Ukraine update February 20, 2026

By /

Completely hopeless and I thought I had saved this… the short version.

Before we dive into today’s post, has anything happened with the negotiations?

Zelensky has really soured, so hopefully it will crash.

In a previous post, I questioned why the Russian state shut down Telegram around the same time the USA disconnected Starlink for the Russian army in Ukraine.

By the way, Starlink still seems to be disconnected?

I speculated that Starlink was due to Iran since it was close in time, and my guess for Telegram was wild, but now we are circling back to it as we have more information.

Completely blocking Telegram is done because they do not want any horizontal communication at all in Russia, they have previously cracked VPNs, Whatsapp, and all other communication possibilities.

What could be the reason for not wanting citizens to talk to each other?

-serious financial crisis.

-agree to a very bad peace deal in Ukraine.

-palace coup during start-up.

-the army has had enough.

-general mobilization

-operation Baltic in some form.

I hope for one of the first four, but I am worried that it might be the last two.

Why is that?

Because Estonia has just announced that they will defend themselves in case of invasion.

And Germany has just changed Bauer’s infamous prophecy about 2030, which was then changed from 3-5 years to now only 0-12 months.

Someone shouted when Bauer’s idiocy was happening, who was it 🧐

Who wondered if Bauer might even have been bought by the Russians 🧐

We need more information than this to see a trend, but if you remember previous posts, the efficiency of the Russian drone weapon will decrease significantly in the summer of 2026 and beyond as Europe begins to implement anti-drone technology.

Anti-drone technology was something we saw maybe two years ago, and the guess back then was that they would come as a rifle with a drum of smaller interceptors, now RU has an interceptor drone sitting on a rifle.

It’s interesting that they have moved away from all the different countermeasures that tried to disrupt the drones to kinetic interceptors.

When I posted my posts about Operation Baltic in early autumn 2024 that no one read, the guess was that the window RU had to act would be over by the summer of 2026, roughly.

You also know that Ukraine has participated with drone groups in the latest NATO exercises and made a mess of our mechanics. Our guess in autumn 2024 why Europe did not deploy its brigades in the Baltic states turned out to be true – I declared myself an oracle for the fifth time.

Yes, it feels good when my early guesses are right, but you probably already understand that.

Apparently, there is more to it because here comes a DN article about a dry run that completely spun up Europe in the stands.

A Russian and a former senior officer played sandbox games against various countries in Europe and NATO – we suffered a major loss.

https://www.dn.se/varlden/han-spelade-putin-och-overlistade-nato

We know that Russia knows that we are divided, and we know that Russia works 24/7/365 to prevent us from functioning better and being able to make tough decisions.

A decision to deploy forces in the Baltic states must be made by each country’s parliament with a majority, and at that moment, the last paid pro-Russians will reveal themselves.

We also know that Russia knows that currently their drone weapons have a sort of Guderian status and the scale is tipped in their favor, and further, that in 4-6 months the scale will tip back to Europe as we have anti-drone capabilities in place.

(but we still completely lack our own drone weapon)

We also know that Russia has hoarded heavy equipment and that today they have an offensive strategic reserve of maybe 150,000 + Belarusian defense forces + North Koreans + Letter agencies at 450,000 who are all within reach.

We know that they have built up capability against the Baltic states and tried to conceal it.

I have also speculated that Trump/USA would prefer a divided, weak, and terrified Europe, but that remains a speculation for now.

What could happen and when is the door closed?

The door is closed when Europe deploys heavy mechanized forces in the Baltic states under an anti-drone umbrella.

Then ground forces will face each other again, and our NATO doctrine of air superiority becomes relevant (again).

With one exception – the robots.

We will soon have anti-drone capability against slow drones in place, but we do not really have protection against the “Iskander rain,” which currently is likely Patriot, SamP, IRIS, and what else?

We also do not have much of our own robot weapon, even though our air forces serve a significant function.

I still give it reasonable odds, but it requires that we not only have Special Operations Forces (SOF) throughout the Baltic states but also heavy mechanized brigades – until we have that, we will not be able to practically prevent an escalation in the region.

Russia will again mine from a distance, and a swarm of drones will buzz around for a few days before we emerge from the twilight, so being reactive simply will not work.

Proactive is the keyword for 2026.

There are two scenarios – “little green men” in the Baltic states or a full invasion, if Russia chooses to mobilize, they will go for the latter.

Since the Baltic states have chosen not to mine the border again, still argue about the thickness of bunker walls, have built tank ditches that look like small drainage ditches, and have a defense force per country of maybe 6,500 before mobilization, they are still attractive targets.

SE Estonia or NE Latvia are practically undefended, and if Russia decides to conquer a few miles and then go on the defensive – what do we do then?

Small green men are best met with European SOF, which is prepared.

In a full invasion – unless Poland and Germany manage to roll through the Fulda Gap, the Baltic states are lost.

You will see the same as what happened in Ukraine with blown-up bridges, dams, robots, drones, SOF infiltrating, and some kind of domestic militia preceding the attack vectors, only better than in 2022.

Do not make the mistake of thinking that Ukraine will rush to our aid because they will not – for them, Europe is a jackpot in the war.

Also, do not make the mistake of thinking that the Russian armed forces are weak because they now have four years of work experience, and the strategic offensive capability they have built up has been trained by veterans from Ukraine and is traditional – mechanized, artillery, air defense, reconnaissance, and SOF.

Our forces will face a qualified opponent with high access to artillery – and Ukraine takes 80% of its losses from artillery (before the drones).

The Baltic Fleet is of course at sea and lies along the coast of Europe with open robot silos, silent and waiting.

Ships from the shadow fleet have anchored at strategic locations, and you know as well as I do that they have plenty of cassettes with Shahed drones, and that all targets in Europe are logged.

If Europe chooses to go to war, Russia can deliver a significant first strike with the indirect capabilities located around Europe, and for example, our air force is based at 10-15 major air bases in Europe since only Sweden uses road bases.

The same goes for the supplies to the mechanized brigades, missile depots, ammunition production, staff functions, and so on – everything has been logged by Russia during 2022-2025 and today they have the capability in place for a first strike if needed.

We are currently in some kind of eye of the storm – what the USA really thinks about Europe, we can only guess for now, but we know that if Russia could get away with it, they would take the Baltics.

China – USA rumble in Iran is looming.

Xi Jinping fired the entire military leadership – what will China try to do next?

For China, it would be very beneficial if Europe were locked in constant conflict with Russia if they go to war with the USA.

Despite warning all Western governments in early autumn 2024, nothing has happened, but we have the leaders we voted for, and luckily we solved the climate crisis at least.

If we make it through until autumn, then the danger is probably over to the extent that we will then be defensible, and Russia will probably think twice.

Pskov oil depot combated 🧐

Dugin 😶

facebookShare on Facebook
TwitterPost on X


Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!

55 thoughts on “Ukraine update February 20, 2026”

  1. MXT

    Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-02-20:

    • 970 KIA
    • 2 Tanks
    • 6 AFVs
    • 3 Artillery systems
    • 1 Air defense system
    • 551 UAVs
    • 76 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
    • 1 Special equipment

    SLAVA UKRAINI

  4. 205

    Clearly up in the north and down in the south (especially down in Huliaipole). Otherwise an exact match with yesterday’s localized and unlocalized attacks, and thus the total.

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 12💥↗️
    S Slobozhansky 12💥↗️
    Kupyansk 4
    Lyman 13💥↗️
    Slovyansk 12💥↗️
    Kramatorsk 3↘️
    Kostjantynivka 19💥
    Pokrovsk 37💥💥↘️
    Oleksandrivskij 14💥↗️
    Huliaipole 29💥💥↘️
    Orikhivsk 2
    Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 1

    🇷🇺Sum sectors 158🟰
    🇺🇦Unlocalized 79🟰
    Total 237🟰

     

  5. Proxima

    Well written as usual👍
    ÖB, Must, Kristersson, Jonsson, Hultqvist, Rutte most European leaders warn of a Russian attack on NATO in the near future. I believe this is to justify increased defense spending. Additionally, there is shame for Europe having slept for 35 years. It’s about politics – getting citizens to accept this enormous increase in defense spending. In Sweden, the population is in favor of the rearmament (including myself) but it’s worse in other countries.
    My question, which has no answer, is: Why would the Russians attack NATO? Is there any logic in this? No, in my opinion. Now I’m not an expert, 13 months on “Gästrikland” won’t get you far in any war with NATO.

    1. johan No.1

      Good points.

      why is a larger defense budget needed?

      who is NATO?

      is the USA willing to defend Europe?

      spain, italy, hungary, turkey, slovakia – will they send troops to the Baltic states?

      how much does Sweden have available to send?

       

    2. Umlaut

      No. War is probably not imminent, but the pinpricks are ongoing and have been going on for several years, without any serious reaction. This sets the stage for the Russians to test taking an archipelago, and in the next step Svalbard or Narva under the pretext of protecting Russian interests and ensuring that it doesn’t go any further. If Europe starts to grumble, well then Russia could formally annex Belarus or invade Kazakhstan. Since it’s no longer NIMB, the EU can relax and everything returns to the old normal.

    3. MXT

      Also find it hard to believe that they choose to start another front when they haven’t even succeeded in Ukraine. Sure, it might be easier to go towards the Baltics but they also risk ending up with two weak fronts. If reserves are needed for the Baltics, should they take them from Ukraine then and risk having to retreat there? If they seriously engage Europe, there is also nothing stopping us from getting actively involved in Ukraine, as escalation has already occurred.

      Furthermore, even if they have a strong drone advantage at the front, there is nothing preventing us from striking deep. Moscow would be a legitimate target.

      Also at risk of losing Trump, in such a situation it becomes unsustainable for him to continue to flatter Putin.

      It is far too risky for Russia to attempt something so desperate.

       

       

  6. iamwhoiam

    Regarding:
    “One should not make the mistake of thinking that Ukraine will rush to our aid because they will not do that – because they are a Europe involved in the war jackpot.”

    An eventual realistic win-win situation might be if Ukraine offers to support with drone capabilities if the EU/NATO intervenes and actively supports with physical capabilities in Ukraine, such as air defense, aviation, etc.?

    1. johan No.1

      Good to see that you are rejoicing with me.

      These were the signals one received in recent days.

      If Europe now just doesn’t let itself be talked down again, maybe the Russian hydra can be beheaded?

    2. Lasse W

      This negotiation drama has apparently broken down. Perhaps Trump has distanced himself from the entire Ukraine issue. He has taken a lower profile lately. Has Rubio taken over foreign policy? Playing under the covers with Putin was probably not so wise. Perhaps Kaja Kallas’ tough demands from the EU have also contributed to the breakdown.
      What is it they say? Before it gets brighter, it must first get darker.

  8. maggan

    I believe that Ukraine has known this all along. Then, the fact that it is denied, that is a given in my negotiation book, unnecessary to provoke the Americans.

  9. SneakyPete

    Shit also
    It’s Liberation Day in Estonia (or the second of the two whatdoyoucallits) on Tuesday. It’s redder than a red day, and Monday is a half day, i.e. a bridge day. Not a soul will be alert for four days now. Plus, many take a bridge week.

    Moreover, Putte would probably think it’s a perfect day in terms of historical calendar.

      1. CB500four

        Of course, they have the right to defend themselves, strange it would be otherwise.

        However, I believe that the Iranian people do not have much desire to defend the mullahs, so it could end quite quickly if the US plays its cards right.

        Here it is a bit like with Venezuela again that the US is doing the right things, but for the wrong reasons. The US may end up freeing the Iranian people as a byproduct of stopping the nuclear program. If you understand Trump correctly, it’s probably really the oil they are after, but in any case, it could benefit the people.

        What would be worst for the Iranian people in the short term now would be if the mullah regime reaches a deal that Trump accepts and then the US leaves, and the Revolutionary Guard deals with the opposition, that is, the people.

        In the long run, it would be worse if Trump does a Bush and tries to turn Iran into some kind of puppet state, he is historically ignorant, but at the same time, he is not someone with any long-term plans, so smash and grab is probably what applies.

        Now this is the Middle East, so just removing the leadership, blowing up some nuclear facilities and Revolutionary Guard bases, bringing in the Shah’s son, and then slipping away hardly ensures peace in Iran. As in all Muslim dictatorships, there are a lot of internal contradictions, like who is the heir to the prophet, so a civil war is almost inevitable, and a return to pre-industrial times for a couple of decades.

  14. Kaitsetahe

    Social mess – part 2.

    Soc called yesterday…
    they wanted to know if I could make it to work… (yes, I had solved it.. but the problem remains…).. they were so happy – now they didn’t have to think about it and could instead ask me to apply for support for the NEXT month (which of course MUST BE INVESTIGATED)… and submit all “ESSENTIAL” bills – however NO debts….(actually just the electricity bill, and maybe internet… around 1000 SEK…)
    .. which they will calculate, based on the salary I receive this month.
    Here I have tried to explain that this salary money is already earmarked for bills I COULDN’T pay last month… (and since this includes so-called “debts” it’s money that “hasn’t been used” according to soc).
    THEN they can come up with a decision…
    I tried to explain that a bus pass is needed NOW.
    “we have to conduct an investigation first”.

    I can manage. Now it’s a matter of principle… that they should receive a paper hell due to their greed…

    1. MXT

      😆 Snot balls!

      “Donald Trump claims that the Supreme Court has been influenced by foreign interests in its decision to invalidate trade tariffs. – I know some of those involved on the other side, and I don’t like them,” he says at a press conference, continuing: – I think they are real snot balls.”

      https://omni.se/a/16OKke

       

    2. MXT

      “The US government may be forced to repay more than the equivalent of 1,500 billion Swedish kronor to the companies that have borne the brunt of Donald Trump’s tariff policy, which has now been deemed illegal by the Supreme Court. Several media outlets report this. The Supreme Court leaves the question unanswered in its ruling. However, Justice Brett Kavanaugh writes that a repayment process may be necessary, but is likely to cause a ‘significant disturbance’. The issue of repayments will be decided in a lower legal instance. According to Bloomberg, the state may need to repay half of the approximately 340 billion dollars they claim to have collected. Trade lawyer Steve Becker believes that the companies affected by the tariffs have the law on their side. – I believe that companies can be quite confident that they will eventually get their money back. But how long it will take is really up to the government, he tells the BBC.”

      https://omni.se/a/k067rj

      1. CB500four

        Hmm, maybe I’ve misunderstood something, but the companies affected are surely the American companies that have had to import materials from countries subject to tariffs. The rest of the victims are probably private individuals who have had to pay more for goods in the store. Private consumers should also be compensated.

        1. Umlaut

          It will become significantly difficult to compensate private customers unless they have purchased directly from abroad. It will rather be the case that companies will both recover the customs duty and retain the profit from the increased price that is passed on to the end customer.

    3. MXT

      “Wall Street started Friday’s trading in the red. After the announcement that the Supreme Court declared Donald Trump’s tariffs invalid, the stock market turned positive. After an hour of trading, the developments were:

      • S&P 500: +0.7%

      • Nasdaq: +1.1%

      • Dow Jones: +0.3%

      Among individual stocks strengthened by the Supreme Court ruling is Apple. The tech giant’s manufacturing is mostly located in China, and last year’s tariff crisis caused significant disruptions for the company. The stock is up nearly 2 percent. Ahead of the opening, several macroeconomic figures have been released. Core inflation unexpectedly rose in December, according to PCE, and GDP growth came in lower than expected in the fourth quarter. Just under an hour before the figures were published, Donald Trump signaled, through the Truth Social platform, that GDP would be weighed down by the 43-day shutdown last year. Several other earnings reports have also come in. Dropbox exceeded analysts’ expectations regarding revenue and earnings per share in the fourth quarter. The stock is up nearly 2 percent. Applovin is up 5 percent following reports from Bloomberg that the mobile ad tech company is planning its own social media platform.”

      https://omni.se/a/7pdeoo

    4. MXT

      “Donald Trump rages against the Supreme Court’s decision to invalidate his tariffs. – They are a disgrace to our country, he says about the yes-voting judges at a press conference on Friday evening. The president also announces that the USA will impose new global tariffs of 10 percent on top of existing ones, for five months. – The Supreme Court made me even more powerful, says the president, among other things. Trump claims that the tariffs introduced to protect national security will remain and not be affected by the Supreme Court decision, which is linked to another law.”

      https://omni.se/a/L45wrq

  17. MXT

    “Trump preceded poor figures with outbursts on social media

    Donald Trump preceded this afternoon’s GDP report with a warning and explanatory post on Truth Social. “The Democrats’ shutdown cost the US at least two percentage points in GDP. That’s why they’re doing it again, on a smaller scale. No shutdowns! Also, lower interest rates.” “Two years ago” Powell is the worst!”, writes the president. The White House receives macro reports the day before they are released, but is not allowed to comment on the numbers until 30 minutes after they are released. This is reported by Bloomberg. Trump recently published a graph from a job report the day before it was released. GDP rose 1.4 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter. The expected increase was 3.0 percent.”

  18. MXT

    The American inflation unexpectedly rose slightly in December to 2.9 percent on an annual basis, according to the PCE index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure. In November, inflation was at 2.8 percent, which was also the expected outcome this time. Core inflation also unexpectedly rose, from 2.8 percent to 3.0 percent in December. Meanwhile, fourth-quarter GDP growth increased by 1.4 percent on an annual basis, significantly lower than the expected 3.0 percent.

    1. CB500four

      I must admit that I don’t know which match you are referring to, but it was also sad that Canada won against Finland, but Canada was clearly better.

      1. MXT

        Ah, someone is joining in! 😆

        Yes, it was just like when the USA defeated Sweden. They were actually better. 

        Let’s hope that Canada beats the USA, but only if they stop poking at the stone.. puck with their index fingers.

  21. MXT

    “Ukraine has recently liberated 300 square kilometers of territory in a counteroffensive, says President Volodymyr Zelensky to AFP. – I cannot go into too many details, but today I want to congratulate the army and our entire defense forces, he says. The information has not been verified by independent sources. Zelensky adds that both the USA and Russia are pressuring Ukraine to give up territory in Donbas to end the war. Currently, Ukraine controls about a fifth of the Donetsk region, which constitutes one half of Donbas, and almost none of Luhansk.”

  24. MXT

    😄 I wonder if they’ve lost control now. So, the Supreme Court are the lawless ones?

    Freeee faalliiing..

    “Today, the Supreme Court decided that Congress, despite giving the president the ability to “regulate imports”, didn’t actually mean it. This is lawlessness from the Court, plain and simple. And its only effect will be to make it harder for the president to protect American industries and supply chain resiliency.

    President Trump has a wide range of other tariff powers and he will use them to defend American workers and advance this administration’s trade priorities.”

    https://x.com/i/status/2024928034667545067

  25. MXT

    If we pretend that our climate is not in danger, what do you say about more mercury for the people then?

    Yes, great idea, you can tell by the name that it will make us all faster!

    Seriously incomprehensibly idiotic!

    “The US Environmental Protection Agency EPA has decided under Donald Trump to weaken the regulation of emissions of mercury and other toxins from coal-fired power plants, as reported by American media. The decision is just the latest in a series of Trump’s attempts to roll back environmental legislation in favor of the fossil fuel industry. The law being repealed was enacted in 2012 under Barack Obama and has reduced mercury emissions by almost 90 percent. Environmental organizations criticize the decision and argue that it risks public health for those living near coal-fired power plants.”

     

    https://omni.se/a/7pdWmw

Leave a Comment

Scroll to Top