Starting with a review of the past week and then my hope for Europe and the EU, if I have time to get there.
You have read about my concerns regarding the Baltics since the autumn of 2025 and now this year. August is our vacation month and a good time for Russia to come up with some mischief. Sometime in October the ground won’t hold until it freezes for winter – everything is always weather-dependent and you can thus pinpoint high-risk months. At best, it has probably been considered entertaining reading.
What has happened during August is an increased hybrid war from Russia against us – those of you who have followed the posts know that drone overflights, sabotage, drones and missiles flying from RU into Europe have increased sharply during the summer. In addition, RU has sent surface combat ships and a submarine from the Northern Fleet into the Baltic Sea.
Various leaders have repeatedly promised that if Russia raises the level against us, Europe will respond forcefully. Poland has been at the forefront of this, but many countries in Europe have said the same. You can quickly google all the statements.
Most recently, the UK chose to allow Ukraine to use English-made long-range drones to bomb Moscow, and the new Prime Minister Burnham said that we like that – a clear signal if we ever saw one.
First came “Europe’s defense plan” from the newspaper Bild, which quoted General Pingrey, NATO in Europe – it discussed our response if Russia either starts lobbing drones or missiles into the Baltics or Poland followed by a ground invasion of the Baltics.
“We will soap up Kaliningrad and then we will fly over all Russian assets in the Baltics, and in the nearby area in Russia, until they are shot down and finish by strolling back into eastern Baltics when you are dead.”
Plain talk, quote, little chance of misunderstanding – read for yourselves.
Then we spent the whole last week with an enormous show of force, around Kaliningrad we had all soft capabilities in the air, AWACS and EW together with first strike packages as many as about 50 aircraft, including our Gripen from Sweden.
We also flew over; Moldova, Romania, Poland, the Baltics, the Baltic Sea and Finland.
I think it is obvious with everything everyone says and has said – not hard to put the puzzle together if you have followed this somewhat. Russia has some mischief in the making and the Baltics are well positioned in the near term. Whether it is sabotage, drones, green men or a full attempt to invade, we do not yet know.
We chose to bare our claws and make it clear that then Kaliningrad goes – this is the first time we have scraped the chalkboard so we have very clearly changed our behavior pattern.
I have tried to look for information about Russian transports to Kaliningrad, Belarus, or Pskov – but find nothing. I have also scanned if the Baltics or Finland have raised readiness, find nothing either. So it is not entirely clear to me exactly what in the near term prompted our show of force. Kasatanov escorted an LNG ship into Kaliningrad but it does not feel like imminent war with LNG?
Maybe they planned to dock at a European port and then blow up the ship?
If you have read previous posts, you already know that Russia can, without warning, move two army corps from the northern front with about a day’s notice that after 10 hours can cross the border into the Baltics. Ukrainian GUR says that the North Koreans’ task is to guard the northern border so our assessment that their task is to free up RU units that become available for other things is absolutely correct.
This was unannounced and not a pre-announced exercise in northern Finland, Gotland or western Baltics – it was to lick the border to Kaliningrad with a very powerful first strike package and put full effect on the EW weapons so Russian air defense just flickered.
The pressure on Europe internally is enormous now – politically, sabotage, terrorist attacks, protests, psyops and this autumn there will probably be some financial crisis if it can be triggered.
So far we have shown strength – even Gripen was circling around Kaliningrad. Flew down from Källinge.
The other thing you may have noticed – the media writes nothing, the politicians are silent, the generals are silent.
This is VERY GOOD.
We hit this quite well in our posts, we must say, and Europe has responded proportionally – so far very good.
There is more -.
Now in the coming week it is time to see what Trump/USA say and do because Putin has definitely called him. The first operation against Kaliningrad was US-led and the second Europe-led. The US participated with its sharpest capabilities.
-Will Trump demand that the US urgently moves those capabilities to MENA?
-Will Trump fire Pingley?
-Will Trump accuse Europe of something made up again and impose tariffs?
-Will Trump demand that the US leaves NATO today?
Russia probably won’t jab at Sweden because they don’t want to make us even angrier than we are today. However, they want a change of government. Not because the new government will be pro-Russian but they want to get rid of this one because it can’t get any worse, they think. There you probably have the reason for the silence towards us.
What is going on in parallel is a very ambitious attempt by the US to politically topple Ukraine – Fedorov, NABU, no patriot interceptors.
That Laura Loomer, Elon Musk and all other pro-Russian MAGA legends have suddenly become Ukraine’s best friends is a bright red warning light.
Now Fedorov went out and praised Elon Musk, who immediately praised Fedorov back. Earlier Fedorov asked Elon Musk to shut down Russian Starlink in Ukraine which Musk immediately did so this has been planned for a long time.
Fedorov has had support from the US in quite a lot of technical matters for some time now, and he is soon to travel to the US.
He managed to totally burn himself in Ukraine which is excellent, but the US has previously tried to get Zalizhny on their plan – Zalizhny refused.
The plan is to remove Zelensky in a forced election – that is the US plan.
Trump tried all through 2025 to totally discredit Zelensky and now they have turned to popular people for support.
The US has also held back the interceptors so Russia can hit with its ballistic missiles. They did this before when they held back the strike aircraft so FAB became the Russians’ go-to weapon when the artillery was knocked out.
Shameless but that’s how it is – the US gives Russia the opportunity to attack energy infrastructure and water so the citizens will get angry and vote for Fedorov in a forced election.
Just like in Sweden, Russia has not bought Fedorov at all, but everything is better than keeping Zelensky. Fedorov, however, has seen a chance to have good relations with the US and become president of Ukraine – he feels that he will continue the war, win and then get the reward he should have. Good that the citizens told him to go to hell.
So it is not possible to get in NK ballistic missiles in a week, so everything has been planned over a long time and China has built up the Russian production lines.
We might be at the point where this becomes the EU’s baptism by fire – so far it looks good.
Will there be more – absolutely.
I can, however, think that we are making it difficult for ourselves – instead of protecting the border in the Baltics, we are flying everything we have around Kaliningrad. Both work, but we assume that Russia prioritizes not losing Kaliningrad, which is a qualified guess. If we defend the Baltics, we don’t need to make any assumptions at all.
From now on, it is crucial that the military and civil administration are alert; for this to work, we need to anticipate Russian actions and not get it wrong.
Will we succeed in doing that – probably.
I think we have seen an attempt by Europe to stand up?
Not sure if you have followed it, but the Russian Northern Fleet is out and about, so Norway has now stated that they will respond to everything with overwhelming force – for Norway to give up the oil billions and start talking about war, Svalbard probably needs to be threatened, as they don’t seem to care about anything else.
For the first time in 4.5 years, we have seen a determined Europe that has also shown its teeth – whether that deters Putin remains to be seen.
Now to part two, which will come later if this goes well.
Putin has been given trust that is time-limited and above all, he has promised results. Something he absolutely has not promised is a European air campaign that wipes out the last he has before he himself gets going – Europe has turned up the pressure cooker in the Kremlin a few degrees.
The USA, with Trump at the helm, is in a bad spot; they have made enemies of everyone and are stuck in the Iran war. Their national debt is skyrocketing, so they are completely dependent on it being bought. Yes, they have a couple of aces up their sleeve, but there are probably many layers to this onion.
One is that in MENA they have borrowed money from Western banks – now they are not selling oil, and their large oil installations are damaged for billions.
The second is Japan, where the USA has had to step in and prop them up, because if there is a financial crisis in Japan, it spreads directly to the USA.
China is just waiting to try to topple the petrodollar, so whatever they can do to worsen the misery, they will do.
China itself is a huge bubble, but they have a dictatorship and can implement measures a bit more decisively – however, it is a big deal economically for them if Europe stops buying Chinese goods.
In the best of worlds –
Ukraine continues with what they are doing and the asymmetric warfare increases pressure in Russia; at some point, they will no longer be able to hold together and the country falls into internal power struggles/civil war/popular uprising – something like that.
Over time, Russia is split into about a dozen new countries, Belarus chooses the EU, and Kaliningrad becomes demilitarized.
This is what Ukraine is striving for and it is not unattainable at all – probably even likely if Europe just stops holding Ukraine back.
It wouldn’t be entirely bad for us if Ukraine chooses to fight the Russian Baltic Fleet at the quay or sinks the Kasatanov, for example – if they managed Novorossiysk, they can manage that, but we have repeatedly asked them to calm down with the Baltic Sea.
The USA will probably withdraw back into its shell soon; that would be a logical reaction if they do not very soon achieve military success in Iran or go to war with China. Trump apparently has some room to maneuver, but he is not unreachable at all – November will be a first litmus test.
If we stop buying Chinese goods, China will not do particularly well at all. China is a damn puppet master behind half of the misery in the world now. But they have also incurred enormous costs with Russia, their military expansion, their geographic expansion, and their manufacturing industry. They are a bubble that can explode in a green puff of smoke with pressure on the right points. If the EU invokes the CO2 footprint on Chinese products as too high and closes the door, we will have come a long way.
EU and Europe today consist of 27 countries with 27 governments that all think differently – that is a weakness but also a strength. For example, it guarantees that we do not go full dictator.
If we can just ride out the Russian beaver, we never needed to go into full war economy because we let Ukraine take the whole hit.
Geographically, together with Ukraine and new prospects for the EU, we are well over 500 million, and we have developed trade agreements with many countries that have oriented themselves towards us.
Europe has every opportunity not to take over as a violent world police at all but through trade and strength do a lot of good.
If we then turn to Africa, we have a whole new market where we can lift them in a fair way (emphasis on fair) that becomes a win-win. We buy what sells and they buy what we sell.
Mine the border with Russia again – never try to let them in the warmth again.
Our relationship with the USA should remain good, but with a USA that has crawled back into its shell, it will be a little different.
Support our friends, push for good trade, and there is a great chance that peace in our time can spread with a strong but friendly EU.
This is where I want to get to, but we have a way to go; showing our teeth now was a good first step.
For me, it is indisputable that a far advanced Russian plan for escalation against us was not at all free fantasies.
Yes, you don’t read about it in established media just as no one has directly written about our huge show-of-force last week, but that does not mean it is not what is going on.
Also, a reminder not to forget to rush to a paid subscription to my Substack – perhaps the most important decision you can make this year if you read the posts and over time feel that everything has not been unfounded speculation. After all, it has been recurring over 4.5 years because we are just ahead of the curve.
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