative Route Hungary officially appealed to 🇭🇷Croatia, asking to allow Russian oil deliveries through the Adriatic route. The reason is the suspension of transit through 🇺🇦Ukraine.”
https://bsky.app/profile/theukrainianreview.bsky.social/post/3mexvwebrxc2w
https://theukrainianreview.info/hungary-wants-to-supply-russian-oil-via-an-alternative-route/
“❗️U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio höll ett möte i Budapest med ungerska premiärministern Viktor Orbán. Enligt det officiella uttalandet var de huvudsakliga ämnena för samtalen frågor om att uppnå fred i Ukraina och fördjupande av det ungersk-amerikanska samarbetet.”
Wow, Orban has become really popular since Trump came to power.
One might think positively that the USA is trying to keep Hungary in the West, but it is more likely that they are cozying up to Orban so that he can continue to help divide and slow down the EU.
“En adress kopplad till en rysk underrättelseagent i Berlin avslöjade en rysk affärsgrupp som importerar europeiska kemikalier som potentiellt används i Rysslands krutproduktion.”
“🇬🇧 British Intelligence: Near Kupyansk Ukraine inflicted losses on the Russians in the ratio of 27 to 1 – The Times Before Christmas up to 200 Russian soldiers were surrounded. Total losses of the Russians in this area over the past year are estimated in the thousands.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mexuxzpkoc2j
OT, Sweden’s economy
It costs if you want to indulge in pork barrel politics! 😂
But really, one shouldn’t use a laughing emoji if it risks creating increased costs for many years to come. We don’t want to end up like the USA.
Unless all the extra expenses go to Ukraine, of course, then I’m completely on board and defense surely accounts for a lot.
But maybe it’s not so smart to lower income taxes at the same time as you have increased costs.
It’s a bit like going down to work part-time while upgrading to a housing that’s twice as expensive.
“The government’s budget is heavily criticized by the Fiscal Policy Council. The Council argues that the policy being pursued violates the principles of the fiscal policy framework and describes the proposed budget as “too expansionary”.
– The deficit is too large. It will very much limit the space for future governments, says Lars Heikensten, the outgoing chairman of the council, at a press conference.
The budget – which includes a budget space of 80 billion SEK, of which just over half is financed by loans – results, according to the council’s assessment, in “the largest deficit in 30 years, except for the pandemic year 2020″.”
https://omni.se/skarp-kritik-mot-budgeten-berovar-framtida-regeringar-reformutrymme/a/ExakR3
The Moderate Party would probably like to please the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise (improving conditions for businesses is close to their hearts) but in this case, it obviously clashes with their, and perhaps mainly with the Sweden Democrats’, views on immigrants. It is unlikely that any of his proposals will materialize, at least not before the election. The Moderate Party does not want to risk losing even more voters to the Sweden Democrats.
“Review the rules for labor immigration. It is a way to boost Sweden’s growth, which is necessary to make Sweden more competitive,” says the Chief Economist of the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise, Sven-Olov Daunfeldt, to Aftonbladet.
The comment comes after Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson’s (M) statement that the room for reforms in the next mandate period is exhausted after investments in, among other things, reduced VAT on food and lowered taxes.
“Removing the new wage floor for labor immigrants is a solution that costs the state nothing,” he says.
He is also critical of the government’s short-term investments and hopes that the reduced VAT on food will be temporary.”
https://omni.se/naringslivets-svar-pa-reformutrymmet-arbetskraftsinvandring/a/7pd1eo
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/rrE3L0/invandring-ska-losa-regeringens-pengakris-enligt-forslag-fran-svenskt-naringsliv
Here is some other criticism, but here they want to see, among other things, more tax cuts to free up capital for companies and consumers.
https://www.teknikforetagen.se/nyhetscenter/pressrum/pressmeddelanden/teknikforetagen-kommenterar-beskedet-om-reformutrymmet/
“President Zelensky said intelligence shows Russia is preparing a massive strike. Speaking after a meeting on regional security, he said Russian forces continue attacks ahead of three party talks in Geneva. He instructed the Air Force, Defense Ministry and Ukrenergo to prepare extra protection steps.”
“Over 1,500 apartment buildings remain without heating in Kyiv after Russian attacks, local authorities say”
“😎🔥 The Third Army Corps’ FPV destroys camouflaged tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, MTBs, trucks, light trucks and Bukhanka with infantry.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mey3ppc3hs2p
“❗️Hunting 🇷🇺Russian soldiers and logistics by fighters of the National Police brigade “🇺🇦Khizhak”.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mey2plr24c27
Crude oil is holding at around 63 USD/barrel while Ural is at just over 55, but the latter is from February 12th. Brent is at 67.8.
Rubio sometimes seems to completely lose his judgment.
“US Secretary of State Marco Rubio praises Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s leadership during a visit to Budapest on Monday, writes AFP. He also supports Orban and his party ahead of the upcoming election.
“I can confidently say that President Trump is deeply committed to your success, because your success is our success,” Rubio said during a joint press conference.
Orban has been prime minister since 2010, and also held the position between 1998 and 2002. Ahead of the election in April, he is trailing opposition leader Peter Magyar in several polls. He said during the press conference that the next government will be formed according to the will of the people.
“Sometimes I win and sometimes I lose. So I’m not afraid of what will happen if we don’t win, because it happens regularly here,” he said.”
https://omni.se/rubio-hyllar-orban-er-framgang-ar-var-framgang/a/PdoLQ0
Crazy…”Your success is our success” doesn’t sound good. Success for Orban is to take money from the EU and to be against all EU decisions that are good for Ukraine and bad for Russia.
Actually reminds me of what Trump has been up to.
😂
“The authorities are deliberately sabotaging the SMO!” – Russian patriots have concluded that the country is being run by “traitors and spies.”
https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3mey7h73d222k
“‼️ Russia: “Bank Saint Petersburg saw its net profit under Russian accounting standards (RAS) fall by 29.4% in January, to 3.6 billion rubles.”
RAS = Russian Accounting Standards”
“‼️ Russia: “Russian Emergency Situations Ministry Head Alexander Kurenkov announced a staff shortage within the agency’s departments due to low wages.”
Money for the war, but not for this”
http://www.interfax.ru/russia/1073035
Off-topic, the Gulf Stream does not reach Iceland as it usually does.
Hm, or is it that the water begins to sink down? Below the less salty water coming from Greenland…
I have stopped listening to the USA.
August 2024 was my limit when Trump mostly fooled MXT but I didn’t completely resist.
Rubio says what pacifies us for the moment.