Ukraine has attacked one of Ozon’s logistics centers in Orenburg – Russian losses

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During the night, Ukraine carried out a drone attack on the city of Orenburg, hitting one of Ozon’s logistics centers. The exact extent of the damage is not yet possible to determine, but according to Kyiv Independent, there are photos and videos showing smoke rising from the warehouse. This is the second time Ozon has been attacked and it is the second night in a row. Ozon is the main competitor to Wildberries, Russia’s largest e-commerce platform. According to Kyiv Independent, Ukraine’s military has not yet confirmed that they carried out the attack. Orenburg is located in southwestern Russia near the border with Kazakhstan, about 1,000 kilometers from the Russia-Ukraine border.

In addition to Ozon’s warehouse, a large fire also broke out in a warehouse near Saint Petersburg, which spread to an area of at least 82,000 square meters in the Kolpino district, southeast of central Saint Petersburg. Near the fire was, among others, one of Ozon’s warehouses, which may have been the main target. Read more here.

Russian losses

Russian losses in the war in Ukraine continue to remain at truly high levels, and this time we also find an aircraft on the list. Probably the plane that was at the airport that was attacked.

  • 1310 KWIA
  • 26 AFVs
  • 69 Artillery systems
  • 1 Air defense system
  • 1 Aircraft
  • 1925 UAVs
  • 8 UGVs
  • 415 Vehicles & fuel tanks
  • 4 Special equipment
  • 3 Cruise missiles

Ukrainian General Staff morning report

“Operational update at 08:00 on August 23, 2026, on the Russian invasion

Glory to Ukraine!

The 1,642nd day of the Russian Federation’s full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine has begun.

A total of 254 combat engagements were recorded during the past day.

Yesterday, the enemy carried out two missile attacks with a total of six missiles as well as 98 airstrikes, during which 329 guided aerial bombs were dropped. Additionally, the occupation forces used 11,859 kamikaze drones and conducted attacks on settlements and our troops’ positions.

The settlements Korenok, Ulanove, Batjivsk, Volfyne, Jastrubstjyna, and Luzjky were subjected to hostile artillery fire. Additionally, an airstrike was conducted in the Sumy region against the area around the settlement of Potapivka.

During the past day, the defense forces’ aviation, missile units, and artillery attacked three areas where enemy personnel were concentrated, four command posts for unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as one command and observation post.

In the directions of Northern Slobozhanshchyna and Kursk, our defenders stopped 13 enemy assault attempts during the past day. At the same time, the attacker carried out an airstrike with three guided aerial bombs and 67 shellings of our troops’ positions and settlements, five of which were with rocket artillery.

In the direction of Southern Slobozhanshchyna, Ukrainian units repelled 21 enemy attacks. The occupation forces attempted to advance in the area around Izbytske as well as in the directions of Okhrimivka and Volokhivka.

In the direction of Kupyansk, the enemy attacked twice against Zahryzove.

Attempts to penetrate our defense lines were repelled in the direction of Lyman, where the occupation forces attacked nine times in the area around Lyman and in the directions of Stepove, Shyikivka, Kopanky, Novoselivka, and Drobysheve.

In the direction of Sloviansk, the enemy conducted seven assault attempts in the areas around Kryva Luka, Zakitne, and Ozerne as well as in the directions of Mykolaivka and Rai-Oleksandrivka.

In the direction of Kramatorsk, the occupation forces attacked three times towards the settlements of Minkivka, Yurkivka, and Tykhonivka.

In the direction of Kostiantynivka, 25 attacks were registered. The occupation forces carried out assault attempts in the areas around Kostiantynivka, Illinivka, and Mykolaipillia as well as in the directions of Novoselivka and Stepanivka.

In the direction of Pokrovsk, our defenders stopped 24 attacks. The enemy was active in the areas around Bilytske, Serhiyivka, Molodetske, and Kotlyne and carried out assault attempts in the directions of Novopavlivka, Shakhove, Kutcheriv Yar, Novyi Donbas, Shevchenko, Myrne, and Udatne.

In the direction of Oleksandrivka, the occupation forces conducted four attacks towards the settlements of Andriivka-Klevtsove and Netiaivka.

In the direction of Huliai-pole, the occupation forces attacked 15 times in the areas around Hirke, Charyvne, Yehorivka, Vozdvyzhivka, Rivne, Dobropillia, Dolynka, and Verkhnia Tersa.

In the direction of Orikhiv, our defenders stopped two enemy attempts to advance towards Pavlivka.

In the direction of Dnipro, the enemy made no assault attempts during the past day.

In the directions of Volyn and Polissia, no signs of the enemy forming offensive groups have been detected.

Ukraine’s defenders continue to systematically fight the enemy and effectively resist on all front sections.

The Russian occupation forces’ personnel losses amounted to 1,310 people during the past day. Additionally, 26 armored fighting vehicles, 69 artillery systems, one air defense system, three missiles, one aircraft, eight unmanned ground vehicles, 1,925 unmanned aerial vehicles, one operational-tactical missile system, 415 vehicles, and four units of special equipment were neutralized.

Join the defense forces! Together we shall prevail! Glory to Ukraine!”

SLAVA UKRAINI

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100 thoughts on “Ukraine has attacked one of Ozon’s logistics centers in Orenburg – Russian losses”

    1. Umlaut

      Don’t Russians have any work they need to go to? I’m thinking about these enormous traffic jams that seem to take more than a whole weekend to get through.

  3. MXT

    ** Fedorov decries corruption in Defense Ministry, doubles down on calls for elections.
    Former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov detailed what he described as widespread corruption within Ukraine’s Defense Ministry in a wide-ranging interview with Channel 24 released Aug. 22, while reiterating his call for Ukraine to prepare for elections even as war continues. **
    https://kyivindependent.com/fedorov-interview-aug-22/

    2. MXT

      ** Zelenskyy just said elections now could “destroy” Ukraine, He said it would be “a tsunami for the state which will split Ukraine.” And that the country’s focus should be on staying united, ending the war and preserving an independent Ukraine. He said Ukrainian forces have already reclaimed 900 km² this year & the priority now is the soldiers taking back Ukrainian land, not a political campaign that could divide the country while they are still fighting for it.

      He also said Ukraine’s Defence Ministry asked him to secure political approval for Starlink to operate over Russian territory for Ukrainian military purposes, and that he had initially been told SpaceX was on board. He then took the proposal directly to Trump and secured more than a billion in European financing. But at a later meeting, Trump told him Musk had refused and, according to the president, said: “You told me that Musk had confirmed it.” He said Musk regarded the idea as an “escalation,” although subsequent lobbying by Trump, Macron and others has produced “different, more encouraging feedback.”

      At the same time, Zelenskyy said Russia and China are developing their own alternative to Starlink, with Moscow believing it could be ready by December 2026. Ukraine is already testing a separate European project. It seems Kyiv is actively preparing for a world in which it cannot rely indefinitely on Musk’s network.

      There was also a major development on air defence. He said Raytheon is discussing the creation of a Ukrainian missile for the Patriot system, with Ukrainian company Fire Point selected as the potential partner and an initial technical meeting already held. That matters because the supply problem is severe, according to the figures he gave, Ukraine received 675 Patriot missiles in 2023, 364 in 2025, and is currently projected to receive only 264 in 2026, despite Russian missile attacks increasing.

      On Fedorov, he described a serious breakdown between the Defence Ministry and military command, saying the two sides had reached the point where they were effectively only discussing matters in his office. Despite that, he said he offered Fedorov four different positions to remain in the team. All four were rejected. “Well, that is his choice.”

      And on Russia’s next manpower push, he said Moscow plans another 300,000 troops, many likely destined for the Kostiantynivka–Sloviansk–Kramatorsk axis. His response was uncompromising: “We will destroy them. Putin will lose them all.”

      This was at a meeting with journalists this weekend. Thanks for reading 🔥

      **
      https://x.com/CaolanReports/status/2091435860877054312

      1. Umlaut

        Seems more and more like Fedorov is a “musk personality.” Competent and driving forward in the right environment and areas, an asshole in others.

  4. Pehr

    Good morning
    Off topic Iran
    “An Iranian cyberattack forced a British nuclear power plant to shut down for four days in July, according to The Telegraph.
    The attack is described as the most successful of its kind ever.
    British authorities are, according to the newspaper, tight-lipped about exactly which power plant was affected, but it is described as relatively small. The attack is said not to have posed any direct danger to the public, nor caused any major problems for the British power supply.
    According to The Telegraph, the purpose of the attack may have been to show that Iranian hackers have the skills and capacity required to shut down critical societal functions in the UK.”
    https://omni.se/a/xrwdyl

    1. Pehr

      Good question. He may not have received a codename yet but has only been recruited directly by Krasnov.
      The unit was up for discussion the other day and the news bears repeating. The USA will probably soon switch to bow and arrow.

  6. Pehr

    Nice moving images from the party in Orenburg.
    “The Ukrainian military is reported to have carried out a drone attack on Orenburg in Russia during the night of August 23. According to Russian Telegram channels, a logistics center belonging to Ozon, Russia’s second largest online store, was hit. At the same time, a large fire broke out at a warehouse in St. Petersburg during the night of August 22. The fire spread over at least 82,000 square meters, near an Ozon center. The cause is still unknown.”
    https://www.expressen.se/tv/nyheter/varlden/eldinfernot-i-ryssland/

  7. Pehr

    ”The Nordic leaders Mette Frederiksen, Jonas Gahr Støre, and Alexander Stubb are on site in Ukraine on Sunday. They are scheduled to meet with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and participate in meetings about the Ukrainian defense.
    The Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen says that Ukraine has an urgent need for more air defense. She promises continued Danish support and praises the Ukrainian soldiers, writes TV2.
    – Few would have managed what the Ukrainians have done, she says in a statement.
    Norway’s Prime Minister Støre also emphasizes that Ukraine must receive more help to be able to shoot down Russian ballistic missiles.
    – That is the major vulnerability, and that is what Zelenskyy and his staff emphasize all the time, he says according to NRK.
    The Finnish President Stubb also promises to continue supporting Ukraine.”
    https://omni.se/a/3pXee0

  9. MXT

    **✈️💥 Defense forces attacked Hvardiyske airfield for the fourth time in the last 2 months, – Dnipro Osint The hit was recorded on the runway, where the Russians probably carry out the accumulation and launch of UAVs directly during launches.

    · At 14:00 in the direction of Odesa, strike UAVs were recorded from the direction of occupied Crimea.

    · At 16:27, mobile groups were reported to be working at Hvardiyske airfield. The attack lasted for some time and later NASA satellites recorded fires on the territory of the airfield.

    ❗️The consequences recorded in the pictures may indicate the destruction of Russian UAVs directly during launches. **

    https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mtqbt66inl2o

  13. MXT

    Off-Topic, Trump and the tariffs

    Trump continues to sabotage cooperation with what should be the USA’s closest allies.

    “The negotiations between the USA and Canada have collapsed, and now both Donald Trump’s tariffs and Mark Carney’s retaliatory tariffs are being imposed. Although the USA is a bigger, stronger, and richer country, it may be the neighbor to the north who emerges from the conflict with its reputation intact, write analysts for the New York Times and The Atlantic.

    NYT’s Matina Stevis-Gridneff is impressed that Mark Carney has done what no other US ally has done so far, namely to stand up to Trump when he comes with his tariff threats.

    Carney has a lot to lose, she writes, but at the same time he seems determined to bear the costs.

    David Frum writes in The Atlantic that the Trump administration’s only big idea about Canada – that the country sooner or later must yield to Trump’s demands – is simply wrong. Wars cannot only be decided by who can cause the most pain, but also by who can endure the most pain.

    “Trump’s failure to accept that truth is the reason he lost the Iran war – and why he is losing his trade wars.”

    Both Mark Carney himself and the resistance to Trump are widely popular in Canada. But Trump is waging a tariff war that “few Americans support, under leadership most Americans reject, to achieve results that virtually all Americans think are pointless – if not completely crazy,” writes Frum.”
    https://omni.se/analyser-trump-inleder-annu-ett-krig-den-svagare-sidan-kan-vinna/a/8p7VmW

    “Canada cannot accept the USA’s terms for a trade agreement, says Prime Minister Mark Carney according to AFP.

    – We cannot accept what they have offered, and we will not give them what they have asked for, he says.

    Instead, Canadian retaliatory tariffs will be introduced from September 8.

    Earlier in the day, Carney said he will match the USA’s trade tariffs ‘dollar for dollar.’

    During the night Swedish time, the negotiations between the countries collapsed and the USA is therefore imposing 50 percent tariffs on certain Canadian goods.”
    https://omni.se/kanada-ska-matcha-trumps-tullar-dollar-for-dollar/a/zOQe1b

    “There is now a trade war between Canada and the USA. This says Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney after announcing that the country is imposing its own tariffs on American goods in response to Donald Trump’s 50 percent punitive tariffs.

    – You are at war when you are attacked. We have been attacked, he says.

    Canada’s tariffs will be introduced on September 8 and Reuters writes that the relationship between the neighboring countries is now further deteriorating.

    The US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who participated in the failed negotiations, says that the USA will take action against Canada’s countermeasures.

    – They have always had a good deal, and they could have gotten an even better deal, but they did not want it, he says to Fox News.”
    https://omni.se/carneys-ilska-mot-trump-vi-har-blivit-attackerade/a/GxnX6x

    1. Pehr

      Canada may, in the event of an expansion, impose export tariffs on goods that the Krasnov administration has exempted, such as oil and gas.

  14. Peter Den Större

    Has No1 stopped worrying about Russian activities in the Baltics, and is that scenario simply no longer relevant? If it still is, what are we in the West doing to plug the holes for Putin? Volunteers? Fundraising on the blog?

    1. MXT

      The threat against the Baltics probably remains, while the hybrid war against Europe has increased.

      I believe the best protection against Russia is for Ukraine to defeat them. For my part, I therefore continue to donate to various organizations and volunteers supporting Ukraine.

      As a soldier, I have probably passed my best-before date, so going and lying by the Russian border in the Baltics with a rifle probably won’t do much. It would probably also lead to the company I run having to shut down. Then I think continuing to work and donate is the smartest thing for me personally.

      If I were younger and unemployed, I would probably have gone to Ukraine a long time ago.

      Fundraising on the blog is an interesting idea, but when it comes specifically to the Baltics, I’m not quite sure where to send collected money. A joint fundraiser for Ukraine would be easier in that case. There are many channels to go through.

      Something I have considered is collaborating with NAFO Sniffing brigade:
      https://www.help99.co/patches

      But I suspect we might have too small an audience here on the blog to manage to raise enough for a vehicle.

      Johan No.1 might have some ideas.

       

  15. Pehr

    ”In a few weeks, there will be an election in Sweden, and in the following months, elections will also be held in several other countries around the Baltic Sea. This increases the risk that Russia will try to influence in various ways. This is the view of Estonia’s Minister of Defense, who identifies the upcoming period as particularly vulnerable to hybrid threats such as sabotage and influence attempts.”
    https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/estlands-varning-risk-for-rysk-paverkan-under-valet

  17. MXT

    About as if Russia hadn’t already done that..

    “Putin threatens new attacks on economic targets: ‘They have opened Pandora’s box'”

    Ukraine’s attacks on Russian e-commerce giants like Wildberries and Ozon have enraged the Kremlin. Russia’s president Vladimir Putin accuses Ukraine of having “opened Pandora’s box” through its attacks on economic targets.

    “They can expect a response aimed at their most sensitive economic sectors,” he says according to Reuters.

    The attacks on the online stores’ warehouses and continued assaults on Russian oil facilities are hitting the Russian economy hard. Ukraine’s attacks aim to weaken Russia’s ability to finance the war.
    https://omni.se/putin-hotar-med-nya-attacker-mot-ekonomiska-mal-de-har-oppnat-pandoras-ask/a/K8eX94

  18. fedtmule

    If the increasingly desperate Putin decides to escalate the hybrid war or even attempts something more overtly aggressive, for example using force to prevent boarding of ships in other states’ territorial waters, etc.,
    then what many of us have suggested would be a “low-hanging fruit” to only allow a very selective and severely limited access to the Baltic Sea passages. I hope and believe that all concerned states, especially those around the Baltic Sea, have already developed action plans for this together with countries like the United Kingdom and France.
    A response to escalating Russian hybrid attacks could be to retaliate in the same spirit. One example could be to use Soviet-made naval mines or mine models used during World War II and place a small number of these where Russian ship traffic passes, preferably in Russian waters, and when something “happens” … we express our regrets while shrugging and flatly denying it. The area is literally teeming with OXA and duds from both the Soviet occupation and the world war, especially since the Russians are not exactly known for either their motivation or thoroughness in clearing and removing such explosive relics and remnants, so accidents can happen sometimes.

  19. johan No.1

    Can’t respond under a thread post.

    The Baltics are probably the highest risk ever?

    Europe showed its teeth and Russia has seaworthy vessels from the Baltic Sea fleet out and about + what they have brought in.

    If units start moving, our force posture didn’t work, or it did its job – we’ll see.

    I think we should have more troops in the Baltics, not less, but apparently that’s real life..

  20. johan No.1

    Fedorov does not give up – is completely sure that the USA has reached him.

    He is not wrong in substance but he does not grasp the bigger picture, probably due to inexperience.

    Zelensky is right.

  22. Pehr

    Off topic 🇹🇼
    “Taiwan’s president Lai Ching-te emphasized the importance of standing up to China when he visited a memorial site for fallen Taiwanese soldiers over the weekend, Reuters writes.
    – Our will to stand united and defend national sovereignty and safeguard peace across the Taiwan Strait must never waver, he said, stressing that the country must never ‘give an inch.’
    The memorial site is located on the island of Kinmen just off China, and Reuters describes it as a sensitive island on the front line. In 1958, the Taiwanese territory was attacked by China in what is called the second Taiwan Strait crisis.
    China regards Taiwan as part of its territory and has labeled Lai Ching-te a separatist.”
    https://omni.se/a/j0pxWz

  23. johan No.1

    Wildberries must be insolvent now and the loans blown?

    Then they switch to Ozon?

    Should have the intended effect on the banking crisis if not too long?

      1. fedtmule

        Of course, since the raffle is an ongoing and continuous campaign that will not end until Russia has completely thrown in the towel.
        I was more thinking about whether there are any other corporate chains or similar that might accelerate a bank collapse or economic implosion.

        1. Pehr

          Google AI:
          Next targets for economic collapse?
          If the goal is to accelerate a Russian bank collapse or structural economic implosion, there are several sectors and corporate chains beyond the oil refineries (which are continuously repaired and attacked again) that analysts point out as vulnerable:
          1. Yandex Market and other e-commerce
          After Wildberries and Ozon, the Russian tech giant Yandex (through Yandex Market) is the third major pillar in the country’s digital infrastructure. Their distribution chains and warehouses are just as unprotected and capital-intensive.
          2. The major Russian food giants (X5 Group & Magnit)
          Russia’s largest retail chains, which own Pyaterochka (X5 Group) and Magnit, rely on enormous, centralized distribution centers outside Russian major cities.
          Effect: If these were taken out, not only would the banks financing them be affected, but it would create an immediate shortage of goods in Russian cities, further driving up inflation.
          3. Railway hubs and rolling stock (RZD)
          Russian state railways (RZD) are the backbone of both the Russian war economy and the civilian heavy industry.
          Effect: Russia is already suffering from severe shortages of ball bearings and spare parts for locomotives and wagons due to sanctions. Attacks on rail yards, train maintenance depots, and logistics terminals hit the banks’ largest industrial borrowers hard.
          4. Telecommunications and data centers (MTS, Megafon, Rostelecom)
          The Russian mobile and internet operators are heavily leveraged and have great difficulty importing Western server and network equipment.
          Effect: Targeted drone attacks on large data centers outside Moscow and St. Petersburg would paralyze Russian banks’ digital transaction systems and create panic in the financial market.

          1. maggan

            Sometimes AI is not so dumb. Hopefully the Ukrainians check out your suggestion list.

            But maybe they don’t dare, because then ryz will respond with the same means as above 🙂

          2. MXT

            Several good suggestions! The food giants might have the most effect, but the question is whether it might lead to protests in the West.

            The railway, on the other hand, can be justified by the fact that military equipment is being transported, and Russia has already attacked Ukraine’s railway and train stations from day one. It’s probably my favorite on the list. It will indirectly affect everyone.

            The question is whether Yandex also sells anything that can be linked to the military.

            2. Pehr

              The Russian bastards still need to learn the meaning of FAFO.
              Moscow can withdraw from its illegal invasion of its peaceful neighbor at any time.
              Go for the full monty.
              As Jay usually says. What the future holds for the Russian bastards will make the 90s look like an episode of Teletubbies.

  25. johan No.1

    Did you hear that the Ministry of Finance is going to convert savings accounts into ownership in state-owned companies/banks.

    Then when the citizens have zero kronor, they sell their shares for 1/10 of the value.

    The elite buy up and have taken over the state companies at a 90% discount.

    They say there’s never a good crisis, right?

  27. johan No.1

    Yamal Cross remains, Kaliningrad, the Baltic Fleet, nuclear missile silos, the Kremlin, Putin’s palace.

    There is still a lot left 😀

    Over in the Far East, Frunzenskaya, FSB, GRU, SVR.

    Take the damn frozen oligarch money.

    Freeze the 90% they never froze.

    Stop visas for Russians to Europe.

    Stop buying LNG and oil.

    —

    we haven’t even started putting pressure on Russia yet 😐

     

    1. maggan

      Putte’s palace is probably just a waste of robots? No strategic value except that it consumes half of Ryz’s available air defense. Let it stand.

      1. johan No.1

        Let’s see where this ends up 😀

        maggan,

        If Ukraine sends drones against Putin’s various palaces, he will deploy air defense there and weaken elsewhere.

        Then it becomes a reputational loss for Putin, I don’t know when the right time is anyway, and the turning point is whether such actions unite the country or show that the leader is weak.

        Those sneaky Russian bastards because suddenly it explodes but EVERYTHING that makes Putin look weak and vulnerable seems to trigger a DNA process among Russians that makes them go for the throat.

        Europe has done absolutely EVERYTHING to prevent this from happening and Trump has gone even further, but now it seems Ukraine no longer cares.

  30. johan No.1

    Yes, they have, for a long time 😀

    They begged on their bare knees that the USA would not intervene.

    They have been warning for over a year that they are next in line.

    Now they have understood, in plain terms, that they are expected to manage for two weeks before we help them.

    From the Baltics, there is no shortage of warnings.

     

  31. johan No.1

    Saw that the question was asked if I had ideas on how to support now above.

    Simple – send me money via Swish and there will be peace 👍

    Now Europe has actually opened the tap with the money, the frozen Russian funds are probably on the way?

    I think it is important to maintain awareness still because politicians are definitely a fleeting gas.

    The big difference one could make is probably to join and become the spearhead in Ukraine, where there is still an acute shortage.

    If we fail to balance this and we end up in war, we will of course have to do our part automatically later but we are not there yet.

    We can also vote correctly as long as possible but in Sweden the Ukraine war does not seem to be affected by what we vote for unless some party blue-lies but we do have the voting records from the parliament to rely on?

    One can also, as an expert in an area, go to Ukraine, they probably need nurses, doctors, electricians, technicians and such?

    Then above all one can contribute by developing the next generation of weapons – important. My knowledge is that pulling the pin and throwing a hand grenade is out of date 😐

    The winter will be hell for them so generators are probably good support?

  32. johan No.1

    Apparently, it is possible to reply to the posts and end up under those from PC but not on iPhone, then I end up at the very bottom.

     

    2. Pehr

      Have you tried restarting Safari or using another browser?
      Restarting the phone?
      Sometimes I have experienced that it is not possible to type and the page just “scrolls up.” Then I have simply closed the page and reloaded it.

      1. MXT

        It happens to me sometimes as well, but then it has always been an ad that has frozen. Pages stand and load but go nowhere, and then it is an ad that does not seem to load, but it is just blank.

  33. johan No.1

    It’s probably mostly Proxima who is interested,

    Posted yesterday.

    It seems like the submarines left the quay a few weeks ago because A8 Poseidon has been circling in the Baltic Sea for a few weeks.

    Then a destroyer, a frigate (may have nuclear weapons), and a submarine entered the Baltic Sea from the Northern Fleet. Possibly the frigate left again.

    Now four of the sea-dangerous Kalibr surface ships from the Baltic Fleet are out and circling in the Baltic Sea.

    No announced exercise, far beyond a normal level.

    Europe thinks so too because we are also out and circling in the Baltic Sea with all sorts of things in response to that.

    —

    It’s a bit difficult to get a good article in the media, you have to rely on small flashes and piece together what is at the quay and out at sea.

    Is it important – in a period where everyone is now warning of a Russian escalation in the near future with different levels of escalation, it is reasonably important that Russia has a large part of the available surface combatants and submarines at sea.

    —

    They are definitely behind with ground defense in Kaliningrad; they intend to mobilize also in Kaliningrad when it gets going but then as the defense of the enclave – today it is therefore relatively undefended.

    Large amounts of troops have not been brought in either, but they have started to train with air defense and coastal missile batteries in Kaliningrad.

     

    1. Proxima

      The Russians want to protect the shadow fleet. But I am not impressed by what they are showing. The submarines cannot be submerged nearly as long as the Swedish ones, for example. No, in this case the Russians have porridge in their muscles.

  34. Pehr

    ”Russia and Belarus are once again sending migrants into the EU – through dug tunnels along the border with the Baltics. ”The border area is controlled by the Russian FSB. Nothing happens without their approval,” says Estonia’s Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur.
    Image by Therese Larsson Hultin
    Image by Joakim Ståhl
    Therese Larsson Hultin
    and Joakim Ståhl (Photo)
    Published 10.46
    “It is a ‘very dangerous era we are entering,’” Hanno Pevkur states when we meet in Stockholm. Estonia’s Minister of Defense is on a quick visit and we have not yet started talking about the new wave of migrants from Belarus that picked up this spring. The statement instead concerns the drone incidents that have occurred in several European countries in recent weeks.

    Drones have flown into Romania, Latvia, and Germany – where the latter was an attack drone loaded with explosives. It was found at Leipzig airport, which is an important transport hub for NATO.

    – We do not know if the Leipzig drone was Russian, that is being investigated, says the Minister of Defense and emphasizes that it is important to keep a cool head at this stage. Russia has increased the threat against NATO, but at the same time some of the drones that have entered NATO territory earlier have turned out to be Ukrainian, either having flown off course or having been jammed – disrupted – by Russia.

    Sabotage against defense companies

    – We are also investigating the latest incident in Estonia, on the night to Saturday, where three people carried out an attack against a defense company, says Hanno Pevkur.

    He refers to a suspected arson attack against Milrem Robotics in Tallinn, which among other things manufactures unmanned ground vehicles used by Ukraine.

    Photo: Joakim Ståhl
    Hanno Pevkur says that Russia “has no limits” when it comes to sabotage attacks. That the Russian security and intelligence services FSB and GRU have an “unlimited toolbox” and that they have even “murdered people in Europe.”

    Drones as small as flies

    In recent years, there has been much talk about hybrid warfare and that Moscow constantly tests NATO countries. Infrastructure is mapped, reactions to events are noted. States like Russia, China, and Iran can even hire local capabilities to carry out attacks and sabotage. Events that are extremely difficult to protect against according to Pevkur, who has previously been both Minister of Justice and Minister of the Interior and belongs to the liberal Estonian Reform Party.

    We are sitting in a hotel restaurant overlooking Hötorget. Hanno Pevkur points to the place and gives an example. Imagine that 1,000 people have gathered out there, and then a person appears with a small drone in their pocket.

    – It can be as small as a fly, that’s how small they are today. And it carries two grams of explosives. Then it is easy to kill a person, and it is very difficult to stop, says the Minister of Defense and comes to the statement that opened this text.

    Our part of the world is entering a new era. A very dangerous one.

    Tunnels under the border

    In that era, it also includes that Russia and Belarus exploit migrants to destabilize the EU. Or as Hanno Pevkur puts it: using migrants as weapons in a targeted operation.

    In the past five months, people from countries such as Afghanistan, Somalia, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh have once again tried to get from Belarus into the neighboring countries Latvia and Lithuania.

    On August 10, Latvian border police had stopped a total of 9,521 people. In Lithuania, the number was just over 1,000. Estonia does not share a border with Belarus but has sent about a hundred border guards to Latvia to assist their colleagues.

    – In both Russia and Belarus, the border area is controlled by the Russian FSB. Nothing happens without their approval and when you have hundreds of people digging tunnels from the Belarusian side…

    Are they entering the EU with the help of tunnels?

    – Yes, they dig tunnels into Latvia and Lithuania to cross the border. It is organized in the same way as we saw in Ceuta. Unfortunately, we see that the Belarusian and Russian governments use migrants as weapons. They exploit people who just want a better life.

    Pevkur was previously the leader of the Estonian Reform Party. He was succeeded by Kaja Kallas in 2018, who is now the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs.
    Pevkur was previously the leader of the Estonian Reform Party. He was succeeded by Kaja Kallas in 2018, who is now the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs. Photo: Joakim Ståhl
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    Are those who are discovered sent back, or what happens to them?

    – According to European law, it is enough that you cross the border with one foot and say “asylum,” then the process must start. If they do not get asylum, they are sent back, says Hanno Pevkur.

    – But they are not stupid, so they have no documents. Moreover, several countries claim that they are not their citizens when we try to send them home.

    According to the Minister of Defense, many of the migrants that Russia previously sent across the Russian border towards Estonia believed they were on their way to Sweden. That was what they had been told by the Russians: On the other side of the river lay Sweden – and if they just got across it, they had arrived.

    Want to store ammunition in Sweden

    Since Russia launched its large-scale war against Ukraine, relations across the Baltic Sea have deepened. Today, cooperation between the Nordic and the three Baltic countries is almost a given. This applies within the EU and NATO – but also NB8, which is a cooperation between the eight Nordic and Baltic countries on everything from defense and security to economy and trade issues.

    Hanno Pevkur comes directly from a meeting with his Swedish colleague, Pål Jonson (M), and he would like to see the cooperation deepen further, not least in the defense area. What he primarily sees a need for are practical issues, such as simplifying legislation so that weapons and equipment can more easily be transported across land borders.

    Then Sweden could, for example, pre-position certain Swedish equipment in Latvia where a Swedish force rotates. But also give Estonia the opportunity to easily store ammunition on Swedish soil, something the Minister of Defense welcomes.

    Why would you want to have ammunition here?

    – It is normal military planning and is about gaining strategic depth. Ukraine is large, there is a natural geographical depth – if you have something in Lviv and need to get it to the front, there is a distance and a rear area to work with.

    – The Baltics are small, the same applies to Finland. Storing ammunition in Sweden would be a way to gain strategic depth. It is important logistics and planning, says Hanno Pevkur.

    Hanno Pevkur also meets Saab’s CEO Micael Johansson during the visit to Sweden.
    Hanno Pevkur also meets Saab’s CEO Micael Johansson during the visit to Sweden. Photo: Joakim Ståhl”

  35. johan No.1

    Kemi Badenoch is the British Mohamson.

    Like Mohamson more and more, with some reservations regarding what is election positioning and actual politics.

    bought a Star of David to do my part.

    Christians here in the Dominican Republic are quite strong antisemites, everyone kind of makes the sign of the cross when they see me 😐

    1. Pehr

      I also think that Andy Burnham seems promising. Badenoch and Mohamsson as well. By the way, I am apparently going to vote for the Conservatives according to Bulletin’s election compass, which exclusively takes into account the parties’ economic policies’ effect on one’s personal finances… ☺️

      The image you posted, however, depicts a pentagram (It can stand for freedom, communism, magic, military power, or the five senses. Pointing down, two points up, Baphomet’s seal is often associated with satanism). The Star of David is six-pointed.

  36. johan No.1

    It is in that situation we should continue boarding the shadow fleet, right?

    Or are they all legal now?

    Waiting half and half for some Chinese naval visit in the Baltic Sea 😀

  40. johan No.1

    Proxima – is the Baltic Sea navigable with reinforcements to the Baltics if we feel that RU can pull the trigger?

    Yes, when we have shot them away it is, but what about today?

    Don’t know the range of the coastal missiles but they probably last a bit longer?

    1. Proxima

      The Visby corvettes have Robot 15. They will also be equipped with air defense missiles shortly. Sundsvall and Gävle also have Robot 15 plus torpedoes. The Germans can support with submarines and frigates. So there are things to be intimidated by.

      1. Proxima

        The best thing is if the Sound and the Belts are closed to Russian traffic at the same time as Ukraine cuts the Trans-Siberian Railway at a few well-chosen points. Then the Russians will probably have to pack up and go home.

  41. johan No.1

    Saaremaa is probably next?

    If we follow any escalation, they must get robots and drones ashore there if the fleet has now left the quay?

    Of course, that is done with a submarine, shadow fleet, or fishing boat.

    Mining Suwalki again or flying drones over the gap requires zero preparations.

    Just thinking out loud here about what the steps look like IF Russia has any plan.

  43. Pehr

    Off topic Krasnov’s failure in Iran.
    “A Pakistani delegation is traveling to Tehran on Monday in an attempt to restart the stalled peace talks. But with only a few days left until the six-month mark of the US-Iran war, there are few signs that the low-intensity conflict is about to end.
    Image by Erik Bergin
    Erik Bergin
    Published 20:20
    On Monday, a 60-day deadline expired for the US and Iran to negotiate over Iran’s nuclear energy program and the opening of Hormuz. The deadline passed without any sign of a new agreement.

    Shortly thereafter, Donald Trump’s Truth Social account came back to life. First, the president threatened to bomb the US ally Oman. Shortly after, he declared that several countries’ coastlines around the Strait of Hormuz were “new American territory.”

    The next statement came just before the weekend when Trump promised new economic sanctions against Tehran, an “economic D-Day.”

    “THE TOUGHEST ECONOMIC MEASURES EVER AGAINST ANY COUNTRY!” Trump wrote about Iran, which has lived under US sanctions since 1979.

    Trump’s new threat of economic sanctions on August 20.
    Trump’s new threat of economic sanctions on August 20.
    The reception was lukewarm, even on the conservative editorial page of the Wall Street Journal.

    “The world has to see it to believe it,” the newspaper wrote dryly on Saturday.

    “A world-changing event”

    With the six-month mark of the war on Friday, August 28, within reach, there are few outward signs that anything is underway that could end the conflict soon. Analysts and Middle East experts say they are unaware of any ongoing negotiations about Iran’s nuclear energy program. A Pakistani delegation led by Army Chief Asim Munir is traveling to Iran on Monday to explore the conditions for new talks, Islamabad announced over the weekend.

    “Nothing indicates that Iran has lost the will to produce a nuclear weapon,” says Richard Nephew at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs to Politifact.

    February 28, 2026. Smoke rises after an attack in Tehran. The war is underway.
    February 28, 2026. Smoke rises after an attack in Tehran. The war is underway. Photo: AP
    Shortly after the US and Israeli attacks in February, Trump claimed the war was won, Iran’s navy sunk, and the country’s nuclear energy capacity destroyed. This was the same message the president and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gave after the so-called twelve-day war in June 2025. Trump has continued to claim over the summer that the US has essentially won the war.

    Yet it continues. Although low-intensity and manifested mainly through higher energy prices and growing frustration over the state of affairs in the White House.

    Threats of new bombings, canceled attacks, Pakistan-led ceasefire talks, port blockades, and a 60-day agreement to continue negotiations have not brought Washington and Tehran closer to peace.

    After half a year of war, the Iranian regime remains in power. No agreement on Iran’s nuclear technology to replace what Trump tore up eight years ago exists. And the level of oil shipments through Hormuz is still a fraction compared to before the US and Israeli war.

    The US defense budget of over 800 billion dollars was more than enough to start the war. But so far it has proven insufficient to end it.

    At the same time, millions of barrels of oil from the Persian Gulf are off the market. The full effect of this has not yet been felt worldwide, according to oil geologist Art Berman.

    “This is potentially a kind of world-changing event, even if we manage to solve the political challenges,” he told Fox News.

    August 18, 2026. Iranians commemorate the memory of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the early stage of the war.
    August 18, 2026. Iranians commemorate the memory of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the early stage of the war. Photo: Vahid Salemi AP
    Show more
    But more than being a deadlocked conflict, Middle East analysts note, the war risks marking the beginning of the end for the US-dominated order in the Middle East that has prevailed since the 1990s. In the same way that the Suez Crisis of 1956 retrospectively broke British and French influence.

    “Israel and Iran have a shared interest in keeping the Middle East in a state of lawlessness and violence, and the US has few ways to hold back either of them,” writes the American foreign affairs magazine Foreign Affairs in an analysis.

    The promise: Stop the “endless wars”

    And the closer the congressional election in November comes, the bigger a political problem the unpopular conflict is for the Republicans among Americans. According to an average of several polls, 55 percent of Americans are against the war.

    A poll from August 18 shows that more and more believe the Iran war will last a year or more.

    Like much else in American politics, support for the war varies greatly by party affiliation. According to Quinnipiac University’s July poll, 89 percent of Democrats opposed the US war, while 74 percent of Republicans supported it.

    Donald Trump ran in 2024 on taking the US out of the “endless wars” and lowering household costs. Now the president seems to have few effective methods to end the war that has raised the gasoline price in the US by over one dollar per gallon (just under 3.8 liters) since January.

    Despite Republican attempts in Texas and other states over the past year to redraw electoral maps to secure a victory in the House of Representatives election, the Democrats appear to have a real chance to take over the chamber in November, according to polls. Partly because Democrats have also begun redrawing maps.

    The Senate also does not seem out of reach.

    August 13, 2026. Oil residues line a beach at the Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Persian Gulf that has been mostly closed since March.
    August 13, 2026. Oil residues line a beach at the Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Persian Gulf that has been mostly closed since March. Photo: Amirhosein Khorgooi/AP
    Show more
    Although foreign policy has historically weighed comparatively little in American elections, wallet issues have often weighed much heavier. With expensive gasoline, tariff wars raising import prices, and inflation hovering around 3.4-3.5 percent this summer—well above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target—the economy is a real problem for Republicans seeking re-election, election analysts note.

    Over all of this lies the conflict in the Persian Gulf that the White House seems to lack the tools to end.

    “I see no way out of this. The administration has fundamentally misunderstood Iran’s leaders,” says a US official involved in US Middle East policy to Politico.”

    https://www.svd.se/a/bOawqB/halvar-med-irankrig-men-ingen-vag-ut

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