The image above is not AI but taken from the latest staff meeting.
The day before yesterday we addressed one of the threats to Ukraine’s smashing victory, which is E3. Since the three musketeers met Zelensky on Sunday and I have been browsing Google a bit, this will not be another post on the subject but four links for you to delve into.
“The leaders called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree “an immediate and complete ceasefire” with the current line of contact as a starting point for any negotiations, Downing Street said”.
Now E3 has put this in front of Putin so the moment Ukraine gets its breakthrough this summer and the Russian bastards flee, Putin can agree to this and slip out of this year’s crushing defeat. Provided Ukraine answers the phone, but that’s the underlying idea that counts.
We can safely assume that Ukraine very well understands the hidden agenda here, but whether they can hold out – we shall see, and I sincerely hope so.
Apparently, LNG deliveries from the USA to Europe dropped in May 2026 from the normal curve, which is a problem for everyone in E3 since winter reserves were already 25% below the level they should be for the year.
Since we usually have 30% left in reserves when winter ends, and winter 2025/2026 only had 28% left, minus 25% is right on the edge of needing to ration this winter. Since this was not a deficit from full reserves but a quarter less than the level it should be at this date during the replenishment period, further delivery disruptions could still drag us below the critical level if we’re unlucky. Then there will be rationing this winter, and no political party in the world wants freezing citizens because then they will vote for anything but the incumbent party as soon as they can out of pure self-preservation.
I amused myself by digging a little deeper and Merz said as recently as the end of April 2026 that “Ukraine should give up some land for peace.”
Previously, only Putin and Trump had said that – Europe’s position has been to fully support Ukraine until they have reclaimed their land, but apparently you still can’t trust a German…
Then the Germans have just been caught selling huge amounts of equipment to the Russian arms industry. Whose side they are on is not always crystal clear.
Recently, many European bigwigs met in Montenegro to decide who we will welcome into the warmth of the EU going forward. Albania is very welcome, but France and Germany absolutely do not want Ukraine to be welcomed into our warmth too quickly at all.
Zelensky has relatively recently expressed dissatisfaction with Merz wanting to slow down Ukraine’s path to the EU because he thinks Ukraine deserves full membership. I also think they should get it – immediately.
Why Europe is acting like this today in 2026 is actually hard to explain; I would guess that the Nordics (Northern Europe), the Baltics, and Poland do not agree with E3 at all, so maybe we are about to form our own unified voice within the EU with a bit of luck, just as we have done with JEF.
If there were to be a ceasefire, Putin would just bring out the next Surovikin who plants a 10 km deep minefield along the then frozen front line. After that, the land east of that minefield is practically lost forever, no matter how many agreements are signed to the contrary, because all momentum disappears in Skype meetings and long email chains. Just that knowledge alone allows Putin to accelerate dangerously when collapse is imminent instead of having to work with generous margins of error – the day he wants a ceasefire he just calls E3.
Enough about E3,
USA, led by Trump, and China are the other two most acute obstacles to eternal peace because they escalate separately in their own ways.
If anyone thought China is the country where peace grows, they have actually built up Russia’s arms industry since 2023 to function quite well, unfortunately. The drones that Russia shoots into the rest of Europe are made in China, and the newly built Russian threat against us is also thanks to the Chinese.
The Russians have already burned through their emergency reserves, and what they can now threaten us with is new equipment from Chinese-built production lines.
Japan put it nicely the other day when China accused the Japanese of rearming for a new war of aggression in Asia – “it is China that has a huge arsenal of weapons and threatens everyone in the neighborhood, not us.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp8p4ejy8ppo
We have gone through the lie that China never starts wars, but post WW2 they amused themselves with mass murder and ethnic cleansing of their own citizens instead of interstate wars.
Right now, it is the Uyghurs who are in the genocide firing line; either they are made pregnant with Han Chinese or sterilized to eventually wipe out the ethnic group.
A slow ethnic cleansing through forced infertility or rape.
Then we have China’s fishing fleet of 200,000 vessels (estimates range from 50,000 to 800,000…) that bottom trawl enormous amounts of protected and endangered ecosystems inside other countries’ territorial waters – some kind of modern fishing pirates doing this just because they can.
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/fishing-and-force-china-s-dark-fleets-and-maritime-militias
In the South China Sea, China discovers a small islet just barely sticking above the water surface, or even better, an underwater reef, and immediately comes with lots of dredgers to create land. Then they claim it has always looked like that, and that it has always been theirs, and expand their territorial waters or economic zone in a circle around this newly “engaged” land that “has always been there.” A bit like Columbus but with lots of rusty dredgers.
Then, to not take any chances in their diligent pursuit of world peace and happy trade, they immediately move air defenses, anti-ship missiles, surface combatants, and advanced aircraft there so the island, which has always been there, becomes a spiky violent hedgehog to promote world trade.
In May, China had over 100 ships from its fleet around Taiwan in various exercises also for world peace and trade – that record is starting to get a bit scratched, soon they will probably conquer Taiwan for world peace and trade.
https://thediplomat.com/2026/05/chinas-navy-is-shifting-pressure-beyond-the-taiwan-strait
Recently, Trump went to China for a personal meeting with Xi, and the week after Putin went there. From China, you can probably guess what you heard: “peace and trade are better than war.” Of course, Trump couldn’t help himself and after a day went on camera saying Taiwan must fend for itself, not his problem. Before that, he had said Taiwan was not mentioned with a word at the meeting, but it’s not very hard to see what was the most important topic for China to discuss at that meeting, a big point in Arial font 24 on the meeting minutes.
That Putin – Trump have agreed on a whole chain of events is indisputable to me; Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, Ukraine, and Iran all in 2026. This is not common, and normally one starts some conflict, sees how it goes, adjusts, and then presses on. In 2026, the US has pressed all the keys on the keyboard at once.
The US has not been idle at all, and the agreement seems to have been that Trump would do what he can to get the feisty Ukrainians to choose peace, which he really tried, and then look away from the Baltics and Svalbard no matter what happens in the Baltics and Svalbard.
The US took its payment immediately, but Russia continued to fail in Ukraine, which one cannot blame Trump for. Trump then has a reality to relate to where he also must balance the rest of the US administration and us in Europe – he cannot go too far.
What Trump’s administration has done recently after the meeting with Xi is to start withdrawing capabilities from Eastern Europe. We have gone through this a couple of times already; it is probably the two offensive units: the Stryker Brigade in Germany and the 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division, which were to rotate into Poland but are now disappearing.
In addition, an artillery unit was slowed down and “staff functions shall be withdrawn.” The timelines were of course accelerated immediately, but then Trump promised new units directly, which he can hold back for as long as he wants.
If you read Johan No.1’s earlier post on the subject, we guessed there would be more – and naturally, there was more.
Now it seems the timeline has accelerated further to the immediate near future.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-planning-faster-troop-withdrawal-europe-newspaper-says-2026-05-30
Then the 1,000 soldiers currently in Lithuania will rotate out as planned, and their replacements have naturally been delayed, so the capability unfortunately disappears.
As far as I can see, the US has now withdrawn most of the units from the spearhead in Eastern Europe.
Artillery, you might think, no big deal that their deployment to Europe was canceled – it was the 3rd battalion from the 12th artillery regiment, which is of course a HIMARS battalion perfect for operating beyond drone range on the 2026 battlefield. We know from the Ukraine war that a HIMARS battalion with good intelligence can cause enormous damage.
The staff functions – that is at least a nothing burger, Johan No.1 screams in several posts without reason,
“Long-Range Fires Command: The US is removing a command from Europe that specializes in firing long-range rockets and missiles, in conjunction with the cancellation of a planned long-range fires battalion deployment to Germany.
Intelligence and Special Operations Positions: The US is eliminating roughly 200 staff positions within allied intelligence and special operations, specifically affecting the UK-based NATO Intelligence Fusion Centre and the Allied Special Operations Forces Command in Brussels”.
The US has just cut off the head of the staff functions for long-range capabilities, joint intelligence gathering, and SOF – now we have to fill those functions.
Do you think they took all the login passwords and changed the SIM cards for WhatsApp?
You can interpret this as you wish, but since it comes directly after Trump-Xi-Putin met in 2026, and after the US has been allowed to invade somewhat freely in countries within Russia’s and China’s spheres of interest, we should probably fear the worst – this is what Putin asked Trump for.
Why he did it remains, of course, to be seen.
At a minimum, it leaves a gap of two offensive brigades, 1,000 in Lithuania, critical staff functions, and a long-range artillery battalion with HIMARS, all of which would have fought in the Baltics in the event of war.
If I manage to read correctly below, this is then everything that was in Lithuania, the only brigade that was to be in Poland, and the only brigade in Germany besides the extra capability the artillery battalion would have added?
There remains an American heavy battalion in SE Estonia besides 250 soldiers in Latvia, which I do not know what unit they belong to.
“One reason for the caution of the Baltic states when it comes to Trump is linked to the need to retain a U.S. military presence. Estonia has said it hosts about 600 U.S. service members; Latvia has a continuous rotational U.S. contingent; and Lithuania has rotating U.S. heavy battalions and an additional artillery unit”.
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2026/05/baltics-nato-defense-russia
Estonia is worried that the US will withdraw the heavy battalion that is with them at least.
https://news.err.ee/1610045902/estonia-has-no-clarity-on-rotating-us-unit-minister-says
The American battalion in SE Estonia is scheduled to rotate out at the end of summer (and another rotate in) according to Google AI.
“The U.S. Army unit at Camp Reedo (near Võru, Estonia) belongs to the 1st Cavalry Division. While exact handover dates can shift, recent rotations have historically occurred in late summer/early fall, with previous handovers taking place in mid-to-late September”.
Who will pick up this baton so quickly that no gaps arise in our violent stumble thread in the Baltics?
Already now before the holidays, do you think, or will we in Europe start discussing it at the school start in August by trying to find meeting dates for early September?
It is soon Midsummer and then everyone will go on vacation with their families – no one wants to miss a sunny summer in the archipelago.
Sometimes one almost suspects that Trump does not trust his troop commanders in Europe because it costs a lot of pesetas to cancel scheduled movements when equipment has already arrived.
Trump has expressed reluctance to defend the Baltics occasionally but has of course also promised many times to defend the Baltics to the last bullet – a lot of smoke there, so nothing concrete to go on. How he will defend the Baltics without any artillery remains to be clarified.
The posts about Operation Baltic assume, as said, that the US remains passive. Now there is only one battalion left in the area in case of conflict when 90% of the spearhead leaves the area, so by definition, I would say that equates to passivity on the part of the US.
Right now BALTOPS is ongoing in the Baltic Sea but it ends days before Midsummer, after which the NATO calendar is empty, and I find nothing else with anyone else.
https://shape.nato.int/exercises/allied-national-exercises
https://www.grosswald.org/nato-exercises-2026
Are we taking summer break this critical summer?
Anyone who has done military service knows well that on Midsummer Day the Soviets would attack Sweden, either then or on Christmas Day since both dates guarantee hangovers or sleeping in. Then the end of July/beginning of August is completely dead – everyone is sitting in the sun eating ice cream all over Europe.
What standing violent capabilities do we in Europe have in the Baltics that do not take summer break?
–Estonia; 900-1,500 British-led force based 70 km east of Tallinn for defense in the NE part of the country.
–Latvia; our Swedish BaltBat of 600 (?) based in the Riga area just north of the Daugava and the Canadian-led brigade of 3,500 in the same area which is full brigade strength in a mosaic of several nations – defense area as below.
Comment;
-Spain has a mechanized battalion in the Canadian-led brigade. Their government is a coalition where the largest party is helped by the far left and far right, and these can be suspected to be influenced by RU. If there is anything RU seems to want, it is to remove as many international units as possible from the Baltics.
Spain intends to reinforce the area, but the battalion is also to be rotated out now in June; it’s a good time to keep an eye on the replacements so there isn’t a gap over the holidays?
– it also seems that the brigade commander is to be rotated out this summer?
The rotation of the NATO Multinational Brigade in Latvia Commander position takes place every 12 months. From June 26 2025 Colonel Kristopher Reeves is the Commander of the NATO Multinational Brigade in Latvia.
https://www.mod.gov.lv/en/nato/nato-capabilities/nato-multinational-brigade-latvia
-I’m beginning to understand why Trump has been so hard on Canada since he took office; Putin wants to get rid of that brigade. Besides what Trump directly controls, the Canadian-led brigade is the largest armored fist north of the magical Daugava line. They are simply in the way, and the risk is quite imminent that additional units will be attached to that structure over time.
–Lithuania; Poland has promised to keep the Suwalki Gap open if Lithuania is attacked, which there is no reason to doubt; Poland is ready for war.
Germany has 40% of its 45th armored brigade in place in Lithuania. It seems to be one armored battalion and one mechanized infantry battalion plus some miscellaneous units from other countries subordinated to them. By 2027 the entire brigade should be in place. Wikipedia suggests that the second armored battalion will arrive already this year, which would mean all combat units are in place.
I think I have pieced it together; below is Wikipedia on the numbers of NATO forward presence including the USA, so it seems roughly correct.
If we stick to the area north of the Daugava and assume that the American heavy battalion in Estonia will rotate out during the summer as scheduled, we then have up to 1500 British-led forces in the Tallinn area and 600 + 3500 in Latvia consisting of various nationalities. Provided that the Spanish battalion to be rotated in June appears as scheduled.
I am really trying to understand exactly where the Canadian-led brigade intends to defend so I can leak it to Putin, but it was harder than I thought.
At least they have grouped themselves for defense at four locations in eastern Latvia.
One of the locations is Daugavpils, which borders Belarus; a low probability is that they are also in the area around Rezekne, but not at battalion strength.
Digression begins.
Estonia and Latvia have armed forces of just over 6000 each and can mobilize perhaps 40,000 each according to their own claims within 24 hours. All their brigades must undergo mobilization to reach full strength. Without knowing, I guess they have spread out mobilization depots in their base areas located west of the operational areas.
According to the Swedish model – upon mobilization or heightened alert, personnel go to their mobilization depots, equip themselves, and companies that reach full strength move out to staging areas in the field. What we expected during the Cold War was that Spetsnaz (everything was apparently Spetsnaz to us then, but in reality, it’s probably a mosaic of them, reconnaissance, local assets + FSB, GRU, and SVR?) stood in our police and military uniforms along the access roads and after stopping cars simply shot unarmed personnel.
They would blow up culverts, bridges, and railway tracks, bombs against crowded train stations, and outright ambushes against vehicles. In addition, they would blow up mobilization depots entirely and then stand at the mobilization depots in our uniforms to receive the arriving personnel.
We intended to counter this by mobilizing in time but also having home guard personnel, emergency police, and operators in place at protected objects even earlier than they could get there to meet them.
Today in 2026, there are also missiles against fixed targets and, of course, drone weapons; these were not the major threat in the early 90s when I was supposed to fight the Russian bastards with support from MekB10.
End of digression.
This is what the numbers look like, and if the USA pulls its heavy battalion from Estonia, there will be no international presence at all south of Tartu in Estonia.
In Lithuania, the international defense is probably between Daugavpils – Rezekne of a brigade + battalion. Between Rezekne and Tartu, there is thus no international soldier in a defensive position at all. The tripwire simply hasn’t been drawn yet in this 200 km wide area that Johan No.1 desperately wants.
Since the Canadians and Swedes are not complete idiots, they will try to avoid putting everything in Rezekne to also defend south of there – one needs to have an open retreat route over the Daugava if one intends to conduct an active delaying battle; that’s old news.
There are no bridges between Daugavpils – Jekapils, which of course does not prevent us from laying our own pontoon bridges, but these crossings must be defended.
One also needs to account for infiltrating units and airborne landings trying to cut off the defense – a deep defense that further drains the spearhead at strategic locations between Rezekne and Daugava crossings.
Previous analysis thus stands that NE Latvia and SE Estonia lie wide open to the type of attack where RU can infiltrate deep to delay mobilization and slow reinforcements from Poland. What they have in the area today that is tangible advances from the border westward in 4-5 attack groups not necessarily on roads as the ground bearing capacity is good – the warning time is very short where it is already underway as soon as we receive the information about “little green men” which Putin flatly denies and threatens full nuclear war over if we do not immediately apologize for the cheeky claim.
Then follows a second echelon (I guess that’s what it’s called in fine military terms?) that itself bands up from the northern front and rolls through TOLOs on the way; it’s 9 hours driving time + TOLO, so within a day they are staged after Ukraine has alerted that units have begun leaving the northern front.
The claim “we see no buildup of forces against the Baltics” still echoes between the walls among analysts and is more than naively optimistic because RU has two army corps and two divisions along the northern front in addition to North Korea’s 11th Army Corps which is sized for 80,000 strong.
The following units are tied to the new Leningrad military district; the larger formations are found at the northern front and northern Luhansk.
The 11th NK AC has flown in soldiers over several months now whom they try to mask in overalls or suits of all kinds of clothing.
That the 11th NK AC takes over border surveillance from divisions or army corps that are relocated is rock solid – this buildup of forces no one can see is sitting and eating sausages 9 hours driving time from the Baltic border, and is already part of the Leningrad military district.
The Latvians’ own (light) mechanized brigade seems to have the same operational area as the Canadian-led brigade. The urban areas of Daugavpils/Rezekne are to be defended by home guard brigades. These usually live nearby, but Rezekne is not a large enough town, so the soldiers reasonably need to get there first to be able to go on defense.
It is easy to see that Belarus’s early “force-posture” and mobilization aim to tie up as much of the defense as possible in their immediate area around Daugavpils and Vilnius. Which is not the area RU would try to conquer if they get a feeling – since autumn 2025 Johan No.1 has circled the area that European units categorically refuse to be in. You have, just like me, noticed that Belarus is “preparing for war” (a theater show), but you hear nothing at all from the Pskov area.
If Belarus had been preparing to go to war, Russia would have needed to strengthen the flank against the Baltics, and then they would have done the opposite – sneaked with Belarus and been open about the defense against the Baltics to try to act as a deterrent.
The Estonians have two light brigades, one defends up towards the NE and one shall defend down in the SE. The SE brigade is based in Võru, which means they must get there upon mobilization as it is not a standing unit.
Now I slipped back into the Baltics again, which was not the intention at all – there are many potential escalations but the Baltics are only our problem in Europe, so something we ourselves must ensure to solve if things go badly. No other country in the world will lift a finger for us – it is up to us to show sufficient strength against Putin so he refrains,
We have not done nearly enough despite everyone’s constant “we are well prepared, stop with your defeatism Johan No.1”.
We are not even prepared for the first wave of mobile units under our own drone umbrella that will just bypass towns like Rezekne where the defenders then get indirect capabilities over them and the dubious pleasure of going into hedgehog defense when the second echelon appears.
The fact is that our commitment in the Baltics today, summer 2026, is significantly weaker than it was in autumn 2025 when I thought it was urgent – it has gone backwards which can be considered somewhat of a world record even for us in Europe.
A clear practical action plan is conspicuously absent and Putin sees that best of all. Not to be confused with all the promises and agreements we have made about the units that shall be in the Baltics at increased threat level – a level we have already reached but units are disappearing from the area instead.
The least we should do is immediately replace the withdrawn American units with our own standing brigades. Today, June 9, I have not read anything about that – hopefully they are on their way (hope is the last thing to leave a person) but the most urgent dates are Midsummer’s Day and then the turn of July/August so they need to start moving now.
So I only got this far and got caught up in the Baltics again after my previous closing words, so the rest of the threats to world peace will have to wait until tomorrow – there is no need for a huge discussion about the Baltics from my side since I have only posted facts about numbers really which cannot be questioned as numbers are numbers. Everything else was just a tiresome repetition from my side.
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Balt…Baltic, Balt…Baltic.
(guess the tune)
👍 I might be completely wrong in my association, but I will think of a certain professor whose name happens to end with something that sounds like “tsar,” which makes the melody especially fitting in this context because that is exactly what Putin wants to rule over—the Baltics and the rest of the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNGciQjawI4
Right on the mark, as Sten Broman would have put it!
Here’s a free Sten Broman quote:
“You do know it’s called Rammlösa and not Raamlösa, as those language imbeciles in Stockholm think. But they probably say saamlag too!”
😂👍
Sten Broman was also an artist. Maybe not a Rembrandt, but many believe he had talent.
In the captain’s private dining room on the train ferry “Malmöhus” hung a hand-painted picture by Sten Broman.
It showed something that resembled a black ball, surrounded by huge poisonous green leaves and was called “Snake seen from behind in the jungle.”
🤣🤣
Haha! The old man had a wonderful sense of humor!
Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-06-10
GLORY TO UKRAINE
AFU reports:
Unpleasantly many KAB..
💥🔥👍✊
Ukraina slog till hårt mot Ryssland under natten. Samlar i hop lite blandat om det här.
Vi har alltså ett oljeraffinaderi samt en fabrik/anläggning “VNIIR-Progress” som tydligen bland annat tillverkar Shaheds och Kalbr.
Finns fler bilder och filmer i de flesta av länkarna för den som vill se mer.
** Ukrainian missiles, drones reportedly hit oil refinery, manufacturing site in long-range strikes on Russia.
An oil refinery in the Russian city of Samara was struck by Ukrainian drones, and a manufacturing facility in Cheboksary was targeted by missiles overnight on June 10, social media channels reported. **
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-oil-refinery-nearly-800-kilometers-from-border-reportedly-struck-by-ukrainian-drones/
**The Kuibyshev refinery in Samara, Russia, has been severely struck this morning, as well.** https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3mnvzrbqsr223
**❗️This morning, the Ukrainian cruise missile FP-5 “Flamingo” attacked the Russian defense enterprise “VNIIR-Progress” in Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic**
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mnvzpbn3ic2y
**❗️Tonight, 🇺🇦Ukrainian forces successfully carried out high-precision strikes on the 🇷🇺Kuibyshev Oil Refinery in Samara **
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mnvzbq4yb22y
**🦩Nature is healing and Ukrainian Flamingos have arrived in Cheboksary. VNIIR-Progress plant, making components for Shaheds, Kalibrs, and Iskanders was reportedly visited – 1000 km from Ukraine.**
https://bsky.app/profile/saintjavelin.bsky.social/post/3mnvyymlkbc2a
**The moment the VNIIR Progress electronics plant in Cheboksary, Chuvashia, in Russia got hit by one FP-5 cruise missile.**
https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3mnvyvq5yo223
** Ukraine launched a major overnight drone assault on Russia, striking an oil refinery in Samara and a factory producing components for Shahed drones and Russian missiles. Moscow claimed its air defenses shot down 326 drones across 20 regions. **
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/77866
That is 110% of everyone.
** Germany pledges 300 million euros to Czech ammunition initiative for Ukraine.
“Germany will contribute an additional 300 million euros to this initiative – that’s approximately 50,000 rounds of long-range ammunition,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said. **
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-oil-refinery-nearly-800-kilometers-from-border-reportedly-struck-by-ukrainian-drones/
** Drone attacks hit Russia’s Vladimir region, sparking fires at two infrastructure facilities, the regional governor said. The Vtorovo oil pumping station was among the affected sites, with Lobkovo also reported hit. **
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mnw26bmpcc2j
** FIRMS indeed picked up a fire at the Lobkovo oil pumping station after Ukrainian overnight attacks. **
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mnw2g6gwyk2j
Ukraine’s embassy in Sweden wants the government to initiate an investigation following the revelation that AstraZeneca hired trucking companies connected to a banned Belarusian transport company. This is stated by Vladyslav Vlasiuk, advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and responsible for sanctions issues in Ukraine, to SVT News.
Vlasiuk says it is “frightening” how easily logistics companies can circumvent sanctions against Russia.
– It is also very offensive.
SVT’s investigation has shown that AstraZeneca used two transport companies with several connections to the Belarusian trucking company Jenty, which is subject to EU sanctions. The pharmaceutical company has said that it will replace the two trucking companies.
But weren’t medicines exempt from the sanctions?
So Sweden is going to appoint an investigation to find out if the British company AZ has used haulers connected to Belarus? Seems complicated.
I guess AZ transports relatively few items (a can of pills is relatively small), and that here we are making a mountain out of a molehill? I’m not saying this is okay, I just find it hard to see that this would be the biggest culprit in the drama, I’m probably engaging in whataboutism, but I think the whole post from (S)(V)T seems like a commissioned job?
Off-Topic, the war in Iran
Because Iran shot down the Apache helicopter, Trump wanted to retaliate:
“Just before midnight Swedish time, the US military announced that it is attacking Iran in retaliation for the country, according to Donald Trump, shooting down an American attack helicopter. Around the same time, Trump was on a phone call with ABC News.
– I believe in responding strongly. I have always done that my whole life, says the president.
The US Central Command Centcom writes in a post on X that the operation is a ‘proportional response to unjustified Iranian aggression.’
– I believe the response should be very strong, very powerful, and that is what this is, says Trump.”
https://omni.se/trump-svaret-mot-iran-ar-valdigt-kraftfullt/a/2pmq9a
Iran responds as follows regarding the attacks:
“After the US attacked Iran in response to Iran, according to Donald Trump, shooting down an attack helicopter, explosions have been heard in several areas, reports Iranian state media according to Reuters.
In a post on X, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi urges the US to leave the area.
‘Our strong military will not leave any attack or threat unanswered,’ he writes.”
https://omni.se/iran-vi-lamnar-inga-hot-eller-attacker-obesvarade/a/RjOoOW
Then they attack:
“Iran has attacked American military bases in Jordan, according to the country’s Revolutionary Guard, several media outlets report. The escalation comes after the US attacked Iran in response to an American helicopter being shot down.
The attacks are said to be aimed at 21 targets in Jordan, including the Al Azraq airbase in the eastern part of the country. Iran is also said to have shot down drones in the Iranian area of Jam.
According to Jordan’s military, five missiles aimed at the airbase were shot down during the night, writes Sky News. However, no one is reported to have been injured or killed in the attacks.
Kuwait’s military also reports that their air defense system was activated after hostile objects were detected, they write on X. Air raid sirens were also reportedly heard in Bahrain.”
https://omni.se/iran-har-attackerat-amerikansk-militarbas-i-jordanien/a/y5Omjr
——
It is absolutely not a war, because the Senate does not allow it; it is just some kind of special military retaliation operation from the US side, so there is a ceasefire between the US and Iran.
Despite that, they attack each other. Schrödinger’s war, as I said.
If there were to be a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, I suspect we would get a similar situation there as well. That was roughly how it was between 2014 and 2022 when ceasefires were agreed upon several times but fighting continued anyway.
It might possibly be different this time if the EU, US, and others are involved in drafting an agreement so it is not just between Ukraine and Russia.
Sigh, the USA/Trump is now in the Middle Eastern hamster wheel. Revenge on revenge to infinity.
This will probably accelerate the phasing out of fossil fuels, except in the USA, where they have a reactionary president.
But first it will result in an economic downturn, and perhaps famine in some parts of the world.
**Sevastopol, Crimea 🔥🔥🤩**
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mnw6loywj22v
**🌉🚧 The Russian-appointed governor of occupied Kherson Oblast, Saldo, claims that Ukraine carried out a missile strike on a bridge connecting Henichesk with the Arabat Spit early this morning. Traffic between Henichesk and the Arabat Spit has been suspended following the attack.**
https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3mnvwct36x22q
Ukraine’s accession to the EU is an interesting topic. So far, the process has moved very quickly, and Ukraine is already ready to open 4 chapters in the accession process. However, hardly anyone believes that Ukraine could be finished by the turn of the year; even if the process goes as smoothly as it has so far, it is more realistic to assume that full membership lies a few years ahead.
It is in light of this that one should understand Germany’s proposal, that Ukraine already today, that is before it has formally become a full member, begins to participate in the Union’s internal work. The accession process can take a long time and politically it can be complicated by shifting majorities in EU countries (again, it is unrealistic to believe that the process can be completed during 2026).
My own reflection is that it would also give both Ukraine and the EU time to clarify what membership would look like if Ukraine still lacks control over its entire territory when the country becomes a member. That question is essential to resolve because Ukraine’s borders upon membership also become the EU’s borders.
The equation is harsh – the faster Ukraine wants to become a member, the larger part of the occupied territory risks ending up outside the EU, at least before the conflict is finally resolved.
https://www.bruegel.org/first-glance/symbolic-membership-ukraine-could-bring-practical-security-benefits-eu
Then wouldn’t the easiest thing be to not have an immediate ceasefire?
All Taurus to Ukraine would probably help the EU in that difficult matter?
When the country is retaken in the fall, they can join 😀
Exactly, and that is why all ceasefire proposals from Ukraine in various formats are constantly conditional in such a way that they become unacceptable to Putin.
As I said, I believe it is strategic communication, a part of the war of words aimed at the increasing number of Russians who realize that Putin is driving the country to hell. The offer is a ceasefire on *our* terms (and of course peace is not the same as a ceasefire).
Here is a recent example; this particular barbarian is far down the food chain, but there are probably bigger fish higher up in the system who also see the approaching storm.
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mnug2x6yq22p
Then it is Ukraine pushing for entry at the turn of the year. The faster the entry, the greater the risk that there will be territory left outside.
But we will see what happens soon. With some luck, Ukraine will have control over the southern front, Zapo, and Crimea as autumn approaches. And this autumn, the Russian economy may begin to dismantle itself according to some. Quite frankly, it is conceivable that Russia will then agree to Ukraine’s terms to get a ceasefire. But then we are post-Putin, I guess.
Hmm. Something like that. But I believe the pathology in the Kremlin is such that a compromise in the war of any kind is unacceptable. Until suddenly it is no longer so.
I also believe that all agreements and truces made with Putin only lead to continued war after they have rearmed.
A peace in the true sense of the word can only be achieved when Putin’s gang is gone, and that will happen when Russia’s economy collapses, when the front collapses, or when Putin dies, whichever comes first.
Exactly
Can add to the above that the lasting peace for Europe will occur when Russia collapses and ceases to exist as a coherent empire.
Did you notice that the site was slow yesterday afternoon?
The reason was that we were subjected to a denial-of-service attack.
Since the sneaky rascals spread out from multiple directions, there were quite few requests from the same IP address, which makes it difficult to distinguish from normal visits, so you can’t automatically block them without risking blocking legitimate users. Since the IP addresses also change frequently, many are not listed in blacklists, so checking against those only helps partially.
It therefore takes a while to detect that an attack is ongoing before it reaches the level where the server struggles to deliver, and then it takes some time to realize that it is due to an overload.
I realize that I need to refine the detection to get earlier warnings in order to stop it. It hasn’t really been necessary before since I don’t operate any large sites where it has been that interesting.
I did have a DDoS once a couple of years ago, with Russians who thought a site was connected to the F-15 airbase in Söderhamn (which it actually was, but the base is closed, so the site is about renting out premises). I saw it as a one-time event, but of course I should have looked into making improvements then, it will probably happen more times.
You can consider that as praise and proof that Johanno1 does what it’s supposed to do ✊🏻.
Have to console oneself with that! 👍
I found a dead mouse outside the office on Friday.
Don’t know how the FSB found me but I’m on my guard 😳
Surely just a lost cat 😨..?
Have armed myself with a fork today and am practicing aikido 😡
😂
Aikido with a pitchfork probably surpasses most things 😀
Thank you for another yellow wall. 👍
I still agree that the Baltics (together with Svalbard) are the big worry in case of an escalation from the Russian bastards.
When it comes to E3 together with Ukraine, the situation is more intricate and Z ensures that they have the information advantage regarding the peace narrative.
Listened to the latest Frontline with Scott Lucas yesterday.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/48LF1sXmJTj8d4c6nJ4c3A?si=dBPd9nIYS4SeRuiOp6Vv7A
+ 1
What REALLY annoys me a lot is that the threat would disappear if we send the brigades into the Baltics, but now we’re pulling them out instead.
The answers to the latest posts were that we have “lots of defense” in the Baltics, but in a 200km damn wide area there isn’t a single soldier, zero 😐
Putin has already shown that he doesn’t think like us – a classic mistake to assume your own patterns of behavior and apply them to the opponent.
Thank you yourself Pehr ✊✊
Thank you Johan for the post, as usual worth reading and it does make me a bit worried. Trump is doing everything to sabotage us, and it is distressing that “we” are not acting quickly and decisively regarding the Baltics.
Svt has at least woken up a bit and made a report in a couple of parts about Russia’s military buildup near Finland. I only saw an interview in the morning studio with the responsible reporter, so I have no idea how relevant it all is.
MTX, thanks for all the great explosions! Well done by Ukraine and you!
Thanks yourself alfaomega ✊✊,
Yes, Trump is not on our side at all 😀
This autumn there will probably be a financial crisis as well on top of everything.
Thank you for today’s wall Johanno1 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻!
Thank you yourself Lynx ✊✊
Thank you, I will read ✊✊
UA has now taken out the second bridge to Crimea.
The last road down there is now significantly closer to the UA front 🤩🤩🤩
Going fast now, 71% of the maintenance already stopped.
Should have been a reference to MXT who wrote the above.
UA front are the roads ✊🏻.
10 login verification today 🤣🤣
Hard bids now!
An error in the article Jacobus – there are tangible formations at the northern front already today if the North Koreans take over border protection.
RU already has too much there.
They are absolutely right that a ceasefire means a runaway increase in threat perception.
Something for E3 to take on board maybe?
For Ukraine, it is only good if we get drawn into the war, no downside at all.
Interesting though, didn’t it say somewhere in the article/DR’s investigation that they prepared for around 80,000 men. Wasn’t that exactly the number that would be released if 80,000 North Koreans took over defense at the northern front?
The newly mobilized this autumn may well be trained there against Finland
Sitting and looking through Leningrad’s military district,
The head of the district is also the head of the northern front and an old fox who was involved in 2014, has been responsible for Syria and then survived in Ukraine since 2022.
Previously it was Lapin, sad that he was fired because he was Ukraine’s best friend 😀
The units connected to the military district are all located along the northern front and some AC in northern Luhansk.
—
The general perception that no capability has been built up against the Baltics is nonsense, they are 9 hours driving time away and the entire command structure and training tree is already built and fully trained.
It has also been quiet at the northern front since summer 2024 so all units there can build themselves up.
The key is probably the North Koreans who are behind, that they have been significantly strengthened now and RU is sneaking with it as much as they can, everyone should take that seriously.
Will return as part of some post about Leningrad’s military district but we are fundamentally wrong when we say that no capability is being built up – it is completely built, just disguised at the northern front so no one sees it…
Never trust anything until it is publicly denied, Stalin is said to have said.
That was definitely true in 2022 and surely also in 2026…
Russia’s ambassador to Denmark, Vladimir Barbin, does not like Danish DR’s reporting on the Russian military buildup along the border with the Nordic countries and the Baltics. In the documentary “War Plan Europe,” it appears that the Kremlin is preparing for a possible war against the NATO countries around the Baltic Sea.
“Claims that Russia will soon decide to attack one or more NATO countries are a lie,” he writes in a comment to the channel.
DR, together with SVT, NRK, and Estonian Delfi, has investigated the Russian military buildup. Using satellite images, the media have shown that more and more barracks, warehouses, and military vehicles are appearing at the Russian border with Norway, Finland, and the Baltic countries.
https://omni.se/a/d4kGL1
Yes the contraindication 🤣🤣✊
Lynx – your comment above.
Moldova is moving towards the EU in parallel with Ukraine, right?
https://euneighbourseast.eu/news/latest-news/eu-to-open-first-accession-cluster-with-ukraine-and-moldova/
They have Russian troops stationed in Transnistria.
Exactly the same situation as Ukraine you mentioned above.
Merz and Macron do not say the same harsh things about Moldova at all. I find it hard to find anything they have said about Moldova.
Equal treatment is conspicuously absent…
Moldova is not at war with Russia and Russia does not occupy Moldovan territory, so I don’t really see the similarity.
Regardless, Moldova also has problems in the form of the breakaway regions. Moldova cannot join without either giving up this territory or getting rid of the breakaways (uniting all of Moldova). We will see what solution will be reached, but these are significant problems to solve.
Transnistria still belongs to Moldova even though Russia now occupies it with soldiers, right?
Russia has never declared war on Ukraine, right?
By the way, I did some maintenance that I thought would take about fifteen minutes, but of course it took longer.
So it was not any hacking attempts. I am in the process of overhauling the entire infrastructure, it will be really nice when it is finally finished, the maintenance will be so much easier (and without disruptions).
Aha. That was why. Thanks for the explanation.
Falling Russian pressure compared to yesterday’s report. The unlocalized pressure unchanged. The trend appears to be that Russian pressure is decreasing.
N Slobozhansky 6↗️
S Slobozhansky 11💥
Kupyansk 3
Lyman 14💥↘️
Slovyansk 13💥
Kramatorsk 0
Kostjantynivka 16💥↗️
Pokrovsk 40💥💥↘️
Oleksandrivskij 1↘️
Huliaipole 22💥↘️
Orikhivsk 6
Prydniprovskij 0
Localized 132↘️
Unlocalized 102
Total 232↘️
Ratio unloc/loc 0.77
👍
What do you think about the ads and those links that pop up everywhere? Google is running some experiment again (for 50% of visitors so it doesn’t affect everyone, always).
Let me know if you find it annoying and I’ll stop it.
By the way, those links are completely pointless. If you try clicking on them, you get something completely different and it says that no relevant content could be found.
I have no problem with this advertisement. (However, it is usually very irrelevant).
“A 34-year-old man is being prosecuted on suspicion of attempted espionage on behalf of Russia, writes the Prosecutor’s Office in a press release.
– The suspect has previously worked within the Armed Forces and has in his former work had access to information with very high protection value, says prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist in the press release.
According to him, the suspected man is said to have attempted to reveal the information during a trip to Moscow in November 2025. The 34-year-old is said to have met representatives of the Russian intelligence and security service there.
The man has been in custody since the beginning of January this year. In addition to espionage, he is also charged with unlawful stalking. He is previously suspected of conspiracy to murder in Moscow, which among other things SVT News has reported on.”
https://omni.se/34-aring-atalas-forsokte-spionera-for-ryssland/a/OkjzJE
—
“The 34-year-old man who is being prosecuted on suspicion of attempted espionage called the Russian intelligence and security service FSB’s official number 24 times. This is reported by TV4 News. The man also admits that during a visit to Moscow he met FSB employees.
The police located the man’s car in January after a guard at the National Defence Radio Establishment alerted that he felt followed. The 34-year-old is said to have behaved ‘abnormally’ and upon inspection a computer, several USB drives, and three folders with documents written in Cyrillic letters were found.
Before that, he had for a long time claimed that he was being followed by the FRA, which pressured him to ‘seek protection from a foreign power.'”
https://omni.se/spionmisstankte-mannen-ringde-fsb-24-ganger/a/2pmbPr
❗️🇺🇦Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet using 🇫🇷French AASMHAMMER guided aerial bomb destroys 🇷🇺Russian base in Tyotkino Kursk region
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mnxa644r4c2f
🚀 The launcher of the Ukrainian missile complex “Neptune” has been adapted for the use of new Areion drone missiles, – Militarnyi Areion is supplied in a transport-launch container and can be launched from a standard self-propelled launcher of the missile complex “Neptune”.
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mnx6v2uetk2o
“That Putin – Trump agreed on a whole chain of events is indisputable to me; Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, Ukraine, and Iran all in 2026. … but Russia continued to fail in Ukraine, that is something you cannot blame Trump for.”
Isn’t that underestimating Ukraine and overestimating Russia/USA?
It is Ukraine that has drained all of Russia’s foreign legion Wagner in Bakhmut. And reduced Russia’s military influence around, for example, Venezuela and Syria.
Agree
Ukrainian forces have struck the Russian-occupied port in Mariupol in an attack targeting, among other things, fuel depots, power stations, and radar equipment, reports Kyiv Independent.
The operation was carried out by the Ukrainian security service SBU and has led to significant disruptions in Russian military logistics.
Mariupol remains one of Moscow’s most important logistical hubs in southern Ukraine and serves as a link between the occupied Donetsk region, Crimea, and Russia.
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-russian-occupied-mariupol-port-no-longer-operational-after-ukrainian-strikes-azov-corps-says/
Wasn’t it precisely in the Azov steelworks harbor that the battlefield for a prolonged fight between the Ukrainian forces and a numerically superior Russian operation took place?
Thank you Johan for yet another interesting yellow wall.
We live in interesting times, and it probably will get worse before it gets better. What could turn things upside down is if one of the leaders falls.
Looking at Iran, the fall of the leader mullah did not change their politics, but Iran is a theocracy, which means their political line (death to Israel and great Satan) is the prevailing line.
If Putin were to fall, the rest of the leadership would go after each other’s throats until the strongest wins, and he would likely distance himself from Putin’s politics and go hard against Putin’s friends to create his own power base. There is also a risk that he is worse and goes straight after the nuclear weapons, but then he would not last long.
It seems that Xi has positioned himself like a spider in the web here, directing both Putin and Trump. Russia collapses without China, and Xi also seems to be able to control Trump to some extent, probably with bribes.
There may be many losers after this; now I am speculating a bit with a very broad brush here.
In the USA, some will be richer, but many poorer, and the country itself will be insecure, divided on the brink of civil war, and its global influence will shrink significantly.
Europe could come out on top if we play our cards right, pull ourselves together and start projecting strength, and stop being moral police, or else we will be left poor and divided. Europe’s center of gravity will shift eastward and northward, with the Nordics, Ukraine, and Poland as economic and military powers.
Russia will be consumed from within by power struggles and returning soldiers who terrorize their surroundings before they drink themselves to death. Give them a few generations, and maybe they will start behaving like people.
China will lose market shares as they have made themselves unpopular with the rest of the world, enter a recession, and turn inward.
Israel will have to defend itself alone against Iran and other Islamists. Turkey will also get involved on the side. Israel feels that its existence is threatened and decides to turn the streets of Tehran into glass. This causes the rest of the world to turn against them, and so Israel’s history ends, and Turkey takes over Syria, Lebanon, and the remnants of Israel and becomes once again a great power in the Middle East.
During this turbulent time, oil and gas deliveries from the Middle East will decrease, which will lead to major problems for oil- and gas-dependent countries and also lead to famine as the availability of artificial fertilizers decreases.
An interesting picture soon in a galaxy near us.
You will probably get many right in the end.
What I have seen since 2022 is that no one believes in escalation, then when it comes everyone shrugs but does not believe in continued escalation – repeat.
With each escalation, the war comes closer to us and one day we will face a fait accompli. Then the number of choices has been reduced to two – fight or become a subdued coward.
Now, after all, we have several exciting doors to open before we get there.
I’m starting to get more than just legally angry at China and would gladly see them implode in a big puff of smoke.
Good morning!
1310 KWIA
6 Tanks
10 AFVs
74 Artillery systems
2 MLRS
2 Air defense systems
2120 UAVs
9 UGVs
326 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
10 Special equipment
Slava Ukraini!