Ukraine has carried out extensive attacks both against Crimea and an oil refinery in southern Russia – Russian losses

A fire broke out at the Afipsky oil refinery in southern Russia (Krasnodar Krai) following Ukrainian attacks during the night. Read more here.

Several explosions were also reported from multiple locations in Crimea after extensive attacks from Ukraine. Read more here.

Russian losses in the war in Ukraine

Today’s report shows that Russian losses continue to remain at a high level. 10 Special, by the way, is not something you often see these days.

  • 1310 KWIA
  • 6 Tanks
  • 10 AFVs
  • 74 Artillery systems
  • 2 MLRS
  • 2 Air defense systems
  • 2120 UAVs
  • 9 UGVs
  • 326 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
  • 10 Special equipment

Ukrainian General Staff report

Slightly fewer KAB but still far too many. The drones are also high, but it possibly seems that around 9,000 – 10,000 is the upper limit that Russia can manage to maintain.

  • 251 combat clashes
  • 100 airstrikes
  • 292 KAB/CAB
  • 9,293 kamikaze drones
  • 3,248 shells (38 from MLRS)

SLAVA UKRAINI

Apologies for the late post, I have a bit too much to do right now and at the same time unexpected problems must of course also arise (why can’t they appear when you have too little to do instead?).


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61 thoughts on “Ukraine has carried out extensive attacks both against Crimea and an oil refinery in southern Russia – Russian losses”

  1. N Slobozhansky 6↗️ S Slobozhansky 11💥 Kupyansk 3 Lyman 14💥↘️ Slovyansk 13💥 Kramatorsk 0 Kostjantynivka 16💥↗️ Pokrovsk 40💥💥↘️ Oleksandrivskij 1↘️ Huliaipole 22💥↘️ Orikhivsk 6 Prydniprovskij 0 Localized 132↘️ Unlocalized 102 Total 232↘️ Ratio unloc/loc 0.77

    1. Cannot update above. Chrome iPhone.

       

      The chart above shows a leveling off/decreased Russian pressure while the unlocalized Ukrainian pressure still remains around 100. That is, no counterreaction to Russian attacks beyond that. Activities in line are regularly reported from JohanNo1, Clement Molin, Andrew Peroetua, David D 🐿️, and Rybar.

       

      N Slobozhansky 1↘️
      S Slobozhansky 4↘️
      Kupyansk 2
      Lyman 16💥
      Slovyansk 14💥
      Kramatorsk 1
      Kostjantynivka 14💥
      Pokrovsk 55💥💥💥↗️
      Oleksandrivskij 4↗️
      Huliaipole 29💥💥↗️
      Orikhivsk 6
      Prydniprovskij 1

      Localized 147↗️
      Unlocalized 104
      Total 251↗️
      Ratio unloc/loc 0.71

      1. Often run into that problem when I copy from Twitter.
        Those are so-called vector images (SVG) and should normally have a so-called class set called emoji so that they are recognized and displayed exactly like that with the correct size.

        If it is missing, they are treated as regular images and become way too large. SVG files are, as mentioned, vector images and have no size (or, they can have it but it is rare) and therefore scale completely crazily if there is no limitation. 

        So Twitter runs its own race and does not follow normal standards (and probably doesn’t care about how it looks if you cut and paste it on other sites).

        Have added stylesheet rules that prevent them from becoming grotesquely large.

        Then we have the problem that they also get an img tag which makes it a clickable image.
        Will see if it’s possible to fix that as well but unfortunately I don’t have time for that right now.

          1. Both Jquery or CSS would have worked.

            The button would have been drawn but either removed again via Jquery, or hidden via CSS.

            But since I myself wrote the function to add the zoom button when there is an image in the comments (it’s to keep the size down so it doesn’t take up so much space and you don’t have to scroll endlessly), it was best to detect right there if it is a twitter emoji/icon and simply skip printing the button in the html altogether. Less clutter in the code. 

            Fixed now, however there are no line breaks/paragraphs in your comment so everything will appear on one line after another.

            But I don’t think that mattered much. The arrows still make it quite easy to see what belongs together.

             

             

            1. 👍 yes, the closer to the source the better.. yes, it became nicely compact, the problem is when it is neither an arrow nor a fireball. Maybe come up with some default emojis.

  2. Thank you both MSX and 205.
    Kasparov is absolutely right in his tweet.
    **”I do not feel comfortable saying a word in defense of Trump’s actions, but he should not be blamed for killing NATO. He has buried it, but the alliance effectively died when Obama in 2014 and, especially, Biden in 2022 refused to unleash their power to stop the open Russian aggression against free Europe – the sole purpose for which this organization was founded back in 1949.”
    https://x.com/Kasparov63/status/2064786728259354768?s=20**

  3. Off-topic
    The traitor Donald Plump and his crazy administration are engaged in idiotic economic policies and senseless war crimes, etc., which harm the USA so enormously that it is difficult to comprehend the extent of it. That the rest of the world also suffers damage is bad enough, but that he is allowed to continue this far because of spineless Republicans and Democrats is outrageous. Democracy at its worst! The demented narcissist has truly set a record for presidential idiocy in just over a year. He will go down in history in a way he never intended. Unfortunately, this off-topic post is also relevant to the Ukraine issue, but thankfully Zelensky and the other heroes in Ukraine now have good forward momentum. Glory to the heroes!

    1. As a non-American, I believe we should be a bit cautious with these outcomes. Feel free to complain about specific things, but sweeping generalizations with posts showing contempt for democracy somewhat resemble the tone of conversation on the other blog.

      1. Yes, best to keep a low profile. Just like those who should speak up more, the circus can go on longer. There are so many specific things to list if you want, it would become a yellow wall. Why should non-Americans keep a low profile, we suffer just as badly.

    2. I have thought that the USA always does as they have done – does what is good for them.

      It remains to be seen if they manage to understand, the midterm election is the first break.

      Then we have our 2008 financial crisis now in the autumn.

      and the outcome of the upcoming global escalation.

      I would like to see the USA and China fall so Europe can rise, but historically the USA has been too strong and too cunning.

      We accepted their invented and created Cold Wars that gave the USA their best years.

      Trump seems to be trying again by inviting Putin to the Baltics. This summer is the highest risk for Europe since the Cold War.

    3. Sky11, see the post above by Pehr (quoting Kasparov), which if true, suggests the problem is deeper than your criticism assumes. In that case, your criticism is too narrow but also too strong, if it is directed solely at the current admin. 

    4. He lacks a whole lot of qualities associated with statesmen, while at the same time possessing many other qualities that are completely inappropriate for people in decision-making positions, and for people whose job involves dealing with other people.

      He tries to run the USA like a company, or perhaps more like a mafia. He sees the outside world as competitors, allies as well. Unlimited power is what he strives for, and that is the biggest problem, because his appointments based solely on loyalty have erased all knowledge from the top power layer in the USA, with Rubio as the only exception.

      What is of great importance to us and to Ukraine is that he mistrusts his own intelligence service and has a strangely strong relationship with Putin, even though Putin abuses the trust time and again, that relationship does not seem to falter, unlike the relationships he has with other leaders, which shift from trust to blind hatred if he can interpret their tweets as something negative about him personally.

      After all the setbacks he has had so far, his judgment now seems to have started to falter more than usual. That he has involved himself on such a personal level in the Middle East is wearing on him, he has taken too big a bite and is now choking on problems from which he will not emerge with honor intact.

      Exciting to see how it will turn out, but I have a feeling that neither the USA nor any country in the Middle East will come out of this stronger than they were before the conflict.

       

  4. Article in SVD
    New phase of war: Ukraine has solved the “donut problem”
    Drones lead the Ukrainian defense, but in one area they have been weak – until now. Ukraine has solved what is called the “donut problem.” This could pave the way for a new phase in the war.
    Text: Fredrik Fahlman. Photo: Paul Wennerholm.
    Published 05:30

    SOUTHEASTERN UKRAINE The group receives information about a strategic target and work begins immediately. They head out to a predetermined location, flight-test their drone – and then it is launched with a catapult. With the electric motor, the drone glides almost silently over Russian-occupied territory and has soon covered more than fifty kilometers. This is significantly farther than what typical attack drones can manage.
    With the help of an AI program, they quickly find the target. It is a larger gathering of Russian soldiers and officers, fully visible from above. Judging by their relaxed posture, they have no idea they might be in a danger zone. With the push of a button, four-kilogram bombs are released. And a few seconds later, the result is visible on the camera: the fireball testifies to a direct hit.
    – They never understood that they were vulnerable. Now they will never be able to harm civilians again, says the pilot “Ray.”
    1/3
    Pilot Ray displays the Sytj drone, with a range of up to 200 kilometers.
    Pilot Ray displays the Sytj drone, with a range of up to 200 kilometers. Photo: Paul Wennerholm
    2/3
    The group fights for the 426th UAS Regiment, which belongs to the Ukrainian Marine Corps.
    The group fights for the 426th UAS Regiment, which belongs to the Ukrainian Marine Corps. Photo: Paul Wennerholm
    3/3
    The frontline is eighty kilometers away. Photo: Paul Wennerholm
    SvD meets him and his group at a secret location in southeastern Ukraine, eighty kilometers from the frontline. They fight for the 426th UAS Regiment, which belongs to the Ukrainian Marine Corps. There, they are connected to a special Ukrainian unit that uses a new type of weapon: medium-range drones.
    This model is called Sytj, named after the Ukrainian word for the little owl. The name fits well: the owl is known for its sharp vision, silent wingbeats, and for striking its prey at night.
    In the same way, the Sytj drone is intended to operate. Instead of striking right at the frontline, it is developed to go deeper behind enemy lines. There it attacks drone pilots, military bases, and logistics transports.
    Ray says that he and his soldiers are high-priority targets for the Russian army. Therefore, they are strict about hiding their faces and only presenting themselves by their war names.
    For the same reason, he does not reveal details about the night’s mission they have just returned from – it is still classified. But he is allowed to recount one of their early missions, a year ago, when the group attacked the mentioned strategic target.
    1/3
    Sytj can be packed with four kilograms of bombs.
    Sytj can be packed with four kilograms of bombs. Photo: Paul Wennerholm
    2/3
    One of the most important features is how quiet it is. The electric motor is barely audible.
    One of the most important features is how quiet it is. The electric motor is barely audible. Photo: Paul Wennerholm
    3/3
    Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s former spy chief, has described Sytj as “reliable and deadly.” Photo: Paul Wennerholm
    His unit has a special focus on the major city of Kherson in southeastern Ukraine, which is subjected daily to Russian drone attacks. The situation has been described as a “human safari.” Russia often attacks civilian targets, which is confirmed by the video clips released by Russian Telegram channels. In May, a UN vehicle in the city was attacked twice by Russian drones. SvD’s correspondents also witnessed a hospital being bombed in December.
    – For our unit, the most important mission is to strike at the pilots who terrorize our civilian population, says Ray.
    The buzzing is barely audible

    His unit shows SvD how the drone works and prepares it for a test flight. The entire setup fits in their van: the catapult, the drone’s body and wings, and a screen where they control the flight.
    After 15 minutes, they have checked the drone, screwed the catapult in the field, and examined that the control system works. Then it is launched – and accelerates quickly.
    Against the light blue sky, it is barely visible as it flies a couple of hundred meters away. The most remarkable thing is how quiet it is: apart from the low flights it makes near the group, the buzzing is almost not heard at all. The difference is like night and day compared to Shahed drones, whose moped-like sound is noticeable several kilometers before they are even seen.
    The drone goes in for landing. If it is not shot down, it can be reused for several missions.
    The drone goes in for landing. If it is not shot down, it can be reused for several missions. Photo: Paul Wennerholm
    This is perhaps the drone’s most important feature, Ray continues. It is rare that the Russian soldiers they attack even know that something is watching over them from above.
    Sytj is mainly built of composite materials, which are less visible on radar systems than metal constructions. The drone’s radar cross-section is about the size of a stork – Ukraine’s national bird and commonly found in the country – which makes it impossible to distinguish the two on Russian radar at a distance. Additionally, most Russian systems are designed to detect larger airplanes and helicopters.
    Has solved the “donut problem”

    Several military analysts have previously pointed out that this type of drone has been scarce in Ukraine’s offensive capabilities. Among them Michael Kofman, associated with the think tank Carnegie, who has made several trips to the war front.
    The Ukrainian military has effectively defended its trenches with drones, and they have also made the war painful for the Kremlin by striking deep inside Russia against military infrastructure and oil refineries. But the distance of about 50 to 500 kilometers has been likened by Kofman to a donut – here the Russian army has been able to operate in peace.
    Until now. According to Ray, they are constantly getting better at this type of operation, and he says they notice a positive development on their part of the front.
    – We go after everything: drone factories, troop transports, pilots. We hunt their fighters – and we see that attacks on civilians have decreased.
    But he also mentions another important target: logistics.
    ISW: Putin cannot achieve goals

    Russia’s offensive is undermined when they can no longer supply fuel, ammunition, and heavier equipment to the front.
    What he says is supported by a new report from the think tank ISW. The report states that the war could enter a new phase in 2026, largely thanks to the medium-range drones. According to the think tank, there are signs that Ukrainian commanders are beginning to plan their own offensive around this capability.
    Soldiers “Alfa” and “Ray” after the night’s mission.
    Soldiers “Alfa” and “Ray” after the night’s mission. Photo: Paul Wennerholm
    During the year, Ukraine has for the first time since 2023 taken back more ground than they have lost. They have stabilized the frontline, while Russia now suffers more losses than it can recruit new soldiers.
    The threat has also been noticed by the Russian side. According to a Russian military blogger, it is unlikely that Russia will manage to adapt its defense to this type of threat in the next 6-12 months, giving Ukraine a unique opportunity.
    ISW further writes that it is not inconceivable that Russia will soon completely stop advancing in Ukraine – and that Putin after that “no longer has a likely expectation to achieve his goals by continuing the war.”
    Ray shares that view. What he can see, at his part of the frontline, is that the Ukrainians are entering an increasingly positive development. He can also see that Russia has adapted its actions after their attacks. Ray says that Russian soldiers are moving their positions further back, and that they are starting to act more nervously several kilometers behind the frontline.
    – But it doesn’t help them. We continue to strike deeper and deeper.
    SvD’s correspondents in Ukraine, Fredrik Fahlman and Paul Wennerholm.
    SvD’s correspondents in Ukraine, Fredrik Fahlman and Paul Wennerholm. Photo: Dmytro Horyevoy
    Fredrik Fahlman
    Fredrik Fahlman
    Correspondent based in Kiev, SvD

    Paul Wennerholm
    Paul Wennerholm
    Photographer.

    https://www.svd.se/a/k0Q3qv/ukrainas-dronare-loser-donut-problemet

      1. Interesting 🤔
        There are also frequency converters and electric motors that have a completely pure sine wave and therefore emit minimal noise, although the propeller probably produces higher noise and thus provides more effect to minimize noise.

  5. Crimea has “weeks” of food and fuel left.

    The canal from the Dnieper was cut off by RU themselves – do they have water?

    Probably not.

    We can probably conclude that Crimea is lost this year.

    Without a ceasefire, RU cannot hold the peninsula.

    UA can create “peninsulas” everywhere in Ukraine in a few months.

  6. Kostiamtynivka becomes the next big threat, outside the town UA has already dug defenses so a nothingburger.

    After that, it’s almost a stop everywhere.

    RU offensive this year, has it already lost its steam?

    Probably there will be a period of “more, more, more” before it ends?

    Putin probably won’t give up that easily.

    And then RU losses will run wild

  7. One thing you have to give Trump is that he has scared the oil price speculators into total passivity.

    In 2008, the oil price was over 200 USD for a while, if you remember, just on speculation in futures for less than this.

    I can no longer manage to navigate the Iran war – too much disinformation.

    After the threats against Putin’s fall, there will be some posts about post-this.

    Time to try to predict now, USA, Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine.

    1. No one has the energy to care anymore, they wait and watch until autumn, if the stocks start to run low then they will probably press the panic button, and then there will be a rumble on the stock markets.

    1. The Crimea is probably emptying spontaneously via the bridge (civilian) now that the land bridge is more uncertain than ever before.

      I don’t think the military is doing it; I guess they are first trying to prevent Ukraine from coming down from the north.

      1. Well, something like that Lynx, they might even save the Kerch Bridge for a while so everyone has time to leave?

        Civilians have already started, I think I see, but they can’t get hold of any gasoline 🤣🤣🤣

        With the military finally trying to retreat down to Crimea, you could probably cut the bridge and capture 20,000 just to rub it in Putin’s face.

  8. Johan usually complains about the Italians, implying a mafia rule and political chaos. But that is not true.

    Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy:

    “Peace cannot be achieved through Ukraine’s defeat or the surrender of its territories. That would be extremely dangerous for peace in Europe and a precedent for the entire world.

    We will achieve peace only when Russia stops its aggression and withdraws its troops from Ukrainian territory.”

    1. I agree. 👍
      Meloni has impressed as PM despite having been “forced” to co-govern with parties whose members seem to have questionable ties to the Kremlin.

  9. 🦠🇩🇪 Johan’s yellow wall has now spread to Germany:

    “Does Russia need a new military base at the Finnish border to conquer Ukraine? No. For Ukraine, Russia has already positioned everything. The new base in Nowaja Wilga is located 160 kilometers from Finland’s eastern border – not from Ukraine.

    THIS IS NOT FOR THE CURRENT WAR. THIS IS FOR AFTERWARD.

    While Western politicians talk about negotiations and peace – Putin is systematically building:

    The first completely new military base since the Cold War at the NATO border.

    409,000 new recruits for 2026.

    Drone production quintupled.

    New nuclear doctrine with a lower threshold for use.

    Russian satellite jamming across all of Europe – only scientifically confirmed last week.

    Putin’s own military planner Gerasimov 2023: “Ukraine is just the first step towards a restructuring of the European security architecture.”

    Anyone negotiating peace with Putin today without seeing these facts – is negotiating blindly. Or lying deliberately. 🇷🇺🇫🇮🇳🇦🇪🇺🇺🇦”

    (translated from x)

    https://x.com/annademilanese/status/2064969416429748237?s=46

  10. The United Kingdom’s Secretary of Defense John Healey resigns. In a letter to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Healey writes that he and the government do not agree on the investments in the British defense.
    He praises the government’s work with support to Ukraine and the investments in defense spending since they took power, but emphasizes that even more is needed.
    “You have not been able, and the Treasury has not wanted to, invest the resources that the nation needs to be able to defend itself at a time when the threat level is increasing,” he writes.
    https://omni.se/a/d4kboO

      1. That may be so, but perhaps also part of the plan from the beginning, together with Israel’s plan for regime change.

        They thought it would be easy, then they got stuck, and then it becomes difficult to get out. Just like for Putin.

    1. Iran can threaten with whatever they want, today it’s Musk’s company, tomorrow something else. It feels like a lot of noise and little action. Reminds me a bit of Putin’s nuclear weapons, I don’t remember what it was last time, but there have been many threats, and I find it hard to see them stopping.

      1. I think the analogy is somewhat flawed. Iran is actually launching its shahids and missiles against several countries in the region. Russia threatens the West, but apart from the subversive activities they were already engaged in, nothing has happened against the West.

  11. Good morning!

    Today’s results:

    1300 KWIA

    4 Tanks

    1 AFV

    78 Artillery systems

    2 MLRS

    1 Air defense system

    2218 UAVs

    8 UGVs

    352 Vehicles and Fuel tanks

    3 Special equipment

    Slava Ukraini

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