Ukraine Frontline Review, 6 October 2026

Back to the Dominican Republic with a bang, the same bang as Ukraine apparently – they are throwing everything they have now against the Russian bastards all over the map. I’m also seeing some Ukrainian soldier accounts popping up and there’s a strong sense of morning air there, they feel the tailwind and deliver overwhelming force, not necessarily in that order.

Today there will be a review of the fronts mixed with some highlights about everything going badly for Putin, we often feel at our best when he’s sitting there in his dark room gloomily staring at the wall. A lonely little man now, knowing that far too many wrong decisions are becoming a pile of papers too big for him to even see over, even with platform shoes.

To not tire you out too much, of course Johan’s travel tips will follow after this historic travel odyssey I have undertaken to the cradle of democracy (no, it’s not Gävle).

First, I want to thank you for all the positive comments when I described the buildup ahead of this violent offensive for over a year now, the tailwind has been fresh and strong.

Draparyi recently said – “we have a spectacular hit coming,” straight from the horse’s mouth, so you can stop doubting.

They have been preparing that spectacular hit with rested and newly equipped brigades for well over a year, certainly, which is what we picked up on if you remember. When Russia was at its worst with FAB and attacks, the lines were hard to hold which consumed resources, but when Ukraine got a drone umbrella and sparse manning in the trenches, they have been able to rest, train, and re-equip everything not at the front, which we have described under a storm of backslapping, and have evidently been completely right about.

Besides the offensive strategic reserve, where just Skala is about 15,000 strong, they have thus equipped many mechanized brigades with the enormous amount of offensive materiel they have received from Europe over the past two years. We had many videos of transport trains from Europe for a while in the posts, and there were boats for amphibious combat, mine clearance, fragmentation protection, tanks, and REMO on all the old wagons that now have new weapon stations. Thousands of vehicles have quietly been delivered by Europe but not so quietly and secretly that we couldn’t reveal everything here in the thread.

The sharp-eyed might also note that Mertz has just promised “long-range ammunition” to Ukraine, you can read Taurus into that, but Germany confirms nothing which they shouldn’t either, so we have to keep hoping. You also know that our Gripens we will send soon can hang on to Taurus, right?

The worry that Ukraine is running out has been great among many, so Johan No.1’s guarantees of the opposite with a sparse home team (but in full tailwind) have not always been received as absolute truth. Johan No.1 is therefore happy that we have reached the point where you now get to see the result of this diligent and patient work by Ukraine, even though it shouldn’t have worked for them. They are absolutely legendary on all levels, almost hard to describe fairly. “The world’s best shooting” which has been the mantra since 2022 is almost an understatement, total wizard level on those guys.

Besides, they are cunning Ukrainians, so you have only seen half so far, you can be absolutely sure of that.

At Lyman, the Russians are screaming about “new rested brigades with new materiel” – i.e., they have been skimping on these newly equipped and rested brigades we wrote about a year ago.

The strategic offensive reserve has been moving around since October 2025, I think, when they urgently needed to plug the breakthrough in Pokrovsk. We enthusiastically declared after that that a tough area is just that until they arrive so we no longer had to draw big conclusions from difficult situations. Which we didn’t either after that.

The miracle at Lyman, also something we wrote about for a long time but since full OPSEC was in place, there was some doubt there too, but now Ukraine has passed Zherebets in several places even if official reporting is probably 3-4 weeks behind. The deep state guys have been threatened with mobilization if they post too much and have chosen life.

It is the 3rd Army Corps fighting in the area. A unit where many have fought since 2014, volunteers with high demand so presumably they could choose and the whole organization is permeated by professionalism with competent troop leaders at all levels. The corps commander probably started as a platoon leader or something and has worked his way up purely on merit in tough competition.

They have a direct line to the drone weapon and experiment with the latest in everything always, together with Azov they were first with sensible mechanized assaults and to capture the defense systems around Bakhmut. We sat and compared with our own experiences from conscript armored infantry and praised them if you remember. Our attacks were that we followed the training and the unknown was the goal, either it worked or it didn’t.

Ukraine’s attacks are always a flowing can of ants where they constantly adjust to what is at the target. When we should have been 3:1 in numerical superiority to have a chance to succeed, they fight at 1:3-1:5 numerical inferiority in their own attacks and rarely take heavy losses. Yes, we have seen the videos that go well but there are very many and it is supported by other information – the picture is accurate.

The 3rd AC masters the drone weapon fully, has great operational freedom and the old mantra “if you have drone superiority you fight mechanized” you have heard until you got tired of it proved true because they are now fighting mechanized.

Something big happened maybe two weeks ago, Russia started bringing in reserves to the Lyman area and then losses went up in the daily count – since Ukraine has a fully deployed drone umbrella in the area, it’s not unlikely that there has been a bloodbath on the highway up there for a few weeks.

Kuwait Highway 2.0 maybe you remember?

They are very selective with information now as OPSEC prevails, for example they have continued to drone ships in the Black Sea even if we don’t see anything anymore, and have engaged over 300 ships down there.

The goal is probably to have full fire control over Svatove to start with – a central supply hub for Luhansk/Donetsk, much of what goes from Russia down to Donetsk passes there. They are about 15 km from there so they probably already have fire control?

When that town, and Starobilsk, are like a devastated desert supply-wise, 1-2 NS roads remain outside Ukraine’s eastern border along with 1-2 railway tracks and some central transshipment points. I’m trying to find the map with the railway tracks and will get back in a later post.

When Ukraine pushed in 2022 in their Kharkiv offensive, we went through the roads, junctions, and railway tracks but unfortunately it stopped there.

Next is of course Rostov Na Don and Taganrog but this town is what comes from western Russia and goes down to the fighting units in Ukraine.

In addition, Ukraine is pressing increasingly hard in several places between northern Luhansk – Dnipro, will return in detail but progress is being made mostly everywhere even though RU is still conducting its swarm offensive.

Recently, the first signs appeared that UA is preparing something over by the Dnipro. What we can say at least is that they are not inactive there and a mechanized brigade has been added, subordinated to the Marine Corps’ AC, apparently to become a marine brigade.

You have all read about the Azov thrust and The Great Campaign Plan that came already in 2022. Then the US and Europe intervened and effectively destroyed all UA attempts to win the war. We tore our sparse hair out and have raged against weak politicians since the start of the war. My big blind spot was to severely underestimate the US and Europe’s sluggishness, cowardice, and outright disinterest.

Now in 2026, the US/Trump has no power to influence and Europe finally chose life under the gallows, so now we will see how it would have gone already then if everything had not been rigged in Putin’s favor. When Ukraine planned to trap the entire Russian VDV on the wrong side of the Dnipro in Kherson, Putin called the West and threatened with nuclear weapons if they were not allowed to withdraw unharmed, so we forced Zelensky to comply – there went the first chance to end the war.

Trump has now been exposed trying to secure an oil deal with Putin, so it is becoming increasingly clear why the US, Trump, and Biden have done/are doing what they do, this also applies to the early years for Europe – they just wanted to return to business as usual and Ukraine was a collateral they preferably wanted to cede land. Trump’s latest claim that higher diesel prices are due to Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries, when it is proven with a graph that it was the US-Iran war that drove prices up. That didn’t convince anyone at all, it failed.

It was an attempt to form an opinion in the West to benefit Russia and it was paired with threats of an American export ban against Europe. They are simply trying to stir up a public opinion that forces politicians to ease support for Ukraine – but we seem to stand firm now, the tide has turned.

That was what we guessed would happen if you remember, but it failed.

Ukraine fights as they see fit and probably no longer cares excessively about criticism. During the Duma election, Ukraine carried out one of the war’s largest drone attacks straight against Moscow, it was directly dystopian scenes when Moscow’s refinery burned down.

That action probably made little Putin sleepless with rage for a few days and previously Ukraine has always without exception faced very strict demands not to do anything on May 9 and similar occasions when that is when they want to strike. Already in 2022 we talked about “the red cards” which Zelensky confirmed in 2023 – a tight stranglehold they have now taken off.

Europe did not utter a word so presumably we were okay with this embellishment of the Russian election day?

The US has not only stopped delivering equipment, they have also taken advances on equipment Europe bought for UA and when pesetas were paid, deliveries were delayed for one or more years with the justification that the Iran war drained their own stocks. Tomahawks and interceptors were mainly affected?

Europe is withholding direct financial support to Ukraine for various administrative reasons, but maybe it is not attempts to increase pressure but just incompetent bureaucratic administrators who don’t understand better?

Anyway, it seems Ukraine has now disconnected from us and is accelerating?

Zelensky says here that the military wanted to start this offensive last year but they managed to pause it and that was good. Probably they wanted to have the corps system ready and then the anti-drone and drone weapons including medium range in place first perhaps.

Some weight to my previous posts that Ukraine thus had reserves.

Dudayev said “when the Ukrainian sun rises, Russia falls” – we are there now. We have probably reached the turning point and the critical mass is in UA’s favor.

Putin also missed the window he had to shock Europe into running around in circles, had he attacked the Baltics this summer it would have been too early for us. Unfortunately for him, it seems he hasn’t read Johan No.1, but that’s not our fault so don’t come and blame us for being stingy with an 80 SEK monthly subscription for world-leading analyses.

Now he chose a gradually escalating hybrid war up to a very intense hybrid war so we had time to get used to it step by step, and we can handle that.

Our politicians do not have it easy with all Russian influence but we have now managed it in many governments in Europe. They no longer fear the Russian threat, both the war threat and the internal threat against you as a person. The unpredictable thing that can knock you out of your career in a few weeks with a curveball you could never have expected.

Now you have all read about France where “too little money in schools” has led to huge riots with thousands arrested and 400 schools closed. Now it has escalated into general destruction and looting where the police have difficulty managing the scale of the unrest so the military has been called in.

In Spain, Sanchez has made so many bad decisions that there will now be a new election on November 29 – we predicted that long ago.

We recognize the pattern, when Turkey as the last country did not approve Sweden’s NATO membership, Qurans began to be burned and swastikas painted on mosques almost everywhere and we got the Quran riots (or whatever they were called). Turkey was fiercely angry at our blazing Muslim hatred but roughly on the day Turkey finally gave in, everything stopped as if on a given signal and calm settled over the country again. It is paid for, initiated, and driven by Russia. For Russia, this is a state-prioritized activity and the KGB spent 85% of its budget on destabilization in Europe as it was a big payoff for little money.

During the Cold War, the rampant neo-Nazism in West Germany was partly Russian agents with felt-tip pens who scribbled swastikas everywhere they could – that operation is well established.

In France, Le Pen is close to winning the election next year, if they can just get serious riots going until then it will probably be a walkover victory.

It is so extremely simple and works disturbingly well as long as we have weak politicians in good times.

These are not guesses, the fact that everything dies out as soon as the goal is achieved is as close to proof as one can get that these are state-supported influence operations aimed at creating maximum chaos in the target country.

In Europe, we have democracy and that means a simple majority of the government base has the power to change a lot. If Putin manages to get parties and politicians who are bought in, he can cut support from an entire country in a few months. The easiest way to do this is by blaming budget constraints and that other activities must be prioritized such as schools, care, and roads.

But not everything turned light blue, of course we had to test a new route back to work in the Dominican Republic while also checking that one of the kids got started at university in Thessaloniki, Greece. If you can’t get into Sweden, you have to apply to some university where you manage to sneak in instead, that’s an old rule.

My role was to be bombarded with wishes over a few months and then, when ticket prices started to skyrocket and had to be booked urgently, to nag everyone until they gave in under duress. When everything was booked, everyone wanted to change their minds and thought what was booked was too expensive, and anyone could understand that everything that went wrong was because you don’t do it that way. Tour guiding is not my thing; it’s crossed off the list of future career opportunities even though I would have liked to work in Benidorm.

It becomes a little puzzle where everything that falls under the definition of a business trip is sent to the employer and I cover the rest, but apparently they didn’t like a receipt for five Souvlaki in bread as a “business lunch” during vacation; I guess the limit is three?

So what is the verdict on Greece, this cradle of democracy that months of planning have gone into exploring so I can become more democratic and make more friends –

The University of Thessaloniki tries to attract international students and has some international programs of very high quality.

In Thessaloniki, they apparently have roots in the Balkan group and in my opinion are quite reasonable in their treatment of others; you get what you pay for, you are treated correctly, and there is a light atmosphere in the air.

The city is a buried silver treasure, we walked around for two days in a bustling anthill without feeling cramped and everything is open except early in the morning. Instead of distinct phases like rush hour, lunch, gearing up time, and evening party, everyone is active simultaneously all day and everything is open until almost midnight. The city has exactly everything and the restaurant scene is individually run without the big chains. There was a whole street with organic food of the highest quality, locally grown with mountains of cheese and smoked meat. Didn’t have time to dive deep into it but I usually don’t hold back when I see new exciting cheese varieties, then I always overbuy and since my wife is not a passionate cheese fan, it usually becomes a somewhat one-sided cheese diet for me for a week.

The city is very nice with a 5km beach promenade and lots of historic buildings besides stylish architecture and ancient churches. The club scene is supposed to be rigorous but we are a bit too old to go out partying; if you’re nodding off at nine after two beers, you simply have to stay within your age group.

Crime is low but that is probably due to the police who move around the city and look like in case of a criminal act they first drag you down to the basement for a serious beating because you had the audacity to disturb them in the middle of the constant coffee breaks mixed with meal breaks and group hangouts outside some café. Probably minimum height as an application criterion since no one was shorter than me and they were broad as church doors instead of the wide waist and sloping shoulders I have trained myself to.

Their bureaucracy seems to have adapted for people who come from abroad and everyone speaks English, so it doesn’t become a carousel of queuing and constant new visits to various hot offices with chain-smoking secretaries in hair rollers who don’t care the least – okay if you want to try to establish yourself, I guess.

The airport is newly built and worked like a German car factory; some “head of department” at the university explained why “now the airport works well because the Germans run it”.

A Souvlaki in bread for 4 EUR gets you through a day and is divine, kind of their kebab in bread and just the beginning of a culinary space journey to another galaxy. They have a good kitchen up to fine pastries even though we were there too briefly to dive deep into everything exciting, I got quite hooked on the Souvlaki. The only thing I never touched was the Greek coffee and stuck to espresso. I don’t trust them to handle the coffee bean carefully enough yet but will try to dare to try it next time we are there.

As happy as we were to have had the privilege of visiting the bright and beautiful Thessaloniki, Athens hit us hard like a ton of fertilizer when we were to sleep there one night for the flight the next day.

Chaotic airport, scammer taxis where their fixed price is as flexible as the rigged moving taximeter.

The four-star hotel was like a hostel and “yes, we probably wrote it wrong on Booking, we’ll fix it” was the only answer you got but the low price was a warning I ignored. The room was miserable and when I asked them to book a regular taxi for our 03:00 exit. “It costs 75 EUR at night by law” – already there you knew it was a rip-off incoming and I tried Google AI. After being talked down, I accepted that we needed to get to the flight early in the morning and couldn’t take chances, but of course asked the taxi driver for the fixed price that Google AI said but “a deal is a deal and I can leave if you want”. Then he called the hotel guy who groggily explained that was the price we agreed on, you always have to honor agreements, that’s honorable. The overall impression was that you go into “fight or flight” mode immediately and couldn’t relax until you managed to escape this huge nest of snakes with your clothes still on.

Besides that, “city center” on Booking was also all the ghettos on the outskirts, their national dish down there seemed to be pizza with a mountain of cheese and the sea of restaurants up in Thessaloniki replaced by about three within walking distance in Athens. My verdict is that Athens is a beaver lodge best avoided altogether because then you just sit on a rock-hard bed in a room less than half as big as it said on booking.com and scrape the cheese off a burnt pizza base with a dissatisfied family asking if I even bothered to Google before I booked. I got 1/10 in rating anyway so that’s what Athens gets too.

The four-hour flight to Madrid you had to rawdog, no screen or internet so you slept your hour until the coffee cart crashed into your leg and asked if you wanted to buy a glass of water, then the clocks stopped.

Between Madrid and Santo Domingo they apparently have wild beef with Air Europa over customers so that was the biggest screen we’ve ever had, pre-coffee, okay food (unusual), ice cream, coffee and breakfast sandwich but then the best – free Starlink without any registration or payment. You sat like on the couch at home with a half-melted ice cream in one hand and messed around out in cyberspace. Probably the best economy class we’ve ever flown if you ever get the idea to visit the Dominican Republic sometime, Iberia ftw.

Anyway, now we are back at work and can start writing full-time again. The long-awaited Bible studies are on their way now after Johan’s praised travel tips mixed with global escalation, what is happening in Europe and not least the UA war which is a source of great joy right now. After 4.5 years of setbacks, they really deserve this.

You remember the soothing elevator with its elevator music at just the right volume, which was in matte yellow and light blue – it feels like it is going up and down all the time right now without stopping.

That Putin has missed his chance to go after Europe does not mean he will not try, they have just had an exercise with 45,000 soldiers with full drone weaponry where the goal was to secure an area in a nearby country, the whole evil team had sent personnel and observers there. Some -stan they say who know but it could just as well be the Baltics, we will know when we know.

Note here that when Johan No.1 writes that RU has strategic offensive reserves, a united media and analyst corps say they do not – they have to explain where those 45,000 come from then in my opinion, that would be honest.

I will return in another post regarding the escalation against us but it is my opinion that the chance was this summer if it could have worked out for Putin.

Now don’t forget to rush to a paid subscription to Johan No.1’s Substack for continued travel tips and above all the Bible studies will blow your socks off, they are so good that you will become Catholics just by the momentum if you are not already Jehovah’s.

I also want to recommend this, an excellent summary of everything about the UA war with real-time updates made by a guy who knows his stuff unlike analog Johan No.1

https://ukrainakriget.github.io