When the war comes October 15, 2025

At least Carsten Breuer’s catastrophic analysis from last summer has been thrown out by the Germans themselves – Russia intends to attack a NATO country, and it could happen at any time.

Until now, everyone except those of us who read the thread believed it would be 2028 at the earliest.

I think they read the posts on johanno1.se because there were a lot of visitors from Germany recently with names like “spy-chief-ralf” and “sauerkraut55.”

https://kyivindependent.com/russia-ready-for-hot-confrontation-with-europe-at-any-moment-german-intelligence-head-warns

The USA was more than fashionably late to the game, and I began to suspect on good grounds that they were trying to bring Europe back into a Russian cold war again to sell us security at five times the price, again.

That they finally realized their mistake is probably the most likely explanation rather than trying to force us in any direction through 5D chess manipulation.

We are behind on the curve, but that also means that we can hold out longer than the countries that have already shifted to a war economy – like Russia.

We should shout ourselves hoarse over Europe not being prepared, and the USA has the same problem, the opponents have patiently prepared for this war for 15-20 years already.

China just choked off the rare earth metals so we can’t finish building our war material, this is something we have warned about repeatedly for a very long time.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-chinas-new-rare-earth-export-controls-work-2025-10-10

But that’s not the same as throwing up our arms and saying it’s over. What our politicians’ tardiness will result in is many fallen and endless tragedies just like in Ukraine, but we are now approaching the beginning of our time’s global conflict – and we will fight with what we have.

If Ukraine before the summer of 2026 manages to get Russia into a full revolution, maybe the wildfire can be extinguished, but they are just a small country doing the best they can – we hope but cannot count on it.

The other option is if the USA and Europe manage to economically collapse China, but that is also less likely as China is starting to shift to a war economy and at some point the country will have a tolerance it wouldn’t otherwise.

The chessboard is not overly difficult – on the dark evil side stand China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and a few others sitting on the fence, and they are engaging in interstate wars with us.

On the good side stand the USA, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, and maybe India (we’ll see…). So, I dare not write the white side because it could be perceived as racial profiling.

Europe’s rooks and bishops are Ukraine. USA’s rooks and bishops are Europe, Japan, Australia, South Korea, and others.

Europe has finally seemed to accept that Ukraine stands between us and a lot of death.

USA seems to have finally understood that it was a bad idea to push their allies just before a major war.

I think we can say that the pieces on the chessboard are now set up at least – that’s how far we’ve come.

Now it’s time to forget old sins even if Trump is still running his pump-and-dump on the stock market.

And it’s time to accept that we are behind on the curve and will have countless casualties because of it, but that we will emerge victorious in the end because the free world has been doing it this way for hundreds of years and it has worked.

If you accept that the game can soon begin, it will be much easier to put everything into perspective because Russia and China are on an increasing curve of global escalation.

This could be a Russian operation, for example, because no group with a survival instinct would carry out a massacre of taxpaying citizens, it’s not good business for them at all.

We have some distinct steps in this global escalation–

  • The hybrid war against Europe has almost started, hasn’t it?
  • Twilight phase – an increased pace before open war, we’re not there yet.
  • Economic warfare – it’s in full swing, and the upcoming stock market crash probably won’t be fun.
  • Operation Blackout, which I’ve been warning about for a year, is coming – now Ukraine and Russia are already cutting off the lights for each other in October, which I thought was a bit early but there will be sabotage against our power grid this fall and winter – I swear by it.
  • Proxy wars – they are already in full swing, Thailand-Cambodia, Pakistan-India, Israel-Gaza, and so on.
  • Finally, interstate wars between the two players in the chess game, the good and the evil side – we are likely headed there.

We in Europe are reactive, historically the USA has been able to be preventive if they are in the right phase.

Anyone now saying that Russia or China is not a threat, or that China cannot be defeated – be a little cautious with them.

Also, be cautious with hating on domestic politics even if one is always upset with their country, and one can be because almost the entire West has mismanaged for a long time.

I know I lose some followers on substack when I write that the USA is doing something good against China because they are focused on domestic politics and would rather see Trump go down than the West win.

I have been considered a bit of a “crying wolf” read when I have warned and suggested that the only way to hit the brakes is if Ukraine gets a big win and Russia gets Revolution 2.0.

Then my posts describing what we are facing are branded as “dystopian” and “pitch-black.”

USA and Europe prevented this, and now drone swarms fly over Europe with components we have sold to Russia, which they bought with income from the oil we still buy from Russia in 2025 – links were posted the other day.

I have always painted this path we are now on as a worst-case scenario, but if we do not act, we will get there – now we have arrived because we did not act in time.

I have also been clear that tardiness today will lead to fallen sons and daughters later, we will likely get there too.

I am in the Caribbean on a job that will last 2.5 years and will not be personally affected, but I think tardiness should be punishable. Now I accuse no one, but Russian defectors are involved and influencing so these non-decisions are made.

Very, very many experts, debaters, and war professionals are now making a general mistake in saying that Russia is losing the war because they are not taking territory in Ukraine.

They have no clue and are overpaid fools because Russia’s role in this is to unlock Europe and try to advance positions.

If they can create an open wound in any form in the Baltics, they have reached there.

And they must be there before the summer of 2026, I guess because after that, the window is closed to try to escalate into Europe.

Russia is quite satisfied with the situation today and is preparing for the next step.

People like Carsten Breuer who told us to sit tight until at least 2028, one can wonder if they have taken the Russian money?

Russia is now increasing in Ukraine with robots and drones, and the mech battle has begun.

They have a drone weapon aimed at Europe and they have an offensive strategic reserve against Europe located in the area east of the Baltic states, they have sneaked in these units over time.

The window to escalate to the Baltics with “little green men” or higher levels is set for the summer of 2026.

Ukraine has just shot down a cruise missile with a bit of vampire, so within a year, we probably will have a defense against Gerans, Gerbera, and the robots even in Europe.

The next mistake these same incompetent experts make is to then believe that everything we see flying over Europe is to scare us.

No, it is war-preparing, and IF Russia chooses war, drone swarms will knock out all our high-value targets in a first strike because we are reactive.

Russia is now experimenting with coordinated drone swarms.

I am now leaning towards there being a global conflict because Ukraine’s chances of being able to defeat Russia before they increase towards Europe are too small – but never zero 🧐

When Russia is done, it’s over to China.

We have thus reached the starting point of our time’s global conflict, Ukraine has probably delayed it by 2.5 years due to its audacity to defend itself.

Expect power outages, stock market crashes, and little green men in Estonia at least.

Like these

The remedy for the Russian disease remains for us in Europe – help Ukraine help themselves to defeat Russia so they become 10 new beautiful, free, and prosperous countries.

Help Belarus gain its freedom so they come over to us, 10 million Belarusians are manageable.

Make Kaliningrad demilitarized and autonomous.

Then our war is over.

After that, we will provide air support, brigades, and navy for the US power struggle with China in Southeast Asia, but it will not be a people’s war like WW1 or WW2.

As you can see, we still have a pretty decent silver medal to aim for even if the gold is out of reach.

We prefer to avoid Nylander.


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6 thoughts on “When the war comes October 15, 2025”

  1. The War in Ukraine – Russian losses 2025-10-15

    • 1070 KIA
    • 3 Tanks
    • 2 AFVs
    • 43 Artillery systems
    • 2 Anti-Aircraft system
    • 389 UAVs
    • 141 Vehicles & Fuel tanks

    SLAVA UKRAINI

  2. 👍 Brilliant analysis. Clear and concise in its message, building on the foundation that has been laid here at JohanNo1 for a while now.

    The USA and Europe prevented this, and now drone swarms are flying over Europe with components we have sold to Russia, which they bought with income from the oil we still buy from Russia in 2025 – links were posted the other day.

    A large number of Russian companies in the Russian military industry remain unaffected by sanctions:

    🇷🇺Unsanctioned: Tube & rocket artillery systems, ammunition, propellants, military-grade explosives, UAVs, launchers for long-range cruise missiles, armor plates, personal protection, simulators for military aircraft, parachute systems, aircraft engines.

    https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4046688-hur-publishes-data-on-weapons-manufacturers-half-of-companies-in-russias-technodinamika-holding-remain-unsanctioned.html

    Additionally, we have China, and why it is good that the USA is taking on the country:

    🇨🇳🇷🇺Chinese companies actively supply Russia with fiber optic cables, batteries, electronics, chips & microcircuits, trucks, machine tools, and laser technologies. [Moscow and Beijing] are stepping up activities aimed at weakening the West and dividing the transatlantic alliance. https://x.com/coxoxoffoxoffic/status/1978039973371691097?s=46

    Allow me to Swish SEK 5 for today’s JohanNo1!

    • Some overall decrease with declines in several front sections but a strong increase in Pokrovsk which drove up Donetsk and mitigated the overall drop which ended up at 182(190) of which 163(170) were distributed along the front as below. Source: AFU’s morning report on the last 24 hours.
    • North:

      • N Slobozhansky-Kursk 5
      • S Slobozhansky 16💥
    • Luhansk:

      • Kupyansk 9💥↗️
      • Lyman 11💥↘️
      • Slovyansk(Siverskyi) 6
    • Donetsk:

      • Kramatorsk 2
      • Kostjantynivka(Toretsk) 14💥↘️
      • Pokrovsk 69💥💥💥
      • Oleksandrivskij(Novopavlivka) 26💥💥
    • South:

      • Huliaypillia 0
      • Orikhivsk 5
      • Dnipro/Prydniprovskij 0↘️

     

  3. Agree with 205 on the analysis. We are truly living in a rather “exciting” time right now.
    These power-hungry old men, I’m starting to get so tired of them. Retire and grow tomatoes or something.

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