The image above is not AI but taken from the latest staff meeting.
The day before yesterday we addressed one of the threats to Ukraine’s smashing victory, which is E3. Since the three musketeers met Zelensky on Sunday and I have been browsing Google a bit, this will not be another post on the subject but four links for you to delve into.
“The leaders called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree “an immediate and complete ceasefire” with the current line of contact as a starting point for any negotiations, Downing Street said”.
Now E3 has put this in front of Putin so the moment Ukraine gets its breakthrough this summer and the Russian bastards flee, Putin can agree to this and slip out of this year’s crushing defeat. Provided Ukraine answers the phone, but that’s the underlying idea that counts.
We can safely assume that Ukraine very well understands the hidden agenda here, but whether they can hold out – we shall see, and I sincerely hope so.
Apparently, LNG deliveries from the USA to Europe dropped in May 2026 from the normal curve, which is a problem for everyone in E3 since winter reserves were already 25% below the level they should be for the year.
Since we usually have 30% left in reserves when winter ends, and winter 2025/2026 only had 28% left, minus 25% is right on the edge of needing to ration this winter. Since this was not a deficit from full reserves but a quarter less than the level it should be at this date during the replenishment period, further delivery disruptions could still drag us below the critical level if we’re unlucky. Then there will be rationing this winter, and no political party in the world wants freezing citizens because then they will vote for anything but the incumbent party as soon as they can out of pure self-preservation.
I amused myself by digging a little deeper and Merz said as recently as the end of April 2026 that “Ukraine should give up some land for peace.”
Previously, only Putin and Trump had said that – Europe’s position has been to fully support Ukraine until they have reclaimed their land, but apparently you still can’t trust a German…
Then the Germans have just been caught selling huge amounts of equipment to the Russian arms industry. Whose side they are on is not always crystal clear.
Recently, many European bigwigs met in Montenegro to decide who we will welcome into the warmth of the EU going forward. Albania is very welcome, but France and Germany absolutely do not want Ukraine to be welcomed into our warmth too quickly at all.
Zelensky has relatively recently expressed dissatisfaction with Merz wanting to slow down Ukraine’s path to the EU because he thinks Ukraine deserves full membership. I also think they should get it – immediately.
Why Europe is acting like this today in 2026 is actually hard to explain; I would guess that the Nordics (Northern Europe), the Baltics, and Poland do not agree with E3 at all, so maybe we are about to form our own unified voice within the EU with a bit of luck, just as we have done with JEF.
If there were to be a ceasefire, Putin would just bring out the next Surovikin who plants a 10 km deep minefield along the then frozen front line. After that, the land east of that minefield is practically lost forever, no matter how many agreements are signed to the contrary, because all momentum disappears in Skype meetings and long email chains. Just that knowledge alone allows Putin to accelerate dangerously when collapse is imminent instead of having to work with generous margins of error – the day he wants a ceasefire he just calls E3.
Enough about E3,
USA, led by Trump, and China are the other two most acute obstacles to eternal peace because they escalate separately in their own ways.
If anyone thought China is the country where peace grows, they have actually built up Russia’s arms industry since 2023 to function quite well, unfortunately. The drones that Russia shoots into the rest of Europe are made in China, and the newly built Russian threat against us is also thanks to the Chinese.
The Russians have already burned through their emergency reserves, and what they can now threaten us with is new equipment from Chinese-built production lines.
Japan put it nicely the other day when China accused the Japanese of rearming for a new war of aggression in Asia – “it is China that has a huge arsenal of weapons and threatens everyone in the neighborhood, not us.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp8p4ejy8ppo
We have gone through the lie that China never starts wars, but post WW2 they amused themselves with mass murder and ethnic cleansing of their own citizens instead of interstate wars.
Right now, it is the Uyghurs who are in the genocide firing line; either they are made pregnant with Han Chinese or sterilized to eventually wipe out the ethnic group.
A slow ethnic cleansing through forced infertility or rape.
Then we have China’s fishing fleet of 200,000 vessels (estimates range from 50,000 to 800,000…) that bottom trawl enormous amounts of protected and endangered ecosystems inside other countries’ territorial waters – some kind of modern fishing pirates doing this just because they can.
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/fishing-and-force-china-s-dark-fleets-and-maritime-militias
In the South China Sea, China discovers a small islet just barely sticking above the water surface, or even better, an underwater reef, and immediately comes with lots of dredgers to create land. Then they claim it has always looked like that, and that it has always been theirs, and expand their territorial waters or economic zone in a circle around this newly “engaged” land that “has always been there.” A bit like Columbus but with lots of rusty dredgers.
Then, to not take any chances in their diligent pursuit of world peace and happy trade, they immediately move air defenses, anti-ship missiles, surface combatants, and advanced aircraft there so the island, which has always been there, becomes a spiky violent hedgehog to promote world trade.
In May, China had over 100 ships from its fleet around Taiwan in various exercises also for world peace and trade – that record is starting to get a bit scratched, soon they will probably conquer Taiwan for world peace and trade.
https://thediplomat.com/2026/05/chinas-navy-is-shifting-pressure-beyond-the-taiwan-strait
Recently, Trump went to China for a personal meeting with Xi, and the week after Putin went there. From China, you can probably guess what you heard: “peace and trade are better than war.” Of course, Trump couldn’t help himself and after a day went on camera saying Taiwan must fend for itself, not his problem. Before that, he had said Taiwan was not mentioned with a word at the meeting, but it’s not very hard to see what was the most important topic for China to discuss at that meeting, a big point in Arial font 24 on the meeting minutes.
That Putin – Trump have agreed on a whole chain of events is indisputable to me; Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, Ukraine, and Iran all in 2026. This is not common, and normally one starts some conflict, sees how it goes, adjusts, and then presses on. In 2026, the US has pressed all the keys on the keyboard at once.
The US has not been idle at all, and the agreement seems to have been that Trump would do what he can to get the feisty Ukrainians to choose peace, which he really tried, and then look away from the Baltics and Svalbard no matter what happens in the Baltics and Svalbard.
The US took its payment immediately, but Russia continued to fail in Ukraine, which one cannot blame Trump for. Trump then has a reality to relate to where he also must balance the rest of the US administration and us in Europe – he cannot go too far.
What Trump’s administration has done recently after the meeting with Xi is to start withdrawing capabilities from Eastern Europe. We have gone through this a couple of times already; it is probably the two offensive units: the Stryker Brigade in Germany and the 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division, which were to rotate into Poland but are now disappearing.
In addition, an artillery unit was slowed down and “staff functions shall be withdrawn.” The timelines were of course accelerated immediately, but then Trump promised new units directly, which he can hold back for as long as he wants.
If you read Johan No.1’s earlier post on the subject, we guessed there would be more – and naturally, there was more.
Now it seems the timeline has accelerated further to the immediate near future.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-planning-faster-troop-withdrawal-europe-newspaper-says-2026-05-30
Then the 1,000 soldiers currently in Lithuania will rotate out as planned, and their replacements have naturally been delayed, so the capability unfortunately disappears.
As far as I can see, the US has now withdrawn most of the units from the spearhead in Eastern Europe.
Artillery, you might think, no big deal that their deployment to Europe was canceled – it was the 3rd battalion from the 12th artillery regiment, which is of course a HIMARS battalion perfect for operating beyond drone range on the 2026 battlefield. We know from the Ukraine war that a HIMARS battalion with good intelligence can cause enormous damage.
The staff functions – that is at least a nothing burger, Johan No.1 screams in several posts without reason,
“Long-Range Fires Command: The US is removing a command from Europe that specializes in firing long-range rockets and missiles, in conjunction with the cancellation of a planned long-range fires battalion deployment to Germany.
Intelligence and Special Operations Positions: The US is eliminating roughly 200 staff positions within allied intelligence and special operations, specifically affecting the UK-based NATO Intelligence Fusion Centre and the Allied Special Operations Forces Command in Brussels”.
The US has just cut off the head of the staff functions for long-range capabilities, joint intelligence gathering, and SOF – now we have to fill those functions.
Do you think they took all the login passwords and changed the SIM cards for WhatsApp?
You can interpret this as you wish, but since it comes directly after Trump-Xi-Putin met in 2026, and after the US has been allowed to invade somewhat freely in countries within Russia’s and China’s spheres of interest, we should probably fear the worst – this is what Putin asked Trump for.
Why he did it remains, of course, to be seen.
At a minimum, it leaves a gap of two offensive brigades, 1,000 in Lithuania, critical staff functions, and a long-range artillery battalion with HIMARS, all of which would have fought in the Baltics in the event of war.
If I manage to read correctly below, this is then everything that was in Lithuania, the only brigade that was to be in Poland, and the only brigade in Germany besides the extra capability the artillery battalion would have added?
There remains an American heavy battalion in SE Estonia besides 250 soldiers in Latvia, which I do not know what unit they belong to.
“One reason for the caution of the Baltic states when it comes to Trump is linked to the need to retain a U.S. military presence. Estonia has said it hosts about 600 U.S. service members; Latvia has a continuous rotational U.S. contingent; and Lithuania has rotating U.S. heavy battalions and an additional artillery unit”.
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2026/05/baltics-nato-defense-russia
Estonia is worried that the US will withdraw the heavy battalion that is with them at least.
https://news.err.ee/1610045902/estonia-has-no-clarity-on-rotating-us-unit-minister-says
The American battalion in SE Estonia is scheduled to rotate out at the end of summer (and another rotate in) according to Google AI.
“The U.S. Army unit at Camp Reedo (near Võru, Estonia) belongs to the 1st Cavalry Division. While exact handover dates can shift, recent rotations have historically occurred in late summer/early fall, with previous handovers taking place in mid-to-late September”.
Who will pick up this baton so quickly that no gaps arise in our violent stumble thread in the Baltics?
Already now before the holidays, do you think, or will we in Europe start discussing it at the school start in August by trying to find meeting dates for early September?
It is soon Midsummer and then everyone will go on vacation with their families – no one wants to miss a sunny summer in the archipelago.
Sometimes one almost suspects that Trump does not trust his troop commanders in Europe because it costs a lot of pesetas to cancel scheduled movements when equipment has already arrived.
Trump has expressed reluctance to defend the Baltics occasionally but has of course also promised many times to defend the Baltics to the last bullet – a lot of smoke there, so nothing concrete to go on. How he will defend the Baltics without any artillery remains to be clarified.
The posts about Operation Baltic assume, as said, that the US remains passive. Now there is only one battalion left in the area in case of conflict when 90% of the spearhead leaves the area, so by definition, I would say that equates to passivity on the part of the US.
Right now BALTOPS is ongoing in the Baltic Sea but it ends days before Midsummer, after which the NATO calendar is empty, and I find nothing else with anyone else.
https://shape.nato.int/exercises/allied-national-exercises
https://www.grosswald.org/nato-exercises-2026
Are we taking summer break this critical summer?
Anyone who has done military service knows well that on Midsummer Day the Soviets would attack Sweden, either then or on Christmas Day since both dates guarantee hangovers or sleeping in. Then the end of July/beginning of August is completely dead – everyone is sitting in the sun eating ice cream all over Europe.
What standing violent capabilities do we in Europe have in the Baltics that do not take summer break?
–Estonia; 900-1,500 British-led force based 70 km east of Tallinn for defense in the NE part of the country.
–Latvia; our Swedish BaltBat of 600 (?) based in the Riga area just north of the Daugava and the Canadian-led brigade of 3,500 in the same area which is full brigade strength in a mosaic of several nations – defense area as below.
Comment;
-Spain has a mechanized battalion in the Canadian-led brigade. Their government is a coalition where the largest party is helped by the far left and far right, and these can be suspected to be influenced by RU. If there is anything RU seems to want, it is to remove as many international units as possible from the Baltics.
Spain intends to reinforce the area, but the battalion is also to be rotated out now in June; it’s a good time to keep an eye on the replacements so there isn’t a gap over the holidays?
– it also seems that the brigade commander is to be rotated out this summer?
The rotation of the NATO Multinational Brigade in Latvia Commander position takes place every 12 months. From June 26 2025 Colonel Kristopher Reeves is the Commander of the NATO Multinational Brigade in Latvia.
https://www.mod.gov.lv/en/nato/nato-capabilities/nato-multinational-brigade-latvia
-I’m beginning to understand why Trump has been so hard on Canada since he took office; Putin wants to get rid of that brigade. Besides what Trump directly controls, the Canadian-led brigade is the largest armored fist north of the magical Daugava line. They are simply in the way, and the risk is quite imminent that additional units will be attached to that structure over time.
–Lithuania; Poland has promised to keep the Suwalki Gap open if Lithuania is attacked, which there is no reason to doubt; Poland is ready for war.
Germany has 40% of its 45th armored brigade in place in Lithuania. It seems to be one armored battalion and one mechanized infantry battalion plus some miscellaneous units from other countries subordinated to them. By 2027 the entire brigade should be in place. Wikipedia suggests that the second armored battalion will arrive already this year, which would mean all combat units are in place.
I think I have pieced it together; below is Wikipedia on the numbers of NATO forward presence including the USA, so it seems roughly correct.
If we stick to the area north of the Daugava and assume that the American heavy battalion in Estonia will rotate out during the summer as scheduled, we then have up to 1500 British-led forces in the Tallinn area and 600 + 3500 in Latvia consisting of various nationalities. Provided that the Spanish battalion to be rotated in June appears as scheduled.
I am really trying to understand exactly where the Canadian-led brigade intends to defend so I can leak it to Putin, but it was harder than I thought.
At least they have grouped themselves for defense at four locations in eastern Latvia.
One of the locations is Daugavpils, which borders Belarus; a low probability is that they are also in the area around Rezekne, but not at battalion strength.
Digression begins.
Estonia and Latvia have armed forces of just over 6000 each and can mobilize perhaps 40,000 each according to their own claims within 24 hours. All their brigades must undergo mobilization to reach full strength. Without knowing, I guess they have spread out mobilization depots in their base areas located west of the operational areas.
According to the Swedish model – upon mobilization or heightened alert, personnel go to their mobilization depots, equip themselves, and companies that reach full strength move out to staging areas in the field. What we expected during the Cold War was that Spetsnaz (everything was apparently Spetsnaz to us then, but in reality, it’s probably a mosaic of them, reconnaissance, local assets + FSB, GRU, and SVR?) stood in our police and military uniforms along the access roads and after stopping cars simply shot unarmed personnel.
They would blow up culverts, bridges, and railway tracks, bombs against crowded train stations, and outright ambushes against vehicles. In addition, they would blow up mobilization depots entirely and then stand at the mobilization depots in our uniforms to receive the arriving personnel.
We intended to counter this by mobilizing in time but also having home guard personnel, emergency police, and operators in place at protected objects even earlier than they could get there to meet them.
Today in 2026, there are also missiles against fixed targets and, of course, drone weapons; these were not the major threat in the early 90s when I was supposed to fight the Russian bastards with support from MekB10.
End of digression.
This is what the numbers look like, and if the USA pulls its heavy battalion from Estonia, there will be no international presence at all south of Tartu in Estonia.
In Lithuania, the international defense is probably between Daugavpils – Rezekne of a brigade + battalion. Between Rezekne and Tartu, there is thus no international soldier in a defensive position at all. The tripwire simply hasn’t been drawn yet in this 200 km wide area that Johan No.1 desperately wants.
Since the Canadians and Swedes are not complete idiots, they will try to avoid putting everything in Rezekne to also defend south of there – one needs to have an open retreat route over the Daugava if one intends to conduct an active delaying battle; that’s old news.
There are no bridges between Daugavpils – Jekapils, which of course does not prevent us from laying our own pontoon bridges, but these crossings must be defended.
One also needs to account for infiltrating units and airborne landings trying to cut off the defense – a deep defense that further drains the spearhead at strategic locations between Rezekne and Daugava crossings.
Previous analysis thus stands that NE Latvia and SE Estonia lie wide open to the type of attack where RU can infiltrate deep to delay mobilization and slow reinforcements from Poland. What they have in the area today that is tangible advances from the border westward in 4-5 attack groups not necessarily on roads as the ground bearing capacity is good – the warning time is very short where it is already underway as soon as we receive the information about “little green men” which Putin flatly denies and threatens full nuclear war over if we do not immediately apologize for the cheeky claim.
Then follows a second echelon (I guess that’s what it’s called in fine military terms?) that itself bands up from the northern front and rolls through TOLOs on the way; it’s 9 hours driving time + TOLO, so within a day they are staged after Ukraine has alerted that units have begun leaving the northern front.
The claim “we see no buildup of forces against the Baltics” still echoes between the walls among analysts and is more than naively optimistic because RU has two army corps and two divisions along the northern front in addition to North Korea’s 11th Army Corps which is sized for 80,000 strong.
The following units are tied to the new Leningrad military district; the larger formations are found at the northern front and northern Luhansk.
The 11th NK AC has flown in soldiers over several months now whom they try to mask in overalls or suits of all kinds of clothing.
That the 11th NK AC takes over border surveillance from divisions or army corps that are relocated is rock solid – this buildup of forces no one can see is sitting and eating sausages 9 hours driving time from the Baltic border, and is already part of the Leningrad military district.
The Latvians’ own (light) mechanized brigade seems to have the same operational area as the Canadian-led brigade. The urban areas of Daugavpils/Rezekne are to be defended by home guard brigades. These usually live nearby, but Rezekne is not a large enough town, so the soldiers reasonably need to get there first to be able to go on defense.
It is easy to see that Belarus’s early “force-posture” and mobilization aim to tie up as much of the defense as possible in their immediate area around Daugavpils and Vilnius. Which is not the area RU would try to conquer if they get a feeling – since autumn 2025 Johan No.1 has circled the area that European units categorically refuse to be in. You have, just like me, noticed that Belarus is “preparing for war” (a theater show), but you hear nothing at all from the Pskov area.
If Belarus had been preparing to go to war, Russia would have needed to strengthen the flank against the Baltics, and then they would have done the opposite – sneaked with Belarus and been open about the defense against the Baltics to try to act as a deterrent.
The Estonians have two light brigades, one defends up towards the NE and one shall defend down in the SE. The SE brigade is based in Võru, which means they must get there upon mobilization as it is not a standing unit.
Now I slipped back into the Baltics again, which was not the intention at all – there are many potential escalations but the Baltics are only our problem in Europe, so something we ourselves must ensure to solve if things go badly. No other country in the world will lift a finger for us – it is up to us to show sufficient strength against Putin so he refrains,
We have not done nearly enough despite everyone’s constant “we are well prepared, stop with your defeatism Johan No.1”.
We are not even prepared for the first wave of mobile units under our own drone umbrella that will just bypass towns like Rezekne where the defenders then get indirect capabilities over them and the dubious pleasure of going into hedgehog defense when the second echelon appears.
The fact is that our commitment in the Baltics today, summer 2026, is significantly weaker than it was in autumn 2025 when I thought it was urgent – it has gone backwards which can be considered somewhat of a world record even for us in Europe.
A clear practical action plan is conspicuously absent and Putin sees that best of all. Not to be confused with all the promises and agreements we have made about the units that shall be in the Baltics at increased threat level – a level we have already reached but units are disappearing from the area instead.
The least we should do is immediately replace the withdrawn American units with our own standing brigades. Today, June 9, I have not read anything about that – hopefully they are on their way (hope is the last thing to leave a person) but the most urgent dates are Midsummer’s Day and then the turn of July/August so they need to start moving now.
So I only got this far and got caught up in the Baltics again after my previous closing words, so the rest of the threats to world peace will have to wait until tomorrow – there is no need for a huge discussion about the Baltics from my side since I have only posted facts about numbers really which cannot be questioned as numbers are numbers. Everything else was just a tiresome repetition from my side.
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