Ukraine has once again attacked the Lukoil refinery – Continued high Russian losses

Images and videos from the city of Kstovo show that there is a fire in the refinery and there has also been a large explosion. Read more here, there is a video here, and some pictures here.

Russian losses

  • 1180 KWIA
  • 4 Tanks
  • 6 AFVs
  • 61 Artillery
  • 3 MLRS
  • 2 427 UVAs
  • 206 Vehicles & fuel tanks
  • 3 Special equipment

SLAVA UKRAINI


Updated 11:25

Number of battles compared to some other losses

To see the relationship between the number of battles and other Russian losses, I have cut and pasted some screenshots from Ragnar’s statistics. (Thanks Ragnar). It gets a bit messy but I hope it is clear enough. There is only statistics from February 23, 2023 when it comes to battles, so I have not been able to go further back than that. It also becomes very messy if you look at it per day. Therefore, I have divided it into two time periods. A shorter one per day and then one for the whole period but then per week. What I have compared is losses of tanks, other armor (AFVs), and manpower (KWIA).

Battles and Russian losses from January 1, 2025, per day

Here you can immediately see that at the beginning of 2025, the losses of manpower, tanks, and other armor were highest for the period, while the number of battles was somewhat lower and partly below average. The number of battles does not correlate during this period with the size of the losses in general. However, looking at individual days, you can sometimes see that they coincide (but not always).

Battles and Russian losses from February 23, 2023, per week

Looking at a longer time perspective, it looks a bit different. Between 2023 and until around the end of 2024, the number of battles and the losses of manpower follow each other and we have a correlation. Tanks and other armor also follow the number of battles but deviate a bit into 2024. While KWIA and battles continue to increase, armor levels off and begins to decrease. Towards the end, we can also see in the image above, that battles increase and are above average while armor is low and KWIA is around average.

Here is the same data as above but I have instead overlaid the graphs. It becomes both clearer and at the same time more messy. What you see is that tanks and other armor follow each other well over time, although there are also some variations. Here it becomes even clearer that the number of battles was significantly lower in 2023 than it is now. The losses are also higher than at the beginning of the period but have not followed to the same extent, and both tanks and other armor have instead plummeted. NOTE! The curves are only correct in relation to each other in scale but not in value. The Y-axis values apply only to the number of battles.

Realizing now when I uploaded the images that I should have included a time scale at the bottom, but at the same time, the purpose was more to see how the curves follow (or do not follow) each other.


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86 thoughts on “Ukraine has once again attacked the Lukoil refinery – Continued high Russian losses”

  1. N Slobozhansky-Kursk 0↘️
    S Slobozhansky 3
    Kupyansk 9💥
    Lyman 1
    Slovyansk 3
    Kramatorsk 0
    Kostjantynivka 29💥💥↗️
    Pokrovsk 26💥💥↘️
    Oleksandrivskij 9💥
    Huliaipole 11💥↘️
    Orikhivsk 3
    Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 6

    Sum sectors 104↘️
    Unlocalized 45
    Total 149↘️

  2. “A Russian oil pipeline was damaged during the morning after Ukraine attacked the important port city of Björkö on the Gulf of Finland again, according to the Russian governor on Telegram.

    Russia states that 19 Ukrainian drones have been shot down over the Leningrad region. It is unclear how extensive the damage to the Russian pipeline is. No one is reported to have been physically injured.

    The Ukrainian attacks on Russian targets aim to hit the Kremlin’s war chest. Björkö has been attacked several times, and at the end of March, Reuters reported that at least 40 percent of the country’s export capacity had been halted due to the attacks.”

  3. Well done, that they managed to save the pilot.

    “The American pilot who was shot down over Iran on Friday and has been missing since then has been rescued, confirms President Donald Trump in a post on Truth Social. The information was first reported by Axios, citing sources. According to the site’s information, the operation was carried out by American special forces.

    “We got him!”, writes Trump in capital letters in his post.

    He goes on to describe the operation as “one of the most daring search and rescue missions in U.S. history.” According to Trump, the pilot is injured but will recover. …”

      1. Yes, the article you posted referred to the other one, even though the agent was not revealed until the end:

        Already on Saturday, a first crew member from the same plane was found.

  4. Ukraine asked to ease attacks on Russian oil refineries amid Iran war price surge, Budanov says. “We are receiving certain signals about this,” Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, told Bloomberg.

    https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-asked-to-ease-attacks-on-russian-oil-refineries-amid-iran-war-price-surge-budanov-says/

    Budanov told Bloomberg that Ukraine has received requests from its allies to stop its regular campaign of strikes on oil refineries in Russia due to the price surge.

    “Let’s answer this diplomatically. We are receiving certain signals about this,”

    he said, without providing additional details.

    Budanov did not specify which countries had requested Ukraine pause its attacks.
     
    Ukraine regularly strikes military and industrial targets in Russia with long-range drones, with oil refineries serving as frequent targets. Kyiv considers these facilities to be valid military targets, as they provide fuel and funding for the Kremlin’s war machine.

    Ukraine’s assault on Russian refineries has intensified in recent weeks, with Russia reporting record numbers of Ukrainian drones in its airspace.

    Along with shadow fleet tanker seizures and pipeline damage, Ukrainian strikes have led to a 40% drop in Russia’s oil export capacity, which Reuters described as

    “the most severe oil supply disruption in the modern history of Russia.”

    1. Is it not possible to sell off oil from the seized Russian shadow fleet? If it can be verified as Russian, is it equivalent to seized liquid assets?

      1. I guess it’s probably legally complex. It might be possible to establish that a crime has been committed, but often the owner of the cargo is someone completely different from the owner of the ship, which in turn may be under a completely different flag. If the crew (the captain, for example) is the one who committed the crime, one probably cannot go after the cargo because they are completely different legal entities. 

        It probably depends entirely on who is considered guilty of a crime. Then, as far as I understand, the ship and its cargo can be seized until everything is clarified, and if it’s the cargo owner who is guilty, keep it until any fines, etc. are paid.

        But if it’s a Russian-owned ship, with Russian cargo and a Russian crew, and a crime has been committed where compensation is demanded, it might be possible.

        But as I said, I’m just guessing.

  5. Iran continues with its war crimes, especially bad that they are targeting desalination plants.

    “Two power plants and desalination plants in Kuwait have been damaged in an Iranian drone attack, according to the country’s Ministry of Electricity and Water as reported by AFP. The attack caused extensive material damage and halted two electricity production units, but no individuals were harmed.

    According to TT, the attacks occurred on the night before Easter Sunday, just hours after a government building in Kuwait City was hit by another drone. Kuwait’s military stated that the air defense system was working to intercept missiles and drones on Sunday.

    Bloomberg reports that even the headquarters of the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation has been damaged in a separate drone attack. Israel has also been targeted by Iran during the night, according to the country’s military. At the same time, Iran reports that three individuals have been killed in new Israeli-American attacks, as reported by AFP.”

    1. It’s probably crazy to go against the civilian infrastructure, let’s hope that the USA and Israel can stay away from it, and that it’s just words from Trump.

  6. Many of the ruling party Fidesz’s election posters show Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as Ukraine is portrayed as a threat to peace in Hungary, reports DN.

    For tens of thousands of Ukrainian refugees in Hungary, the propaganda is difficult to endure.

    “It is very unpleasant to experience,” says Ukrainian Maria Trotsenko to the newspaper.

    Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán has never criticized Russia’s war of aggression, instead blaming Ukraine. And during the election campaign, the rhetoric has escalated.

    “It is disgusting to look at the election posters. There is great pressure and very uncomfortable,” says Kateryna Horkun, who fled from Ukraine after a Russian rocket exploded near her house.

  7. Iran’s Central Military Command rejects Trump’s threat to destroy the country’s energy infrastructure if Iran does not make a deal with the US or open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. This is reported by AFP.

    The threat is described as a “helpless, nervous, unbalanced, and foolish act” by General Ali Abdollahi Aliabad in a statement.

    “The simple meaning of this message is that the gates of hell will open for you,” he says.

    Earlier in the day, Trump threatened that “hell will break loose” over Iran if the regime does not meet his demands.

  8. 1/🧵
    https://x.com/anno1540/status/2040676749260853689?s=46

    Ukraine hits Russia’s energy core again.
    Not symbolic. Strategic.
    A Lukoil refinery ~800 km inside Russia reportedly struck overnight.

    While allies signal “pause,” Kyiv keeps hitting the war machine.

    Kyiv hears it. But doesn’t fully comply.

    Bottom line:
    Allies want stability.
    Ukraine needs leverage.
    Oil is Russia’s lifeline.
    And Kyiv is cutting it — one refinery at a time.

  9. “Additional information suggests that Ukrainian drones also attacked the Novogorkovskaya CHP plant in Kstovo, a key energy hub powering industry including the local refinery.”

  10. Ryssland släpper rekordantal dödliga glidbomber över Ukraina, trappar upp luftangreppen. Ryska styrkor avfyrade 7 987 glidbomber förra månaden — över 1 500 fler än det tidigare rekordet i februari, rapporterade Ukrainas försvarsdepartement den 3 april.

    — Kyiv Independent

    1. It’s probably just a matter of time before Ukraine starts to have the ability to shoot down the bombers before they drop their bombs. Saw that they managed to shoot down the shahed at a distance of 500km.

  11. https://x.com/intelnet0/status/2040303067690651890?s=12
    🇮🇷 A massive U.S. airlift is underway, with waves of C-17s and KC-135 tankers crossing the Atlantic toward the Middle East and eastern Mediterranean in what appears to be the largest visible deployment since the war began. The E-4B “Doomsday Plane” landing at Andrews tonight is only adding to speculation of a major escalation.

     

      1. Let’s see what it turns into.

        Now, surely some of Trump’s statements are empty threats, but it’s quite clear now that Iran has to choose between opening the Hormuz or seeing its country destroyed. It has been shown that their air defense is Russian, which is basically zero. Iran cannot defend its infrastructure, but they have the ability to retaliate against their neighbors, and they can probably defend themselves to some extent if there is an invasion.

        It is a high cost to keep the strait closed.  

        1. It’s not so much that Iran has the chance, but the ruling regime has to choose between total war (unless it becomes 🌮, which is not entirely unlikely) or submission. The US has miscalculated in assuming that there are fundamentalists who see death as a better way than submitting to the great Satan.

  12. 🇺🇸 Trump: “På palmsöndagen gick Jesus in i Jerusalem — folkmassorna välkomnade honom, prisade honom, kallade honom kung. Och nu kallar de mig också kung. Kan du ens tro det? Jag menar, jag är i princip en kung. Och ändå kan jag inte ens få godkännande för en balsal. Otroligt, eller hur? En kung. Om jag vore en kung skulle vi göra mycket mer. Jag gör redan mycket, en enorm mängd, men jag skulle kunna göra ännu mer om jag vore en kung.”

    1. It seems like he hasn’t understood that those who call him king do so in a condescending manner because they absolutely do not want him as a king?

      Or have I missed something, is MAGA calling him king now?

        1. He is supposed to be at the center of attention in every situation. Always have a word to say when he sees a microphone.
          Regardless of whether it adds anything. The next day he can contradict what he said the day before.
          I once had a boss who could say about people that “they were filled with their own importance.” An expression that fits Trump well.

        2. It could just be trolling, but when it comes to Trump, one can never be sure. He seems to become more and more detached from reality in some way.

  13. Off-Topic, weather

    Our readers from western Sweden need to hold on to their hats today!

    “The area expected to be hit by the storm Dave moving in over western Sweden during the day seems to be larger than previously estimated by SMHI, reports GP.

    – The low pressure system seems to take a slightly more southerly path, affecting a larger area south of Gothenburg, down to Halland and towards Sjuhärad, says meteorologist Hilda Westberg.

    She says that around noon, strong winds are expected to pick up and gusts of wind may reach storm strength.

    TT reports that local traffic in affected areas will be impacted. For example, Västtrafik and Stena Line announce that they are canceling several departures. Even Länstrafiken in Jönköping warns of canceled departures and delays.”

    1. Negative electricity prices are nice for those of us who pay, at least in the short term, but in the long run it only leads to even more volatile prices as the predictable energy becomes more and more constrained.

    2. The worst part is that the boys’ soccer tournament “Future Cup” in Gothenburg is affected. Our team of twelve-year-olds from northern Greater Stockholm is there fighting. Note: Joke.

  14. Good!
    That Ukraine has increased its kinetic sanctions against the Russian devils as the West wavers and parts of the USA have switched sides.
    The US attack on Iran came very timely for Russia as the economy was on the brink of collapse at the end of February with interest on loans that couldn’t be paid and salaries frozen, but now slowly recovering. Krasnov plays the cards well 🤮

  15. Supplemented today’s post with some graphs on the number of battles in relation to other losses. Difficult to draw any real conclusions since it varies, but still a bit interesting. Or maybe it’s just me and 205 who are interested. 😄

  16. “Scener från Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod-regionen, i Ryssland. Den ryska luftförsvaret försökte frenetiskt att interceptra den ukrainska drönaren men till slut kraschade UAV:en in i målet.”

  17. Off-Topic

    It is not clear if there has been anything strange with the loans, but it’s tough to be so heavily indebted to China.

    “The small island nation of Tonga’s attempt to rebuild the country’s infrastructure four years after the devastating volcanic eruption in January 2022 is slow, writes AFP.

    The problem is money, and according to the news agency, it is partly due to Tonga taking out large loans from China, which it now struggles to repay. It has reached a point where the repayments constitute a crucial part of the nation’s rather modest budget.

    During the first half of 2025, Tonga paid the equivalent of almost 170 million Swedish kronor to China. In the same year, Tonga’s total infrastructure budget was just over 90 million.

    – We could have well used that money for other things, but Tonga has signed a loan agreement, and we intend to pay what we owe, says the country’s Prime Minister Lord Fakafanua.”
    https://omni.se/tonga-har-inte-rad-att-bygga-sitter-i-skuld-till-kina/a/2ppWxl

    1. It is pleasing that Tonga’s prime minister is not blaming the evil Chinese who lent money.

      Of course, I would rather burn the interest money every month on candy, but I have an agreement with the bank that allows me to stay in my house.

      The bank is not my friend, but they have made it possible for my life to look the way it does right now. If we do not pay our loans/interests, society will quickly collapse into some form of anarchy.

  18. If one is to engage in speculation!
    It would be interesting to know what the reactions would be from different world leaders if it had happened that Ukraine had managed to eliminate Putin.
    I dare to believe that most probably would have breathed a sigh of relief, while someone would have cried bitter tears and raged against Ukraine.
    What do you think?

    1. There had probably been some grumbling, but most had probably appreciated it. At the beginning of the war, one was probably more worried that someone even worse would take over. Today, however, I think most Russians would also breathe a sigh of relief and take the opportunity to withdraw from the war and blame everything on Putin.

  19. “Beyond the Kstovo refinery, Ukraine also struck the power plant, keeping it running. Russia’s governor confirmed both hits while blaming “falling debris.” The fire was still going at 5:10 a.m.”

  20. ”Here is the same data as above but instead I have placed the graphs on top of each other. It becomes both clearer and more chaotic at the same time. What can be seen is that tanks and other armor closely follow each other over time, even though there are also some variations. Here it becomes even clearer that the number of battles was significantly lower in 2023 than it is now. The losses are also higher than at the beginning of the time period but have not followed to the same extent, and both tanks and other armor have instead plummeted. ”

    Looking at the overlapping graphs, it is also clear that when the attacks were sharply increasing (up to the middle of the time scale), KWIA also increased significantly, and when the attacks leveled off, KWIA also leveled off or decreased.

    1. Good, clarification!

      Yes, KWIA correlates better with the number of battles, while it has still changed so that the KWIA ratio KWIA/battles is now lower than battles than it was before. This could be explained by what we have touched on a few times, that the attacks now consist of smaller groups. 

      Then you also see that armor has actually increased slightly towards the end despite the decrease in battles. Could be that now they are carrying out slightly fewer, but more extensive attacks.

  21. “Ukraina avvisar kategoriskt alla kopplingar till explosivincidenten nära TurkStream i Serbien, säger utrikesdepartementets talesperson Heorhii Tykhyi. Han säger att det troligen var en rysk falsk flagg kopplad till Moskvas inblandning i Ungerns val.”

  22. “In the Azov Sea, the Russian cargo vessel Volgo-Balt sank. The Russian ship was involved in transporting stolen goods such as Ukrainian wheat. From what we know so far, one crew member drowned, another one is missing, while 9 made it to the coast of the Kherson region, Ukraine, in a lifeboat.

    The circumstances of the sinking are not entirely clear. Some Russian channels claimed that it was sunk by a drone, which would be another successful implementation of Ukrainian sanctions on Russian shipping.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3mir2gjrtys2q

  23. 🔥 A week of hard work for the best border guards pilots of the Phoenix: destroying enemy infantry, artillery, logistics and armored vehicles.”

  24. “❗️Zelenskyy held talks with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa The parties agreed to work together to enhance security and create development opportunities for Ukrainian and Syrian societies.

    They discussed Russia’s war against Ukraine — the Syrian president expressed words of support and respect for Ukraine. There is significant interest in exchanging military and security experience.

    They also discussed food security issues and ways to strengthen it. Both sides expressed readiness for further joint work in the interests of our peoples.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3miqzcgl4hc25

    https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-in-syria-for-talks-syrian-media-reports/

  25. 🔥 “Fåglar av Magyar” förstörde den hemliga ryska terminalen “Spirit-030″. Den nya ryska utrustningen är mer kompakt än de gamla Starlink-terminalerna (30 cm antenn istället för 90 cm), vilket gör den svårare att upptäcka och mer mobil.”

  26. “Armenia’s parliament speaker said on 4 April that a Russian gas price hike would trigger Armenia’s exit from Russia’s military alliance and economic union. The warning followed Putin, citing the gas price gap at his 1 April meeting with PM Pashinyan.”

  27. 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump told Axios the U.S. is in “deep negotiations” with Iran and a deal could happen before Tuesday, but warned of major escalation if it fails.

    ▪️“But then they said they will meet us in five days. So I said, ‘Why five days?’ I felt they were not being serious. So I attacked the bridge.”

    ▪️ There is a good chance, but if they don’t make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there.

    ▪️People of Iran are afraid we are gonna leave in the middle of the war, but we are not going to leave.

    ▪️The negotiations are going well, but you never get to the finish line with the Iranians.”

    1. Hope now that the USA actually discusses with those who make decisions, there have been some different messages from Trump and Iran before.

    1. 👍Baba Yaga? or Vampire, interesting to follow the “shift”, with several unexpected twists, and definitely gives a face to the Ukrainians’ skill in the “drone-filled” battlefield / warfare, as Johan usually brings up. 

  28. 🇦🇲 🇺🇸 USA view the geological and mining potential of Armenia as a strategic asset. Not only military and logistical significance.

    In Soviet times, uranium reserves discovered in Syunik and other regions, may also be rare earth metals.

    — Beefeater

  29. Off-Topic

    A bit ironic that Trump and the USA now seem to boost the sales of electric cars (at least used ones).

    “Buyers have rushed to used electric cars in March. This is shown by figures from sites like Blocket and Carla, writes GP.

    Rising fuel prices, competitive prices for electric cars, rural area subsidies, and an uncertain global situation are pointed out as reasons.

    – It’s a perfect storm for those who want to buy a better used car, says Blocket’s electric car analyst Marcin Stepman.

    During the first three weeks of March, 40 percent more used electric cars were sold than in the same period last year.

    According to Richard Åhlin at Carla, it is too early to say where prices will settle. So far, no clear price changes are visible – however, the cars are selling twice as fast as a month ago.”
    https://omni.se/kunderna-rusar-till-begagnade-elbilar-en-perfekt-storm/a/k00k1v

    1. About Iran, I assume? Will check. But now it is definitely a crucial stage, with further reinforcement on the way and focus on the Strait of Hormuz. 

      edit:  Lukashenko. Yes, saw the intro. Will watch. Otherwise interesting with the US approaching, it would indicate a very weak Russia if Belarus is interested in coming out of its isolation. Not that it affects Russia’s already deteriorated warfare in Ukraine, but another ally to Russia that has almost been overshadowed but nonetheless a very close ally. Perhaps partly populated by a libertarian sentiment with parallels to Ukraine’s liberation.

      1. Yes, it’s all about Belarus, partly about the opposition but mainly about what the USA might achieve, etc.

        If they can get Belarus on their side, it would of course be another weakening of Russia (at the same time, it could also be at risk of being exploited by Russia).

  30. ”The Polish army is stronger than the Russian one.” “In the current state, we would lose the war [with Europe] and it would be a political catastrophe.”

    Captain 3rd Rank (retired) and Russian “turbo-patriot” Maksim Klimov suddenly lost his composure. The host of the Aurora studio clearly did not expect this.

    🎥 Anton Geraschenko🇺🇦

    https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/2040823451024281675?s=20

    1. interesting, I also believe that Europe would win even if I don’t have exact knowledge of Poland’s capacity other than that they are arming like crazy. The question, however, is how afraid of conflict we are? My prejudices tell me that the Poles are not so afraid, but the question is what happens if the Russians go against Estonia? Estonia is too small to defend itself so others must be prepared to help, are we? In the new drone-infested battlefield? Our attitude has always been that if a country in Europe goes to war, we won’t have to do anything because the USA likes to wage war…

  31. I have been on the same track. If Poland were to fully engage in the war on Ukraine’s side, I think it would be enough to push out the Russians.

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