I have the impression that Europe’s leaders are now taking a tough stance against the USA and Trump’s more than ugly attempts to favor Putin, and that Putin now cannot agree to any ceasefire/peace plan because of this.
Rubio has even come out and said that defense guarantees can be discussed after Ukraine signs the peace agreement – this is directly ridiculous, and then he was the adult in the room but evidently career before integrity.
What has also happened since the last post is that a conversation between Witkoff and RU has been leaked, where it is very clear that Witkoff acts as a support function to Russia and helps torpedo all of Zelensky’s attempts to reach Trump, coaching Putin to succeed much better. Presumably with Trump’s approval.
Witkoff has known when important events are supposed to happen and has leaked to Russia so they can act before or position themselves advantageously.
For example – “We can give you Donbass if you conquer it” and then a major Russian offensive begins.
And then Trump says – “well, Russia has taken it so then they just get it fairly.”
They have simply agreed beforehand on how to work against Europe and Ukraine to achieve the goal that Russia should profit in Ukraine. How this is good for the USA, we can continue to ponder.
While the USA refuses to meet with Kaja Kallas now, they are so angry with the EU, which is perfect.
We already have all the evidence we need for what we suspected last spring before Trump made a U-turn in the summer that the USA is playing a double game with Russia, and that Europe and Ukraine are not part of the closed circle.
Biden did the same before – had a direct line to Putin where he leaked important information, and the only time Ukraine kept quiet was with Kursk so they caught Putin off guard.
But that ruined Trump’s bargaining chip anyway later after Biden also didn’t want to mention it at all, and it was rumored that the USA was furious about it.
Zelensky has told us what it looked like from 2022 to 2025, and Trump is so transparent that now we get almost everything in real-time.
The USA is just like the bank, not our friend – we have four years of this now, and then one occasion where Trump fooled us this summer.
But Europe refused to listen to everyone saying that the right strategy is to lie low – if they haven’t risen, they are at least on their way to standing up now.
Macron was smart – “the day there is a ceasefire, we send our brigades into Ukraine.”
This crashed the RU strategy completely – golf claps to Macron.
With a bit of luck, we are past a ceasefire now, at least Kasparov went crazy about it.
But as has been said more than once in previous posts – it does not solve the overarching problem that Ukraine is fighting against Russia, North Korea, and China simultaneously.
Since the summer, I have gone through the fronts in my posts, so this is not news.
Ukraine showed tactical adaptation about a month ago and managed to hold the fronts together, but it required them to use their offensive strategic reserve.
Europe needs to do more – much more.
Some believe that Europe is planning for more severe explosive measures against Russia.
I have been screaming about the USA since 2022 with a break this summer when Trump seemed to be heading in the right direction, and now we are back at the baseline.
In another forum, one was torn to pieces if criticizing Biden, but Trump seems okay to criticize – completely unable to see the USA’s red line since 2022, so it’s good that Europe’s leaders can throw off ideological blinders.
Trump’s all tariffs, which I still believe were an attempt to trigger a crash in a country other than the USA, were also exciting – it ended with Ukraine getting some but Russia none.
Haven’t we long passed the point where Europe should stand up, or else we engage in self-harm? I think so.
After all, Europe’s leaders have the most important task of looking after the best interests of Europe’s citizens.
We must not forget China, but here too, the USA/Trump strategy does not seem to be what I seriously thought it was, and I am very surprised right now, bordering on bewildered.
Trump has just bowed to China and reprimanded Japan for trying to provide Taiwan with some form of security guarantees.
Taiwan is not doing well right now, and the risk of China taking action has increased exponentially.
This should send shockwaves through the entire West, including the USA, but I have not followed the aftermath.
In these posts, we have also discussed that Europe may lack what China holds back, and as always, it turned out to be true – that Johan No.1 is on top of things.
50 companies in Europe have so far had their production disrupted in this way.
I’ll say it again – this could very well be a coordinated attack against Europe from the USA, China, and Russia where they are trying to bring Europe under a Russian Cold War boot and then the USA sells us security at five times the price.
It’s hard to see a common denominator other than this – they are pulling in the same direction on that issue.
Europe tried all spring to approach China, but we were rebuffed.
Russia plans to continue waging war against us just below Article 5, and Moldova is a very good candidate along with little green men in the Baltics.
The USA has been very hard on us throughout the war, I think, but it has escalated under Trump.
Yes, no one wants a return to a Europe that colonizes the world, but we have been submissive enough to harm ourselves.
China seems to have structural financial problems within the country that could bring them down – if the right buttons are pressed and we in the West unite, maybe we can economically bring down China?
Russia is busy with Ukraine, but since we have done absolutely nothing, they have calmly prepared for phase 2, which is to go after us – now everyone with a bit of insight says this, not just Johan No.1.
Hamas terrorist cells in Europe that Israel gave us were unsettling, where mass murders were planned.
Poland and the Baltics have war-preparing sabotage in the country and use the term hybrid warfare themselves.
Russia tried to politically bring down Moldova and Romania but failed – no one probably believes they have given up these attempts, everything is a few murders away from escalating, and GRU kills when needed.
In previous posts, we have shown that the Baltics have barely built any defense lines yet, and now this osintar came to the same conclusion – when I looked, there were 40km ditches.
Yes, we are extremely unprepared as we do not master drone weapons or the warfare of 2025, but do you know what is even worse?
A ceasefire in Ukraine, or God forbid that Ukraine throws in the towel.
Europe is approaching the point where we will intervene, and that is welcome – exactly how this will look, we do not yet know, but troops in the Baltics, Belarus border in Ukraine, and some kind of no-fly zone/LV zone in western Ukraine are the most likely scenarios in addition to SOF in various places we will never find out about.
Keir Starmer has ongoing existential problems, but Merz dares and Macron is very French even though his domestic problems always start as soon as he opens up to Putin, correlation 1 on that.
The Nordics are still on the right track, and we have had several sensible statements recently – we are showing our teeth and the claws are out.
We need to avoid a scenario where Ukraine cannot hold out and accepts any peace, because then it will be too late.
If Europe can balance on this fine line, this might work, but we need to be able to read the room correctly because Zelensky is not Gandalf and cannot handle everything.
I am satisfied with how we have confronted the absolutely shameless attempts by the USA to give Russia a rigged victory in negotiations – Europe deserves top marks for that.
I am also pleased that all those who have constantly advocated in comments under my posts on all platforms that Europe’s low-key approach was the only right one have now been proven completely wrong. I don’t think they care the least bit, but now they advocate for this new approach instead – being reactive is easy.
Already today, the foreign legion is somewhere in eastern Poland training with Ukrainian instructors for the war of 2025, and they are the only unit that can deploy quickly without a lot of political (non) decisions.
We may have avoided 1938, but we have a whole series of very difficult decisions ahead of us where we will have to sacrifice lives, but if we solve the Russia problem once and for all, we will hit many birds with one stone and, above all, de-escalate the global conflict.
I believe that China needs Russia to keep Europe in check, and if Russia turns inward, we have built our modern Maginot Line from northern Finland to eastern Ukraine, and then when we send our capabilities to Asia, China will have a tough time.
Then there will be a shift, and they will probably turn against Russia instead and reclaim what they lost to them in the 1800s and then some.
I maintain that if Europe brings back manufacturing from China/Asia and then turns towards Africa with FAIR trade agreements where we get the natural resources we need and they, in the first step, gain access to our internal market and then integrate with us step by step, Europe and Africa will emerge as an economic spearhead in the next 50 years.
The winners will be Europe-Africa, and it will not be aid but an absolutely enormous market for Europe for our products and an absolutely enormous market for Africa for the natural resources they have. Then we will rebuild our welfare again, and the countries that chose us will build up their countries into modern wonders in a relatively short time.
It has apparently already begun, posted in 205 on johanno1.se – does Johan No.1 have it under control, he wonders himself now, the meeting was also in Luanda, which is in Angola, the country I always talk about, right? 😀
I have a separate post coming up about Angola, but if a company wants a bright future, Africa is a very good suggestion, and Angola is even better.
You can be sure of one thing, and that is that Russia and China do not like this, so Europe also needs to be prepared to lend out some SOF to clear out Chinese and Wagner, but one should not underestimate the various African countries’ own abilities to clean up the mess, they just need a viable alternative to choose instead.
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The war in Ukraine – Russian losses:
SLAVA UKRAINI
AFU reports:
“Russia has the upper hand on the battlefield and does not intend to lay down its weapons unless Ukraine makes the concessions the country demands, said Vladimir Putin on Thursday. He demands that Ukraine withdraw from the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.
“If they do not withdraw, we will take Donbas with the help of our weapons,” Putin said.
Putin commented for the first time on the peace plan developed by the USA. He admitted that Russia has provided some input and said that the plan is based on discussions that took place before the summit in Alaska in August.
However, the Russian president does not call it a peace plan but a “basis for future discussions.”
Over the weekend, US envoy Steve Witkoff will travel to Moscow. He is expected to meet with Putin early next week.”
The total of 247 represented an increase of 16%. At the same time, the sum of the number of Russian attacks along the front increased by just under 6%. The increase in unlocated attacks was 220%. Unlocated attacks are assumed, in the absence of other explanations, to be Ukrainian attacks. The Ukrainian attacks relative to the Russian ones increased from 10% to 32%. The pressure in Lyman decreased, as did in Pokrovsk. The focus shifted northward and south/westward.
(32-10)/10*100=220
247-213=34, 34/213*100=15.962
215-203=12, 12/215*100=5.581
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 8↗️
S Slobozhansky 6↗️
Kupyansk 6
Lyman 29💥💥↘️
Slovyansk 13💥
Kramatorsk 3
Kostjantynivka 31💥💥
Pokrovsk 51💥💥💥↘️
Oleksandrivskij 29💥💥↗️
Huliaypillia 20💥
Orikhivsk 10💥↗️
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 1
Sum sectors 215↗️
Total 247↗️
Unloc 32↗️
Exciting that drones and artillery have decreased so much 🧐
Did you see that the EU voted on a resolution for the war that is not the least low-key 🤣🤣
We did the right thing 👍
Looks better and better. It will be fun to see if the situation improves or escalates.
Wait until Europe is the warmongers about 1.2.3…
Witkoff’s call was not appreciated – everyone is blaming everyone.
Do you think it looks good in the short term perspective?
“I’ll say it again – this could very well be a coordinated attack on Europe from the USA, China, and Russia where they are trying to bring Europe under a Russian Cold War boot and then the USA sells us security at five times the price.“
“🇺🇦 Ukrainian Air Defence shot down or suppressed: 🔹63/72 Drones 🔸0/1 Iskander-M missile”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3m6oixkx4ek22
MXT. Looks like Musk has removed the ability to use X as an image bank. Up until now, you could open the image in a web browser from the app or web and paste the link into the image editor. Have you seen any hacks?
Update: Aa, found it! The menu option ‘Open image’. Opens the image with a link. In chrome.
Otherwise, the post would be about the security guarantees of the Principality of Russia from the Vatican City, rotating monthly Swiss Guard.
On the computer, I right-click on the image and choose “copy image address,” then I click on the image icon in the editor and paste the URL there. On the mobile, I tap on the image to open it alone, then I select the share icon and there is “copy link.”
However, in Bluesky, I can’t find a way to copy the image link on mobile. There are a billion ways to share, but the simplest function of just copying the image link does not exist…
(Link to the post exists but not to the image itself.)
https://x.com/DakdaR22/status/1993632306561536064/photo/1
“As for security guarantees: I do not believe in Article 5 of NATO. The only security guarantee is Russian deimperilization. Russia must be defeated.”
@HopkoHanna 🔥🔥🔥at the Halifax Security Forum
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79z219i-LwI
Now the right things are being said 🤩🤩
A deimperialized Russia, “Principality of Russia”, can be offered security guarantees from the Vatican City, a troop detached from the Swiss Guard, which is rotated monthly. The royal palace guard will face competition from the changing of the guard at Red Square, but we will probably have to live with that.
I totally agree!
Security guarantees on paper are not worth much. The only real security guarantee is that Russia receives a “bloody nose” of such a nature that they refrain from an attack on Europe for a very long time to come.
Exactly
A little action and Moscow is burning and bleeding 🤩🤩
Apparently, Trump is ready to acknowledge Crimea as Russian according to some news flash.
Completely crazy, that man must be removed from the presidency.
All set up for Russia’s benefit.
They are pretty cheeky, Ukraine not playing along – is what Zelensky is doing even legal?
Trump has the habit since the last time he was president. Then admitted that the Golan Heights belong to Israel.
The USA will soon announce that it recognizes the Crimean Peninsula and other Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine as Russian territory, according to The Telegraph. According to the newspaper’s sources, Donald Trump has tasked the envoy Steve Witkoff with delivering the message when he meets Vladimir Putin in the coming days. The plan is to persuade the Russian president to agree to a peace deal. Both Ukraine and its allies in Europe have opposed the plans to give Russia control over the occupied areas. “It is becoming increasingly clear that the Americans do not care about Europe’s opinion. They say that Europeans can think what they want,” says one of the newspaper’s sources.
This is starting to get really exciting now.
Alaska belongs to Russia, says Europe. The USA can think what they want. Jokes aside, now we must firmly put our foot down. We can start by hitting Russia’s food industry through Ukraine. Provide Ukraine with everything they need. Then the Moscow state can survive on rice from China and food packages from Europe. Sell US loans, etc.
AFU🇺🇦
⚡️⚡️The Saratov oil refinery, the UAV storage facility at the Saki airfield, and a number of other military facilities were hit.
⚡️As part of efforts to reduce the military and economic potential of the Russian aggressor, on the night of November 28, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the Saratov Oil Refinery in the Saratov region of the Russian Federation. The enterprise produces more than 20 types of petroleum products – gasoline, fuel oil, diesel fuel, technical sulfur, etc. It is involved in meeting the needs of the Russian occupation army.
💥A series of explosions was recorded, after which a fire was observed in the target area. The results of the strikes are being clarified.
⚡️The UAV storage facility at the Saki airfield (Novofedorivka, temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) was also hit. According to preliminary information, several air defense facilities were hit at the airfield, in particular, Pantsir-S1 and TOR-M2. After suppressing the enemy’s air defense systems, the hangar where the enemy’s Orion and Forpost drones were stored was destroyed. At the same time, the Ukrainian Defense Forces also struck the enemy’s command and control center and a KamAZ military truck. The extent of the damage is being clarified.
⚡️In addition, areas where enemy forces were concentrated and fuel and lubricant depots in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions were hit. The results are being clarified.
The Defense Forces continue to take all measures to undermine the military and economic potential of the Russian occupiers and force the Russian Federation to stop its armed aggression against Ukraine.
💥To be continued!
Glory to Ukraine!🇺🇦
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/17Un8FF62V/?mibextid=wwXIfr
“If Donald Trump were to recognize the occupied Ukrainian territories as Russian, it would be a major step towards a very uncertain world where great powers do as they please. This is according to Jakob Hedenskog, Eastern Europe analyst at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, speaking to GP. Hedenskog would not be surprised if it happens – Trump’s only goal is business deals with Russia, and the war is a disruptive factor standing in the way, he says. It would also be further evidence that Trump ultimately always follows Russia’s line, adds Hedenskog. – We can no longer consider the USA as an impartial mediator in this. The USA is on Russia’s side.”
Remaining for China to bribe Trump so he will probably acknowledge Taiwan as Chinese as well, only if they promise to wait with attacking them until his presidency is over.
I absolutely do not want to downplay the problems with Crimea, Taiwan, and the Golan Heights now that the intelligence phenomenon Trump has once again caught a feeling. But if I stick to my own area, Trump could well address the problem with Hallands Väderö. The island is Scanian, and it’s the Danes’ fault. While he’s messing with the Danes about Greenland, he can certainly return Väderön to the right province. Is that too much to ask for?
😀👍
Yes, damn, he is too lazy to tackle the really big problems!
😂😆😂😆😉
CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT! Someone Is Inside the Kremlin’s Walls
Follow-Up Analysis: The Real Revelation Hidden in the European SIGINT Leak
The reporting on the intercepted calls involving U.S. presidential evoy Steve Witkoff, Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov, and sanctioned Russian financier and head of Russia’s Sovereign Fund Kirill Dmitriev has now entered a new phase. The first round of our analysis only focused on the content of the Witkoff – Usakov call and the fact that Europe revealed any intercept at all. The real story, however, only comes into focus when the Dmitriev–Ushakov leak is examined on its own merits.
The Witkoff call could have been intercepted because Witkoff used an unsecured phone. That would compromise only one side of the communication. It would be embarrassing and politically explosive, but it would not reveal anything about European visibility inside the Russian state.
The Ushakov–Dmitriev call is an entirely different category of signal. It is not something that can be captured by monitoring a single insecure handset. This was a conversation between two hardened Kremlin communications nodes inside Russian territory. Russia treats these channels as strategic assets. They sit behind layered encryption, physical compartmentalization, and continuous counterintelligence monitoring. Their compromise is viewed inside the Russian system as a direct national-security breach.
There is no world in which that intercept can be explained as a lucky catch. It is evidence of penetration. It is evidence of access. It is evidence that a European intelligence service is inside a Russian secure pathway that Moscow believed was locked down.
And here is the most important point. Europe did not accidentally leak it. Europe burned that access on purpose. This is not the behavior of a single rogue country freelancing. This is the behavior of an alliance making a calculated decision. To release a Kremlin-level SIGINT product is to throw away a crown jewel capability. Services spend years, sometimes decades, cultivating that kind of window. To reveal it intentionally is to choose immediate strategic effect over long-term operational access.
The fact that Europe made that choice tells us something profound. They judged the risks posed by U.S.–Russia shadow diplomacy to be so great that they were willing to destroy one of their own most valuable sources to stop it.
The timing is not a coincidence wither. The intercept comes at the same moment European governments were blindsided by the 28-point plan drafted in Miami with Russian participation. At the same moment their diplomats were cut out. At the same moment the U.S. administration pushed a Russia-forward proposal without consultation and rapid unvetted approval. At the same moment Moscow attempted to frame the West as obstructionist.
Europe looked at that picture and made a strategic decision. They signaled that they were monitoring the Miami channel and that those conducting it should assume they are visible. They also signaled to the Kremlin that European penetration of Russian communications infrastructure is not hypothetical. It is operational.
This was not a message written in words. It was written in the choice of what to leak and what to withhold. The benign slice they chose to release, rather than the damaging content they kept, follows a classic intelligence pattern. When a service wants to send a warning without blowing up the geopolitical environment, it releases the smallest possible piece that demonstrates access.
That leaves the final question. Why now?
From an OSINT perspective, the answer is straightforward. Europe decided that stopping Russian influence operations inside the U.S. national decision chain now outweighs the cost of exposing their capabilities. They also signaled to the White House that any attempt to run off-book diplomacy with Moscow will not be uncontested. The warning was calibrated and unmistakable.
Someone in Europe sent a message so clear that anyone who has ever worked behind classified doors can feel the shift. They did not reveal the conversation. They revealed the system behind it. They revealed they are inside it. They revealed they are watching.
And for the actors who built the Miami channel, that changes everything. Their private discussions were never private. Their assumption of secrecy was never real. Their belief that they were moving unseen was incorrect.
Europe did not just publish a leak. Europe fired a warning shot. It crossed oceans. It landed in two capitals.
And it hit its mark.
———————————
Follow #OSINT Intuit™ for evidence-based analysis of hostile influence and information warfare. Photo: Getty Images via NBC News
https://x.com/mobbs_mentality/status/1994111428425302188?s=46
Very interesting! We live in exciting times in many ways now.
Jädrar, you are absolutely right. Many pale sweaty foreheads today.
👍👍👍
It became a TAco 🌮 at the deadline (yesterday)?
https://www.facebook.com/share/r/19gyTQVy8V/?mibextid=wwXIfr
On Friday, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán visited Moscow. There he met Vladimir Putin, who praised his Russia-friendly policies. “We are aware of your balanced stance regarding the situation in Ukraine,” Putin said according to state TV. Orbán also promised Putin to continue buying Russian oil, AFP reports. Putin praised Orbán for proposing a meeting between the Russian and US governments in Budapest. The planned meeting was canceled by Trump after Russia refused to compromise in the peace negotiations. Hungary is dependent on Russian oil, and Orbán has consistently maintained good relations with the Kremlin during the war. Last month, he secured an exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil.