In 2026, it is only Ukraine that masters it, but RU has learned the lesson the hard way and built a strategic reserve after the format that exists up against the Baltics. They have traditional capabilities/warfare paired with drone weapons, and some protection against drones.
These are units trained by veterans in Ukraine and equipped with new equipment, but they probably lack the in-depth acute work experience of being hunted prey in Ukraine, so they still have a bit of fighting spirit left before they die. It’s a Russian thing not to pair war-weary victims with new recruits, so there is a risk of transferring the knowledge of how hellish Russian outdoor life is – it must be self-learned slowly so that one has served as expendable ammunition before understanding the extent of having a lifespan of less than two days on the active front, ideally it should take two days.
Probably, they have relied a bit on letter agencies and ensured that there are enough Special Operations Forces capabilities in this new military district.
In the Leningrad military district, established 2 years ago or so, there should be under 100,000 fully equipped units – mechanized with artillery and armored vehicles. It is likely that the command structure is in place, along with rear support, storage, and logistics.
Now I don’t remember what we wrote, but there were some AC and divisions that formed the backbone, I believe, and we have seen very few new T90M or BMP-4 at the fronts.
In addition, Russia has its strategic drone weapons and then front-line drone weapons that they decided to significantly expand following the Ukrainian model – both accessible to the Baltics.
They have been able to calmly build all the radar and all the launch pads they need in Belarus because Ukraine is not allowed to engage them. The USA has also now approached Belarus, making it even more difficult for Ukraine to act preventively in the area.
Those 23 drones entering Poland were also to test navigation with SIM cards from the EU.
There is no shortage of warnings from Ukraine that Russia is up to something fishy with the focus on the Baltics – and recently all internet has been cut off in Russia.
Everyone wants to believe that it’s because Putin is running between the ditches to escape the lynch mob, but it’s more likely that it has to do with an escalation.
In Ukraine, RU is not making progress, they understand that, so we probably have never had a higher risk for the Baltics than now.
Hungary cannot open an attack vector down into Ukraine due to the election, and Transnistria will soon be lost to RU as well.
As soon as Ukraine’s interceptor drones are integrated with the Balts and in Poland, it’s over, and the German brigade is in the process of regrouping to Lithuania, but apparently, it will take all of 2026 to drive those miles on the road.
If you, like me, follow the war, you know that Ukraine has now fought larger targets in the Pskov area three times, which is probably a job commissioned by the Balts because it is not a base area for capabilities with the final destination being Ukraine at all.
Personally, I don’t think Europe should take any chances, but I also understand that no country in Europe is ready to sacrifice a brigade of its country’s best in the Baltics (yet).
A first Geran drone with a warhead entered Lithuania from Belarus and did not explode in any high-value target at all, but out in the countryside, not because it ran out of fuel – a first small test, it was NOT detected by the defense forces and was NOT shot down.
You may remember that Poland declared a no-fly zone that RU now tested to see if it didn’t work.
The USA is pushing all buttons at once and is not our friend – we are alone with the Baltics, which is actually quite reasonable.
The USA has managed to keep the dollar strong in the Iran war, but interest rates are rising, which is also why Trump is trying to calm the markets in words, even though half of the USA’s special forces capability is heading towards the conflict area, so it couldn’t be more obvious what they are planning.
Since a major stock market correction is looming, I think it is justified to ask the question – how will Europe handle a Russian opening of a conflict in the Baltics? Little green men or them entering and securing an area?
Belgium turned out to be pro-Russian, as did the President of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Spain – a common EU response is out of the question.
France, Germany, UK, and the Nordic countries remain, and we are evidently not proactive, which still surprises me, but we recently got proof that it is because we are afraid.
Kier Starmer in the UK has big problems staying in power, but the defense forces seem to be on track at least.
France is training the Foreign Legion in Poland with UA instructors, I don’t know how many regiments.
Will these countries decide to retake territory in Southeast Estonia or Northeast Latvia by force?
Will we declare war on Russia if the USA threatens to cut off all LNG for us?
Do we have robots to indirectly combat Russia with, do we dare to target objectives in Russia when Putin threatens with nuclear weapons?
Are we prepared to endure a Geran and robot rain like we now see in the Middle East?
All of these are questions that should be the only thing European leaders are discussing now because IF Russia achieves even the slightest success in the Baltics and Europe projects weakness and indecision, then Europe will become the target for the upcoming financial crisis.
You can now see how the financial markets react to the slightest thing, and the USA is constantly adjusting, it will be the same for us, and we may also face soaring interest rates and capital flight.
There is also a new migrant crisis on the rise, a new 2015, and the EU is pointing a very big formal finger at Russia. I am a bit annoyed that I didn’t manage to publish that post before the EU pointed towards Russia, which I started working on when Spain declared amnesty.
You can be completely sure that Russia is heading towards a loss in Ukraine, but that does not automatically mean that Europe will come out unscathed.
The USA has just put new pressure on Ukraine to give up land and agree to a ceasefire.
Europe has exactly one chance to come out of this unscathed, and that is to meet it resolutely and violently in the Baltics when the day comes.
If we don’t, a financial crisis will wash over us, and we will have several government crises throughout Europe with the USA keeping us on a tight leash and sabotaging everything.
If we show weakness, everyone will try to eat us from the inside.
I believe that Ukraine can put the puzzle together themselves (because Zelensky has a paid subscription to Johan No.1) and that they are therefore ready to venture on a violent offensive this year.
At some point this fall, I don’t know when, the interceptor drones have been delivered, and the German brigade is fully regrouped in the Baltics, but before that, it’s high risk.
We probably have SOF in the Baltics now but should of course regroup our mech brigades there pronto.
Since this is a new conflict arena, everyone believes they will come out as winners, and then we will know how it went after a while. We actually have so much information already that we can establish the following:
-RU has experience of combat under FPV and they have their own drone weapon that Ukraine does not like at all.
-Europe has zero experience of combat under FPV and we have not yet absorbed this experience from Ukraine, we have started it a bit slowly.
-Europe does not have its own drone weapon, and our artillery is within RU drone range.
-Europe has top aviation at 10-15 bases in Europe that can be reached with Gerand drones.
-Europe has top aviation but probably no large stocks of missiles or JDAMs.
-RU units have shown they can endure quite difficult conditions in the Ukraine war.
-RU has Geran cassettes on numerous ships from the shadow fleet surrounding Europe.
-RU can send 500 Gerans towards targets in Europe 3-4 times a week where we probably won’t shoot down many.
-Europe’s military leaders have already understood that our mech units will be droned out in the Baltics, it was discussed a while ago if you remember in a military game.
-UA interceptor drones are probably under production for us as well, but most of it has probably been sent to MENA. BUT!!!!! It’s not just a drone – it’s a UNIT where different capabilities work together. We are not there at all yet – far from it.
-The Baltics have 6,500 in their standing defense forces and can mobilize an additional 40,000-100,000.
-RU has scouted every darn bridge and weak point in our transport networks in the Baltics, Poland, and Germany.
-Belarus has carried out some kind of mobilization and many smaller exercises.
-RU’s Baltic Fleet will be cautious because Ukraine can drone it away or it will be sacrificed if RU assesses that UA will drone it at the dock – interesting to consider that scenario.
-EU cannot agree to send 90 billion to Ukraine – all decisions regarding operations in the Baltics will not be able to pass a vote.
-Decisions to send units to the Baltics will need to be made in each country’s parliaments.
-Primorsk is completely knocked out, and Europe boards and stops the shadow fleet.
Conclusion –
The southern part of Estonia and the northeastern part of Latvia are undefended, so if RU would like to go in and take some miles of terrain to then go on the defensive, it is fully feasible without warning – the units are already in the area, and we could all wake up to that news tomorrow.
An “little green men” scenario would actually just give Europe the chance to move the brigades into the Baltics, so a greater likelihood that they take terrain and then threaten us with everything as usual.
When the German brigade is in Lithuania and the FPV drones are in place, the Suwalki Gap cannot be closed, but today it can be closed – a substantial screen of interceptors is needed, but only for a limited period when the mech brigades are to be moved through.
If the decision is made to close the Suwalki Gap, then the ambition level is to conquer the Baltics, and then more units are needed than what is in the area today. Even though the drone weapon allows the use of fewer maneuver brigades.
Conclusion 2 will be that if we see any movement of Russian capabilities into Belarus or the Pskov area, then they have chosen war but that brigades are enough. No buildup like in 2022 is needed.
A lot of heavy equipment is already in place in hidden depots, so we should also keep an eye on soft vehicle convoys.
First of all, it is good for Ukraine if we get involved, and I think it’s time to really hit Russia hard.
And secondly, UA will not be able to give up much to us in 2026 if they are to emerge victorious from their own war.
Exciting to say the least, and likewise if we see troop movements from us into the Baltics, then we chose peace. Because the only thing RU wouldn’t be able to handle is 10 mech brigades dug in the forests in eastern Baltics, but they must arrive before RU attacks.
I have decided not to believe that Trump is playing a huge double game to exhaust US capability against Iran so that Russia and China can rise. Occam’s razor applies, and Israel has pushed for action against Iran, so the reasons are legitimate.
But Trump has agreed with Russia on several issues, and it is highly likely that the USA will not lift a finger if RU jumps into the Baltics.
Just like the bank, the USA is not our friend, and the USA is now doing things that benefit them – if they wanted a full-on Cold War with a weak and divided Europe buying security from them at five times the market price, it is not unlikely that they are striving for that again. After all, Roosevelt made a significant effort during the Yalta Conference to get there, so nothing was random, he had to make himself unfriendly with Churchill, sacrifice Poland, and curry favor with Stalin to get there.
The next area to be invaded if the Baltics kicks off is naturally Svalbard, and the Ukrainian drones can’t reach there at all. RU currently has all capabilities in the Northern Fleet, and maybe one brigade would be enough?
Marine SOF for the Northern Fleet and Pacific Fleet have at least been withdrawn from Ukraine.
Consider here that the USA will yawn and fall asleep over that too, maybe even hope that we ask them to fortify Greenland?
The risk is currently extremely high in my strong opinion, even if Ukraine will perform miracles in 2026.
Then we have Taiwan, and China also has a window to deal with there because once the calm settles over Iran and the USA sails its fleet to the waters around Taiwan, that window is closed.
The book on which I base all my prophecies has the following timeline:
-Russia attacks Europe to lock us in.
-Iran rises and attacks Israel, Israel is completely overrun because as soon as they start to falter, every MENA country decides that the chance to obliterate Israel must not be missed.
-China initiates war in Asia, and our current global conflict is mainly fought in Asia between China and the USA because the two previous conflicts were distractions that China paid for.
With small adjustments, you can see that we have already reached 2/3, and Europe as a collective has chosen to prepare almost not at all since 2022, even though we should have started already in 2007 when Putin gave his speech, or in 2014 when Donbass was attacked – if they haven’t read the book, do you think it could be that simple?
By the way.
There aren’t many ways to actually make the Iranian regime fall.
So if one supports Europe’s restraint and that Iran should fall, one daydreams completely unrealistically.
One must choose between a war that could have been conducted better or further mass murder by the regime until they have raped, tortured, and killed the last women showing too much hair.
Since the regime increased violence as the protests escalated, we had stopped with some kind of Afghanistan scenario where women first had to cover their entire head, then only show one eye, then no eyes at all, and finally not be allowed to leave the house because the dictatorship seems to have a particular aversion towards women.
The number of factors affected in larger conflicts like this is very high and can never be predicted.
What probably saved the USA is that Iran chose not to carry out a first strike – that is something I will ponder a lot about, and historians will eventually consider my view that China and Russia messed up badly.
If the 5th fleet had sunk in flames at the dock in a cloud of 500 robots and seven thousand shahids, and China’s and Russia’s fleets had reinforced the area, the USA would probably have howled but retracted their claws since they accounted for a large part of the fleet in the nearby region that would keep the Hormuz open. It hasn’t gone perfectly yet, but the USA is working on it.
The USA was lucky that Iran/China/Russia made the major misjudgment of our world war.
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
Russian losses 2026-03-26
High KWIA, artillery, UAVs, and soft vehicles.
AFU reports:
Ukraine has attacked an oil refinery
An oil refinery and a natural gas port in the Leningrad region of Russia were reportedly targeted in a drone attack overnight, according to reports from both Russia and social media. It remains to be seen how extensive the damage is.
“Ukrainian drones attack major oil and gas facilities in Russia’s Leningrad Oblast for second night in row”
https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-attack-major-energy-facilities-in-russias-leningrad-oblast-for-second-night-in-a-row/
Normally, it is not possible to rely solely on FIRMS; oil refineries usually also show activity during normal operations. I haven’t taken the time to check how it looked before, but there are photos and videos available, so it’s not necessary. It could also be the opposite, that fires are not visible on FIRMs, for example, if there are a lot of clouds.
“💥 Russia: Ukraine appears to have struck the Kirishi Oil Refinery complex in Leningrad region, 100km southeast of St. Petersburg. No photos/videos available at this time.”
https://bsky.app/profile/igorsushko.bsky.social/post/3mhwpl5fppc2n
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:lfxlhdtxkyczcuroq4q2umqy/bafkreiajfy4ncfmivgxv6lsnp27ihh5tic55bzj6h6lfngd5s2sov7ehte
“Ukraine war latest: Ukraine’s air defense downs 97% of Russian kamikaze drones in rare mass daytime strike”
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-ukraines-air-defense-downs-97-of-russian-kamikaze-drones-in-rare-mass-daytime-strike/
Thank you for an interesting post, Johan no 1.👍👍👍
Some thoughts: Since October/November, the war has turned in Ukraine’s favor. Starlink is one reason, but could there be more? Is there something else that Ukraine now has that it didn’t have before?
It would be interesting to know for me who is not as knowledgeable as the rest of you in military matters.
Another thing. Does Israel accept that Trump ends the war even though the old regime remains in Iran? Or is Israel content with having defeated Hezbollah in Lebanon? I think there is a lack of coherence in both the USA’s and Israel’s planning of the war.
But the Ukrainian drone strikes in Primorsk and Ust-Luga will probably determine the war in Ukraine’s favor.
I’m not quite optimistic enough to say that the tide has turned in favor of Ukraine, but we have seen tendencies that it may be starting to shift.
Since October 2023, the Russians have been advancing almost every day. It’s usually just a few hundred meters here and there, although they have also had larger successes like with Avdiivka and eventually Pokrovsk.
What we have seen recently is that Ukraine has managed to push them back in some places. Kupiansk is probably the biggest success, but they have also recaptured several villages, etc. At the same time, it is still the case that Russia continues to advance a few hundred meters almost every day.
So far, Russia is taking more land than Ukraine liberates, albeit at a slow pace, but we are seeing more and more successes from Ukraine as well.
I hope, and expect, that we will soon see a real turning point where Ukraine liberates more than they lose. This turnaround may be as slow as it has been for the Russians, but we also know that it can suddenly happen very quickly. The Russians seem eager to retreat when they encounter too much resistance. I guess it has to do with their motivation probably not being the best and the commanders starting to retreat is affecting everyone.
The reason, I believe, is a combination of Ukraine doing well with UAVs, both in terms of manufacturing and improving them, but also surely becoming much better at handling and using them smartly.
This, combined with my belief that Russia has weakened, especially in terms of replenishing with capable manpower but surely also in terms of equipment + lacking motivation.
Now the question was posed to Johan, looking forward to his analysis (perhaps the world’s best marksmanship has become even sharper?).
Good response from you MXT. Thank you.
Thank you!
👍
Thank you for today’s yellow wall! 👍
I maintain my analysis that Russia will not seriously engage in the Baltic states.
However, it is important for Russia to project a threat.
If Europe sees Russia as toothless, we wouldn’t need to fear intervening in Ukraine. We wouldn’t need to invest in our own defense either, but could give everything we have to Ukraine. As long as we believe Russia can escalate the war and attack, we must of course prepare ourselves for that.
I am convinced that Russia is content with disrupting us enough so that we don’t dare give everything we have to Ukraine. One could argue that the threat is real because even Ukraine warns that Russia could strike in the Baltics, but it’s impossible to determine if these reports are planted by Russia or if Ukraine is using them to awaken Europe.
I almost hope I am wrong. If Russia were to enter the Baltics, Europe would eventually wake up and realize that we are truly at war with Russia, and they would soon be defeated.
However, my analysis could be wrong IF China chooses to actively support Russia to enter the war OR if Trump and Putin are so close that Putin knows Trump will actively help prevent Europe from defending the Baltics.
I agree with you that the US wouldn’t lift a finger, but the question is whether they will actively oppose us and if Putin is so confident that it will happen.
—-
If Russia were to send 500 drones a day to Europe, they wouldn’t be able to send 500 drones into Ukraine. If they could manage to send twice as many Shahed/Geran drones a day into Ukraine, they would presumably do so.
I got curious about the costs of Shahed/Geran.
There are various estimates of the manufacturing cost of a Shahed/Geran, ranging from $20,000 to $80,000. The latter is what I have seen most often, but if we calculate at $50,000, then 1,000 a day would cost $50 million USD. Multiplying that by 365 gives $18 billion USD. Russia’s military budget is around $140-150 billion USD from the last figures I saw.
1,000 drones a day would then account for nearly 13% of the budget. I don’t think Russia can afford that.
On the other hand, they may have reduced the price to manufacture them for $10,000, which would change things. But the question remains, if they could send more into Ukraine, why do they refrain from doing so?
When it comes to projecting threats, deploying troops and equipment near the Baltic states works, as there is a reason to have a reserve (also, they never know if the Baltics might get bold if they see Russia as weak). But when it comes to saving drones, whose production capacity is unknown, there isn’t quite the same reason.
Furthermore, if Russia is truly on the brink of collapse, it is not impossible that we could see them pull an Iran and in a last desperate attempt, send drones into Europe to make us think the cost is too high and force Ukraine to surrender.
It seems like it could almost work for Iran, as suddenly the US wants to make a deal. A deal they probably could have had before the war if they had started by threatening war instead of directly starting it.
Thank you for what I consider a very good analysis (which is very surprising). 👍
Thank you! 👍
👍
Another thing. The drone meetings in Vyborg are very close to Finland. To reach Lake Saimaa, one must pass through Vyborg. On the Finnish side, there are three locks, on the Russian side, five which Finland leases from Russia. Unique. Yes, it resembles the British lease of Hong Kong or the Portuguese lease of Macao. But it works well between Finland and Russia, so the Finns have free access to the lake, which is the fourth largest in Europe. But as I said, the locks are in danger if Ukraine continues to bomb Vyborg.
Interesting!
Let’s hope the locks survive, it would be a shame to cause any trouble for Finland.
I seem to recall that the Russians have chosen to either completely or partially either inhibit the agreement or limit it. However, it was a while ago that I heard the channel being mentioned, and it was in connection with Finland applying for NATO membership, when the Russians threatened both with the other and the end of the world, and a little more.
Better if Finland took back Viborg if the war ends well. With Finnish architecture and design, Viborg would become as beautiful as Saint Petersburg 🇫🇮
One thing that I’m pondering that I can’t quite figure out, and that you also touch upon in the post as well as in many previous ones. Regarding:
“…the only thing RU wouldn’t be able to handle is 10 mech brigades buried in the forests of eastern Baltics but they would have to arrive before RU attacks.”
How would these 10 mech brigades survive drone warfare if placed in eastern Baltics? Or are they just deterrents in terms of showing some determination/putting mech weight behind the words?
At least 40 percent of Russia’s oil export capacity has been halted due to repeated Ukrainian attacks, reports Reuters.
During the night, a Ukrainian drone crashed in an industrial area near one of Russia’s largest oil refineries in the northern parts of the country, the news agency writes. A total of 20 drones were shot down, according to the governor.
Strategically important ports on the Baltic Sea, such as Björkö and Ust-Luga, have temporarily halted the loading of crude oil and other export goods due to Ukraine’s attacks.
Trump Approval Rating
Regardless of whether Johan is right, that Trump would do what is good for the USA (and not as I suspect, what is good for Trump) it does not seem that the American population is particularly satisfied with his efforts.
Now I think we will soon see the curves flatten out, can’t really think of anything else he could come up with that could worsen it further. On the other hand, you never know where you have him, he can surely surprise!
The Economist, -18%
The New York Times report gives -16%.
Saw that Fox News released a survey as well. It’s a bit interesting. They are generally pro-Trump but they report the highest dissatisfaction of all with 59%. However, they also have the highest percentage of satisfied.
-18% is the total.
Interesting that it is the Republicans and the independents who have become more dissatisfied towards the end while the Democrats’ attitude seems unchanged (albeit at a very low level). Could be a sign that there is still room for decline if the Republicans’ dissatisfaction continues to grow.
Trump
“German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius criticizes Donald Trump regarding the warfare in Iran. During a meeting in Australia, he expresses concern that the USA seems to have no strategy in Iran.
– What worries me the most about the war is that there was no consultation, that there is no clear strategy or clear goal,” he says according to ABC Australia.
He is also upset that the American president called NATO “cowards” because the alliance is not helping the USA in the Strait of Hormuz. Pistorius reminds that Trump’s administration has previously urged European countries to focus more on Europe.
– Now it sounds different.” https://omni.se/tyska-kritiken-mot-trump-finns-ingen-strategi/a/oEEMVg
Iran
“The oil price is rising on Thursday morning after conflicting signals from Iran regarding the willingness to end the war, which in practice has closed the Strait of Hormuz and increased concerns about a global energy crisis.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi states that Tehran is considering a US proposal for a ceasefire in the Persian Gulf, Reuters reports. At the same time, the country denies that any talks are ongoing and that there are no intentions for talks to de-escalate the conflict.
Shortly after 7 o’clock, Brent crude oil stands at $104 per barrel after falling 2 percent yesterday, while WTI crude oil is trading just above $92.
At the same time, the White House claims that peace talks are ongoing – something Iran rejects, while the country sets its own conditions, including control over the strategic waterway.
“Even though the US is clearly seeking a way out, neither Iran nor Israel seem interested in a quick solution,” says Sparta Commodities senior analyst Philip Jones-Lux in a comment.”
https://omni.se/oljan-stiger-efter-motstridiga-signaler-fran-teheran/a/zOO0l5
“The USA and Iran continue to say different things when it comes to negotiations about a ceasefire. The USA has submitted a proposal for an agreement and according to Donald Trump, negotiations are ongoing between the countries.
Iran pushes back against the claims. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says on state TV that submitted proposals are not the same as negotiations.
The American president claims that Iran’s leaders do not openly dare to say that they are in dialogue with the USA.
– They really want to reach an agreement, but they are afraid of being killed by their own people. They are also afraid of being killed by us, he says according to Reuters.”
https://omni.se/trump-iran-vill-ha-avtal-men-ar-radda-for-att-dodas/a/8ppPJ2
“Military personnel put together a two-minute long video montage of the biggest, most successful attacks against Iran every day, to be presented to Donald Trump. Several American sources report this to NBC News.
One of the sources describes the video update as ‘clips of things being blown up’. Typically, they tend to focus on the successes of the USA and not particularly on Iran’s actions, according to the sources.
The video montage is not the only information the president receives in his daily briefing. However, some of his allies worry that he does not get, or absorb, a comprehensive picture of the war. The sources also say that the video briefing makes Trump more frustrated about the news coverage. He is said to have asked why the news media does not pay more attention to what he sees in the clips.
The White House denies the reports, stating that Trump expects all his advisors to tell it like it is.”
https://omni.se/kallor-trump-far-hopklipp-av-irankriget-varje-dag/a/m00Kyp
“Iran has escalated its attacks against Israel and neighboring countries during Thursday morning. Israeli media report about seven attacks during Thursday forenoon and the air raid sirens have sounded over large parts of Israel. Several people have been injured, including in Kafr Qasim near Tel Aviv when parts of a cluster bomb hit, writes TT.
Bahrain and Kuwait have also reported Iranian attacks. Two people have been killed and several injured after an Iranian missile hit Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates.
The attacks come after a night of Israeli strikes against Iran. According to the Israeli military, a senior commander in the Revolutionary Guard was killed, and the USA states that over 10,000 targets have been hit during the war, writes TT.”
https://omni.se/nya-iranska-attacker-mot-israel-flera-skadade/a/bOOkBB
Yes, it has been calm for a few days but this morning it was actually quite scary.
Off-Topic
Is that why we haven’t heard much from SD lately about shutting down Public Service? 😄
Could it be as simple as PS focusing more on those leading the country and not as much on the opposition, and therefore being considered left-leaning? Or have they perhaps felt/become strongly pressured to change?
“The accusations of a left-dominated public service are false. This is stated by two debaters from the trade union think tank Katalys in DN Debatt.
According to them, public service has taken clear steps to the right. They have analyzed the content of SVT’s Agenda for six months.
Conservative, bourgeois, or liberal representatives received 70 percent of the speaking time compared to the left’s 30. Among politicians, the government coalition accounted for two-thirds. Right-wing opinion leaders received three-quarters of the speaking time.
“So, Sweden’s leading state-funded social and debate program consists largely of right-wing commentators commenting on a right-wing government’s policies,” write the debaters.”
https://omni.se/katalys-hogertyckare-favoriseras-i-svt/a/BxxMww
Katalys is definitely a truth-teller!
They are probably about as neutral truth-tellers as Bulletin, they both go hand in hand but on opposite sides of the road! 😉
The survey was not conducted by Katalys themselves, but by KvantAB.
I once worked as a statistician at a government agency. Occasionally worked as an internal consultant on such issues and related ones such as evaluating various projects. Sometimes an external consultant was hired for the latter. There was a huge difference in quality among them. Some had no idea how to satisfy the perceived wishes of the client.
Then there is a difference between placing some trust in news reporting and placing trust in surveys/analyses.
The US Department of Defense is considering redirecting military aid that was supposed to go to Ukraine to the Middle East instead, according to three sources cited by the Washington Post.
This includes air defense systems that NATO allies of the US had previously purchased to send to Ukraine.
The Pentagon’s consideration to send weapons to the Middle East instead is due to a large quantity of advanced weapons being used in the conflict against Iran. No decision has been made, the newspaper writes.
This is really bad, but is anyone really surprised? Trump does everything to prevent Ukraine from getting a victory over Russia.
As for Iran, they should be liberated from the regime they have today and become a modern democratic country, but the question is whether a thorough impact analysis was really conducted before starting to bomb.
“⚡ UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has authorized British military personnel to seize Russian shadow fleet vessels operating in UK waters.”
https://united24media.com/latest-news/uk-moves-to-strike-russian-shadow-fleet-vessels-operating-in-its-waters-17281
😂 These are the drone routes Russians shows on its channels… They don’t want to admit the failures of their air defense at all.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mhxazwf4pc2t
🇪🇺🇺🇦 Zelensky: Providing Ukraine with a loan is a position agreed upon by all EU leaders at the end of 2025. The alternative to this step is a question for the EU today. If they do not unblock it, we hope for an alternative, otherwise the Ukrainian army will be underfunded.
The production of drones – long-range, interceptor drones, as well as air defense systems – will be underfunded, because we allocate money from there for both European air defense systems and American RAS-3 missiles. This is a risk for everyone. This is a risk for European security.
🔴 BREAKING: Ryska styrkor attackerade Dnipro och skadade en höghusbyggnad. Preliminärt skadades minst fem personer, enligt lokala myndigheter.
https://bsky.app/profile/united24media.com/post/3mhxaeawjlc2m
“❗️🤬 Just now in Dnipro, Shahed flew between buildings and fell on the bank. Before that, another enemy drone hit a high-rise building”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mhx7vqybyk2t
“🔥 “ATESH” destroyed a relay cabinet at a railway junction near Luhansk! As the partisans explain, this branch is a critical supply artery for the Russian army groups in the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions, where the most active fighting is currently underway.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mhx7qyszlk2t
👀 The Primorsk and Ust-Luga terminals, which serve as Russia’s primary export hubs, continue to burn following a massive attack earlier this week.
“A sanctioned Russian shadow fleet tanker ALTURA was hit by an unidentified drone near the Bosphorus in the Black Sea while carrying 140,000 tons of oil. The vessel sustained damage to the deck and bridge, with water entering the engine room after the incident.”
Probably need a few more months of statistics to determine the trend, but it looks like construction is starting to decrease in Russia. Alternatively, they might be importing cement instead, but that should result in higher costs.
Cold weather makes it harder to pour, so the weather may have caused some projects to be delayed. The decrease in January and February could therefore be due to the unusually cold weather in Russia this winter. At the same time, cement production shouldn’t need to decrease as it is not weather-dependent in the same way.
It could be a combination of cold weather and generally decreased demand.
“Cement production continues to crater in Russia, per Rosstat. Cement production cliffs show the construction industry in Russia is collapsing.” https://bsky.app/profile/ukrainewarpod.bsky.social/post/3mhvlnuqxmk2q
🇺🇦👀 Zelensky: We will respond to every Russian attack. The pressure in the world on Russia is decreasing. We see changes in the sanctions policy. Therefore, unlike everyone or many in the world, Ukraine has its own sanctions – long-range capabilities. The Russians must feel the pressure.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mhxd3qp4xk2k
This is how a WINNER speaks.
Now we will see what Europe does soon because this is not according to international law and everything we have heard before is important and the USA is probably exerting strong pressure right now.
Ukraine chose life
Maybe we can establish that it was actually Ukrainian drones now?
“The drones that crashed in the NATO countries Estonia and Latvia on Wednesday came from Russia but were fired by Ukraine, several media outlets report. Ukraine used the drones, which were loaded with explosives, in attacks against Russian targets in the Baltic Sea region.
They are said to have veered off course and crashed into a chimney at a power plant in Estonia and in a field in Latvia.
– It is probably a result of Russian electronic warfare that disrupts our drones. We do the same against Russian drones, says the Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko to Le Monde.
No one was injured in the drone incidents in the NATO countries, and the crashes did not result in any major material damage.”
https://omni.se/ukrainsk-expert-ryssland-som-stor-vara-dronare/a/Pddv7R
Russian attitude: nimby. A little inconsiderate towards the neighbors. Just saying.
Do we have any pictures of any of the drones?
Or the FAB bomb that was also found in Estonia?
What is the likelihood of a drone on its way to Ust Luga hitting a power plant in Estonia instead?
I admit I’m wrong when the pictures come and they are now available.
A bigger issue is that they are not shot down but no one wants to discuss that
A Russian court has stopped the Oscar-winning documentary “Mr Nobody vs Putin” from several streaming platforms in the country, writes AFP.
The film is about a teacher who secretly starts documenting how Kremlin’s war propaganda enters Russian schools.
According to the court ruling, the documentary promotes “negative attitudes” about Russia.
https://omni.se/hyllad-dokumentar-stoppas-fran-rysk-stromning/a/433Ey6
https://omni.se/a/Pddv7R
– It is likely a result of Russian electronic warfare disrupting our drones. We do the same to Russian drones, says Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko to Le Monde.
Europe is keeping up appearances. In this case, it is the United Kingdom that does not want fossil energy from the North Sea to be exploited. Better to buy from Russia or from countries around the Persian Gulf. No, that’s not right. We will save the world by refraining from using fossil energy and nuclear power. And of course, we will do that before the alternatives are ready.
One (not so) beautiful day, an even larger share than today of the voters will feel betrayed by those who currently dominate the political leadership. It will be wonderful times, or not, and the politicians and those in the media who have paved the way for the upcoming turbulence will of course be completely unaware of their responsibility. They have only worked for the greater good. Or perhaps they have strived to appear and feel good.
https://bulletin.nu/starmer-pressas-om-oljeborrning-hanvisar-till-minister
Since the oil is instead bought from another producer, the reasoning does not hold.
The same with Germany now, shut down nuclear power so fossil fuels skyrocketed instead.
The US Department of Defense is considering redirecting military aid that was supposed to go to Ukraine to the Middle East instead, according to three sources cited by the Washington Post.
This includes air defense systems that NATO allies of the US had previously purchased to send to Ukraine.
The Pentagon’s consideration to send weapons to the Middle East instead is due to a large quantity of advanced weapons being used in the warfare against Iran. No decision has been made, the newspaper reports.
The Department of Defense states that they are “ensuring that US forces and our allies have what they need to fight and win,” but they do not want to comment on the information.
Several European leaders have raised concerns that the war in the Middle East is diverting attention from the conflict in Ukraine.
It would be unfortunate if Ukraine could shoot down Russian drones.
A new level since the weapons have already been purchased and paid for.
Then Trump threatened to stop selling LNG to us as well?
Today was fun, there were many comments that needed to be answered, luckily I have finished the contract but the others need two more weeks so there is some time left.
Also received a comment on Substack about the Green Party that needs to be addressed, so the day is saved.
There was a question above that has been partly answered in two posts about the Ukrainian offensive.
So the previous two posts
“The AFU advanced to the center of Primorsky, Zaporizhia direction”
https://x.com/FreudGreyskull/status/2037122079074771279
😂😂😂 This can’t possibly be true, can it? I mean, he would have said that?
(It is completely out of the question that they would have offered him the job.)
“🫠🇺🇸🇮🇷 “I said no, thank you”:
Trump claims Iran wanted to make him supreme leader
“There has never been a head of state who wanted this job less than being the head of Iran. They say, ‘I don’t want it. We would like to make you the next supreme leader.’ No, thank you. I don’t want it.””
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mhxgqpopd22e
This is not pure money as the quote might suggest, but rather promising long-term investments in the USA (over a decade has been mentioned). The numbers are inflated by almost double as it varies between 0.6 to 1.4 trillion between countries.
“US President Trump claimed he secured $2 trillion each from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE and said attacks on those countries angered them. “They got hit. No one expected that they would be hit. This made them very angry.””
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/2037098652984922484
“❗️🇺🇦Ukrainian military personnel from the 28th Mechanized Brigade repelled a 🇷🇺Russian offensive in the Kostyantynivka direction.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mhxhgjqwks2k
One step closer to the opening of the strait!
“Iranian commander Alireza Tangsiri has been killed, according to Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, as reported by the New York Times.
Tangsiri was the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy and is said to have been killed in a “precise and deadly operation,” according to the statement. Several other high-ranking officers are reported to have been killed as well.
Alireza Tangsiri is identified as the one directly responsible for mining and blocking the Strait of Hormuz, according to Katz.”
https://omni.se/iransk-befalhavare-for-flottan-uppges-ha-dodats/a/5ppb3b
The negotiations for peace in Ukraine may be over, says Finnish President Alexander Stubb in an interview with the Norwegian VG.
After three rounds of talks, no new meetings are scheduled, and one reason for this may be the Iran war, according to Stubb, who has close contact with both Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky.
“But it could also be a halt in the negotiations because they have reached the end of the negotiation road and cannot move forward,” he told the newspaper.
The question of whether Russia should be allowed to take Ukrainian territory has been one of the difficult points, but the biggest problem, according to Stubb, is that he does not believe Russia wants peace.”
https://omni.se/stubb-fredssamtal-om-ukraina-kan-vara-over/a/rrr8kl
Sanctions violation, it can hardly be about anything other than doing business with Russia.
“On Thursday, the police conducted a raid on a ‘larger company’ in Sundsvall, according to the Police. Resources from the National Task Force are said to have been involved.
According to information to Sundsvalls Tidning, it concerns the aluminum smelter Kubal. Later, SVT Västernorrland also reports that they have information pointing to the company.
The police confirm that two people in leading positions connected to the company have been detained. Both are reasonably suspected of serious sanctions violations. The individuals are suspected at the lower level of suspicion, according to the Prosecution Authority.
Sundsvalls Tidning has contacted Kubal for a comment.”
Germany is currently mapping possible American vulnerabilities that the EU could pinpoint to influence the country. Bloomberg reports.
The EU has several possible strengths to exploit. For example, tighter regulation of tech giants such as Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta could lead to negative economic consequences for the country. European manufacturing is also important for the AI industry, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals.
In addition, European actors own American assets worth over $10 trillion.
“If Europe credibly demonstrates that scare tactics do not work, it could weaken support for Trump in Washington in the long run,” says Tobias Gehrke of the European Council on Foreign Relations to Bloomberg.
Now that Johan No.1 has woken up, he can take over the afternoon shift so I can earn some money for our livelihood!
The leadership in Tehran and the leadership in Washington seem to have the same media trainer. One doesn’t know what the other has said, so while peace is on the way, it is also on the way to escalate.
No wonder if Trump wants to become an Ayatollah in Iran!