This is the last post before the end of the month, so I remind you of your sunny opportunity to find the QR code on johanno1.se and make a donation for a happier and more fun life – everything gets better.
The Ukrainian soul, legends all of them.
And Portugal of all places has soured on Trump, very un-Portuguese one must admit – good.
It seems my routine has become to post highlights from the news feed on my Bluesky or Substack, and then write comments on johanno1.se during the day where I discuss events.
Everything is then analyzed world-leadingly and after various empirical lab tests and further input from big names like Nelson Mandela, I then put together the whole package into a post. All three channels are worth checking out as they are updated all the time.
Like homework, you do the homework beforehand and become the best in class instead of waiting until the night before submission and crashing everything by playing Starcraft instead.
If you have read up on all the pages, the lunchroom Jesus will have a hard time, you know, the one who always knows everything and shoots you down so violently that you start to consider eating lunch in front of the computer instead.
Now you have all the information you need for a stunning broadside so he will probably resign in pure horror.
It seems like Ukraine is fighting the whole palette right now, the Ust-Luga LNG facility is burning like a Christmas tree.
And here an oil pipeline.
If they can just cut the Yamal-cross, this war is probably over quite soon, such a blow won’t survive Putin 😀
And yesterday there were two refinery attacks again, Kuybushevsk and Afipsky in Krasnodar, which was a second-fighting, but it still counts.
Good because then we know that Trump didn’t intervene, because something highly relevant in the discussion is that at about this point, the USA and Europe usually intervene in the worst possible ways. Sweeping under the rug is just the beginning.
It seems like Trump is on his way to start thinking about how he can stop Ukraine again?
I don’t think Trump has any cards left to play, his power over Ukraine is forfeited.
The first thing this tells us is that it hurts Putin, a lot, and that he has gone to complain to Trump who promised to try.
The second is that Ukraine has now reached the level where they have free rein to conduct the asymmetric warfare they find best. If they don’t stop, they will win the war.
It is incomprehensible that the USA/Trump has tied itself to Russia, but that’s where we are now and my dollar salary is rolling around and dying as we speak 😭
Avdiivka and Bakhmut fell due to withdrawn support and for Kursk, Ukraine was punished by pausing everything, if I remember correctly.
Exactly how the communication has gone will be revealed in the future, but at some level, Russia has been able to convey to the West what is undesirable, and we have accommodated it.
For Ukraine to succeed this time, it requires that we don’t intervene – otherwise, it will be the same cycle as during over three years of war, UA gains momentum, UA gets momentum, the West throws a wet blanket over everything, and the situation collapses.
I have had a very hard time understanding Europe’s rationale for this, as Russia has been explaining to us since 2007 what their plans are, and now they have begun to implement their diabolical plan where Ukraine is just the beginning.
Just as China needs to take Taiwan to get through the door, Russia needs to take Ukraine to reach Europe.
Ukraine as usual takes the full blow, and the hope is that Europe has now finally realized this, and that UA’s offer to continue taking the blow only applied for another 30 days.
What we need now
– 10-15 burning refineries during September and more strikes against oil infrastructure and storage capacity (oil depots).
– Combat all export ports – it’s a dock and technical equipment to pump LNG, oil, or refined products onto ships. There aren’t excessively many lines for that.
– Continue to drone apart the railway network, ammunition trains and fuel trains are easy targets.
– Sink some ships in the harbor entrances?
– Blow up nodes for oil/LNG/refineries going in/out of Russia.
– Start fighting critical infrastructure for the oil fields, you don’t necessarily need to set the oil fields on fire to stop them, right.
– Continue to strike the nuclear triad, if Ukraine can show that they can reach the missile silos inside Russia, it might start to get a little sweaty here and there in the Russian leadership.
– Keep rolling uninterrupted until the back is broken – Ukraine has the capability, and the only reason for calm periods is that they have been stopped by us.
Trump will soon scream and accuse Ukraine of the war, and Putin will threaten with nuclear weapons – Europe’s message to them should be to call someone who cares. Stubb can probably become the spokesperson for all of Europe against Russia?
Right now, I get the feeling that a planned Russian and Chinese escalation has collided with Europe waking up and Ukraine getting free rein. I can barely keep up.
First, Xi Jinping has apparently carried out a major purge of officers that hasn’t been done since Mao, apparently.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-xi-china-military-officials-purge
In the Baltic Sea region, it’s almost total chaos, here’s the latest from the past week –
– The USA has a CAG off the coast of Denmark.
– RU is sending its hunter-killer submarine there, they have three in the Northern Fleet, all of which have left port.
– A Russian ship for drone surveillance is moving in the Baltic Sea.
– The power outage on Gotland may not have been anything, but it’s worth mentioning.
– Russian tugs and other ships have moved over submarine cables again in several places. None have been cut, but it’s a reasonable assumption.
– A German submarine was adrift for a day.
– US aircraft to sniff radiation from nuclear weapons have been moving in circles in the Baltic Sea.
– Some regular violations with flights and drones from RU over various countries.
I have posted all this on my Bluesky if you want the links, aunsson is good by the way.
The Belarusian defense forces have conducted several major exercises, with Wagner in particular training them for a few years.
However, it is quite clear that we will not engage in “deterrence” in the Baltics, even though Poland is conducting an exercise with 16 NATO countries and 34,000 participants.
No risk in the Baltics but significant risk in Poland – to me, the way risk and probability of something happening are managed does not add up at all.
The worst-case scenario I envision is that, by Russian standards, competent forces arrive a week before the offensive starts wherever it is directed, and if it were the Baltics, Russian locking measures would follow after a few days with minefields in Suwalki and the Baltic Fleet so the West does not have time to deploy forces.
But now I believe the risk of Putin daring to attack Europe decreased significantly after our “show of force/deterrence” against Trump recently, we showed some teeth and claws.
However, I also do not believe that Europe is trying to lure Russia into the Baltics to strike them, so our lack of threshold effect has another explanation; we are not following the drawn-up plans at all right now, which the Balts have loudly complained about.
I am not so sure that Europe would go to war with Russia over the Baltics; the latest discussion is that a majority of European citizens do not want that, and we are democracies where everything should be voted on.
And this is before Russian influence kicks in to delay and disrupt all decisions.
At the same time, I believe the risk of increased pressure on Ukraine has risen because it is still risk-free for Putin, and above all, a future where Europe strengthens Ukraine after a ceasefire is a worst-case scenario for Russia – that seems to be the crux of the matter.
It is clear that RU is building up for offensive operations at the Dnieper and the southern front, they have introduced new capabilities, including possibly Chechen forces (which may indeed be special forces…), as well as ammunition and fuel.
One scenario I have long pondered but is not very likely is if Hungary were to get adventurous – Orban dismissed 100 senior officers early in the war, and we already know that they mobilized once in the war to enter their historical areas in Ukraine, but then things probably went poorly for Putin.
In Transnistria, RU has already built up capabilities – two battalions in total is incorrect, there are probably plenty of militias, special forces, and other units they have smuggled in over time.
If RU can close Ukraine’s land border to Poland, they would gain a lot, and an attack from Belarus and then north from Transnistria and Hungary would, if nothing else, be very difficult for Ukraine to handle.
I think this is beyond what the West would intervene in, and if Poland’s defense forces are tied up against Belarus, there may be a risk of success.
Moreover, it would be disastrous for Hungary, but what do they have to lose, the oil has been shut off, right?
A final all-or-nothing scenario where the upside is that Ukraine falls before Europe gets organized, so we end up with a fait accompli and don’t have to do anything?
Worth a try?
Just as I was glued to the Trump-Zelensky meeting, I check deep state every day and follow this with great interest now, hoping the clock is still at 11:59.
If Russia’s back is broken, they will take the full blow, and maybe China can be persuaded to back off. Then we should have 20-30 good years after that, right?
Just looking at the level of sabotage in Europe is enough to understand where we are heading.
Our strongest card – Ukraine.
They can bring down Russia, causing the country to turn inward into chaos.
As for the new areas under Plan B, integration according to the Swedish model applies – the second generation is fully integrated into our culture and traditions, so it only takes a few years for the areas to no longer be particularly Russian👍
I think Finland is becoming increasingly assertive in its rhetoric and I have a feeling that they are a bit of a “secret buyer” for Ukraine since the start of the war.
They have kept quiet about what they provide, and Ukraine never gets to thank them, but after the war, I believe we will discover that Finland is the country that has given the most of all.
They quickly realized that the weaker Russia becomes, the better for them – simply well-used tax money.
They should also have already embraced warfare in 2025, unlike the rest of us.
Furthermore, the strategic attacks on Crimea are almost pre-emptive now, they have changed somewhat in nature – I believe Zelensky is still following my battle plan even though it has been a while 😍😍
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https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social
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ADS
As you have probably noticed, we now have ads on the site. The ads and their placement are managed by Google, which also tries to optimize it automatically. We will let it run for a few weeks to see where it ends up. Some placements feel quite large, but it might get better.
We will then post a survey to hear what you think, if there are too many ads, if there are certain placements that are particularly annoying, etc. so we can make any adjustments after that.
Russian losses 2028-08-029
850 KIA
4 Tanks
6 AFVs
61 Artillery systems
2 MLRS
1 Anti-Aircraft system
414 UAVs
28 Cruise missiles
109 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
SLAVA UKRAINI
AFU reports:
139 Combat clashes
84 aviation strikes
154 KAB
5,177 artillery shelling (86 from MLRS)
5,770 kamikaze drones
139 (combat clashes) is among the lowest readings in the past four months, there has been a downward trend since May, but we have had a few individual days down to 137, 138, and 139 during that period.
Looking back from the beginning of the year, there have been several days with even lower numbers, between 85-95, and the average since the new year is 162. Over a slightly longer period, it is not particularly low right now, even though the trend is pointing downwards.
It seems that Ukraine sent quite a lot across the border but hasn’t seen much results other than this from Oryol.
“Explosions reported in Oryol, Russia, following a drone attack. Local residents say a fire broke out.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lxilmyo36224
“More from the explosions currently happening in Orel, Russia.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lxilq77puc24
“Approximate flight routes of our UAVs:
🔴 Red arrow – directions of attack UAVs;
🔵 Blue arrow – directions of jet UAVs;
All information about the routes is taken from Russian sources. DroneBomber map.”
https://bsky.app/profile/babayagafella.bsky.social/post/3lxisdnwuud2q
Sounds good until you read, USA is responsible for the funding, along with NATO countries Denmark, Norway, and the Netherlands. Wondering how much of it the USA is responsible for? Shipping costs?
But it’s definitely better than nothing, and long-range robots sound good!
“The White House has given the green light for a weapon package worth $825 million to Ukraine, reports AP. The package includes, among other things, navigation systems and 3,350 long-range robots, which are considered to be strategically important in the war against Russia. USA is responsible for the funding, along with NATO countries Denmark, Norway, and the Netherlands.
The Trump administration has previously approved several Ukraine packages with equipment to maintain existing weapons, but this seems to be the first major weapon package announced by the administration, writes CNN.”
https://omni.se/usa-godkanner-forsta-stora-vapenpaket-till-ukraina/a/AvoWWr
“Putin connoisseur: He relies on Trump’s ignorance
Donald Trump does not have many Russia experts around him in the White House, and Putin has been able to exploit that. That’s what journalist Catherine Belton, author of the award-winning book ‘Putin’s People’, tells SVT News.
– Putin has relied on the ignorance in Trump’s team.
The White House lacks knowledge of what the Kremlin actually means by its statements. This explains Trump’s excited reactions when Putin hints at concessions – that the Russian president not engaging with what they would entail means in Kremlin language that there won’t be any, according to Belton.
So far, Putin seems to have succeeded in misleading Trump, who believes that the meetings have led to successes despite it all being ‘a circus consisting of nothing,’ she adds.”
https://omni.se/putinkannare-han-forlitar-sig-pa-trumps-okunnighet/a/eM3014
Buffer zone is completely OK, but then it should be located on the Russian side, they are the attackers and it is them the zone is intended to protect against.
Sources: Europe considers “buffer zone” in Ukraine
European leaders are considering a 40-kilometer “buffer zone” on the Ukrainian front line as part of a peace agreement. This is reported by five European diplomats to Politico.
The Kremlin has welcomed the idea, which the political site describes as a last resort to achieve the fragile peace that NATO desperately seeks after nearly four years of war.
It is unclear if Kyiv would accept it, as it would likely involve territorial concessions, and it is uncertain if European peacekeeping troops can maintain the buffer zone.
Jim Townsend, former responsible for European and NATO affairs at the Pentagon during President Obama’s term, describes it as Europeans “fumbling”.
– The Russians are not afraid of Europeans. If (Europe) thinks that some British and French observers would prevent them from marching into Ukraine, they are mistaken.”
https://omni.se/kallor-europa-overvager-buffertzon-i-ukraina/a/qP0EWO
Yes, the Russians are free to establish a buffer zone wherever they want, and how deep they want. They can even bring in their own buddies as peacekeeping forces, as long as they stick to maintaining the buffer zone and only that (or go even deeper into Muscovy).
“The Ukrainian Military Intelligence (HUR) has released a video showing a drone attack on a Russian Project 21631 Buyan-M corvette ship, capable of carrying Kalibr cruise missiles. The footage shows two strikes: the first hitting the ship’s radar, and the second impacting its side”
https://bsky.app/profile/tatarigami.bsky.social/post/3lxjblh3pek2a
👍
“Everything is fine, Rashka is burning… Sweet dreams.”
https://bsky.app/profile/babayagafella.bsky.social/post/3lxj2n7uukk2i
“Security guarantees in the event of peace in Ukraine are the big question as EU’s defense ministers meet in Copenhagen today, reports Ekot.
During recent top meetings, Article 5-like guarantees have been discussed, similar to NATO’s collective defense. However, it is unclear which countries are willing to contribute what, and the hope is that this will be clarified through today’s discussions.
The USA has ruled out sending soldiers to Ukraine but is open to supporting peacekeeping forces in a different way. According to Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, Sweden can contribute with aerial surveillance and naval capacity.”
https://omni.se/eu-s-forsvarsministrar-mots-for-att-pressa-ryssland/a/dRXz8w
Off-Topic, Sweden
First considered whether I should post this as a comment to the post Organised crime in Sweden…
“Around 180 regional politicians have let taxpayers cover costs for travel, hotels, dinners, and parties related to party events during 2025. This is shown in an investigation commissioned by DN.
The newspaper has examined receipts submitted for expenses related to the national party day, that is congress, national assembly, or national meetings. The Green Party, Left Party, and Sweden Democrats are not included in the investigation because they have not had any party days yet.
The Christian Democrats stand out in the investigation. In the names of almost 90 politicians, invoices have been sent for travel, hotels, and food in connection with the Christian Democrat days in April.”
https://omni.se/regionpolitiker-festar-for-skattepengar-kd-overrepresenterat/a/xmLyvn
Wondering why DN felt they couldn’t continue until the end of this year and include all parliamentary parties, or why they didn’t include their data from last year.
Maybe they have planned a follow-up later? So they can reuse the same article idea several times?
If Hungary attacks Ukraine, I believe other EU countries will take the opportunity to really smack Hungary hard. They have been furious with the Hungarians for a long time now – for over a decade. Not so much for what they do in Hungary, I think, but for their antics in Brussels.
Can Sweden really lock the JAS Gripen?
Then we would, just like some other countries, stop what we have sold from being used. I believe the Minister for Export Trade, Dosa, would object.
‘Engulfed in flames’ — Ukraine strikes Russia’s railway infrastructure, fuel tanks, HUR source says, releases video. Ukraine damaged Russian railway infrastructure and fuel tanks during a strike on the Tver railway on Aug. 28, a source in Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) told the Kyiv Independent.
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-strikes-russias-railway-infrastructure-fuel-tanks-in-attack-video/
Hungary sues EU over using frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine. The lawsuit challenges last year’s decision by the Council of the EU to allocate military assistance to Ukraine through the European Peace Facility (EPF), the bloc’s chief defense aid tool.
https://kyivindependent.com/hungary-sues-eu-over-using-frozen-russian-assets-to-aid-ukraine/
Europe boosts artillery ammunition production sixfold in 2 years, NATO chief says. The production “is expected to reach 2 million rounds by the end of this year,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said.
https://kyivindependent.com/europe-boosts-ammunition-production-sixfold-in-2-years-nato-chief-says/
Finally, it’s starting to look like something!
Unfortunately, one tends to rely on their own opinions, hoping that the warehouses will soon be full so that everything can be shipped directly to Ukraine.
Russia reportedly flying drones over US arms routes in Germany.European and U.S. military officials have been increasingly concerned over the flights in the German state of Thuringia, even as Russian sabotage operations in Europe declined in 2025, the New York Times reported.
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-reportedly-flying-drones-over-us-arms-routes-in-germany/
I heard that SAAB has developed a solution to the drone problem.
Berätta mer!
Or, to honor the main character of the blog: care to extrapolate on that!?
“Saab is now launching Nimbrix, a robot developed to counter the growing threat from drones, according to a press release from the defense giant. The ground-based robot is described as a cost-effective ‘drone killer’ with a range of five kilometers and technology that enables it to autonomously navigate towards its target after launch.
The missile can detonate in the air and target both individual drones and swarms.
‘Nimbrix is our response to the unmanned aerial threats that have escalated in recent years,’ says Stefan Öberg, head of the Missile Systems business unit.
Saab expects to commence deliveries in 2026.”
https://omni.se/saabs-nya-dronardodare-ska-mota-eskalerat-hot/a/yEWKGr
https://www.saab.com/sv/newsroom/press-releases/2025/saab-lanserar-robot-mot-dronare
NOTE! Nothing secret considering that SAAB themselves have published a press release.
Thank you, now I am eagerly waiting for you to extrapolate a bit on the information! 🙂
😂
Deadlines, delusions, and ballistic missiles: Trump’s theater of peace talks with Putin
The U.S. and European leaders are continuing to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine, claiming that a breakthrough has been made in peace talks. At the same time, Russia has been storming the front in Ukraine’s east and bombarded Kyiv with ballistic missiles on Aug. 28, killing at least 23 people and damaging the EU delegation headquarters. Experts agree that the so-called peace talks are a farce, with no party expecting any meaningful results.
https://kyivindependent.com/as-ukraine-endures-new-attacks-western-leaders-pursue-peace-talks-with-little-hope-of-progress/
“⚡️ Trump is a ‘Russian asset,’ Portuguese president says. Questions about Trump’s possibly shady relationship with Russia and the country’s security services have long swirled.”
https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3lxjo7syv3s2y
https://kyivindependent.com/trump-is-a-russian-asset-portuguese-president-says/
Off-Topic, Customs
“EU Commission Vice President Teresa Ribera says that the EU must be ready to terminate the customs agreement with the USA if Donald Trump continues to pressure the union to change its digital legislation, writes FT.
– We can be friendly, polite, and try to solve problems, but we cannot accept anything, she tells the business newspaper.
At the same time, she urges the union to be brave and resist pressure from the USA to change technology laws.”
https://omni.se/eu-topp-vi-maste-vara-redo-att-riva-upp-tullavtalet/a/al6e0A
“✈️💣 Ukrainian aviation struck Russians in Tyotkino, Kursk region!”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lxjpcx54gc2y
“👀🚫 In the Khabarovsk Krai, there are queues at gas stations due to a shortage of gasoline.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lxjqdm25rk2y
Off-Topic, Swedish politics
“The Sweden Democrats increased the most of all parties during the summer. This is shown by the combination of Omnipoll, Omnis, and Demoskop, after four opinion polls have been conducted in August following a summer break.
Since the last June poll, SD has increased from 19.6 to 20.6 percent. As the Moderates decreased during the same period, SD is now clearly the largest party in the government coalition.”
https://omni.se/sa-ar-opinionslaget-just-nu-se-siffrorna-i-nya-omnipoll/a/L5E3bJ