The Threats to Russia’s Imminent Fall Part Two, June 12, 2026

Apparently not even AI (or…), Putin made a big faceplant at some appearance and was totally laughed at.

Back to the rest of the threats I intended to discuss before I got sidetracked into the Baltics (again).

The Iran war is strange – I think it’s clear that Israel intervened with the motivation that they wanted regime change and now they are absolutely screaming. We went through earlier that it was important for Israel that Iran’s regime fell and Pasha was flown in.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-security/2026-02-24/ty-article/.premium/israel-backs-reza-pahlavi-to-rule-iran-thats-a-dangerous-gamble/0000019c-9043-dab1-adbe-ba6b9f570000

For the US, that was not an original goal of Operation Epic Fury at all, good to include that even though it was “laser-focus” – which indisputably is the highest level in warfare.

“The mission of Operation Epic Fury is laser-focused: Destroy Iranian offensive missiles, destroy Iranian missile production, destroy their navy and other security infrastructure – and they will never have nuclear weapons.”

https://www.war.gov/Spotlights/Operation-Epic-Fury/#:~:text=%22The%20mission%20of%20Operation%20Epic,will%20never%20have%20nuclear%20weapons.%22

I understand why Israel is starting to get nervous – the laws of war apply to them as well and Iran will never forget this.

For Iran, and according to the laws of war, Israel is now a fully legitimate target where they have the right to retaliate proportionally. Israel with the US has fought thousands of targets in the country so the last thing Israel is eager for is a proportional response from Iran, I would imagine. But they own this now because this is the real world.

Iran has also shown great willingness for “mutual destruction” so Israel can probably be sure that as soon as the Iranians have nuclear weapons, they will steal their Samson option, a last all-in when needed.

Netanyahu – Trump seems to have quarrels before meetings these days, good tone is not followed at all.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-said-to-yell-at-netanyahu-youre-fking-crazy-youd-be-in-prison-if-not-for-me

Just to sabotage, Israel has renewed hostilities in Lebanon so Iran immediately rejected the entire peace plan, then they went in and fought targets in Iran just to be sure there would be no more peace talks about the failed peace plan.

It doesn’t end there and the Trump administration promises a day of eternal peace only to immediately start bombing all over the area – I can no longer navigate this mess.

Neither can the markets so the oil price is bobbing around a hundred dollars a barrel – as soon as speculators try to short or bet on up/down movements, a statement from Trump blows them up and the levers act like a catapult straight up into the stratosphere. I don’t know if it’s a strategy but it works anyway – the oil price barely moves.

Israel has not fought the army leadership but gone after higher commanders in the IRGC, Bashjir and the mullah regime. The picture is a bit older but representative.

Israel has also armed the Kurds, has “boots on the ground” in Iran and it was they who pushed for Pasha’s takeover, as already mentioned.

The US with Trump at the helm, who knows what hidden agenda they had but it really benefits no one in the region, least of all Israel – for a while Trump was going to block Hormuz when Iran wanted it open, a bit hard to figure out who is doing what in that war.

Pretty sure a hidden agenda was that MENA would buy American security at five times the market price for the next 70 years but Ukraine totally crashed that pre-party when they went in and sold their anti-drone and anti-robot weapons at bargain prices to everyone with gold in stock.

The US has thus gone so far as to try to threaten MENA not to buy Ukrainian – completely shameless. Can’t find that statement now so this will have to do.

https://www.politico.eu/article/us-donald-trump-snubs-ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-drone-help-middle-east

Possibly Trump has revealed the US plan with Iran – a common criminal smash-and-grab like any Swedish gang, but with tomahawks and planes…

Impressive from the defenders of the free world, not so much.

I stood behind a liberation of Iran’s oppressed people – this is not even close.

After that detour – further escalation in MENA is not excluded either, no one likes Israel after the latest genius move to start bombing oil installations in Iran so everyone in the area got the backlash of the decade. Regardless of what is said, there are many who don’t like each other who could consider forgetting blood feuds and cooperate to run over Israel, and preferably leave zero survivors. We have already seen Iron Dome start to falter considerably and they have seen that too.

Turkey’s Erdogan recently said this about a “Greater Israel” by the way, if Turkey starts to pull back their ears they have a quite formidable defense force that has been waging a low-key war in Syria and against the Kurds for quite a few years – it can be considered to have had some training.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/byf4y6lbfe

Other places that could start blinking red are a demilitarized Svalbard which must be defended militarily by Russia against *(insert any made-up threat)*. The US would then naturally feel compelled to preserve peace in Greenland against the Russian threat.

There’s always some silver lining – after that Iceland will be ready to cross the water to join the EU and Canada will probably submit a sharp application on the day promising us all the oil we want to bathe in at cost price.

I do not exclude that the US would send troops to Crimea just before Ukraine has retaken the peninsula – “no one has managed to hold it since 2014” so “the US must save world peace in the Black Sea” says Trump. Then it will naturally be decided that Ukraine and Russia can coexist on the peninsula with a nice agreement where the US stands in the middle. Then Trump wants the Nobel Prize again, of course. There are defense exercises in the Black Sea in July one could piggyback on if one wants.

Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are also countries Putin wants to revive in the Russian red Empire if he can. Preferably before the Georgian government falls. Now the cheeky Armenians have also elected a pro-EU government which he probably sees as a direct declaration of war.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/08/armenia-europe-party-wins-election-russia-nikol-pashinyan

Three out of four down there have taken a clear stance against Putin, and in Georgia there are constant street protests against the pro-Russian regime.

That is not entirely risk-free because if everyone goes to war with Russia and Kazakhstan gets sour, Putin has an even bigger problem to handle than today straight into the country’s undefended soft parts.

Japan complains that Russia is cruising around with its fleet in the Sea of Japan and recently felt compelled to quickly send troops to Hokkaido. A bit like when our defense forces had an unannounced defense exercise on Gotland 2013-2014 sometime that never left.

So it’s full speed everywhere but soon the Trump administration will meet the Russian counterpart for a tunnel under the Bering Strait between the countries, not everything is darkness and violence.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/06/04/8037791

Highly interesting just that they have agreed on this at the highest level.

What Russia needs to do immediately is to push the Ukraine war into becoming secondary since they “have bigger threats to our fantastic way of life.” The key is to do as in Sweden and send all embarrassing matters to a top-secret archive for national security, so then you can legally tell the media that it never happened or doesn’t exist – that must be the job description for the top-secret archive? Quite a clever setup actually to formalize the right to total lies and keep the door open for all sorts of sins to disappear, big or small. What a jackpot for SÄPO to hold all the dirt on everyone if they ever need to twist someone’s arm. The archive itself is actually a threat to national security by its mere existence, especially since our elected officials always seem to be the worst in class.

In Ukraine, Putin’s room for maneuver is minimal, yes they can cause a meltdown in Enerhodar, drop some tactical nuclear weapons and continue their strategic drone war for a while longer but none of that can change the outcome which spells Russian panic flight at some point.

The fastest way to lose Belarus is to ask them to attack into Ukraine – that country is a feint to tie up troops in Poland and Lithuania as well as an anchor on the Russian flank.

Hungary was not fun for Putin at all, in 2022 the Hungarians were ready to attack into Ukraine as soon as the Russians took Kiev, and when that didn’t happen they fell asleep again. But they have been a reliable partner who now, in something as cheeky as a democratic election, disappeared overnight. Putin misses all the decisions they have delayed or blocked in the EU since 2022, a better Trojan horse than Orban is hard to find.

Orban has caused so much damage that the EU is now considering not giving new countries voting rights for several years upon accession – he ruined it for everyone.

Transnistria sits where it sits, Moldova also managed to have democratic elections that went completely wrong for Putin just like in Romania.

His grip on the Balkans is starting to loosen but since the government in Latvia fell over something as trivial as a couple of drones crashing in the country, he has now for the second time sent drones with warheads into Romania and is keeping his fingers crossed, maybe it will work again.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/29/russian-drone-romanian-apartments-wounding-two-people-and-starting-fire

“The sea drone was Ukrainian,” you say in unison – yes it was but UA says it was hijacked.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/drone-explodes-in-romanian-port-as-ukraine-says-russia-jammed-it/vi-AA24VDCq?cvid=0d553fd793364515cb6fc321416385dd

Besides Spain’s government coalition parties being completely infiltrated by Russia and Kier Starmer in the UK almost making it too easy for Putin, his grip on Europe is significantly weaker today than in 2022.

He is urgently trying to trigger a migration crisis again but every country except Spain has active border control and does not let any of the boats through.

Spain was the weak link, the discussion is ongoing there, and after that Europe’s perimeter defense is functioning.

Turkey and Cyprus are at least up for discussion since Macron had to go out and warn that “someone” might get a feeling. You hardly need to know that conflict to understand that “someone” is named Recep.

https://www.france24.com/en/this-is-all-about-defence-macron-addresses-european-security-in-cyprus

Something I am waiting for is an escalation against Australia and New Zealand, they lie there completely isolated and to me it is incomprehensible how Australia cannot be one big European naval base but it is not.

I have poor political knowledge of them, they are too far away.

Europe has recently put its foot down against China and wants to try to impose punitive tariffs, we probably stole that from Trump’s playbook maybe?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/28/eu-discuss-restrictions-chinese-imports-fears-overreliance

I like this kind of thing and think we should claw back our manufacturing and ban the sale of everything made in China because it has too large a CO2 footprint for us – being environmentally friendly is important as we have learned and I hold that banner high as you know.

But there will be a backlash from that – the easiest for China is to stop exporting critical components or raw materials for our own manufacturing so our products only become 99% finished. Then when we fail to manufacture ourselves, they ask with a broad grin if we don’t want to buy from them instead, and cheaper too.

China probably has plans A, B, and C where the last two are how much land they will steal in Russia when it is at its weakest. This infiltration has already begun and is an economic takeover so far.

If they do that, we will just replace Russia with the great Chinese threat instead unfortunately and get a round two sometime with China. But since Russia is its own worst enemy, there is not much we can do about it. After the Soviet collapse in 1991, when senior officers made bad decisions in East Germany, we tried to welcome Russia into the fold – that brought us to today and a devastated Ukraine.

In the 90s, Swedish officers from MekB10 went on a tourist trip to Grozny when I was there for reserve officer training. I never understood why but they had been to a military firing range and test-fired an anti-aircraft gun and were completely ecstatic.

Now we have gone far beyond what is a threat to Russia’s imminent collapse.

The escalation in the world has gone in steps where October 7, 2023, which Russia was behind, took us to full war in MENA in 2.5 years, with Trump’s help admittedly.

The world is full of many doubters who never believe it will escalate further when just this chain that began with many Russian-speaking people on cameras when Hamas swarmed over the border into Israel and murdered everything they could find drove an entire continent into full war.

Europe is a failed attempt by Putin to avoid being at war as well. China will make its move in the not too distant future because Trump – Putin – Xi have already agreed on what China can use violence against without them intervening. Over in Asia, Europe has no possibility to get involved now that we have not built up capability in Australia.

By the way, Xi Jinping has just been over to North Korea and visited Kim who is said to have 60 tactical nuclear weapons for personal use.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqdnpzv45po

The entire evil team has met in person for over a month – not common at all.

At some point, world trade will be disrupted again when critical waterways are closed – the Malacca Strait is one, the Suez Canal, the Red Sea, the Öresund, the Bosporus, and the Panama Canal. Hormuz seems to be closed in rounds by either Trump or Iran.

Different countries may also start attacking civilian cargo ships here and there just as Ukraine strikes the shadow fleet in all sorts of places. If nothing else, Putin has access to an entire fleet of civilian ships where he has parked operators with Geran warheads he can use.

The Houthis shot down over 300 civilian cargo ships in the Red Sea when they were active a few years ago. I think that got too little coverage in the media.

Not sure if you have been following, but besides us in Europe now boarding and seizing ships from the Russian shadow fleet, the US is doing the same in the Gulf of Mexico, and China has some form of modern piracy ongoing in the South China Sea.

Since Russia’s shadow fleet is sailing around unhindered mostly everywhere, sunken ships in the channels leading to our major ports are probably not impossible either.

Various sabotage attempts against our electricity production and transmission – if we are heading into a very cold El Niño winter, it is a very low-hanging fruit, and Russia definitely practiced that throughout 2025.

We are heading into a period of escalation again and it seems like different events are coming closer together now. Ensuring that Ukraine wins its war against Russia is Europe’s task, which right now we mostly seem to think Chamberlain would have solved in the best way if you listen to the clowns in E3.

I have gone through the Leningrad military district and will post something about that.

Then the positive news at the fronts never ends – Ukraine is well on its way to winning its war.

If you think these were gloomy news, something that will cheer you up is a paid subscription on Substack or sharing the post – it will feel like a glass of ice-cold Oboy in the summer heat.